2024 Week 17 WR/CB Fantasy Matchups

With Fantasy Points Data — a project we’ve worked on for nearly two years behind the scenes before launching in 2023 — we wanted to answer one big question: what if we tailored all of the data our team has gathered (hand-charted from our team of experts) directly to the fantasy player?

Based on years of playing season-long fantasy, dynasty, and DFS — and using all the charted data out there to build models and try to gain an advantage in a game where the margins are shrinking — we believe we’ve found where we can do things better. That is the Fantasy Points Data Suite.

Using Fantasy Points Data, I wrote a (FSWA nominated!) weekly column last year called the Mismatch Report. It identified the biggest OL/DL and WR/CB mismatches of the week based on our data.

But now, we have an actual NFL scout, Scott DiBenedetto, breaking down our OL/DL matchups. So I’m going to make this a column focused on some WR/secondary matchups that I’m identifying as either problematic or potentially juicy for fantasy.

WR/CB Tool

Our WR/CB Matchup Tool is sortable with loads of matchup data.

A note on our process: there are very few situations in the NFL in which one receiver will match up with one corner for the vast majority of his routes. So honestly, WR/CB matchups in the traditional sense are perhaps the most overrated form of fantasy analysis.

We aim to do them better: our process breaks down how many routes a receiver runs from a certain alignment, and assigns a weighted score based on how much that receiver is expected to see a given defender based on those alignments. So it will measure how often we expect a receiver to face all defenders in a matchup, not just one particular defender, and weigh a score by those expected percentages.

If I do believe there will be a “shadow CB” situation, I’ll mention it and break down the matchup.

SHADOW ALERT! Broncos CB Patrick Surtain II vs. Bengals WR Tee Higgins

Higgins is the Bengals’ traditional “X” receiver, while Cincinnati typically moves Ja’Marr Chase around more to get more favorable matchups. It’s why we predicted Joey Porter Jr. would shadow Higgins in Week 13, which turned out to be true — Higgins saw Porter’s coverage on 74% of his routes, catching just 1 pass for 16 yards in his primary coverage… though he drew multiple penalties as well.

Surtain is, quite simply, a tougher matchup. For my money, he’s the most difficult individual CB matchup in the league: he hasn’t allowed a touchdown all season long, and he hasn’t allowed any receiver to reach even 30 yards in his primary coverage. That includes matchups with DK Metcalf, Mike Evans, George Pickens, Garrett Wilson, and Jerry Jeudy (with Jameis Winston at QB).

The question is if the Broncos consider Chase such a threat that they’ll shadow him with Surtain when Chase aligns outside — about two-thirds of the time. But they might be more willing to just shut down Higgins (who runs under 20% of his routes from the slot), given that Surtain’s perimeter running mate Riley Moss is expected to return this week from a knee injury.

Given the expected matchup and the fact that Higgins (ankle is dinged up), we have Chase as our top overall WR this week, and Higgins as “merely” a low-end WR1. Those playing Saturday DFS slates might be able to take advantage of a slight ownership discount on Chase, given the general public will likely assume a Surtain shadow on Chase.

SHADOW ALERT! Patriots CB Christian Gonzalez vs. Chargers WR Quentin Johnston

While I personally would consider Johnston to be a very shadow-sensitive WR — i.e., he performs worse in tougher matchups with elite corners — the overall numbers don’t bear that out. In fact, in the four games in which he’s drawn shadow coverage on 60% or more of his routes, he averages 10.4 PPR FPG as opposed to 10.2 FPG in the games in which he hasn’t drawn shadow coverage.

But Johnston — who has 8 TD on the season — has also run exceptionally hot in terms of scoring on busted coverages. In fact, in the primary coverage of the four “shadow” CBs he’s faced this year, Johnston has caught just 3 passes for 15 yards on 7 targets. Joey Porter Jr. and Jarvis Brownlee held him catchless when they were the defenders closest to the ball on him.

It’s possible Gonzalez is the toughest matchup Johnston will draw all season, and given that he’s a secondary target to Ladd McConkey in his own offense, I’m downgrading him to a touchdown-dependent WR4 this week.

All Systems Go

Buccaneers WR Mike Evans vs. Panthers CB Jaycee Horn

I’m not sure this matchup can qualify as a shadow situation, as the only time Horn aligned across from a receiver on more than 60% of his routes was against DeAndre Hopkins in Week 12, when Horn faced Hopkins on two-thirds of his routes and allowed 4/32 on 4 targets in his primary coverage.

But Horn did face Evans on 53.3% of his routes in Week 13, and Evans very much got the better of him, catching 4 passes for 50 yards and a TD on 7 targets when Horn was the closest defender to him. Evans posted 8/118/1 overall in that contest, and now is just 182 yards shy of tying Jerry Rice’s record of 11 straight seasons with 1000 or more receiving yards.

Clearly, the Buccaneers will want to get Evans that record. But more importantly, Tampa is playing for its playoff life, tied with the Falcons for the NFC South division lead. And while that may mean the Bucs don’t force-feed Evans to get him the record… he’s also their best offensive player, and their best chance of beating a surging, confident Panthers team.

Evans is a slam-dunk WR1 in a very beatable matchup.

Packers WRs vs. Vikings DBs

No team surrenders more schedule-adjusted fantasy points per game to opposing WRs than the Vikings over the last five weeks — +11.1. And Brian Flores’ boys are generous to both perimeter WRs (+7.6, most) and slot WRs (+3.7, t-5th-most). So it’s hard to find someone I don’t like for Green Bay here.

But with Christian Watson trending toward missing after getting injured last week, my eye obviously goes to Dontayvion Wicks ($3900 on DraftKings) as my official Cheapskate WR Play of the Week™. And yes, I hate it just as much as you do. But Wicks scored last week as part of his first 10-FP performance since all the way back in Week 7, and if Watson doesn’t play, he’ll be one of the Packers’ top-two outside WR options along with Romeo Doubs.

The big question for DFS players will be how much the $1200 discount from Doubs and the $2000 discount from slot man Jayden Reed will push ownership down to Wicks. If there’s leverage to be created by playing the equally unreliable but more expensive Packers WRs, it might be a good idea to take that route.

But there’s no denying that the matchup is juicy for Wicks. I think Doubs and Reed are also viable high-end WR3s in season-long lineups, presuming Watson doesn’t go.

Pump the Brakes

Eagles and Cowboys WRs vs. The Weather (and their own QBs)

Full disclosure: we do project DaRon Bland to shadow AJ Brown in this matchup, but I’m not sure that matters a whole lot in the long run. What I do think matters is the weather in this matchup: it is supposed to be rainy, with winds of close to 20 MPH.

That’s because — if Jalen Hurts (concussion) doesn’t play in this game, we’ll have a battle between two weak-armed QBs with small hands — Kenny Pickett and Cooper Rush. Remember that Rush threw for 45 yards on 23 pass attempts against these Eagles the last time these two teams met — in an indoor stadium. And given the fact that CeeDee Lamb (shoulder) is looking highly questionable to play in addition to Rush’s struggles, this could be a week where the Cowboys have no choice but to slam Rico Dowdle into eight-man boxes repeatedly.

The good news for Brown is that when Pickett came into the game last week, he threw the ball Brown’s way. Brown’s 72.2% first-read target share in Week 16 ranks as the best mark by any player in any game in Fantasy Points Data history. And in the game against the Commanders last week, Eagles not named Brown or DeVonta Smith combined for 2 targets. The Eagles basically didn’t give Pickett the option of throwing it elsewhere.

I feel better about the Eagles’ receivers in this environment simply because they’re better than the Cowboys’ receivers. But the Eagles also have a better run game than Dallas and certainly will look to get Saquon Barkley closer to 2000 yards (and, perhaps, the single-season rushing record). I think Brown is a low-end WR1 and Smith a boom-bust WR3. If Lamb doesn’t play, no Cowboys WRs can be in a lineup.

49ers CB Deommodore Lenoir vs. Lions WR Amon-Ra St. Brown

No one on planet Earth should convince you to sit ARSB with your fantasy championship on the line, but I would be neglectful if I didn’t mention his brutal draw with Lenoir, who may have established himself this year as the NFL’s premier slot defender.

Two weeks ago, Lenoir was mostly responsible for Cooper Kupp’s goose egg in fantasy quarterfinals. Then, last week, he held cheap DFS lineup filler Malik Washington to just a single catch for 6 yards in his primary coverage. Lenoir is the main reason the 49ers hold opposing slot WRs to -5.7 schedule-adjusted FPG over the last five weeks, the second-fewest in the NFL.

While Lenoir did stymie Kupp, he’s also given up 6 catches and 5 catches, respectively, to Jaxon Smith-Njigba and CeeDee Lamb in individual games. So the best slot receivers in the game have produced in this matchup, even if a bit muted. But Lenoir hasn’t given up a touchdown in his primary coverage all year, so St. Brown’s typically sky-high ceiling is probably lowered in this matchup.