2024 Week 8 WR/CB Fantasy Matchups

With Fantasy Points Data — a project we’ve worked on for nearly two years behind the scenes before launching in 2023 — we wanted to answer one big question: what if we tailored all of the data our team has gathered (hand-charted from our team of experts) directly to the fantasy player?

Based on years of playing season-long fantasy, dynasty, and DFS — and using all the charted data out there to build models and try to gain an advantage in a game where the margins are shrinking — we believe we’ve found where we can do things better. That is the Fantasy Points Data Suite.

Using Fantasy Points Data, I wrote a (FSWA nominated!) weekly column last year called the Mismatch Report. It identified the biggest OL/DL and WR/CB mismatches of the week based on our data.

But now, we have an actual NFL scout, Scott DiBenedetto, breaking down our OL/DL matchups. So I’m going to make this a column focused on some WR/secondary matchups that I’m identifying as either problematic or potentially juicy for fantasy.

WR/CB Tool

Our WR/CB Matchup Tool is sortable with loads of matchup data.

A note on our process: there are very few situations in the NFL in which one receiver will match up with one corner for the vast majority of his routes. So honestly, WR/CB matchups in the traditional sense are perhaps the most overrated form of fantasy analysis.

We aim to do them better: our process breaks down how many routes a receiver runs from a certain alignment, and assigns a weighted score based on how much that receiver is expected to see a given defender based on those alignments. So it will measure how often we expect a receiver to face all defenders in a matchup, not just one particular defender, and weigh a score by those expected percentages.

If I do believe there will be a “shadow CB” situation, I’ll mention it and break down the matchup.

SHADOW ALERT! Dolphins CB Jalen Ramsey vs. Cardinals WR Marvin Harrison, Jr.

The Dolphins don’t shadow Ramsey every week — only twice this year has he followed a WR on more than 50% of routes. In Week 3, he trailed DK Metcalf on 81% of routes, allowing no catches in his primary coverage (Metcalf had a big game, but not on Ramsey). In Week 4, he followed Calvin Ridley on 62.5% of his routes… and allowed no catches in his primary coverage.

The thing that makes Ramsey tough is that he will selectively go into the slot — about 22% of his coverage snaps. But he does play primarily outside, and that’s why we’re tentatively projecting this shadow on MHJ, who goes into the slot on just 24% of his routes. As anyone who has Harrison on a roster knows, it’s been a tough go so far. As our Jordan Vanek pointed out in this week’s ASS Report, nearly 48% of his routes are Go, Post, and Corner routes. Those are big-play routes, and when the diminutive Kyler Murray doesn’t see him running wide open on them… well, Harrison doesn’t score points.

Harrison is averaging 0.24 targets per route run this season, and a 20.5% win rate. But on corner routes, his TPRR is down at just .1, with a 15% win rate. On posts, it’s 0.17 TPRR, with a 18.2% win rate. And on gos, it’s 0.29 TPRR… but just a 10% win rate. So he’s running a high percentage of low-percentage routes.

That, paired with a projected Ramsey shadow, makes Harrison little more than a WR3 to me this week.

SHADOW ALERT! Steelers CB Joey Porter, Jr. vs Giants WR Malik Nabers

We projected Peezy Jr. would shadow Davante Adams in his Jets debut last week, and that wasn’t the case — he followed Adams on 30% of his routes, and Garrett Wilson on 38% of his routes. On those 17 combined routes, Porter allowed 1 catch for 9 yards to Adams and Wilson, total. (It was a catch for Adams.)

One can argue that Porter is emerging as a legitimate shutdown CB, which probably isn’t the best news for Nabers. He went viral after last week’s game against the Eagles for insisting he was open, effectively throwing QB Daniel Jones under the bus. Giants coach Brian Daboll seemed to agree, at least in part, because he openly acknowledged that he was considering a switch to Drew Lock for this week.

But it will remain Dan Dimes under center, and Nabers has this incredibly difficult draw. At least his target share has remained ridiculous — his 34.5% share is most among any WR who has played in more than half his team’s games. Moreover, he moves inside on about 25% of his routes, something the Giants might try to do more this week to get him away from Porter.

Because of that, he’s a must-start in season-long leagues, but I wonder if Showdown players should consider a different captain for Monday night’s slate.

SHADOW ALERT! Giants CB Deonte Banks vs. Steelers WR George Pickens

On the flip side of the Monday night tilt, we have a battle of two mercurial youngsters. Neither Banks nor Pickens has a Ph.D. in good body language, and Banks, in particular, had a particularly rough go last week. Though he did a decent enough job on AJ Brown — 4/48 surrendered on 4 targets, while shadowing him on 68.4% of his routes — Banks was called out by his coaches and reporters for “business decisions.”

Meanwhile, Pickens — known for not putting himself in harm’s way when he’s disgruntled — showed new life with Russell Wilson’s “moonballs” last week. With Wilson last week, Pickens saw an aDOT of 16.8 (!), and three of his five catches were deemed as “hero” catches — a category in which he leads the NFL. Already a top-20 separator by Average Separation Score, Pickens’ aggressive high-pointing of the ball will certainly earn him some trust from Wilson.

Give me Pickens over Banks in this matchup. I think he’s a borderline WR1.

SHADOW ALERT! Patriots CB Christian Gonzalez vs. Jets WR Davante Adams

Garrett Wilson got the best of Gonzalez, at least from a fantasy perspective, in their matchup earlier this year — he posted 5/33/1 on 9 targets in Gonzalez’s primary coverage. And it was a pure shadow, as Gonzalez aligned over Wilson on 89% of his routes back in Week 3, including following Wilson into the slot for 14 routes, a number we rarely see from a perimeter CB.

So now we wonder if they’ll try something else this week. Adams’ role won’t increase in his second game with the Jets — he ran a route on 90% of Aaron Rodgers’ dropbacks last week, and was targeted 9 times. It’ll be hard for those numbers to get much higher.

So, that begs the question… why are we projecting Gonzalez to shadow Adams, and not Wilson? Well, I doubt it’s a coincidence that in Week 7 — the Jets’ first game with Adams and Wilson — Wilson ran 19 snaps from the slot, the most he’s run inside in any game this season. Now, Adams wasn’t far behind at 17 routes, but Adams did play more outside than inside.

Meanwhile, the Patriots haven’t moved Gonzalez inside nearly as much as of late. In Week 6, he shadowed Stefon Diggs, but almost exclusively on Diggs’ perimeter routes — he went inside with Diggs just 3 times.

Honestly, I feel like I’m almost reading too much into this, because as Wilson showed earlier this year (and as Diggs did in Week 6), Gonzalez is not some unassailable matchup we need to avoid for fantasy football. It’s just really cool information to know!

I think both Adams and Wilson are WR2s this week.

Rams WR Cooper Kupp vs. Vikings CB Byron Murphy

I felt like I needed to address this elephant. After all, I (correctly) highlighted this matchup as a positive one for Amon-Ra St. Brown last week, and he went off. The Vikings are giving up a ridiculous +11.7 schedule-adjusted FPG to slot receivers over the last five weeks, which is by far the most in the NFL. In his two games this year, Kupp has run over 60% of his routes from the slot, so that’s where we’re projecting him to line up in Week 8.

But there are layers to this onion.

First of all, it was unfair for me to blame Murphy solely for the VIkings’ slot struggles. Per our Brett Whitefield, when Murphy, Josh Metellus, and Harrison Smith are all healthy, Minnesota effectively plays slot-CB-by-committee (Murphy has aligned outside about 80% of the time the last three weeks). And of course, Kupp and Murphy have a history, dating back to Murphy’s time with the Cardinals (see below).

Ultimately, I’m not shying away from this draw, and in fact, I’m targeting it. Murphy gave up one catch to ARSB last week… but it was his 35-yard score. I think Matthew Stafford will love having his guy back. And I’m using Kupp wherever I have him.

Packers WRs vs. Jaguars CBs

I like this draw for all of Green Bay’s receivers, but especially for Jayden Reed — the Jaguars allow the 3rd-most schedule-adjusted FPG to opposing slot WRs on the year. And though Reed had just 2 catches for 10 yards last week, it came on a season-high 86% route share, so the usage is there.

But not only do the Jaguars hemorrhage points in the slot, they do it on the perimeter, as well! They surrender the most schedule-adjusted FPG to opposing outside receivers. If you’re looking to exploit that matchup, it certainly appears that Romeo Doubs has the advantage given his usage (see Graham Barfield below) — Doubs leads the team in yards per route run (2.46) in the four games with Reed, Christian Watson, and Dontayvion Wicks available.

You’ll likely need a big play from Watson or Wicks for them to come through for DFS purposes, but if there’s a matchup for them to do it, it’s this one. Jacksonville is allowing a league-high 124.9 yards per game to receivers aligned out wide.

Bears WR DJ Moore vs. Commanders Perimeter CBs

The Bears’ WR trio of Moore, Keenan Allen, and Rome Odunze is presumably healthy coming off Chicago’s bye. And unless something changed — entirely possible! — that’s good news for Moore in fantasy. In the four games that the Bears have had all three active, Moore leads the way in routes, targets, and air yards (though he has just one more first-read target than Allen).

But as the Bears’ primary LWR, we’re projecting him to see a plurality of Emmanuel Forbes this week. Forbes had a strong game against Carolina last week, but the Commanders have allowed the 10th-most schedule-adjusted FPG to perimeter WRs. Moore’s burgeoning relationship with rookie QB Caleb Williams will have an opportunity to strengthen again this week.

Bears CB Jaylon Johnson vs. Commanders WR Terry McLaurin

On the flip side of the Chicago/Washington matchup, there’s a potential dogfight.

Johnson doesn’t shadow — instead, the Bears prefer to align him to the wide side of the field, where he has to cover more ground than their boundary CB (typically Tyrique Stevenson this year). And Johnson has been nothing short of elite this year. Among CBs with 100 or more coverage snaps played this year, his 0.10 FP/coverage snap allowed is tied for third-lowest. His QB rating allowed when targeted is a minuscule 30.1 — remember, a quarterback intentionally throwing the ball away on every play would have a 39.6 rating.

McLaurin typically aligns at LWR for the Commanders — about 69% of his snaps. If he’s not at LWR, chances are he’s in the slot (21%). So on a good percentage of his routes, he’ll align across from Johnson. Moreover, he’ll likely play without QB Jayden Daniels (ribs) this week. Marcus Mariota had a solid day in relief against Carolina last week, but the Bears’ secondary is a more precarious challenge.

McLaurin is more of a WR3 this week.

Broncos CBs vs. Panthers WR Diontae Johnson

I mean, I guess I could call this matchup “Panthers QB Bryce Young vs. Panthers WR Diontae Johnson,” as Diontae has averaged 2.5 catches and 17 receiving yards per game in games Young starts vs. 5 catches and 64.6 yards per game in Andy Dalton starts. Dalton is out this week against the Broncos with a sprained thumb suffered in a car accident, while Diontae is questionable with a rib injury of his own.

Meanwhile, the Broncos are expected to get stud CB Patrick Surtain back from a concussion. It’s possible Denver users Surtain to shadow Diontae, which would make this draw even worse. But even if they play it straight, the Broncos have surrendered a league-low -8.6 schedule-adjusted FPG to opposing WRs. It’s a brutal draw for a banged-up receiver, especially one playing with a quarterback who has never looked the part.

In a full week of games, there’s a very good chance you have three WRs on your roster who are better choices than Johnson this week.

Jets CBs vs. Patriots WRs

Drake Maye has been excellent for fantasy so far, especially for someone with no expectations. In both of his starts this year, he’s outscored any Patrick Mahomes start (which really says more about how disappointing Mahomes has been, but I digress).

The Jets should have their full CB room good to go this week — Sauce Gardner got dinged up last week but is fine, while DJ Reed and Michael Carter are back to practice after missing time.

That’s bad news for anyone streaming Maye or those who picked up Pop Douglas. I’d prefer to look in another direction for Week 8.