I look forward to the playoffs every season. Not only is the best football played at this time, but for obvious reasons, my workload dwindles significantly, so I have more time to actually enjoy the football.
But I always have another itch to scratch… because fantasy football isn’t over.
Every year, I use MyFantasyLeague to run a one-and-done playoff contest for me and my friends (many of whom you know through Fantasy Points).
The rules are simple.
You pick a starting lineup of 10 players every week: 1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE, 2 RWT FLEX, 1 PK, and 1 DST. PPR scoring with 4 points per TD and -2 per INT. You get 3 points per field goal and 1 per XP, and return TDs (but not yards) count.
You can pick any player from any team for your lineup every week… except you can only use a guy ONCE throughout the playoffs. So if you use Josh Allen this week, you can’t use him again. So you want to both maximize your score any given week… but make sure you have enough good players left for each subsequent week. And we dwindle from 14 teams available in Playoff Week 1… to just 2 for the Super Bowl.
THIS YEAR IN MY POOL, I’VE MADE SCORING IN THE SUPER BOWL 2X… SO IT’S MORE IMPORTANT TO HAVE PLAYERS WHO ADVANCE.
In other words, you have to predict both this week’s games and next week’s games. And much like DFS, you want to avoid being too chalky to create variance on the field. So there’s a lot of strategy involved.
I also pay out weekly prizes in addition to the playoff-long grand prizes.
So, I figured I’d write a quick article about my strategy in this contest for those of you doing something similar. Some of the other guys on staff who participate will follow with their picks, as well.
Joe Dolan
Quarterback (Start 1, Max of 1)
Here’s what I wrote last week:
“I’ve decided that I cannot miss out on using fantasy’s top two quarterbacks and the league’s top two MVP candidates — Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen — and that means I’ll have to use one this week and one next week (if both teams win, as projected, they’ll play each other, which guarantees one of them is going home next week).”
I used Allen last week. It’s time to use Lamar Jackson and save the NFC QBs for the Super Bowl.
Also Considered: Josh Allen
Also Considered: None
Running Back (Start 2, Max of 4)
I made an absolutely moronic error last week.
Part of the strategy of One-and-Done playoff leagues is to pick players who get eliminated, so you maximize the number of players you have in forthcoming weeks. That’s obvious. But part of winning in One-and-Done is also, y’know, scoring points.
Derrick Henry absolutely crushes when his team is a favorite. The Ravens were 10-point favorites against the Steelers last week. And of course Henry went off, running for 186 yards and 2 scores. I’d really like to have that performance in my back pocket, and if I had thought about it for more than a minute or two, I’d have gotten Henry into my lineup and created leverage on the field, which overwhelmingly saved Henry.
Now, I’m torn between Henry and James Cook, because one of them is going home this week. I picked the Bills to go to the Super Bowl before the playoffs, and I’ll stick with that. I’ll use Henry this week, though I’d be shocked if he replicates his performance from the Wild Card round.
I’m also going to use Jahmyr Gibbs — I think David Montgomery will have a limited role in his first game back, and I can also save Monty for the Super Bowl in the event the Lions advance. Meanwhile, this massive scoring total is not something I want to fade.
I’ll use Kyren Williams in the snow in Philly. I considered Joe Mixon, but he’s dinged up, and I think Saquon Barkley will advance.
Already Used: Josh Jacobs, Bucky Irving
Also Considered: Saquon Barkley, James Cook, Joe Mixon
Wide Receiver (Start 2, Max of 4)
I picked the wrong WR in the Chargers/Texans game last week, using Nico Collins instead of Ladd McConkey. Collins had a good game, but McConkey had a bigger one, and now I can’t use Collins this week.
That’s rough, because it is a brutal week for picking losing WRs. I already used Terry McLaurin and Puka Nacua as well, so the #1 WR for all three heavy underdogs this weekend is not available to me.
Elsewhere, I’m using Rashod Bateman against Buffalo, with Zay Flowers looking iffy to play again. On the opposite sideline, I’ll play Khalil Shakir — my rationale is that if Buffalo wins, I still have multiple Bills pass catchers available to me for future rounds and I don’t want to miss out on this scoring environment.
That’s why I’m also rolling the dice and using Jameson Williams. While I expect the Lions to advance, I want a piece of this game for scoring-environment purposes. And I project the Lions will play Philly next week — a much tougher defense than Jamo faces this week.
Already Used: Puka Nacua, Justin Jefferson, Terry McLaurin, Nico Collins
Also Considered: Cooper Kupp
Tight End (Start 1, Max of 3)
Another game without Zay Flowers seems likely. Speaking of Likely, I used Isaiah last week, so I’ll get Mark Andrews in here this week, giving me a Lamar double stack.
Also Considered: Zach Ertz
Kicker and DST (Start 1 Each)
Ka’imi Fairbairn is a good kicker who should be going home after this week.
I’m using the Philadelphia Defense. In a snow game in Philly in 2013, Matthew Stafford (with Calvin Johnson at his disposal) went 10/25 for 151 yards with 5 fumbles.
Graham Barfield
Quarterback (Start 1, Max of 1)
Jared Goff (Det) – The Lions are implied to score 32.25 points. That’s the highest individual team total for a game this entire season. I wouldn’t go into this slate without one Lion rostered. Jared Goff presents an interesting game theory play. I was all in on Jayden Daniels last week. If I use Goff now, I will leave myself with the entire AFC deck of QBs along with the winner of Rams-Eagles for the Championship Round. I expect that 70-80% of rosters will have one of Josh Allen or Lamar Jackson at QB this weekend.
Players used: Jayden Daniels (Was)
Running Back (Start 2, Max of 4)
Derrick Henry (Bal) – The Ravens run game is putting up unprecedented levels of production. They’re a force to be reckoned with. Baltimore just trampled Pittsburgh – their 299 rushing yards vs. Steelers are the sixth-most in a single game by a playoff team in the Super Bowl era (since 1966). As a team, Baltimore has rushed for at least 160 yards in seven straight games. They’ve gone over 200 yards in four straight, in which Henry has 97/633/5 rushing. That’s 6.5 YPC. Bills fans don’t need a reminder, but in case you’ve forgotten Week 5, King Derrick Henry went off for 24/199/1 rushing in the Ravens 35-10 win.
James Cook (Buf) – If you’re not using Josh Allen, then Cook is a must play as leverage. I’ll happily burn both of the RBs in the game with the closest spread and highest total (55.5 over/under). This will likely leave me with Saquon Barkley, Lions, and Chiefs RBs for the remaining two rounds.
Already used: Josh Jacobs (GB), Bucky Irving (TB), Kyren Williams (LAR)
Wide Receiver (Start 2, Max of 4)
Amon-Ra St. Brown (Det) – To pair with Goff.
Terry McLaurin (Was) – Easy click for the Commanders-Lions full game stack.
A.J. Brown (Phi) – Game theory is very important this week. If you don’t use Saquon Barkley, I’d highly advise using one of the Eagles pass catchers as leverage. This will be a squeaky wheel game for Brown with 7-10 targets after he was held to one catch last week.
Xavier Worthy (KC) – Over his last three games, Worthy has earned 9, 11, and 11 targets. He also has multiple carries in each of these 3 outings. As a result, the rookie closed out his season with 21/190/2 receiving and 8/50/1 rushing in Weeks 15-17. I’m sure that HC Andy Reid has some plays designed for Worthy after getting two weeks off.
Already used: Justin Jefferson (Min), Puka Nacua (LAR), Nico Collins (Hou)
Tight End (Start 1, Max of 3)
Mark Andrews (Bal) – I’ll save Kelce and LaPorta for the Championship round. The Ravens only needed to pass 22 times last week to beat the Steelers. Their overall play volume should return to normal in this likely high scoring affair vs. Bills. Andrews will be highly involved. WR Zay Flowers (knee) is likely out.
Kicker and DST (Start 1 Each)
Jake Bates (Det) and Chiefs D/ST
Already used: Cam Dicker (LAC), Ravens D/ST
Tom Brolley
126.72 points, 60.88 behind first. I dug myself a major hole by rolling the dice with J.K. Dobbins and quiet performances from Puka Nacua and Jalen McMillan didn’t help.
Quarterback (Start 1, Max of 1)
Josh Allen (Buf) — Allen has thrown for 2+ TD passes in five of his last six games and run for 9 TDs in his last eight contests. He reached 20.2+ FP in 11 of his last 12 games and in 13-of-17 games overall.
Players used: Jayden Daniels
Running Back (Start 2, Max of 4)
Derrick Henry (Bal) — Henry totaled 161+ scrimmage yards and 22+ touches in four straight games. He’s scored 5 TDs in his last three games after going scoreless in four straight games in Weeks 12-16. Buffalo allows the 14th-most adjusted YBC/ATT (2.07) and the 16th-most rushing YPG (95.8) to the position. Henry broke off an 87-yard touchdown on Baltimore’s first play against the Bills in Week 4, which propelled him to 24/199/1 rushing and 3/10/1 receiving.
Jahmyr Gibbs (Det) — Gibbs has reached 11.4+ FP and 73+ scrimmage yards in every game, and he’s been good for 19.3+ FP in seven of his last eight games. Washington allows the third-most adjusted YBC/ATT (2.53) and the fourth-most rushing YPG (113.8) to RBs. Bucky Irving posted 17/77 rushing and 2/6/1 receiving in this matchup last week.
Kyren Williams (LAR) — Williams has scored 1+ TDs in six of his last seven contests after failing to score in three straight games in Weeks 9-12. He’s posted 3/16 receiving in back-to-back games after failing to reach 3 receptions and 16 yards in six straight games in Weeks 11-16. Williams turned in 16/72/1 rushing without a target in this matchup in late November.
Players used: Bucky Irving, J.K. Dobbins
Wide Receiver (Start 2, Max of 4)
Rashod Bateman (Bal) — Zay Flowers will miss another game, which leaves Bateman as Baltimore’s top WR. He’s scored 7 TDs in his last nine contests. The Bills deploy the fourth-highest rate of two-high coverage (55.5%), and he averages 2.44 YPRR and .19 TPRR on 172 routes against the coverage. Buffalo gives up the eighth-most receiving TDs (13) to receivers aligned out wide.
Khalil Shakir (Buf) — Shakir caught all 6 of his targets for 61 yards last week on a team-best 59% route share against the Broncos. The Ravens give up the 13th-most receiving YPG (76.9) and the 10th-fewest YPRR (1.79) to receivers aligned in the slot. Shakir recorded 4/62 receiving on 5 targets in this matchup in late September.
Xavier Worthy (KC) — Worthy hit 19.6+ FP in three consecutive contests entering the postseason and he’s reached 4+ catches in seven straight games and 5+ receptions in five consecutive contests. Worthy notched 7/65/1 receiving on 11 targets against the Texans in Week 16, adding 3/10 rushing.
Players used: Puka Nacua, Nico Collins, Terry McLaurin, Jalen McMillan
Tight End (Start 1, Max of 3)
Sam LaPorta (Det) — LaPorta has reached double-digit FP in six straight games and he’s seen 6+ targets in eight straight games after hitting that mark once in his first eight contests. Washington deploys the sixth-highest rate of man coverage (36%), and he averages 2.55 YPRR and .27 TPRR on 75 routes against man.
Players used: Mark Andrews
Kicker and DST (Start 1 Each)
Jake Bates (Det) & Kansas City Chiefs D/ST
Players used: Joshua Karty, Baltimore Ravens D/ST
