Week 8 Fantasy Football Start 'Em, Sit 'Em

Welcome to Week 8 Start ‘Em, Sit ‘Em.

This game-by-game article breaks down every player that is relevant for fantasy football. As always, please use our projections to make your start/sit decisions every week. The analysis in this piece provides color – and a lot of stats – behind the projections.

Unless stated otherwise, all of the data in this article is from Fantasy Points Data and specifically curated from the Data Suite. Our collection team has charted every play from every game over the last three seasons, and we will have fresh, weekly data imported into the tools on Monday after the games.

The Start’ Em, Sit ‘Em key

• Must Start — Don’t take them out of your lineup, even if there is a fire.

• Start ‘Em — The top-12 at QB and TE; top-20 plays at RB; top-25 at WR.

• FLEX Plays — All of the best RB2/WR3 plays.

• Stream ‘Em — The best one-week plays at QB and TE for streaming off of the waiver wire.

• Sit ‘Em — Don’t play them in your lineups. This could be due to a poor role, matchup, or performance.

• Stash ‘Em — Step 1: Hold them on your bench. Step 2: Profit.

Good luck this week!

Minnesota Vikings at Los Angeles Rams

Must Start

Kyren Williams – In his 18 games as the Rams starter, Williams has scored 24 touchdowns. His snap rate hasn’t dipped below 79% in a single game this season.

Justin Jefferson

Aaron Jones – Played through a sore hamstring last week and still shredded for 116 scrimmage yards and a TD against the Lions. Excluding the Week 5 game when he left early injured, Jones is the RB8 in FPG (19.0).

Cooper Kupp – Returned to full practice and is off of the injury report. If he will be dealt by the November 5 deadline, the Rams will try and feature Kupp to show that he’s back to 100% after a high ankle injury cost him four games. The Vikings are giving up the second-most yards per game (102.2) to opposing slot receivers. Kupp has run 69 routes this season, and he was the first-read target on 52% of them (league-high).

Start ‘Em

Sam Darnold – Has finished as a top-15 scoring QB in 5-of-6 starts with three top-10 performances. Darnold is tied with Jayden Daniels for fourth-best in passing yards per attempt (8.4). His aggression is underrated; Darnold is top-8 in average depth of throw and deep ball attempt rate. The Rams are an ideal matchup to return to him as a low-end QB1. Los Angeles is allowing the fifth-most passing FP per dropback (0.42).

FLEX Plays

Jordan Addison – After leaving Week 1 early and then missing the next two games with an ankle injury, Addison has 9/174/1 receiving (on 16 targets) and a 7-yard rushing TD over his last three contests. Jefferson is the first-read on 39% of the targets, but the Vikings have condensed their targets around these two. Addison is earning 25% of the first reads. He’s in play as a WR3/FLEX, like usual.

Puka Nacua – Returned to limited practice this week (knee).

Sit ‘Em

TJ Hockenson – Still limited in practice as he continues to ramp up.

Matthew Stafford – Kupp’s return boosts Stafford’s projection a bit. We’re still looking for some touchdowns here. Stafford’s 1.5% TD is miles behind his base rate (5.3% TD) in 2021-23.

Tutu Atwell – Quietly leads the Rams in targets (29) with a 20/284/0 receiving result over their last four games. Atwell’s 33% first-read target share easily leads the team over Parkinson (19%) in this span. Kupp is back, but Atwell has carved out a role for himself here.

Ty Chandler

Colby Parkinson

Jordan Whittington – Out with a shoulder injury.

Demarcus Robinson

Jalen Nailor

Stash ‘Em

Blake Corum

Baltimore Ravens at Cleveland Browns

Must Start

Lamar Jackson – Should be the runaway MVP as we near the midway point. He’s the only fantasy QB to finish inside of the top-12 weekly scorers in every start this season. Lamar has finished inside of the top-5 QBs five times already. After a slow start for his standard, Jackson is on fire as a passer. Over his last five games, he’s completed 72% of his throws for 258 passing yards per game (10.5 YPA!!) with 10 TDs and 1 INT. He’s taken just nine sacks all season.

Derrick Henry – At his current pace (124.7 yards per game), Henry is tracking towards 2,119 rushing yards. Eric Dickerson’s 40-year-long record (2,105 yards in 16 games) is in jeopardy.

David Njoku – Took over as the Browns' lead target last week, with Amari Cooper in Buffalo now. Njoku set a season-high in routes (82% share) and targets (14) for a 10/76/1 receiving result. Now finally past an ankle injury that cost him three games early in the year, this type of usage sets him up to breakout as a potential top-5 weekly option at a thin position moving forward. The Browns' self-inflicted nightmare with Deshaun Watson has come to an unceremonious end. Jameis Winston at least gives them a chance. Njoku is Must Start against a Ravens defense that’s allowing the second-most yards per game (76.6) to tight ends.

Start ‘Em

Zay Flowers – Dealing with an ankle injury. Flowers didn’t get a single target or carry after he sustained the injury getting tackled after a 19-yard run on Monday against the Buccaneers. After leading the league in Weeks 1-6 with a 47% man coverage frequency, Cleveland cut their man coverage usage way down to 17% last week against Cincinnati. It’ll be interesting to see if they take a similar approach this week. For what it’s worth, the Browns used man-to-man on 46% and 50% of Jackson’s dropbacks in their two meetings last season. Flowers (29.5% share) and Rashod Bateman (25%) have dominated first-read targets when facing man coverage this season.

FLEX Plays

Cedric Tillman and Jerry Jeudy – Over the last three weeks, Jeudy has three receptions for 69 yards. He’s been an afterthought after a decent start in Weeks 1-4, when he saw at least six targets in every game (18/197/1 receiving). The switch to Winston breathes some life into his dormant fantasy stock. All four of Jeudy’s targets last week came on the final drive with Winston. Meanwhile, second-year WR Cedric Tillman tied Njoku for the Browns lead in first-read target share (31%) last week, which led to new career highs in targets (12) and receiving (8/81). Tillman meshes well with Winston’s skill set. Both of these Browns receivers are on the board as WR3/FLEX options against a Ravens secondary that is giving up the second-most schedule-adjusted FPG above average (+8.9) to opposing wide receivers.

Rashod Bateman – Has emerged as a larger part of the offense now. Bateman has 12/250/2 receiving over the last three weeks, and he’d get a boost in projections if Flowers (ankle) is limited or out. Bateman earns 25% of the first-read targets when facing man coverage, but that drops to just 10.8% when he sees zone.

Sit ‘Em

Nick Chubb – Cleveland struggled to run the ball effectively all day against the Bengals, but it was great to see Chubb back out on the field. He got a goal-line TD to save an otherwise ugly day (11/22/1 rushing, 1/10 receiving – 3 targets). As expected, the Browns eased him in a bit. Pierre Strong (51%) led the backfield in snaps over Chubb (35%). This obviously won’t continue in the long run. Chubb will hopefully merit weekly RB2 consideration based on his role at the end of the season. He’s a shaky fantasy option up against the Ravens league-best run defense (3.1 YPC allowed). A league-high 70% of the runs against Baltimore are generating negative EPA (per nflfastr).

Mark Andrews – Has rejoined the Ravens passing offense over the last three weeks with 11/162/3 receiving (on 13 targets). It’s not all good news, though. Andrews has still run fewer routes (49% participation) than Likely (59%) in their last three games. He’s still not even close to the full-time role that he’s used to. This is also a bad matchup. Cleveland is erasing opposing tight ends. The Browns are giving up the sixth-fewest yards per game (34.6) and second-fewest schedule-adjusted FPG below average (-5.2) to the position.

Jameis Winston – If this weren’t a full slate and we had 2-4 teams out on bye, I’d be seriously entertaining writing up Winston as a viable streamer. After losing Deshaun Watson (Achilles) and Dorian Thompson-Robinson (thumb), Winston entered the game last week and immediately led a TD drive on the Browns final possession. This offense just needs competent QB play to get out of the basement. Only the Dolphins (1.05) are averaging fewer points scored per possession than the Browns (1.15). You can’t ask for a better matchup than this Ravens secondary that’s allowing a league-high 308.4 yards per game.

Isaiah Likely – Saw 12 targets in Week 1. Since then, he’s earned 18 total targets (11/113/2 receiving result) over his last six games.

Justice Hill

Jerome Ford – Out (hamstring).

Elijah Moore

Indianapolis Colts at Houston Texans

Must Start

Joe Mixon – In the three games that he’s finished, Mixon has tallied RB2, RB2, and RB4 scoring weeks as the Texans bell cow. He’s racked up 178, 132, and 124 scrimmage yards in these three starts, including his Week 1 hammer (30/159/1 rushing) against the Colts. Things haven’t improved for this run defense since then. Indianapolis has allowed at least 120 rushing yards in five out of their seven games, and they’ve given up 77/400/3 rushing (5.2 YPC) over their last three contests.

Start ‘Em

Stefon Diggs – Has finished as a top-25 scoring WR in PPR leagues in 5-of-7 games. Diggs’ average depth of target has shot up to 12.1 yards downfield in his last two games since Collins has been sidelined. It’s a big change. Diggs’ aDOT was 7.1 yards, with him largely working out of the slot and underneath in Weeks 1-5 when Collins was healthy. He’s run 65% of his routes aligned out wide in his last two outings after being in the slot 61% of the time in Weeks 1-5.

Tank Dell – There were a number of no-show performances by receivers last week, but none were more surprising than Dell’s goose egg on four targets. He dropped a TD that could have saved his day for fantasy, but Stroud’s poor performance and the Texans' extremely run-heavy approach worked against Dell last week. The good news is that the targets are extremely condensed now. Dell (37.5%) and Diggs (34.4%) have dominated Stroud’s first-read targets over the last two weeks with Collins out.

C.J. Stroud – Over his last two games against the Patriots and Packers without Nico Collins (hamstring), Stroud has completed just 58% of his throws for just 278 yards (5.4 YPA). I’d be very concerned about Stroud’s outlook if this weren’t a great matchup. The Colts are generating pressure on just 25% of their opponents' dropbacks, the second-lowest rate and ahead of only the Panthers (24.3% pressure rate). Stroud has played against the Colts and their Cover-3 zone three times, and he’s completed 71% of his throws for 294 passing yards per game (8.4 YPA) and a 6:0 TD-to-INT ratio. Of course, he had his guy Collins in every one of those outings.

Jonathan Taylor – Returned to full practice on Thursday-Friday. Taylor has missed the last three games while nursing a high ankle injury to the same leg that required surgery after the 2022 season. Taylor will likely be close to his full role since he’s had three weeks to get right, and he was practicing in full this week. It’s not a great matchup. Houston held Taylor to 16/41/1 rushing back in Week 1, and they’re allowing the eighth-fewest rushing yards per game (79.7) this season.

Sit ‘Em

Anthony Richardson – The time off for two games didn’t help settle Richardson. Yes, it was great to see him healthy enough for a season-high 14/56 rushing. OC Shane Steichen will continue to involve him on designed runs. He was terrible as a passer last week. Just 54% of Richardson’s passes against the Dolphins were catchable. An unbelievable 29.7% of his throws have been charted as off-target this season. That’s insanely bad. For reference, Bo Nix is second-worst (22.3% off-target throws) among the 32 QBs with at least 100 dropbacks this season.

Dalton Schultz – Has not finished better than TE19 in a single game this season. It’s an amazing matchup for opposing tight ends, but Schultz hasn’t been involved enough. He’s earned just 12.5% of the first-read targets over the last two weeks.

Josh Downs and Michael Pittman – In the four full games that Richardson has played, Pittman has 4/31, 3/21, 4/36, and 3/63 receiving in his game log. Downs earned three targets last week, and he caught his only target that was actually catchable, for 3 yards.

Alec Pierce

Tyler Goodson and Trey Sermon

Green Bay Packers at Jacksonville Jaguars

Must Start

Jordan Love – With scoring weeks of QB11, QB2, QB15, QB3, and QB10 this season, Love has finished as a top-15 scoring QB in fantasy football and thrown for at least 2 TDs in 14 of his last 15 games. He leads all QBs in touchdown rate (8.4) and passing yards per game (270.2). The Jaguars have allowed a top-12 scoring QB in seven straight games to open the year.

Start ‘Em

Jayden Reed – Set a new season-high in route share (86%) last week, but it didn’t translate to fantasy production (2/10 receiving). You’re going right back to Reed as a borderline WR1. Over his last 13 regular season games with Love under center, Reed has tallied up 64/853/8 receiving (on 84 targets) while adding 15/154/3 rushing. That’s 17.7 PPR points per game. The Jaguars are allowing the third-most schedule-adjusted FPG above average (+4.5) to slot receivers.

Josh Jacobs – Locked in as your RB2.

Brian Thomas – In his first seven games as a rookie, Thomas is the WR17 in fantasy points per game (15.3). Trevor Lawrence only needed to throw it 20 times last week against the Patriots, so we should see the Jaguars' passing volume normalize here.

Evan Engram – Since returning to the lineup over the last two weeks, Engram leads the Jaguars in total targets (15) over Thomas (11). Engram has either tied or led the team in first-read target share in all three games that he’s played in this season. Green Bay is allowing the fourth-most schedule-adjusted FPG above average (+3.8) and the seventh-most yards per game (54.9) to tight ends.

Tucker Kraft – Over the last month, Kraft has emerged as the Packers' full-time starting tight end. His 76% route share is sixth-highest among TEs in this span. However, Kraft is only 19th among TEs in target share (13.2%), with Reed, Doubs, Wicks, and Watson all competing for targets here. Kraft will likely never be a high-volume option, but Love is playing at an extremely high level, and this should be a high-scoring game. I see no reason to go away from Kraft as a lower-end TE1. Jacksonville has been hammered by Colts, Bears, and Patriots TEs for 22/245/3 receiving on 27 targets over the last three weeks.

FLEX Plays

Romeo Doubs – In their four full games together, Doubs leads the Packers in first-read target share (26%) over Reed (20%), Wicks (17%), and Watson (9%). Doubs still hasn’t scored a TD with Love yet, but he’s quietly enjoying his most efficient season yet. Doubs leads the team in yards per route run (2.46) in these four games with Reed, Wicks, and Watson available. This is obviously a home-run matchup. Jacksonville is allowing a league-high 124.9 yards per game to receivers aligned out wide.

Tank Bigsby – Just made the most of his opportunity with Travis Etienne (hamstring) sidelined. Bigsby got a career-high 26 carries and tallied up 118 yards and 2 TDs as a result. Among the 42 RBs with 50 or more attempts this season, Bigsby is first in yards after contact per carry (4.4) and a solid 13th in missed tackles forced per carry (0.21). By comparison, Travis Etienne is averaging 2.6 yards after contact and 0.14 MTF on a per-carry basis. This backfield is headed toward a 1A/1B committee, with Bigsby as the lead on early downs and Etienne playing the majority of passing situations. Once again, D’Ernest Johnson ran more routes (9 to 6) and saw more targets (3 to 1) than Bigsby last week.

Sit ‘Em

Travis Etienne – Didn’t play last week due to a hamstring injury.

Christian Kirk – As expected, he continued his downward trend now that Evan Engram is back healthy. In three games with Engram on the field, Kirk has just 1/30, 3/39, and 1/24 receiving. He has earned just 4, 6, and 3 targets in these games. Brian Thomas’ continuing breakout and Engram overtaking most of the slot targets have crushed Kirk’s role.

Dontayvion Wicks and Christian Watson – This is a great matchup if you want to chase a TD here. However, these two continue to split snaps. In the four games that the Packers had Reed, Doubs, Wicks, and Watson available – it has been the latter two receivers working as part-time players. Doubs (79%) and Reed (76%) lead the way in route share, followed by Watson (52%) and Wicks (39%).

Gabe Davis

Trevor Lawrence – Has finished as a top-10 scoring QB in fantasy football just six times in his last 23 games played (26%).

Tennessee Titans at Detroit Lions

Must Start

Amon-Ra St. Brown – Has earned at least 32% of the targets in four out of his last five games.

Jahmyr Gibbs – One of the few players with an extremely high floor in fantasy football. Gibbs has RB14, RB9, RB14, RB12, RB22, and RB1 scoring weeks, as he’s tallied at least 74 scrimmage yards in six straight games. The Titans are playing very strong run defense (3.45 YPC allowed | third-fewest), but this run game is good enough to go off against anyone.

Start ‘Em

David Montgomery – Has scored 21 TDs in 22 full games with the Lions (including playoffs). Montgomery still has the edge in carries inside-the-10 over Gibbs (13 to 8).

Jared Goff – His passing volume is the only concern here. The Lions are massive 11-point favorites. After a slow start in Weeks 1-2, Goff has turned in four straight incredibly efficient performances. He hasn’t needed to throw much – he has 23, 18, 25, and 25 pass attempts in his last four games – but he has torched opposing secondaries for 76-of-91 passing, 1,086 yards (11.9 YPA), 9 TD, and 1 INT in this span. Goff has finished as a top-10 scoring QB in three straight games. Josh Allen just threw for 323 yards on 33 attempts (9.8 YPA) last week against the Titans.

Tony Pollard – Set a season-high in snaps (88%) last week with Tyjae Spears (hamstring) sidelined. Spears is out for another game, so go right back to Pollard as a volume-based RB2. It’s a huge boost. In their four full contests together, Pollard leads this backfield in carries (61 to 27) by a wide margin. However, Spears has cut in significantly on passing downs (12 targets), which hurts Pollard’s floor and ceiling (15 targets).

Sit ‘Em

Calvin Ridley – He didn’t practice on Wednesday (foot). DeAndre Hopkins is now a Chief, and Treylon Burks (knee) is on I.R. It was more of the same from Ridley last week. He earned nine targets, but only 5 were actually catchable from Rudolph. Ridley dropped two passes and ended with 3/42 receiving against the Bills.

Sam LaPorta – WR Jameson Williams is facing a two-game suspension, which at least allows LaPorta to find a footing in this offense. Last week marked his sixth straight game with 5 or fewer targets. OC Ben Johnson is a terrific playcaller and designer, but it’s been downright bizarre to see a player of LaPorta’s talent not maximized here. LaPorta’s first-read target share is 8.3%, 32nd among TEs. For reference, the Chiefs #2 TE Noah Gray (8.9%) is earning slightly more first reads.

Tyjae Spears

Mason Rudolph

Tyler Boyd

Tim Patrick

Kalif Raymond

Atlanta Falcons at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Must Start

Bijan Robinson – That’s more like it. Robinson is fully over a minor midseason hamstring pull, and has racked up 105 and 143 scrimmage yards and 3 rushing TDs against the Panthers and Seahawks. This is another amazing spot. Tampa Bay’s once-vaunted run defense has regressed severely. The Buccaneers are allowing 5.3 YPC (third-most) and a league-high 8.6% explosive run rate (of 15+ yards).

Drake London – Up to WR9 in PPR fantasy points per game (17.6). London has seen at least 30% of the first-read targets in six straight games. The Buccaneers are allowing the fifth-most schedule-adjusted FPG above average (+4.8) to opposing receivers.

Start ‘Em

Cade Otton – The biggest beneficiary of Godwin’s absence. Otton’s role was already decent, and now he has a chance to lead the team in targets with Evans sidelined. Over the last five weeks, Otton is tied with George Kittle and Jake Ferguson for the fourth-most targets per game (7.0) among TEs. He led the Buccaneers in first-read targets (24% share) last week.

Kyle Pitts – Since he was left for dead after his Week 4 goose egg, Pitts has 17/223 receiving on 22 targets. If we’re looking for positive trends, Pitts’ target share hit a season-high 25% last week, and it was his first time leading the team in targets (9) in a game. He continues to get inline, traditional TE usage, and that’s a good thing! We want Pitts earning targets against linebackers – not defensive backs. Pitts runs 41% of his routes inline, which is way up from 14% last season. The Buccaneers allow 59.1 yards per game to tight ends (fourth-most). Tampa Bay is giving up 2.49 yards per route run to inline tight ends – only the Los Angeles Rams (3.23) and Baltimore Ravens (2.63) are worse.

FLEX Plays

Rachaad White and Bucky Irving – In our first look at this new, “three-headed” backfield, White led the way in snaps (47%) over Irving (36%) and Sean Tucker (19%). White (15.2 XFP) held a narrow lead over Irving (14.2) by expected PPR points. Interestingly, Irving out-snapped White 5 to 2 inside-the-10. Once again, both of these runners are on the board as higher-end RB2/FLEX options. I expect the Buccaneers to lean far more run-heavy without Evans and Godwin. Irving didn’t practice on Wednesday-Thursday because of a toe injury, but he’s expected to play.

Darnell Mooney – Even with Pitts more involved lately, Mooney is still easily the secondary target here. Over the last three weeks, London leads the Falcons in first-read targets (34%) with Mooney (29%) not too far behind.

Jalen McMillan and Trey Palmer – After he missed two games with a concussion, Trey Palmer ran more routes (39 to 28) than McMillan last week, but it was the rookie who earned the looks. McMillan earned eight targets, while Palmer saw just 3. Neither receiver did much – McMillan had 3/15 receiving while Palmer hauled in one pass for 16 yards. These two have plenty of opportunities available, but I’m leaning towards McMillan as the better long-term bet for his versatility. After injuries have cleaned out the position, Palmer and McMillan both project as low-end WR3. Atlanta is allowing the sixth-most schedule-adjusted FPG above average to opposing receivers (+4.4).

Sit ‘Em

Baker Mayfield – Mike Evans (hamstring) is looking at a multi-week absence while Chris Godwin (ankle) is out for the season. Mayfield was one of the best values in fantasy football to open the year with an incredible six top-8 scoring weeks among QBs in his first 7 games, but losing his top two wideouts in the same week is brutal. No Evans or Godwin severely dings his projection. I also expect the Buccaneers to lean far more run-heavy without Evans. Tampa Bay is third in pass rate over expectation (+6.2%). They posted their lowest PROE of the season (-0.8%) last week.

Kirk Cousins – Atlanta has toned back their passing in their last two games with pass rates of -4% and -9.8% under expectation. Cousins has finished outside of the top-20 scoring QBs in 5-of-7 games. He’s locked into SuperFlex lineups, but we’re looking for more upside in 1-QB leagues.

Ray-Ray McCloud

Sterling Shepard

Sean Tucker – Will become fantasy-relevant if Irving or White miss time.

Stash ‘Em

Tyler Allgeier – The top handcuff in fantasy.

New York Jets at New England Patriots

Must Start

Breece Hall – Back to being a bell cow. Check out these splits…

Over the last two weeks (with new OC Todd Downing):

– 84% snaps (ranks RB2)

– 83% of team carries (RB1)

– 67% route share (RB1)

In Weeks 1-5:

– 74% snaps (RB7)

– 58% carry share (RB16)

– 52% route share (RB8)

Hall has RB6 (21.9 FP) and RB5 (26.1) finishes in his last two outings to show for it.

Start ‘Em

Davante Adams and Garrett Wilson – In his first game as a Jet, Adams was not limited. Adams ran a route on 90% of the pass plays last week, and earned six targets (3/30 receiving). As expected, Garrett Wilson lined up in the slot on 51% of his routes with Adams added. That tied his season-high rate in routes run from the slot. Wilson earned one more first-read target (27% share to 23%) than Adams last week. They’re both high-end WR2 plays up against a Patriots secondary that’s giving up the seventh-most yards per game (187.1) to receivers aligned out wide or in the slot. Allen Lazard (chest) is doubtful.

Stream ‘Em

Hunter Henry – Over the last two weeks with Maye under center, Henry leads the Patriots in targets (12) for a 11/133/1 receiving result. This should be no surprise, but Henry’s 2.18 yards per route run is up significantly with Maye compared to Brissett (1.41 YPRR). Austin Hooper also has seven targets (5/37 receiving) over the last two weeks as Maye tries to run this offense through the middle of the field. The Jets allowed 7/63/1 to Bills TEs two weeks ago while Steelers tight ends just combined for 6/87 receiving last week.

Sit ‘Em

Rhamondre Stevenson – The Patriots run game is stuck in mud behind the league’s worst offensive line. The Patriots' best lineman, LT Vederian Lowe (ankle), missed another game and they already lost vet C David Andrews (shoulder) for the season. It wouldn’t matter if Derrick Henry were running behind this line – yards are impossible to find. New England is dead last in yards before contact (1.05) over the last month. Stevenson was stonewalled (7/13 rushing) against Jacksonville. He missed Week 6 with a foot injury, so he likely wasn’t 100% healthy. However, we have a disturbing four-game sample in which the Patriots continue to take Stevenson off of the field on passing downs to compound matters. After he ran a route on 70% of the pass plays in Weeks 1-2, Stevenson’s route share has been cut down to 29%, 44%, 30%, and 38% in his last four games. That’s not going to get it done. JaMycal Hasty (5/31/1 receiving) has run a route on at least 30% of the Patriots' passing plays in two straight games.

Aaron Rodgers – SuperFlex only.

Allen Lazard – Hit a season-low 60% of the routes last week. Doubtful to play (chest).

Antonio Gibson

Demario Douglas

Kayshon Boutte

Kendrick Bourne

Tyler Conklin

Ja’Lynn Polk – Out (concussion).

Stash ‘Em

Drake Maye – We loved him as a streamer last week against the Jaguars, and he came through for his second game with 20+ FP. Maye has only added 8/56 rushing through two starts – there is untapped upside here. The rookie has thrown for 519 passing yards in two starts after Jacoby Brissett just averaged a pathetic 139.2 passing yards per game. The Jets have regressed this season, but they are still not a target for fantasy football. Only Denver (0.22) allows fewer passing fantasy points per dropback than New York (0.24). I’m stashing Maye for the stretch run.

Braelon Allen – Even though his role has been cut back, Allen remains an extremely valuable handcuff.

Arizona Cardinals at Miami Dolphins

Must Start

Tyreek Hill – Dropped a classic 7/130/1 receiving hammer in Week 1 with Tua, but has since been bottled up for just 14/140/0 over his last four games. It was a mix of bad QB play and bad coaching. Under no circumstances should Hill ever leave a game with one catch for 8 yards, unless he leaves injured. Hill has 131 receptions, 1,991 yards, and 15 TDs (on 191 targets) in his last 18 games with Tua. That’s 23.3 PPR fantasy points per game.

Trey McBride – All he does is earn targets. McBride has earned 130 targets over his last 16 games since becoming a full-time player (99/977/3 receiving result | 13.4 PPR FPG).

Start ‘Em

De’Von Achane – In their two games together (Week 1 and 7), Achane leads Mostert in snaps (53% to 38%), carries (25 to 17), route share (54% to 28%), and targets (10 to 3). It’s a blowout by expected fantasy points (17.0 PPR XFP per game) for Achane over Mostert (7.3 XFP/G). Bullish. This type of usage gives Achane a runway for a monster second half. The Dolphins already have their bye week behind them. Achane got five designed targets (7/76 receiving result) back in Week 1 with Tua. Arizona is allowing the seventh-most rushing yards per game (114.4).

James Conner – Death, taxes, and Conner paying off ADP as a value RB2.

Jaylen Waddle – After four straight weeks on the sit list, we’re back to starting Waddle as a WR2. As always, Waddle is forced to do more with less here. Tyreek Hill earned 36% of the first-read targets compared to Waddle, down at 18% back in Week 1, but Waddle still shredded for 5/109 receiving on five targets.

Tua Tagovailoa – Welcome back. Miami is dead last in points scored per possession (1.0), and 27th in passing offense (179.5 yards per game). Tua legitimately should have thrown for 400+ yards in Week 1 against the Jaguars' awful secondary, and he left more yards on the field in Week 2 against the Titans (145 yards on 25 attempts, 1 TD, 3 INT), before he, unfortunately, suffered another concussion. Arizona will drop back and play a bunch of two-high safety shell coverage to keep Hill and Waddle in front of them. Tua faced 2-hi on a league-high 60% of his dropbacks last season, and that has stuck year-over-year (57% of Miami’s dropbacks have been vs. 2-hi in 2024). Tua is likely going to need to knock the rust off, but this is objectively an amazing spot – at home against the league’s worst secondary by passing yards per attempt allowed (8.3).

Kyler Murray – Murray finished as the QB5 in fantasy last week, thanks to 6/64/1 on the ground. His 44-yard TD was ridiculous, but it’s the only thing working for Murray in fantasy. This game has shootout appeal, and Murray’s rushing upside keeps him on the radar, but don't make any mistakes here. Arizona’s passing offense just hasn’t been good enough. Murray has been under 6.7 passing yards per attempt in six out of 7 outings, with his lone game above that mark coming against the Rams (12.7 YPA). His 190.1 passing yards per game are easily a career-low. Miami is allowing a league-low 164.8 passing yards per game. The Dolphins just blitzed the pants off of Anthony Richardson, sending extra rushers on 52% of his dropbacks. Might a similar game plan be in store? Murray is fifth-worst in yards per attempt (5.2) when blitzed.

FLEX Plays

Marvin Harrison – Harrison is averaging 2.75 yards per route run and has earned 30% of the first-read targets against single high safety coverage, but that dips considerably when the Cardinals get a two-high safety look (0.92 YPRR | 22% first-read TS). Miami has deployed one-high safety coverage on 62% and 69% of their opponents' dropbacks over their last two games. In Week 5, they played a ton of Cover-1 man (41%). In Week 7, Miami blitzed a ton, and they sat back in Cover-3 (52%) against Indianapolis. Murray needs to step up, but we have some positive signal to return to Harrison as a boom-or-bust WR2/FLEX.

Stream ‘Em

Jonnu Smith – His role has grown in four-straight games with a season-high 68% route share last week, which resulted in 7/96/1 receiving. I mean no disrespect, but Smith can’t be the best part of the Dolphins passing attack again. The increased participation has my interest in Smith as a low-end TE1 moving forward. Arizona is allowing the eighth-most yards per game to tight ends (54.4).

Sit ‘Em

Raheem Mostert – Now that Achane has the clear lead in this backfield, Mostert is a TD-dependent FLEX. He and Achane have split red-zone snaps (9 to 4 – in favor of Mostert).

Greg Dortch

Michael Wilson

Stash ‘Em

Jaylen Wright

Philadelphia Eagles at Cincinnati Bengals

Must Start

Saquon Barkley – Has cleared 116 scrimmage yards in five out of 6 games. Barkley is averaging a career-best 6.1 yards per touch, which is a shade higher than his rookie season (5.8 YPT), in which he led the league in total scrimmage yards (2,028).

A.J. Brown – In just three games, Brown (108 yards per game) trails only Nico Collins (113.4 YPG) in receiving.

Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins – The Bengals are airing it out at the second-highest rate (+7.6% above expectation), Burrow is balling out, and the results have been excellent for fantasy. Over the last five weeks, Higgins leads the Bengals in targets (43) and has 29/341/3 receiving (16.2 PPR FPG). Chase has turned his 36 looks into a stellar 29/523/6 receiving (23.7 FPG). Higgins is earning more first-reads (38% share) than Chase (28%). Update: Higgins sustained a quad injury late in practice on Friday. If he plays, Higgins is more of a WR2 with this risk.

Jalen Hurts – Dating back to the beginning of last season, Hurts has finished as a top-10 scoring QB in fantasy football at an unbelievably consistent rate — 18 of his last 22 starts (82%).

Joe Burrow – Started slow (QB29 in Week 1), but Burrow has since ripped QB6, QB6, QB11, QB3, QB13, and QB14 scoring weeks in fantasy. Over the last six weeks, Burrow has completed 70% of his throws for 265.8 yards per game (8.1 YPA) with 14 TDs and just 2 INTs. This is pretty close to the Super Bowl-level of play we saw from Burrow back in 2021. The Eagles allowed at least 240 yards and 2 TDs to Love, Cousins, and Mayfield in Weeks 1-4 but haven’t been tested in their last two outings against Deshaun Watson and Daniel Jones.

Start ‘Em

DeVonta Smith – The Eagles only needed to throw the ball 14 times to dust the Giants last week, which left Smith behind (one catch, -2 yards). This has the makings of a similar target split that we see in Miami. Brown dominates first-read targets like Tyreek Hill. In their three games together, Brown has earned a whopping 41% of the first-read looks. Smith is like Jaylen Waddle, with a 24% share of first-reads.

FLEX Plays

Chase Brown – Over the last two weeks, Brown has flipped this backfield in his favor. Brown has 25 carries to Zack Moss’ 12, he’s earned one more target (5 to 4), and he’s out-snapped Moss by a 60% to 48% margin. The Bengals use both Brown and Moss on the field for a few plays. Most importantly, Brown has overtaken Moss in the red-zone, out-snapping him 7 to 0 inside-the-20. He’s an exciting RB2/FLEX option once again. Philadelphia is allowing 4.9 YPC (eighth-most).

Sit ‘Em

Dallas Goedert – Out (hamstring).

Zack Moss

Andrei Iosivas – Would be in play as a WR3/FLEX if Higgins (quad) is out.

Mike Gesicki

Grant Calcaterra

Stash ‘Em

Erick All – In deeper TE premium leagues. All’s route participation has increased in five-straight games (22% > 28% > 30% > 35% > 46%). The rookie has earned 13 targets in this span, which is four more than Gesicki.

New Orleans Saints at Los Angeles Chargers (4:05p ET)

Start ‘Em

Alvin Kamara – Apparently, he’s been playing through a broken hand and broken ribs. What a beast. Kamara has been dragged down by Rattler, but this might be the healthiest he’s been in a while after getting 10 days off. Kamara is more of a high-end RB2 without Carr. The Saints have scored points on just 23% of their possessions with Rattler, which is half their scoring rate with Carr (51% possessions ending in a score).

J.K. Dobbins – It was a disappointing Week 7 for Dobbins in an ideal matchup, but he gets a chance to redeem himself here as home favorites (-7.5) against the Saints reeling run defense. New Orleans is allowing a league-high 5.6 YPC, and they’ve allowed over 110 rushing yards in five straight games.

FLEX Plays

Ladd McConkey – Just like last week, this is a terrific matchup for McConkey once again. The Saints are getting crushed for the second-most yards per route run (2.2) by opposing slot receivers. McConkey hit a season-high 91% route share last week, but he didn’t have the production to show for it (5/46 receiving).

Sit ‘Em

Chris Olave – Missed Week 7 with a concussion. Olave returned to a limited practice on Wednesday. Derek Carr (oblique) is set to miss another game, which leaves Olave as a shaky WR3. Spencer Rattler has completed 63% of his throws for a grim 5.5 passing yards per attempt on his 86 dropbacks. He’s already taken 11 sacks. The Chargers are playing the third-most two-high safety coverage (60%) to keep everything in front of them, and it’s helping to limit opposing outside wide receivers to the seventh-fewest yards per game (74).

Will Dissly – With Hayden Hurst (groin) sidelined last week, Dissly stepped up for 8/81 receiving on a team-high 11 targets. Dissly’s route share jumped to a season-high 73% last week after he hadn’t been involved on more than 50% of the pass plays in a single game prior to Week 7. If Hurst misses another game, then Dissly is back in play as a desperation streamer. Dissly didn’t practice on Wednesday (shoulder).

Quentin Johnston – Dealing with an ankle injury.

Justin Herbert

Taysom Hill – Returned to practice on Wednesday after he missed Weeks 4-7 with cracked ribs.

Josh Palmer

Juwan Johnson

Spencer Rattler – Fire up Chargers D/ST.

Mason Tipton

Bub Means

Cedrick Wilson – Out (hip).

Kendre Miller

Stash ‘Em

Kimani Vidal – A great speculative stash. Gus Edwards is on I.R.

Buffalo Bills at Seattle Seahawks (4:05p ET)

Must Start

Josh Allen – In their first game with Amari Cooper, the Bills ramped up their pass rate to a week-high +14% over expected. It was easily a season-high. Allen’s 33 pass attempts were season-high as well. Wheels up.

Ken Walker – Was a bit more limited than usual last week (48% of snaps) due to an illness. It didn’t matter, though. Walker was terrific against Atlanta, turning his 16 touches into 93 scrimmage yards and 2 TDs. He has at least two receptions in every game this season – which is huge. Walker had 2 or more catches in just 7 of 15 games last year. In his five games this season, he’s finished as the PPR RB9, RB2, RB14, RB9, and RB9 on a weekly basis.

Start ‘Em

James Cook – After missing Week 6 with a toe injury, Cook returned last week, and he split snaps (54%) with both Ray Davis (22%) and Ty Johnson (22%). Cook typically doesn’t see more than 60% of the snaps, but Davis’ recent play has earned him a much larger role. The biggest takeaway from the early stages of Cook’s season is that the Bills trust him as their goal-line back over Josh Allen. It’s a big change. In his six games played, Cook leads Buffalo in carries (7) over Allen (3) and touchdowns (3 to 2) inside-the-10. Cook is a strong RB2 against a Seattle run defense that’s getting cracked for 5.2 YPC (fourth-most).

Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Tyler Lockett – D.K. Metcalf (knee) is likely out, so we will see Seattle’s targets condense around JSN and Lockett. In their seven games, Smith-Njigba holds a tiny lead in first-read target share (21%) over Lockett (19%). This matchup certainly favors JSN. The Bills play the fourth-most two-high safety coverage (55% frequency), forcing most passes toward the shallow areas in the middle of the field. The Bills are allowing the eighth-most receiving yards per game to slot wideouts (86), but they’re holding opposing outside receivers to the third-fewest YPG (64.3).

Amari Cooper – He only ran 12 routes last week, but that was all he needed to turn in 4/66/1 receiving on five targets. Cooper earned 20% of the first reads last week. What will that ramp up to now that he’s had two full weeks to learn the playbook? Seattle has gotten hammered for 36/456/4 receiving (107.5 PPR points) over the last three weeks by Giants, 49ers, and Falcons receivers.

FLEX Plays

Khalil Shakir

Sit ‘Em

D.K. Metcalf – Dealing with a knee injury.

Dalton Kincaid – Across seven games this season, Kincaid ranks a lowly 19th in route share (65%) and 11th in targets per game (5.1) among tight ends. That’s just not good enough. In their five full games together, Shakir (26) has earned more targets than Kincaid (23). Secondary TE Dawson Knox (ankle) is questionable.

Noah Fant

Zach Charbonnet

Keon Coleman

Jake Bobo

Curtis Samuel

Stash ‘Em

Ray Davis

Chicago Bears at Washington Commanders (4:25p ET)

Sunday Update: The Commanders might have Jayden Daniels after all. If he’s able to suit up, you don’t need me to tell you that he’s Must Start, even if he’s a little bit limited.

Start ‘Em

D’Andre Swift – After being left for dead early in the season, Swift has surged for 165, 120, and 119 scrimmage yards and a TD in three straight games before their bye. Swift is a borderline must-start RB1 in this spot. Washington is allowing 5.2 YPC (fourth-most).

D.J. Moore – In the four games that the Bears have their trio of receivers active, Moore leads the way in routes, targets, and air yards. Moore has received just one more first-read target (28% share) than Keenan Allen (26%). Meanwhile, the rookie Rome Odunze (14% first-read share) is a distant third option.

Brian Robinson – In his first game back after missing Week 6 with a knee injury, Robinson split snaps (41%) with Ekeler (37%) and Jeremy McNichols (27%) in a game that Washington dominated from start to finish. Robinson’s involvement will tick back up now that he’s healthier. Chicago is far easier to run on than throw against. The Bears are giving up 4.7 YPC (11th-most).

FLEX Plays

Terry McLaurin – We’re potentially looking at Marcus Mariota under center with Daniels (ribs) beat up. The good news is that McLaurin caught all five of his targets for 95 yards with Mariota last week. This is a far tougher matchup, though. Bears CB Jaylon Johnson is playing at an extremely high level. Chicago is holding opposing receivers to -6.1 schedule-adjusted FPG below average (fifth-fewest).

Keenan Allen – Washington has played two-high safety coverage over 50% of the time in five of their last 6 games because their cornerbacks can’t be trusted on an island. In their four games together, Moore and Allen have combined for a whopping 62% of Caleb Williams’ first-read targets against two-high coverages. Moore has 6/66/1 receiving on 47 routes against two-high coverages, while Allen has 6/48/2 receiving (41 routes).

Stream ‘Em

Caleb Williams – After a horrific start in Weeks 1-2, Williams really improved in his last four starts before the bye. He should continue to build momentum here against a burnable Commanders secondary. Washington is allowing the second-most passing FP per dropback (0.46). Only Carolina (0.47) is worse. Over his last four outings, Williams has completed 70% of his throws for 262.5 passing yards per game (7.9 YPA) with 9 TDs to 3 INTs. He won’t get any designed carries, but his scrambling ability does give him a little bit of additional upside. He has at least four carries in 5 out of 6 starts. With three top-10 scoring performances among fantasy QBs in his last 4 games, I’m trusting Williams as a streamer in 1-QB leagues this week, and I believe this Bears passing offense is a decent buy low right now.

Cole Kmet – The only game he’s earned more than 5 targets was against the Colts back in Week 3 when Keenan Allen was out. Chicago’s targets aren’t condensed and will leave Kmet as a lower-end TE1 all year. However, this is an awesome matchup to roll him out as a streamer. Washington has allowed an efficient 17/194/2 receiving (on 22 targets) to Browns, Ravens, and Panthers tight ends over the last three weeks.

Sit ‘Em

Rome Odunze

Zach Ertz

Austin Ekeler

Noah Brown

Marcus Mariota – QB Jayden Daniels (ribs) is extremely questionable to play.

Stash ‘Em

Roschon Johnson

Kansas City Chiefs at Las Vegas Raiders (4:25p ET)

Must Start

Brock Bowers – In four games without Davante Adams, the rookie leads the Raiders in targets (39) for a strong 29/280/1 receiving result (16.1 PPR FPG). The Chiefs deploy two-high safety shell coverage on 65% of their opponents' dropbacks (second-highest rate), which forces most passes to the shallow areas in the middle of the field. As a result, Kansas City is giving up a league-high 7.2 receptions and 83.5 yards per game to tight ends.

Kareem Hunt – In his three games as the Chiefs starting RB, Hunt has piled up 16, 28, and 24 touches with 80 or more scrimmage yards in every outing. Most importantly, Hunt has all of the TD equity in this backfield. He leads the Chiefs in snaps (6) inside-the-10 over Perine (1) in their last three games. Las Vegas is getting rinsed for 4.95 YPC (sixth-most).

Start ‘Em

Travis Kelce

FLEX Plays

Xavier Worthy – Was overthrown for a 69-yard TD last week where he got behind the defense. It didn’t result in usable production for fantasy (3/19 receiving), but Worthy’s usage out of the Chiefs bye week was incredibly positive. He led the team in targets (8) and first-reads (35% share) over Kelce (18%). Worthy also hit a new season-high route share (75%) last week. His role was worth 16.2 expected PPR points, but he only scored 5.4 FP. I’m buying. Hopefully, DeAndre Hopkins’ addition shifts some coverage attention away from Worthy.

Jakobi Meyers – Has missed Weeks 6-7 with an ankle injury. Meyers returned to full practice on Friday. If he’s able to suit up, then he’s back on the WR3/FLEX radar. Meyers might be the most underrated receiver in fantasy football, and he’s clearly going to see more targets with Adams officially gone. In his last three games, Meyers earned 9, 10, and 9 targets for a 18/183/1 receiving result (14.8 PPR FPG).

Alexander Mattison – Maintained control of this backfield for a third-straight game. In fact, all that Mattison has done is earn a larger role. His snap rate has increased over the last month (33% > 57% > 67% > 71%). The Raiders won’t score many touchdowns this season, but Mattison will stay involved as a volume-based RB2. This is not a great matchup at all. The Raiders are huge underdogs (+10) against a shutdown Chiefs run defense. Kansas City is allowing the second-fewest rushing yards per game (56.2).

Sit ‘Em

Patrick Mahomes – Has finished as the QB15, QB14, QB17, QB17, QB20, and QB16 in weekly scoring in his six starts this season. In fact, Mahomes has finished as a top-10 scoring QB in fantasy football just once in his last 15 games, dating back to last year. His 3.2 TD% is a career-low.

DeAndre Hopkins – Will be limited in his first game as a Chief since he just got the playbook. Hopkins isn’t washed. His skills may be diminished from his prime, but Hopkins was objectively a better receiver this season than his former teammate Calvin Ridley. Despite being limited by a knee injury, Hopkins posted a slightly better separation win rate (15%) and efficiency (1.89 yards per route run) on his routes aligned out wide than Ridley (13% win rate | 1.31 YPRR).

Gardner Minshew – Fire up Chiefs D/ST.

Tre Tucker

Mecole Hardman

Zamir White

Carolina Panthers at Denver Broncos (4:25p ET)

Start ‘Em

Javonte Williams – Delivered his best game of the season (111 scrimmage yards, 2 TDs) in a near-perfect matchup last week. Guess what? This spot is even better. Carolina is getting trucked for a league-high 133.3 rushing yards per game. Jaleel McLaughlin will continue to mix in, but this is his backfield for now. Williams has been on the field for at least 60% of the snaps in four straight games.

Chuba Hubbard – The switch back to Bryce Young dings his projection, but I don’t see how you can bench Hubbard as an RB2 here. Jonathon Brooks is still ramping up. Hubbard set a new season-high in snaps (84%) last week – it was his second straight game with at least 80% of the snaps. He has at least 17 touches in five straight contests.

Sit ‘Em

Diontae Johnson – Ruled out (ribs). He might get traded next week. The Panthers put a pathetic showing together against a beatable Commanders secondary on Sunday. Andy Dalton melted down early with a pick-6 and it was over from then on. Carolina only managed 43 plays of offense, 10 first downs, and 93 passing yards against Washington. Johnson was dragged down by the trainwreck and was held to one 17-yard catch on 3 targets against Washington. He looked like a value WR2 in Dalton’s first few starts, but he’s an extremely low-floor WR3 here.

Courtland Sutton – Heading into last week, Sutton was WR15 in first read target share (33%) and also WR15 by expected PPR points per game (15.2). He got his cardio in against the Saints last Thursday – Sutton ran 23 routes and wasn’t targeted. Troy Franklin just set season-highs in routes (64% share) and targets (6). This is an incredible matchup, but I’m admittedly spooked by last week’s usage. Nix is showing signs of improvement, but Sutton is still dealing with some of the least accurate QB play in the league. Just 59% of his targets have been catchable, and that’s the third-lowest rate among wide receivers.

Bo Nix – SuperFlex only.

Bryce Young – Will get his first start since Week 2 with Andy Dalton (thumb) injured. Across 18 career starts, Young is averaging a pathetic 173.4 passing yards per game (5.4 YPA) with 12 total TDs and 19 turnovers. He was terrible in Weeks 1-2 with a -12.2% completion rate under expected, the worst rate among the 45 QBs with at least 25 dropbacks this season. Denver is going to blitz Young all game long. The Broncos send extra rushers on 39% of opponents’ dropbacks (second-highest rate). Broncos stud CB Patrick Surtain returned to full practice on Wednesday after missing Week 6 on the short week.

Ja’Tavion Sanders – Has built some positive momentum with 11/110 receiving on 13 targets over the last two weeks.

Jaleel McLaughlin

Xavier Legette

Stash ‘Em

Troy Franklin – Worth a cheap FAAB bid in deeper leagues after injuries have cleaned out the fantasy football landscape for receivers. The rookie just season-highs in routes (64% share) and targets (6).

Dallas Cowboys at San Francisco 49ers (SNF)

Must Start

CeeDee Lamb – Through his first six games, Lamb is the WR14 in PPR FPG (15.6). Lamb is not playing up to his usual standard, but this is an unbelievable matchup right out of the bye. The 49ers are giving up a league-high 2.3 yards per route run to opposing slot receivers.

Jordan Mason

George Kittle – The biggest beneficiary from Aiyuk’s injury. Kittle’s volume is secure for the rest of the season. Kittle has four or more receptions in every single game this season. Last year, he recorded 4+ receptions in just six out of his 16 games played.

Jake Ferguson – Tied with Kittle for the fourth-most TE targets per game (6.8). The 49ers didn’t face a good tight end until Week 5 vs. Arizona. Since then, they’ve allowed an efficient 23/219/1 receiving (on 28 targets) to Cardinals, Seahawks, and Chiefs tight ends.

Start ‘Em

Deebo Samuel – The 49ers injury reporting has been an absolute clown show all year. The team announced just moments before the game last week that Deebo was dealing with an “illness.” It turns out that “illness” was pneumonia, he had fluid in his lungs, and needed to be taken to the hospital. He left the game after four snaps. In five full games, Deebo has 20/335/1 receiving (on 32 targets) and he’s added 19/51/1 rushing. I can’t take him out of lineups as a high upside WR2.

Brock Purdy – At least he had the two goal-line rushing touchdowns to save a dreadful passing day last week. The Chiefs defense is awesome – again. Dating back to the end of 2022, Purdy has finished as a top-15 scoring QB in weekly output in 21-of-28 games as the 49ers starter. That’s 75%. Purdy is scrambling way more (4.9 carries, 22 rushing yards per game), which adds to his floor in fantasy. Aiyuk’s loss looms large, but this is clearly a good matchup. Dallas is allowing the third-most passing FP (0.45) per dropback. Cowboys EDGE rusher Micah Parsons (ankle) will miss another game.

Dak Prescott – Buy low. Dallas’ remaining schedule is white-hot, particularly in the fantasy playoffs. Dak and this passing offense basically doesn’t have a “hard” matchup remaining on the docket. From Weeks 14-17, the Cowboys face the Bengals (5th-easiest), Panthers (3rd-easiest), Buccaneers (fourth-easiest), and Eagles (10th-hardest | likely shootout). The figures in parenthesis are how easy the matchup is by schedule adjusted fantasy points allowed to the position. The Cowboys defense has regressed, and it’s resulted in way more pass attempts for Dak. His touchdown rate (3.6) and YPA (7.2) aren’t as good as last year’s figures (6.1 TD% | 7.7 YPA), but this remaining schedule paints some optimism that things turn around. Dak is a low-end QB1 against a middle of the pack 49ers secondary.

FLEX Plays

Jalen Tolbert – Veteran WR Brandin Cooks (knee) is on injured reserve, and he will miss two more games at a minimum. Over his last two outings without Cooks on the field, Tolbert has quietly become a great secondary target with 11/130/1 receiving (on 13 targets). The strong overall volume here will keep Tolbert on the board as a WR3. Dak Prescott (37.3) trails only Geno Smith (39.9) in pass attempts per game.

Ricky Pearsall – Led the 49ers in routes (81% share) for 3/22 receiving result (on 5 targets) in his first game of his rookie season. Deebo was only feeling well enough to run two routes last week, but Pearsall was second in first-read targets (20% share) behind Kittle (30%). Veteran WR Jauan Jennings (hip) is out, which clears the path for another full-time role for Pearsall.

Sit ‘Em

Rico Dowdle – After building a little bit of momentum, the Cowboys cut down Dowdle’s role in their last game before the bye. His 28% snap rate was a season-low. Dallas obviously got stomped by Detroit, but it’s a concern that Ezekiel Elliott (8) mixed in for more carries than Dowdle (5). It’s also a mild concern that another veteran RB Dalvin Cook just got elevated to the active roster this week. The 49ers pass defense is overrated, but their run defense certainly isn’t. San Francisco is allowing just 3.8 YPC (sixth-fewest).

New York Giants at Pittsburgh Steelers (MNF)

Start ‘Em

Malik Nabers – His quarterback melted down last week, which resulted in Nabers’ worst game of his rookie season (4/41 receiving on eight targets). We’re close to seeing Drew Lock. Yes, losing LT Andrew Thomas is absolutely massive, and Jones was under duress all game last week. That’s the problem, though. Everything has to be perfect for Jones to succeed. He will never elevate the talent around him. Jones has worked the short and intermediate areas well, but he can’t complete a pass down the field. The only quarterback with a worse completion rate on throws of 20+ air yards is Jacoby Brissett (14%). Jones has completed a pathetic 4-of-21 passes of 20+ air yards (19%). Nabers gets a tough matchup against Steelers top CB Joey Porter Jr.

George Pickens – The quarterback change from Fields to Wilson benefits Pickens long-term. Their chemistry was far from perfect last week, and yet, Pickens still exploded for 5/111/1 receiving. OC Arthur Smith has wisely made Pickens the only show in town. This entire passing attack revolves around him. Last week, Pickens received 40% of the first-read targets and 70% (!!) of the team’s passing air yards. Pickens has earned at least 30% of the first-read targets in six out of 7 games – outside of Week 5 where he was in the doghouse vs. Dallas. The Steelers remained very run-heavy with Wilson (-6.8% pass rate under expected), but Pickens is dominating looks. That’s alpha WR1 stuff.

FLEX Plays

Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren – As expected, the Steelers went with more of a committee backfield in Week 7 now that Jaylen Warren is healthy from hamstring/knee injuries that he sustained in August-September. The duo split snaps down the middle (50% apiece) and Harris took more carries (21 to 12), but it was Warren who had the more valuable role by expected fantasy points (16.4 XFP vs. 11.9 XFP for Harris). This is due to Warren’s involvement in the passing game (18 routes, 3 targets) over Harris (7 routes, 0 targets). I fully expect that this compartmentalized split will continue. Harris and Warren also split carries (3 to 2 – in favor of Harris) inside-the-10. This is an awesome spot. The Giants are giving up the second-most YPC (5.3) to running backs.

Wan’Dale Robinson – The PPR scam has finished as the WR31, WR34, WR35, WR17, WR16, WR38, and WR41 in his seven games this season.

Tyrone Tracy – In our first look at this new backfield split last week, Tracy widely outsnapped Singletary by a 67% to 22% margin. It was partly due to game-script, of course. The Giants got stomped by the Eagles and never had a chance to run the ball. The duo did split carries (6 to 5 – in favor of Tracy). And, the rookie was on the field for the only 2 plays that the Giants ran in the red-zone. Not Singletary. This backfield is headed towards a compartmentalized split, but Tracy will have the more valuable role for fantasy. Tracy is a low-end FLEX option thanks in large part to his role in the pass game. Pittsburgh will smother their rushing attack. The Steelers are allowing just 3.5 YPC (fourth-fewest).

Sit ‘Em

Russell Wilson – SuperFlex only.

Daniel Jones

Devin Singletary

Pat Freiermuth

Darius Slayton

Calvin Austin