Fantasy football is a game based on statistics, but statistics without context will tell lies. Great fantasy analysis should incorporate a blend of statistical and film analysis, which will be the goal of this column every week.
I will watch the condensed version of every game this season and highlight a handful of the most important developments from my game reviews each week for fantasy managers to consider moving forward.
Note: With the fantasy football playoffs upon us, there will be more of a focus on (likely) widely available players who could make a sizeable impact over the final few weeks of the season moving forward.
Sincere McCormick
Two weeks ago, McCormick was just some random guy on the Las Vegas roster whose sole purpose was to provide insurance at a position behind Ameer Abdullah while Zamir White and Alexander Mattison were recovering from injuries. Now he may be the potential featured back for the Raiders. Who is he, and how did this happen? Perhaps most importantly, is he just the next version of White, who served as a key piece on many fantasy championships squads in 2023?
It is not as if McCormick came out of nowhere. The two-time Conference USA Offensive Player of the Year accumulated 4,438 total yards and 35 touchdowns during his decorated three-year college career, even posting consecutive 1,400-yard rushing seasons. He went undrafted in 2022 and saw his dream of playing in the NFL potentially dashed before it started not long after that when he tore his ACL and LCL during mandatory minicamp.
McCormick was part of the final wave of cuts at the end of the last two preseasons, so he did not see his first regular-season offensive snap in the NFL until Week 12 - about a couple weeks shy of three years after his final touch as a college player. He showed enough in that loss to the Broncos to convince head coach Antonio Pierce he needed more work and has continued to build a stronger case for himself over the last two weeks.
Among running backs with at least 25 carries over the last two games, McCormick ranks fourth in explosive run rate (7.4%), fifth in explosive run yardage (46), seventh in yards after contact per attempt (2.78), and tied for 10th with the likes of David Montgomery, James Conner, and Najee Harris in missed tackles forced (five).
The best example of a Week 14 run from McCormick that incorporates all of those analytics came on this 29-yard run in the second quarter against the Bucs. He shows the anticipation and ability to set up cornerback Jamel Dean (No. 35) for a juke before showing impressive contact balance on a tackle attempt from safety Christian Izien (No. 29) and adding 15 more yards to the run. His vision and anticipation were present again on this 11-yard toss play midway through the third quarter.
No one is saying the Raiders will be an easy watch over the final three weeks of the fantasy season, especially if Aidan O'Connell (knee) is forced to miss any time. Even if O'Connell does not miss any action, there is limited touchdown upside for every player in this offense. Is there also some level of McCormick having fresher legs than everyone else? That is a real possibility.
With that said, it is hard to ignore the fact McCormick handled 15 of the 16 carries and saw three of the five targets from Las Vegas running backs in Week 14, which is a continuation of a theme we have seen play out over the last three weeks: an expanding workload for McCormick. It also does not get much better for a running back than Falcons-Jaguars-Saints during the fantasy playoffs. The last two of those teams rank inside the top 10 of most forgiving defenses against running backs.
Assuming the Raiders are more concerned about next year and developing McCormick and less concerned about reintegrating Mattison into the offense, McCormick should make for a great flex or low-end RB2 option during the fantasy postseason.
Kendre Miller
Two words haunted Miller throughout the first 1 1/2 years of Miller's pro career: "injuries" and "doghouse." To be fair to former head coach Dennis Allen, it had to wear on him that the player drafted to complement Alvin Kamara was rarely available to him (eight games in 2023, two games in 2024 before his firing on Nov. 4). Nevertheless, sending Miller to injured reserve for a second time this season a couple of days earlier to punish him for a minor hamstring injury was unnecessary.
Interim head coach Darren Rizzi promised Miller he had a clean slate upon his return from IR. Week 14 was the first time Miller had to take advantage of his freedom. While 10 carries for 32 yards and a touchdown is not the stuff of legend, it was more how the TCU product was involved that should have fantasy managers moderately excited about what is ahead.
Following a three-and-out on the team's first possession in Week 14, Miller checked in for the first time on the second drive and capped off the following possession with an 8-yard score. While the scoring play was designed to take advantage of the attention Kamara would draw from the defense being in motion, it was not hard to be impressed by Miller sidestepping the first tackle attempt behind the line of scrimmage and driving the pile the final five yards for his first TD of the season.
There were at least two other rushing attempts that should have caught offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak's eye against the Giants. Coaches love to see their running backs turn a poorly blocked play into positive yardage, as Miller dodged linebacker Patrick Johnson (No. 57) in the backfield before dragging safety Tyler Nubin (No. 31) for about three yards on an 8-yard gain. This 9-yard run in the third quarter showcased some of Miller's ability to set up a defender and power through contact.
How effective was Miller in his first game back? Among running backs with at least 10 rush attempts last week, Miller finished in a tie with Chuba Hubbard for second in the league with six missed tackles forced, even though Hubbard handled 16 more carries. Miller's 0.60 missed tackles forced per attempt led the same group, while his 38 yards rushing after contact illustrates just how much work he was able to do on his own on a day he ran for 32 yards.
Much like McCormick above, there isn't much to love about the offense Miller is attached to right now. The Saints' wide receiver corps consists of Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Cedrick Wilson and Kevin Austin. The defense has given up an average of 389.5 yards in four games under Rizzi. Derek Carr could be out for the season with the hand injury he suffered in Week 14. Long story short, low-scoring games should be the expectation.
This should mean a heavy dose of the running game (or more work than New Orleans should expect Kamara to handle himself). The Saints also have little incentive to run Kamara into the ground with their playoff hopes hanging by a thread. Along with needing to see what it has in Miller, New Orleans could easily opt to put more on his plate over the final two or three games and ensure the 29-year-old Kamara, who is on pace for a career-high 292 carries, enters the offseason healthy.
However, that exact scenario seems unlikely, so Miller should be stashed and not used again in fantasy until there is evidence of an expanded role.
Ray-Ray McCloud
Even in a league where players rise from anonymity to fantasy managers' wish lists in a matter of weeks, there was little reason to suspect McCloud would play a key role in Atlanta's offense this year. After all, he was a 2018 sixth-round draft choice who entered this season on his fourth team in seven years. The Falcons planned on him doing little outside of contributing on special teams in 2024, seemingly acquiring him as insurance in case Rondale Moore's durability issues struck again. (Spoiler alert: they did.)
However, McCloud's path to relevancy was still blocked. Drake London was the team's clear alpha receiver, and Darnell Mooney joined the fray in free agency with a contract with an annual average value of $13 million. Kyle Pitts would also be unlocked in new offensive coordinator Zac Robinson's scheme. There was also talk about Bijan Robinson getting similar usage to Christian McCaffrey. McCloud was supposed to be the fifth-best option at best in an offense led by a quarterback coming off a torn Achilles.
For the most part, London, Mooney and Robinson have lived up to or exceeded expectations. Pitts has not, which is the opening McCloud needed to be relevant. He has taken advantage, ranking third on the team with 72 targets and tied for third in catches with Robinson with 53. As someone who checks in at 5-foot-9 and 190 pounds and has survived in the league largely due to his ability to return kicks and punts, it should come as no surprise McCloud wins with short-area quickness and intelligence.
His biggest play of Week 14 came on a 27-yard catch-and-run in the third quarter, during which Kirk Cousins stared down a stationary McCloud, which forced Minnesota linebacker Blake Cashman to slide to his right. McCloud instantaneously realized what his quarterback needed and moved into the next passing window against the Vikings' zone coverage before making the catch over the middle and turning on the jets for about 20 yards. McCloud showed off his punt return skills later in the third when he juked a pair of defenders in the open field for a 16-yard gain on a well-designed screen off play-action.
Why does it matter that Atlanta's third receiver had one good game? Well, the two best receiving yardage days of his career have come over the last two contests. During his recent three-game surge (Weeks 11, 12, and 14), McCloud has run more routes (98), earned the second-most targets (20,) and posted the second-highest target share (18.7%) on the team. He has also generated 165 yards after the catch - a mark that ranks fourth in the NFL over those same three games. Perhaps most notably, he has caught 90% of his targets in that time.
With three career offensive touchdowns to his name and attached to an offense that has not scored a touchdown through the air in four games, McCloud is probably not going to receive any potential league-winner votes. Nor should he. As a player who has scored double-digit fantasy points in three straight and four of five with a growing role, however, he has emerged as a capable flex or WR3 option. He certainly has no business being on waiver wires anymore.
Tim Patrick
Patrick is no stranger to adversity. The San Diego native was sidelined for 17 games due to injuries during his time at the University of Utah from 2014-16, which would unfortunately become a recurring theme for him in his pro career. He missed eight weeks in 2019 with a broken hand before posting a pair of 50-catch seasons that convinced Denver to sign him to a three-year extension in November of 2021. His next two seasons never came close to getting off the ground, suffering a torn ACL on Aug. 2, 2022, before tearing his Achilles almost a year to the day later.
The emergence of players such as Devaughn Vele in camp this summer made Patrick expendable in the Broncos' eyes, leading to his eventual release by Denver and addition to the Lions' practice squad shortly thereafter. Patrick struggled to play over half of the team's offensive snaps until Week 8. Beginning with that week, he has been on the field more than 70% of the snaps four times.
Over that six-game stretch, Patrick operated in more of a field-stretching role as evidenced by his team-leading 13.6 aDOT. That changed against the Packers in Week 14, as the 31-year-old ran primarily short routes (7.3 aDOT), which led to a first-read rate (12.5%) on par with Amon-Ra St. Brown and Jahmyr Gibbs (15.6).
His most successful routes - based on the Fantasy Points Data Suite - from that NFC North tilt was the in/dig. On his five such routes, he posted an Average Separation Score of 0.6. It was the only kind of route he ran that night that generated a positive Average Separation Score.
Although his first touchdown - ending a TD drought that lasted 1,082 days - came on a well-designed 3-yard hitch route that used St. Brown as a decoy out of the backfield, Patrick did his best work on the in/dig, going for 18 yards on this dig route to kick start Detroit's final touchdown drive early in the fourth quarter. He then capped off that same possession with his second score, defeating inside leverage with an impressive release for a bigger receiver (6-foot-4 and 210-plus pounds) on another dig route from a yard out.
Patrick's increased involvement is a great sign for his future in Detroit, but a route participation rate in the mid-50s will not get it done in fantasy most weeks. Perhaps his two-TD effort in Week 14 bumps up his playing time, but it does not change the fact he will not push aside St. Brown, Williams, LaPorta, or Gibbs in the passing game pecking order. As such, Patrick is a dicey bet at best to have one more big game for his managers during the fantasy playoffs.
