Fantasy football is a game based on statistics, but statistics without context will tell lies. Great fantasy analysis should incorporate a blend of statistical and film analysis, which will be the goal of this column every week.
I will watch the condensed version of every game this season and highlight a handful of the most important developments from my game reviews each week for fantasy managers to consider moving forward.
Note: With the fantasy football playoffs looming, there will be more of a focus on (likely) widely available players who could make a sizeable impact over the final few weeks of the season moving forward.
Bryce Young
It is difficult to remember the last time a young quarterback made the kind of turnaround within the same season that Young appears to be pulling off. Just two months ago, he was considered a massive bust and was likely doomed to be a "career backup."
While there is admittedly much room for improvement on what he has done since taking back the starting quarterback job five games ago, consider the following metrics (improvements will be highlighted in green):
* - Off-target percentage
^ - Turnover worthy throw percentage
** - Time to throw (seconds)
Let me be clear: there is nothing elite about any of these metrics. Young was drafted No. 1 overall in 2023 with the expectation that he would play at this level early last season before making a Year 2 leap this year. With that said, most of his improvement has come since Diontae Johnson (the player the Panthers traded for this offseason because of his elite separation skills) was shipped to the Ravens and before Adam Thielen returned from his hamstring injury.
In other words, Young's improvement has happened while relying heavily on three rookies (first-round draft choice Xavier Legette, fourth-round draft choice Ja'Tavion Sanders, and undrafted free-agent Jalen Coker) as his primary targets, which is almost unheard of in the NFL.
Unsurprisingly, Young's production has taken another step up since Thielen returned in Week 12, as the chart below illustrates:
Retired NFL quarterback Chase Daniel did a wonderful job of highlighting eight plays from Week 2 that likely made head coach Dave Canales' decision to bench Young in late September an easy one. Among other things, Young's footwork was poor, he was not reading plays out and panicked too much in the pocket. Canales did him no favors by holding him out of all preseason games and calling too many empty sets early in the season, which was a recipe for disaster for a quarterback who took 62 sacks and felt pressure on nearly 40% of his drop-backs as a rookie.
Week 13 illustrated his growth since his benching. From an empty set in the second quarter, observe how composed Young looks under pressure, how balanced he is in the pocket, and the quick decision he makes to step up and use his natural athleticism to beat the defense to the end zone. Check out the confidence he displayed on this two-minute drill to send the Panthers into the break with the lead.
Young is not going to be a good start in fantasy at Philadelphia in Week 14 against an Eagles defense that is playing as well as any unit in the league right now. However, if the former Heisman Trophy winner's confidence can remain unshaken after that, he could easily push for low-end QB1 production versus the Cowboys (Week 15) and Bucs (Week 17) - each of whom ranks among the five most forgiving defenses against fantasy quarterbacks.
Isaac Guerendo
To understand what Guerendo might be in the wake of Christian McCaffrey (knee) and Jordan Mason (ankle) being placed on IR, it might help to understand who he was as a prospect and the first half of his rookie season. Why? Because 42 rush attempts and five catches across 12 NFL games can only tell us so much, especially when he has yet to be asked to handle a full workload. Including his college days at Wisconsin and Louisville, he handled more than 16 touches in a game once in six years.
Guerendo was not drafted to be the main man in San Francisco this season or next, especially after the team inked McCaffrey to a two-year contract extension over the summer. The 49ers selected him in large part because he reminded them of Raheem Mostert, who was a journeyman until head coach Kyle Shanahan and highly respected running backs coach Bobby Turner got their hands on him. Perhaps the biggest difference between Guerendo and Mostert is that the latter ran 4.34 at the NFL Combine at 190 pounds in 2015. The former ran 4.33 at 221 pounds this spring.
For those unfamiliar with Guerendo through the first month of the season, they were introduced to him after this 76-yard run on a Thursday night in Week 6 to close out a win over the Seahawks. His other explosive run was a 19-yard burst two weeks later versus the Cowboys.
Since he barely saw the field in Week 10, did not contribute offensively in Weeks 11-12 and Week 13 was a snow game in which he only played sparingly (although he deserves credit for keeping his balance on his TD run), it may be helpful to turn to the Fantasy Points Data Suite to encapsulate what he did before the team's Week 9 bye.
Among running backs with at least 30 carries through eight weeks, Guerendo's 8.1% explosive run rate (seventh) and 40.5% stuff rate (10th) were about what should have been expected from such a good athlete in a great run scheme. His 0.16 missed tackles forced per attempt (T-26th) was less impressive, although it isn't all that bad considering it was better than full-timers such as De'Von Achane (0.15) and Saquon Barkley (0.13). It is also on par with part-timers such as Tank Bigsby (0.19) and former Wisconsin teammate Braelon Allen (0.16) — each of whom has proven they can force missed tackles.
Guerendo should attract a huge FAAB bid in every league. He is also a highly explosive running back in a proven scheme with one of the best play-callers of his generation in Shanahan.
Is he a league winner? That seems unlikely. Not only does he face one of the worst matchups for running backs during fantasy championship week (the Lions), but it should be noted that San Francisco running backs have combined for six touchdowns this season. Making matters worse is the health of left tackle Trent Williams (ankle), who hasn't played or practiced in the last two weeks.
The 49ers' offense is a much different (and lesser) animal when Williams does not play. Guerendo should see enough volume to be a solid RB2, although that is contingent on Williams returning. If San Francisco's fade continues much longer, the team could decide to rest the 36-year-old the rest of the way, which would likely lock Guerendo in as a volume-based RB2.
Adam Thielen
As much as the fantasy community wants to forget about Thielen, he keeps reminding them that 34 is still relatively young. For those who believed his 70% route participation and 11.4% target share in Week 12 was the new norm for the old guy, he proved them wrong in Week 13. Thielen ran 11 more routes (78% route participation) and commanded almost twice as many targets (21.7%).
While fantasy managers need to keep in mind that the Buccaneers have been among the most favorable matchups for receivers all season long, Thielen's playing time and activity in Week 13 should be the expectation moving forward. As noted above with Young, his veteran presence is sorely needed in an offense relying so heavily on a second-year quarterback and three rookie pass-catchers.
For the sake of keeping expectations in check, the majority of Thielen's targets moving forward will be on plays where he finds a soft spot in zone coverage to help Carolina move the chains. However, that does not mean that is all he is, as he proved on this go-ahead post route for a touchdown or this one-handed gem in Week 13.
Why is Thielen a good investment moving forward? Slot work — especially for aging yet savvy route-runners — allows receivers to get free releases off the line of scrimmage. Short throws may not move the needle much, but they are high-percentage plays. For the season, Thielen has run 103 of his 136 out of the slot (76%). His Average Separation Score on those plays is 0.126 (0.0 on 33 perimeter routes). Among players with at least 100 routes run out of the slot, the first of those two marks ranks 10th among all receivers.
Additionally, NFL defenses utilize zone coverage more than 70% of the time in today's NFL. Among receivers who ran at least 25 routes out of the slot in Week 13 (we use Week 13 only here because it is the first time all season Thielen was healthy and Carolina has had a functional offense with Young as the quarterback at the same time), his 2.86 yards per route run ranked fourth at his position group.
What does it all mean? The odds of Thielen repeating last week's production (8-99-1) is slim in Week 14 as noted earlier, but the idea of adding him to a fantasy roster just to use him in a Week 17 rematch with Tampa Bay is an appealing one. Dallas (Week 15) and Arizona (Week 16) have been slightly less forgiving against slot receivers, but Thielen's importance to the Panthers' offense should allow him to be a serviceable flex option at worst in those weeks.
Marvin Mims
Perhaps no player drove the analytics crowd crazier last season than Mims. From his 4.38 speed to his 39 1/2-inch vertical to his 10-foot-9-inch broad to becoming only the second college player since 2014 to eclipse the 4.00 YPRR threshold before reaching the age of 19, the case for him was seemingly airtight. #BigFantasy was happy to punish the few fantasy managers and analysts who did not fall in line with Mims making a huge impact as a rookie.
Then the 2023 season happened. Head coach Sean Payton repeatedly spoke about giving the second-round pick more snaps only to rarely let him run more than 20 routes. Payton doubled down on the Mims rhetoric over the summer only to use him even less through the first half of the 2024 season. Mims did not have more than two catches and 18 yards in any of the team’s first nine games.
Fast forward to Week 10 in the Broncos' near-upset of the Chiefs and Mims was given some seemingly innocent work out of the backfield to spark the Broncos' struggling ground game. Although 17 yards on three carries was hardly the stuff of legend, Payton saw enough to give him similar work in Week 11. The big plays have been flowing ever since, although not as a runner.
Working out of the backfield in Denver's 38-6 rout of Atlanta that week, Mims gained 37 yards on a well-designed wheel route out of the backfield. He picked up 35 more on a swing pass in Week 12 versus the Raiders. However, Mims' signature moment to this point of his career may have come in Monday night's wild win over the Browns. Working out of the slot, Mims raced past Cleveland's inverted Cover 2 defense for a 93-yard score.
Despite a 25% route rate, 5.4% air yard share, and 10% target share, Mims somehow ranks 32nd in the league with 211 receiving yards over the last four weeks, including a league-best 205 after the catch.
Mims still has yet to play more than 35% of the team's offensive snaps in a game this season. While it does not appear Payton has any interest in expanding his role yet, 21 touches over the last four games is a huge upgrade over eight touches in the first nine contests. Moreover, there is a need for the big-play ability Mims brings to the offense. The running game has been average at best on most of its good days, so the Broncos need to get chunk gains from somewhere. That alone should keep Mims relevant for the rest of the season - even if his playing time does not increase.
To be clear, Mims remains a highly volatile player. Given his current playing time, he figures to be the epitome of a hit-or-miss fantasy option, which means he is likely too risky to start during the fantasy postseason — outside of deeper leagues with multiple flex spots. What he has done is carve out a role, which is more than could have been said last year. He should be on the majority of fantasy rosters moving forward, but he is a player who should only be started if huge upside is needed on a roster lacking it.
