WR Performance vs. Man/Zone Coverages in 2022

There is a lot of nuance in breaking down coverage stats. Most defenses play zone coverage most of the time (nearly 75%, to be exact) – but the usage of zone coverage “shells” vary from team to team.

The two-high safety zone coverage looks were popularized by now-Dolphins DC Vic Fangio and have been tried, to varying degrees of success, across the league.

While these two-high looks continue to be adopted more, they are largely rooted in Cover-4 and Cover-6 principles. Cover-6 (or Cover-8) combines Cover-2 and Cover-4 to provide more flexibility depending on how the offense aligns its receivers.

Here’s a look at league-wide averages by coverage type.

NFL Coverage Averages – 2022 season (Fantasy Points Data)

Type	Average
Cover-3	34.0%
Cover-1 (man)	21.7%
Cover-4	15.2%
Cover-2	14.4%
Cover-6	9.7%
Cover-0 (man)	3.1%
Cover-2 (man)	1.9%

These seven coverage types were run on 94% of pass plays last season (goal-line and red-zone coverage were intentionally left out).

Note that the overwhelming majority of man coverage is Cover-1 – a one, high free safety look with one-on-one coverage across the formation.

Cover-3 zone dominates league-wide with over one-third of the coverage snaps. Typically, Cover-3 is a one-high safety look – which can give a nice disguise for Cover-1 – and the strong safety helps against the run.

Base “two-high” safety looks are mostly Cover-2, Cover-4, and Cover-6.

Applying Coverage Stats to Fantasy

Broadly speaking, we should shift away from focusing on one-on-one WR vs. CB matchups because it’s so rare for a single cornerback to travel with an individual wide receiver for the entirety of a game. What’s much more useful is analyzing how quarterbacks and their receivers perform against zone and man – with a heavy emphasis on zone since that is the dominant coverage.

What we’ll do in this article – and in the future with Fantasy Points Data – is focus heavily on production by the different types of coverages.

Recall that in the Most Important Stats article series we noted YPRR (yards per route run) and TPRR (targets per route run) were the two best efficiency metrics regarding how they correlate to fantasy points for wide receivers.

We’ll be using both of these stats together to analyze the game's best and worst receivers against zone and man coverage.

TPRR, in particular, is sticky year over year (0.648 correlation), which means that the receivers who earn targets at a high level typically repeat doing so year-over-year until they fall off of the Age Curve.

Reminders!

TPRR (targets per route run) is the receivers’ ability to earn targets.

YPRR (yards per route run) is the receivers’ ability to convert those targets into production (yards).

Zone Coverage Stats

Note: only the top-35 WRs by ADP are highlighted. The X-axis is targets per route run. The Y-Axis is yards per route run.

Fantasy Takeaways

Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle

I had to reformat the chart to make sure that Tyreek Hill fit the scale. To say the Dolphins were dominant against zone coverage last year would be an understatement.

Tua Tagovailoa and his top-two receivers absolutely shredded Cover-3 in particular, as Tua posted league-bests in YPA (11.4) and passer rating (123.9) vs. C-3 shells. Only Joe Burrow (85.6%) threw a catchable, on-target pass more often than Tua (84.6%) against Cover-3 looks.

As a result, Jaylen Waddle (4.08) led all receivers in YPRR vs. Cover-3, followed closely by Tyreek Hill (3.91).

Against all zone coverage, Hill (3.46) finished first among WRs in YPRR, while Waddle was third (3.0). Hill led all WRs in targets per route run vs. zone (0.33), followed by Cooper Kupp (0.31) and Deebo Samuel (0.29).

When he’s at his best, Tua is one of the best point guard QBs – just dishing out dime after dime. Tua might not have a big-time strong arm or perfect pocket presence, but he is very good at getting the ball out on time to Hill and Waddle.

We also have to appreciate that HC Mike McDaniel only designs throws to his two best players, and that plan won’t change this season with no real receiving threat at tight end and questionable WR depth behind Hill and Waddle. Last year, Tyreek Hill was the first read 35% of the time vs. zone coverage, while Jaylen Waddle was the first read 25% of the time. No other Dolphin was above 12%.

Christian Watson

Christian Watson profiles like a future fantasy WR1. Watson ranked 5th in YPRR vs. zone coverage (2.64) and 3rd in fantasy points per route run vs. zone (0.48), just nosing out Stefon Diggs (0.45) and A.J. Brown (0.45).

It’s seriously impressive that Watson was this good as a rookie despite dealing with three separate injuries (knee, hamstring, concussion) that forced him to miss a ton of practice time.

Watson’s ability is not in question. What remains to be seen is if Jordan Love can deliver the same level of accuracy as Aaron Rodgers. Over the last two seasons, 72.3% of Love’s 83 passes have been charted as “catchable” – which is below the league average.

Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk

While seeing totally different usage, Deebo averaged nearly the same exact YPRR (1.98) vs. zone coverage as Aiyuk (2.01). Deebo’s average depth of target was 4.9 yards downfield while Aiyuk’s aDOT was nearly double that (9.9).

Samuel was the 49ers' clear-cut lead target vs. zone coverage (0.29 TPRR) compared to Brandon Aiyuk (0.20). Keep in mind, this was even though Deebo dealt with ankle, knee, and hamstring injuries. He even admitted he wasn’t himself last year.

Against Cover-3, Deebo was the first read 33% of the time, followed by Aiyuk at 27% and then George Kittle down at 17%. For whatever reason, Kittle just often seems to be the odd man out when Deebo and Aiyuk are both healthy. I wrote more about why I’m fading Kittle in fantasy here.

Perhaps most importantly, Deebo was Brock Purdy’s preferred target when all of the 49ers' receivers were healthy. In the five games that Samuel, Aiyuk, McCaffrey, and Kittle played with Purdy – Samuel led the way in TPRR (0.26), followed by McCaffrey (0.23) and then Aiyuk and Kittle (0.19).

Drake London

Just like Christian Watson, Falcons WR Drake London also profiles like a future fantasy WR1. London tied Davante Adams for the fifth-highest TPRR (0.28) against zone coverages and, despite erratic QB play, London finished a strong 10th in YPRR (2.35).

That type of production from a rookie – let alone a rookie who dealt with horrific QB play at times – is incredible. Full stop.

I’m not taking anything away from London at all, but we have to acknowledge the fact that his breakout came after Kyle Pitts (knee) got injured.

In their 10 games together, Pitts earned 0.31 TPRR, while London’s TPRR was 0.25. And, Pitts posted better efficiency marks by YPRR (2.12 YPRR for Pitts vs. 1.78 for London).

From Week 11 on (post-Pitts injury), London absolutely dominated as the Falcons lead wideout – ranking second among WRs in both TPRR (0.31) and YPRR (3.17) vs. zone coverages over the final six games.

While it’s clear that the Falcons essentially have co-WR1s, what remains to be seen is if Desmond Ridder can provide consistently accurate and on-time passes to his top-two players. I’m more willing to take the plunge in Round 7 with Pitts instead of Round 4-5 with London.

Davante Adams

The best route runner in the game put on a masterclass last season, earning targets at an incredible rate as the foundation of the Raiders' pass attack.

Adams saw a ridiculous 38.2% of the first reads vs. zone coverage last season, trailing only Cooper Kupp (40.2%!) for the league lead.

Adams dominated on the high volume – finishing 8th in YPRR (2.39) and 7th in fantasy points per route run (0.422) vs. zone coverage. This was even though Derek Carr delivered a catchable target on just 73.7% of Adams’ targets against zone (Adams’ catchable target rate ranked 67th-of-97 WRs).

Man Coverage Stats

Note: only the top-35 WRs by ADP are highlighted. The X-axis is targets per route run. The Y-Axis is yards per route run.

Fantasy Takeaways

Amon-Ra St. Brown

St. Brown was incredible against man coverage last season, leading all WRs in TPRR (0.37) and finishing a strong 4th in fantasy points per route run (0.61 FP/RR). Cooper Kupp (0.66) led all receivers in FP/RR vs. man, followed by Ja’Marr Chase (0.64) and Chris Olave (0.61).

There’s another step forward that St. Brown will make in his game this season as he becomes a true inside/outside threat.

Last year, St. Brown ran 41% of routes aligned out wide, and he absolutely dominated. St. Brown tied for sixth in TPRR (0.32) with A.J. Brown, he was third in YPRR (3.03), and also third in FP/RR (0.58) – behind only Tyreek Hill (0.65) and Travis Kelce (0.61).

So… yeah, I think St. Brown can win outside.

As you’d expect, St. Brown earned targets at an elite rate inside, too – ranking 2nd in TPRR (0.31) in the slot and a solid 17th in both YPRR and FP/RR.

St. Brown’s floor is as high as it gets among WRs – he’s seen eight or more targets a ridiculous 20 times (!!) in his last 22 games. And with Jameson Williams (suspended six games) still waiting in the wings, nothing is threatening St. Brown from another season of 145-150 targets.

Jerry Jeudy and Courtland Sutton

Jeudy is an interesting post-hype target for a number of different reasons.

When healthy last season, Jeudy produced like a WR1 despite all of the issues that plagued the Broncos offense. In the 11 games where he played at least 60% of the snaps, Jeudy averaged 14.4 Half-PPR points per game – which would have made him WR9.

Jeudy absolutely ate Cover-1 to the tune of 3.43 YPRR (second-best), as Russell Wilson was a much better QB vs. man coverage compared to zone.

Wilson averaged 8.4 YPA against man coverages (second-best), but that fell to a pedestrian 7.2 YPA vs. zone (21st). In fact, Wilson threw more TDs vs. man (6) than he did against zone (5) all year.

For what it’s worth, Jeudy was also better against zone coverage compared to teammate Courtland Sutton as he led the duo in TPRR (0.21 vs. 0.18) and YPRR (1.92 vs. 1.45).

DeAndre Hopkins

This is not a pretty picture of a receiver going in the fourth round of drafts.

While Hopkins was still elite at earning targets (0.34 TPRR) vs. man coverage, his efficiency absolutely cratered (1.25 YPRR | 67th). It’s also not like Hopkins had terrible QB play, either. Far from it. Per FPD, Hopkins saw a catchable target 73.9% of the time against man coverage – which is right around league average.

At the end of the day, Hopkins was still very good against zone coverage and that is largely the best-case argument for him at his ADP. However, his waning efficiency against man coverage could be a warning sign of the impending Age Curve as he enters Year 10.

Chris Olave

There isn’t a stat that Olave doesn’t pop in. Ranking first in YPRR vs. man coverage (3.48) is an incredible feat. And while Olave was special one-on-one, his numbers are good vs. zone as well (2.18 YPPR | 16th-best).

As exciting as he is long-term, Olave has more competition now that Michael Thomas (I know, I know) appears legitimately healthy. Even if Thomas has lost half a step, he’s still a threat to earn targets – especially in the red zone. Thomas got 3 end-zone targets (and scored 3 TDs) in three games last year while Olave got just 5 end-zone targets (2 TDs) in 15 games played.

Keenan Allen and Mike Williams

Unlike DeAndre Hopkins, we see no signs of skill regression for the now 31-year-old Keenan Allen. He was stellar once again when healthy last season, posting top-20 marks in YPRR vs. zone coverages (2.26) and against man (2.53).

Allen is entering Year 10 of his career, where a clear production drop occurs, as Ryan Heath studied in his Age Curves article. Wideouts in Year 10 typically regress to 77.2% of their career baseline production. Allen is one of the best route runners and skilled craftsmen in the game still and likely won’t regress at normal levels, though.

However, if that typical regression were to take place – it would take Allen from his 16.7 PPR points per game baseline (last six years) down to 13.0 FPG this season.

Allen is a high-floor, but kind of low-ceiling pick in the third round of drafts. He’s finished as a top-5 scoring wideout in just 4% of his games over the last two years (42nd), but he’s been a top-20 scorer exactly 50% of the time (7th-highest rate).

Mike Williams has been one of the most frustrating, but productive receivers in the league over the last two seasons. Across his last 30 games where he’s played at least 60% of the snaps, Williams has averaged 13.5 Half-PPR points per game – which would have tied DeAndre Hopkins for the WR10 finish last season.

I understand the frustrating injury history – a high ankle injury slowed him down mid-season last year – but just put that bias for a second.

Williams was one of the most dominant WRs in the league last season against man coverage, finishing third in YPRR (3.40) while tying his teammate Allen in TPRR (0.32). New OC Kellen Moore said himself that he wants to line up Williams in the slot more, which in my translation, means he wants to exploit defenses when they play man-to-man against Williams inside.

QB Justin Herbert ranked second-best in YPA (8.69) vs. Cover-1 (man) while not being very aggressive at all. Herbert’s aDOT against Cover-1 was 9.1 yards (18th), and he threw a deep pass just 12.9% of the time (21st), figures which should come up this season.

I’m not implying that Williams outscores Allen in fantasy this season, but this new coaching staff has the talent and depth at receiver to mix and match more than ever. Quinten Johnston will likely play mostly on the boundary, while Josh Palmer can play inside or outside. All of this lines up Justin Herbert for a career-best year.

Christian Kirk

Kirk is one of the most underrated receivers in the game still, and he absolutely shredded man-to-man coverage from the slot last season. Trevor Lawrence and Kirk had their connection dialed up as Kirk finished 10th in YPRR vs. man coverage (2.90) – just trailing CeeDee Lamb (3.02) and Ja’Marr Chase (3.13).

Last year, Kirk ran 80% of his routes from the slot, and the Jaguars used 11-personnel (3-WRs) on 78% of their pass plays (10th-highest rate). There is some room for that figure to go even higher with Calvin Ridley being such a massive upgrade over Marvin Jones.

The Rams (93%) and Bengals (92%) both were at the top of the league in 3-WR formation usage on passing downs.

More Fantasy Takeaways

A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith

Only four wideouts finished top-10 in YPRR vs. man and zone coverage last year – Tyreek Hill, Justin Jefferson, Cooper Kupp… and AJ Brown.

Brown and Smith had nearly identical target numbers vs. zone coverage (74 targets for Smith | 69 targets for Brown), but those figures tilted in Brown’s favor vs. man coverage (71 for Brown | 58 for Smith).

This means we should prefer Brown over Smith against teams that play a lot of Cover-1 (man) and consider these two near equals against zone-heavy defenses.

Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins

Chase, Higgins, and Burrow are in for a career-best year. Between the Bengals finally boosting their pass volume and Chase and Higgins finally being healthy, the sky's the limit.

Higgins is a low-end fantasy WR1 when healthy… but Chase took over as the alpha last season. Chase earned a whopping 35.9% of the first read targets vs. zone coverage while Higgins was at 19.3%.

Chase also finished 8th among WRs in TPRR vs. man coverage (0.32) and was 10th in YPRR (3.13), so he was dominating against Cover-1, too.

Higgins fared well against man coverage as well (2.64 YPRR | 13th).

D.J. Moore

Moore posted pretty decent efficiency numbers against zone coverages (1.90 YPRR | 20th) and man (2.16 YPRR | 25th) despite seeing arguably the worst QB play in the league on those targets.

Last year, Moore saw a catchable target just 65.4% of the time against zone coverage – which was the sixth-worst rate among 76 qualifying WRs.

And against man coverage, his QB play wasn’t any better! He saw a catchable target just 66.7% of the time (ninth-worst among 55 WRs).

While I’m as excited for Justin Fields in fantasy as anyone, his accuracy still left much to be desired last season. Fields will never be like Peyton Manning out there, but some incremental strides here would be huge. Fields delivered a catchable ball just 71.1% of the time vs. zone coverages, which was the lowest rate among 31 qualifying QBs.

Fields was not too much better vs. man coverage either (68.5% catchable throw rate | 27th-of-32 QBs).

George Pickens and Diontae Johnson

Pickens had wide splits regarding his target-earning and production as a rookie, struggling against zone coverage (0.13 TPRR | 1.13 YPRR) while excelling against one-on-one man coverage (0.20 TPRR | 2.14 YPRR).

This is a part of who Pickens is as a player, but we are obviously going to have to see him win vs. zone coverage more often for him to take the next step in fantasy.

On the other hand, Diontae Johnson dominated against Cover-3 zone compared to Pickens. Johnson averaged 2.32 YPRR vs. Cover-3 – trailing Tee Higgins and Keenan Allen (2.36) while Pickens finished 82nd in YPRR (1.15).

Johnson dominated first-read targets against Cover-3 with a 36% share, while Pickens was at 16%. And, for as good as Pickens is against man coverage, it was Johnson who dominated the first reads against Cover-1.

Per Fantasy Points Data, Johnson was the first read a whopping 43% of the time against Cover-1 – trailing only Tyreek Hill (51%) and Ja’Marr Chase (46%). Pickens was the first read 22% of the time vs. Cover-1.

These figures are very encouraging for Johnson’s bounceback appeal after he ran colder than Antarctica in the TD department last season.

First Read Target Share vs. Zone / Man Coverage

Quick Hits

D.K. Metcalf was the first read more often vs. zone (29%) and man coverage (37.7%) compared to Tyler Lockett (25.8% vs. zone | 15.8% vs. man). However, Lockett scored 12.5 fantasy points per game while Metcalf was at 10.9 FPG.

Metcalf would be an all-time great buy-low candidate if the Seahawks hadn’t just drafted target-vacuum Jaxon Smith-Njigba.

Deebo Samuel was the lead first read 29.9% of the time vs. zone (12th-highest among all WRs), while Brandon Aiyuk was often the first read vs. Cover-1 (39.1% | 12th-highest). This means we should target Deebo vs. zone-heavy defenses and, inversely, target Aiyuk vs. man-heavy coverage units.

Stefon Diggs easily led the Bills in first read share vs. zone coverage (33.3%) over Gabe Davis (19.3%) and against Cover-1 man looks (Diggs 38.5% | Davis 10.9%).

The Bills likely want Davis to be a much bigger piece of the offense in general, but Dalton Kincaid will immediately take over the slot role and garner a solid chunk of targets here. Slot WR Isaiah McKenzie was actually second on the team in first reads (21.4%) vs. man coverage last season.

In Weeks 1-6 without DeAndre Hopkins, Cardinals WR Marquise Brown absolutely dominated targets from Kyler Murray. In those six games, Brown averaged 10.7 targets per game – which would have trailed only Cooper Kupp (10.8) for the league lead over the entire season.

Against Cover-1, Brown was the first read 34.3% of the time (18th). And, against zone coverages, Brown garnered a 28% FR share (20th).

The Cardinals are the only team not to be favored at all in the lookahead lines, which all sets up Brown for potentially epic volume.