Film + Analytics: 2024 NFL Week 15 Notes

Fantasy football is a game based on statistics, but statistics without context will tell lies. Great fantasy analysis should incorporate a blend of statistical and film analysis, which will be the goal of this column every week.

I will watch the condensed version of every game this season and highlight a handful of the most important developments from my game reviews each week for fantasy managers to consider moving forward.

Note: With the fantasy football playoffs upon us, there will be more of a focus on (likely) widely available players who could make a sizeable impact over the final few weeks of the season moving forward.

Michael Penix Jr.

This column typically highlights players who enjoyed a breakout performance in their last game and digs deep to find the why and the how using film and analytics. Our first player this week will be a departure from the usual in that he last played over a month ago and has logged only offensive snaps in the NFL — all in garbage time.

Late Tuesday night, the Falcons announced Penix — the No. 8 overall pick in this year's draft and the source of many "what was Atlanta thinking" conversations over the last seven-plus months — would replace Kirk Cousins as the starting quarterback moving forward. It was a long-overdue move considering Captain Kirk looked like his pre-injury self in only three games this year, posting an 11:1 touchdown-to-interception ratio in three combined games against the Buccaneers and Cowboys. Against everyone else, he threw for 10 touchdowns versus 15 interceptions.

While it is pointless to dissect how Penix has performed analytically on his five NFL pass attempts thus far, we can look at the kind of prospect he was during his time at the University of Washington and some of the college film that likely made him attractive to the Falcons. In turn, we can make a case for him being viable in fantasy right away, although his biggest contribution this year will likely be what he does for his key playmakers, such as Drake London and Darnell Mooney.

In his draft profile this spring, I gave last year's Heisman Trophy runner-up a high-end comp to Jordan Love. Among Penix's most attractive qualities, I noted that he was likely the "best deep-ball thrower in this draft class," possessing exceptional accuracy and quick decision-making (took only 31 sacks on 1,759 career drop-backs). His biggest drawbacks were his age (24) and extensive injury history.

Make no mistake: Penix's promotion is huge for Mooney, given his ability to stretch the field. However, London could be unlocked as well since he has largely been underutilized as a vertical receiver over his three-year NFL career. His quarterbacks in that time have been a post-Achilles injury version of Cousins, Desmond Ridder, Marcus Mariota and Taylor Heinicke. If Penix can make a seamless transition to the pro game and remains a proficient deep-ball passer, we may have only seen a hint of the upside London possesses.

I will not attempt to make a spirited argument in favor of starting Penix outside of two-quarterback/superflex leagues in Week 16, but the Falcons are doing him a favor by allowing him to make his first start against the Giants. Atlanta does not have the luxury of time as it tries to catch the Bucs in the NFC South, so expect offensive coordinator Zac Robinson to do everything in his power to build up Penix's confidence and comfort quickly. Considering how bad Cousins has been over the last month, the Falcons' passing game has nowhere to go but up.

Jerome Ford

Fantasy managers have become all too accustomed to life without Nick Chubb, who will miss the remainder of the season with a broken left foot. For the third time in the last two years, Ford will take over for an extended period as the team's lead back. Let's briefly look at what he did with his first two opportunities:

From Weeks 3-17 last season (beginning the game after Chubb suffered his gruesome right knee injury), Ford was the 14th-highest-scoring running back in fantasy. With Chubb unable to start this season while recovering from the multiple surgeries on the same knee, Ford was the overall RB30 in Weeks 1-6 - albeit in a much different offense.

For one reason or another, the Browns have almost refused to feature Ford when Chubb has missed extended time. Only once in his three NFL seasons has Ford handled at least 20 touches in a game. He has been trusted with 15 or more touches just nine times, with only two of those outings coming in 2024.

The funny thing about his usage is that his analytics support the notion he should get more work, especially considering how bad the Browns' offensive line has been this year. Before Chubb's Week 7 return, Ford was 10th among running backs - minimum 50 carries - in yards per carry (5.3), 11th in yards after contact per attempt (2.9), and 15th in explosive run rate (6.0%). His explosiveness was on full display on his 62-yard touchdown in Week 15 against the Chiefs - the longest run by any Brown since Ford's 69-yard TD burst midway through last season.

One of the few areas Ford fell short analytically over the first six weeks of this season was forcing only six missed tackles, although it should be noted he was tied with De'Von Achane for 31st in that metric.

As was the case last season, a sizable chunk of Ford's fantasy value during the first six games came because of his receiving ability, ranking seventh among running backs with 20 catches. The problem with all that work was a ridiculously low 4.4 yards per reception, making him one of the few running backs with a higher yards-per-carry average than a yards-per-catch average over an extended stretch.

The Browns have been one of the league's worst rushing teams all season, so Ford's big fantasy day in Week 15 should be treated as the aberration it likely was. Cleveland is also expected to turn to Dorian Thompson-Robinson at quarterback, which could increase the rushing floor for the team but will likely reduce the overall upside of the offense. Ford may benefit from Thompson-Robinson checking down more often than Jameis Winston did during his run as a starter, but it is hard to imagine Ford being anything more than a serviceable flex option over the remainder of the fantasy playoffs.

Rashod Bateman

Throughout his four-year NFL career and even at various points during his breakout campaign in 2024, the mere mention of Bateman's name would typically elicit an eye roll. It did not matter to his critics that he could not buy a break with injuries or was underutilized in a run-based offense. Regardless of the reason, his detractors were quick to argue that first-round picks at receiver need to do more than average 31 catches for 389 yards and 1.3 touchdowns in their first three seasons.

The problem with being down on Bateman was that he was never bad at football, especially last year when most of his remaining supporters finally threw in the towel. Here was part of the proof of why giving up on him was not a good idea entering this season:

Although Bateman's Average Separation Score is not quite at the level it was last season, his 0.171 score in 2024 ranks fourth among receivers who have run at least 200 routes. If we increase the benchmark to 300 routes, he ranks first among all receivers - just ahead of teammate Zay Flowers (0.164). While that may speak volumes about offensive coordinator Todd Monken's ability to get his guys open and the amount of attention Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry attract, it should not take away from the fact that Bateman is, in fact, #goodatfootball.

Bateman displayed the same route-running skill that contributed to his high Average Separation Score over the last two seasons in Week 15, turning safety Jason Pinnock (No. 27) around down the field for a 49-yard second-quarter score. Just over 10 minutes later, he beat another safety (Dane Belton) on a post route for a 20-yard touchdown.

As the overall WR36 in fantasy with 38 catches for 654 yards and seven touchdowns, Bateman is still not technically setting the world on fire. Then again, inconsistency is often part of the deal when a wideout is averaging four targets with an aDOT of 15.9. Bateman's production is far too volatile to be considered a strong WR3 option, especially in Week 16 against the Steelers. However, he has delivered enough "boom" weeks in 2024 to shed the bust label so many had placed on him after three straight disappointing seasons.

Brenton Strange

Strange undoubtedly benefited because Mac Jones did not push the ball down the field much against the Jets. (Jones' 8.7% deep-throw rate in Week 15 ranked ninth-lowest among quarterbacks who started last week.) Jones also attempted 15 more passes in Week 15 than he has in any other game this season. Taken one step further, the former Patriot attempted eight more passes than Trevor Lawrence did in any game this year.

On one hand, logic suggests Strange took advantage of some soft coverage and just had a career game. Both might be true. On the other hand, the tight end position has been targeted 28.2% of the time in Jacksonville this season. Jones and Strange are perfectly suited for each other because the former is not much of a threat to throw deep and the latter is unlikely to stretch the field. The most encouraging metric from Week 15 was Strange's 35.3% first-read rate.

With Brian Thomas Jr. likely to draw even more attention now after his 10-105-2 effort in Week 15, Jones will be incentivized to throw short and over the middle even more than usual. To that end, Strange's 4.3 aDOT was the eighth-lowest mark for any pass-catcher who ran at least 20 routes in Week 15. This catch early in the fourth quarter against the Jets is a perfect example of the kind of play that Strange made on almost every one of his Week 15 catches.

There is one other key piece to the puzzle that has not been discussed yet: the major reason Strange's huge day was possible is that Evan Engram was ruled out for the season early last week with a shoulder injury. Strange will not pick up all of the volume Engram leaves behind, but it is a good bet he will absorb a large percentage of it. Outside of perhaps Parker Washington, the Jaguars have no other short-area target that has earned Jones' trust.

While it is always risky to put faith into a player who has not proved himself yet, there is a case to be made that Strange proved himself earlier in the season when Engram missed four games with a hamstring injury (12 catches for 120 yards and two touchdowns). That was with a strong-armed Lawrence as the quarterback and a (mostly) healthy receiving corps. The current Jaguars have neither one of those.

If there is one fantasy position where it is OK to bet on potential upside — as opposed to a long track record of results — it is tight end. Strange is no Brock Bowers, but he is a great fit for his quarterback in an offense that will likely be in negative game scripts for the rest of the season. It should surprise no one if he is a top-12 option at tight end over the last two weeks of the fantasy playoffs.