2024 Week 9 DFS Early Look

Week 8 of the NFL regular season just wrapped up, meaning Week 9 is just around the corner. As my readers likely know, DFS is the best version of fantasy football, and since DraftKings and FanDuel have released their Week 9 prices, it’s time to track down the obvious values and best plays.

Here are the plays that jumped out to me for Week 9 DFS:

Jameis Winston, QB, Cleveland Browns (VS. LAC)

DraftKings: $5,400 (QB20) | FanDuel: $7,000 (QB19)

Winston just balled out in his first start – throwing for 334 yards, 3 TDs, and scoring 27.6 DraftKings points in an upset win over Baltimore.

This is exactly what we expected and had been hoping for. The combination of Cleveland’s hyper-aggressive offensive play-calling (top-5 in pass rate over expectation) and pace (8th-most plays per game) leads to an awesome fantasy offense when a real NFL QB is under center. Winston has provided a serious spark here, and neither DFS site significantly raised his price heading into Week 9.

And now Winston gets a neutral matchup with the Chargers, priced as one of the cheapest starting QBs on either site. There is no reason Winston should priced under $6,000 on DraftKings after Joe Flacco averaged 24.4 DraftKings FPG in this offense last year.

Alvin Kamara, RB, New Orleans Saints (@ CAR)

DraftKings: $7,800 (RB4) | FanDuel: $8,800 (RB4)

Kamara was a victim of poor game script and offensive incompetency in Week 8, and he still finished with a top-10 RB workload on the week (19.1 XFP) despite playing on just five snaps in the 4th quarter.

Week 9 looks notably better for the veteran RB. Derek Carr could suit up, and 7.0 points against Carolina favor New Orleans — Kamara is +25% more productive in wins and +57% more productive when leading (on a per-snap basis) since the 2022 season. On top of the game script advantage, Carolina is the single-softest schedule-adjusted matchup for opposing RBs (+5.3 FPG). If there was ever a get-right spot for Kamara and the New Orleans offense, it would be against the league’s worst defense by PPG allowed (33.9) in the last 20 years.

De’Von Achane, RB, Miami Dolphins (VS. BUF)

DraftKings: $6,700 (RB12) | FanDuel: $7,800 (RB11)

Achane averages 21.6 XFP/G and 26.4 FPG in his games with Tua Tagovailoa this season. Over the full year, those marks would both rank 1st among RBs. And yet, Achane is priced as a low-end RB1 on both sites.

There is a strong argument that with Tagovialoa under center, Achane is the most valuable RB in fantasy football. And he has a great chance to prove it this week. Buffalo is a top-3 on-paper matchup for opposing RBs, primarily because they allowed the 3rd-most schedule-adjusted receiving production to RBs (+5.1 FPG). Achane averages an absurd 17.2 receiving FPG with Tagovailoa under center this season – that would rank 9th-best among WRs. Nobody benefits more from Tagovailoa’s return than Achane, and his DFS price simply doesn’t reflect it.

Aaron Jones, RB, Minnesota Vikings (VS. IND)

FanDuel: $7,500 (RB14)

Jones is only available on the FanDuel slate as he’s playing on Sunday Night Football, but the value here is obvious. Jones led all Week 8 RBs in snap share (92%), and averages 17.1 XFP/G (7th-best among RBs over the full season) and 17.6 FPG (9th-best) in his fully healthy games this season.

The matchup is solid – Indianapolis ranks as the 7th-softest schedule-adjusted matchup for opposing RBs, mainly due to the 151.9 rushing YPG they’ve allowed this season (3rd-most). But the projected gamescript is even better. The Vikings are favored by 6.0 points, and Jones sees his rushing YPG jump +66% in wins since 2022, while his per-snap usage jumps +15% in that same sample. Even if Minnesota can’t maintain a lead here, Jones’ 15% target share (3rd-highest among RBs) will keep him involved. He profiles as one of the best RB values on FanDuel this week.

A.J. Brown, WR, Philadelphia Eagles (VS. JAX)

DraftKings: $8,100 (WR3) | FanDuel: $9,000 (WR4)

Brown’s usage (12.7 XFP/G, WR35) has lagged behind other elite WRs, but he’s still the WR2 by FPG (20.0). And he might not need much volume in Week 9 to post a monster score, as he’s facing a Jacksonville pass defense that ranks as the 3rd-softest schedule-adjusted matchup for opposing WRs (+9.9 FPG). On top of ranking bottom-3 in receiving YPG allowed (284.0), and passer rating allowed (111.8) – the Jaguars are allowing by far the most receiving YPG (78.9) on deep throws. Meanwhile, Brown has scored 49% of his fantasy points on deep targets this season. The only risk here is that Philadelphia wins in such dominant fashion that they don’t need to push the ball downfield to Brown. Even so, he’s a fun bet for tournaments in the perfect matchup.

Ladd McConkey, WR, Los Angeles Chargers (@ CLE)

DraftKings: $5,600 (WR29) | FanDuel: $6,400 (WR26)

The Chargers are embracing the passing game more than I would have ever assumed possible given how they started the year. Since their Week 5 bye, Justin Herbert ranks 3rd in total pass attempts (105), 3rd in passing yards (865), and 4th in completion percentage over expectation (+7.5%).

This uptick in passing volume notably benefits McConkey. He leads the team in first-read target share (27%), air yardage share (28%), and XFP/G (11.4). Any increase in pass game volume notably improves McConkey’s fantasy prospects, and a matchup with Jameis Winston doesn’t hurt either. Cleveland’s last six regular season games with either Joe Flacco or Winston have averaged 53.0 total PPG. Combine a team prone to shootouts (as long as Deshaun Watson is out of the lineup) with a team increasing their pass rate, and we have a recipe for a sneaky DFS game stack.

Courtland Sutton, WR, Denver Broncos (@ BAL)

DraftKings: $5,400 (WR33) | FanDuel: $6,000 (WR35)

Sutton’s volume (14.2 XFP/G, WR17) has been far better than what his DFS salary would imply all season. But it took a Week 8 matchup with one of the worst defenses in football for Sutton to finally post a big fantasy performance (21.1 DraftKings points).

And you’d be hard-pressed to find a better matchup than the Baltimore Ravens. This is the single-softest schedule-adjusted defense for opposing WRs (+11.5 FPG) – notably worse than the Carolina defense Sutton just torched for 9 receptions and 100 yards (the Panthers rank 9th-softest by this same metric). And passing volume shouldn’t be much of an issue here – the Broncos are 9.0-point underdogs and will need to throw early and often. Bo Nix is an erratic passer, which makes Sutton volatile, but I want to lean into that volatility when he’s underpriced in an elite matchup.

Cedric Tillman, WR, Cleveland Browns (VS. LAC)

DraftKings: $4,300 (WR54) | FanDuel: $6,100 (WR34)

Tillman has played in two games without Deshaun Watson and Amari Cooper, averaging 10.5 targets per game, 19.7 XFP/G, and 23.5 FPG in those contests. Over the whole season, those marks would all rank top-5 among WRs.

I don’t expect Tillman to maintain top-5 WR production or usage for the rest of the year, but his role is so much better than his DFS salaries that it warrants mention. The matchup here is a slight negative (the Chargers are a bottom-10 schedule-adjusted matchup for outside WRs), but Tillman’s price is so absurdly low that we need to consider him a top value in Week 9.

Evan Engram, TE, Jacksonville Jaguars (VS. PHI)

DraftKings: $5,300 (TE4) | FanDuel: $6,400 (TE5)

Engram is the last man standing in Jacksonville. Christian Kirk is lost for the season, while Brian Thomas Jr. and Gabe Davis both look questionable for Week 9 after getting beat up on Sunday.

Engram is already one of the most utilized TEs in fantasy football. If we just look at his healthy games, he ranks 2nd among TEs in XFP/RR (0.49) and 3rd in TPRR (0.28). If Jacksonville is without 52% of their targets on Sunday, Engram will be forced into one of the most valuable TE fantasy roles in the NFL. Tack on extreme negative gamescript with Jacksonville listed as a 7.0-point underdog, and Engram’s path to double-digit targets is wide open this week.