Welcome to Stat Pack, where every week, I dive into the Fantasy Points Data Suite and come out with the best, most important fantasy stats that matter. This article is meant to be both a review of the week that was and a look forward to the rest of the season.
Unless stated otherwise, all of the stats in this article are from Fantasy Points Data. Our collection team has charted every play from every game over the last three seasons, and we will have fresh, weekly data imported into the tools early Tuesday mornings.
Week 1 Scoring Downer
Week 1 was a historically low-scoring week league-wide. Only 656 total points were scored, which is significantly lower than each of the prior five years (673, 768, 755, 776, 765 points scored).
With the extra game added at the end of the season, teams have less incentive to come out on point in Week 1, and many of those same organizations rested starters for most of the preseason. Sluggish football with some dominant defensive performances was the result.
The Eagles, Colts, Packers, Jets, Cardinals, and Cowboys fantasy D/ST each scored 16 or more FP in Week 1. This means that these six D/ST out-scored all but 10 QB, 16 WR, and 14 RB on the slate. Don’t be discouraged if you lost Week 1 with a low score because, well, everyone had a low score. Unless you have Tyreek Hill.
Sportsbooks have also struggled in recent years Week 1. Opening Day favorites are an abominable 33-46-1 against the spread (41.3% cover) over the last four years. In all other games (Week 2 to Super Bowl), the favorite covers the spread 48% of the time.
We always think we know more than we actually do.
Ok, onto Stat-Pack. We’re back with a new format!
Quarterbacks
1. Tua Tagovailoa was the QB1 on the week (29.1 FP), leading all passers in aDOT (12.4) and Hero Throws (17.8%).
1b. Tua’s 466 passing yards were third-most in Week 1 history, trailing only Tom Brady (517 yards in 2011) and Dan Marino’s (473 yards in 1994) performances.
1c. Tua has started and finished 12 healthy games and has finished as a top-5 scoring QB five times (41.7% of games).
1d. That would only trail Jalen Hurts (56%) and Josh Allen (55%) for the highest rate of top-5 performances over the last three combined seasons.
2. Desmond Ridder attempted just 18 passes for a pitiful, league-low 3.2-yard aDOT vs. Carolina.
2b. Just a reminder – Atlanta averaged 24.4 pass attempts per game last year, which was the fifth-fewest in a single season since 2000.
2c. Ridder is averaging 164.6 passing yards per start. For reference, that would be the 17th-lowest individual season among starting QBs since 2000.
3. Justin Fields attempted 37 passes (second-most in one game of his career), but his aDOT (3.5 yards) was anemic. Fields had the 10th-highest aDOT (9.0 yards) last season.
3b. Fields really struggled to process the field, targeting his first read only 40.5% of the time vs. Green Bay.
3c. Only Bryce Young (39.5%) threw to his first read at a lower rate in Week 1.
4. Daniel Jones was under pressure on 71.4% of his dropbacks on SNF vs. Dallas, by far the highest rate of Week 1.
4b. Keeping Jones upright was a massive problem for the Giants last year. Jones was pressured on 36.5% of his dropbacks last season (second-highest rate).
5. Defensive pressures were up league-wide Week 1. It was a bad opener for many offensive lines. The median pressure rate in Week 1 was 39%. That figure is usually around 32%.
6. Jordan Love led all QBs in fantasy points scored per dropback (0.77) as the Packers aggressively threw downfield (10.4-yard aDOT, sixth-highest)… all without Christian Watson (hamstring).
6b. Love’s passer rating from a clean pocket was 126.4, third-best on the week.
6c. Love has some serious arm talent and had a great game vs. Chicago, but for now, we are going to have to live with a few wild throws. Love was charted as “off-target” on 25.9% of his passes, which was the third-highest rate of the week.
6d. Bryce Young (26.3% off-target throw rate) and Kenny Pickett (26.1%) were the most wildly inaccurate QBs of Week 1.
7. Brock Purdy ranked second-best in passer rating (128.9) from a clean pocket in Week 1.
7b. Last year, Purdy ranked fifth-best in clean pocket passer rating (110.8).
7c. Purdy ranked sixth-best by fantasy points per dropback (0.52) in Week 1. Last season, Purdy ranked sixth-best in FP/DB (0.57).
7d. The 49ers are favored by -8 (at LAR), -6 (vs. NYG), and -10.5 (vs. ARI) points over the next three weeks.
8. It was a solid debut for Anthony Richardson with 10/40/1 rushing which is largely what made him the QB5 on the week (20.9 FP).
8b. Richardson led all QBs with six designed rushing attempts, which he took for 24 yards.
8c. Last season, Jalen Hurts (8.1) and Justin Fields (6.3) led all QBs in designed carries per game.
There were some extreme outlier low-scoring performances in Week 1…
9. Jalen Hurts scored 12.5 FP. His season-low last year was 16.0 FP.
10. Lamar Jackson scored just 6.6 FP. That is the fewest amount of FP he’s ever scored in any start of his career.
11. Josh Allen scored just 9.0 FP, due in large part to four turnovers. That is the fewest FP that Allen has scored in his last 71 starts since his rookie season in 2018.
Running Backs
Here are the top-20 leaders in Week 1 snap rate (via Bell Cow Report).
1. Travis Etienne was emphatically used as the Jaguars lead RB in Week 1 as he cashed in a 18/77/1 rushing | 5/27 receiving line to finish with 21.4 FP (RB6).
1b. Etienne set career-highs in targets (5) and receptions (5) after not having more than 3 catches in a game last year.
1c. Promisingly, Etienne ran a route on a whopping 68.6% of the Jaguars passing plays – which is a massive boost. Etienne only ran a route on 41.7% of the pass downs in his first year.
2. Tony Pollard is going to win leagues if he continues to get most of the goal-line work. Pollard got five carries inside of the 10-yard line vs. the Giants, 2 of which he cashed in for TDs.
2b. Pollard got just 12 carries inside-the-10 and scored 3 TDs on those chances last year.
2c. Last year, Ezekiel Elliott ranked 3rd with 26 inside-the-10 carries. Zeke had the third-most valuable role by XFP per game inside-the-10 (4.8).
2d. Only Austin Ekeler (23.7 XFP) had a more valuable Week 1 RB role than Pollard (20.4).
3. On the plus side, Rachaad White got bell-cow usage. He ranked fifth in snap rate (79.4%) and seventh in route share (52.6%) among RBs.
3b. White and Christian McCaffrey were the only two RBs that played on 100% of their team’s red-zone snaps Week 1.
3c. On the downside, White struggled to pick up yards (17 carries, 39 yards). Poor offensive line play was a theme league-wide and the Buccaneers were no different. White saw just 0.65 yards before first contact (29th-of-41 RBs).
4. Better days are ahead for Saquon Barkley, who dealt with eight or more defenders in the box on 10-of-12 (83.3%) carries vs. Dallas. 83%!
5. Better days are also ahead for Joe Mixon, who opened Week 1 with his usual 13 carries + 5 targets. Mixon saw some of the worst run-blocking in the league as the Bengals offensive line opened up -0.15 yards before contact (second-worst).
6. No running back saw worse blocking than Cam Akers (-0.23 yards before contact), however, there are some massive red flags surrounding usage here…
6a. Kyren Williams (65%) out-snapped Akers (35%) by a massive margin, largely driven by Williams’ role in the pass game.
6b. Williams ran a route on 66.7% of the Rams pass plays, fourth-most among running backs.
6c. Williams (3) and Akers (2) split carries inside-the-10 (red-zone).
7. Austin Ekeler had a stellar Week 1 with 26.4 FP (RB2), but an ankle injury suffered at the end of the third-quarter might limit him over the next few weeks.
7a. In quarters 1-3 of Week 1, Ekeler’s snap rate was 63.6%. He played just five snaps in the fourth quarter vs. Miami.
7b. Getting T Rashawn Slater and C Corey Linsley both back healthy together is massive for the Chargers. Their ground game was the best in the league as Ekeler (2.88) and Joshua Kelley (2.81) both enjoyed league-highs in yards before contact per carry.
8. I’m not overly concerned about Rhamondre Stevenson’s slow start. He was dealing with a stomach bug and still managed to finish RB8 in snaps (74.4%) and he out-snapped Ezekiel Elliott by an 8 to 3 margin in the red-zone.
8b. Stevenson ran 29 routes (50% share) to Ezekiel Elliott’s 17 (29% share).
9. Breece Hall was stellar in his debut, needing only 11 touches to rack up 147 yards. Hall forced a ridiculous 0.60 missed tackles forced per carry, which trailed only Chuba Hubbard (0.67) and Jahmyr Gibbs (0.86 !!) for the week high.
9b. Aaron Rodgers’ brutal injury kills the steam of this Jets offense, which obviously dings Hall for fantasy. While there is no question that Hall is the superior talent, hopefully we see a significant ramp up in his role in Weeks 2-3. Dalvin Cook (49% snap rate) led this backfield followed by Hall (32%) and Michael Carter (22%). We really don’t want a 3-way committee with Zach Wilson under center here.
10. Miles Sanders (58%) and Chuba Hubbard (36%) split snaps Week 1, however, the Panthers were not lying when they said they wanted to get Sanders involved in the pass game…
10b. Sanders got six targets in Week 1. He had not seen that many targets in a game since 2020 and his 2022 season-high in targets was 3.
10c. Sanders accumulated 16.0 XFP in Week 1, 12th-most.
11. Alexander Mattison is officially the Vikings bell cow. Mattison ranked RB9 by overall snap rate (73%), he was RB6 in snaps inside-the-20 (82%), and was RB12 in route share (49%).
11b. Mattison’s role is strong, however, his overall volume may never be truly elite this season. The Vikings were top-5 in pass rate in 2022 and ranked 3rd in pass rate over expectation in Week 1 against a Buccaneers defense that is historically worse against the run vs. pass. A total of 28 RBs had more carries than Mattison (11) on Opening Day.
12. Derrick Henry led all RBs in team share of carries (68.2%), followed by Brian Robinson (67.9%), Ken Walker (66.7%), Jamaal Williams (66.7%), and Josh Jacobs (65.5%).
12b. Henry will be a workhorse to the highest degree this season, but rookie Tyjae Spears is already the passing-down back. Spears ran a route on 41% of the Titans' pass plays, while Henry was on-field for just 16.7% of the pass plays.
Wide Receivers
1. Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle have played in 19 games together. Hill has out-targeted Waddle by a massive 200 to 129 margin.
1b. Hill has played 14 games with Tua Tagovailoa, in which he averages 23.1 PPR points per game.
1c. Cooper Kupp was the WR1 with 22.6 PPR points per game last season.
1d. Hill averaged 18.5 FPG with Patrick Mahomes and 15.3 FPG with Alex Smith in Kansas City.
2. Rams rookie WR Puka Nacua (10/119 receiving) broke out in Week 1 with incredibly strong usage. His 42.9% first-read target share easily led the team over Tutu Atwell (28.6%).
2b. Nacua is the top waiver pickup, but don’t overlook Atwell’s usage either. He ran a route on 84.6% of the pass plays – Nacua was at 87.2%, while Van Jefferson (92.3%) led the team.
2c. Atwell ran 49% of his routes from the slot, while Nacua primarily lined up out wide (73.5%).
3. It seemed as if Calvin Ridley hadn’t missed any time at all with a stellar 8/101/1 performance (11 targets), which was good enough for 24.1 FP (WR5). 3b. The numbers under the hood look even better. Ridley’s usage was bonafide WR1-worthy. Ridley ranked third among all WRs in route share (94.3%), was WR6 in target share (34.4%), and got 49% of the air yards (WR10).
4. Not only is Calvin Ridley the Jaguars' clear WR1, Christian Kirk has been relegated to a slot-only role for now. Kirk ran a route on just 60% of the pass plays, while Ridley (94%) and Zay Jones (82%) were the outside receivers. Kirk played just one snap in 2-WR, 2-TE formations (12-personnel).
5. Jordan Addison got six targets and had the long TD on what was a busted coverage, but he ran (61.7% route share) well behind KJ Osborn (85.1% route share) in Week 1. Addison should take over as the starter in 2-WR sets soon, but he has not yet.
6. Fellow rookie Zay Flowers got strong usage with Mark Andrews (quad) out. Flowers ran a route on 87.1% of the pass plays and was the first read target on a whopping 60% (!!) of Lamar Jackson’s passes. That will obviously regress when Andrews returns, and Flowers’ aDOT (2.6 yards) will have to come up a little bit, but this is as good of a start as you could ask for.
6b. Odell Beckham (74.2%) was the WR2 by route share, but the Ravens went with a full-blown rotation behind OBJ and Flowers. TE Isaiah Likely only ran a route on 54.8% of the pass plays, while Rashod Bateman (48% route share) was very limited as well.
7. Amari Cooper (7 targets, 27.3% first read share) and Elijah Moore (7 targets, 22.7% first read share) operated as Deshaun Watson’s top two targets in their rain-soaked game.
7b. There was a little concern that Moore wouldn’t be a full-time player out of the gates, but that was quickly quelled in Week 1. Moore led the team in route share (85.7%). Cooper (68.7%) left for a few snaps with a minor injury, but Moore’s pathway to breakout is clear.
7c. HC Kevin Stefanski is going to more of a spread, 3-WR scheme this season. The Browns only ran one pass play in 12-personnel (2-WR, 2-TE formations), which Moore was on the field for.
8. The Colts first read target shares were… Pittman (34.6%), Granson (23.1%), Downs (15.4%), and Pierce (7.7%).
8b. However, the Colts did not open up their deep passing game. Anthony Richardson attempted just two passes of 20+ yards (both were incomplete).
9. Just how poorly did Joe Burrow play in Week 1? Only three (3!) of Tee Higgins’ eight targets were catchable. Higgins had one drop. 9b. Burrow fed Higgins with a catchable target 88% of the time last season (fourth-best).
9c. The Bengals have an incredibly easy stretch of defenses in Weeks 3-5 to get this figured out (vs. LAR/TEN/ARI).
10. Ryan Tannehill (16-of-34, 198 yards, 0 TD, 3 INT, 3 sacks) was horrific in Week 1, so frankly, no one on the Titans had much of a chance to do well in fantasy.
10b. The only silver lining is that DeAndre Hopkins got a ridiculous 13 targets (38% share) from Tannehill, which Hopkins shoe-horned into 7/65 receiving.
10c. Hopkins was the first read 42.3% of the time, which was the seventh-highest rate among WRs Week 1.
Tight Ends
1. Your Week 1 leaders in receiving yards: Hunter Henry (56), Luke Musgrave (50), Evan Engram (49), and Tyler Higbee (49).
2. A grand total of 4 TEs scored more than 10 FP in Week 1.
3. Across the previous five Week 1 openers, an average of 12.8 TEs scored more than 10 FP.
4. Kyle Pitts led all receivers in team share of air yards this week (84.2%)… but it was only 48 (!!) total yards from Desmond Ridder. LMFAO.
4a. The good news – if that even exists for Atlanta’s pass game – is that Pitts was a full-time player right out of the gates. His 77.3% route share ranked eighth-highest among tight ends.
5. Yes, Dallas Goedert did play football in Week 1! He ran a route on 86.8% of the team’s dropbacks, but the Patriots made a concerted effort to eliminate him in the pass game, and Jalen Hurts also wasn’t seeing the field well.
5b. Goedert’s route share led all TEs, so we are going right back to him despite the goose egg.
6. Zach Ertz getting 10 targets right out of the gates was not on my bingo card. He looked like a guy who just came off major knee surgery, turning those 10 targets into 21 yards.
6a. Ertz’s 84.8% route share was second-highest among TEs Week 1.
7. I thought Evan Engram might be the one who gets squeezed here with Ridley’s addition, but his route share (82.9% | fourth-highest) was very strong. Engram tied with Cole Kmet for the eighth-highest first read target share (20%) in Week 1.
8. Jake Ferguson could have had a strong Week 1 performance had it not been for two drops. Ferguson was the first read on 26% of the Cowboys' pass plays, which leaves the light on for him as a streamer.
9. The Bills are now a 2-TE offense, but as expected, this looks like a situation where both players will eat into each other’s production. Dalton Kincaid (68% route share) and Dawson Knox (64%) split routes and targets (4 apiece).
10. Chig Okonkwo set a career-high in snap rate (83%) and ran a route on 74% of the team’s pass plays Week 1. Okonkwo ran a route on just 30% of the dropbacks as a rookie. Ryan Tannehill badly overthrew him on a wide-open flea-flicker that would have easily gone for a TD. Better days are ahead here with this strong, full-time usage.
Team Stats
- Seattle ran the fewest plays of the week (46). Geno Smith lost both of his starting tackles, Charles Cross and Abe Lucas, to injuries in the third quarter.
- Here are your Pass Rate over Expectation leaders (via Chris Wecht):
