Welcome to Week 7 Start ‘Em, Sit ‘Em.
This game-by-game article breaks down every player that is relevant for fantasy football. As always, please use our projections to make your start/sit decisions every week. The analysis in this piece provides color – and a lot of stats – behind the projections.
Unless stated otherwise, all of the data in this article is from Fantasy Points Data and specifically curated from the Data Suite. Our collection team has charted every play from every game over the last three seasons, and we will have fresh, weekly data imported into the tools on Monday after the games.
The Start’ Em, Sit ‘Em key
Must Start — Don’t take them out of your lineup, even if there is a fire.
Start ‘Em — The top-12 at QB and TE; top-20 plays at RB; top-25 at WR.
FLEX Plays — All of the best RB2/WR3 plays.
Stream ‘Em — The best one-week plays at QB and TE for streaming off of the waiver wire.
Sit ‘Em — Don’t play them in your lineups. This could be due to a poor role, matchup, or performance.
Stash ‘Em — Step 1: Hold them on your bench. Step 2: Profit.
Good luck this week!
Denver Broncos at New Orleans Saints (TNF)
Must Start
Alvin Kamara – With Derek Carr out 2-3 more weeks, Olave in concussion protocol, Taysom Hill dealing with cracked ribs, and now Rashid Shaheed (knee) out for the season — the Saints are left with Alvin Kamara left as their only key piece left healthy. Kamara’s efficiency nosedived to a season-low 3.4 yards per touch without Carr last week, but his volume is just so bankable. Kamara tied for the team lead in targets (8) with Rattler under center.
FLEX Plays
Javonte Williams – The rookie Audric Estime returned last week, but Williams continued to stay ahead here. In fact, he’s coming off of a season-high 68% of the snaps. His volume remains shaky long-term, but this is an incredible spot for him to bust the TD drought. The Saints have been absolutely shredded to the tune of 92/566/5 rushing (6.2 YPC) to Eagles, Falcons, Chiefs, and Buccaneers RBs over the last month.
Courtland Sutton – Overall, the volume remains amazing here. Sutton is WR15 in first read target share (33%) and also WR15 by expected PPR points per game (15.2). Nix is showing signs of improvement, but Sutton is still dealing with some of the least-accurate QB play in the league. Just 59% of his targets have been catchable, and that’s the third-lowest rate among wide receivers. Opposing offenses are just full-on avoiding Marshon Lattimore’s side in coverage and are just attacking the rest of their secondary. Lattimore stays on the right side and will not shadow Sutton. New Orleans is getting blasted for the fifth-most yards per game to opposing outside receivers (122.3).
Sit ‘Em
Bo Nix – SuperFlex only.
Spencer Rattler – Predictably struggled in the Saints’ loss to the Buccaneers as he completed just over 50% of his throws for 6.1 YPA with 1 TD, 2 INT, and 5 sacks. Tampa blitzed Rattler on 42% of his dropbacks last week, and this is an even more difficult matchup. Denver blitzes at the second-highest rate (39%) and they’re forcing the third-highest sack rate (10.3%) as a result.
Bub Means – Led the Saints in first-read targets (27%) with a 5/45/1 receiving result last week.
Taysom Hill – Doubtful to play. Dealing with cracked ribs.
Devaughn Vele
Cedrick Wilson
Lucas Krull
Troy Franklin
Stash ‘Em
Juwan Johnson – In deeper leagues and TE premium leagues. Johnson’s route share has increased in five straight games (18% > 44% > 58% > 68% > 73%).
Jacksonville Jaguars at New England Patriots (London | 9:30a kickoff)
Start ‘Em
Evan Engram – After he missed a month with a hamstring injury, Engram returned in Week 6, and he was the lone bright spot for the Jaguars on a miserable day. Engram led the team in targets (10) and looked explosive after the catch, tallying up 10/102 receiving. He did lose a fumble, but that ended up being inconsequential because of how bad the blowout vs. Chicago was. Jacksonville’s targets will not be concentrated and will be inconsistent at times because of how many good receivers they have, but Engram has now tied or led the team in first read targets in his two games played this year. Engram tied for the team lead in first read target share (25%) in Week 1, and he easily led the Jaguars with a 28% FR share in Week 6.
Brian Thomas – It was a day for “what if” last week after Lawrence underthrew him for a 40+ yard completion, and the rookie later dropped a would-be TD in the end zone. Christian Gonzalez will likely travel with Thomas on Sunday, but the Patriots CB has been up and down this season. Gonzalez was shut down in Week 1 vs. Ja’Marr Chase, but he’s since been picked on with 22/251/3 receiving allowed on 41 targets in his primary coverage over his last five games. Thomas remains an upside WR2.
FLEX Plays
Tank Bigsby – Things have gone from bad to worse for Travis Etienne. Not only is Tank Bigsby breathing down his neck to try and take his job, but Etienne was already battling through an injury. He hurt his shoulder back in Week 4 vs. Houston. After taking three carries (-1 yard) against Chicago, Etienne injured his hamstring, and he didn’t return to the game. Jaguars HC Doug Pederson said on Monday that Etienne is “week-to-week” with the strained hammy. Keep in mind, Jacksonville is not returning state-side after losing in London. They’re staying in the U.K. for their “home” matchup against the Patriots in Week 7. Tank Bigsby flopped (7/24 rushing) against Chicago, but the Jaguars were getting smoked and couldn’t really try to run the ball in the second half. Jacksonville doesn’t want to play Bigsby in the pass game, though. That will continue to hold him back for fantasy football. Bigsby ran far fewer routes (4) than D’Ernest Johnson last week (21), and he has yet to be involved on more than 15% of the pass plays in a single game this season.
Christian Kirk – This is a far better matchup for Kirk than last week was, but my fears were confirmed again. Based on how HC Doug Pederson’s offense runs, Kirk is still the most likely receiver to his targets impacted by Engram’s return. Brian Thomas’ emergence demotes Kirk as more of a volatile WR3. The good news? Kirk leads the team in targets (14) and first reads (34% share) for a 9/79 receiving result when facing man coverage. New England has deployed man-to-man coverage on at least 40% of their opponents' pass plays in four of their last 5 outings.
Demario Douglas – Led the Patriots in first read targets (33% share) in Maye’s first start, and he shredded for 6/92/1 receiving. Douglas was the Patriots' best receiver last year, and his performance vs. Houston continued that theme now that he finally has competent QB play. The Jaguars are giving up a league-high +4.8 schedule-adjusted FPG above average to opposing slot receivers.
Stream ‘Em
Drake Maye – It was certainly far from perfect, but Maye immediately showed why the Patriots could no longer keep him on the bench. My interest in Maye centers around his rushing ability, and we saw his scrambling on display early with a solid 5/38 on the ground in his debut. I’d imagine the Patriots start introducing a few designed runs with him soon. Maye’s 7.4 yards per pass attempt in Week 6 vs. Houston is two yards higher than Brissett’s putrid 5.2 YPA this season. Jacksonville is a sieve defensively, and they’ve allowed a top-12 scoring performance in fantasy to six straight quarterbacks. Maye has been on the Stash list for a few weeks, and I see this as a clear spot to pull him off of the bench and stream him in 1-QB leagues.
Sit ‘Em
Trevor Lawrence – Has finished as a top-10 scoring QB in fantasy football just six times in his last 22 games played (27%).
Antonio Gibson – Rhamondre Stevenson (foot) still isn’t practicing. The Patriots weren’t able to get anything going on the ground last week (13/19 rushing), and Gibson (26% route share) was outsnapped in the passing game by JaMycal Hasty (31%). The Patriots' best lineman, LT Vederian Lowe (ankle), is questionable.
Gabe Davis – He scored twice last week, but in typical Gabe Davis fashion, he also dropped 2 TD. Hooray…? Davis has turned his 33 targets into just 204 yards this season, and he’s averaging a career-low 1.17 yards per route run.
Hunter Henry – This is a terrific matchup on paper, but I can’t get there with Henry after his role has been cut down over the last month with Austin Hooper starting to play a bit more.
Ja’Lynn Polk – His routes were cut down last week (67% route share), with Kayshon Boutte (76%) continuing to play more.
Seattle Seahawks at Atlanta Falcons
Must Start
Drake London – This is the London that we all knew existed, but we never saw consistently because he was held down by poor quarterback play. London is tied for second among all players in targets (54) and he’s WR8 in fantasy points per game (17.5). Seahawks top CB Riq Woolen (ankle) missed last week, and he didn’t practice on Wednesday. Seattle changed up their coverage scheme last week with Woolen out. They shifted away from Cover-1 and Cover-3 and went to more two-high safety coverage.
Ken Walker – There aren’t many running backs that I’d rather have in fantasy football over the rest of the season. In his four games played, Walker ranks 10th in route share (51%), and he’s fifth in target share (13.9%) among running backs. It’s a huge boost. Walker was 40th among RB in route share (30%) and target share (6.9%) last season. This type of usage just gives him a significantly higher floor when the run game struggles – as it has over the last two weeks (19/51 rushing).
Start ‘Em
Bijan Robinson – At long last, Robinson delivered in a premier matchup with 105 scrimmage yards and 2 TD against Carolina. Robinson had just 1 TD in his first five games. Tyler Allgeier continues to run well, though. It’s a concern for Robinson’s fantasy stock that his snaps have been cut down from 82% in Weeks 1-3 to just 62% over the last three games. In fact, Robinson (34) and Allgeier (32) have split carries nearly down the middle in Weeks 4-6. Atlanta has shifted far more pass-heavy over the last few weeks, so any time that Allgeier checks in for his changeup role, it has an even greater impact on Robinson’s volume. Seattle has been shredded for 73/445/4 rushing (6.1 YPC) over the last three weeks against Detroit, the New York Giants, and San Francisco.
D.K. Metcalf – It felt like Metcalf could have – and maybe should have – scored 30 FP last week. He was targeted 12 times, but only reeled in 3/48 receiving. Metcalf missed a TD by a toe’s margin and had a 70-yard TD called back due to a penalty. This is a clear spot for Metcalf to get right after two down weeks in this likely shootout. Atlanta has allowed 16 or more PPR points to receivers Devonta Smith, Rashee Rice, Chris Olave, Rashid Shaheed, Mike Evans, and Diontae Johnson over the last five weeks.
Geno Smith – He has thrown for more than 280 yards in five straight games, but Geno has yet to hit a big fantasy score. He remains a clear candidate to progress in the TD department. Smith’s TD% with Seattle was 4.7 heading into this season. It’s a lowly 2.4% right now. That should tick upwards soon. The Seahawks are the most pass-heavy team in the league (+9.3% pass rate over expectation).
Kyle Pitts – Seattle is a great matchup to target for opposing TEs. The Seahawks are allowing the fourth-most yards per game (57.3) and the second-most schedule-adjusted FPG above average (+5.1) to opposing tight ends.
FLEX Plays
Darnell Mooney
Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Tyler Lockett – If you need a WR3/FLEX after being cleaned out by injuries, JSN and Lockett are on the board in this high-scoring affair. Metcalf remains the clear first-read target (26% share) on the majority of Seattle’s pass plays, with JSN (21%) and Lockett (18%) splitting the secondary looks. This is a slightly better matchup for Smith-Njigba. A whopping 40.6% of the targets that Atlanta has faced have gone to slot receivers (second-highest rate), and they’re allowing the seventh-most schedule-adjusted FPG above average (+2.6) to opposing slot wideouts.
Stream ‘Em
Kirk Cousins – Played well again last week, but the Falcons RBs scored three times, and three second-half FG all held Cousins back. With this game being a likely shootout (51 over/under), Cousins is back on the board as a streamer in 1-QB leagues. Seattle has allowed 19.5 FP to Jared Goff, 22.1 FP to Daniel Jones, and 24.1 FP to Brock Purdy over the last three weeks.
Sit ‘Em
Tyler Allgeier
Ray Ray McCloud
Zach Charbonnet
Noah Fant
Tennessee Titans at Buffalo Bills
Must Start
Josh Allen – Amari Cooper’s impending 17-yard average depth of target is going to be a whole lot of fun.
Tony Pollard – With Tyjae Spears (hamstring) likely out, Pollard is set to take on a bell cow role in Week 6. Pollard played on a season-high 75% of the Titans snaps last week. He’s cleared 88 or more scrimmage yards and has 19 or more touches in four out of 5 games. Buffalo is burnable on the ground (4.88 YPC allowed | eighth-most).
Start ‘Em
James Cook – The biggest takeaway from the early stages of Cook’s season is that the Bills are trusting him as their goal-line back over Josh Allen. It’s a big change. In his five games played, Cook leads Buffalo in carries (7) over Allen (2) inside-the-10. Cook missed Week 6 with a toe injury, which allowed Ray Davis to break out for 152 scrimmage yards against the Jets. Davis certainly earned a large role after his performance, and we could see the rookie a bit more than usual this week with Cook still limited. Tennessee is playing strong run defense (3.3 YPC allowed | third-fewest).
FLEX Plays
Amari Cooper – His fantasy season was circling the drain with a noodle-armed Deshaun Watson, but Cooper’s run back to relevance couldn’t have gone any better with Buffalo. At worst, he’s an upside WR2 for the rest of the way. Cooper has the fifth-lowest catchable target rate (62.3%) among WRs. That’s set to change. Josh Allen's 59% highly accurate throw rate on throws beyond the line of scrimmage is second-best, while his old QB Watson (44%) is 26th-of-31 QB. If Cooper does suit up this week, he’ll be limited. Titans top CB L’Jarius Sneed (quad) is questionable.
Sit ‘Em
Calvin Ridley and DeAndre Hopkins – After the Titans airballed so badly in a perfect matchup out of the bye against a bad Colts secondary, there is no confidence to be had here. It’s bleak. Ridley has turned his 26 targets into 9/141/1 receiving. Just 50% of Ridley’s targets have actually been catchable, and that’s the second-lowest rate among qualified wide receivers. Hopkins hit a season-high route share, but he was still just on the field for 63% of the pass last week. I have no idea why HC Brian Callahan is set on rotating in Nick Westbrook and Treylon Burks. Hopkins was limited in Weeks 1-4 by a knee injury.
Dalton Kincaid – Cooper’s addition will free everyone up in this passing attack, but the overall volume remains a huge concern here. Josh Allen is 30th in pass attempts per game (26.0), a figure that can and should rise some with Cooper on the field. Kincaid is a low-end TE1 to begin with, though. He’s 9th in targets per game (5.0) and TE11 in expected fantasy points per game (8.7). I don’t see how his volume gets better. The Titans are icing tight ends to just 24 yards per game (second-fewest) and a league-low -5.7 schedule-adjusted FPG below average.
Khalil Shakir – Was extremely limited due to an ankle injury last week (43% route share). Cooper’s addition ends Shakir’s run as the Bills' top target, and he’ll have to split slot targets with Kincaid. Shakir should be more involved this week. He returned to full practice on Friday.
Ray Davis
Keon Coleman
Will Levis
Cincinnati Bengals at Cleveland Browns
Must Start
Joe Burrow – He started slow (QB29 in Week 1), but Burrow has since ripped QB6, QB6, QB11, QB3, and QB13 scoring weeks in fantasy football. Over the last five weeks, Burrow has completed 72% of his throws for 282.8 yards per game (8.2 YPA) with 12 TDs and just 2 INTs. Cleveland’s defense has regressed year-over-year, and they could get shredded if they stick to their usual man coverage. The Browns are #1 in man coverage usage (47%), and Burrow ranks sixth-best in FP per dropback (0.74) vs. man-to-man. Burrow’s average depth of target has spiked by a ridiculous 4 yards (9.7 aDOT) when facing man coverage as opposed to zones (5.7 aDOT).
Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins – These two are both WR1 this week and moving forward. The Bengals are airing it out at the second-highest rate (+9% above expectation), Burrow is balling out, and the results have been stellar for fantasy. Over the last four weeks, Higgins leads the Bengals in targets (35) and has 25/259/2 receiving (15.7 PPR FPG), while Chase has turned his 30 looks into a stellar 24/468/5 receiving (25.2 FPG). Higgins still looks a little undervalued. He’s earning more first reads (37% share) than Chase (27%).
Start ‘Em
Chase Brown – Has slowly taken over this backfield. Over the last three weeks, Brown has 37 carries and is averaging 14.2 expected PPR points per game while Moss (30 carries | 10.5 XFP/G) is becoming the secondary option. Brown’s 62% snap rate in Week 5 marked a season-high. He’s scored 4 TDs in his last three games with Burrow playing at near-MVP levels.
David Njoku – The biggest winner from the Cooper trade. I’m buying. Njoku has dealt with two separate injuries (ankle + knee) this year, but he’s healthy now, and he should see his role spike. In Week 6, his 63% route share last week marked a season-high, and he led the team in targets (7).
FLEX Plays
Jerry Jeudy – Has two receptions for 51 yards over the last two weeks. Jeudy will need to step up with Cooper gone, but it’s really hard to get excited here. Deshaun Watson is averaging a pathetic 170 yards per game (5.1 YPA), and he has 5 passing TD to 6 turnovers. Not only is his arm shot, but Watson is killing drives with 5.2 sacks per game. If this were a real meritocracy, Jameis Winston would have started back in Week 4.
Sit ‘Em
Zack Moss – Hit a season-low in snaps (46%) and touches (7) last week.
Nick Chubb – Chubb will return to the field in Week 7 after the Browns have ramped him up in practice over the last two weeks. He’ll rejoin a team that is in disarray with an inaccurate and brain-dead QB at the controls. Deshaun Watson is only starting because owner Jimmy Haslam guaranteed him over $200M to do so. I’d love to see Chubb regain his usual 5.0+ YPC form immediately, but that feels nearly impossible right now, regardless of his health. The Browns are the league’s worst offense. Cleveland is 31st in points scored per possession (1.18) and dead last in third-down conversions (19%). Jerome Ford injured his hamstring in Week 6, so we will likely see some sort of committee in Week 7 with Chubb, D’Onta Foreman, and Pierre Strong. The good news is that both tackles Jack Conklin and Jedrick Wills are back healthy to clear paths for Chubb.
Deshaun Watson
Jerome Ford
Andrei Iosivas
Mike Gesicki
Cedric Tillman
Stash ‘Em
Erick All – Stash in deeper leagues/TE premium formats. All has out-targeted Gesicki (12 to 8) on 30 fewer routes over the last four weeks.
Houston Texans at Green Bay Packers
Must Start
Tank Dell – In his first full game with Collins sidelined, Dell set season-highs in routes (91% share) and targets (9). Dell was Stroud’s first read on 43% of his targets, with Diggs (33%) getting a huge share as well. Green Bay is giving up the seventh-most schedule-adjusted FPG above (+3.6) to opposing outside receivers.
Jayden Reed – Over his last 12 regular season games with Love under center, Jayden Reed has tallied up 62/843/8 receiving (on 80 targets) while adding 14/154/3 rushing. That’s 18.9 PPR points per game. For reference, Justin Jefferson is WR7 in FPG (19.0) this season. Reed earned 30% of the first read targets last week.
Joe Mixon – Has dropped two absolute hammers with 178 and 132 scrimmage yards and 3 total TDs in his two full starts. Mixon was the RB2 on the Week 1 slate, and he finished as the RB2 in Week 6.
Jordan Love – Has thrown at least 2 TDs in 13 of his last 14 starts (including postseason). Only three defenses are allowing a higher TD% than the Texans (6.7%) – the Panthers (6.9%), Commanders (6.9%), and Rams (7.8%).
Start ‘Em
Stefon Diggs – With Collins sidelined, Diggs got involved in the Texans downfield passing attack. His 14.7-yard average depth of target in Week 6 was a season high, and was way above his previous high mark (9-yard aDOT). Diggs has finished as a top-25 scoring WR in PPR leagues in 5-of-6 games.
C.J. Stroud – Houston’s pass rate has spiked up to +5.2% above expectation (fifth-highest), a marked improvement from last year (+2.1% | 13th). As a result, Stroud is up to 8th in pass attempts per game (35). Nico Collins’ loss still looms large. Stroud threw 3 first-half TDs last week, but his 192 yards and 6.2 yards per attempt marked season lows.
Josh Jacobs – In four full starts with Love under center, Jacobs is averaging a solid 91.5 scrimmage yards per game. However, Love continues to hog all of the touchdowns. Love has accounted for 12 TDs, while Jacobs has just one. Love is the engine, but Jacobs' TDs should normalize soon. He has handled nine of the Packers' 10 carries inside-the-10.
Tucker Kraft – Came back down to earth last week (2/13 receiving). Unless you have one of Bowers, McBride, Kittle, or Kelce – you’re going right back to Kraft in your lineups. His 74% route share over the last three weeks ranks fourth-highest among TEs.
Dalton Schultz – His targets have increased with Collins off of the field. Schultz’s targets per route run (0.25) looks strong over the last two weeks, and is way up from Weeks 1-4 (0.13 TPRR). This could be a spot to make use of the uptick in volume. The Packers are allowing the third-most schedule-adjusted FPG above average (+4.4).
FLEX Plays
Romeo Doubs and Christian Watson – If Dontayvion Wicks (shoulder) is out and the Packers' targets are a bit more condensed, feel free to chase a TD from Doubs or Watson. In four games with Love under center, Wicks leads the team in end zone targets (5), followed by Watson (4) and Doubs (2). Last week, these two accounted for 72% of Love’s air yardage.
Sit ‘Em
Dontayvion Wicks
Dameon Pierce
Emmanuel Wilson
Xavier Hutchinson
Miami Dolphins at Indianapolis Colts
Start ‘Em
De’Von Achane – Returned to full practice (concussion) on Wednesday. Achane left after 11 snaps in Week 5. Miami’s offense is dead last in points per possession – even worse than Cleveland – without Tua Tagovailoa. Miami’s run game hasn’t been as nearly as successful from a blocking or scheme perspective, and that’s why Achane has been far less efficient this year compared to his rookie season. The Dolphins are 19th in yards before contact per carry (1.64) and 29th in stuff rate (50.4%). By comparison, Miami was third-best in YBC/carry (1.95) and had the 12th-lowest stuff rate (45%) last year. Achane out-carried Mostert 10 to 6 in Week 1.
FLEX Plays
Tyreek Hill – In two starts with Huntley under center, Hill has earned 36% of the first-read targets and 47% of the air yards. Unfortunately, Huntley (5.5 YPA | 60% completions) has been slightly worse than Thompson (5.7 YPA | 64% completions). The Colts are giving up the ninth-most receiving yards per game to opposing receivers (192.5).
Josh Downs – Has nine or more targets in three straight games with Flacco. The flip back to the Richardson offense really dings his projection. Over the last month, Downs leads the Colts in first read targets (34% share) over Pittman (22%) and expected PPR points per game (15.1 to 12.1 for Pittman).
Raheem Mostert – Achane went down early in Week 5, and Mostert tallied up 98 scoreless scrimmage yards on 21 touches as a result. Miami is leaning extremely run-heavy with a -16.6% pass rate under expectation (32nd) in Snoop Huntley’s two starts.
Trey Goodson – Jonathan Taylor still isn’t practicing, and Trey Sermon is dealing with a knee injury. The Colts have every incentive to slow-play Taylor. His ankle injury doesn’t seem overly serious, but it is the same leg that he needed surgery on two years ago.
Sit ‘Em
Anthony Richardson – Any time that Richardson starts, he’s a threat to score 28 FP. We’ve seen his upside… just not enough of it. He has the highest turnover-worthy (9.1%) and off-target throw (29%) rates among 37 QBs with at least 50 dropbacks, which has offset the little bit of running that he has done. Richardson has 15 designed carries for 69 yards (4.6 YPC). Miami just lost EDGE Jaelen Phillips (knee) for the season but their pass rush has been strong (37% pressure rate forced | fifth-highest rate).
Michael Pittman – Playing through a back issue for the near future. Pittman was slightly limited (74% route share) in Week 5 from his usual 84-88% involvement. Richardson needs to dial in his accuracy before we get excited about Colts WRs.
Jaylen Waddle – In six games started by Snoop Huntley and Skylar Thompson over the last three seasons, Waddle has been held down to 4/46 receiving (on 8 targets), 3/23 (4 TGT), 3/52 (5 TGT), 5/44 (5 TGT), 4/26 (5 TGT), and 4/36 (6 TGT). Not great.
Alec Pierce – Leads the Colts in receiving (9/225/2) with Richardson under center.
Adonai Mitchell
Jonnu Smith
Snoop Huntley
Detroit Lions at Minnesota Vikings
Must Start
Justin Jefferson
Amon-Ra St. Brown
Start ‘Em
Jahymr Gibbs and David Montgomery – The Lions put 47 points on the Cowboys last week, but Gibbs was the only Lion that was held out of the endzone. Montgomery has now scored 21 TDs in 21 full games with the Lions (including playoffs). Detroit can run on any defense, but this is objectively a tougher matchup. The Vikings are allowing the sixth-fewest YPC (3.7) and just 34% of the runs they’ve faced have generated positive EPA (third-fewest, per RBDM). Both of these RBs have racked up at least 70 scrimmage yards in every game this season.
Jared Goff – After a slow start in Weeks 1-2, Goff has turned in three straight incredibly efficient performances. He hasn’t needed to throw much – Goff has 23, 18, and 25 pass attempts in his last three starts – but he has torched opposing secondaries for 54-of-66 passing, 806 yards, 7 TD, and 1 INT. He’s been good against the blitz this season, which is huge here. The Vikings blitz at the fourth-highest rate (35%). Goff is second in YPA (12.5) and sixth in FP per dropback (0.60) when blitzed this season.
Sam Darnold – Has finished as the QB14, QB4, QB9, QB5, and QB27 in five starts this season. Darnold struggled in London before the bye against the Jets to give some pause here, but the Vikings are catching the Lions in their first game without All-World EDGE Aidan Hutchinson (leg). Darnold is back on the low-end QB1 radar here. The Vikings have the fourth-highest implied team total (26.3) on the slate, and they may be a bit more pass-heavy than usual, with Aaron Jones (hip) questionable.
Jameson Williams – Leads the Lions in targets (12) over St. Brown (11) when Goff has been blitzed this season. Williams has absolutely shredded on his blitzed looks to the tune of 8/210/1 receiving (4.77 YPRR). The Vikings are allowing the second-most yards per game (127) to opposing outside receivers. He remains an exciting WR2.
Sam LaPorta – He’s yet to see more than 5 targets in a single game this year, with Williams breaking out as the Lions' #2 option. LaPorta will continue to be forced to do less with more, but this is a great matchup here. The Vikings are allowing the fourth-most schedule-adjusted FPG above average (+3.9) to opposing tight ends.
FLEX Plays
Jordan Addison – His volume long-term remains a concern, with Hockenson due back soon. However, this should be the healthiest that Addison has been all year after dealing with two sprained ankles. The Lions' secondary isn’t one to fear. Detroit is allowing the fifth-most schedule-adjusted FPG above average (+6.9) to enemy wide receivers.
Sit ‘Em
Aaron Jones – Dealing with a hip injury.
Ty Chandler – The Vikings returned from their bye, and Aaron Jones (hip) isn’t practicing. Jones injured his hip back in Week 5 against the Jets. The Vikings traded for Cam Akers to give them some depth and to potentially signal that Jones’ hip issue is worse than they feared. If Jones is out, then we’ll see Chandler operate as the lead back this week with Myles Gaskin and Akers behind him. Chandler is an uninspiring FLEX option against a Lions run defense that’s allowing just 3.6 YPC (fifth-fewest).
TJ Hockenson – Still limited at practice as the Vikings ramp him back up after knee surgery.
Tim Patrick
Jalen Nailor
Cam Akers
Philadelphia Eagles at New York Giants
Must Start
Malik Nabers – Welcome back! Nabers is the WR1 in FPG (22.9), as he’s dominating targets in the early stages of his career. Nabers is the first read on 47% of the Giants' targets, trailing only Cooper Kupp (52%) among wideouts.
A.J. Brown – In their two games together this season, Brown (40% share) has dominated first-read targets over DeVonta Smith (26%).
Saquon Barkley
Jalen Hurts – It certainly hasn’t always been pretty, but Hurts continues to get there for fantasy. He’s finished top-10 among QBs in scoring in 4-of-5 games.
Start ‘Em
DeVonta Smith – Dallas Goedert’s absence (hamstring) is a slight boost to A.J. Brown and Smith’s target share. The Eagles are a very concentrated offense to begin with, and they do not spread looks out when they lose a piece. As expected, with Brown back, Smith moved back into the slot full time (83%) last week.
FLEX Plays
Tyrone Tracy and Devin Singletary – This backfield is headed toward some sort of committee in the short term. Tracy has played too well over the last few weeks to keep him off of the field. Devin Singletary is a fine running back, but Tracy has the looks of a future three-down monster. The rookie has rolled up 237 scrimmage yards over the last two weeks. Unfortunately, the loss of stud LT Andrew Thomas (foot | IR) looms large. This is an easier matchup. Philadelphia is getting cracked for 5.0 YPC (fifth-most).
Wan’Dale Robinson – The PPR scam has finished as the WR31, WR34, WR35, WR17, WR16, and WR38 on a weekly basis this season. Robinson has turned his 58 targets into a pitiful 280 yards of offense. The Eagles are giving up the fourth-most yards per route run (2.13) to opposing slot receivers.
Sit ‘Em
Daniel Jones – The Giants are getting Nabers back this week, but Jones has been replacement-level in 1-QB fantasy leagues with QB31, QB7, QB12, QB23, QB10, and QB23 scoring weeks this season. He still can’t push the ball down the field. Jones has completed just four of his 20 pass attempts over 20 or more air yards. In fact, he and Deshaun Watson have the same completion rate (20% | 29th-of-30 QB) on deep balls. Yikes. Keep rolling him out in SuperFlex formats, but we’re looking for more upside in 1-QB leagues.
Grant Calcaterra – He’s in play as a desperation streamer. Calcaterra ran a route on 85% of the Eagles pass plays last week, and he earned four targets (4/67 receiving).
Darius Slayton
Jahan Dotson
Theo Johnson
Las Vegas Raiders at Los Angeles Rams (4:05p)
Must Start
Kyren Williams – After a very slow start, the Rams run game started to get it going over their last three games before the bye. Williams tallied up 65/285/4 (4.4 YPC) on the ground in Weeks 3-5. You can’t really dial up a better matchup for Williams here. The Raiders are getting crushed for 5.2 YPC (fourth-most).
Brock Bowers – League winner. The runway is cleared for Bowers now that Adams is a Jet, and his role has been even better in recent weeks with Michael Mayer (personal) off of the field. Bowers route share has spiked way up from 63% in Weeks 1-3 (with Mayer) to 75% over Weeks 4-6 (without Mayer).
Start ‘Em
Cooper Kupp – Returned to a limited practice on Wednesday (ankle). Kupp is close to a return either this week or next, while Puka Nacua (knee) isn’t looking likely to return until November at the earliest. Kupp leads all wide receivers in first-read target share (52%), and he will be spoon-fed 8-10 targets in this spot. Las Vegas is allowing 2.07 yards per route run (seventh-most) and +4.2 schedule-adjusted FPG above average to slot receivers.
Jakobi Meyers – Didn’t play in Week 6 (ankle), and he’s still not practicing. If he’s able to suit up, Meyers will return to the low-end WR2/3 radar in an ideal matchup. The Rams are getting cleaned out for 2.5 yards per route run to opposing outside receivers (second-most).
FLEX Plays
Alexander Mattison – Scored a TD on the Raiders opening possession last week, and then he plodded his way to just 65 scrimmage yards on 19 touches. Zamir White (groin) has missed two straight games. The Rams are allowing the fourth-most rushing yards per game (124.2).
Stream ‘Em
Colby Parkinson – He might be the most boring TE streamer in fantasy football history, but Parkinson still projects as a strong technical play. Parkinson is second in route share (80%) – only behind Trey McBride (81%) – and eighth among tight ends in target share (17.6%).
Sit ‘Em
Matthew Stafford – SuperFlex leagues only.
Aidan O’Connell
Tre Tucker
Jordan Whittington
Tutu Atwell
Demarcus Robinson
Stash ‘Em
Blake Corum
Washington Commanders at Carolina Panthers (4:05p)
Must Start
Jayden Daniels
Chuba Hubbard – Hubbard continued to show well as the Panthers' workhorse runner with his fourth straight game above 90 yards rushing. Carolina’s offensive line is much-improved this year due to coaching and the acquisition of road-grading G Robert Hunt. In fact, the Panthers' offensive line is opening up 2.41 yards before contact per carry, and that is tied with the Lions for fifth-best. It’s a huge improvement after they were 29th in YBC/carry (1.12) last season. Hubbard is locked into lineups again, taking on a bad Commanders run defense in Week 7. Rookie RB Jonathon Brooks is ramping up toward a return, though. This backfield is heading towards a committee in the long-term, but Carolina is now 1-5 and tracking towards another top-5 pick in the NFL Draft. It’s only a matter of time before Brooks gets a big chance to lead this backfield and build momentum into next year.
Diontae Johnson – Has earned double-digit targets in three out of 4 games with Dalton under center, and has 24/306/3 receiving (18.2 PPR FPG) to show for it. Johnson has dominated first-read targets (40% share) over the last month.
Start ‘Em
Terry McLaurin – He’s more than made up for his slow start. McLaurin has exploded for 21/317/4 receiving (on 31 targets) over the last month of action. Absolutely nothing about this matchup scares me. Carolina is allowing the fourth-most yards per route run (2.33) to opposing outside wide receivers.
Austin Ekeler – With Brian Robinson (knee) out last week, Ekeler handled the bulk of the work. Ekeler had 9 carries while Jeremy McNichols had just two, and Ekeler widely outsnapped McNichols on passing downs (25 to 8 routes). Robinson returned to a limited practice on Wednesday. Carolina is getting hammered for 165.3 scrimmage yards per game (second-most).
Sit ‘Em
Andy Dalton – Has finished as QB8, QB12, QB28, and QB17 in weekly scoring in his four starts.
Jonathon Brooks
Xavier Legette – This matchup keeps Legette on the WR3/FLEX radar, even though his overall volume hasn’t been great. Over the last four weeks, Legette (15% share) is miles behind Johnson (40%) in first-read targets. Washington is allowing the sixth-most receiving yards per game (197.2) to opposing outside/slot receivers.
Zach Ertz – He’s been the definition of replacement-level with weekly finishes of TE16, TE8, TE10, TE22, TE37, and TE11.
Noah Brown
Ja’Tavion Sanders
Kansas City Chiefs at San Francisco 49ers (4:25p)
Must Start
Deebo Samuel – This matchup favors Samuel because the 49ers play so much two-high safety coverage. Samuel led the 49ers in targets (28% share) last season when facing 2-hi looks, and once again, Samuel is absolutely crushing those coverage shells. Samuel has 12/194/1 receiving (2.37 YPRR) when facing two-high safety coverage this year. Samuel (19%) and Kittle (22%) have accounted for 41% of the 49ers' targets when they see a 2-hi look.
George Kittle – The only tight end with top-10 weekly finishes in every game so far.
Travis Kelce – With Rashee Rice sidelined over the last two weeks, Kelce has tallied up 7/89 and 9/70 receiving. The touchdowns will come. Kelce has earned 32% of the first-read targets in two games without Rice, which is more than double his FR share (14.5%) in Weeks 1-3.
Start ‘Em
Brock Purdy – Dating back to the end of 2022, Purdy has finished as a top-15 scoring QB in weekly output in 20-of-27 games as the 49ers starter. That’s 74%. Purdy has become a better scrambler this season and is averaging 21.2 rushing yards per game. The Chiefs are a tough matchup, but he remains a low-end QB1 at worst.
Kareem Hunt – In two games as the Chiefs lead back, Hunt has rolled up 202 scrimmage yards with 16 and 28 touches. Over the last two games, Hunt has 41 carries while Perine has 7 and Steele has 5. Hunt is worthy of RB2 consideration.
Jordan Mason – Suffered a mild shoulder injury last week. It seemed like Mason could have returned to the game if it was absolutely necessary, but the 49ers held him back. The injury last week was bad luck because he’s continued to look more comfortable as the season has gone on. Mason has averaged over 6 yards per touch in three straight games. This is a tough matchup for their rushing attack. The Chiefs are a stonewall run defense (3.1 YPC allowed | second-fewest). Mason is more of a RB2 this week.
FLEX Plays
Brandon Aiyuk – Once again, Aiyuk was the third target for the 49ers last week. In their five full games together, Samuel has earned 26% of the first read targets, while Kittle has 24%, and Aiyuk is down at 19%. This is also a tough schematic matchup for Aiyuk because the 49ers play so much two-high safety coverage (67%). Aiyuk is averaging just 1.2 yards per route run vs. 2-hi looks, and he’s far more efficient (2.6 YPRR) when facing single-high safety looks. Aiyuk’s target share when facing 2-hi coverages is just 14%. His target share spikes to 23% when facing one-high safety looks. The Chiefs did use more Cover-1 (33% frequency) as a changeup in the Super Bowl.
JuJu Smith-Schuster and Xavier Worthy – Smith-Schuster turned back the clock for 7/130 receiving (on 8 targets) in Week 5 after he’s been completely left for dead since 2022. JuJu was a fantasy disappointment as he averaged 58.3 yards per game two seasons ago with the Chiefs. Kansas City is desperate for consistent receiver play, and JuJu definitely has room for his role to grow further. Smith-Schuster’s route share has risen (10% > 41% > 44% > 59%) in four straight games. Meanwhile, Xavier Worthy has earned 24% of the first read targets in two games without Rice (knee). Both are on the board as WR3/FLEX plays.
Sit ‘Em
Patrick Mahomes – Has finished as the QB15, QB14, QB17, QB17, and QB20 in weekly scoring in his first five starts. In fact, Mahomes has finished as a top-10 scoring QB in fantasy football once in his last 14 games, dating back to last year. His 3.8 TD% is a career-low.
Jauan Jennings – Questionable to play (hip). Rookie WR Ricky Pearsall returned to full practice on Wednesday.
Samaje Perine
Stash ‘Em
Isaac Guerendo
New York Jets at Pittsburgh Steelers (SNF)
Must Start
Breece Hall – The Jets made Hall a bell cow once again in OC Todd Downing’s first game as their new playcaller. Hall set season-highs in snaps (86%) and carries (18) last week, while Braelon Allen was phased back as just a changeup piece. Pittsburgh is playing strong run defense (3.5 YPC | fourth-fewest), but the usage in Week 6 was extremely bullish for Hall.
Start ‘Em
Davante Adams – Madden has come to life with the trade everyone wanted to see. Just take a moment and appreciate that we get to see Rodgers-to-Adams back shoulder throws again. I expect Adams to be a little more limited this week than usual in his first game, and this is not a great matchup. Steelers CB Joey Porter will shadow. It’s incredible how fast that “hamstring injury” healed, though. Adams is a borderline WR1 for the rest of the season.
Garrett Wilson – The Jets instituted some quick, easy fixes to their offense last week under new OC Todd Downing. New York used more pre-snap motion to get Wilson in advantageous matchups on the field, and they used him more on horizontal breaking routes so that he has a chance to run away from defenders. 44% of Wilson’s routes were horizontal concepts in Week 6, and that’s up from 37% in Weeks 1-5. With Adams added, the Jets can now use Wilson in the slot more often as well. I do not see the Adams move as a death knell for his fantasy stock. Far from it. Aaron Rodgers was already supporting Wilson (WR13 in fantasy points per game) as a low-end WR1, while Lazard (WR18) had emerged as a WR2.
FLEX Plays
Najee Harris – He scored the long TD last week to end his scoring drought! Harris has at least 73 scrimmage yards in every game this season, and finally broke out in an ideal spot last week against the Raiders. Jaylen Warren returned and immediately cut in, as expected. Harris’ 48% snap rate was a season-low in Week 6. Warren is not playable yet, but his return knocks Harris’ projection down a bit.
George Pickens – The QB change looms large, but I am not excited to put Pickens into lineups in this spot. The Jets are limiting opposing outside receivers to the fourth-fewest yards per game (66.3). The good news is that he remains the only show in town. Pickens earned 8 targets and 56% of the Steelers' air yards last week, but only came down with 3/53 receiving. He’s a low-floor WR3.
Sit ‘Em
Aaron Rodgers – He got his guy! Adams is a Jet. However, Rodgers has not finished as a top-10 scoring QB in fantasy football yet this season. You’re locking him into SuperFlex lineups, but we’re searching for more upside in 1-QB leagues.
Russell Wilson/Justin Fields – The Steelers are considering starting Wilson now that he’s fully over the calf injury that he sustained in August. It’s a pretty aggressive change. Fields is by no means setting the world on fire, but he is playing pretty well, and he’s tied for fourth-best in highly accurate throw rate (54%) among quarterbacks. Is this version of Wilson significantly better?
Jaylen Warren
Pat Friermuth
Allen Lazard – Now that Adams is added, it’s highly unlikely that Rodgers can support three fantasy-relevant receivers.
Braelon Allen
Tyler Conklin
Baltimore Ravens at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (MNF | 8:15p)
This game will be added shortly.
Los Angeles Chargers at Arizona Cardinals (MNF | 9p)
This game will be added shortly.
