DFS Early Look: Week 6

Week 5 of the NFL regular season just wrapped up, and that means Week 6 is just around the corner. As my readers likely know, DFS is the best version of fantasy football, and since DraftKings and FanDuel have released their Week 6 prices, it’s time to track down the obvious values and best plays.

Here are the plays that jump out to me for Week 6 DFS:

Josh Allen, QB, Buffalo Bills (@ KC)

DraftKings: $8,200 (QB1) | Fanduel: $9,200 (QB1)

Josh Allen is having a season for the ages – averaging +1.6 more FPG than the greatest QB fantasy season ever (2019 Lamar Jackson), while becoming the runaway favorite for MVP (+200). Buffalo leads the NFL in pass rate over expectation, despite winning three of their five games by 21 points or more, showcasing just how aggressive the Bills have been throwing the ball this season.

For Week 6, the league’s most aggressive offense and most fantasy-friendly QB get a matchup that just screams shootout, as their game against Kansas City offers the highest total of the week (53.5) – and, arguably more important: an opposing offense that can keep pace with Buffalo. Remember, Buffalo has thrown the ball nearly 48% more in their two close games compared to their three blowout wins this year.

And, Josh Allen has historically dominated high-total games, averaging an insane 31.3 DraftKings FPG and 30.1 Fanduel FPG in his 12 games over the last three years with a total of 52.0 or higher – scoring over 30.0 DraftKings points in 58% of those games.

So, this is the ideal spot to play Allen. He’s easily still $1,000 too cheap on DraftKings and he’s playing in what should be the game of the year, at least from an offensive perspective. Expect his ownership in Week 6 to reflect that.

Alvin Kamara, RB, New Orleans Saints (VS. CIN)

DraftKings: $6,700 (RB9) | Fanduel: $8,100 (RB6)

Kamara is finally healthy, which means he’s back to being one of the most efficient fantasy RBs of all time. In Week 5, Kamara handled 73% of snaps, earning 29 touches and falling just 6 receiving yards short of earning the 100-yard bonus for rushing and receiving – ending the day with 23.4 FPs despite Taysom Hill stealing three rushing TDs.

And, if Kamara is back to his old self, then he’s just massively underpriced, as his average salary last season ($8,214) is $1,500 more than his Week 6 price tag. Excluding last week, the last time we had a chance to roster Kamara this cheaply on DraftKings was Week 9 of 2017, nearly five years ago.

Rhamondre Stevenson, RB, New England Patriots (@ CLE)

DraftKings: $6,000 (RB14) | Fanduel: $7,500 (RB9)

Damien Harris suffered a hamstring injury that calls his Week 6 status into question, and it doens’t appear Ty Montgomery will return to practice this week, leaving Rhamondre Stevenson as the presumptive bell cow – given he played every backfield snap after Harris went down – in the league’s 7th-most productive backfield (24.2 FPG). And, the matchup for Stevenson really couldn’t be much better. The Browns rank dead last in PFF run defense grade (34.8), 3rd-worst in FPG allowed to opposing RBs (29.5), and 5th-worst in opponent rush yards per game (138.2). Assuming Harris and Montgomery don’t play, Stevenson will easily be one of the most popular RB plays of the week, especially on DraftKings.

Devin Singletary, RB, Buffalo Bills (@ KC)

DraftKings: $5,900 (RB17) | Fanduel: $5,700 (RB32)

Devin Singletary appears to be a bell cow, but only in big games. Singletary has averaged 17.5 opportunities per game and 7.5 targets per game in the Bills’ pair of one-score games, but he’s averaged just 12.5 opportunities and 2.5 targets per game in the Bills’ three blowout wins. If the “Devin Singletary is only a bell cow in big games” thesis is true, then he’s egregiously underpriced in what should be the Bills’ biggest game of the season against Kansas City. Singeltary has averaged 20.1 XFP/G in close games thus far, and I won’t let ~RB2 levels of usage go under-owned in a game that could be the highest-scoring of the season.

Raheem Mostert, RB, Miami Dolphins (VS. MIN)

DraftKings: $5,700 (RB20) | Fanduel: $6,500 (RB18)

Raheem Mostert has seen his usage increase every week this season, culminating in a 69% snap share and 64% of backfield opportunities in Week 5. But, not only is Mostert seeing a strong workload, he’s also one of the most efficient RBs of all time, historically speaking.

Among RBs with at least 200 career rush attempts, Raheem Mostert’s 5.5 career YPC ranks 4th-best all-time, besting players like Bo Jackson, Nick Chubb, and Jamaal Charles. Simple put: Raheem Mostert is an extremely good rusher of the football, and one that would generally expect to exceed his usage-based expectation, at least on the ground. So, now that he’s Miami’s lead RB, even in games with negative gamescript, he jumps out as underpriced for Week 6.

With that said, Miami’s QB situation will decide just how good of a play Mostert ends up being this week. Like all RBs, Mostert’s true slate-breaking games will be achieved by finding the end zone, and it’s difficult to see a ton of TD opportunities for anybody on Miami if 3rd-string QB Skylar Thompson is forced to start while Teddy Bridgewater and Tua Tagovailoa deal with concussions. So, keep an eye on the health of Bridgwater and Tagovaila before deciding just how much of the Mosteratti to play against Minnesota, who has given up the 11th-most FPG to opposing RBs this year (24.7).

Marquise Brown, WR, Arizona Cardinals (@ SEA)

DraftKings: $7,200 (WR7) | Fanduel: $8,200 (WR4)

Hollywood Brown is seeing elite volume, averaging the 2nd-most targets per game (11.0) of any WR, and having logged double-digit targets in four consecutive games. But that’s not all that makes him stand out as a play this week, he also draws an elite matchup against a Seattle secondary that’s graded as the 2nd-worst in coverage this season (42.0 team coverage grade), in the 2nd-highest total game of the week (51.5). I’d anticipate heavy ownership for Brown in a contest that DFS players will be heavily targeting for game stacks.

DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett, WRs, Seattle Seahawks (VS. ARI)

This seems almost unbelievable, but there isn’t an NFL QB throwing the ball better than Geno Smith right now. He’s PFF’s highest-graded passer (87.9), ranks 3rd-best in EPA per play (0.19), and is averaging 38.4 more passing YPG than Russell Wilson did last year. As a result, Tyler Lockett and DK Metcalf are even better fantasy assets than they were last season, and I noted last week that each player was seeing usage in 2022 that either met (Tyler Lockett) or exceeded (DK Metcalf) their usage from last season. Lockett, specifically, is seeing far better usage than his current DraftKings salary ($5,600, WR20) implies, as he ranks 16th in target share (26%), 9th in targets of 20 or more yards, and 9th in receiving yards (406).

For Week 6, the dynamic pass game of the Seahawks gets a dream matchup against an Arizona Cardinals secondary that ranks dead last in PFF pass coverage grades (36.8), in a game with the 2nd-highest total of the slate (51.5). Expect these Seattle WRs to be chalk.

George Pickens, WR, Pittsburgh Steelers (VS. TB)

DraftKings: $4,600 (WR39) | Fanduel: $5,800 (WR31)

Pickens’ usage has seen a notable uptick with rookie Kenny Pickett under center, and while we can’t call Pickens Pittsburgh’s WR1 by any stretch, we can call him a value relative to his Week 6 DraftKings salary. Pickens has seen 8 targets in each of his last two games, averaging a solid 15.3 FPG over that stretch. But, I think one of the most crucial notes for Pickens in Week 6 is the likelihood of significant negative gamescipt, as Pittsburgh is a 9.0-point underdog to Tampa this week. Double-digit targets are absolutely on the table for Pickens in Week 6 assuming Pittsburgh falls behind in this contest, which is a near guarantee.

Cade Otton, TE, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (@ PIT)

DraftKings: $2,900 (TE23) | Fanduel: $5,000 (TE12)

Tampa is back to throwing the ball at a league-high rate, and Cade Otton is their bell cow TE until Cameron Brate comes back from his concussion – a process that may take longer than we’ve grown accustomed to given the new NFL concussion protocols. In Week 5, Otton logged a 94% snap share, a team-leading 93% route share, and 7 targets for a 13% target share. At least on DraftKings, Otton is a screaming value in his current role.