2022 Combine Biggest Winners & Losers

How much does athleticism matter for fantasy football? How important is a player’s height, weight, and BMI? Is it better for a WR to run a fast 40-yard-dash or jump high in the vert? To what degree should a great or terrible Combine performance factor into our evaluation of a rookie prospect?

Last season, I asked and then answered all of these questions in article form: How Important Is Athleticism?

That article was somewhere around 2,500 words long, but in short, athleticism is pretty overrated from a fantasy perspective. But, it’s also far from irrelevant. It’s a piece of the puzzle; athleticism alone can get you drafted, but it’s probably not enough on its own to bring you to fantasy relevance.

The far majority of RBs, WRs, and TEs who posted a great production score in college and a great athleticism score at the Combine were great players for fantasy. Players with poor scores by both production and athleticism almost never did anything meaningful for fantasy teams. Players with one or the other (with production mattering more than athleticism) were somewhere in between.

I concluded the article saying basically this. But also that my new stat – SPORQ score – is the absolute best tool you could ever use to measure athleticism. You can find that stat and our historical Combine database here.

In today’s article we’ll be utilizing this unique new stat to help us identify the biggest fantasy winners and losers from the 2022 NFL Combine.

So, without further ado…

Running Backs

The full list (all Combine RBs since 2000) can be found here.

Winners

1. Breece Hall, Iowa State, 94.9 SPORQ

5-11, 217 lbs, Age: 20.8

Mock Draft Consensus: RB1

Hall posted elite marks in nearly every event. Since 2000, his numbers in the 40-yard-dash (94th), Speed Score (95th), vertical jump (96th), and broad jump (92nd) all rank in the top-10%.

Over the last five NFL Combines, only four running backs earned a better SPORQ score – Saquon Barkley (99.5), A.J. Dillon (98.1), Christian McCaffrey (97.8), and Jonathan Taylor (96.4).

Ladies and gentlemen, I am vindicated.

Hall ranked as (far-and-away) the top RB in the class per my Production Model, and fairly elite overall. Seemingly, I was in the minority with that stance, but not any longer.

Hall’s elite Combine showing only further entrenches him as the top RB in the class in my mind, though, unfortunately, that’s now a unanimous opinion. And, while he won’t come cheap, he is certainly deserving of the lofty price you’ll have to spend (likely the 1.01 pick).

I’ll save all additional analysis for a follow-up article, but you can read Wes Huber’s article on Hall now. (Spoilers: Huber is in complete agreement with me.)

2. Zamir White, Georgia, 92.6 SPORQ

6-0, 214 lbs, Age: 22.5

Mock Draft Consensus: RB8

Hall ranks 5th in SPORQ score over the last five Combines, but Zamir White ranks 7th (92.6), sandwiched in between Antonio Gibson (93.7) and Nick Chubb (90.4). Running a 4.40 40-yard-dash at 214 lbs gives him a 114.2 Speed Score, which ranks in the 92nd percentile (51st-best of 622 qualifiers). And his broad jump of 128” ranks 22nd-best of 521 qualifiers (96th percentile). White was below average in the vertical jump, but my model says that’s a wholly irrelevant event for RBs, while Speed Score and the broad jump rank as the two most-important athletic variables for a RB of White’s size.

My Production Model didn’t love White, but I think he’s interesting, as a former 5-star recruit and a former 1.01 Devy pick. Still, I understand my model’s indifference. White never eclipsed 5.0 receiving YPG in any season, and didn’t wow by any efficiency metric I care about. And, worse yet, he underwhelmed by all counting metrics, stuck in a RBBC. But I think, at least, that latter point can at least be partially explained away by the following factors:

1) White handled only 35% of the team’s RB carries in 2021, but the team’s RB2 – James Cook (25%) – is also a highly regarded draft-eligible prospect. So, this situation could be similar to that of Javonte Williams and Michael Carter last year. Where though neither RB had the counting stats my model typically desired, I didn’t penalize either RB too heavily for that fact. That said, my Production Model still loved both UNC RBs, while the Georgia tandem ranks quite low overall.

2) Georgia has long (confusingly) stuck to a RBBC, so this could have more to do with team preference than a perceived absence of a talent gap between White and Cook. For instance, in D’Andre Swift’s final season at Georgia (2019), he handled only 48% of his team’s carries, with Brian Herrian (UDFA) siphoning off another 25%. But again, that’s significantly more for Swift than White. And Swift, who left after his Junior season, ranked much higher in my Production Model.

And, if I can continue to make excuses for White… He suffered a torn ACL in his freshman season (the second torn ACL of his career), which (according to him) negatively impacted his performance over the next two seasons. And, thus, might play a role in his underwhelming efficiency numbers.

Ultimately, his high-end SPORQ score makes him a lot more interesting now, and I think I’ll be higher on him than consensus (and will rank him above James Cook), but I doubt he’ll find his way into my top-5 rookie RBs.

3. Pierre Strong, South Dakota State, 88.8 SPORQ

5-11, 207 lbs, Age: 22.5

Mock Draft Consensus: RB11

Strong tied for the best 40-yard-dash time in the class (4.37), which also ranked 17th-best (of 622 qualifiers) since 2000. However, if weight-adjusted (Speed Score), he ranked just 6th best in the class (113.5), but still 91st percentile overall. His jumps – 36.0” vertical and 124” broad – ranked top-5 in the class and 76th and 86th percentile (respectively) overall.

Strong ranks as the top non-FBS RB prospect in this class, per my Production Model, but still not quite too highly overall because: 1) non-FBS RBs rarely pan out, 2) he contributed nothing as a receiver, and 3) still wasn’t very dominant by the efficiency metric that matters most to my model (missed tackles forced, missed tackles forced per touch or attempt). However, on that latter point, he did impress by some of the more subordinate efficiency metrics. For instance, he averaged over 7.0 YPC throughout his college career (7.22), joining Travis Etienne as the only other RB to accomplish this feat since 2014.

When everything is said and done, I doubt I’ll have him ranked much higher than his current consensus ranking (RB11), but after his elite Combine showing and a Tevin Coleman comparison from Lance Zierlein, he’s at least interesting as a cheap boom-or-bust pick late in rookie drafts.

4. Kenneth Walker, Michigan State, 87.7 SPORQ

5-9, 211 lbs, Age: 21.4

Mock Draft Consensus: RB2

Walker is short in stature (5-9), but thick at 211 pounds (31.2 BMI). His 40-yard-dash time ranks 29th-best of 622 qualifiers since 2000 (95th percentile), and his Speed Score of 114.7 ranks 49th-best (92nd percentile). He was below average in the vertical jump (an irrelevant event for RBs), but ranked in the 79th percentile via the broad jump (122).

Again, I feel vindicated. Heading into the Combine, I had Kenneth Walker as the clear RB2 in this class, and a sizable tier ahead of whoever ranks third. And that now appears to be the consensus opinion.

I’ll save all additional analysis for a follow-up article.

Other Winners

Although Lance Zeirlein and Dane Brugler both have Rachaad White outside of their top-15 RBs in this class, my Production Model is a lot higher on him. Probably, dangerously high on him. So, I was encouraged by his near-elite showing at the Combine, recording an 82.1 SPORQ score, which ranks 6th-best in the class…. I’ll save all additional analysis for a follow-up article.

My Production Model doesn’t think too highly of Isaih Pacheco, even after I adjusted for the dumpster fire-like state of Rutgers’ offense. Still, his high-end SPORQ score of 86.7 – 5th-best in the class – points to some underrated upside in relation to his current consensus ranking (RB29). I doubt he’ll earn a draftable (rookie draftable) grade from me, but he could be interesting depending on landing spot. And, well, as a Rutgers alumnus and homer, I felt the need to at least mention him.

Losers

1. Me

Apparently the entire RB group “opted out” of both the 3-cone and short shuttle. Though, I think it’s just as likely there wasn’t enough time or there was some sort of a scheduling conflict that forced the Combine to abandon those events for the position.

The short shuttle isn’t at all important for RBs, however, the 3-cone is, specifically for smaller (skinnier) RBs. So, unfortunately, this did impact my model and some of the scores, but only slightly. I’ll do my best to update for the impacted RBs following their respective Pro Days.

2. Kyren Williams, Notre Dame, 3.0%

5-9, 194 lbs, Age: 21.6

Mock Draft Consensus: RB4

Williams is still the consensus RB4 in the class, per NFLMockDraftDatabase.com, but it feels hard to justify that ranking now. Williams ranks as the least athletic RB in the class, and, since 2000, the 19th-least athletic RB overall (of 622 qualifiers). Williams was penalized for his size, coming in at just 194 pounds, but also underwhelmed in every event. He’s the slowest RB in this class (4.65), and his 83.0 Speed Score ranks 18th-worst of 622 qualifiers since 2000. His 116 broad jump ranks 2nd-worst in this class, and ranks in the bottom-30% since 2000.

Williams gained 1,000 rushing yards and 300 receiving yards in each of his last two seasons at Notre Dame. Future NFL players and Notre Dame alumnus Dexter Williams (left in 2018) and Tony Jones Jr. (left in 2019) never accomplished either feat. So, that’s impressive. And my Production Model liked but didn’t love his pass-catching upside (his career YPRR average of 1.52 ranks among 5th-best in the class), and though he has the counting stats in his favor, he didn’t wow in any of the other efficiency metrics that matter most to me.

So, ultimately, my Production Model liked but didn’t love Williams, certainly not anywhere near enough to justify a RB4 ranking, and he’ll undoubtedly fall a lot farther now once his SPORQ score is factored into the equation.

3. Isaiah Spiller, Texas A&M, DNQ

6-0, 217 lbs, Age: 20.6

Mock Draft Consensus: RB3

My Production Model liked Spiller, the youngest flex-eligible player invited to the Combine, and had him ranked as one of the top RBs in this class, but still a tier behind Hall and Walker, and closer to some other names. The dynasty community likes him quite a bit more, but his Combine performance didn’t do him any favors in my mind.

Spiller recorded the worst Burst Score in the class (broad jump plus vertical jump). His vertical jump of 30.0” ranks 31st-worst of 539 qualifiers since 2000, and his broad jump of 114” ranks in the bottom-20%. He elected not to participate in the 40-yard-dash time due to a “strained abductor muscle” which limited his training. My Athleticism Model (and I too) typically view the decision to opt out of the 40-yard dash as a serious red flag for RB prospects, but in this case we can excuse it due to the injury. He’ll run the 40-yard dash at his Pro Day in late March, and it will need to be an impressive time for him to make up the ground he lost in the jumps.

I’ll save all additional analysis for a follow-up article.

Wide Receivers

The full list (all Combine WRs since 2000) can be found here.

Winners

1. Christian Watson, North Dakota State, 98.1 SPORQ

6-4, 208 lbs, Age: 22.9

Mock Draft Consensus: WR8

Watson ranks as the most athletic flex-eligible player in the class, and the 19th-most athletic WR since 2000 (of 997 qualifiers). He joins a top-20 list that includes D.K. Metcalf, Julio Jones, Calvin Johnson, Andre Johnson, Vincent Jackson, and Chase Claypool. At 6-4 and 208 pounds, he has ideal size for the position, but also ideal speed. His 4.36 40-yard-dash ranks 93rd percentile since 2000, and his 115.1 Speed Score ranks 95th percentile (48th-best of 997 qualifiers). Of 818 qualifying WRs since 2000, his 136” broad jump ranks tied for 6th-best of 818 qualifiers, and his Burst Score (which includes the vertical jump) ranks 15th-best of 808 qualifiers (98th percentile).

Unfortunately, I’m still too early in my process to tell you where Watson finishes in my Production Model. I’m sure he’ll be harshly dinged for being what my model considers a “super-small school prospect” (non-FBS), as the hit rate on all such WR prospects is abysmal. And for being nearly 23 years old — age is one of the more important variables in my WR Production Model. But I suspect he can make up some ground with elite production or efficiency metrics. And, in fact, I know he will. For instance, he earned a 4.33 YPRR average in 2021, which (since 2014) ranks 6th-best of over 4,000 qualifying seasons.

And obviously, the elite Combine showing helps matters greatly. But even beyond that, Brett Whitefield – one of my go-to film experts – told me (pre-Combine) he viewed Watson as a borderline top-5 WR prospect in this class (he currently ranks as the WR9 by dynasty rookie ADP). And, well, Whitefield’s track record on WRs is fairly unrivaled, and so that’s extremely significant to me.

I’ll save all additional analysis for a follow-up article.

2. Isaiah Weston, Northern Iowa, 97.3 SPORQ

6-4, 214 lbs, Age: 24.4

Mock Draft Consensus: WR36

Watson’s athletic profile is elite, but shouldn’t overshadow Weston’s (yes, that is confusing). Weston ranks 27th-best of 997 qualifiers since 2000, just eight spots below Watson, and one spot below Odell Beckham Jr. Like Watson, Weston has ideal size – listed at 6-4 and 208 pounds – and ideal speed. His Speed Score of 112.1 ranks in the 92nd percentile, and his jumps were even more impressive. His 94th percentile vertical jump and 99th percentile broad jump combine to give him the 13th-best (98th percentile) Burst Score by any WR since 2000 (of 808 qualifiers). And his 20 bench press reps ranks in the 93rd percentile (35th-best of 500 qualifiers), and that’s – believe it or not – a statistically significant event (albeit ever so slightly) for WRs of Weston’s size.

Like Watson, Weston will be harshly penalized by my Production Model for being a “super-small school prospect”, and for being obscenely old, but will rank highly within that classification (but not quite as high as Watson). For instance, since 2014, Weston ranks 7th-best (of nearly 1,000 qualifiers) in career YPT average (12.8), behind only Jaylen Waddle, CeeDee Lamb, Ja’Marr Chase, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Jameson Williams, Marquise Brown, and DeVonta Smith. And he ranks best overall by career YPR average with 12.8. (Watson, by the way, ranks 8th and 6th respectively on those lists.)

I still have a lot more research to do with the WR class, but I could see myself hyping up Weston to the same degree as I did with Jacob Harris last year – which is to say, he’s another late fourth round rookie draft pick with underrated upside. Anyway, I’ll save all additional analysis for a follow-up article.

3. Alec Pierce, Cincinnati, 93.9 SPORQ

6-3, 211 lbs, Age: 21.9

Mock Draft Consensus: WR15

Pierce, at 6-3 and 211 pounds, is a similarly sized WR with a similarly elite athletic score. He earned a 91st percentile Speed Score, a 95th percentile vertical jump, a 93rd percentile broad jump, and a 94th percentile Burst Score. He actually finished well below average in the 3-cone (24th percentile) and the short shuttle (37th percentile), but my Athleticism Model said those events were almost totally irrelevant for a WR of his size.

Pierce is another small school WR prospect (non-Power 5) but not a super-small school WR prospect (non-FBS). So, while the model will penalize him for that fact, he won’t be dinged as harshly as Watson or Weston. Still, I suspect my Production Model will find his production and efficiency metrics a little lacking. He’s been Cincinnati’s top receiver in three consecutive seasons, but he averaged only 61.3 YPG in his best and final season, which was nearly identical to what Kahlil Lewis averaged (60.2) in Desmond Ridder’s freshman season. Who is Kahlil Lewis? Exactly.

Other Winners

Skyy Moore is yet another small (but not “super-small”) school WR with an elite Combine showing. He ranks 5th-best in the class by SPORQ score (89.5), just barely missing out on a top-10 percentile showing. In addition to high-end marks in all of the key events for a player of his size (only 5-10), he also had the biggest hands of any WR at the Combine (10.25”) and (allegedly) the fastest 10-yard-split by any WR over the past four years (1.38).

Contrary to public perception, Treylon Burks did not have a disastrous showing at the Combine. Underwhelming? Probably. But certainly not bad. He finished with a SPORQ score of 68.9, well above average, and well above consensus WR1 Garrett Wilson’s 44.1. (For clarity, the main differentiator between them was Burks’ ideal size and superior Speed Score.)

I’ll dig deeper into these WRs in a follow-up article.

Losers

1. David Bell, Purdue, 17.9 SPORQ

6-1, 212 lbs, Age: 21.3

Mock Draft Consensus: WR10

Bell is a player I could have seen my Production Model getting really getting excited about. He burst onto the scene as a true freshman, turning 86 catches into 1,035 yards and 7 touchdowns, all before turning 19 years of age. So, he clearly has an elite Breakout Age working in his favor, and, impressively, he was only slightly less productive than Rondale Moore throughout his first two seasons – averaging 92.2 YPG to Moore’s 93.9 – before Moore was selected in Round 2 of the 2021 NFL Draft. Bell leaves Purdue having averaged 101.6 YPG throughout his career, which ranks 6th-best among all Power-5 WRs since 2000. And he ranks 2nd in career receptions per game (8.0), behind only Michael Crabtree (8.9).

But, yeah, his Combine was bad. Really bad.

His 4.65 40-yard-dash time ranks 76th-worst of 996 qualifiers since 2000. And by Speed Score (90.7) it’s only in the 25th percentile. His 4.57 short shuttle time ranks 10th-worst of 676 qualifiers, and his 3-cone (22nd percentile), vertical jump (24th), and broad jump (35th) were all similarly abhorrent as well. And, thus, he finished as a bottom-20 percentile athlete, with a score of 17.9.

There are very few “hits” within the bottom-20th percentile (by SPORQ score), and those hits came almost exclusively from slot WRs – Cooper Kupp (7.0), Keenan Allen (18.6), Jarvis Landry (5.7), and Hunter Renfrow (10.9) – with Chad Johnson (12.4) and then Brandon Lloyd (10.1) being the only two notable exceptions. (For clarity, Bell gained only 12% of his career receiving yards from the slot at Purdue, but it’s possible NFL teams may recommend a conversion.)

Ultimately, this was bad enough that we could see Bell’s draft stock plummet to Day 3. Even if my Production Model really likes him, he’ll rank a lot lower in my final rankings.

Other Losers

Consensus WR6 Jahan Dotson seriously underwhelmed, recording a 21.2 SPORQ score. Although his 4.43 40-yard-dash time appears impressive, it was underwhelming for his size (30th percentile Speed Score). And his size itself is an issue, at only 178 pounds with a sub-25.0 BM (24.8). (Of 108 qualifiers, DeSean Jackson and Antonio Bryant were the only two WRs with a sub-25.0 BMI to post multiple 1,000-yard seasons.) And his 3-cone of 7.28 ranks 62nd-worst of 658 qualifiers since 2000, and even worse if weight-adjusted.

Consensus WR7 George Pickens also underwhelmed, but not nearly to the same degree as Dotson, recording a 32.5 SPORQ score. He was similarly penalized for a sub-25.0 BMI (24.4), and posted below average marks by Speed Score (49th percentile) and the vertical jump (24th). Although he impressed via the broad jump (81st percentile), that’s a fairly irrelevant event for a WR of his size… But maybe there should be an asterisk on this score, as he suffered an ACL injury less than 12 months ago (the typical recovery timeline is 9-12 months), and though he was self-reportedly back to full health, this injury may have impacted his training for the Combine.

Consensus WR1 Garrett Wilson also failed to clear the 25.0 BMI threshold (24.8), opted out of the 3-cone (an important event for a player of his size), and ranked only barely above average by Speed Score (56th percentile) and the vertical jump (62nd), netting him a near-perfectly-average 49.1 SPORQ score.

Consensus WR4 Jameson Williams didn’t participate in any events, but won’t be penalized, considering it was injury-related – he suffered a torn ACL in January. And he probably is an elite athlete, as a former track star who reportedly ran a 4.4 40-yard-dash in high school. Still, at 6-2 and 179 lbs, his 22.98 BMI is highly alarming. (Though, granted, this could also be due to the injury, impacting his ability to train.) Since 2000, only 8 other WRs invited to the Combine failed to clear a 23.0 BMI. Even DeVonta Smith came in at 23.1.

Consensus WR11 Wan’Dale Robinson ran a 4.44 40-yard-dash, but his numbers everywhere else were well below average and his size (5-8, 178 pounds) was also a major red flag. Although my Production Model really liked him (a lot more than his current consensus ranking), he’s going to fall a sizable distance given this score (40.1).

Drake London (consensus WR2) and Justyn Ross (WR13) opted out of the 40-yard-dash, though they were purportedly fully healthy. So, without a valid excuse, my Athleticism Model will view this as a red flag – an indicator of below-average athleticism – and they will be seriously penalized for that fact if they don’t impress at their respective Pro Days.

I’ll dig deeper into all of these WRs in a follow-up article.

Tight Ends

The full list (all Combine TEs since 2000) can be found here.

Winners

1. Daniel Bellinger, San Diego State, 90.7 SPORQ

6-6, 255 lbs, Age: 21.5

Mock Draft Consensus: TE13

Bellinger posted the 3rd-best Speed Score in the class (110.0), the 2nd-best vert jump (34.5), the best broad jump (125), and the 3rd-best weight-adjusted 3-cone. Truthfully, I think he’s probably not the most athletic TE in the class, but these numbers were all solid enough that – and with so many of the other TEs being dinged for opting out of various events – that he ranks best overall in this class, and still fairly elite overall.

Bellinger, who hails from San Diego State (a “small school” but not a “super-small school”), totals just 1.66 YPRR in his best season and only 32.5 YPG in his final season. And as such, my Production Model had little love for him. And such little love that his high-end SPORQ score probably doesn’t lift him above a low-end Day 3 grade.

2. Chigoziem Okonkwo, Maryland, 87.9 SPORQ

6-3, 238 lbs, Age: 22.5

Mock Draft Consensus: TE11

Okonwu didn’t have the best Speed Score in the class, just barely edged out by Jelani Woods (114.7), but his score of 114.0 ranks 38th-best of 387 qualifiers since 2000. His 4.52 40-yard-dash ranks 20th-best of 387 qualifiers. And he posted a 35.5-inch vertical jump, which led the class, and ranks in the top-25th-percentile (69th of 323 qualifiers). But those were the only two events in which he participated. He very well could be the most athletic TE in the class, but my model penalized him for not participating in the 3-cone and broad jump.

My Production Model didn’t love Okonkwu, who posted a career-best YPRR average of just 1.45 last season. He did little else throughout his career at Maryland, but also missed the entirety of his junior season due to myocarditis. Last year, through 13 games, he caught 52 balls for 447 yards (3rd-best on the team) and 5 touchdowns.

3. Jelani Woods, TE, Virginia, 86.6 SPORQ

6-7, 259 lbs, Age: 23.4

Mock Draft Consensus: TE10

Woods is a monster of a man, listed at 6-7 and 259 pounds – though, for what it’s worth, skinnier TEs have historically out-produced their larger counterparts holding similar draft capital. And he may very well be the most athletic TE in the class – he posted a class-best and truly elite (90th percentile) Speed Score of 114.0 (and that’s the most important variable in my Combine Model) – but we can’t say for sure, because he didn’t participate in the 3-cone, vertical jump, and broad jump. And my model penalized him for that fact.

Woods was a former top-25 quarterback prospect coming out of high school who converted to TE late in his freshman season at Oklahoma. He did little through three seasons with the Cowboys, before transferring to Virginia in his senior season. Through 11 games he totaled 44 catches for 598 yards and 8 scores. That’s solid raw production, but he ranked just 5th on the team in receiving yards, and was only middlingly efficient in terms of YPRR (1.80).

Other Losers

Everyone else.

Seriously.

No other TE eclipsed a 67% SPORQ score. And so many of my favorite TEs in this class opted out of the most important event for a TE (the 40-yard dash).

Players without a valid excuse (injury) or an outstanding Pro Day will be seriously penalized for that fact.

Though, if I had to pick a top “loser” – no offense to the 20-something year old kid trying to realize his childhood dream – it’d be Jeremiah Hall, who ranks as one of the least athletic TEs to ever participate in the NFL Combine, recording a 1.3% SPORQ score.