I look forward to the playoffs every season. Not only is the best football played at this time, but for obvious reasons, my workload dwindles significantly, so I have more time to actually enjoy the football.
But I always have another itch to scratch… because fantasy football isn’t over.
Every year, I use MyFantasyLeague to run a one-and-done playoff contest for me and my friends (many of whom you know through Fantasy Points).
The rules are simple.
You pick a starting lineup of 10 players every week: 1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE, 2 RWT FLEX, 1 PK, and 1 DST. PPR scoring with 4 points per TD and -2 per INT. You get 3 points per field goal and 1 per XP, and return TDs (but not yards) count.
You can pick any player from any team for your lineup every week… except you can only use a guy ONCE throughout the playoffs. So if you use Josh Allen this week, you can’t use him again. So you want to both maximize your score any given week… but make sure you have enough good players left for each subsequent week. And we dwindle from 14 teams available in Playoff Week 1… to just 2 for the Super Bowl.
THIS YEAR IN MY POOL, I’VE MADE SCORING IN THE SUPER BOWL 2X… SO IT’S MORE IMPORTANT TO HAVE PLAYERS WHO ADVANCE.
In other words, you have to predict both this week’s games and next week’s games. And much like DFS, you want to avoid being too chalky to create variance on the field. So there’s a lot of strategy involved.
I also pay out weekly prizes in addition to the playoff-long grand prizes.
So, I figured I’d write a quick article about my strategy in this contest for those of you doing something similar. Some of the other guys on staff who participate will follow with their picks, as well.
Joe Dolan
Quarterback (Start 1, Max of 1)
I’ve decided that I cannot miss out on using fantasy’s top two quarterbacks and the league’s top two MVP candidates — Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen — and that means I’ll have to use one this week and one next week (if both teams win, as projected, they’ll play each other, which guarantees one of them is going home next week).
That essentially means I need to then focus on using entirely AFC quarterbacks in the first three rounds of the playoffs. I’ll use one of Jackson or Allen this week, the other next week, and then likely (though not definitely) Patrick Mahomes on championship weekend. That will guarantee I’ll be able to use the NFC’s QB representative in the Super Bowl — when scoring will be worth 2X.
Additionally, I think much of the field will pivot to using Jayden Daniels or Baker Mayfield, so I’ll create some lineup variance.
Because his weaponry is healthier and the projected scoring environment is better, Josh Allen is my pick this week. I just have to hope the Steelers don’t upset the Ravens, so I can use Lamar next week.
Also Considered: Lamar Jackson
Running Back (Start 2, Max of 4)
Our guy Scott DiBenedetto, a former NFL scout, ranked the Buccaneers’ offensive line the best in the playoffs… and the Commanders’ defensive line the worst in the playoffs. That’s enough for me to eat the chalk and play Bucky Irving.
The Packers are dropping like flies, with WR Christian Watson (knee) the latest to go down. They’ll try to lean on Josh Jacobs and the run game to shorten the action and keep the Eagles’ offense off the field. If the Packers score a touchdown, Jacobs is the best bet to do so.
Also Considered: Kyren Williams, Joe Mixon, JK Dobbins
Wide Receiver (Start 2, Max of 4)
I’m going to double-dip in the Vikings-Rams game here. I’m not missing an opportunity to use Puka Nacua or Justin Jefferson, and one of those guys is guaranteed to go home this week. The good news is that they each have formidable sidekicks I can use in next week’s game for whichever team advances.
I think the Buccaneers beat the Commanders this week, so I’ll get risky and not use either Tampa receiver, but I can’t deny that Terry McLaurin has an absolutely fantastic matchup in a game with the highest projected total on the Wild Card slate. Lock him in.
I have one receiver spot left. I wanted to see if I could create some variance by including Courtland Sutton instead of Nico Collins in my lineup, but I just couldn’t do it. I think Collins’ matchup against the Chargers is schematically better. I’d have gone with Sutton if the Bills had played more man coverage.
Also Considered: Courtland Sutton, George Pickens
Tight End (Start 1, Max of 3)
The Ravens will be down Zay Flowers this week, so I’m expecting more 2-TE sets from them. So I’ll try to get a player who will slip through the cracks into my lineup.
Isaiah Likely enters the playoffs having scored in three of his last five games — including once against Pittsburgh. Likely has 7 catches for 104 yards and that score against the Steelers this year.
Also Considered: Pat Freiermuth, Zach Ertz
Kicker and DST (Start 1 Each)
The Commanders are the projected losers with the highest expected point total this week. That sounds like a good reason to use Zane Gonzalez.
I’m also using the Commanders Defense. In 2022 I followed the same logic, writing that “I think the Dolphins lose big, but Josh Allen is prone to sacks and turnovers, which is all I’m looking for at this stage.” Miami’s D/ST scored 17 fantasy points in a loss. Well, this year, I think the Commanders lose, but Baker Mayfield is prone to sacks and turnovers.
Graham Barfield
The Ravens are favored by -10. The Bills are favored by -8.5. My plan is to save all key players from those two teams for the next round.
Washington-Tampa Bay and Minnesota-Los Angeles are the two toughest games to pick the winner, and they’re the two best game environments. I’m leaning in.
Quarterback (Start 1, Max of 1)
Jayden Daniels (Was) — The Commanders-Buccaneers showdown is the hardest game to pick, and also has the best game environment (50.5 over/under). It makes QB in one and done leagues an easy call: I’ll leave all of the best top-seeded AFC/NFC QBs on the board for the Divisional and Championship rounds.
Also considered: Baker Mayfield (TB)
Running Back (Start 2, Max of 4)
Bucky Irving (TB) – The top RB on the slate in the best game. It’s a best possible matchup. Washington allowed a league-high 5.65 yards per carry off of man/gap blocking concepts this season. The Buccaneers use man/gap blocking concepts on 55% of Irving’s carries.
Josh Jacobs (GB) – This feels like a no-brainer. Jacobs was RB4 in fantasy points per game from Weeks 7-17 with 21.2 PPR FPG. That was just 0.5 of a FP behind RB2 Bijan Robinson (21.7 FPG) in this span. We should see Jacobs play a full-blown bell cow role with 75-80% of the snaps here.
Kyren Williams (LAR) – TD machine with 31 total TDs across his 28 starts dating back to last year.
Wide Receiver (Start 2, Max of 4)
Puka Nacua (LAR) – The best WR on the slate in a landslide. In his nine full starts over the back half of the season, Nacua exploded for 74/944/3 receiving (21.8 FPG – WR2).
Justin Jefferson (Min) – Vikings-Rams is a near coin toss game by our projections (24.2 Vikings - 22.9 Rams). Why not lean into the uncertainty, and just play both wideouts? This mini-stack of Nacua-Jefferson might be what you need for a big score.
Nico Collins (Hou) – I’m on the Chargers to win, so I view Collins as a must.
Also considered: Ladd McConkey (LAC), Jordan Addison (Min), Terry McLaurin (Was)
Tight End (Start 1, Max of 3)
T.J. Hockenson (Min) – This is an awesome spot. The Rams allowed the fourth-most yards per game (64.8) to opposing tight ends.
Also considered: Zach Ertz (Was) – For the stack with Daniels.
Kicker and DST (Start 1 Each)
Cameron Dicker (LAC) and Ravens D/ST
Tom Brolley
Quarterback (Start 1, Max of 1)
Jayden Daniels (Was) — He finished as the QB6 with 21.5 FPG in the regular season by accounting for multiple TDs in the final five full games. The Buccaneers give up the third-most passing YPG (261.6) and the fifth-most FPG (20.4) to the position, and this contest has the highest total on the board.
Running Back (Start 2, Max of 4)
Bucky Irving (TB) — He continued to pull away from Rachaad White by posting a season-high 70% snap share last week while White failed to register a single carry or target. Washington allows the most adjusted YBC/ATT (2.59), and the fourth-most rushing YPG (113.8) to RBs.
J.K. Dobbins (LAC) — Dobbins has reached 20+ touches and 75+ scrimmage yards in back-to-back games since returning from his four-week knee injury. The Texans allowed 14.6+ FP and 76+ scrimmage yards to individual RBs in three straight games since their bye before running into the lowly Titans last week.
Wide Receiver (Start 2, Max of 4)
Puka Nacua (LAR) — Nacua has reached 5+ receptions, 8+ targets, and 13.6+ FP in nine of his 10 games since returning to the field. The Vikings deploy the highest rate of two-high coverage (63.8%), and he averages 2.49 YPRR and .30 TPRR on 111 routes against the coverage. Minnesota gives up the second-most receiving YPG (120.0) and the eighth-most YPRR (2.11) to receivers aligned out wide.
Nico Collins (Hou) — Houston’s offense will run through Collins this week, and he posted 5/38/1 receiving on 8 routes last week. The Chargers deploy two-high coverage at the third-highest rate (58.8%), and he averages 2.38 YPRR and .27 TPRR on 192 routes against the look. Jakobi Meyers lit the Chargers up for 9/123/1 receiving in the season finale.
Terry McLaurin (Was) — I’m stacking McLaurin with Daniels in the Sunday night contest. He’s reached 14.4+ FP in 13 of his last 15 games and 4+ receptions and 52+ yards in 13 of his last 16 contests. The Buccaneers deploy the highest rate of Cover 3, and he averages 3.22 YPRR and .21 TPRR on 154 routes against the coverage.
Jalen McMillan (TB) — I wanted to get a piece of the Buccaneers passing attack since I have Daniels and McLaurin. McMillan has reached 4+ receptions, 51+ yards, 1+ TD, and 16.7+ FP in five consecutive games. Washington deploys the sixth-highest rate of man coverage (36.1%), and he averages 2.02 YPRR and .21 TPRR on 100 routes against man.
Tight End (Start 1, Max of 3)
Mark Andrews (Bal) — Andrews has scored in six straight games and 11 times in his last 12 contests overall. His role in the passing game could grow with Zay Flowers expected to miss this week. The Steelers deploy the highest rate of single-high coverage (65.9%), and Andrews averages 2.14 YPRR and .21 TPRR on 188 routes against the coverage.
Kicker and DST (Start 1 Each)
Joshua Karty (LAR) & Baltimore Ravens D/ST
