2024 NFL Passing Yard Props

The NFL season is slowly starting to come into view, which means more NFL player props are being released with each passing week. Most of the national sportsbooks have posted 2024 NFL Passing Yard Props for the majority of starting quarterbacks. In this article, I highlighted bets I’ve already made on Deshaun Watson, Geno Smith, and Bo Nix and a couple of additional wagers I considered.

Wagering your hard-earned money in the summer and waiting more than half a year for bets to be settled isn’t the easiest pill to swallow. Nevertheless, if we can get the best of the lines before the markets fully mature in the future, it will make the wait until the end of the season worth it in the long run. Make sure to shop around for the best lines and odds if you have access to multiple sportsbooks. You’re likely to see more volatility between books on NFL Futures in the off-season than you’ll see on game lines and player props during the season. Let’s see if we can find some value in these NFL passing yard props.

I previously broke down the 2024 NFL Passing Touchdown Props, the NFL MVP race, the 2024 NFL Rookie of the Year awards, and NFL Rookie Props. Subscribers can see all 22 of the NFL Futures I’ve already bet for the upcoming season.

2024 NFL Passing Yard Props

The table is sorted by Fantasy Points passing yards projection. You should target the Lowest Passing Yard Totals for over wagers and the Highest Passing Yard Totals for under wagers. I used DraftKings (DK), FanDuel (FD), BetMGM (MGM), Caesars (CZR), and ESPN Bet (ESPN) to find the best yardage totals for each quarterback as of June 3.

Brolley’s Bets

Deshaun Watson (Cle) under 3655.5 passing yards (-110, BetMGM). Placed April 28.

Watson’s new beginning in Cleveland hasn’t gone as planned despite his misleading 8-4 record as the starter in two seasons. He’s managed just 12 starts since the Browns gave him an NFL-record $230 million in guaranteed money because of an 11-game suspension in 2022 and a season-ending throwing-shoulder injury. Watson still isn’t back to full health in early June as he’s still ramping up his throwing since needing surgery on his right shoulder last November. Watson has yet to regain his old form even before his surgery, averaging just 184.8 passing YPG, 6.5 YPA, and 28.4 pass attempts per game while completing 59.8% of his passes in 2022-23. Watson’s declining play and his availability concerns make his passing yards prop an easy bet to the under despite his strong receiving corps in an offense that may have to throw more while Nick Chubb makes his way back from his catastrophic knee injury.

Geno Smith (Sea) under 3645.5 passing yards (-110, BetMGM). Placed April 28.

I’m quite excited to see how Smith performs in Seattle’s new-look offense under Brian Grubb, who’s never coached at the NFL level in any capacity. Michael Penix thrived in Grubb’s Washington offense in 2023, posting 326.9 passing YPG and 36 passing TDs on his way to finishing second in Heisman Award voting. The Seahawks ranked eight pass rate over expectation in their first two seasons with Geno as the starter, and Grubb’s offenses ranked 15th in FBS dropback rate in 2022-23. My bigger concern for Smith is that Seattle’s new coaching staff isn’t as invested in him as the old regime, and they even contemplated moving on from him during the off-season. The Seahawks were unable to select a quarterback at the top of the draft with six QBs selected in the first 12 picks, but they still traded for a 23-year-old quarterback who already has 18 career starts under his belt. Smith has a much shorter leash than his last two seasons as Seattle’s starter, and they could give Sam Howell a crack if they’re trending in the wrong direction in the second half of the season. Smith fell below 3645.5 passing yards last season when he missed two games, and it didn’t help that his YPA dipped to 7.3 from 7.5 in 2022.

Bo Nix (Den) under 3050.5 passing yards (-110, BetMGM). Placed April 28.

The Broncos have the potential to be the league’s worst team so they may elect to give Jarrett Stidham or Zach Wilson a few starts to open the season before handing the reins to Nix for good. Nix will receive ideal coaching from Sean Payton, who coaxed a QB14 finish (18.0 FPG) out of Russell Wilson despite Mr. Unlimited being washed up and a terrible fit for his quick-processing offense. Nix has one of the league’s weakest receiving corps especially if they move Courtland Sutton before the season, as they’ve tried to do since last off-season. Payton’s last two offenses ranked 25th and 30th in pass rate over expectation in 2023 and 2021 (Saints), respectively, and they added Audric Estime to an already loaded backfield. I wagered on Nix under 3050.5 passing yards in late April since I expect this to be a weaker passing attack in what should be a run-heavy offense.

J.J. McCarthy (Minn) under 2825.5 passing yards (-110, DraftKings). Placed June 10

The Vikings are taking it slow with their first-round quarterback during OTAs according to the observations from The Athletic’s Alec Lewis. He also noted that Sam Darnold has taken every first-team snap that the media has seen. In a conversation with our Joe Dolan, Vikings beat reporter Matthew Coller put McCarthy’s chances of starting Week 1 at 25%. He added that Week 7 could be a target for his first start after their bye week depending on how Darnold starts the season. Longtime Vikings reporter Kevin Seifert wrote in May that the organization views Darnold as more than a placeholder, and they want McCarthy’s ascension to the starting spot to be organic. Most signs are pointing toward McCarthy watching Darnold from the sidelines to open the season, and he would have to average 236 passing YPG if he would start the final 12 games after Minnesota’s Week 6 bye.

Brolley’s Leans

Aaron Rodgers (NYJ) under 3800.5 passing yards (-110, DraftKings)

The deck is stacked a bit against Rodgers, who is coming off a devastating Achilles injury at 40 years old. He failed to throw for 3700 yards in 17 games the last time we saw him in regular action with the Packers in 2022. He struggled to work with a new receiving corps that season, and the Packers finished 20th in pass rate over expectation (-1.3%). Rodgers essentially has no game reps with his Jets receiving corps, but at least it's a more talented group led by Garrett Wilson and Mike Williams. The Jets could lean into their running game and top-flight defense while Rodgers gets up to speed off his injury. Rodgers also operated the Packers' offense at a snail’s pace in his final three seasons as Green Bay finished dead last in seconds per snap in three straight seasons in 2020-22. New York’s offensive line could still be a liability for an older quarterback losing mobility so I’m looking toward the under on his prop.

Jayden Daniels (Was) over 3075.5 passing yards (-112, FanDuel)

I gave out Daniels as an Offensive Rookie of the Year play at +1400 odds, and he’s being underestimated a bit as a passer with his low season prop totals. Daniels completed 70.2% of his passes and averaged 9.4 YPA and 258.7 passing YPG in 26 games with LSU, which propelled him to a Heisman victory last year. His receiving corps is a little on the thin side behind Terry McLaurin, but the group has potential with Jahan Dotson, Luke McCaffrey, and Ben Sinnott each owning first three-round draft capital. Daniels should get plenty of play volume after Kliff Kingsbury’s last three offenses finished inside the top eight in plays per game by averaging 65+ plays. I have minor durability concerns that are keeping me away from this prop since he tended to take too many big hits during his college career