2023 NFL Touchdowns Props

The 2023 NFL season is slowly starting to come into view, which means more NFL player props are being released with each passing week. Most of the national sportsbooks have posted 2023 NFL Touchdown Props for the league’s top players at the skill positions. In this article, I highlighted four bets I’ve already made and a couple of additional wagers I considered.

Wagering your hard-earned money in the summer and waiting more than half a year for bets to be settled isn’t the easiest pill to swallow. Nevertheless, if we can get the best of the lines before the markets fully mature in the future, it will make the wait until the end of the season worth it in the long run. Make sure to shop around for the best lines and odds if you have access to multiple sportsbooks. You’re likely to see more volatility between books on NFL Futures in the off-season than you’ll see on game lines and player props during the season. Let’s see if we can find some value in these NFL Touchdown Props.

I previously broke down the 2023 NFL Receiving Yardage Props and 2023 NFL Rushing Yardage Props in June, 2023 NFL Passing Yardage Props in late May, NFL MVP race in mid-February, the 2023 NFL Rookie of the Year awards in early May, and NFL Rookie Props in mid-May. Subscribers can see all 41 of the NFL Futures I’ve already bet for the upcoming season.

2023 NFL Passing Touchdown Props

Players are sorted by their Highest Touchdown Total. You should target the Lowest Touchdown Totals for over wagers and the Highest Touchdown Totals for under wagers.

Brolley’s Best Bets

Bryce Young (Car) under 22.5 passing TDs (-110, DraftKings) — The Panthers have finished 20th or worse in PPG in four straight seasons, which means Young will have a difficult task turning around this broken offense as a rookie. The Panthers have a near-league-worst receiving corps after the franchise parted ways with stud D.J. Moore in order to land the No. 1 pick. Adam Thielen is set to be his #1 option after averaging 1.08 YPRR in his age-32 season with the Vikings, and D.J. Chark is the top big-play threat after undergoing yet another surgery for his troublesome ankle. Young missed three games for an AC joint injury in his throwing shoulder in 2022 and he has durability concerns at 5’10”, 204 pounds. Baker Mayfield is the only #1 overall pick in the last decade out of six QBs selected first overall to clear 23+ TD passes as a rookie.

Brolley’s Leans

Josh Allen (Buf) under 32.5 passing TDs (-115, BetMGM) — Allen has reached 35+ passing TDs in three straight seasons, but he’ll be hard-pressed to make it four straight seasons. He’ll face some of the league’s best secondaries six times in divisional matchups against the Jets, Dolphins, and Patriots. Allen’s receiving corps behind Stefon Diggs left a lot to be desired last season, and his mercurial WR is still disgruntled after Buffalo’s stunning loss to the Bengals last postseason. Buffalo also brought in Damien Harris from New England, who is a proven finisher at the goal line with 15 rushing TDs in 2021.

Lamar Jackson (Bal) over 22.5 passing TDs (-110, DraftKings) — Lamar said this spring that OC Todd Monken’s new offense will involve “less running and more throwing.” The Ravens finally threw him a bone by signing Odell Beckham, drafting Zay Flowers, and hiring Monken to call plays, who is an Air Raid guy at heart. Jackson has averaged more than 210+ passing YPG just once in his first four full seasons while averaging 27.5 pass attempts per game in that span. Jackson’s passing volume could dramatically rise, which in turn should lead to more passing TDs. The one concern with betting the ove is that Lamar’s body has broken down in each of the last two seasons with 10 combined missed games.

Daniel Jones (Buf) over 17.5 passing TDs (-110, BetMGM) — We successfully bet Danny Dimes under 21.5 passing touchdowns last season, and there was no sweat involved with just 15 passing scores. I’m going in the opposite direction this season with four TD passes chopped off his prop in 2023. Jones owns a TD rate of just 2.8% in the last three years, but I’m expecting some positive regression in his second season under Brian Daboll. They committed to him for the future by handing him $92 million guaranteed, and the Giants upgraded his receiving corps by adding Darren Waller, Parris Campbell, and Jalin Hyatt.

2023 NFL Rushing Touchdown Props

Players are sorted by their Highest Touchdown Total. You should target the Lowest Touchdown Totals for over wagers and the Highest Touchdown Totals for under wagers.

Brolley’s Best Bets

Travis Etienne (Jax) under 7.5 rushing TDs (-120, DraftKings) — The Jaguars are ready to cut back on Etienne’s workload after he handled 74% of the RB carries following James Robinson’s trade last season. The Jaguars signed D’Ernest Johnson and selected Tank Bigsby in the third round to beef up their RB room behind Etienne. OC Press Taylor said during OTAs the breakdown of snaps and touches won’t be decided until the season, but they don’t want him to total 17+ carries as he did in half of his final 12 games (postseason included). Etienne handled just 44.8% of the team’s carries inside the 5-yard line on his way to scoring five rushing TDs. Doug Pederson could have an open competition for goal-line duties — Bigsby is slightly bigger than Etienne and Johnson — and at the very least he could use a committee approach near the end zone.

Brolley’s Leans

Tony Pollard (Dal) under 8.5 rushing TDs (-110, BetMGM) — I’m already invested in Pollard falling short of his prop of 1100.5 rushing yards, and his rushing touchdown prop is also on the generous side. It’s yet to be seen how much volume he’ll receive with Jerry Jones potentially still in the market for another back. Dalvin Cook and Leonard Fournette are among the RBs still available, and they could even bring back Ezekiel Elliott after releasing him earlier this off-season. Zeke finished sixth in the percentage of the team’s inside the 5-yard line carries (70.4%), which left just 28% of those carries for Pollard — he converted two of his six carries from that range into TDs.

Christian McCaffrey (SF) over 6.5 rushing TDs (-115, Caesars) — We beat the books by betting CMC under 8.5 rushing touchdowns last season. McCaffrey made it a full-blown sweat once he arrived in San Francisco after scoring just twice on the ground in six games with the Panthers. He exploded for six rushing TDs in his final 10 games with San Francisco and eight scores in 13 games with the postseason included. This is just a lean since CMC handled just 50% of the team’s carries inside the 5-yard line with the 49ers in the regular season, and Elijah Mitchell will take away carries if he ever stays healthy.

James Cook (Buf) under 4.5 rushing TDs (-110, BetMGM) — Cook will be elevated to a bigger role in this offense with Devin Singletary bolting for Houston, but it may not translate into rushing TDs. Cook didn’t earn a single carry from inside the 5-yard line on 89 total totes as a rookie, and he’ll be sniped at the goal line by two prolific finishers at their respective positions. Josh Allen has 38 rushing TDs in his first 77 career games, and Buffalo signed Damien Harris to be their early-down runner and he scored 15 rushing TDs in 2021. Cook will have to score on multiple long TD runs to threaten the over on this prop.

2023 NFL Receiving Touchdown Props

Players are sorted by their Highest Touchdown Total. You should target the Lowest Touchdown Totals for over wagers and the Highest Touchdown Totals for under wagers.

Brolley’s Best Bets

Christian Watson (GB) over 4.5 receiving TDs (-110, DraftKings) — The Packers offense has a lot of question marks heading into 2023 with Jordan Love taking over for Aaron Rodgers. One thing that is certain is Watson is the most dynamic piece of this passing attack and one of the league’s top breakout candidates at wide receiver. He scored seven receiving TDs and eight total scores in Weeks 10-13, which matched Randy Moss’ rookie record for the most TDs in a four-game span. He won’t maintain his 13.5% TD rate (7 TDs on 52 targets) from Week 10 on, but he could certainly improve upon his 21.5% target share with Allen Lazard out of the mix. He also saw a promising 7 end-zone targets in that eight-game stretch, which he converted into four scores. Watson has the size (6’4”, 208 pounds) to be a dominant red-zone weapon and the speed (4.36) to score from anywhere on the field.

Van Jefferson (LAR) under 4.5 receiving TDs (-115, DraftKings) — I’m trying to wrap my head around Christian Watson and Jefferson having the same touchdown prop line. They’re currently separated by 107 picks in Underdog ADP but maybe the sportsbooks have information I’m not privy to. Jefferson got lucky in the touchdown department last season, scoring all three of his touchdowns on his only three end-zone targets. He’s at least headed toward a big role with Matthew Stafford back in the lineup, but he’ll be a distant #2 WR behind Cooper Kupp, who owned an NFL-best 29.9% target share in 2022. This prop should be set at 3.5 receiving touchdowns and Fantasy Points has him projected for 3 TDs.

Brolley’s Leans

Mike Evans (TB) under 7.5 receiving TDs (-150, DraftKings) — Evans consistently found himself among the league’s best touchdown scorers at the receiver position with 43 scores in 2018-19, including 27 TDs in 2020-21. He struggled to get on the same page with Tom Brady last season with half of his six touchdown receptions coming in his last game of the season against an undermanned Panthers secondary. Evans enters his 30s this season with Baker Mayfield and Kyle Trask at quarterback, which means his days of scoring 8+ TDs are likely behind him. The extra juice to the under is keeping me away from this bet.

Courtland Sutton (Den) under 5.5 receiving TDs (-125, BetMGM) — Sutton’s future with the Broncos has been in limbo this off-season with new HC Sean Payton exploring his trade market. Russell Wilson currently has Sutton, Jerry Jeudy, Marvin Mims, Tim Patrick, Greg Dulcich, and Marquez Callaway at his disposal at receiver. Sutton has scored just four TDs on 213 targets in his last 33 games in 2020-22, but this is just a lean since he could be due for positive regression after scoring just two touchdowns on 14 end-zone targets last season (per Fantasy Points Data).