Fantasy football is a game based on statistics, but statistics without context will tell lies. Great fantasy analysis should incorporate a blend of statistical and film analysis, which will be the goal of this column every week.
I will watch the condensed version of every game this season and highlight a handful of the most important developments from my game reviews each week for fantasy managers to consider.
Note: With the fantasy football playoffs ending in most leagues this week, my focus will be on four (likely widely available) players who may provide enough of a push to get managers across the finish line.
Drake Maye
Amid all the losing in New England, one thing has become abundantly clear: the Patriots' future is in good hands with Maye under center. During my appearance on the FFPC High-Stakes Fantasy Hour last week, I noted that Maye has been a pleasant surprise - especially considering he is working with what would be third and fourth wide receivers on most rosters and Hunter Henry.
Week 16 supplied several special moments that should have New England fans looking forward to a much brighter future. Less than three minutes into a game the Patriots were given no chance to win, Maye spotted Kayshon Boutte in single coverage and unleashed a 28-yard dime that cornerback Kaiir Elam (No. 5) had no chance to make a play on despite being in near-perfect position.
There was also the special play when Maye threw off his back foot and against his momentum over the middle of the field in the third quarter - a throw maybe five NFL quarterbacks can make - to beat a seven-man pressure. While there will not be another Josh Allen entering the league anytime soon, Maye looked a lot like his Week 16 counterpart on this 4th-and-1 run for a first down late in the fourth quarter.
Perhaps the only major knock on Maye right now is the same thing that has plagued most rookie quarterbacks for decades: too many interceptions (illustrated by a turnover-worthy percentage of 3.6). He has thrown an interception in seven straight games, although some of the blame belongs on the shoulders of the aforementioned group of receivers - most of whom will likely not be on the roster in two years.
Most of the blame can be directed at a lackluster offensive line that is allowing Maye to feel pressure in 2.41 seconds - the third-quickest mark (minimum 10 games played) of any quarterback since he took over as New England's starting quarterback in Week 6. Despite the offensive line woes, Maye ranks 10th in catchable ball percentage (75.2) and 10th in off-target percentage (15.3)
Maye was dealt arguably the worst hand of any of the high-end quarterback prospects in the 2024 NFL Draft, but he has consistently performed at a low-end fantasy QB1 level or better in most of his 10 career starts - regardless of the level of competition. It should not come as a surprise if he does it again versus the Chargers in Week 17.
Ameer Abdullah
Abdullah has been in the league so long that then-Jets head coach Todd Bowles said the following about the former Lions' second-round pick in 2015: "He's quick as a cat. He's about as quick as Barry Sanders. I'm not saying he is Barry, but he's a good running back."
Abdullah logged 327 carries and recorded 57 catches across 3 1/2 seasons before becoming a journeyman and core special teams player in 2018. Over his three other NFL stops in the next 6 1/2 years, he has combined for 147 rush attempts and 143 receptions. Needless to say, he has not been a big part of any offense since Detroit gave up on him.
NFL teams have made it clear over the years that they do not see Abdullah as a player who can or should handle a lot of work — his only 10-carry game since Detroit was on Black Friday against the Chiefs in Week 13. Sincere McCormick's emergence appeared to be the latest of many roadblocks his employers placed in front of him, but McCormick's early exit in Week 15 once again allowed Abdullah to shine.
In Week 16, Abdullah proved he was two things that none of the running backs (i.e. Zamir White, Alexander Mattison and McCormick) who have seen playing time ahead of him this season were: efficient and explosive. The former University of Nebraska standout's most memorable play of the weekend was probably on this contested catch early in the fourth quarter, but it might have been a seemingly innocent check-down in the second quarter that was the most impressive.
What was so good about a 9-yard reception on first down? Abdullah's quick reaction to the throw saved the play, but the mere fact he had the awareness to know where the closest defender was upon catching the ball (and how to make him miss in space) was exceptional. For a team that lacks big-play ability outside of Brock Bowers, it boggles the mind as to how often Abdullah sees minimal snaps on offense. The 31-year-old also proved his mettle near the goal line in Week 16, displaying patience and vision on a 7-yard TD that ended up being the game-winner.
There is not a plethora of running backs available on the waiver wire at this point of the season who have recorded consecutive top-15 finishes among their position group. Abdullah surprisingly brings RB1 upside to the table in Week 17 versus the Saints. It does not come without risk because Abdullah's production depends greatly on Las Vegas being in a negative game script, yet the opportunity for that exists — even against New Orleans — for an offense that has not cracked 20 points in six straight.
Marquise Brown
There was little question that the Chiefs would ease Brown back into the mix in Week 16. That is exactly what happened, as he ran 15 routes (good for a route participation rate of 33.3%). What was not expected was that Brown would be targeted on over half of his routes (53%, to be exact). So why did an offense with Travis Kelce, Xavier Worthy, and DeAndre Hopkins feel compelled to lean so heavily on a receiver playing his first game with the team?
It helps to begin by looking at what routes he ran against the Texans. After all, it makes sense if he ran short and high-catch probability routes, then he would be in a position to see a lot of targets against Houston's fierce pass rush - especially given how poorly Kansas City's offensive tackles have played in 2024. Sure enough, he ran just one go route. Ten of his routes (four outs, two hitches, two crossers and two screens) are routes that are typically run less than 10 yards downfield or behind the line of scrimmage.
Brown did most of his damage (five catches for 45 yards) on this 20-yard corner route midway through the second quarter, but he was a slight hesitation away from having a much bigger day.
Nevertheless, the screen routes provide the most encouraging hint into what the Chiefs are likely thinking. Screens are usually called for several reasons, two of which include manufacturing easy touches for playmakers and creating run-after-catch opportunities. Kansas City ran a pair for him, including this one in the red zone.
Most fantasy teams playing in their league championship game this week likely have at least four receivers who will play more snaps, run more routes, and earn more targets, but Brown's Week 16 usage was encouraging enough that managers would be justified in using him as a flex option. Pittsburgh has struggled against perimeter receivers this season and ruled out stud cornerback Joey Porter Jr. (knee) for Week 17, creating even more fantasy upside for Brown.
Chig Okonkwo
For a team with a lousy passing game, the Titans have been interesting for fantasy purposes at various points this season. Calvin Ridley has been the WR18 (WR27 in fantasy points per game) from Week 8 through Week 16. Nick Westbrook-Ikhine was the overall WR27 from Week 8 through Week 13, mostly on the strength of scoring at least one touchdown in seven of eight outings. The most recent flavor of the month is Okonkwo, who has been the overall TE1 since the start of the fantasy playoffs.
Why should anyone care about the tight end in Tennessee? Eighteen players have recorded a catch that has covered at least 70 yards in 2024. Okonkwo is the only tight end of the group, which should say all that he said about his big-play potential. Taken one step further, Okonkwo is the only tight end to accomplish such a feat over the last two seasons.
From the "better late than never" files, Okonkwo's 15 first-read and designed targets over the last two weeks trail only Bowers (18) among tight ends. What makes this all the more impressive is that Bowers has run 83 routes to Okonkwo's 50 over that span. Perhaps the oddest part of it all is that the former fourth-rounder's route participation has barely changed (averaged 20.8 routes in Weeks 1-14 versus 25 over the last two games).
Among the many things that have changed are his first-read share (11.3% in Weeks 1-14; 35.7% in Weeks 15-16), air yard share (7.6%, 22.8%), targets (3.2; 9.5), target share (10.5%; 26.4%), targets per route run (0.16; 0.38), catch rate (71.4%; 89.5%) and slot rate (38.9%; 56.0%).
There is at least one other factor to consider: the Titans' last two opponents (the Bengals and Colts) have surrendered more fantasy points to tight ends than any other team. What else should not get lost in this sudden turn of events is that Tennessee has fallen behind by at least 17 points in both contests, which has resulted in the Titans (namely Mason Rudolph) facing a heavy dose of shell coverage and forcing him to check down to Okonkwo and Tyjae Spears.
Either way, let us assume that negative game script (as Rudolph suggested in the linked clip above) and nothing else led to this change. While there may be some truth to it, Okonwko played 85% of the team's snaps in Week 16 — a season-high — and ran a route on 80.6% of the team's drop-backs.
On the plus side, the Jaguars are only marginally better at defending the tight end than Cincinnati or Indianapolis. The Titans clearly like what they see from Okonkwo right now and Rudolph is targeting him early AND often. On the downside, Okonkwo managed three catches on four targets for eight yards in a forgettable 10-6 loss to Jacksonville when the teams met three weeks ago.
Is Okonkwo a two-week fantasy tease primed to let his managers down in the fantasy championship? Or have the Titans finally figured out they have a potential building block? Last week's playing time and route-running spike suggest the latter is more likely. All fantasy managers need is the game to open up more than either team did in Week 14.
