Film + Analytics: 2024 NFL Week 4 Notes

Fantasy football is a game based on statistics, but statistics without context will tell lies. Great fantasy analysis should incorporate a blend of statistical and film analysis, which will be the goal of this column every week.

I will watch the condensed version of every game this season and highlight a handful of the most important developments from my game reviews each week for fantasy managers to consider moving forward.

Kenneth Walker

The fantasy community started to come around on Walker near the end of drafting season, but it was a bit too late for many. The Seattle coaching staff sang his praises throughout the summer, making quite clear its intentions of featuring him. In retrospect, his 20-103-1 rushing line from Week 1 against the Broncos looks quite impressive after Denver held Breece Hall and Braelon Allen to a combined 38 scoreless yards on 14 carries in Week 4.

At any rate, there are probably not enough superlatives to describe Walker's performance on Monday Night Football. He earned them.

Most MNF viewers will probably remember this play the most (for good reason). Fortunately, there is more to love about his three-touchdown effort, as he showed just about every skill — speed, power, explosiveness, patience, tackle-breaking, and receiving ability — that coaches and general managers could want from a running back in today's NFL. Here are some metrics that reinforce that statement:

• Speed: 4.38

• Career explosive run rate: 38.4%

• Yards after contact per attempt (through two games): 3.34

• Missed tackles forced/attempt (through two games): 0.34

One thing analytics struggles to quantify is vision. Walker's third score of the night probably illustrated his vision as much as any run in Week 4 and also incorporated the aforementioned metrics. There are any number of NFL running backs who would have bounced the run outside of tight end A.J. Barner's block and other running backs who would tried to run outside of (or run through) linebacker Alex Anzalone because the play was drawn up to the left side. Walker saw the play before it happened. He showed many of the same qualities earlier in the game. He also put it on display in Week 1 as well.

Detroit is still the fifth-stingiest defense against fantasy running backs AFTER giving up 33.6 PPR points to Walker and another 10.4 to Zach Charbonnet in Week 4. Walker rushed for 80 yards and scored three times on 12 carries (6.6 YPC). Every other running back (including Charbonnet) the Lions have faced have combined for 153 yards rushing and one touchdown on 52 attempts (2.9). That "other" list includes Kyren Williams, Rachaad White and James Conner.

Next up for Walker is a Giants defense that gave up huge rushing days to Aaron Jones (14-94-1) and Brian Robinson Jr. (17-133-0) before facing the anemic rushing attacks of the Browns and Cowboys. Considering Walker has yet to play in a game with an extended positive game script and New York's lackluster offense, Walker could be in for another huge day in Week 5.

Garrett Wilson

Charvarius Ward, L'Jarius Sneed, Christian Gonzalez, and Patrick Surtain II.

This is not a random list of recent Pro Bowl or All-Pro cornerbacks. They are the cornerbacks who have frequently lined up across from Wilson over the first four weeks of the season. Fantasy managers have no one to blame but themselves if they didn't anticipate a slow start from Wilson if they had bothered to look at his potential individual matchups.

Let us review what the aforementioned foursome gave up on average last season: 3.3 receptions on 5.8 targets for 38.1 yards and a touchdown roughly once every seven games. The average receiver facing them through four weeks would have been somewhere in the neighborhood of 13 catches on 23 targets (good for a catch rate of about 56.5%) for 152 yards and one touchdown (if we round up from .59).

Through four games, Wilson has 20 catches on 34 targets for 191 yards and one touchdown. His 20 catches are tied for 14th in the league, while his 34 targets are tied for ninth. Opportunity has not been the issue. The problem is that top-flight corners tend to depress yardage and touchdown numbers for all receivers - even elite ones. Great play-callers can minimize this effect somewhat, but Wilson does not have that luxury with offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett.

How much different would the narrative of Wilson's season be at this point if he had not been interfered with and catches this pass in Week 3? (He did score later in the drive, for what it is worth.)

Wilson is not without blame, however. This missed opportunity right after the two-minute warning against the Broncos likely ended up deciding the game for New York. Everything about Wilson's pattern (including the short motion that put him behind Allen Lazard pre-snap) suggests he was the primary read. The placement of Aaron Rodgers' throw suggests Wilson was supposed to clear the linebacker (Jonathon Cooper) and go low to catch the ball to avoid getting hit by the safety. Wilson appeared unaware he was the primary target. That cannot happen.

The Jets are actually doing a good job of trying to get Wilson away from the other team's top corner (42.9% slot rate), but the difference between this year and his first two seasons is that Rodgers can make it to the second or third read in his progression - unlike many recent Jets quarterbacks. Former starters such as Zach Wilson did not have that ability, nor did the Jets have the talent on the offensive line to give him the time to do it.

Wilson did not just suddenly forget how to get open. His time will come soon. The dam could break open for Wilson as soon as Week 5 against a Vikings defense that has been stellar but given up a ton of garbage-time numbers in recent weeks to Stefon Diggs (10-94-0) and Jayden Reed (7-139-1).

Brian Thomas Jr.

In my pre-NFL Draft evaluation of Thomas, I gave him a high-end comp of "a more athletic and dynamic Tee Higgins" and a low-end comp of Christian Watson. The talent was obvious at LSU and it did not take long for him to announce his presence at the NFL level. He sits at WR14 in total PPR points and WR20 in points per game through four weeks.

Thomas is not picking on lowly competition for his fantasy success either. His worst game as a pro so far was five catches for 48 scoreless yards against the Bills, who have been the second-stingiest defense against receivers through four weeks. He posted 94 receiving yards - on only two catches and four targets - against a Cleveland defense that managed to keep the likes of CeeDee Lamb and Malik Nabers under 80 yards.

Fantasy managers likely witnessed a glimpse of what is about to come on a regular basis in Week 4, although the Texans did their part in gifting him a touchdown by asking safety Eric Murray to check him on a drag route out of the slot at the 2-yard line. However, he made two other plays that should impress most football fans.

On his 32-yard grab early in the third quarter, Thomas showed late hands (not giving cornerback Kamari Lassiter any indication that the ball was coming until it was almost on top of him), which is a must for any receiver attempting to be a consistent deep threat in the league. A few minutes later, he showed great patience to set up his blocking on a 13-yard end around.

Even if we do nothing more than look at his targets over the first four weeks (4-4-9-9), it is clear Thomas has already passed Gabe Davis as the top perimeter receiver in Jacksonville. The eventual return of tight end Evan Engram (hamstring) will likely bring down his 21.3% target share a bit, but not to the point where he will not remain a quality WR3 option with WR2 upside.

Kyle Pitts

Pitts is one of the greatest athletes to play the tight end position in the NFL. That much cannot be debated. As a 21-year-old, he became only the second tight end in league history to top 1,000 yards receiving as a rookie (joining Hall of Famer Mike Ditka). In that amazing 2021 season, Pitts became the only rookie tight end in league history to average more than 15 yards per catch while also finishing with at least 60 receptions.

During that same season, Pitts thrived on deep (20-plus yards) targets, catching seven of 12 such throws in his direction for 239 yards. Over the next two years, he was a combined 5-for-25 for 142 yards on those same opportunities. The main reason usually cited for his statistical decline in 2022 and 2023 usually revolved around poor quarterback play (Marcus Mariota, Desmond Ridder and Taylor Heinicke). There is also no question the knee injury he suffered in Week 11 of 2022 affected him last season as well.

Four games into what was supposed to be his bounce-back season, little has seemingly changed despite the arrival of a quarterback known for relying on his tight ends in Kirk Cousins and one of the league's many Sean McVay disciples in offensive coordinator Zac Robinson. The metrics support what the box scores have been telling us for a few years: Pitts is a one-hit wonder, has lost some of his athleticism or is a victim of multiple coaching staffs trying to turn him into something he's not (a wide receiver):

Here is some visual evidence:

Although we know that this three-play sequence is not necessarily indicative of a full season of film (his 50-yard catch against the Chiefs in Week 3 suggests he is still quite explosive), let us pretend as if it is.

Each of his three targets in Week 4 was similar in that he lined up wide each time (he technically motioned over to the slot on the last one) and ran short routes. Another observation is that he is not running good routes. Allow me to explain:

• The first route was doomed from the start because Cousins took a short set on his drop and stared Pitts down, which tells the defense where and when the throw is going to go. Pitts made it worse by doing a poor job of setting up his route. Then again, Cousins could have waited for Pitts to move into the second window of the zone; he was not under pressure and it would have allowed Pitts to move past the safety.

• The second play is a lazy route at best. Pitts takes at least two steps too many before his break and does nothing to threaten Saints cornerback Marshon Lattimore, who jumps the route and easily breaks up the play. Pitts makes it worse by not doing more to use his body to keep Lattimore from making a play on the ball.

• The third route was probably more unfortunate than anything. It is hard to tell if defensive back Will Harris held Pitts on the play or if Pitts tripped.

Here is part of the problem as I see it. Pitts' average depth of target (aDOT) was 10.8 yards as a rookie. That mark is at 8.5 through four games after being at 13.8 in 2022 and 11.4 in 2023. Nothing about Pitts' 4.4 speed at 250 pounds or his 83 3/8-inch wingspan screams short-area receiver. Similarly, there is a reason players his size do not typically play receiver in the league: they present a bigger target for cornerbacks to slow down at the line of scrimmage and typically lack the quickness to avoid the jam.

Robinson is thankfully using Pitts more in-line than former head coach Arthur Smith did, but it is still not enough. Why should he line up in line on passing plays more often? Someone with his size and skill set offers an advantage against linebackers and safeties, not cornerbacks. Furthermore, Pitts needs to be able to use his straight-line speed in those linebacker and safety matchups downfield, not trying to make quick moves on in-breaking routes against cornerbacks.

As a first-time play-caller, Robinson deserves the benefit of time to figure out how to best weaponize Pitts, but there is no guarantee that will happen anytime soon — if ever. What does it mean for fantasy managers? He is almost unplayable in most leagues until we see proof of it happening. At this point, I would rather start Bengals rookie Erick All Jr.