DFS Early Look: Week 3

Week 2 of the NFL regular season just wrapped up, and that means Week 3 is just around the corner. As my readers likely know, DFS is the best version of fantasy football, and since DraftKings and FanDuel have released their Week 3 prices, it’s time to track down the obvious values and best plays.

Here are the plays that jump out to me for Week 3 DFS:

Tua Tagovailoa, QB, Miami Dolphins (VS. BUF)

DraftKings: $6,100 (QB12) | Fanduel: $7,300 (QB13)

Through 2 weeks, the Miami Dolphins offer the league’s 3rd-highest pass rate over expectation, and the results for Tua Tagovailoa have been nothing short of outstanding. Tua leads the league in both passing yards (739) and TDs (7) after having attempted the 4th-most passes. Tagovailoa isn’t at all regarded as an elite QB, and his 71.1 PFF passing grade certainly doesn’t suggest he’s playing like one, but that doesn’t matter when his top two WRs rank 1st and 2nd in yards after the catch, respectively.

2022 Tua needs to be regarded as an elite DFS play in every contest he plays in that has the potential to shoot out. And, he’ll be playing in the slate’s 2nd-highest total game (51.0) against Buffalo in Week 2. It’s another great spot for a QB who just needs to find his WRs in open space to put up mind-boggling passing numbers.

Joe Mixon, RB, Cincinnati Bengals (@ NYJ)

DraftKings: $7,600 (RB6) | Fanduel: $8,200 (RB6)

Mixon has earned 89% of backfield opportunities, a 74% snap share, and 68% of backfield routes through 2 weeks – an extremely favorable workload, especially in positive gamescript. And, thankfully for Mixon, the Bengals are 4.5-point favorites in Week 2 against a run defense that gave up 19.2 rushing FPG to opposing RBs last season (worst), and has given up 27.1 FPG to opposing RBs this season (10th-worst). And, when favored by 3.0-points or more since 2020, Mixon has averaged 20.5 FPG (~RB4), compared to just 17.4 FPG (~RB9) outside of that split. He should be a popular play this week given the strong matchup combined with likely positive gamescript.

David Montgomery, RB, Chicago Bears (VS. HOU)

DraftKings: $5,900 (RB16) | Fanduel: $7,100 (RB11)

The Chicago offense currently leads the NFL in rush rate above expectation, and they draw close to a perfect matchup facing the league’s worst-graded run defense (31.9 run defense grade) as 2.5-point favorites. So far this year, Houston is giving up 162.0 rushing YPG (4th-most), and 34.5 rushing attempts per game (3rd-most). Over the last 2 seasons, Montgomery has averaged a very impressive 19.6 DraftKings FPG (~RB4) and 17.9 Fanduel FPG (~RB4) as a favorite (7 instances), going over 20.0 DraftKings points in 71% of those outings.

Raheem Mostert, RB, Miami Dolphins (VS. BUF)

DraftKings: $4,500 (RB53) | Fanduel: $5,500 (RB38)

Mostert earned a 55% snap share in Week 2 (21st among all RBs) and worked as the Dolphins' lead RB, capturing 54% of backfield opportunities. That’s obviously far from an elite workload, but it’s still rather stellar usage relative to Mostert’s RB45 Week 3 price tag on DraftKings, especially ahead of the slate’s 2nd-highest total game (51.0) against the Buffalo Bills. Mostert has scored over 23.0 FPs in 30% of the games he’s earned 12 or more carries, which showcases his potential upside on relatively meager workloads. Factor in a solid route share and a potential shootout, and it’s easy to see why DFS players will likely drift towards Mostert as a salary-saving RB this week.

Amon-Ra St. Brown, WR, Detroit Lions (@ MIN)

DraftKings: $7,200 (WR8) | Fanduel: $7,800 (WR8)

After an eight-game stretch over which Amon-Ra St. Brown has seen double-digit targets in every game and has averaged 26.4 FPG, why are we not talking about him as a candidate to be the overall WR1 this season? Keep in mind that across all of 2021, only nine players earned double-digit targets in 8 or more games. And St. Brown has done that in 8 consecutive games.

For Week 2, St. Brown draws a pass defense that allowed the most FPG to opposing slots last season (17.0), in the best scoring environment (O/U: 52.5) of the slate. If he maintains this volume, he’s going to be $9,000 on DraftKings and Fanduel in no time. I’m going to be all over the Sun God until his price catches up to his outstanding usage and production.

Jaylen Waddle, WR, Miami Dolphins (VS. BUF)

DraftKings: $6,800 (WR10) | Fanduel: $7,500 (WR10)

Miami is throwing the ball as much as any team in the league, and the Dolphins’ WRs have seemingly limitless opportunities after the catch. So far this season, Waddle has accounted for 30% of Miami’s targets, averaging 12.0 per game (6th-most), while racking up 240 receiving yards (2nd-most to only teammate Tyreek Hill). Waddle offers single-game upside that’s only rivaled by WRs who cost $1,000 more than him on DraftKings, and he’s playing in the 2nd-highest total game of the slate. The Miami passing attack still isn’t close to being appropriately priced, and I plan on taking advantage of that again in Week 3.

Curtis Samuel, WR, Washington Commanders (VS. PHI)

DraftKings: $5,100 (WR39) | Fanduel: $6,300 (WR26)

Curtis Samuel has accounted for 43% of all targets to Washington WRs this season, a truly impressive feat for a player who largely went undrafted this offseason due to injury concerns. Well, not only is Samuel healthy, but he’s earned the 12th-most targets and 10th-most FPG (21.0) in the NFL through 2 weeks. And this hasn’t happened just due to passing variance, as Washington clearly wants to scheme Samuel touches, giving him 10 total screens and carries this season, 2nd only to Deebo Samuel (18). Now, the WR with arguably the 2nd-highest touch floor in the NFL is facing Philadelphia, in a game that’s tied for the 2nd-highest total of the slate (51.0). Expect heavy ownership in a game that could lead to fireworks for Samuel in Week 3.

Chris Olave, WR, New Orleans Saints (@ CAR)

DraftKings: $4,500 (WR54) | Fanduel: $5,500 (WR54)

Olave has pulled in a 22% target share through 2 weeks, but more impressively, he leads the entire NFL in deep targets (7); granted, he’s only caught two of those passes thus far. Olave is clearly cemented as a starter given his 84% route share, and his 16 total targets are just 1 fewer than Saints receiving leader Michael Thomas. For Week 2, the scoring environment (O/U: 40.5) and matchup are far from ideal, but Olave’s workload relative to his price tag is among the best on the slate, and his elite deep role gives him slate-winning single-game upside.

Juwan Johnson, TE, New Orleans Saints (@ CAR)

DraftKings: $2,900 (TE25) | Fanduel: $4,800 (TE20)

Another week of DFS, another opportunity to punt TE. There are only six TEs in the entire NFL who have run more routes through 2 weeks than Juwan Johnson (65). And, Johnson ranks 11th in TE targets (12), 8th in TE receiving yards (83), and 13th in TE target share (17%). He’s not an eye-popping play in a subpar game environment, but he’s a clear value and the best way to punt TE in Week 3.