I recently wrapped up my 2023 NFL Betting Previews for all 32 teams, and I’d encourage you to check them out for in-depth breakdowns of season win totals, Super Bowl odds, individual player props, and much more. With those previews done, it’s time to take a look at the 2023 NFL Receiving Leader Futures to see if we can’t pick out a winner or two. Everyone likes to lay a little bit of money to win a lot of money, and I’ve come up with my favorite plays for each of the major leader futures for passers, runners, and receivers.
Justin Jefferson continued his torrid start to his career by leading the NFL with 1809 receiving yards (+800) and 128 receptions (+900). Davante Adams moved from Green Bay to Las Vegas last year and he paced the league with 14 receiving TDs (+900) for the second time in the last three seasons.
Jefferson is the favorite to repeat with the most receiving yards (+550), Cooper Kupp is the top option in receptions (+500), and Ja’Marr Chase is the favorite to score the most receiving TDs (+400). Adams, Stefon Diggs, and Tyreek Hill are among the other top contenders in the three receiving leader futures.
The odds in this article are courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook — under NFL/League Leaders. Historical odds are courtesy of SportsOddsHistory.
Receiving Yards
Previous Leaders
| Year | Receiver (Age) | Receiving Yards | Odds (rank) |
| 2022 | Justin Jefferson (23) | 1809 | +800 (1st) |
| 2021 | Cooper Kupp (28) | 1947 | +3500 (t-19th) |
| 2020 | Stefon Diggs, Buf (26) | 1535 | +5000 (t-25th) |
| 2019 | Michael Thomas, NO (26) | 1725 | +1000 (4th) |
| 2018 | Julio Jones, Atl (29) | 1677 | +400 (2nd) |
| 2017 | Antonio Brown, Pit (29) | 1533 | +375 (1st) |
| 2016 | T.Y. Hilton, Ind (26) | 1448 | +2600 (9th) |
| 2015 | Julio Jones, Atl (26) | 1871 | +600 (1st) |
| 2014 | Antonio Brown, Pit (26) | 1698 | +1600 (7th) |
| 2013 | Josh Gordon, Cle (22) | 1646 | Off the Board |
Historical Hints
The favorite has led the league in receiving yards four times in the last decade. Jefferson became the youngest receiver to pace the NFL in receiving yards since Josh Gordon came from out of nowhere to do it in 2013. Stefon Diggs (+5000) and Cooper Kupp (+3500) were long-shot winners in 2020-21, and they both did it after major changes before their monster campaigns. The Rams traded for Matthew Stafford before Kupp’s season, and Diggs went from Minnesota to Buffalo prior to his standout season.
A pace of at least 100 yards per game has been needed to lead the league in three of the last four years and seven times in the last decade. Younger receivers have had the most success leading the league in receiving yards, with seven of the last 10 winners checking in at 26 years old or younger.
Fantasy Points Projections Top 10
| Receiver | Projection | Odds |
| Justin Jefferson (Min) | 1585 | +550 |
| Ja’Marr Chase (Cin) | 1445 | +600 |
| Cooper Kupp (LAR) | 1365 | +800 |
| Tyreek Hill (Mia) | 1365 | +900 |
| Stefon Diggs (Buf) | 1250 | +2000 |
| CeeDee Lamb (Dal) | 1245 | +2200 |
| Jaylen Waddle (Mia) | 1215 | +3000 |
| A.J. Brown (Phi) | 1205 | +2500 |
| Travis Kelce (KC) | 1185 | +2200 |
| Garrett Wilson (NYJ) | 1185 | +2000 |
The Favorites
Justin Jefferson (+550) will look to make it back-to-back years with the most receiving yards after posting 1809 yards in 2022. Sportsbooks have installed him as the favorite for the second straight year after finishing inside the top four in yards in each of his first three seasons. Jefferson bested the next closest receiver, Tyreek Hill (+900), by 99 yards. Hill checks in as the fourth favorite in his second season with the Dolphins. He’s the only other receiver who averaged more than 100+ receiving YPG last season, and he has the most value in this range.
Ja’Marr Chase (+600) and Cooper Kupp (+800) are the other receivers with odds at +900 or shorter. Chase managed 1046 yards in 12 games, averaging the sixth-most receiving YPG (87.2), while Kupp managed 812 receiving yards in just nine games last season. He previously led the league in 2021 with 1947 receiving yards to cash the 19th-longest at +3500.
The Contenders
Garrett Wilson (+2000) is getting plenty of love with Aaron Rodgers heading to the Big Apple. Wilson finished his rookie season with 1103 receiving yards despite seeing just 4.8 catchable targets per game in Zach Wilson’s eight starts, per our Graham Barfield using Fantasy Points Data.
Fellow second-year WR and Ohio State teammate, Chris Olave (+3000), is an intriguing contender after averaging 2.49 YPPR and with the Saints skewing more pass-heavy with Derek Carr taking over for Andy Dalton. Dalton averaged just 27.0 attempts per game in his 14 starts while Carr has averaged 34.9 attempts per game to start his career.
I initially considered betting A.J. Brown (+2500) at his longer odds after averaging the second-mos YPRR (2.94). I was a little turned off by the narrow gap in first-read rate between Brown (32.1%) and Devonta Smith (29.0%), who owns +4500 odds to lead the league in receiving yards.
Dark Horses
Christian Watson (+5000) and Calvin Ridley (+5000) are my two favorite long-shot options in this category. Watson led WRs in YPRR (2.83) and ranked ninth in explosive play rate (23%) from Week 10 through the end of last season, per our Chris Wecht using Fantasy Points Data. The problem is Jordan Love is lined to throw for just 3350.5 passing yards by DraftKings Sportsbook.
Ridley is a complete wild card in his first action since October 2021, but he ranked fourth in receiving YPG (91.6) and sixth in first-read rate (33.3%) in his last full season in 2020. He has more competition for targets this time around, but at least Trevor Lawrence has the eighth-best odds to lead the NFL in passing yards.
Receiving Touchdowns
Previous Leaders
| Year | Receiver (Age) | Receiving TDs | Odds (rank) |
| 2022 | Davante Adams, LV (29) | 14 | +900 (t-3rd) |
| 2021 | Cooper Kupp, LAR (28) | 16 | +6600 (t-25th) |
| 2020 | Davante Adams, GB (27) | 18 | +1000 (t-2nd) |
| 2019 | Kenny Golladay, Det (25) | 11 | +6500 (t-40th) |
| 2018 | Antonio Brown, Pit (30) | 15 | +420 (1st) |
| 2017 | DeAndre Hopkins, Hou (25) | 13 | +3300 (t-14th) |
| 2016 | Jordy Nelson, GB (31) | 14 | N/A |
| 2015 | D. Baldwin, Sea (26)/B. Marshall, NYJ (31) | 14 | N/A |
| 2014 | Dez Bryant, Dal (25) | 16 | N/A |
| 2013 | Jimmy Graham, NO (26) | 16 | N/A |
Historical Hints
We have odds for only the last six years at our disposal, but the league leader in receiving touchdowns has either come from way off the pack or from the top two favorites. DeAndre Hopkins (2017), Kenny Golladay (2019), and Cooper Kupp (2021) each hit at +3300 odds or longer. Antonio Brown (+420) and Davante Adams (+1000) led the league as chalk in 2018 and 2020, respectively. Adams is the only player in the last decade to lead the league in receiving TDs more than once. The NFL’s receiving touchdown leader has reached 14+ touchdowns in eight of the previous 10 seasons.
Fantasy Points Projections Top 10
| Receiver | Projection | Odds |
| Ja’Marr Chase (Cin) | 13 | +400 |
| Travis Kelce (KC) | 12 | +500 |
| Justin Jefferson (Min) | 10 | +1200 |
| Cooper Kupp (LAR) | 10 | +550 |
| Tyreek Hill (Mia) | 10 | +2200 |
| A.J. Brown (Phi) | 10 | +1500 |
| Stefon Diggs (Buf) | 9 | +1200 |
| Mark Andrews (Bal) | 9 | +6000 |
| Garrett Wilson (NYJ) | 8 | +2200 |
| Davante Adams (LV) | 8 | +1400 |
The Favorites
It’s a three-receiver race at the top-most receiving touchdown leaderboard. Ja’Marr Chase (+400) is the leader entering the season after scoring 22 TDs in his first 29 games, and he saw the second-most end-zone targets per game with 1.3 last year (per Fantasy Points Data). Travis Kelce (+500) is representing the tight end at the top of the board after scoring 9+ TDs in four of his last five seasons. He topped out at a career-best 12 scores last season despite seeing just 9 end-zone targets. Cooper Kupp (+550) is the only other receiver listed shorter than +1200 odds after leading the NFL with 16 receiving scores in 2021.
The Contenders
I’ve already wagered on Justin Jefferson (+1200) to pace the league in receiving TDs. Jefferson ranked at the top of the position in expected touchdowns with about 12 TDs overall, but he finished with 8 receiving TDs in reality. Jefferson’s top competition for goal-line work is gone from the start of 2022, and Kirk Cousins is lined to be among the league leaders in TD passes at 30.5.
I also wagered D.K. Metcalf (+2500) to lead the league in receiving touchdowns after he led the NFL with 22 end-zone targets in his first season with Geno Smith (per Fantasy Points Data). He converted just five of those looks into touchdowns, but that connection has the potential to get stronger in Year 2. Metcalf scored just six times despite his elite goal-line usage before scoring twice in Seattle’s Wild Card loss to the 49ers. At 6’4”, 235 pounds, he’s been a handful for smaller CBs in the past with 22 TDs in 2020-21, and his 4.33-second speed makes him a threat to score from anywhere on the field — 8 of his 35 career scores have come from 35+ yards away.
Davante Adams (+1400) has longer odds than you’d expect for a receiver with 43 receiving TDs over the last three years, which helped him to win receiving TD titles in 2020 and 2022. His quarterbacks keep getting worse the last three seasons, with Jimmy Garoppolo the next in line following Derek Carr and Aaron Rodgers.
Dark Horses
We’ve seen some longer shots lead the league in receiving touchdowns, and Mark Andrews (+6000) and Michael Thomas (+10000) are two options that stand out to me. Andrews had 7+ TDs in 2019-21, with 26 total receiving TDs in that span before scoring just five times last season, with Lamar Jackson missing significant time for the second straight season. Andrews has more target competition from the likes of Odell Beckham (+4000) and Zay Flowers (+10000), but he could have more opportunities for touchdown receptions in Baltimore’s new-look offense. The Ravens are expected to pick up their pace of play and throw it more under new OC Todd Monken.
I’d also consider Thomas if you’re looking to take a deep stab at this category. He’s been unable to stay healthy in recent years, but there was a time when he had 9 receiving TDs in three of his first four seasons. He opened 2022 with 3 receiving TDs in the first three games before never appearing in another game. The Saints should throw it more with Derek Carr taking over for Andy Dalton, and they have the NFL’s easiest schedule based on win totals, so Thomas could surprise if he’s actually able to stay healthy.
Receptions
Previous Leaders
| Year | Wide Receiver (Age) | Receptions | Odds (rank) |
| 2022 | Justin Jefferson, Min (23) | 128 | +900 (t-3rd) |
| 2021 | Cooper Kupp, LAR (28) | 145 | +2000 (t-9th) |
| 2020 | Stefon Diggs, Buf (26) | 127 | +6600 (38th) |
| 2019 | Michael Thomas, NO (26) | 149 | +350 (1st) |
| 2018 | Michael Thomas, NO (25) | 125 | +1600 (t5th) |
| 2017 | Jarvis Landry, Cle (24) | 112 | +1000 (t-4th) |
| 2016 | Larry Fitzgerald, Ari (33) | 107 | N/A |
| 2015 | A. Brown, Pit (27)/J. Jones, Atl (26) | 136 | N/A |
| 2014 | Antonio Brown, Pit (26) | 129 | N/A |
| 2013 | Pierre Garcon, Was (27) | 113 | N/A |
Historical Hints
We have odds from only the last six seasons, but this has mostly been a market to look at the top of the board. Stefon Diggs (+6600) in 2020 is the one major longshot to lead the league in receptions, and Michael Thomas (+350) in 2019 is the one favorite to take home the honors. The other four league leaders in our small sample have come from the +900-2000 range in the last five seasons. The leader has been required to get to 125+ catches in each of the last five years and in seven of the last nine seasons. Five of the last six leaders have checked in at 26 years old or younger, with Cooper Kupp being the lone exception at 28 years old.
Fantasy Points’ Projections Top 10
| Receiver | Projection | Odds |
| Cooper Kupp (LAR) | 115 | +500 |
| Justin Jefferson (Min) | 110 | +650 |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown (Det) | 103 | +1800 |
| Tyreek Hill (Mia) | 100 | +800 |
| Ja’Marr Chase (Cin) | 97 | +600 |
| Travis Kelce (KC) | 97 | +1100 |
| CeeDee Lamb (Dal) | 95 | +2000 |
| Stefon Diggs (Buf) | 93 | +1200 |
| Davante Adams (LV) | 87 | +750 |
| T.J. Hockenson (Min) | 86 | +3500 |
The Favorites
This receiving category is the most wide open at the top of the board, with five players listed +800 odds or shorter. Cooper Kupp (+500) has the best odds to lead the league in receptions after doing it back in 2021 with 145 catches. He also easily paced the league with 8.3 catches per game last season, ranking ahead of the eventual receptions king Justin Jefferson (+650), who comes into this season with the third-best odds. JJ’s receptions have risen by 20 catches in each of his first three seasons (88<108<128).
Ja’Marr Chase (+600) saw his YPR plummet from 18.0 to 12.0 yards in his second season, but he finished with six more receptions (81<87) despite playing five fewer games. Chase’s aDOT dropped from 13.4 yards in 2021 to 9.8 yards in 2022 (per Fantasy Points Data) with the Bengals transitioning to a quicker passing attack to better protect Joe Burrow. Davante Adams (+750) has cleared 100+ catches in four of his last five seasons, but he’s never paced the league in receptions. Tyreek Hill (+800) rounds out the big five at the top of the board after setting career-high in receptions (119), targets (170), and receiving yards (1710) in his first season in Mike McDaniel’s offense.
The Contenders
I bet Amon-Ra St. Brown (+1800) to lead the league in receptions last season, and I’m going back to the well once again. He collected 106 catches despite missing one game and running just 16 combined routes in the proceeding two games because of an ankle injury. He’s a perfect fit with Jared Goff’s skill set, who has loved targeting slot receivers back to his days with the Rams. He attempted the fourth-most passes from 0-9 yards with 266, and St. Brown finished behind only Hill with .31 targets per route run (per Fantasy Points Data). The Lions have no established #2 receiver, also.
Dark Horses
Marquise Brown (+8000) is the most intriguing long shot on the board, and I’m willing to put a small wager on him at his odds. He averaged 5.6 receptions per game last season and is the clear top target remaining for Arizona’s quarterbacks with DeAndre Hopkins (+5000) gone. Hollywood previously commanded a 24.5% target share with the Ravens in 2021 when he turned 146 targets into 91 receptions. He then had the fifth-most receptions with 43 through the first six weeks last season before he suffered a foot injury and before Nuk’s return to the lineup. Hollywood could be the king of garbage-time catches, with the Cardinals the favorites to finish with the NFL’s fewest wins (+200).
Best Bets
Justin Jefferson (Min) most receiving touchdowns (+1500, DraftKings). Risk one unit to win 15 units. Placed July 13.
D.K. Metcalf (Sea) most receiving touchdowns (+2500, DraftKings). Risk .5 units to win 12.5 units. Placed July 28.
Amon-Ra St. Brown (Det) most receptions (+2000, BetMGM). Risk one unit to win 20 units. Placed July 28.
Marquise Brown (Ari) most receptions (+8000, DraftKings). Risk .2 to win 16 units. Placed July 28.
