Welcome to Start ‘Em Sit ‘Em, where I will break down the toughest calls you have on your roster every week. The point of this article is not to give you the best, top plays. That’s why we do projections that will highlight the best overall plays for your lineup.
Instead, we will focus on the players that you’re on the fence about and have a tough time deciding on. These are the QBs, RBs, WRs, and TEs right on the borderline of your lineups.
As always, my DMs in Discord (@GrahamBarfield) are open for any Start/Sit questions you may have, while Tom Brolley, John Hansen, and I will be streaming for subscribers on Sunday mornings to help answer any of your tough calls.
Unless stated otherwise, all of the data in this article is from Fantasy Points Data and specifically curated from the Data Suite. Our collection team has charted every play from every game over the last three seasons and we will have fresh, weekly data imported into the tools on Tuesday mornings after the games.
Let’s get to it.
Quarterbacks
Starts
Kirk Cousins (vs. Chargers)
Even though the Vikings are 0-2, Cousins has done his part. He has been surgical when given a clean pocket, ranking 1st in completions (83.9%), 3rd in YPA (9.02), 3rd in passer rating (125.7), and 3rd in catchable throw rate (90.3%) when unpressured. We’re monitoring the statuses of T Christian Darrisaw and C Garrett Bradbury, and if they can return in Week 3, it would give the Vikings offense a great boost headed into this matchup.
Los Angeles has been horrendous defensively, allowing Tua Tagovailoa to finish as QB1 in Week 1 while Ryan Tannehill carved through the Chargers (20-of-24, 246, 10.3 YPA) en route to a QB14 finish in Week 2. Not only is their secondary struggling, their defensive front has struggled to get pressure. The Chargers have generated pressure on just 20.8% of their opponents dropbacks when they do not blitz, which is the third-lowest rate in the league. Cousins is a strong QB1 play.
Sits
Daniel Jones (at 49ers)
It didn’t get off to a great start… but, we correctly called Jones a start last week and he delivered with a monster second-half performance en route to the QB1 finish (30.7 FP). Unfortunately, this is a polar opposite spot. Jones and the Giants are in a really rough position offensively not just with Saquon Barkley (ankle) out, but they will also be without T Andrew Thomas (hamstring) and G Ben Bredeson (concussion). That’s less-than-ideal news! New York’s offensive line has allowed the second-highest pressure rate (50.6%) while San Francisco’s defensive front has generated the fourth-highest rate of pressure (43.8%). Jones is a 2QB/SuperFlex-league only play in Week 3.
Streamers / SuperFlex Starts
Jared Goff (vs. Falcons)
As long as Amon-Ra St. Brown (toe) is cleared to play, this is a pretty great spot for Goff as a streamer. Goff cashed in a QB8 performance with 323 yards and 3 TDs in last week’s shootout against Seattle, which is a continuing theme for Lions’ games. Over the last two seasons, Detroit has been a home-favorite six times and each of those contests have combined for at least 51 points. Those six games averaged a whopping 64.6 points scored. Over the last two seasons, Goff averages 18.2 fantasy points and 281.3 passing yards per game when the Lions are favored vs. 15.0 FPG and 231.8 YPG when they’re underdogs.
Running Backs
Starts
Ken Walker (vs. Panthers)
After running cold in the TD department as a rookie, Walker proved he can cash in short TDs with scores of 1- and 3-yards against Detroit. The problem is that he found very little running room on his other carries. Seattle was without both of their starting tackles Abe Lucas (IR) and Charles Cross and our collection team charted Walker with just 0.29 yards before contact per carry in Week 2.
The good news is that Walker has operated as the clear lead runner (67% carry share | 9th-highest) over rookie Zach Charbonnet and he is the primary back on passing downs (Walker: 28 routes to Charbonnet’s 15).
We haven’t seen Walker get loose yet, but this is objectively his best spot so far. Seattle fell apart in Week 1 due to their offensive line injuries, while last week proved a tough matchup against Detroit’s much-improved front seven There is nothing about this matchup that is overly imposing after Carolina has allowed 4.47 YPC (12th-most) and a 6.8% explosive run rate (5th-highest) through two games. This leaves Walker as a high-upside RB2.
Alexander Mattison (vs. Chargers)
Mattison has been a disappointment so far, but he is getting the highest-end workload possible to give us a glimmer of hope here. This will likely be Mattison’s last chance to really show out with the addition of Cam Akers looming.
Despite handling 73% of the carries (3rd-highest share), running a route on 50% of the dropbacks (11th-highest share), getting 81% of the red-zone snaps (9th-highest), and ranking 9th-highest by XFP per game (16.2)… Mattison has finished as the RB18 and RB51 in Week 1-2.
The Chargers are better on run defense this season, but Mattison should have plenty of scoring chances in this game. The Vikings are tied with the Dolphins for the third-highest implied total (27.5) on the Week 3 slate. If he can’t bounce back as a strong RB2, we must wonder if Akers or Ty Chandler gets a shot at the starting job. After a rough week of injuries at the position, hold your nose and put Mattison back into lineups.
D’Andre Swift (at Buccaneers)
We’re obviously monitoring the status of Ken Gainwell (ribs) here, but even if he’s able to return in Week 3, we believe that Swift has taken over as the Eagles' “1A” – “starter” – whatever you want to call it. There is no doubt that Gainwell will continue to have a role, but it has to be in a complementary fashion after Swift just ran wild for 28/175/1. This might feel like chasing, but even if Swift gets just 14-16 touches, we will be more than happy with that weekly as a RB2 play. The Bucs’ have played solid run defense to start the season, but that comes with the massive asterisk of facing the Vikings' inept run game Week 1 and the Bears' inept offense Week 2.
Once again, the Eagles’ offensive line is paving massive lanes. No team has opened up more yards before contact (2.86 per carry) than Philadelphia. Given the state of the position this week, Swift is one of the highest-ceiling plays of the slate.
Sits
Dameon Pierce (at Jaguars)
I understand that running back isn’t deep at all this week after a slew of injuries, so you may not have a better choice than Pierce on your roster. It has been about as bad of a runout as possible for the Texans' run game after losing 4-of-5 starting offensive linemen. Pierce just has nowhere to go. Among the 48 RBs with at least 10 carries, Pierce ranks 44th in yards before contact at just 0.15 yards per carry. Brutal. In fact, 94.2% of Pierce’s total rushing yardage has come after contact – which is the fifth-highest rate in the league. The Jaguars have continued to play good run defense, continuing their late-2022 season trend. Jacksonville has allowed just 1.62 YPC (third-fewest) on zone-blocking runs, and zone runs are the foundation of Houston’s ground game.
James Conner (vs. Cowboys)
We have been all over Conner as a strong RB2, and he has done nothing but deliver. However, this spot could not possibly get any worse. We’re going to need Conner to re-join the passing game and get some dump-offs from Josh Dobbs because Arizona is going to struggle mightily to run the ball here. Dallas’ league-best defense has stifled opposing run games (2.76 YPC allowed | 4th-fewest). They have not allowed a gain of 10 or rush yards yet. Conner projects as a low-floor FLEX with the Cardinals' implied total sitting at a pitiful 15.5 points (fewest).
Wide Receivers
Starts
Amari Cooper (vs. Titans)
Despite coming into the game extremely questionable (groin), Amari Cooper was the lone bright spot for the Browns' pass game (7/90 receiving on 9 targets) with Deshaun Watson continuing to struggle. Cooper has gotten WR1-like first-read targets (30.2% share) and now gets a premier matchup. The Titans are very strong against the run again this season, which forces their opponents to throw more against them. As a result, the Titans outside cornerbacks see a ton of targets come their way, and they give up production in bunches. Through two games, Tennessee has allowed the second-most yards and fourth-most fantasy points to outside WRs. Cooper is my favorite WR2 start on the slate.
Mike Williams (at Vikings)
Williams (8/83 receiving on 13 targets) was a huge part of the Chargers' pass game in Week 2, as expected. Through two games, Williams has run 35% of his routes from the slot – which is up from 15.5% last season – and he has the same exact first-read target share (29.4%) as Keenan Allen. The spike weeks are coming, and this spot looks incredible. Williams getting more work in the slot is great, but the Vikings are struggling badly vs. outside WRs, which is where he will run the majority of his routes. Minnesota is allowing the 4th-most yards (2.55) and 6th-most fantasy points (0.46) on a per route basis to outside wide receivers. Go right back to Williams as a strong WR2/FLEX play.
Nico Collins (at Jaguars)
Collins has been a revelation for rookie QB C.J. Stroud, and he is delivering as the only downfield threat in this offense. He’s earned 33% and 25% of the first read targets in Weeks 1 and 2, and because Houston has fallen behind on the scoreboard quickly in both games, the bulk volume has been insane. Stroud deserves a lot of credit for his play and efforts behind a rag-tag offensive line. (Laremy Tunsil may be back this week.) Stroud has given the Texans receivers a whopping 70 total catchable targets, tied with Kirk Cousins for second-most among QBs. Collins is on the WR2/3 borderline with the Texans likely to lean pass-heavy again as 9.5-point underdogs.
FLEX Plays
Zay Flowers (vs. Colts)
If Anthony Richardson (concussion) is cleared to play, Ravens-Colts will be one of my favorite games of the week for fantasy. The Ravens rank eighth in pass rate over expectation through two games while the Colts are playing at a lightning-quick pace (24.5 seconds per snap | second-fastest).
Make no mistake: Mark Andrews is still the WR1 here. His 23% first read target share in his first game led the team, while Flowers (19.2%) was right behind him at #2. Promisingly, Flowers ran 71% of his routes lined up out wide and had an aDOT of 12.8 yards downfield. We can work with that usage. We are going to be picking on this inexperienced Colts secondary all year. Through two games, no defense has allowed more yards (393) or fantasy points (72.3) to outside WRs than Indianapolis. With Odell Beckham (ankle) not practicing to start the week, Flowers will be relied on heavily and is a strong WR3 play.
Sits
DeAndre Hopkins (at Browns)
Battling an ankle injury, Hopkins was very limited in Week 2 and ran a route on just 65.5% of the Titans' pass plays. Ryan Tannehill said he was “surprised” that Hopkins played despite not practicing all week, so this sounds like it could be a multi-week issue. Unfortunately, DeAndre Hopkins has struggled to get separation and has been charted as “open” or “wide open” on just 28.3% of his routes (fourth-lowest rate among qualified receivers). This was a massive concern of mine – Hopkins metrics against man coverage completely plummeted last season. The Browns have been much better defensively through two games, allowing the sixth-fewest fantasy points to outside WRs and the fourth-fewest FP to slot wideouts. Hopkins projects as a volume-dependent WR3.
Garrett Wilson (vs. Patriots)
In three career starts against the Patriots, QB Zach Wilson has completed 50% of his throws for 6.7 YPA, he has a 2:7 TD-to-INT ratio, and has absorbed 10 sacks (9.4% rate). As an offense, the Jets managed just 26 points on 36 possessions in those three games. Is that bad? Garrett Wilson has seen just nine catchable targets due largely to the Jets going extremely run-heavy and struggling to sustain drives. (Those nine catchable targets rank tied for 40th with Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Gabe Davis). Wilson is a baller, but he averages just 8.2 Half-PPR points per game in 11 career starts with Zach Wilson. It’s painful, but Wilson is a boom-or-bust WR3 in this matchup.
Tight Ends
Start
Hunter Henry (at Jets)
After running a route on just 55% of the Patriots pass plays in Week 1, Hunter Henry got a big role bump Week 2 (76.6% route share). Henry is the TE5 by XFP per game (11.7 Half-PPR) and has taken over as the Patriots slot receiver. Last week, OC Bill O’Brien demoted JuJu Dust-Duster (48.5% route share Week 2), while Henry ran 67% of his routes lined up in the slot. I’m going right back to Henry as a mid-range TE1 play. The Jets are giving up production to TEs again (7th-most FP allowed Weeks 1-2) after allowing the 7th-most schedule-adjusted FP to the position last season.
Sam LaPorta (vs. Falcons)
LaPorta has opened his rookie campaign with two usable, back-end TE1 finishes (TE12 > TE8) as a key part of the Lions pass game. The usage looked even better in his second game. Promisingly, his role grew from Week 1 (50% route share) to Week 2 (78.4% route share) – giving us the runway we need for a breakout game. The Falcons are a constant target for TE production.
Deep League / Spicy Starts
Jaylen Warren (at Raiders)
I faded Najee Harris in drafts and last week especially, and he came up short as expected (RB44 finish) as Cleveland’s front seven dominated. This could be the week that Warren finally gets his shot to breakout. It’s clear that he’s the better player at this point, and HC Mike Tomlin said as much after the Steelers' MNF win:
Mike Tomlin on Jaylen Warren: "You know, he's just making plays when given the opportunity. And I think that's a reasonable expectation. There's a guy that did similar things as a young guy a year ago and as a rookie and has done some really good things in the team development…
— Steelers Depot 7⃣ (@Steelersdepot) September 19, 2023
Nathaniel Dell (at Jaguars)
With veteran Noah Brown out with an injury, the rookie Tank Dell got a huge bump in his role in Week 2. Dell ran a route on 75.9% of the pass plays – which was up from 41.5% in Week 1. All Dell does is earn targets. After a great debut (7/72/1 on a team-high 10 targets), he immediately enters the FLEX conversation in deep leagues. Dell ran 68% of his routes lined up outside and had an aDOT of 9.1 yards, so we have a runway for some upside all season long.
Durham Smythe (vs. Broncos)
If you’re in desperate need of a streamer, Smythe is in play. He leads all TEs in route share (85.9%) through two games, and getting onto the field is half of the battle when it comes to this position. The Broncos struggled against tight ends last season (5th-most yards allowed) and just gave up 7/89/1 to Commanders TEs in Week 2.
Best and Worst Games
Rankings derived from my Pace/Plays/Passing game model.
