Fantasy football is a game based on statistics, but statistics without context will tell lies. Great fantasy analysis should incorporate a blend of statistical and film analysis, which will be the goal of this column every week.
I will watch the condensed version of every game this season and highlight a handful of the most important developments from my game reviews each week for fantasy managers to consider moving forward.
C.J. Stroud
Three months ago, fantasy managers could barely contain their enthusiasm when Stroud was available in the seventh or eighth round of their drafts. Fast forward to the day before Thanksgiving, and the second-year quarterback has rewarded them with four multi-touchdown games and more interceptions (nine) and sacks taken (39) in 12 games this year than he had in 15 games last season (five interceptions, 38 sacks).
What happened?
The most obvious difference from last year to this year is how often Stroud is feeling the heat. In 15 games last season, he was pressured on 33.4% of his drop-backs (187 pressures in all). In 12 outings this season, he is being pressured 38.1% of the time (177 pressures). Making matters worse is this year's offensive line has stayed relatively healthy, at least compared to last season when no Houston lineman came close to playing 17 games.
There are many reasons why players' performances vary so much from week to week and year to year. Sometimes, it is as simple as the quarterback and the receiver not seeing the defense through the same set of eyes. (It is likely most of the blame goes to John Metchie on this play because receivers are coached to find a void in zone coverage. However, a case can be made that Metchie felt like he found a void when he stopped on his route.)
Even if assign the blame for Stroud's first interception in Week 12 on Metchie, there were at least three other plays against the Titans that fall mostly - if not entirely - on Stroud's shoulders. A quarterback has to be able to identify (and account for) any linebacker who may be a threat in zone coverage before throwing the ball. That did not happen on his second interception. He did not step into this throw for some unknown reason, which cost the Texans a first down. He also did not show the necessary awareness on the safety near the end of the game, which sealed Houston's fate.
Stroud may not have the same magic touch he did as a rookie, but he still has plenty of magic. (Check out this 17-yard dart to Tank Dell in the fourth quarter of Week 12 or this 16-yard throw on the run to Nico Collins two plays later.) His struggles this season can most likely be attributed to the adjustment defenses make to young quarterbacks when they have early success. It is now up to Stroud and offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik to adjust to the adjustment.
Stroud's fantasy managers might be in luck in Week 13. Jacksonville, which ranks as the most favorable matchup for quarterbacks, has yielded multiple touchdowns to seven of the last nine quarterbacks it has faced - including Stroud in Week 4. After that, he figures to be much more of a floor play against the Dolphins, Chiefs, and Ravens following the team's Week 14 bye.
Bucky Irving
Irving's disappointing performance at the NFL Scouting Combine almost nine months ago (4.55, 29.5-inch vertical, 9-foot-7 broad at 5-foot-9 and 192 pounds) was an utter shock to anyone who watched him dominate the Pac-12 Conference. Few full-time college running backs churned out yards after contact or forced more missed tackles than he did during his two-year stay at the University of Oregon.
Through his first 11 games as a pro, he has been as good as his film suggested he would be. Among running backs with at least 100 carries, Irving ranks fourth in explosive run rate (7.4%), third in missed tackles forced per attempt (0.31), and first in yards after contact per attempt (3.12). If that is not impressive enough, consider that he is ninth in missed tackles forced (33) despite ranking 30th in rush attempts (108).
The degree to which he outperforms Rachaad White as a runner probably cannot be overstated. Irving holds a significant edge in rushing yards (579-343), yards per carry (5.4-3.7), explosive run rate (7.4-3.3), missed tackles forced (33-12), missed tackles forced per attempt (0.31-0.13) and yards after contact per attempt (2.2-1.1). The rookie is doing all of this despite averaging fewer carries (9.8-9.2).
Of course, Irving has much more to offer than he can do as a runner. The same player who recorded 87 catches over his final two seasons in college is comparable to or better than White in just about every meaningful receiving efficiency metric as well. It appears Tampa Bay's coaching staff reached the same conclusion during the self-scout portion of its Week 11 bye that many fantasy managers did a couple of months ago: get Irving more involved, even if it comes at the expense of White's touches.
The Bucs gave both backs 12 carries in Week 12 but, for the first time all season, they featured Irving over White in the passing game (18-10 in routes run). The results were what most imagined: six catches for 64 yards for Irving. In all, the rookie produced 151 total yards and a touchdown on 18 touches. (White's biggest game through 2 1/2 seasons is 139 yards on 23 touches.)
None of this is meant to disparage White as much as it is to praise Irving. The latter did in his first game as a quasi-featured back something that the former has largely not been able to do through 2 1/2 seasons. White is a gifted receiver. However, Irving is as well (here is a great example from Week 12) and offers so much more as a rusher (his 56-yarder against the Giants tied White's career long).
If (and it's a big if) Tampa Bay moves forward with White complementing Irving, then the rookie is poised to send a lot of managers to fantasy championships with games left versus the Panthers (twice), Raiders and Cowboys - all teams who rank inside the top 12 of most favorable matchups against running backs.
Jerry Jeudy
Jeudy's critics will likely always remember that he was selected before CeeDee Lamb, Justin Jefferson, and Brandon Aiyuk, among others, in 2020's loaded wide receiver draft class. What he is getting a chance to do with Jameis Winston now is prove why he was considered to be every bit the prospect he was four years ago.
Beginning with Winston's first start in Week 8, Jeudy is the overall WR10 (among receivers who have played at least three games) in fantasy points per game (17.0). Very little has changed in where he is lining up (34% slot rate in Weeks 1-7 versus 35% since then), but among the many things that have changed are his catch rate (52.5% before versus 68.6% after) and how fast the ball is coming out of Winston's hand (2.45 seconds versus 2.76 for Deshaun Watson).
The implication here is that it bodes for a quicker receiver like Jeudy to play with a quarterback willing and able to make quick decisions. Much of the passing game in the NFL is about trusting receivers will be where they are supposed to be when the quarterback needs them to be there. Few plays from Week 12 exemplified that quite like Winston throwing to Jeudy in between three Pittsburgh defenders in blizzard-like conditions for a 26-yard gain.
While Jeudy undoubtedly benefits from Winston's presence, he does more to help himself. His Average Separation Score of 0.119 with Winston as the starter is significantly higher than it was with Watson (0.082). His Average Separation Score on out (0.333; 11th) and in/dig (0.4; second) routes are among the best marks in the league among players who have run at least 15 of each of those routes since Week 7.
With fantasy football being a small-sample sport it is, it is far too early to suggest Jeudy is the new alpha receiver in Cleveland. Two weeks ago, that title appeared to belong to Cedric Tillman. What we do know is that three of Jeudy's top four reception totals and all four of his best receiving yardage marks this season have come with Winston as his quarterback. That is not a coincidence.
Fantasy managers may want to lower expectations slightly for Jeudy over the remainder of the season with difficult matchups against the Broncos, Steelers, Chiefs and Dolphins. With that said, his 6-85-0 line in a snowstorm against Pittsburgh — including getting a few catches in Joey Porter Jr.'s coverage — is a great sign that he can be trusted in lineups as long as Winston is upright.
Devaughn Vele
Sean Payton loves what he's seen from rookie WR Devaughn Vele: "Very quickly we've seen his growth. So he's been really good. The strengths for him certainly are his hands. You guys saw it in camp. He's got strong hands in traffic. He's a guy that plays well over the middle. He… pic.twitter.com/9PARSmAH5s
— Andrew Mason (@MaseDenver) November 25, 2024
Vele had an interesting enough story before the Broncos took the 26-year-old in the 7th round this spring, but it arguably got more interesting this fall. He made such a strong impression in camp that Denver made the difficult decision to move on from Tim Patrick. He followed that up with an eight-catch NFL debut in Week 1. He did not play in Week 2 due to a rib injury but was cleared to play the following week. Instead, he was inactive for the next three games while Lil'Jordan Humphrey handled most of the snaps in the slot.
Although it took a while to integrate him back into the offense after making him active again in Week 6, Vele will remain a key part of the offense for the foreseeable future. In fact, head coach Sean Payton seemed to admit this week that it was the coaching staff — and not Vele — who pumped the brakes on the University of Utah alum in September.
While Payton may have been slower to realize what he had in Vele than fantasy managers would have preferred, it is easy to understand why he sees a young Marques Colston. In the rookie. (Compare this route and grab from Colston 10 years ago to Vele's 24-yard catch in Week 12 against the Raiders if you have some doubts.)
Over the last three weeks, Vele has been the overall WR24 in PPR leagues. What is fueling this surge?
First and foremost, Vele is taking advantage of his opportunities (14 catches on 18 targets). His 17.1% target share and 8.5 average depth of target over the last three weeks are slightly better than the full-season numbers for Jayden Reed (16.3, 8.1). That kind of usage will lead to some inconsistency, but Vele was an afterthought in fantasy just a few weeks ago. Reed is still considered a serviceable WR3/4 option.
Vele is a 6-foot-4 receiver with 4.47 speed, 33 1/2-inch arms, and a 36-inch vertical. He is a big target with a wide catch radius and some explosiveness. Keep that in mind when watching him on this rep in Week 12. The eight yards gained on the play were not overly impressive. What should stand out, however, is that cornerback Jack Jones almost completely whiffed on contacting Vele during his release.
Taller receivers — especially those who are lankier — tend to struggle to get off the line against press coverage because they possess more surface area for corners to contact than smaller receivers, so it is encouraging Vele is quick enough to handle it. A traditional big slot typically lacks that ability, which is part of the reason they line up inside (to avoid the jam).
With that said, Vele is running over 70% percent of his routes from the slot. Most slot corners are quick but on the small and/or slower side, so many of them will give up almost a foot in size when combining their stature, arm length, and vertical jump with Vele's.
While Payton has established a reputation as a coach who will not make the life of a fantasy manager easy (especially with how distributes playing time among running backs), he has not publicly compared anyone to Colston since he retired. In short, it is high praise. Vele is not an obvious fantasy start by any means (and probably will not get there this season), but it seems clear that he is no worse than the second-best option in a good passing attack who will push for more targets as the season progresses.
