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Cooper Kupp: High Ankle
Kupp has been out the average amount of time you’d expect for a WR with a high ankle sprain. Even though it isn’t a slam dunk, it feels like he’s ready to go despite the Week 8 TNF tilt.
After a high ankle sprain WRs see a massive dip in production > 30%. Here’s the catch: a large chunk of that sample are WRs who try to return after 0-1 weeks, and none of those guys are named Cooper Kupp.
My insistence that Kupp was not washed back in July was proven correct in Week 1 when he tied his career high in catches. A not-washed guy like Kupp on an offense without any receiving threats should lead to his usual volume. Start Kupp and live with the results.
Projected Return: Week 7
Jordan Mason: AC Joint
Mason hit the 4-day median and 11-day average of returning after fully practicing on Friday. Now, there’s no reason to go overboard in DFS, though, since he’s still highly volatile due to reinjury risk.
Projected Return: Week 7
Anthony Richardson: Oblique/Hip
A-Rich should be back in the lineup this week and whether or not you should start him will be up to how he performs. Coming off the injury this of course makes matters complicated but that’s primarily due to re-injury risk. I’d feel most comfortable with A-Rich in tournaments and SF leagues. I’ll take the wait and see approach in single QB leagues for now.
James Cook (toe) and Ray Davis (calf)
Cook look ready to roll but likely will split time with Davis who is also dealing with a calf issue. Neither of these guys are really “safe” until we see which of them is closer to healthy.
Projected Return: Week 7
De’Von Achane: Concussion
Given the reasonable Week Winner Rate, concussions don’t seem to impact RBs significantly after concussion. There’s still about a 5% chance of reinjury, though.
Projected Return: Week 7
Rhamondre Stevenson: Foot
A reasonable 22% Week Winner rate and 50% Stud Rate after a non-high ankle or foot injury gives Rhamondre a relatively safe floor. As with WRs, RBs seem to play through ankle/foot
issues successfully.
Projected Return: Week 7
Aaron Jones: Hamstring
According to Rapsheet, Jones is “likely” to play. That doesn’t mean he’s safe. Slide him into your season-long leagues if you’re desperate, but he’s not a must-start considering his age and the already high 25% reinjury risk with these injuries. Tread lightly and fade him in cash.
Projected Return: Week 7
Nick Chubb: Knee
For those of you who purchased the Injury Prone Draft Guide and Playbook, this excerpt will sound familiar and described Chubb’s situation most accurately: “Chubb suffered a multi-ligament left knee injury in Week 2, 2023 that required two surgeries. The first surgery was Sept. 29. However, the time-limiting factor is primarily the ACL surgery, which was performed on Nov. 4, 2023. It is not uncommon to wait between surgeries, though it isn’t necessarily a good thing.
You might recall that Nick Chubb tore everything except his ACL and MCL in his left knee while in college in 2015. Now, he suffered another dislocation with additional damage in the same knee. The hill that Chubb has to climb just to simply get back in shape and play again at 28 years old is one thing.
Chubb has been an iron man, missing just seven games in his first five seasons. Unfortunately, he only meets a few traits to be considered an outlier performer post-ACL surgery:
Minimum of 9 months to rehab - yay!
High NFL draft capital - yay!
26 year or younger - boo
Minimal complexity of injury - double boo
Top 5% athleticism scores - close, but triple boo
Projected pass-catching work and high touch volume - boo again
Look, there are simply some guys who are truly built differently, and Chubb is one of those guys. For that reason, I won’t speak in absolutes and give Chubb an arbitrary 5-10% chance to come back and return as a back-end fantasy RB1. Those might seem like long odds, but 30% of NFL RBs never return after an ACL tear.
If Chubb has no complications, his ceiling is slightly higher than Javonte Williams last season (11.2 FPG – RB31). Lastly, the average RB post ACL in year one sees a 12% dip in fantasy production. Shaving that off of Chubb’s last 3 seasons would have made him Josh Jacobs (RB18) in 2023 - not exactly a league winner.”
Counterpoint: The Browns have nothing else and now Jerome Ford is out. I don’t see the Browns overdoing it in the volume department with Chubb but I do think we’ll see enough this week to find out what the former Bulldog can do. And if there’ any player in the league who can make me eat my words, its Nicholas Jamaal Chubb.
Projected Return: Week 7
Marvin Harrison Jr. and Malik Nabers
Maserati Marv is back and practicing is the good news. The bad news is he’s had a tough go at it this season as a whole and now faces the Chargers who are top 6 in defensive DVOA. Add in the fact that from 2018 to 2023 NFL WRs off a concussion saw a massive 34% dip in FF production and you get a solid fade of Harrison where you can swing it.
Projected Return: Week 7
Mike Evans
Evans has been limited all week until he practiced on Saturday. Evans has this history of hamstring strains but the reality is that you need to start him in most leagues. However be aware that he is at high risk to reinjure the hamstring. This is an issue he’s faced since 2019 and as he gets older, bouncing back gets harder.
In DFS he’s no more than a tournament play. In season-long leagues, gamers should consider moving him but only if you receive another top 20 player at the position.
Projected Return: Week 7
Travis Etienne
Etienne has been limited all week in practice but is likely to play without a setback. Still, that backfield situation is volatile and with receiving work dropping in RBs after a hamstring strain, there’s a case that Etienne should be benched in some leagues depending on your depth.
Projected Return: Week 7-8
Jerome Ford
Projected Return: Week 9-10
Projected Returns
Derek Carr: Oblique
Projected Return: Week 8-9
Advice: N/A
Devin Singletary: Groin
Projected Return: Week 7
Advice: Start Tyrone Tracy
Luke Musgrave: Ankle
Projected Return: On IR
Advice: Start Tucker Kraft
Rachaad White: Foot
Projected Return: Week 9
Advice: Start Bucky Irving
Khalil Shakir: Ankle
Projected Return: Week 7-8
Advice: N/A
Nico Collins: Hamstring
Projected Return: Week 11-12
Jonathan Taylor: High Ankle
Projected Return: Week 8-9
Advice: Target
Rashee Rice: LCL
Advice: Drop
Projected Return: 2025
Isiah Pacheco: Ankle
Projected Return: Week 12
Advice: Target later in season as playoff contender
Puka Nacua: PCL
Projected Return: Week 9-10
Advice: Target at a discount, avoid overpaying
Christian McCaffrey: Achilles/calf
Projected Return: Week 8 or 10
Advice: Target at a discount, avoid overpaying
Zamir White: Groin
Projected Return: Week 7
Advice: N/A
