Week 8 Fantasy Football Start 'Em Sit 'Em

Welcome to Week 8 Start ‘Em, Sit ‘Em.

As always, my DMs in our subscriber Discord (@GrahamBarfield) are open for any Start/Sit questions you may have, while Tom Brolley, John Hansen, and I will be streaming for subscribers on Sunday mornings to help answer any of your tough calls.

Unless stated otherwise, all of the data in this article is from Fantasy Points Data and specifically curated from the Data Suite. Our collection team has charted every play from every game over the last three seasons, and we will have fresh, weekly data imported into the tools on Tuesday mornings after the games.

Good luck this week!

Bucs at Bills (TNF)

Must Start

Josh Allen – Despite their broader struggles offensively, Allen has finished as a top-8 fantasy QB five times in his last 6 starts. The Patriots used a spy often last week to flush him from the pocket, but Allen had a season-high 7 carries (3 designed attempts). He might need to start running more like in previous years to give this offense a spark.

Stefon Diggs – On pace for a career-high 189 targets.

Mike Evans – The Bills have allowed a whopping 44/513/2 receiving (56 targets) to opposing wide receivers since CB Tre White (Achilles) was lost for the season. Evans has finished as a top-20 scoring WR in 4-of-5 full games.

Start ‘Em

James Cook – It has been a frustrating fantasy season for Cook, much like the Bills’ year so far. Cook is still technically in a timeshare with 52% of the snaps vs. the Patriots, but he handled 13 carries to Latavius Murray’s 4. After Murray started last week’s game vs. the Giants and split carries with Cook (14 to 12), it seemed like this backfield was headed toward more of a committee. Once again, that was a one-week trend with this team. The Bills are searching for some semblance of consistency in their offense besides Josh Allen throwing to Stefon Diggs. For now, Cook has settled in as a high-upside, low-floor RB2 that will make you want to pull your hair out some weeks.

Dalton Kincaid – With Dawson Knox (wrist) out for a few weeks, Kincaid moves to the front of the streamer pile after the top-8 TEs (Kelce, Andrews, Hockenson, LaPorta, Kittle, Waller, Engram). The Bucs’ athletic linebacking group is pretty strong against tight ends, though, so don’t get too crazy with expectations here. Only two TEs have topped 40 yards vs. Tampa (Goedert, 41 yards / Pitts, 47).

FLEX Plays

Chris Godwin – Evans has out-targeted Godwin by a 46 to 38 margin in 5 full games played this season. In those games, Evans has commanded a whopping 40% share of the air yards compared to 25% for Godwin. With Evans getting clear WR1 treatment, Godwin remains more of a WR3/FLEX. Outside of his WR9 performance vs. the Saints when Evans left early with an injury, Godwin’s weekly finishes are WR44, WR52, WR72, WR28, and WR24 in Half-PPR.

Rachaad White – This is White’s first “easy” matchup of the season, by far. Buffalo is getting cracked for 5.14 YPC (2nd-most) and a 7.1% explosive run rate (3rd-highest). Unfortunately, Tampa might not be able to lean on the run as much as they’d like as big underdogs. Still, we know that he will remain heavily involved in the passing game to keep him in play as a RB2/FLEX start. The only two running backs that have a higher route share than White (63%) are Christian McCaffrey (64%) and Kyren Williams (71%).

Gabe Davis – Touchdowns are a helluva drug. Davis remains the same boom-or-bust WR3 option. The Bucs do play a lot of zone coverage (80.2% | 5th-highest rate), which leaves the light on for him if you need to take a swing here. He’s averaging a respectable 1.92 YPRR vs. zone, but that dips to a paltry 1.20 YPRR vs. man coverages.

Sit ‘Em

Baker Mayfield – Only a 2QB/SuperFlex league play.

Latavius Murray

Cade Otton

Saints at Colts

Must Start

Alvin Kamara – How many RBs are you taking over Kamara for the rest of the season? Sure, Jamaal Williams will work in more often. However, Kamara’s passing-down role greatly outweighs any potential loss of early-down carries. His 25.9 XFP per game easily leads the position over Tony Pollard and Christian McCaffrey (19.3 XFP).

Start ‘Em

Jonathan Taylor – The breakout is right around the corner. Taylor commanded a season-high 61.9% of the backfield expected fantasy points last week and looked explosive on his touches. In this three-week ramp-up, Taylor already ranks 11th-best in yards after contact per carry (3.09) out of 59 qualifying RBs. The Saints continue to play stout run defense (3.30 YPC allowed | 6th-fewest), and that makes Taylor more of a high-upside RB2 as opposed to locked-in RB1. Zack Moss (elbow/heel) is questionable.

Chris Olave – After a hot start in his first three games, Olave has cooled off over his last 4 outings with just 17/169/1 receiving (on 36 targets). This is a great bounce-back spot, though. Olave sees a massive 35.7% share of the first-read targets and 42% of the air yards vs. single-high coverage. The Colts play single-high at the 4th-highest rate (64%).

FLEX Plays

Michael Pittman and Josh Downs – Pittman (43) leads Downs (34) in targets with Minshew under center. It’s nice to see a Colts passing attack solely centered around their two best players, with these two getting 55% of the target volume. Downs objectively has the easier matchup this week, though. Pittman will see a good deal of Marshon Lattimore, while Downs will largely avoid the Saints' tough perimeter coverage. The Saints are allowing the 7th-most FP to slot receivers, but the 2nd-fewest FP to opposing outside receivers. Downs runs 83% of his routes lined up inside.

Michael Thomas – The Saints offense flows through Olave (35.7% first-read share) and Thomas (28.6%) vs. single-high coverages. Despite the Saints' struggles, Thomas remains a consistent WR3/4 option for deeper 12- and 14-team fantasy formats.

Sit ‘Em

Zack Moss – Saw a season-low 38.1% of the backfield expected fantasy points last week. Moss gets pushed down to the low-end RB3/FLEX range in this tough spot on the ground. Is also banged up.

Jamaal Williams – Played 20 snaps (5 carries) in his return last week. I expect that Williams will live in the 8-12 carry range and get occasional goal-line work.

Derek Carr – As always, Carr remains a 2QB/SuperFlex league play.

Gardner Minshew – You might be tempted to chase last week’s 34.1 FP bomb. The Saints are struggling to generate pressure. However, their secondary is stingy. Marcus Lattimore is having his best year as a pro. New Orleans is only allowing 0.32 passing fantasy points per dropback (6th-fewest). There are better streamer options for 1-QB leagues.

Taysom Hill

Rashid Shaheed – Has yet to see more than 18% of the targets in a single game.

Sleepers

Juwan Johnson – Got in a full practice on Friday and is off of the injury report after missing the last four weeks with a calf injury. The Colts are allowing the 6th-most yards (59.6) and the 3rd-most receptions (6.1) on a per-game basis to TEs.

Jaguars at Steelers

Must Start

Travis Etienne – He’s not losing this role. Tank Bigsby has taken his 20 carries for 45 yards and does not have a gain of 10 or more yards yet. Among running backs, only Kyren Williams (83%) and Saquon Barkley (81%) have higher snap shares than Etienne (80%).

Start ‘Em

Trevor Lawrence – Once again, he is right on the back end of the QB1 radar. TJ Watt is a game-breaking defender and pass rusher, but this Steelers secondary looks like one to target. Pittsburgh is allowing the 7th-most passing fantasy points per dropback (0.40). It’s a small boost for fantasy, but Lawrence is scrambling more often when his first and second reads are not open. He’s rushed for 20 or more yards in 4-of-6 starts after doing so in 8-of-19 games last season.

Diontae Johnson and George Pickens – Johnson had no restrictions after missing four games with a hamstring injury. He ran a route on 86% of the Steelers' pass plays and earned 6 targets (5/79 receiving). Meanwhile, Pickens (5/107 receiving) continues to ascend. He routinely makes freak, outlier-ish catches along the boundary every week. The Steelers came out of their bye and funneled their duo a whopping 70% of the first-read targets vs. the Rams. However, unlike last week, this is an exceptionally good matchup. The Jaguars are allowing the 3rd-most fantasy points per game to opposing outside receivers (26.0).

Christian Kirk – The Steelers play a good bit of man coverage (37% | 5th-highest rate), which will give Kirk a few opportunities to get loose underneath. Once again, he’s the Jaguars man coverage-beater. Kirk has earned a whopping 31% target share vs. man, while Evan Engram has a 28% target share (Ridley 21%).

Evan Engram – Ranks right behind Ridley in target share against single-high coverages at 23.4%. A total of nine tight ends have seen 40 or more targets, and Engram is the only one without a TD.

FLEX Plays

Calvin Ridley – I like Ridley to bounce back here. The Steelers predominantly play single-high coverage (57% | 7th-highest rate), which tilts this matchup in Ridley’s favor. Ridley leads the team in target share (24%) and air yards share (43%) by a good margin over Kirk (17% TS | 22% AY) against single-high coverage looks. Last week, the Saints ran single-high on just 41% of the Jaguars pass plays. If Ridley airballs in this matchup, it’ll be time to press the panic button. The Steelers are allowing the 3rd-most yards per game to opposing outside receivers (147.7). Zay Jones (knee) is out.

Sit ‘Em

Kenny Pickett – Has finished as a top-12 scoring QB in fantasy once in 19 career starts.

Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren – Warren has finished no lower than RB32 but no higher than RB22 in his last 5 games. Najee scored his first TD of the season last week, and he’ll need another goal-line plunge here. This is a brutal matchup. The Jaguars run defense is stellar – particularly against zone-blocking runs. Jacksonville is allowing just 2.61 YPC (2nd-fewest) and a 37.5% success rate (3rd-lowest) on zone runs. The Steelers run zone-blocking over 60% of the time. At the very least, Warren should be heavily involved as a receiver. The Jaguars have allowed 4 or more receptions to every RB group they’ve faced.

Vikings at Packers

Must Start

TJ Hockenson – Over the last two weeks, Hockenson has averaged 0.36 targets per route run. That’s Kelce territory. Hockenson’s TPRR was 0.24 in Weeks 1-5. After a little bit of an injury scare (foot), Hockenson got in a full practice on Friday, and he doesn’t have an injury designation.

Start ‘Em

Kirk Cousins – After the top-6 QBs, you could make the argument for Cousins as QB7 on this slate. HC Kevin O’Connell is doing a masterful job of scheming up open reads, and Cousins is delivering consistent play from a clean pocket. Only Patrick Mahomes (89.8%) has a higher on-target, catchable throw rate from a clean pocket than Cousins (88.8%). LT Christian Darrisaw is protecting Cousins’ blindside better than ever, too. Despite the rough start, this offense is really starting to come together. Justin Jefferson is eligible to return in two weeks.

Jordan Addison – As noted by Chris Wecht, “Addison received 36.7% of the first-read targets in Week 7 (prior to leaving due to cramps). That would be the 3rd-highest FR share registered by a Vikings receiver.”

FLEX

Aaron Jones – The healthiest that he’s been since Week 1. Jones was targeted 5 times on 11 routes last week. The Vikings run defense is strong, but Jones should be back into the 10-14 carry range in this spot.

Sit ‘Em

Alexander Mattison and Cam Akers – Just when it seemed like Mattison had fended off Akers for the time being, this backfield was thrown back into chaos in Week 7. Mattison led the way in snaps (55%), but Akers had more carries (10 to 8) in totality. Interestingly, Akers had 5 carries in the 4th quarter as the Vikings tried to salt away the win. Mattison had just 1 fourth-quarter carry. Ideally, you’re avoiding this backfield for Week 8 decisions. The Packers are giving up the 3rd-most scrimmage yards per game (154.3) to opposing RBs if you need to chase one of Mattison or Akers as a FLEX.

KJ Osborn – Has finished as the WR46 and WR43 in scoring over the last two weeks. Osborn is tied with Brandon Powell with 0.18 targets per route run without Justin Jefferson. That’s well behind Addison (0.26), and both RBs – Mattison (0.27) and Akers (0.24).

Jordan Love – We know that the Vikings love to blitz. DC Brian Flores is blitzing more often than any defense in modern history, sending at least one extra rusher on 53% of opponents' dropbacks. Those blitzes are generating pressure a modest 41% of the time (19th). The Packers have done a good job at keeping Love clean up to this point, however, he’s struggled mightily when pressured. Love is completing just 38% of his passes when pressured (vs. 62% when unpressured).

A.J. Dillon

Romeo Doubs – With Christian Watson back, Doubs has been targeted just 9 times on 51 routes (0.18 TPRR) over his last two games. In Weeks 1-4, Doubs led the team in TPRR (0.29).

Christian Watson – The good news is that he’s not on the injury report after last week’s scare with a knee injury. The bad news is that the Packers offense is broken, leaving Watson as a boom-or-bust WR3. Love’s struggles vs. pressure do not give us much hope.

Jayden Reed – Has just 6 targets over his last two games.

Sleepers

Luke Musgrave – Out of the doghouse. Over the last two weeks, he is tied with Watson for the team lead in targets (12) and first-reads (21% share). Musgrave (ankle) did not practice on Wednesday or Thursday, but got in a limited practice on Friday.

Texans at Panthers

Start ‘Em

Adam Thielen – He’s running the majority of his routes from the slot and absolutely cooking, racking up 298 yards over the last three weeks with Bryce Young. On the year, Thielen is WR8 by Half-PPR points per game. Carolina is making a play-caller change from HC Frank Reich to OC Thomas Brown, so we will see if Jonathan Mingo or DJ Chark get more involved here. Mingo had a season-low 3 targets in Week 6, while Chark and Young have been out of sync all season. Thielen is the only one consistently getting open underneath.

C.J. Stroud – Coming out of the bye, this is a pretty good spot to stream Stroud. The Panthers have the weakest pass rush in the league right now, generating pressure on a league-low 13.5% of opponents’ pass plays when they do not blitz. Stroud has shown tremendous poise and accuracy when he’s thrown from a clean pocket, ranking 4th in YPA (8.7) with a lowly 1.9% turnover-worthy throw rate (9th-lowest) when he’s not pressured. Stroud finished as the QB7, QB11, QB10, QB17, and QB12 in his last five starts.

Nico Collins – The Panthers' perimeter CBs are allowing league-highs in yards (2.76) and fantasy points (0.47) on a per-route basis to outside wide receivers. Dial up Collins as a WR2. Collins is Stroud’s first-read 26.1% of the time, followed by Woods (22%) and Dell (18%).

Dalton Schultz – We’re chasing TDs at tight end. Schultz leads the Texans in end-zone targets (6) over Woods (4) and Collins (2). After it seemed like Schultz’s season was lost after he ran a route on just 33% of the pass plays in Week 4 – his route share spiked to 66% over his last two games. The Panthers are allowing 8.6 yards per target to opposing tight ends (5th-most) for one final matchup boost.

FLEX Plays

Dameon Pierce and Devin Singletary – “Texans OC Bobby Slowik basically said on Oct. 11 that Pierce isn’t a great fit in his outside-zone running scheme, and it was notable that Devin Singletary split the workload with him in Week 6. Singletary finished with a team-high 58 rushing yards on 12 carries and a 56% snap rate, while Pierce had 13/34 rushing on a 33% snap share.” (H/T Tom Brolley) With the likelihood that this is a full-blown committee out of the bye, Pierce is a low-floor FLEX, while Singletary should be rostered in all leagues. What’s a bummer (for our game) is that this is a great matchup. Carolina is allowing 4.87 YPC (4th-most), and they’ve faced a league-high 21 carries inside-the-5 in just 6 games.

Sit ‘Em

Miles Sanders and Chuba Hubbard – After a strong start in Week 1, Sanders has not been effective playing through two injuries. He is averaging 3.1 yards per carry and 3.0 yards per target (61 carries | 24 targets). Sanders picked up a groin injury in August that caused him to miss a lot of practice time, and missed Week 6 with a shoulder injury. Chuba Hubbard gave the Panther run game a little life in his absence, tallying up 19/88/1 rushing vs. Miami. HC Frank Reich said that this will be a hot-hand situation moving forward. We’ll see if Sanders can return to form now that he’s practicing and off of the injury report. Houston’s run defense is much improved. They’re allowing just 3.1 YPC (4th-fewest) and a 43.7% success rate (10th-lowest) on zone-blocking runs. Ideally, you’re avoiding Panthers RBs this week to see how this situation plays out.

Bryce Young – 2QB/SuperFlex league play.

DJ Chark and Jonathan Mingo – We’ll see if the play-caller change mixes anything up here. Chark has one (1!!) target of 20+ air yards in four games with Bryce Young.

Hayden Hurst

Sleepers

Tank Dell – Dell can absolutely be put into lineups as an upside WR4/FLEX option for all of the same reasons we like Stroud and Collins. Robert Woods (foot) is out.

Eagles at Commanders

Must Start

Jalen Hurts – Not on the injury report after wearing a brace on his knee last week.

AJ Brown – Has an absolutely absurd 41/701/3 receiving (on 59 targets) over his last five games. Now he gets the premier matchup for outside receivers. Washington is allowing a league-high 152.3 yards per game to opposing boundary WRs.

D’Andre Swift – Had a TD stolen by Gainwell last week. However, he played on 68% of the snaps – which is the second-highest rate of his season. Since Week 1, Swift has handled at least 17 touches in six straight games.

Start ‘Em

Terry McLaurin – Over the last two weeks, McLaurin has commanded 35.4% of the first-read targets. That’s more like it. The Eagles are giving up the 5th-most fantasy points per game to outside wide receivers (25.4).

Dallas Goedert – In their Week 3 meeting, Goedert (2/25 receiving on 4 targets) was not a huge part of the game plan as the offense funneled through Brown and Smith. Since then, the Commanders have been destroyed by opposing tight ends. Over the last three weeks, Washington has allowed 23/238/4 receiving (on 28 targets).

FLEX Plays

DeVonta Smith – After a hot start, Smith has finished as the WR71, WR24, WR99, WR44, and WR44 over the last five weeks. Brown has out-targeted Smith by a 59 to 35 margin in this span. I thought that the matchup last week would help Smith last week until CB Xavien Howard missed the game. Brown dominated again. To give us a little hope, Smith’s best game in this five-week stretch came against Washington (7/78 receiving).

Sit ‘Em

Sam Howell – Do you really have the confidence to stream him against this front seven?

Brian Robinson – Starting to split carries with Chris Rodriguez. Over the last two weeks, Robinson has 18 carries (54 yards), while Rodriguez has taken his 11 attempts for 54 yards as well. Antonio Gibson (46% route share) plays ahead of Robinson (27%) on passing downs when the Commanders are trailing, which leaves us with little to work with here. The Eagles are allowing a league-low 53.1 rushing yards per game.

Curtis Samuel – Low-ceiling FLEX option. McLaurin has the better matchup. The Eagles are struggling against outside receivers, but are much better against slot wideouts. Philadelphia is allowing the 3rd-fewest fantasy points per route run to slot receivers (0.23).

Jahan Dotson

Sleepers

Logan Thomas – In play as a desperation streamer. The Eagles haven’t faced any talented options in the last three weeks, but they are allowing an 80% catch rate (5th-highest) and 8.2 yards per target (6th-most) to tight ends.

Rams at Cowboys

Must Start

Tony Pollard – The most “due” player in fantasy football. Pollard is averaging 19.3 expected fantasy points per game (Half-PPR) based on his role, however, he’s only produced 13.4 FPG. The Rams are not a run defense we should shy away from. They just allowed 20/85/2 rushing to the Steelers' dormant ground game, while the Cardinals had 20/87 (4.4 YPC) the week prior. Dallas has the 6th-highest implied team total on the slate (26 points).

Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua – Kupp had two uncharacteristic drops last week, and two of his targets were uncatchable. That’s part of the reason for how he bottomed out to 2/29 receiving. The other part of the equation is that Puka Nacua is unguardable and an absolute freight train after the catch. HC Sean McVay is having one of his best seasons and is scheming his duo into space every single week. Kupp and Nacua have combined for 63.3% of the total targets and 79.2% (!!) of the air yards over the last three weeks. Dallas is allowing the 8th-fewest schedule-adjusted FP (-5.4 per game) to opposing receivers, but you’re not taking these two out of lineups.

Start ‘Em

CeeDee Lamb – Dallas finally played in a “normal” game in Week 6 vs. the Chargers, and what do you know… Lamb had a great game (7/117 receiving). This a potential blow-up spot if Matthew Stafford can keep the game close on the other side. The Rams are allowing 89.9 yards per game to opposing slot receivers (3rd-most).

Rams backfield

Darrell Henderson – As expected, it was not Zach Evans starting in the backfield last week. Henderson ended up leading the way in snaps (59%) over Royce Freeman (42%). Notably, Henderson handled 64% of the backfield's expected fantasy points and out-snapped Freeman 3 to 0 in the red zone. Ideally, you don’t have to start Henderson, but he will continue to earn the most snaps because HC Sean McVay trusts him in pass protection. Dallas can be vulnerable to the run, too. They’re allowing 4.78 YPC (6th-highest) and a 62.7% success rate (highest) on zone-blocking runs. Henderson is in play as an RB3/FLEX.

Sit ‘Em

Dak Prescott – We liked Dak as a top streamer in Week 6, but he’s a much trickier projection in this spot. The Rams are playing air-tight zone coverage and are limiting opposing QBs to the league’s 2nd-lowest completion rate below expectation (-6.7%). Prior to his 24.9 FP outing vs. the Chargers, Dak’s previous best finish was QB17. He’s more of a strong QB2 as opposed to QB1. I’d play Goff over Prescott.

Matthew Stafford – Has not finished higher than QB15 in any game. However, he’s not finished any lower than QB22. Stafford was free gold in SuperFlex leagues, but not someone we ideally want in lineups in 1-QB formats. RT Rob Havenstein picked up a calf injury mid-week and is questionable. His potential absence looms large with Micah Parsons on tap.

Michael Gallup and Brandin Cooks – The Rams are getting burnt in the slot partly due to scheme, and because they’re so sound on the perimeter. Their outside cornerbacks are limiting opposing boundary wide receivers to the 5th-fewest yards per game (88.6) and the 3rd-fewest schedule-adjusted FP (-9.1).

Tyler Higbee

Tutu Atwell

Sleepers

Jake Ferguson – The Rams are allowing the 5th-most yards per game to TEs (62.4) if you want to take the plunge as a streaming option. Ferguson ran a route on a season-high 84.2% of the pass plays in Week 6.

Patriots at Dolphins

Must Start

Tua Tagovailoa – You’re obviously not taking him out of lineups unless you have one of Hurts, Allen, Mahomes, Herbert, or Jackson. However, this game could certainly underwhelm expectations. The last two meetings of Dolphins-Patriots (with a healthy Tua) have yielded just 41 and 27 total points.

Tyreek Hill – Has tallied 8/94 (on 12 targets) and 5/40/1 (9 targets) vs. the Patriots with Tua under center.

Raheem Mostert – Got crushed last week due to matchup and game script. The good news is that Mostert still handled 65% of the backfield XFP, with Salvon Ahmed and Jeff Wilson mixing in. Just as a reminder of his TD upside… In four starts without De’Von Achane, Mostert has a 76% red-zone snap share. That would tie Travis Etienne for the 7th-highest rate among RBs.

Start ‘Em

Jaylen Waddle – Dealt with a back issue last week but is not listed on the Week 8 injury report. The Patriots are still playing man coverage on 39% of opponents' pass plays (3rd-highest rate) even without CB Christian Gonzalez over the last three weeks. However, HC Bill Belichick greatly reduced the Patriots' deployment of man coverage in their Week 3 matchup (27%). If New England runs zone coverage more often again, it will help swing the matchup in Waddle’s favor. This year, Tyreek Hill has out-targeted Waddle by a ridiculous 14 to 5 margin vs. man coverage. Against all zone coverages, Hill has 43 targets (29% share) to Waddle’s 31 (21%).

What we really need is for Waddle to start getting a few more downfield looks. His average depth of target has dipped to 8.0 yards vs. zone coverage this season after he sported a 12.6-yard aDOT in 2022.

FLEX Plays

Rhamondre Stevenson – Has split the backfield expected fantasy points with Ezekiel Elliott by an exact 60% to 40% margin when the Patriots are trailing. And, it’s a 52/48 split in favor of Stevenson when the Patriots have managed to hold a lead on the scoreboard. Zeke has 6 carries inside-the-10 compared to 5 for Stevenson. This backfield committee makes Stevenson an RB3/FLEX play, while Zeke is TD-dependent.

Sit ‘Em

Mac Jones

Ezekiel Elliott

Hunter Henry – His route share has declined in four straight games (74% > 70% > 49% > 36%).

Demario Douglas – Stash for deep leagues. Douglas was elevated to full-time usage out of the slot last week. Douglas’ 73% route share easily eclipsed his previous season-high of 40%. Hopefully, JuJu Smith-Schuster (concussion) has officially been phased out of this offense, and we can get a steady rotation of Kendrick Bourne and Douglas.

Sleepers

Kendrick Bourne – In four games where he’s played more than 80% of the snaps, Bourne is averaging 8.5 targets per game and 13.9 Half-PPR FPG That would make him the WR15, respectively, in fantasy points per game.

Update: The Dolphins may have both Xavien Howard and Jalen Ramsey starting, which would pose a significant matchup downgrade to Bourne.

Jets at Giants

Must Start

Breece Hall – His snap rate has skyrocketed from 46% > 52% > 68% over his last three games. In Week 6, Hall got a whopping 76.1% of the backfield expected fantasy points – which is bell-cow usage. In Weeks 1-5, Hall got just 47% of the backfield XFP. This is an absolute blow-up spot for Hall against a Giants run defense that is allowing 4.83 YPC (5th-most).

Start ‘Em

Saquon Barkley – If we exclude their Week 1 blowout, Barkley has played on 86% of the snaps and is averaging 21.2 XFP per game (RB2) across his last three starts. The Jets are obviously a tough matchup on the ground. However, Barkley should be active in the pass game. The Jets are giving up the 2nd-most receptions (6.8) and 4th-most receiving yards (53) per game to opposing running backs.

Garrett Wilson – The Giants love to blitz and play man coverage behind. Wilson has 22 targets (on 46 attempts) when Zach Wilson is blitzed for a monster 47.8% target share. The Giants blitz on 43% of their opponent's dropbacks (3rd-most). Garrett Wilson has 7 or more targets in five straight games. So, at the very least, we have confidence that he will draw looks.

Darren Waller – Has 19 targets (23.8% share) and 15/172/1 receiving with Tyrod Taylor under center. This is a tough matchup, but Waller looked explosive on his routes last week. He’s fully healthy after tending to a hamstring injury. HC Brian Daboll has made Waller the WR1 after the Week 4 debacle (3 targets vs. Seattle). Over his last three games, Waller has seen 41.7%, 28.6%, and 33% of the first-read targets.

Sit ‘Em

Zach Wilson

Giants WRs – Top CBs Sauce Gardner and DJ Reed should be back following their absences in Week 6. The Jets are allowing the 4th- and 3rd-fewest fantasy points per game to opposing outside and slot receivers, respectively. Jalin Hyatt remains a stash. The Giants desperately need his speed and quick-twitch ability on the field. Hyatt has run a route on 75% and 64% of the Giants pass plays over the last two weeks – which gives us a runway for a potential breakout. Wan’Dale Robinson remains a part-time, slot-only receiver with a 58.5% route share over the last three games.

Tyler Conklin

Falcons at Titans

Start ‘Em

Derrick Henry – Last season, Henry received 33, 17, 25, and 31 touches in four starts without Ryan Tannehill. He is a volume-based RB2 in what is a really tough matchup on the ground. Led by run-stuffer Grady Jarrett, the Falcons are allowing the 3rd-fewest YPC (3.21). Atlanta is one of 2 defenses yet to allow a rushing TD yet. The Titans have the lowest team total on the slate at 16.25 implied points.

Bijan Robinson – After last week’s debacle, let’s hit the reset button and take a look back at his usage. In six full starts, Robinson is averaging 13.3 carries and 5.3 targets per game. In Weeks 1-6, he ranked 11th among RBs in snap rate (72.1%). On the surface, that is right within the pre-season expectations here. However, Tyler Allgeier continues to get a lot of the money carries in the red zone. Allgeier has 14 carries to Robinson’s 7 inside-the-20.

Atlanta has only led on 70 snaps this season, so there could be some small sample stuff going on here. Still, it’s notable that Allgeier (18) also has more carries than Robinson (6) when the Falcons are ahead on the scoreboard. Despite the tougher matchup, Robinson has to go back into lineups as an upside RB2 in this spot.

FLEX Plays

Drake London – Has seen at least 23% of the targets in 5 of his last 6 games. The Titans are allowing the 7th-most schedule-adjusted FP to outside wide receivers. Keep rolling him out as a WR2/FLEX.

Sit ‘Em

DeAndre Hopkins – This is a worst-case scenario. Hopkins has finished outside of the top-36 scoring WRs in 4-of-6 games and now will have to play games without Ryan Tannehill (ankle). Will Levis is preparing to start. Regardless, this is a tough matchup. The Falcons are limiting opposing outside wide receivers to the 2nd-fewest yards per game (76.4).

Kyle Pitts – I have gotten him wrong every week this season, so this is probably a signal to start him. Lol. The Falcons got Van Jefferson involved as their primary slot receiver last week after Pitts functioned as the “big slot” in Weeks 1-6. I’d stream Dalton Kincaid, Jake Ferguson, and Dalton Schultz ahead of Pitts.

Desmond Ridder – This is a brutal game for fantasy upside, with both teams playing slowly and leaning heavily on the run. Falcons-Titans is the worst game of the week, by far, in my Pace/Plays/PROE model.

Jonnu Smith – As we noted last week, Smith’s part-time usage makes him a shaky streamer. Smith is only running a route on 58% of the pass plays, which really limits his opportunities in games where Atlanta does not throw much.

Treylon Burks – Will make his return. He practiced in full all week out of the Titans bye.

Tyler Allgeier – Low-floor, TD-dependent FLEX.

Tyjae Spears

Browns at Seahawks (4:05pm ET)

Start ‘Em

Ken Walker – Has set back-to-back season-highs in snaps over the last two weeks (76% > 80%). Walker is off of the injury report for Week 8 after missing a few practices early in the week.

FLEX Plays

D.K. Metcalf and Tyler Lockett – In Weeks 1-6, Lockett led this duo by a slim margin in target share (20%) over Metcalf (19%). Both wideouts saw 36% of the air yards. Metcalf is a great buy-low trade candidate. However, both he and Lockett are boom-or-bust WR2/3 options this week. Cleveland is allowing the 6th-fewest yards (89) and a league-low 4.7 receptions on a per-game basis to outside receivers. Metcalf is fully off of the injury report after dealing with nagging hip/rib injuries. Lockett got in a full practice on Friday and should be good to go.

Browns RB situation

Kareem Hunt – In a bit of a surprise, Jerome Ford (high ankle sprain) got back to practice on Friday. Hunt is off of the injury report.

If Ford indeed is ruled out, it’s notable that Pierre Strong out-snapped Hunt by a 17 to 9 margin after Ford went down with the injury last week. It’s really hard to get excited about this backfield up against a Seattle front-seven allowing a league-low 3.14 YPC.

Sit ‘Em

Amari Cooper – Seattle’s defense is really starting to gel. Over the last three weeks with CBs Riq Woolen and Devon Witherspoon on the field, the Seahawks have held opposing receivers to just 40/336/2 receiving (on 61 targets). That’s a lowly 5.51 yards per target allowed. With PJ Walker under center, Cooper is a boom-or-bust WR3.

Jaxon Smith-Njigba – Stepped up last week with Metcalf sidelined. JSN’s route share has risen in four straight games (61% > 72% > 75% > 79%) as Seattle continues to shy away from their traditional 2-TE heavy offense. Josh Downs got free for a long 50+ yard TD last week on a busted play, but we still have to respect how difficult this matchup is. Cleveland is allowing a league-low 7.1 Half-PPR points per game to slot receivers.

Geno Smith – SuperFlex/2QB-leagues only.

PJ Walker – Fire up Seahawks D/ST.

Elijah Moore – Has not finished better than WR38 in a single game in Half-PPR leagues.

David Njoku – Seattle has held opposing tight ends to 11/71 receiving (on 16 targets) over their last 3 games.

Ravens at Cardinals (4:25pm ET)

Must Start

Lamar Jackson – Has the upside to score 30 FP again this week. Arizona is allowing a score (FG or TD) on 47% of their opponents’ possessions (2nd-highest rate). Through the air, the Cardinals are giving up 0.43 passing FP per dropback (6th-most) and 8.15 YPA (3rd-most).

Mark Andrews – Has scored as a top-12 tight end in weekly output in 5-of-6 games, and three performances were top-3.

Start ‘Em

Zay Flowers – Arizona is getting torched for 148 yards (2nd-most) and 25.5 fantasy points (4th-most) on a per-game basis to opposing outside receivers. Flowers has seen at least 21% of the targets from Jackson in 6-of-7 games.

FLEX Plays

Marquise Brown – Has seen 7 or more targets in six straight games. However, just like last week, this is another tough matchup against his old team. Baltimore is giving up the 2nd-fewest fantasy points per route run to opposing outside and slot receivers.

Gus Edwards – I was dead wrong about Edwards last week. Detroit’s run defense collapsed, and Edwards exploded for 144 scrimmage yards. Over the Ravens' last two games, Edwards has handled 56% of the snaps, 59% of the backfield XFP, and 71.4% of the RB carries. Most importantly, Edwards has retaken the goal-line role. He has out-snapped Justice Hill by a wide 11 to 2 margin inside-the-10 in Weeks 6-7. Arizona is allowing 4.20 YPC (8th-most), and they’ve faced 16 carries inside-the-5 (3rd-most).

Emari Demarcado – After it seemed like this backfield was headed toward a full-blown committee, the Cardinals just made Demarcado their bell cow in Week 7. Keaontay Ingram was straight-up benched. Arizona loaded up Demarcado with 79% of the snaps, and he handled 13-of-14 carries. With that type of usage, he’s back on the RB2/FLEX radar. The Ravens are playing impenetrable defense in the red zone and are just not giving up touchdowns. Baltimore has allowed a league-low 6 TDs this season.

Sit ‘Em

Odell Beckham and Rashod Bateman – Finally overtook Nelson Agholor last week. Beckham was the WR2 with a 61% route share last week while Bateman was still part-time (42%).

Michael Wilson

Sleepers

Trey McBride – With Zach Ertz (quad) going on I.R. for the next four games, we have a runway for a breakout here. McBride has shown promise in a limited sample this season. On his 80 routes, McBride has earned 15 targets and is averaging 2.13 YPRR (3rd-best among tight ends). The Cardinals target their in-line tight ends on 16% of pass plays (3rd-highest rate).

Chiefs at Broncos (4:25pm ET)

Must Start

Travis Kelce – The Broncos do not have the linebacking corps to cover Kelce. Enforcer S Kareem Jackson (suspension) is out.

Patrick Mahomes – Denver deployed two-high safety coverage against Mahomes on 53% of his dropbacks in Week 6. That’s a big departure from Denver’s scheme since they’re primarily a one-high safety unit. The Broncos are clearly not trying to get beat deep. Mahomes attempted one pass of 20+ yards on 45 dropbacks in their last meeting. He will pepper Kelce and Rashee Rice underneath targets.

Start ‘Em

Isaiah Pacheco

FLEX Plays

Javonte Williams – Looks fantastic. Williams’ burst and elusiveness is all of the way back. We’ll see if it earns him more touches. Last week, Williams handled 54% of the backfield expected fantasy points and 52% of the snaps. That’s way up from 33% of the XFP and 35% of the snaps in Week 6. Kansas City is much-improved defensively, but they can be run on. The Chiefs are allowing 4.3 YPC (7th-most).

Rashee Rice – Ranks second on the team in targets per route run (0.33), just behind Kelce (0.37). Rice’s route share has climbed in three straight games (19% > 39% > 56%).

Mid

Courtland Sutton and Jerry Jeudy – In their Week 6 meeting, the Chiefs used two-high safety coverage on a whopping 66% of the Broncos' pass plays. Sutton leads Jeudy in targets vs. two-high safety coverage (20 to 16), and he has posted significantly better efficiency marks (Sutton – 1.53 YPRR | Jeudy – 0.83 YPRR). Sutton is in play as a WR3/FLEX. Jeudy has fewer receiving yards (83) vs. two-high safety coverage than Marvin Mims (150).

Sit ‘Em

Russell Wilson – SuperFlex/2QB only. The Chiefs are allowing 0.31 passing fantasy points per dropback (5th-fewest) and 6.12 YPA (4th-fewest).

Jaleel McLaughlin – 17% snap rate in Week 6 is a five-week low.

Marvin Mims – Ran a route on a season-high 42% of the pass plays last week, but that’s not enough to get him out of this three-way timeshare with Brandon Johnson and Lil’Jordan Humphrey.

Marquez-Valdes Scantling – Last week (12% target share) was the first time that MVS saw more than 8% of the targets in a single game all year.

Skyy Moore

Kadarius Toney – With Mecole Hardman back and Rice ascending, Toney ran a route on just 17.8% of the Chiefs' pass plays in Week 8.

Bengals at 49ers (4:25pm ET)

Must Start

Christian McCaffrey – After three straight tough matchups (vs. Dallas, Cleveland, and Minnesota), this is a spot for CMC to rip some big gains. The Bengals are allowing 4.97 YPC and a league-high 8.3% explosive run rate.

Ja’Marr Chase – The 49ers have allowed production to receivers all year. Puka Nacua (15/147), Michael Wilson (7/76/2), Marquise Brown (7/96), Amari Cooper (4/108), and Jordan Addison (7/123/2) have all found success vs. San Francisco.

In Weeks 1-3, Chase commanded a whopping 43% of the first-read targets vs. zone coverage (compared to 26% for Higgins). The 49ers play the 10th-highest rate of zone (75%).

Start ‘Em

Brandon Aiyuk

Joe Mixon – The results have not been there yet, but Mixon is seeing the best volume of his career. Mixon’s 74% snap rate ranks 7th among RBs, and he leads all RBs in team share of carries (79%). In fact, he’s the only RB to handle 100% of his team’s carries inside-the-20. This all makes Mixon a buy-low. He’s the RB12 by expected fantasy points, but only RB28 in actual FPG.

George Kittle – Deebo Samuel (shoulder) will miss another game and rest up through the Week 9 bye. Over the last three seasons, Kittle has averaged 7.5 targets, 5.2 receptions, and 89 yards per game in 6 contests without Deebo. He’s averaging 19.6 Half-PPR fantasy points per game when Deebo is out (vs. 9.3 FPG when Samuel is on the field).

Joe Burrow – After being taken off of the injury report in Week 5, Burrow looked like he had close to his usual mobility in the pocket in his last two starts. Burrow diced the Cardinals for 317 yards and 3 TDs in Week 5 before running into a tougher matchup against Seattle’s ascending defense in Week 6. Now he should be healthier than he’s been all season after the week off. Burrow is back in lineups as a back-end QB1 with the understanding that this likely won’t be a huge ceiling game. The 49ers are holding opposing quarterbacks to the 5th-fewest schedule-adjusted fantasy points (-2.6 below average).

Brock Purdy

FLEX Plays

Tee Higgins – Prior to injuring his ribs in Week 4, Higgins had 27 targets to Chase’s 32 in the first three games of the season. Higgins struggled in two tougher matchups vs. the Browns (0/0) and Rams (2/29), but crushed the Ravens for 8/89/2. With Joe Burrow (calf) at less than 100% to start the season, his connection with Higgins suffered. Just 63% of his targets were catchable in Week 1-3. With Burrow getting back healthy again, Higgins is an obvious buy-low trade candidate.

Sit ‘Em

Tyler Boyd

Bears at Chargers (SNF)

Must Start

Justin Herbert – The Bears have allowed 18 or more FP to 5-of-7 opposing QBs.

Austin Ekeler – Chicago is playing the run well this season, so we will need Ekeler to be involved in the pass game here. The Bears struggle against pass-catching backs. They’re allowing the 6th-most receptions (5.7 per game) and the 2nd-most receiving yards (56.9) to opposing RBs.

Keenan Allen – Just missed on a TD last week when Herbert overthrew him on a wide-open route. Allen has earned 9 or more targets in 5-of-6 games.

Start ‘Em

DJ Moore – Has 15 targets (on 43 attempts) from Tyson Bagent for a whopping 34.8% share. No secondary is allowing more fantasy points (27.7 per game) to opposing outside receivers than the Chargers.

Josh Palmer – In seven career starts without Mike Williams, Palmer averages 8.0 targets and 76.6 yards per game. The Bears are surrendering the 8th-most fantasy points and 10th-most yards on a per-game basis to opposing outside receivers. It’d be such a bummer if Palmer’s lingering knee issue causes him to miss the game. He’s a GTD.

Bears RB situation

D’Onta Foreman dominated last week with 19 touches, 120 scrimmage yards, and 3 TDs. We have to give credit where it's due – Foreman made the most of a great spot. This is a totally different outlook, though. The Bears were slight underdogs (+2.5) last week, but are more than touchdown dogs (+8.5) in this spot.

The Chargers have not been bad against the run this season. They’re allowing 3.61 YPC and the 6th-lowest explosive run rate (2.1%).

Roschon Johnson (concussion) got in a full practice on Wednesday, and he will mix in to make this a true 1A/1B committee.

Sit ‘Em

Tyson Bagent

Quentin Johnston – Has earned 7 targets on 64 routes over the last three games.

Cole Kmet – Over his last 42 games, Kmet has scored more than 10 Half-PPR points just four times when he has failed to score a touchdown.

Gerald Everett

Best and Worst Games

Rankings derived from my Pace/Plays/Passing game model.