Week 15 Fantasy Football Start 'Em, Sit 'Em

Welcome to Week 15 Start ‘Em, Sit ‘Em.

As always, my DMs in our subscriber Discord (@GrahamBarfield) are open for any Start/Sit questions you may have, while Tom Brolley, John Hansen, and I will be streaming for subscribers on Sunday mornings to help answer any of your tough calls.

Unless stated otherwise, all of the data in this article is from Fantasy Points Data and specifically curated from the Data Suite. Our collection team has charted every play from every game over the last three seasons, and we will have fresh, weekly data imported into the tools on Tuesday mornings after the games.

Let’s have a great quarterfinals week!

Chargers at Raiders (TNF)

Start ‘Em

Austin Ekeler – It’s hilarious that the Chargers thought they could get Isaiah Spiller a hot hand last week. Ekeler is clearly not himself right now, but this offensive line remains a nightmare. Very few backs could run efficiently in this system, and that’s on the front office and coaching staff. This team has spent so many resources to try to fix their offensive line, and still, the Chargers are opening up the 2nd-fewest yards before contact (0.84 per carry). Ekeler remains a volume-based RB2. Despite the “hot hand approach” last week, Ekeler ended up playing his usual 72% of the snaps. Five of his 7 targets last week came from Easton Stick (3/17 receiving).

Davante Adams – In six games with Aidan O’Connell under center, Adams has posted 8/75 receiving (vs. Chargers), 4/34 (vs. Giants), 6/86 (vs. Jets), 7/83/1 (vs. Dolphins), and 5/73 (vs. Chiefs), and 7/53 (vs. Vikings). The box scores aren’t impressive for his talent, but Adams remains this entire passing offense. He’s seen 39% of the first-read targets (2nd-highest share in the league) and 52% of the air yards (highest) in O’Connell’s starts. For as much as matchups matter here, Adams gets a soft one. The Chargers are allowing +5.9 schedule-adjusted FPG to opposing outside receivers (3rd-most).

Sit ‘Em

Josh Palmer and Quinten Johnston – The Chargers are in a really rough spot offensively on Thursday without Keenan Allen. They’ll need Quinten Johnston to step up. Palmer returned to limited practice, but he might be limited after missing six games with a knee injury.

Zamir White – Including the preseason and his sparse regular season usage, Zamir White has 46/140/0 rushing (3.04 YPC) with two gains of 10 or more yards this year. There is a reason he does not have a role in this offense. Ameer Abdullah will mix in on passing downs with Josh Jacobs (quad) sidelined. LT Kolton Miller (shoulder) and C Andre James (ankle) are out.

Jakobi Meyers – In six games with O’Connell, he’s tallied 2/33, 2/38, 2/21, 4/49, 6/79/1, and 5/25 receiving.

Aidan O’Connell

Easton Stick

Gerald Everett – Last week marked the first time all season that Everett ran a route on more than 60% of the Chargers pass plays in a single game. He has 13/126/1 (on 17 targets) over the last three weeks.

Michael Mayer – Still a part-time player. Last week, Mayer ran a route on 53% of the Raiders pass plays.

Vikings at Bengals (Saturday | 1pm ET)

Must Start

TJ Hockenson

Start ‘Em

Justin Jefferson – In yet another cruel twist of his season, Jefferson (chest) exited last week after he was left high and dry by Josh Dobbs on a pass over the middle. His day ended with 2 receptions. Jefferson was taken to the hospital and checked out after the big hit, but he returned to limited practice all week. If you’ve made it this far with Jefferson – congratulations! Unsurprisingly, he has the single lowest advance rate of any player on Underdog this season (H/T Justin Herzig).

Ja’Marr Chase – The good news is that he’s seen 26 targets (on 102 attempts) from Jake Browning. Outside of one big splash play against the Jaguars, Chase has been held in check (for his standards) despite Jake Browning playing well. It didn’t help that the Bengals only needed to throw it 24 times last week in their blowout win. This matchup is beatable. The Vikings are allowing the 10th-most fantasy points per game (20.8) to opposing outside receivers. Chase got in a full practice on Thursday, and he’s off of the injury report.

Joe Mixon – He just keeps running hot. Mixon has scored 15 or more FP (Half-PPR) just five times all season, but all of those performances have come in the last 7 games. This surge in production comes with the rookie Chase Brown starting to emerge as a big play threat. Over the last two weeks, Mixon has 40 carries and 11 targets on 67% of the snaps. Brown (17 targets, 3 carries on 22% of the snaps) hasn’t carved out a big enough role to consider in FLEX decisions, but he’s a top stash for the fantasy playoffs. Mixon’s role remains really strong.

FLEX Plays

Ty Chandler – He’s in line to start with Alexander Mattison (ankle) out. Over the last four weeks, Chandler has 41/161/1 rushing (3.9 YPC), and he’s added 8/47 receiving (on 9 targets). With only special teamer Kene Nwangwu behind him on the depth chart, we’re going to see Chandler in an every-down role if Mattison is out. This is a great spot. The Bengals are allowing 4.56 YPC (3rd-most) and a league-high 51.7% success rate on the ground.

Sit ‘Em

Jordan Addison – Since Kirk Cousins (Achilles) was lost for the season, Addison has 33 targets (20/231/0 receiving). He has registered scoring weeks of WR35, WR33, WR47, WR48, and WR61 as a result.

Tee Higgins – He’s still not a full-time player yet. Over the last two weeks, Higgins has run a route on 64% and 67% of the pass plays.

Tyler Boyd

Nick Mullens – The Josh Dobbs experiment is over. We’re just hoping that Mullens can keep Jefferson and Hockenson afloat for three games. I will say that Mullens hasn’t been bad across five scattered appearances with the Vikings, as he’s completed 79% of his 38 throws for 8.1 YPA (307 yards), 1 TD, 1 INT, and 0 sacks.

Tanner Hudson

Sleepers

Jake Browning – In three starts, Browning has weekly finishes of QB19, QB3, and QB2. He has more top-5 weekly finishes (two) than Joe Burrow had all season (0). Browning is on the board as a top streamer this week, but we really need deep passing to return this offense. On his 120 dropbacks, Browning has attempted six passes of 20+ yards in air (and he’s completed just 2 of them). His 5.4-yard average depth of throw ranks dead last out of 44 QBs – even lower than Tim Boyle (6.0-aDOT on 77 attempts). Minnesota is super aggressive and they don’t give up much production. The Vikings are tied with the Packers in passing fantasy points allowed per dropback (0.33 | 6th-fewest).

Steelers at Colts (Saturday | 4:30pm ET)

Must Start

Michael Pittman – He just continues to compile stats. Pittman has seen at least 22% of the Colts' targets in nine straight starts with Gardner Minshew. And, over his last six outings, Pittman has received 27%, 31%, 39%, 32%, 38%, and 28% of the targets. That type of volume is rare to come by. He has recorded at least eight receptions in 7-of-9 games with Minshew.

Pittman is going to see a good amount of man coverage this week, and that will just keep the target funnel open. With Gardner Minshew at quarterback, Pittman has received a whopping 35% of the targets vs. man-to-man coverage (compared to 28% vs. zone coverages). The Steelers run man coverage on 35% of their snaps (5th-highest).

Start ‘Em

Zack Moss – Welp. Zack Moss’ two weeks as the starter have not gone well. Moss has been held to just 79 rushing yards on 32 carries (2.47 YPC), and he’s added 6/34 receiving (on 11 targets). This would be a slightly different conversation if he didn’t have a TD wiped out due to a penalty against the Bengals. Still, despite playing nearly every snap in Weeks 13-14, we are left with just 14.3 Half-PPR FP. Jonathan Taylor (thumb) is out for another game, and his recovery timeline is 3-5 weeks. Taylor could return in Week 16 as the Colts fight to stay in the AFC Wild Card hunt. Moss is downgraded after his recent performance, but I’m going right back to him as a volume-based RB2. The Steelers have gotten crushed for 22.5 FP vs. James Conner and 23.5 vs. Ezekiel Elliott over the last two weeks.

FLEX Plays

Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren – Despite dealing with a knee injury and playing on a short week, Najee Harris was not at all limited in Week 14. He played on his usual 57% of the snaps and split with Jaylen Warren (52%). As expected, the Colts played strong run defense (3.7 YPC allowed) last week with DT Grover Stewart back – but they were absolutely lit up in the screen game by Bengals RBs (6/126/1 receiving on 7 targets). As always, Harris and Warren are in play as back-end RB2/FLEX options.

Diontae Johnson – Last week, Johnson co-led the team in targets (7) with Pat Freiermuth. A 25-yard TD bailed us out for fantasy (3/57/1 receiving). This has been the case all season, but once again, Johnson saw 27% of the first reads compared to Pickens down at 19% with Trubisky under center. Johnson is holding onto life as a WR3/FLEX option up against a Colts secondary that’s allowing the 10th-most yards per game (121.5) to opposing outside receivers.

Sit ‘Em

George Pickens – In 26 contests with Diontae Johnson, he’s averaging 5.3 targets, 46.6 yards, and 7.8 Half-PPR points on a per-game basis.

Josh Downs – Unfortunately, his fantasy season has crumbled. Downs has just 89 yards and 11 receptions (on 21 targets) over the last three weeks. It’s just really hard for a second receiver to thrive here with Pittman getting so many targets.

Pat Freiermuth – He crushed the Bengals three weeks ago (9/120 receiving on 11 targets) but Freiermuth has been largely unproductive in his six other games (15/107/2 receiving on 26 targets).

Gardner Minshew – Across 9 starts, Minshew has delivered two top-10 weekly finishes among quarterbacks. One of those weeks came in that Week 7 shootout with the Browns, where he scored 2 random rushing TDs.

Mitch Trubisky

Broncos at Lions (Saturday | 8:15pm ET)

Must Start

Amon-Ra St. Brown – You’re not moving off of St. Brown as a WR1, but this matchup doesn’t look like an easy bounce-back spot. St. Brown is coming off of the worst two-week stretch of his career with just 5/70/1 receiving on 15 targets, and he’s met with another draw where he’ll have to fight for big plays. Since Week 5, Denver has held opposing wide receivers to -9.2 schedule-adjusted FPG below average. Only the New York Jets (-15.7) are tougher matchup.

Sam LaPorta – While the Broncos are playing tight coverage in the secondary, their LB/S corps is about to get shredded by LaPorta. Denver is allowing the 2nd-most yards per game (69.4) to opposing tight ends. Over the last five weeks, St. Brown has earned 32% of the first read targets while LaPorta is at 20%. Jahmyr Gibbs (12%) is the next closest Lion.

Start ‘Em

Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery – Since Montgomery returned from an injury in Week 10, this backfield has shifted toward Gibbs’ favor. In their last 5 games together, Gibbs has out-snapped Montgomery by a 59% to 39% margin. Overall, Montgomery (67) has more carries than Gibbs (52), but that doesn’t matter as much as it did earlier in the season. Gibbs is getting almost all of the passing down work, and he’s way more involved in the red zone. Over the last five weeks, Montgomery (8) and Gibbs (7) have split carries inside-the-10 right down the middle. These two offer RB1 upside in this spot as OC Ben Johnson will formulate his game plan around this duo. Denver is allowing a league-high 5.0 yards per carry and the most scrimmage yards per game (164.9) to opposing backfields.

Courtland Sutton – Despite only seeing four targets last week, Sutton still found a way to reel in a deep ball from Wilson for a 46 yard TD. He’s now scored 10 TDs in 12 games. Keep firing him up as a WR2. Since Week 7, the Lions are allowing the 8th-most schedule-adjusted FPG (+4.0) to opposing outside receivers.

FLEX Plays

Javonte Williams – He finally did it! After scoring just 2 receiving TDs all season, Williams scored his first TD on the ground of the season last week. As always, Williams’ volume remains strong. He’s seen at least 16 touches in six of his last 7 games. The Lions have faced the 6th-most goal-line carries, and that’s helped fuel the 12 non-scramble rushing TDs they’ve allowed this season. We’ll need Williams to get into the box again. The Lions are holding opposing ground games to 3.51 YPC (6th-fewest) and 80.2 yards per game (7th-fewest).

Sit ‘Em

Jared Goff – It was another rough one for Goff against the Bears last week. Five of his 10 INTs and nearly a quarter of his sacks absorbed this season have come against Chicago. The Lions are back at home with a 25.8-point implied team total, and that alone will always keep Goff on the back-end QB1 radar. The bad news is this is another rough spot. Since getting lit on fire in the opening month, the Broncos have held opposing quarterbacks to a very modest 231.2 yards per game and 6.8 YPA since Week 5. On the whole, they’re allowing just 12.4 FPG (2nd-fewest) to QBs, thanks to a stellar 7:9 TD-to-INT ratio in this stretch. Denver’s secondary is playing strong, and their front seven is also getting home. They’ve pressured opposing QBs on 39% of their dropbacks over their last nine outings, and that is the 7th-highest rate in this span. Stud C Frank Ragnow (knee) appears close to a return after missing last week, and that would be a nice boost for Goff if you’re rolling with him this week. T Taylor Decker returned to full practice on Thursday.

Denver’s D/ST looks like an awesome play in Weeks 16-17 (vs. Chargers and Patriots at home). Since Week 5, the Broncos have allowed just 17.7 points per game (5th-fewest) and they’ve forced 21 turnovers (2nd-most).

Jerry Jeudy – Well, we saw why the Broncos don’t throw the ball to Jeudy often last week. Jeudy led the team in targets (6) after HC Sean Payton called out Wilson for not throwing to him more, and he responded with 2/16 receiving. Lol. Jeudy had a brutal drop and an absolutely wild play where he swung his body out of bounds to not catch a deep shot from Wilson. He still has not finished higher than WR26 in Half-PPR leagues in 12 games.

Jameson Williams

Sleepers

Russell Wilson – The Lions are reeling in the secondary. Since Week 7, Detroit is allowing 8.5 YPA (most), a 13:3 TD-to-INT ratio, and a whopping 21.4 FPG to opposing quarterbacks. Their struggles against mobile passers continued last week, and they’re just behind the Saints and Packers (27.3) for the most rushing yards allowed per game to quarterbacks (26.1). Russell Wilson has not offered a high ceiling this season, but he’s a safe streamer at the very least.

Falcons at Panthers

Must Start

Bijan Robinson – This is a spot for Bijan to help win you a crucial matchup. Luckily, his role is peaking at the right time. Robinson’s snap rate has risen in three straight games (63% > 75% > 78%) out of Atlanta’s bye. The Panthers are hemorrhaging fantasy points to running backs, and have faced a league-high 34 goal-line carries (2.6 per game). That’s what has fueled their 22 (!!) TDs allowed to RBs. The Falcons are dealing with a slew of injuries along their offensive line, and that’s the lone concern for Robinson in this spot.

FLEX Plays

Chuba Hubbard – In two games under interim HC Chris Tabor, the Panthers have shoveled 25 and 23 carries to Hubbard. His 78% snap rate last week marked a season-high. This team has stopped trying to throw the ball, and I can’t say that I blame them. Over the last two weeks, Carolina’s pass rate has come in at -12% and -11% below expectation (based on down/distance and game script). Hubbard is in play as a volume-based RB2/FLEX. Atlanta still has not allowed a rushing TD to a running back all year.

Drake London – Please, can we get this guy a consistent QB? Against the Buccaneers, London exploded for 10/172 receiving (11 targets) in what was easily his best game of the year. With Desmond Ridder finally throwing down the field a bit more, London is a back-end WR3. Unlike last week, this is an awful matchup. Carolina has held opposing wideouts to -12.2 scheduled adjusted FPG since Week 8, and that’s only rivaled by the New York Jets (-17.9) in this span.

Sit ‘Em

Kyle Pitts – I’d like to take this opportunity to say that I got Kyle Pitts right for the first time all season last week. We liked the matchup, and Pitts delivered. Back pat over. This is an entirely opposite spot. The Panthers are holding TEs to -3.2 schedule-adjusted FPG below average (3rd-fewest), and Pitts was held to 2/44 receiving (3 targets) vs. Carolina Week 1. Slot receivers are being held to a league-low 48.2 yards per game against the Panthers, and that’s important here. Pitts runs 59% of his routes lined up in the slot. Just as a reminder, Pitts has scored fewer than 10 FP in 17-of-22 games over the last two combined seasons.

Adam Thielen and Jonathan Mingo – Since their bye week, Thielen’s season has fallen off a cliff. He’s averaging just 45.5 yards per game since Week 8. Thielen has been out-targeted by the rookie Jonathan Mingo in back-to-back games by a 19 to 13 margin as the Panthers continue to look toward the future. Over the last two weeks, Mingo has 38% of the first reads compared to 24% for Thielen under interim HC Chris Tabor. Atlanta is holding opposing wideouts to -5.3 schedule-adjusted FPG (4th-fewest), and they just shut down Mike Evans to one catch on 6 targets.

Desmond Ridder – Coming off a career-high 347 yards, Ridder showed the “F– it” mentality we saw from him (a little bit) in the middle of the season. Just chuck it up and let your playmakers go get it. Over his last three starts, Ridder’s average depth of throw has spiked to 9.7 yards downfield, and he’s attempted a deep pass on 15% of his throws. We’ll take it. In Weeks 1-8, Ridder’s aDOT was just 7.7 yards, and he threw deep on just 9.2% of his passes. You’re on your own if you want to play Ridder as a streamer in this spot, though. Since their bye in Week 8, the Panthers have held the Texans, Colts, Bears, Cowboys, Titans, Buccaneers, and the Saints to just 162.8 passing yards per game (fewest in span) and a league-low 5.5 YPA.

Bryce Young – In his last seven starts since the bye, Young has completed 54.8% of his passes for 5.2 YPA (175 yards per game), 3 TDs, 5 INTs, 3 fumbles, and he’s absorbed 32 sacks. Only the Jets (8.3%) are averaging fewer TDs per drive than the Panthers (11.3%).

Bears at Browns

Must Start

D.J. Moore – The unstoppable object meets the immovable force. In eight games with Fields at quarterback, Moore has hauled in 51-of-66 targets for 809 yards and 7 TDs. By fantasy points per game, Moore is the WR2 (19.5 Half-PPR) over CeeDee Lamb (18.1) in Fields’ starts. On the flip side, this is a brutal matchup – and Browns CB Denzel Ward may be back this week. The Browns and the Jets are giving up a league-low 5.9 receptions per game to opposing outside receivers. You’re not pulling Moore out of lineups, though.

Start ‘Em

Justin Fields – In his three starts since returning from a thumb injury, Fields has notched scoring weeks of QB8 (vs. Lions), QB17 (vs. Vikings), and QB2 (vs. Lions). The Browns remain a tough defense – and they could finally get CB Denzel Ward (shoulder) back this week – but they’re reeling from injuries elsewhere. DT Jordan Elliott, DE Ogbonnia Okoronkowo, and S Juan Thornhill are all questionable for Week 15. The Bears are starting to really lean on Fields. They’ve posted their two single highest figures in pass rate over expectation (+3.8% and +7.5%) in back-to-back games.

David Njoku – I was completely wrong about him last week. The Jaguars forgot to cover him twice as he went free for two 30-yard TDs. After a very slow start to his campaign, Njoku has come alive. Since Week 7, he’s tied with Jake Ferguson for TE7 in fantasy points per game (11.0). In this span, Njoku is second at the position in targets per game (8.8) behind only TJ Hockenson (9.9) while Trey McBride is third (8.4 T/G). Maddeningly, Njoku also leads the league in drops (9) since Week 7. We’ll take the TE1 volume and let the chips fall where they may.

Cole Kmet – As always, Kmet is a back-end TE1 option. In eight games with Fields under center, Kmet is the TE8 by fantasy points per contest (9.1), and his 18% target share ranks 8th-highest among TEs as well. It’s just really hard to have a consistently high ceiling with D.J. Moore getting a league-high 40.9% of the first-read targets (compared to 19.5% for Kmet).

FLEX Plays

Amari Cooper – No one can question his toughness. Despite missing practice with a concussion and playing through a rib injury two weeks ago, Cooper is coming off of a season-high 14 targets (7/77 lucky line receiving). This is an almost unbelievable, but very real stat – Joe Flacco has targeted Cooper a whopping 19 times (for a 32% share) when they’ve shared the field over the last two weeks. Last week, Cooper received 39% of the first reads and 51.2% of the team’s air yards. Whew. At the very least, Cooper is a volume-based WR2/3 option this week.

Jerome Ford – Remains in a committee with Kareem Hunt. Over the last two weeks, this duo has split carries right down the middle (22 to 21 – in favor of Hunt). However, Joe Flacco’s emergence has really helped Ford in the passing game. Ford has 38 routes to just 13 for Hunt in their last two games, and he’s turned his eight targets into 8/64/1 receiving. This uptick in usage gives Ford just a little more upside than usual. No team is giving up more receiving yards per game (57.5) to RBs than the Bears. That is by design. Chicago is keeping everything in front of them in the secondary and is forcing the 2nd-highest checkdown rate (13%) as a result.

Sit ‘Em

D’Onta Foreman – Coming back from a one-game absence (ankle), Foreman returned to lead the Bears in snaps (55%) and carries (11). The rookie Roschon Johnson (28% snaps) was mainly used on passing downs, and Khalil Herbert only took 3 carries. You need Foreman to score a TD for him to be useful in fantasy, and he’s always at risk of losing snaps (when the Bears trail).

Elijah Moore – As expected, Moore didn’t do much (3/42 receiving) with Amari Cooper available last week. He has two top-25 finishes among WRs across 13 games.

Darnell Mooney

Sleepers

Joe Flacco – He’s still elite. Accept it. The Browns are just letting Flacco chuck it, and he’s dropped back to pass 92 (!!) times over the last two weeks. He’s earned legitimate merit as a streamer with QB13 (vs. Rams) and QB6 (vs. Jaguars) scoring weeks, but this is objectively Flacco’s toughest spot. Over the last eight games – since stud CB Jaylon Johnson returned – Chicago is allowing just 207.6 passing yards per game (6th-fewest) and a stifling 5.7 YPA (2nd-fewest). They’ve given up an 11:12 TD-to-INT ratio in this stretch. It’s close, but I prefer Russell Wilson and Jake Browning this week.

Buccaneers at Packers

Must Start

Rachaad White – He’s finished as a top-20 scorer among RBs in nine of his last 10 games. White’s scorching hot run should continue here as the Packers are allowing the 8th-most scrimmage yards (133.9 per game) and the 7th-highest YPC (4.30). White is now the RB4 by total fantasy points scored.

Start ‘Em

Mike Evans – After a season of consistent production, Evans fell back down to earth in a tough matchup against Falcons stud CB AJ Terrell. Evans was held to one catch on 6 targets in easily his worst game of the season. He entered the week with top-25 finishes among WRs in 9-of-11 full games. The Bucs won, but Baker Mayfield was not good in Week 14 to compound matters. This is a nice bounceback spot for Evans here. The Packers play the 3rd-most single high safety coverage (62.8%), and Evans owns a 27.4% target share (WR13) and 3.20 yards per route run (WR7) vs. 1-high safety looks. Against two-high safety coverages, Evans’ target share dips to 23.7%, and he averages 2.29 YPRR. Packers CB Jaire Alexander (shoulder) has missed four straight games.

Jordan Love – Without Christian Watson (hamstring) available to stretch the field vertically, Love really struggled last week. His average depth of throw sunk to a season-low 6.6 yards vs. the Giants. Unless Watson can return this week, the Packers have very little vertical presence in their offense. Seam stretcher TE Luke Musgrave (kidney – I.R.) is out for one more week. It’s extremely unfortunate because this is an awesome spot, and that keeps Love in the back-end QB1 conversation. Over their last nine games, Tampa Bay has allowed 8.3 YPA (most), 300.6 passing yards per game (most), and 21.9 fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks. The Bucs are dealing with a ton of injuries defensively.

Jayden Reed – In four games without Watson (Weeks 1-3 and 14), Reed leads the Packers in targets (29) over Doubs (26). Unfortunately, Reed’s average depth of target was a pathetic 1.5 yards last week. Reed is awesome with the ball in space, and he has gashed defenses for 119 rushing yards on just 11 carries (2 TDs) this season. Jayden Reed is the Lite version (heavy emphasis on lite) of Deebo Samuel. Green Bay will continue to find ways to get Reed the rock. The Buccaneers are giving up the 2nd-most yards per game to opposing slot receivers (97.7). Reed lined up in the slot on 61% of his routes last week.

Sit ‘Em

Chris Godwin – Dealing with a knee injury. He’s a game-time decision. He has not finished better than WR36 in fantasy since Week 8.

Romeo Doubs – TD-or-bust play. He has six end zone targets (3 TDs) without Watson. Dontayvion Wicks (ankle) is questionable.

A.J. Dillon – In his three-game stretch as the “starter” without Aaron Jones (knee), Dillon has scored 9.6, 9.2, and 8.8 FP (Half-PPR). At least he’s consistent. If Aaron Jones can return this week, I’d imagine he’ll be limited to 8-12 touches in a part-time role. Dillon has to score a TD to have any chance at a decent day for fantasy. Dillon is nursing a broken thumb, and he’s questionable.

Baker Mayfield – There are higher ceiling streamers out there. Over the last two weeks, Mayfield has really struggled in two tougher matchups (vs. Panthers and Falcons) to the tune of a 48% completion rate and 5.9 YPA. His accuracy has been completely scattershot as our Data collection team has charted Mayfield as off-target on a whopping 31% of his throws over the last two weeks. This matchup isn’t easy, either. The Packers are tied with the Vikings in passing fantasy points allowed per dropback (0.33 | 6th-fewest).

Cade Otton – Since he randomly went for 6/70/2 vs. Texans, Otton has 12/120/1 receiving over his last five games. Otton ranks 34th-of-40 TEs in yards per route run (0.92).

Sleepers

Tucker Kraft – If you’re absolutely desperate, Kraft is vaguely in play. We’re just chasing this matchup. The Bucs are allowing the 6th-most yards per game to tight ends (59.7). With Luke Musgrave (kidney – I.R.) out, Kraft has run a route on 73% of the pass plays. That ranks 9th-highest among TEs. At least he’s out there.

Texans at Titans

Must Start

Derrick Henry – Over the last three seasons, Henry averages 22.5 Half-PPR points per game in wins but that dips to 13.7 FPG in losses. Those splits are even wider this season. Henry has 17 or more carries in all five of the Titans wins, and he’s averaging 20.8 attempts per game in those victories. The Titans are -3.5. Stud DL Texans Will Anderson is out.

Start ‘Em

DeAndre Hopkins – Since Will Levis took over in Week 6, Hopkins has seen 32.5% of the first read targets and 45% of the air yards. Nuk’s average depth of target has spiked to 16.0 yards. The Texans play the 6th-most two-high safety coverage (53%), and Hopkins is averaging a strong 3.61 yards per route run against those looks. Against one high safety coverage, Nuk is averaging 1.99 YPRR.

Sit ‘Em

Devin Singletary – Was back in front of this backfield with 57% of the snaps last week with 13/65/1 rushing. Dameon Pierce had just four carries. Singletary is a low end RB3/FLEX option. The Texans have the 5th-lowest implied total (16.8).

Case Keenum

Dalton Schultz – Off of the injury report. The Titans are allowing the 7th-fewest yards per game (40.8) to tight ends.

Robert Woods, Noah Brown, Xavier Hutchinson, and John Metchie – Brutal. Nico Collins (calf) hasn’t practiced all week. Woods led the team in routes last week (25) over Brown (24), Hutchinson (22), and Metchie (15). Brown is still less than 100% after dealing with a midseason knee injury.

Chig Okonkwo

Sleepers

Will Levis – The Texans are struggling in the secondary. Since Week 5, they’ve allowed 8.2 YPA, 288.2 yards per game, and 19.2 FPG to opposing QBs.

Giants at Saints

Must Start

Alvin Kamara – Ultimately, you’re not moving off of Kamara as an RB1. We noted earlier in the season that Kamara has wide splits in his passing usage based on game script, and that showed up again last week. In the Saints' four wins, he’s averaging just 4.5 targets per game. That spikes to 8.7 T/G in six losses. The Saints are favored -6. The Giants are allowing the 3rd-most rushing yards per game (114.1).

Saquon Barkley – You’re rolling him out as a volume-based RB1 and letting the chips fall where they may. After leaning a little bit pass-heavy in their two previous games, the Giants came out of their bye and ran the ball at a +6.5% clip (5th-highest) above expected against the Packers. It’d make sense to roll out a similar game plan here. The Saints are no longer a tough run defense. They’ve allowed 165/812/4 rushing (4.92 YPC) to the Colts, Bears, Vikings, Falcons, Lions, and Panthers over their last six games.

Start ‘Em

Chris Olave – Dealing with an ankle injury (didn’t practice all week). If he’s alright, Olave is a borderline Must Start. The Giants are blitzing opposing quarterbacks on 41% of their dropbacks and only the Vikings (44%) rank higher. When Derek Carr is blitzed, Olave is seeing 29% of the targets with 2.21 yards per route run (vs. 23% of the targets for 2.09 YPRR when Carr is not blitzed). Olave has great upside here. He’s seen eight or more targets in 10-of-13 games. Rashid Shaheed (thigh) returned to a limited practice on Wednesday after he’s missed the last two weeks.

Taysom Hill – Over his last seven games, Hill has rushed for 47/226/4 and he’s added 22/213/1 receiving (on 27 targets). Oh, and he has a passing TD. In this span, Taysom Hill is fantasy football’s TE3 with 12.8 FPG just behind Travis Kelce (13.1) and TJ Hockenson (13.0). He returned to a limited practice on Wednesday after missing Week 14 with foot/hand injuries. Only the Panthers (21) have allowed more rushing TDs than the Giants (19).

Darren Waller – He was activated off of I.R. on Thursday. Before going down with his latest hamstring strain, Waller was the TE5 by fantasy points per game (8.8). He was tied with Sam LaPorta for TE4 in targets per game (8.2) in Weeks 1-7. Even in a potentially limited role — we’ll take our chances on Waller with a decent chance at a TD as a back-end TE1 play.

Sit ‘Em

Wan’Dale Robinson – Leads the team in targets (24) over Barkley (20), Darius Slayton (19), and Jalin Hyatt (15) with Tommy DeVito under center. He’s turned those looks into 19/181/1 receiving. Hyatt set a season-high in route share (85%) out of the Giants bye week, but he only earned 3 targets. Waller’s return will thin out the already low volume this Giants WR corps gets.

Derek Carr – He has not finished higher than QB10 in any game this season. In two starts where he’s tried to play through injuries (Week 4 and 14), Carr averaged a pitiful 3.9 YPA (!!). Brutal.

Tommy DeVito – In four starts, DeVito is completing 67% of his throws for 6.9 YPA with a 7:1 TD-to-INT ratio. He’s also added 125 rushing yards on 23 carries. The downside is that he’s taken 20 sacks. The Saints are forcing the 6th-lowest pressure rate (31%), which I suppose is good news behind this horrific offensive line. The Giants are allowing an unreal 12.3% pressure rate over expectation. That’s by far the highest rate in the league. The Jets are 31st (4.9%).

Sleepers

Rashid Shaheed

Jets at Dolphins

Must Start

Tyreek Hill

Start ‘Em

Jaylen Waddle – The Jets predominantly play Cover-4 and Cover-6 zone coverage (43% of passing snaps). Against those coverages, Waddle has turned his 29 targets into 22/271/1 receiving (3.52 YPRR). That’s actually better than Tyreek Hill (17/205 receiving on 23 targets | 2.41 YPRR). When these two teams met three weeks ago, the Jets played Cover-4 or Cover-6 on 45% of the Dolphins pass plays. Waddle went for 8/114 receiving.

Raheem Mostert and De’Von Achane – In the five games that Achane has been available to share the backfield, Mostert has finished as fantasy’s RB2, RB37, RB10, RB16, and RB4 by weekly scoring. This backfield just produces no matter what. Achane has casually notched RB1, RB4, RB4, RB4, and RB26 scoring weeks. HC Mike McDaniel has used this duo nearly interchangeably, with Mostert handling 52% of the snaps and Achane at 51% in their five full games together. Achane’s role in the passing game gives him the higher ceiling in totality, and he has 13 targets (8/54 receiving) in his last two games. Achane has a toe injury, and he only practiced once all week. This injury means his floor is lowered, but at worst, Achane deserves upside RB2 valuation even if he’s “limited” to 10-14 touches. Mostert = Must Start.

Breece Hall – His Week 5 performance vs. Denver (22/177/1 rushing) feels like it was forever ago. Hall has 93/238/1 rushing (2.56 YPC) since then. At the very least, we’re getting insane usage on passing downs, and last week’s performance was his best game in that department. Hall is averaging 5.5 receptions (on 6.6 targets) per game over his last eight contests.

Garrett Wilson – At the very least, Zach Wilson knows to funnel targets to his guy. The Wilson-Wilson connection picked back up with 9-of-14 for 108 yards against the Texans. In 11 starts, Garrett Wilson is averaging 6 receptions and 66 yards per game (on 10.7 targets) with Zach Wilson under center. Touchdowns continue to be hard to come by, though. Garrett Wilson has just 2 TDs with Zach, and they both came back in Weeks 1-2. Wilson is a volume-based WR2.

Sit ‘Em

Tua Tagovailoa – Unfortunately, Tua is going to be working behind a battered offensive line just in time for a brutal matchup. The Jets are allowing just 5.97 YPA (2nd-fewest), and they’re forcing a 40.2% pressure rate (3rd-highest). This is just brutal. The Dolphins just lost C Connor Williams (ACL) for the season. His replacement Liam Eichenberg (calf) did not practice on Wednesday – in addition to T Terron Armstead (ankle). G Robert Hunt (hamstring) is out again.

Zach Wilson – Coming off a career-best game (302 yards, 2 TDs on 36 attempts) against the backdrop of all of the criticism. For fantasy, we just need him to keep feeding Garrett Wilson.

Tyler Conklin

Chiefs at Patriots

Must Start

Travis Kelce – Despite it all, Kelce has finished as a top-8 TE in 9-of-12 games. He’s averaging a very Kelce-like 5.8 receptions and 74.8 yards per game since the bye in Week 10.

Start ‘Em

Patrick Mahomes – He was tilting hard last week. One of us… One of us… Bad sportsmanship aside, Mahomes has been a disappointment for fantasy. Over his last six outings, he has scored as fantasy’s QB29, QB11, QB15, QB9, QB16, and QB19 by weekly output. For as bad as things are – relative to his insanely lofty standards – Mahomes is still a back-end QB1 thanks to the buzzsaw of injuries at the position. I’d start Hurts, Allen, Jackson, Prescott, Purdy, Fields, Stafford, and Stroud (if he plays) over Mahomes.

Ezekiel Elliott – Until Rhamondre Stevenson (ankle) returns, Zeke is locked into lineups as a volume-based RB1. Last week, only Kyren Williams (92%) played on a higher snap rate than Elliott (91%). Zeke turned back the clock with 22/68 rushing and 7/72/1 receiving against the Steelers, and this is another good spot. The Patriots are massive underdogs (+9.5), but the Chiefs continue to struggle against the run. Kansas City is allowing 4.43 YPC (5th-most) and a 51.4% success rate (2nd-highest).

Rashee Rice – His route share (involvement on pass plays) has risen in five straight games (47% > 52% > 63% > 67% > 82%). Outside of two drops, Rice and Mahomes’ connection has been near perfect over the last five weeks (29-of-36 for 302 yards and 3 TDs). Incredibly, Rice has seen just a few more first read targets (26.1% share) over Travis Kelce (23.5%) in this span. He has emerged as one of the best WR2/FLEX options right in time for the stretch run.

FLEX Plays

Demario Douglas – In his last five games, Douglas led the Patriots in targets (37) and he turned those looks into 26/267/0 receiving. He’s missed the last two games with a concussion but should return for Week 14. The underlying metrics for Douglas are promising from a target earning perspective. He earned 28% of the first read targets in Weeks 7-12, but unfortunately, those looks came attached to a lowly 6.0-yard average depth of target. Douglas is in play as a back-end WR3/FLEX option in PPR leagues.

Chiefs backfield

While he did not play on Sunday, it seems like the Chiefs received good news about Isiah Pacheco’s injured shoulder this weekend. According to NFL’s Ian Rapoport, Pacheco will not go on I.R. and he will return sooner than expected. Pacheco has a history of shoulder issues and he needed surgery this offseason.

In his place, the Chiefs divided up work between Clyde Edwards-Helaire (68 scrimmage yards on 13 touches and Jerick McKinnon (37 total yards on 7 touches and a TD). They split snaps nearly right down the middle – 48% to 45%, in favor of CEH.

Sit ‘Em

Hunter Henry – As always, Henry remains a TD-or-bust option. Across his last eight games, Henry has tallied just 18/177/3 receiving (on 29 targets).

Bailey Zappe – Fire up Chiefs D/ST.

JuJu Smith-Schuster – He’ll revert to being a part-time player with Douglas back in the lineup. In Weeks 7-12, JuJu ran a route on just 46% of the Patriots pass plays.

49ers at Cardinals (4:05pm ET)

Must Start

Christian McCaffrey – He’s lapping the field in fantasy (again). McCaffrey is averaging nearly 4 more PPR points per game than RB2 Kyren Williams. CMC has cruised to 130 or more scrimmage yards in four of his last 5 games, and Arizona is allowing the 2nd-most scrimmage yards per game to RBs (149.9).

Deebo Samuel – These are Deebo’s weekly finishes in his last 8 games not shortened by injury: WR14 > WR7 > WR25 > WR15 > WR35 > WR8 > WR2 > WR1.

Brock Purdy – Dating back to last year, Purdy has finished as a top-15 scoring QB in 14-of-18 starts (78%). He’s just crushing, and he’s ripped off top-10 weekly scores in five of his last 6 starts. Purdy is averaging an unreal 314.2 passing yards per game with a 14:4 TD-to-INT ratio (73% completion rate, 11.4 YPA) since Week 8. Not bad, I guess. The Cardinals are getting cooked to the tune of 0.44 passing fantasy points per dropback, and only the Commanders (0.51) are worse.

Trey McBride – In four games with Kyler Murray under center, McBride leads the team in targets (26.2% share), and he’s turned his 34 looks into a near-perfect 28/323/1 receiving. He’s scored as fantasy’s TE1, TE3, TE15, TE7, and TE2 in his last five outings not started by Clayton Tune. This is a tough matchup, but McBride is talented enough – and getting enough volume – to overcome it. McBride’s 8.5 targets per game would tie Travis Kelce for 2nd-most over the full season, and trails only TJ Hockenson (9.0). Only Kelce (2.49) and Kittle (2.46) are averaging more yards per route run than McBride (2.32). Backup and inline TE Geoff Swaim (back) is questionable.

Start ‘Em

Brandon Aiyuk – Aiyuk remains a fantastic WR2 in his own right, but he lacks the TD upside that Deebo possesses. He’s finished as a top-36 scoring WR – basically, a FLEX play or better – in 11-of-12 games this season. Only the Commanders are allowing more receiving yards per game (140.9) to opposing outside receivers than the Cardinals (137.7).

George Kittle

Sit ‘Em

James Conner – Coming off the bye and a season-best 25/105/2 rushing (vs. Steelers) in Week 12, Conner is a low-floor RB2/FLEX option in this matchup against the 49ers. This front seven is just erasing running backs. Over their last five games, the 49ers have allowed 3.32 YPC (5th-fewest) and just 53.8 rushing yards per contest (2nd-fewest). A major problem is that Conner’s passing-down usage has completely dried up since Kyler Murray returned. Conner has six receptions for 6 yards (on 10 targets) in his last four outings.

Kyler Murray – This is a rough spot here. The 49ers have played really strong defense since their bye week. Over their last five games, they’ve allowed just 4.22 ANY/A (3rd-fewest) and they lead the league in sacks (22) in this span. Their front seven is just dominating, and they’re forcing the 2nd-highest pressure rate (43%) since acquiring DE Chase Young. In four starts before the bye, Murray finished as fantasy’s QB13, QB6, QB10, and QB19 by weekly scoring. His legs always give him some upside for our game.

Marquise Brown – Still tending to a heel injury out of the bye week. He did not practice on Wednesday. Brown and Murray’s connection was off in their four games together, as Kyler delivered a catchable pass on just 63.6% of Hollywood’s targets. As a result, this duo connected on just 9-of-22 targets for a pitiful 134 yards. McBride has 30.1% of the first reads compared to 20.4% for Brown.

Michael Wilson – Should return after missing the last three games with a shoulder injury. That means that Greg Dortch will get bumped back down as a part-timer. Slot man Rondale Moore has 3 receptions in his last three games.

Commanders at Rams (4:05pm ET)

Must Start

Kyren Williams – Over the last two weeks, he’s played on 93.3% of the Rams snaps. Williams trails only CMC (22.1 Half-PPR) in fantasy points per game (19.1) among running backs.

Matthew Stafford – He’s absolutely cooking right now. Stafford played one of his best games as a Ram last week, as he diced the previously impenetrable Ravens for 294 yards (on 41 attempts) and 3 TDs. Just for reference, the Ravens' previous season highs in passing yardage allowed were to Jared Goff (284 yards on 53 attempts) and CJ Stroud (242 yards on 42 attempts). Over his last three outings, Stafford has ripped the Cardinals, Browns, and Ravens for 802 yards and 10 TDs en route to QB6, QB8, and QB5 scoring weeks. Now, he faces a Washington secondary that’s allowing a league-high 8.06 YPA and 0.51 passing fantasy points per dropback. The Commanders have allowed a top-12 scoring performance (among QBs) in 11-of-13 games.

Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua – After firing DC Jack Del Rio prior to Week 12, the Commanders completely abandoned their man coverage scheme against Miami. Prior to facing the Dolphins, the Commanders were dialing up man-to-man looks on 41% of their opponents' pass plays in their four previous games. They switched to a season-high 96% (!!) zone coverage rate in Week 12 without Del Rio.

Against zone coverage schemes, Nacua leads the Rams by a slim margin in targets (23.5% share), air yards (34%), and fantasy points scored per route run (0.42) over Kupp (20.6% TS | 29% AY | 0.41 FP/RR).

Nacua has seen more of the designed targets (like screens) against zone coverages, with 21.9% of those looks compared to just 7.1% for Kupp. Both of the Rams WRs profile like WR1 options.

Start ‘Em

Sam Howell – It certainly isn’t always pretty at times, but Howell has finished as a top-12 scoring option at QB in nine of his last 10 games. Washington ranks 3rd in pass rate over expectation (+7.3%), and Howell leads all quarterbacks in attempts per game (39.2).

FLEX Plays

Curtis Samuel – In the eight games where he’s run a route on more than 55% of the pass plays, Samuel is averaging 6.3 targets, 4.8 receptions, 49.5 receiving yards, and 9.7 fantasy points (Half-PPR) on a per-game basis. He’s out-scoring Terry McLaurin (8.5 FPG), and averaging more yards per route run (1.82 to 1.53) in his starts. The Rams are allowing the 6th-most yards per game to slot receivers (90.3).

Terry McLaurin – It was a tougher matchup against a healthy Dolphins secondary, but McLaurin was still a shocking goose egg (0/0 on 3 targets) in Week 12. Even in the best offensive setup of his career with a competent quarterback and extremely high volume, McLaurin is averaging a career-low 53.4 yards per game. He’s cleared 70 yards receiving just four times across 12 games, and he has scored just 2 TDs. Hopefully, Washington took their bye week to try and re-install McLaurin back in the offense.

Antonio Gibson – Unfortunately, Brian Robinson (hamstring) is not practicing out of the Commanders bye week. Robinson is out. Gibson will lead this backfield, while rookie Chris Rodriguez could mix in for 6-8 carries. After Robinson’s injury, Gibson handled a season-high 10 carries and added 4/37 receiving in Week 12 vs. Miami.

Sit ‘Em

Logan Thomas – After recording four or more receptions in 7-of-8 games, Thomas fell out of the Commanders offense with just 2/15 receiving on five targets in Weeks 11-12. This matchup is the only thing keeping him remotely on the radar. The Rams are allowing a league-high 8.6 yards per target to tight ends, and the 3rd-most yards per game (62.2).

Jahan Dotson

Tyler Higbee – Returned to a limited practice on Wednesday after missing Week 14 with a neck injury.

Cowboys at Bills (4:25pm ET)

Must Start

Josh Allen – Has finished as a top-8 fantasy QB in 10-of-13 games.

Dak Prescott and CeeDee Lamb – This duo is unstoppable, and Dak is delivering dot after dot. Since they were embarrassed by the 49ers in Week 5, Prescott has responded with MVP-level play. Dak has a stellar 23:2 TD-to-INT ratio, he is averaging 305.5 passing yards per game, and 8.4 YPA across his last eight starts. For fantasy, Prescott has finished as a top-5 scoring QB in six of his last 8 outings. CeeDee Lamb has absolutely erupted alongside Dak, and this duo has connected on 69-of-96 targets for 895 yards (111.9 per game) and 7 TDs in their last eight games. Buffalo has held strong through a slew of injuries, but they just lost two more starters in S Micah Hyde (neck) and DL AJ Epenesa (ribs) last week.

Tony Pollard – Over the last four weeks, Pollard has rushed for 61/267/3 and added 20 receptions for 95 yards (23 targets). That’s a huge win compared to where things stood back in Week 10. Pollard is going to backdoor his way into a top-10 finish at running back.

Start ‘Em

Stefon Diggs – Received his usual 12 targets (43.5% first read share) last week, but struggled in one of his worst outings with two costly drops. Diggs has been held in check with 3/34 receiving (vs. Broncos), 4/27 (vs. Jets), and 4/24 (vs. Chiefs) in three of his last 4 games. Those are arguably the three toughest matchups for opposing receivers.

I have a ton of respect for the Cowboys' defense, but this unit has allowed solid production to receivers as of late. Over their last four games, Dallas gave up 8/74 receiving to the ghost of Adam Thielen, Curtis Samuel went for 9/100 against them, the Cowboys were shredded for 6/143/3 by DK Metcalf, and they just allowed 9/94 to AJ Brown and 5/73 to DeVonta Smith.

James Cook – The Bills offense has changed in one key way under new OC Joe Brady, and they are clearly getting James Cook more involved in the passing game. Over the last three weeks, Cook has 14 receptions for 169 yards and 2 TDs (on 16 targets) after he just ripped the Chiefs for 141 total scrimmage yards. And frankly, his recent receiving numbers would look even more gaudy if he didn’t drop a walk-in TD on a wheel route against Philadelphia two weeks ago. Excitingly, Cook has also emerged as the Bills top option in the red-zone. He’s out-snapped Latavius Murray by a 7 to 2 margin in their last three games. Cook is quickly approaching low-end RB1 territory.

Jake Ferguson – The Bills play the 3rd-most two high safety coverage (60%). Ferguson has shown wide splits based on safety alignment this season. He’s averaging a strong 19% target share and 2.03 yards per route run against 2-high safety coverages, but that dips to a lowly 12% TS and just 1.10 YPRR against single high safety looks. After a two-game lull, Ferguson has eight targets in back-to-back games (11/149/1 receiving).

Dalton Kincaid – As expected, Dawson Knox’s return from I.R. did affect Kincaid a little bit. He ran a route on 69% of the pass plays in Week 14, and that’s down slightly from 76% in Weeks 8-12. Ultimately, Kincaid is downgraded just slightly with Dawson Knox back. He still earned eight targets last week.

Sit ‘Em

Gabe Davis – Only the Patriots are playing more man coverage (40.5%) than the Cowboys (40.1%). Against man-to-man, Gabe Davis is averaging a pitiful 1.06 yards per route run. Davis is at least a little more respectable against zone coverages with 1.61 YPRR.

Brandin Cooks – He’s seen more than five targets in just 2-of-12 games this season. Just like Gabe Davis… Cooks is a TD-or-bust bet in fantasy.

Ravens at Jaguars (SNF)

Must Start

Lamar Jackson – He’s catching this matchup at the right time. The Jaguars pass defense has come unglued since their bye. Over the last five weeks, Jacksonville is allowing 285.8 yards per game (2nd-most) and a near perfect 11:1 TD-to-INT ratio. They’re allowing 22.9 FPG (3rd-most) to passers in this stretch.

Evan Engram – As expected, Engram got the biggest boost in the absence of Christian Kirk (groin – I.R.). He was targeted 12 times last week and came through for his best game of the year with 11/95/2 receiving. This is after he shredded the Bengals for 9/82/1 the week prior. I’m treating Engram as a locked-in TE1 for the rest of the way. His connection with Lawrence is the best part of their passing attack right now, and the Ravens have been cracked for 33/331/3 receiving (on 45 targets) by TEs over their last six games. There are four TEs I’d play over him – Kelce, Hockenson, LaPorta, and Kittle.

Start ‘Em

Travis Etienne – Once again, the Jaguars run game struggled last week. This has been a problem all year, and it’s somehow gotten even worse as of late. Etienne has rushed for 68/223/2 (3.28 YPC) over his last five games. After ripping off six top-10 finishes in his first 8 games, Etienne has RB38, RB29, RB19, RB12, and RB15 scoring weeks since then. If we’re looking for good news, Etienne did play on 78% of the snaps last week – his highest mark since Week 8. And, the Jaguars have done a good job at keeping him active in the passing game with at least four receptions in 3 straight games. He’s a low-end RB1.

Isaiah Likely – Dial him right back up. At absolute worst, Likely is TE9 on the slate. The Jaguars are giving up the 10th-most yards per game (54.8) to tight ends. Promisingly, he set a season high in route share (85%) in Week 14.

Trevor Lawrence – Playing through a high ankle injury, Lawrence predictably struggled up against the Browns (28-of-50, 257 yards, 3 TD, 3 INTs, and 3 sacks). He’s off of the injury report heading into Week 14. The thing is, Lawrence is hot for fantasy — he’s finished as a top-12 scoring option in four straight games.

Unfortunately, this is not a spot to expect a big game. Matthew Stafford was basically the first QB to crack the Ravens last week, as they previously had allowed just one top-12 QB finish to Josh Dobbs (and he did so with 27 yards and 1 TD rushing). The Ravens are still allowing a league low 0.26 passing FP per dropback after Stafford’s great game last week. LT Cam Robinson (knee – IR) is out, and his replacement Walker Little (hamstring) is questionable. Jacksonville allowed a season high 41% pressure rate in Week 14 vs. Cleveland. Lawrence is a low-end QB1 option this week.

FLEX Plays

Zay Flowers and Odell Beckham – Over their last six games together, Flowers (33) has just one fewer target than OBJ (32). In this span, Beckham is more efficient by yards per route run (3.09 to 1.17), and he’s averaging more expected fantasy points per game (11.9 to 10.2) than Flowers. In their last three games since Mark Andews was lost for the season, Flowers leads the team in first read targets (32% share) by a whisker over OBJ (30%). I’m treating both of these Ravens WRs as upside WR2/FLEX options here. Beckham is not a full-time player, and that’s why his floor is a bit lower than Flowers. OBJ ran a route on 59% of the pass plays last week. Flowers (98% route share in Week 14) doesn’t leave the field. Jacksonville is giving up the 5th-most yards per game (132.1) to outside receivers.

Calvin Ridley – The Jaguars had to abandon their ineffective run game last week, and that led to Trevor Lawrence to drop back 53 times on a gimpy ankle. That’s less than ideal. As a result, Ridley saw a season high 13 “targets” come his way. The problem is that Lawrence really struggled to hit his receivers not named Engram. Just five of those 13 targets were catchable according to our charting team. Yikes. Promisingly, the Jaguars wisely moved Ridley into the slot on a season high 28% of his routes last week. Hopefully that continues. The Ravens are allowing the 7th-fewest yards per game to outside receivers (90.8).

Sit ‘Em

Keaton Mitchell and Gus Edwards – Well, this backfield has devolved into a nightmare. Justice Hill led the Ravens in snaps last week (42%) over Mitchell (33%) and Edwards (28%). Lol. Hill only plays as Lamar’s personal protector, though. This just highlights how insanely compartmentalized this backfield has become. Mitchell continues to look explosive, but he’s stuck with 10, 4, 9, 11, and 10 touches in his last five games. Edwards has no floor, and he has to score to be usable in fantasy. Jacksonville is containing run games to 77.2 yards per contest (3rd-fewest).

Sleepers

Zay Jones – In the absence of Kirk, Zay Jones led the Jags’ in first reads (31% share) over Engram (29%) and Ridley (29%). This passing target tree is more condensed now, and that alone puts Jones on the WR3/FLEX radar. He ran a route on a season high 91% of the pass plays last week.

Eagles at Seahawks (MNF)

Must Start

Jalen Hurts – Everything worked against the Eagles last week, and Hurts bottomed out for his worst game of the season. Two fluky fumbles by Hurts and AJ Brown killed any chance that the Eagles had at keeping the game close. Seattle was playing strong in the secondary… until as of late. Over their last five games, the Seahawks have allowed 275.6 passing yards per game (5th-most) and a 10:3 TD-to-INT ratio.

AJ Brown – The Seahawks predominantly play Cover-3, Cover-4, and Cover-6 zone (79.7% of opponents dropbacks). Against those coverages, Brown is dominating targets (28.2% share) and air yards (54.3%) over DeVonta Smith (20% TS | 29% AY) and Dallas Goedert (17.4% TS | 10% AY).

In 10 games with Goedert active, Brown is averaging a stellar 3.39 yards per route run against C-3, C-4, and C-6 zone coverages.

D.K. Metcalf – Thankfully, Metcalf ripped the 49ers on their opening drive for 2/52/1 receiving. He looked like he was on his way to a big day, but he failed to bring in his next 3 targets, and then was ejected in the 4th quarter for fighting. This is an unbelievable matchup. The Eagles are getting slammed for a league high 24.8 FPG to opposing outside receivers.

Start ‘Em

DeVonta Smith

Dallas Goedert – After missing three games, Goedert returned to his usual role (86% route share) last week.

FLEX Plays

D’Andre Swift – After getting blown out in their last two games, this is a spot for Swift to get going again. Much like their pass defense, Seattle’s run stopping has, well, stopped working. Over their last five games, the Seahawks have given up 4.91 YPC (5th-most) and the 4th-most fantasy points per game (26.7). It’s definitely a concern that Ken Gainwell has mixed in much more on passing downs as of late, though. Gainwell has run 54 routes (8 targets) to Swift’s 38 routes (5 targets). Swift is a low floor RB2/FLEX, but his ceiling is 18-22 FP in this spot.

Tyler Lockett and Jaxon Smith-Njigba

Sit ‘Em

Ken Walker and Zach Charbonnet – As expected, this backfield has devolved into a split with both runners healthy. Walker played on 56% of the snaps (8 carries, 5 targets) and Charbonnet mixed in for 42% of the snaps (9 carries, one target). Ideally, you can avoid this backfield. Philadelphia is giving up just 78.3 yards per game on the ground (4th-fewest).

Sleepers

Geno Smith – He returned to a limited practice on Thursday after missing Week 14 with a groin injury. If he’s able to suit up, this matchup puts Smith on the streaming radar. The Eagles have been crushed for 26.5 (!!) fantasy points per game by QBs over the last five weeks.

Best and Worst Games

Rankings derived from my Pace/Plays/Passing game model.