Welcome to Week 6 Start ‘Em, Sit ‘Em.
This game-by-game article breaks down every player that is relevant for fantasy football. As always, please use our projections to make your start/sit decisions every week. The analysis in this piece provides color – and a lot of stats – behind the projections.
Unless stated otherwise, all of the data in this article is from Fantasy Points Data and specifically curated from the Data Suite. Our collection team has charted every play from every game over the last three seasons, and we will have fresh, weekly data imported into the tools on Monday after the games.
The Start’ Em, Sit ‘Em key
Must Start — Don’t take them out of your lineup, even if there is a fire.
Start ‘Em — The top-12 at QB and TE; top-20 plays at RB; top-25 at WR.
FLEX Plays — All of the best RB2/WR3 plays.
Stream ‘Em — The best one-week plays at QB and TE for streaming off of the waiver wire.
Sit ‘Em — Don’t play them in your lineups. This could be due to a poor role, matchup, or performance.
Stash ‘Em — Step 1: Hold them on your bench. Step 2: Profit. (See: Jordan Mason, Week 1)
Good luck this week!
San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks
Must Start
Ken Walker – He only took five handoffs in Seattle’s pass-heavy gameplan last week, but Walker saw career-best usage in the passing game with 7/57 receiving on eight targets. Walker is running a route on 51% of the Seahawks pass plays, and that’s a significant increase compared to last year (31%). This type of usage and targets was the skeleton key for Walker. With this big boost, he’s the RB6 in expected PPR points per game (17.1).
Jordan Mason – Mason is coming off the worst game of his amazing run after a fumble late cost the 49ers badly vs. the Cardinals. On the plus side, he’s just getting more efficient and comfortable in this scheme as a runner with back-to-back games above 6+ yards per touch. Injuries have really hurt the Seahawks front-seven recently, and they’ve been whacked for 48/251/3 rushing (5.23 YPC) over the last two weeks against the Lions and Giants.
D.K. Metcalf – After a three-game run with 100+ yards, Metcalf cooled off to just 4/55 receiving on seven targets last week. Metcalf easily leads the Seahawks in first-reads (27% share) over JSN (20%) and Lockett (18%). Keep firing him up as a lower-end WR1 attached to the most pass-heavy offense in the game.
George Kittle – Leads all TEs in FPG (15.9) and he’s third in targets per game (7.3). Kittle has finished as a top-10 scoring TE in all four games this season.
Start ‘Em
Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk – This looks like another spot for Brandon Aiyuk to get loose, just like last week. The Seahawks play one-high safety coverage 59% of the time (seventh-highest rate), and defenses that play a high rate of Cover-1 and Cover-3 favor Aiyuk. In his four games together with Samuel active, Aiyuk is averaging a team-best 2.87 yards per route run vs. one-high looks, but that dips to 1.34 YPRR against two-high safety coverages. I wonder if Seattle plays more 2-hi shell coverage this week with CB Riq Woolen (ankle) out. You’re playing both as WR2.
Brock Purdy – He’s coming off the worst game of his season so far, but this is a prime bounce-back spot against a Seattle defense that has spent the last two weeks getting cleaned out by Jared Goff (19.5 FP) and Daniel Jones (22.1 FP).
Geno Smith – The touchdowns are coming… right!? Geno Smith has finished as a top-12 scoring QB in fantasy football in 4-of-5 games this season while only throwing one TD in each game. Geno leads the league in passing yards (293.2 per game) but ranks a lowly 29th in TD% (2.5). This is nearly 2% lower than his career average as a Seahawk (4.4% TD). Seattle’s pass rate over expectation has been stuck above +10% in four straight games. He remains a low-end QB1.
FLEX Plays
Jaxon Smith-Njigba – The good news is that Seattle has become the most pass-heavy team in the league, and that will drive the strong volume overall here. Outside of the game vs. Patriots in Week 2 where he went off for 12/117 receiving on deeper downfield routes, JSN is still largely stuck as a receiver working the shallow areas. His average depth of target was 10.6 yards in Week 2. In his four other games this season [excluding Week 2], JSN’s aDOT has actually been lower (5.4 yards) than it was in his rookie season (6.4 aDOT). This is a great matchup with the 49ers giving up a league-high 2.72 yards per route run to slot receivers.
Sit ‘Em
Tyler Lockett – Running fewer routes (75% share) than JSN (85%). He’s a distant third on the team in targets (29) behind Metcalf (42) and JSN (40).
Jauan Jennings – His routes have been cut down over the last two weeks to 63%.
Zach Charbonnet
Noah Fant
Jacksonville Jaguars at Chicago Bears (London | 9:30a ET kickoff)
Must Start
D.J. Moore – In three games with Allen and Odunze together, Moore leads the Bears WR trio in routes (88% share), targets (22), first-reads (28% share), and end zone targets (4). This is a clear blowup spot against a Jaguars secondary that’s giving up the most yards per game (153.4) to opposing outside wide receivers.
Start ‘Em
D’Andre Swift – After being left for dead, Swift has exploded for 286 scrimmage yards and 2 TDs in two ideal matchups over the last two weeks. Roschon Johnson will continue to cut in as the changeup piece, but Swift’s snaps have returned back to normal at 67% and 68% in Weeks 4-5. This is a tougher matchup on the ground, but the Jaguars continue to give up tons of dump-offs underneath (6.6 RB receptions allowed per game | second-most).
Brian Thomas – It was an ideal matchup for Thomas to exploit and he absolutely delivered with a 5/122/1 receiving hammer on a team-high eight targets. Over the last four weeks, Thomas leads the Jaguars in targets (30) over Christian Kirk (29), Gabe Davis (22), and Brenton Strange (19). This was the third straight game where he’s earned at least eight looks. This is a tougher matchup with CB Jaylon Johnson patrolling the perimeter, but you’re not moving off him as a WR2. Just like last week, the matchup favors Thomas. The Bears are playing the ninth-highest rate of Cover-3 zone (38%). In their first five games, Thomas easily leads the team in targets (29% share) and he’s posted a stellar 10/224/1 receiving (4.98 YPRR) when facing Cover-3.
Evan Engram – Engram missed his fourth straight game with a hamstring injury even though he got in limited practices all week leading up to Week 5. He should return this week. Brenton Strange continued to fill in as a decent streamer. This tight-end landscape is a nightmare, but we have to realize the increased competition for targets will likely make Engram more of a low-end fantasy TE1 moving forward.
FLEX Plays
Tank Bigsby and Travis Etienne – Through the first five games of the year, Bigsby has unquestionably been the Jaguars better running back over Etienne. After a good preseason, Bigsby has carried that momentum in the season, and his confidence continues to grow. Bigsby just shredded the Colts on the ground for 101 yards and a TD on just 13 carries, while Travis Etienne took just six handoffs. Etienne will continue to be involved on passing downs, but there is no way that the Jaguars can force this anymore. Etienne is dealing with a shoulder injury, but Bigsby is better right now. Among the 57 running backs with at least 25 carries this season, Bigsby leads all ball carriers in yards after contact (5.82 per carry), and he’s third-best in missed tackles forced (0.32 per carry). By comparison, Etienne ranks 20th in YACO/carry (2.70) and 25th in MTF/Carry (0.15). This is a great matchup because the Bears are far easier to run on than throw against. Chicago is getting cracked for 4.97 YPC (fifth-most).
Keenan Allen and Rome Odunze – In their three games together, Allen has been flat with games of 4/29 receiving, 3/19, and 3/33. Odunze hasn’t fared any better with gamelogs of 1/11 receiving, 1/10, and 5/40. This passing offense hasn’t been dynamic enough to support multiple fantasy-relevant options beyond Moore, but this matchup is just so appealing that it really boosts them up in projections. Odunze has more upside because the Jaguars are so bad on the perimeter, but Allen has earned significantly more first-reads (26% to 17%). I’m treating both as WR3 options after injuries have cleaned out the position.
Stream ‘Em
Caleb Williams – The Jaguars have changed up their scheme to more zone coverages over the last two weeks (69%) after being extremely reliant on man-to-man (61% frequency) in Weeks 1-3. It hasn’t worked. C.J. Stroud ripped them for 345 yards and 2 TDs two weeks ago, and 39-year-old Joe Flacco just shredded the Jaguars for 359 yards and 3 TDs last week. Caleb Williams is the best streamer in 1-QB leagues on this slate. Jacksonville has allowed a top-12 scoring week to five straight quarterbacks.
Sit ‘Em
Christian Kirk – Based on how HC Doug Pederson’s offense runs, Kirk is the most likely receiver to his targets impacted by Engram’s return. Brian Thomas’ emergence demotes Kirk as more of a volatile WR3. Kirk has earned 10% of the targets and has just three receptions for 28 yards on 46 routes vs. Cover-3.
Trevor Lawrence – Broke out of his slump in a great matchup last week for 371 yards and 2 TDs. It was the first time that Lawrence notched a top-10 scoring week among QB in fantasy football since Week 13 of last year. Chicago is holding quarterbacks to the second-fewest passing FP per dropback (0.23).
Cole Kmet – He’s earned just 1, 3, and 4 targets in three games with Moore/Allen/Odunze.
Gabe Davis
Stash ‘Em
Roschon Johnson
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New Orleans Saints
Must Start
Alvin Kamara – The QB change from Carr to Rattler looms large. The Saints have the fifth-lowest implied team total (19 points) on the Week 6 slate. You’re not moving off of Kamara as an RB1, though. The good news? This is a much easier matchup than in years past. Tampa Bay’s run defense has struggled to open the season and they’re allowing the seventh-most YPC (4.87) and the fourth-highest explosive run rate (8%).
Chris Godwin and Mike Evans – The Saints have given up just 1 TD to a receiver, which makes their metrics look better than their secondary is actually playing. New Orleans is allowing the fifth-most receiving yards per game (219.4) to opposing outside and slot receivers. Godwin is earning more first-reads (32% share vs. 26% for Evans), but the big man Evans has seen far more end-zone targets (7 to 1). Rookie WR Jalen McMillan (hamstring) has missed back-to-back games.
Start ‘Em
Baker Mayfield – Has finished as a top-8 scoring QB in four out of 5 games. Mayfield is playing better this season compared to last with improved figures in pass YPA (7.6 this year to 7.1 last year) and TD% (7.2 to 4.9). The Saints are allowing the seventh-most pass yards per game (268), but a league-low TD% (0.5). Baker is a low-end QB1 at worst.
FLEX Plays
Rachaad White and Bucky Irving – The rookie Irving lost a costly fumble late in the game last week, but he continued to eat into White’s workload again. It was the fifth straight game where Irving’s snaps have increased. Irving has actually usurped White by expected fantasy points per game (12.6 to 10.9) over the last two weeks. We’re headed towards a direct split for the rest of the season, and Irving has more long-term upside because he’s the better runner. Irving has out-snapped White by a 16 to 12 margin in the red-zone in their last two games. Both of these RBs are lower-end FLEX options.
Chris Olave and Rashid Shaheed – QB Derek Carr (oblique) is expected to miss a few weeks, so the Saints are turning to rookie QB Spencer Rattler in Week 6 against the Buccaneers. New Orleans is quietly the third-most run-heavy team (-6.9% PROE), and they’re obviously set to stay with the ground game as long as Rattler is under center. The positive side of things is that this matchup is amazing. The Buccaneers' secondary is allowing an “open” or “wide open” receiver on 56% of opposing receivers' routes (fourth-highest rate), and they’re getting crushed for the fourth-most schedule-adjusted FPG above average (+8.9) by wideouts. Shaheed (hip) didn’t practice on Wednesday.
Sit ‘Em
Spencer Rattler
Taysom Hill – Dealing with cracked ribs.
Cade Otton
Juwan Johnson
Jalen McMillan
Arizona Cardinals at Green Bay Packers
Must Start
Jayden Reed – Over his last 11 regular season games with Love under center, Jayden Reed has tallied up 56/815/7 receiving (on 74 targets) while adding 13/154/3 rushing. That’s 19.3 PPR points per game. For reference, Justin Jefferson is WR7 in FPG (19.0) this season.
Trey McBride – Leads all TEs in target share (26%) over Kittle (23%). All he does is earn targets. McBride has earned 115 looks over his last 14 games since becoming a full-time player (86/830/3 receiving result | 13.4 PPR FPG).
Tucker Kraft – Has emerged as a stud already. Kraft has finished as the top-scoring fantasy TE in back-to-back games with a 10/141/3 receiving result, showing out as an excellent run-after-catch threat. Kraft has run a route on 78% of the Packers' pass plays over the last two weeks, which is right up there with McBride (78%) and Kittle (78%) at the top of the position. Arizona just gave up 8/64/1 receiving on 12 targets to Kittle last week.
Start ‘Em
Josh Jacobs – He finally did it! After a four-game TD drought, Jacobs finally cashed in last week in a perfect matchup. Emmanuel Wilson has cut in for 29 touches over the last three weeks, but Jacobs’ snap rate hit a season-high 76% in Week 5. This is another spot for Jacobs to rack up 18-22 carries with the Packers favored by -5.5 against a Cardinals run defense yielding the second-most rush yards per game (122.4). Jacobs is a strong RB2.
James Conner – Has tallied 83 or more scrimmage yards on 19 or more touches in four out of 5 games. Conner’s snap rate hit a season-high 83% last week as the Cardinals continue to lean on the veteran heavily. Rookie RB Trey Benson did not play a single snap last week.
Marvin Harrison – This is a good matchup on paper for Harrison up against a Packers secondary that primarily utilizes single-high safety coverage. Green Bay has played one-high looks on at least 54% of their coverage snaps in each game. We’ve seen some pretty wide splits develop with Harrison on a small sample. Harrison is averaging 3.14 yards per route run and has earned 35% of the first-read targets against single high safety coverage, but that dips considerably when the Cardinals get a two-high look (1.0 YPRR | 22% first-read TS). He’s an upside WR2 in this possible shootout (47.5 over/under).
Jordan Love – Only threw it a season-low 26 times last week, but was otherwise efficient with 8.6 YPA against the Rams. Love has now thrown at least 2 TDs in 12 of his last 13 starts (including postseason).
Kyler Murray – Finished as fantasy’s QB5 in the Cardinals' comeback attempt last week. Murray randomly didn’t run in Week 4, and that quickly reversed course with an explosive 7/83/1 performance on the ground against the 49ers. This passing attack is still a work in progress, but Murray has now rushed for at least 45 yards in four out of 5 games.
FLEX Plays
Dontayvion Wicks – Tied for the team lead in targets (6) with Reed last week, but Wicks dropped two passes, and two more were uncatchable from Jordan Love. Even though he flopped in a great matchup last week, he has the same upside as a WR2/FLEX option in this spot. The Cardinals are allowing an “open” or “wide open” receiver on a league-high 60% of opposing wideouts routes. Obviously, his projection gets dinged a bit if Watson returns this week. Wicks and Watson were splitting time to begin this season.
Sit ‘Em
Michael Wilson – If you’re in a deeper league and are in need of a playable WR3/FLEX on the lower end, Wilson is on the board. He’s earned 22 targets (16/180 receiving result) over the last three weeks, which is just two fewer than Harrison (24).
Romeo Doubs
Christian Watson – Returned to limited practice on Wednesday (ankle).
Greg Dortch
Cleveland Browns at Philadelphia Eagles
Must Start
Saquon Barkley – Has my vote for RB1 rest of season. He racked up 132, 116, 152, and 116 scrimmage yards with 5 total TDs in his first four games as an Eagle.
A.J. Brown – After missing three games and having the bye to get his hamstring right, Brown returned to a full practice, and he’ll play in Week 6. It’s a welcome return to a landscape that has been nuked by injuries in the early stages. Brown dropped a 5/119/1 hammer on 10 targets in Week 1. No defense is playing more one-high safety coverages (76%) than the Browns. They are almost exclusively playing Cover-1 (man) and Cover-3 (zone). In fact, Cleveland has played man coverage on at least 50% of their opponents' pass plays in three straight games. Over the last two seasons, Brown is averaging 3.78 yards per route run vs. man-to-man, which means that he’s +33% more efficient when he faces man coverage compared to zones (2.54 YPPR).
Start ‘Em
Jalen Hurts
DeVonta Smith – Will return after missing one game with a concussion. For the first time since Week 1, the Eagles will have their normal WR rotation on the field. In that game, Smith (32% share) saw one fewer first read than Brown (37%). This means that Smith will move back into the slot full-time with Brown and Jahan Dotson on the perimeter. Smith ran 75% of his routes from the slot in Week 1, but that dipped to just 36% in Weeks 2-3 without Brown. He has seven receptions in every game so far.
Dallas Goedert – Brown and Smith’s returns obviously ding Goedert’s projection by quite a bit. In Week 1 with the Eagles WR duo healthy, Goedert only earned five targets (4/31 receiving result). He’s a lower-end TE1.
FLEX Plays
Amari Cooper – Among the 68 wide receivers with at least 20 targets, only AD Mitchell (35%) and Courtland Sutton (58%) have a lower catchable target rate than Cooper (60%). Yes, five uncharacteristic drops have left yards on the field for Cooper, but the main problem continues to be Watson’s scattershot and weak arm. If we’re looking for positives, Cooper’s usage remains elite with 34% of the first-read targets and 51% of the air yards. He’s a boom-or-bust WR3/FLEX.
Sit ‘Em
Jerome Ford – Running behind a beat up offensive line and with a quarterback that has lost his talent, Ford has been relegated to a roster clogger. RB Nick Chubb returned to limited practice last week and he’s nearing a return. Cleveland has the third-lowest implied team total (16.8 points), tied with Las Vegas. D’Onta Foreman mixed in for 9/44 rushing last week, but he’s questionable to play with a knee injury.
Deshaun Watson – In his 16 full starts with the Browns, Watson is averaging a pitiful 191.5 passing yards per game (5.9 YPA), and he’s accounted for 22 TDs compared to 16 turnovers. He’s finished as fantasy’s QB18, QB12, QB15, QB19, and QB23 this season.
Jerry Jeudy
David Njoku – Now dealing with a knee injury. Jordan Akins will fill in.
Jahan Dotson
Houston Texans at New England Patriots
Must Start
Stefon Diggs – Led the team in first-read targets (29% share) over Dalton Schultz (17%) and Dell (13%) without Collins (hamstring) last week. Diggs still lined up in the slot on 56% of his routes while Tank Dell and Xavier Hutchinson were primarily out wide.
Start ‘Em
C.J. Stroud – Nico Collins’ loss looms large as he’s set to miss at least the next four games with a hamstring injury. The Texans leaned on the run in Week 1, but have since dialed up the passing in four straight games without Joe Mixon (high ankle injury). Over the last four weeks, only the Seahawks, Buccaneers, and Bengals have a higher pass rate over expectation than the Texans. Stroud is averaging 35.4 pass attempts per game (sixth-most) as a result. He remains a lower-end QB1 here.
Tank Dell – Identified as a buy-low a few weeks ago, and I still feel that way. Dell is the only Texan WR playing below his expected fantasy value (10.2 XFP/G) compared to his actual results (7.4 PPR FPG). By comparison, both Collins (+3.9 actual vs. XFP) and Diggs (+2.5) are overperforming compared to their XFP. Dell is underperforming by -2.8 FPG, which is sure to pick up. Dell has a huge opportunity to make right after his slow start. Nico Collins has accounted for a massive 38% share of the Texans receiving yardage. Dell’s separation metrics still look great. Dell’s average separation score when aligned out wide (0.18 A.S.S.) is 15th-best overall, and barely trails Diggs (0.19 A.S.S.) and Collins (0.21). The targets will find him.
FLEX Plays
Rhamondre Stevenson – Antonio Gibson (47%) ended up playing one more snap than Stevenson (46%) last week, but Stevenson doubled up Gibson in carries (12 to 6). After fumbling in four straight games, Stevenson held on to the ball and tallied up 92 scrimmage yards and a TD. Drake Maye’s legs give the Patriot's run game a new added dimension. Stevenson (foot) has missed practice on Wednesday-Thursday.
Antonio Gibson – Would enter the RB2/FLEX conversation after Stevenson (foot) has missed practice on Wednesday-Thursday.
Stream ‘Em
Dalton Schultz – Collins’ departure gives Schultz a chance to re-emerge on the fantasy radar. Schultz saw a season-high six targets and a 17% first-read share in Week 5, which is an uptick from his lowly 10% FR target share in Weeks 1-4. The Patriots are allowing the eighth-most receiving yards per game to tight ends (54). He's in play as a streamer if you’re hurting at the position or need a bye-week replacement.
Sit ‘Em
Dameon Pierce, Cam Akers, and Dare Ogunbowale – RB Joe Mixon (high ankle sprain) still isn’t practicing. Akers scored last week, but Ogunbowale took over this backfield with 67% of the snaps (15 carries, 7 targets) and Akers down at 33% of snaps (9 carries, 3 targets). RB Dameon Pierce is expected to return after missing four straight games with a hamstring injury.
Hunter Henry
Demario Douglas
Xavier Hutchinson
Stash ‘Em
Drake Maye – Has underrated rushing upside for our game which immediately puts him on the board as a QB2 for SuperFlex formats. However, the Patriots offensive line is in deep trouble here. Only the battered Browns offensive line (48%) is allowing pressure more often than the Patriots (40%). The Texans are tied for second in pressures forced (40%) with the Jets and Cowboys, and they’re sixth-best in sacks (9.3%).
Ja’Lynn Polk – Keep stashing him. Over the last two weeks, Polk leads the team in routes (84% share) and targets (13). Polk has been the first-read 28% of the time compared to WR2 Demario Douglas (19%).
Washington Commanders at Baltimore Ravens
Must Start
Lamar Jackson – Has finished as a top-10 scoring QB in five straight games.
Jayden Daniels – Only trails Jackson (72.6) in rushing yards per game among QBs (Daniels: 60 Rush YPG). He leads all QBs in catchable throw rate (85%) and he trails only Purdy (+7.8%) in completion rate over expectation (+7.2%).
Derrick Henry – Over the last three weeks, the Ravens have morphed into the most run-heavy team in the league with their pass rate sitting at -10.2% under expectation. King Henry has rolled up 479 scrimmage yards and 5 total TDs as a result. The Commanders are getting shredded for a league-high 5.3 YPC.
Start ‘Em
Terry McLaurin – After a slow start, McLaurin is balling out over the last three weeks, racking up 15/264/2 receiving (on 24 targets). At long last… he has a great quarterback that’s capable of hitting him deep consistently. His 17.7-yard average depth of target over the last three games is gaudy, and now he catches a struggling Baltimore secondary. The only defense that is giving up more schedule-adjusted FPG above average to opposing wide receivers than Baltimore (+10.7) is Jacksonville (+16.3).
Zay Flowers – Exploded for 7/111 receiving on 12 targets vs. Bengals after he was an afterthought in Weeks 3-4 as a part of the Ravens' run-heavy gameplans. Baltimore’s passing volume can fall off of a cliff quickly if they’re leading and running the ball, but you’re not taking Flowers out of lineups as a WR2 in this matchup.
Sit ‘Em
Brian Robinson – Bothered by a knee injury that severely limited him to just 32% of the snaps last week. He didn’t practice on Wednesday. Jeremy McNichols and Robinson both took seven carries last week while Ekeler had six totes. To make matters worse, this is the worst possible matchup with Washington set as a +6.5 road underdog. Baltimore is allowing a league-low 2.9 YPC.
Austin Ekeler – Continues to look explosive. He leads all RBs with 10 (!!) yards per touch, but he hasn’t yet taken on enough work to be relied upon as anything more than a floor option in PPR leagues as a FLEX.
Isaiah Likely and Mark Andrews – Andrews showed signs of life last week (4/55 receiving), but he was still just a part-time player (49% route share). Likely saw 12 targets in Week 1. Since then, he’s earned nine total targets (7/69/2 receiving result). Charlie Kolar was targeted four times on five routes last week (3/64 receiving) just for some added fun!
Zach Ertz
Rashod Bateman
Luke McCaffrey
Justice Hill
Indianapolis Colts at Tennessee Titans
This game will be added soon.
Los Angeles Chargers at Denver Broncos (4:05p ET)
Start ‘Em
J.K. Dobbins – Absolutely dominated for 27/266/2 rushing in two easy matchups vs. Raiders and Panthers to open the season before slowing down a bit in two back-to-back losses against the Steelers and Chiefs (29/76/0 rushing). The good news for Dobbins’ fantasy stock is that his role continued to get better up until their bye, with his snap rate hitting a season-high 72% in Week 4. The Chargers are the most run-heavy offense in the league (-8.3% PROE), which will keep Dobbins locked in as a volume-based RB2 at worst. Gus Edwards (ankle) didn’t practice on Wednesday.
FLEX Plays
Ladd McConkey – In their two games before the bye, McConkey led the Chargers in routes (83% share) and targets (13) by a wide margin over Johnston (75% route share | 7 targets). Los Angeles doesn’t pass often, but when they do, McConkey was the first-read a whopping 39.4% of the time in Weeks 3-4. The volume will likely never be great, but we’re definitely on breakout watch for McConkey in the second half of his rookie season.
Courtland Sutton – Only AD Mitchell (35%) has a lower catchable target rate than Courtland Sutton (58%). Yikes. The Broncos only needed to throw it 27 times last week in their win over the Raiders, but Sutton remained the main first-read. His underlying usage remains amazing against the backdrop of this offense. Sutton has garnered a strong 32% share of the first-read targets and 48% of the air yards. His role has been worth 15.8 expected PPR points per game (WR14), but he’s actually scored just 9.1 FPG, which is a massive -6.7 point difference. This is another good matchup – just like last week. The Chargers are allowing 2.35 yards per route run to opposing outside receivers (fifth-most).
Javonte Williams – He still hasn’t scored a TD yet, but Williams has turned his season around with 18 touches in back-to-back games and 191 total scrimmage yards to show for it. Rookie RB Audric Estime (ankle) returned to a full practice on Wednesday and could turn this backfield back into a three-man committee. Williams’ volume long-term remains shaky, but he’s played on at least 60% of the snaps in back to back games to give him a little life on the FLEX radar.
Sit ‘Em
Quentin Johnston – Will likely see shadow coverage from CB Pat Surtain.
Jaleel McLaughlin
Justin Herbert – Dead last among QBs in pass attempts per game (22.8). Herbert opened the season with weekly finishes of QB25, QB18, QB28, and QB22 in fantasy football.
Bo Nix
Josh Palmer
Josh Reynolds
Pittsburgh Steelers at Las Vegas Raiders (4:05p ET)
Must Start
Brock Bowers
Start ‘Em
Justin Fields – Posted a season-low 56% completion rate and a pitiful 4.9 YPA against an undermanned Dallas defense last week. Fields threw 2 TDs for the first time all season to mask what was a pretty ugly game overall. Still, this has been an impressive start overall. Only six QBs are averaging more fantasy points per dropback than Fields and they are Jackson, Daniels, Allen Mayfield, Richardson, and Murray. There is nothing about this matchup that should scare you off Fields as a lower-end QB1 with the Raiders giving up the ninth-most passing FP per dropback. This is a great chance to bounce-back.
Pat Freiermuth – Only two TEs have finished top-15 in weekly PPR points in every game that they’ve played this season: George Kittle and… Freiermuth. The Raiders have given up an efficient 20/211/1 receiving (on 25 targets) to tight ends this season.
FLEX Plays
George Pickens – After building some momentum, Fields struggled in Week 5 against Dallas for the worst game of his season, and that dragged down Pickens to just 3/26 receiving on seven targets. He’s seen at least seven targets in four out of 5 games, but the Steelers remain very run-heavy with a pass rate -6.7% below expectation (fourth-lowest rate).
Jakobi Meyers – With Davante Adams sidelined over the last two weeks, Meyers leads the Raiders in targets (19) over Bowers (15). His role has been worth a strong 16.8 expected PPR points per game, but his quarterback play has been subpar at best. Aidan O’Connell averaged 214.3 passing yards per game with a 3.5% TD in 10 starts last year, which is slightly better than Minshew’s figures in five starts this season (202.8 YPG | 2.9% TD).
Najee Harris – For a second straight week, Harris airballed in an “easier” matchup. He gets his third chance here. Harris hasn’t scored a TD yet and has between 73 and 86 scrimmage yards in every game so far. He’s been an empty-calorie RB2 for two years now. The Raiders are struggling badly on run defense to the tune of 5.2 YPC allowed (second-most), and they just lost DT Christian Wilkins (foot). Cordarrelle Patterson (ankle) is out again.
Sit ‘Em
Davante Adams – Will miss his third straight game with a “hamstring” injury that can only heal if he gets traded.
Alex Mattison – Led the Raiders in carries (15) last week but we saw Ameer Abdullah cut in as the passing down RB with 21 routes to just 12 for Mattison. Zamir White (groin) still isn’t practicing. Pittsburgh is allowing the fourth-fewest YPC (3.6).
Jaylen Warren – Buy low. Despite this being a perfect system for him, Najee Harris is averaging career-lows in yards per game and YPC. Warren has dealt with a hamstring and now a knee injury, but I still believe he has a pathway to become the lead RB down the stretch run. Harris is so mid. Warren was far more efficient last season, and I suspect he’ll have the same success when he’s back healthy.
Tre Tucker
Aidan O’Connell
Atlanta Falcons at Carolina Panthers (4:25p ET)
Must Start
Drake London – This is the London that we all knew existed, but we never saw consistently because he was held down by poor quarterback play. He’s absolutely balling out as the alpha WR1 for Cousins. Over the last four weeks, London is third among all receivers in total targets (41), and he’s WR4 in fantasy points per game (20.5). The only wide receivers that have garnered a higher share of their team’s first-read targets than London (39%) are Malik Nabers (51%) and Justin Jefferson (39.2%). This is an ideal matchup for London to stay hot up against a Panthers secondary that’s allowing the seventh-most yards per game (120.6) to opposing outside receivers.
Start ‘Em
Bijan Robinson – It has been a slow start for Robinson with weekly finishes of RB19, RB15, RB20, RB26, and RB27 to open his campaign. Atlanta has shifted far more pass-heavy over the last two weeks, so any time Tyler Allgeier checks in for his changeup role, it has an even greater impact on Robinson’s volume. This is clearly a spot to get right. The Falcons are -6 favorites against a struggling Panthers defense that’s giving up 155.8 scrimmage yards per game to opposing RBs (third-most).
Chuba Hubbard – Carolina still hasn’t opened up Jonathon Brooks’ (knee) window to return off of I.R. yet. Hubbard is running well with 62/379/2 rushing and 17/82/1 receiving over his last four games, and he’s dominating all of the red-zone work. Hubbard has nine opportunities (carries + targets) inside-the-10 while Miles Sanders has just 2. Go right back to him as a high end RB2.
Diontae Johnson – Dalton struggled in a tougher matchup on the road in Chicago, which held Johnson in check (3/23 receiving on six targets). Johnson shredded the Raiders for 8/122/1 receiving and the Bengals for 7/83/1 in his two previous games with Dalton under center, and this is certainly an easier matchup after last week. Only the Rams, Jaguars, and Colts are yielding more yards per route run to opposing outside receivers than the Falcons (2.39).
Darnell Mooney – Over the last four weeks, Mooney is second on the Falcons with 30% of the first-read targets ahead of Ray Ray McLoud (13%) and Pitts (10%). Their entire passing attack has largely been condensed around London and Mooney, and with amazing overall volume here, Mooney has a WR2 outlook for the rest of the season. The Panthers are playing Cover-3 zone on a league-high 56% of opponents pass plays, and Mooney (12) has the slight lead in targets over London (10) against Cover-3 looks on the small sample so far this season.
Kyle Pitts – He had his best game of the year with 7/88 receiving last week, but he still hasn’t seen more than 14% of the Falcons targets in a single game yet this season. Atlanta is using Pitts as more of a traditional inline TE this year as he’s run 45% of his routes lined up on the line of scrimmage. For comparison, Pitts was basically just a big WR last year, and he lined up as an inline TE on just 14% of his routes. In theory, this is the ideal deployment for Pitts so he can avoid tougher coverage from cornerbacks, but he’s still not earning looks consistently. With that in mind, I’m going back to Pitts as a low-end TE1 up against a Panthers defense that’s giving up the 10th-most yards per game to tight ends (50). Atlanta’s recent uptick in pass rate really helps.
Stream ‘Em
Kirk Cousins – After a slow start where he finished as fantasy’s QB28, QB9, QB24, and QB28 in Weeks 1-4, Cousins broke out for a monster 509 passing yards and 4 TDs on 58 pass attempts last week. Atlanta has morphed into an extremely pass-heavy offense over the last two weeks with a +12% pass rate over expectation in back-to-back games after Cousins needed the opening month to get his legs back underneath him. This all puts him squarely back on the lower-end QB1 radar for the rest of the season. This is an awesome week to stream Cousins in 1-QB leagues if you need him up against a Panthers secondary that’s giving up a league-high 0.55 passing fantasy points per dropback.
Sit ‘Em
Xavier Legette – Departed last week’s game early with a shoulder injury that turned out to be minor. Legette returned to full practice on Wednesday. The shootout appeal (47 over/under) and lack of secondary targets for the Panthers beyond Johnson keeps Legette in play on the low end of the WR3/FLEX radar this week.
Ray Ray McLoud
Andy Dalton – We’re looking for more upside in 1-QB leagues, but Dalton remains locked into your SuperFlex lineups. He’ll be down two starting offensive linemen with C Austin Corbett (biceps) on I.R. and T Taylor Moton (triceps) out.
Stash ‘Em
Tyler Allgeier
Detroit Lions at Dallas Cowboys (4:25p ET)
Must Start
CeeDee Lamb
Amon-Ra St. Brown
Jake Ferguson – Trails only Trey McBride (0.29) in targets per route run (0.27) among tight ends. Ferguson has at least six receptions in three straight games, yet he still is without an end zone target after he led all TEs with 12 end zone targets last year. The touchdowns will come in this offense.
Start ‘Em
Jahymr Gibbs and David Montgomery – Dallas has played inspired run defense in their last two games after they were cleaned out by Alvin Kamara and Derrick Henry in back-to-back games in Weeks 2-3. The Lions' offensive line is back to full strength out of the bye with C Frank Ragnow back, and Detroit will try to lean heavily on the run here. Montgomery has scored 19 TDs in 20 full games with the Lions (including playoffs), but Gibbs has certainly closed the gap at the goal line. Montgomery has 10 carries to Gibbs’ 7 inside-the-10 this season.
Dak Prescott – After a slow Week 1 against a tough Browns defense, Prescott has played pretty well over the last four weeks. Dak has finished as fantasy’s QB14, QB2, QB12, and QB13 with a healthy 7.8 YPA in this span. The Lions' secondary has improved this season, but you’re not moving away from Prescott as a QB1 in this likely shootout (52 over/under). Dallas’ defense is no longer dominating and shutting down opposing offenses, which has forced Prescott to throw more in closer ball games. Dak is up to 38.2 pass attempts per game (second-most in NFL).
Sam LaPorta – In their last game in Week 4 before the bye, LaPorta’s route involvement (82% share) and first-read target share (15%) marked season highs. This should be the healthiest that he’s been all season after he missed a lot of training camp with a hamstring injury and then he sprained his ankle in Week 3 vs. Arizona. Dallas just allowed 6/50/2 receiving (on 9 targets) to Pittsburgh’s tight end group.
Rico Dowdle – Continued to emerge as the Cowboys' lead RB last week. Dowdle played on a season-high 51% of the snaps in Week 5, and he paid it off with 114 scrimmage yards and a TD in a tough matchup. After splitting red-zone work in their first two games, Dowdle has out-snapped Ezekiel Elliott by a 12 to 4 margin inside-the-20 over the last three weeks. This is yet another tough matchup – Detroit is allowing the fourth-fewest rushing yards per game (58.3) – but Dowdle’s increased involvement has him trending up as an RB2. The Zero-RB bros are thrilled.
FLEX Plays
Jameson Williams – Opened up the season on a tear with 10/200/1 receiving on 20 targets in Weeks 1-2 before earning just five targets in Weeks 3-4. Williams housed a 70-yard TD against Seattle to save his day, and to further highlight why he will always be on the WR2/FLEX radar. One play can change it all here.
Jalen Tolbert – With Brandin Cooks (knee) sidelined, Tolbert stepped up in a huge way last week with a career-best game (7/87/1 receiving on 10 targets). The likely shootout (52 over/under) and high volume nature of this passing offense keep Tolbert viable as a WR3/FLEX this week.
Sit ‘Em
Jared Goff – Opened the season with QB19, QB25, and QB19 scoring performances in fantasy before going a perfect 18-for-18 for 292 yards and 2 TDs against Seattle in Week 4. Goff is better used in SuperFlex formats, but there is no denying that this is a good spot for Detroit with Dallas missing EDGE Micah Parsons and DL DeMarcus Lawrence.
Ezekiel Elliott
Brandin Cooks – Shifted to I.R. last week (knee infection).
Cincinnati Bengals at New York Giants (SNF)
Must Start
Malik Nabers – Leads all WRs in PPR points per game (22.9). Nabers still hasn’t returned to practice (concussion).
Ja’Marr Chase – The Giants are playing the fourth-most single-high safety coverage (61%), and they’re going to get absolutely shredded on Sunday Night if they don’t mix in some two-high shells. Chase is unguardable right now. Over the last three weeks with Higgins back in the lineup, Chase has absolutely lost his mind for 13/278/4 receiving (5.91 YPRR) against single-high safety coverages. He’s earned 37% of the targets against 1-hi looks compared to 23% for Higgins.
Joe Burrow – After a predictable slow start in Week 1, Burrow and the Bengals' passing attack have come to life. Burrow has thrown for multiple passing TDs in four straight games while completing 72% of his throws for 301.5 passing yards per game (8.4 YPA) in this span. He’s now the QB5 in fantasy points per game after shredding the Ravens' regressing secondary for 5 TDs. Cincinnati has now lost four games by one score, but this is the level of play that Burrow sustained in their Super Bowl run in 2021. They’re capable of going on a run to make the AFC Wild Card because of how well Burrow is playing. Consider him a Must Start QB1 moving forward with Chase and Higgins fully healthy and motivated.
Start ‘Em
Tee Higgins – He’s already earned 30 total targets in three games because the Bengals are the second-most pass-heavy team in the league, and Joe Burrow is playing at MVP levels. The volume will continue to stay strong here because the Bengals' defense has regressed so severely. That will help keep their games tight. We identified Higgins as a great buy low last week, and he immediately delivered for 9/83/2 receiving. The Giants are allowing 110.2 yards per game to opposing outside receivers (12th-most).
Chase Brown – Per NFL Network’s Mike Garofolo, Zack Moss’ injury was “mostly a scare” but he still didn’t practice on Wednesday (foot). We’ve seen a big change in this backfield over the last two weeks. Moss is still playing more snaps than Brown because the Bengals trust him in pass protection, but Brown has out-carried Moss by a slight 27 to 24 margin. As a result, Brown (15.2 PPR XFP/G) has a slight lead over Moss (13.7 XFP/G) by expected fantasy points. Anyone with eyes can see that Brown is more explosive.
FLEX Plays
Wan’Dale Robinson
Devin Singletary and Tyrone Tracy – Singletary missed Week 5 while nursing a groin injury. He has been playing extremely well in his own right this season, but the rookie RB Tyrone Tracy just put some runs on tape that can’t be put back in the bottle. This backfield will likely trend towards more of a committee split moving forward after Tracy just broke out for a strong 18/129 (7.2 YPC) on the ground against Seattle. We’ve been high on Tracy all year and weren’t surprised that he balled out when given this opportunity. Singletary is downgraded as a result. The Giants get another great matchup in Week 6 against the Bengals leaky run defense.
Stream ‘Em
Daniel Jones – Quieted some haters (myself included) with a downright dominant game against a good Seahawks defense. Despite a goal-line fumble from Eric Gray that cost them points early, the Giants offense still managed to put up 23 points without Nabers. It was impressive. Jones went 23-of-34 for 257 yards (7.6 YPA) and 2 TDs while playing a clean game with zero turnovers. This game has clear shootout upside (47.5 over/under) and the Bengals defense provides a soft matchup (0.45 Pass FP per dropback allowed | fifth-most).
Sit ‘Em
Zack Moss – Dealing with a foot injury.
Darius Slayton – Remains the most underrated WR in the league. Slayton would be back in play as a WR3/FLEX if Nabers is out again.
Andrei Iosivas
Stash ‘Em
Erick All – Stash him in deeper formats and TE Premium leagues. Mike Gesicki (hamstring) didn’t practice on Wednesday.
Buffalo Bills at New York Jets (MNF)
Start ‘Em
Breece Hall – It has been a rough few games for Hall with just 27 yards on his 19 carries against the Broncos and Vikings. Sure, it was a tough matchup for the Jets' run game against Minnesota’s run defense, but there are two long-term concerns emerging here. First and foremost, the Jets' run blocking has a long way to go. Hall is just running into brick walls. Among the 57 running backs with at least 25 carries this season, Hall ranks dead last in yards before contact per carry (0.37). Rookie RB Braelon Allen emerging as a good change-up piece is the secondary concern. Hall has seen 54% of the carries and is averaging 17.0 expected PPR points per game based on his role, which is a slight reduction from his 2023 levels where he took 62% of the handoffs and averaged 17.6 XFP/G. This is clearly a spot for the Jets' run game to break free. The Bills are allowing a league-high 171 scrimmage yards per game to opposing backfields.
James Cook – The biggest takeaway from the early stages of Cook’s season is that the Bills are trusting him as their goal-line back over Josh Allen. It’s a big change. Cook leads Buffalo in carries (7) over Allen (2) inside-the-10. This type of usage will keep him as a borderline RB1 for the rest of the way. Cook has missed practice on Wednesday-Thursday (foot/toe).
Josh Allen – Allen has finished as the QB1 twice and outside of the top-15 scoring quarterbacks in fantasy all together three times this season. Allen’s pass attempts have dipped to a career-low 26.2 per game, and this passing attack was just a shell of itself last week without Khalil Shakir (ankle). The Jets are going through a midlife crisis here in Week 6, but their defense has continued to be a shutdown unit. New York is allowing a league-low 0.22 passing FP per dropback. We need Allen to start running a bit more.
Garrett Wilson – Rodgers didn’t play well at all, but Wilson still bounced back for 13/101/1 receiving last week against the Vikings. It was an ideal matchup for Wilson to dominate targets, and he did. Wilson’s 23 targets in Week 5 were tied for the third-most by a receiver in a single game all-time. This is a polar opposite spot. Buffalo is holding opposing outside receivers to the second-fewest yards per game (60.6). Wilson was a borderline WR1 last week, but he’s more of a WR2 here.
Dalton Kincaid – Led the Bills in routes and targets last week with Shakir out, but he still managed just two receptions for 34 yards. There is no way that you have a better streaming option unless you picked up Tucker Kraft, so we’re back with him as a low-end TE1 in projections.
Stream ‘Em
Tyler Conklin – We liked him as a streamer last week, and you can go back to him as a guarantee for 6-8 fantasy points. Conklin has earned 6, 8, and 9 targets over the last three weeks. Conklin’s targets per route run nearly doubles when facing two-high safety coverage (0.20 TPPR – 2-hi | 0.11 TPRR –1-hi).
Sit ‘Em
Allen Lazard – After going for 6/89/2 in Week 1, Lazard has turned his 24 targets into just 151 receiving yards over his last four games. He’ll need to find the endzone again here to return fantasy value because the matchup isn’t easy.
Khalil Shakir – Didn’t play in Week 5, and didn’t practice on Wednesday-Thursday to open this week (ankle).
Keon Coleman – The Jets are allowing the third-fewest yards per game (64.2) to opposing outside wide receivers.
Aaron Rodgers – The Jets just did a mini-house cleaning with HC Robert Saleh gone and OC Nathaniel Hackett relieved. Todd Downing will now call plays for the Jets, and he was last an offensive coordinator in 2021-22 for the Titans. Everyone except for the Jets knew that Hackett was no good. New York is the most static offense in the league and they barely utilize motion (34% | 30th) to get their receivers in advantageous matchups on the field. The Jets have emerged as one of the most pass-heavy offenses (+9.2% pass rate over expectation | third-highest) over the last three weeks, and this certainly seems like a spot for them to try and run the ball more. Buffalo is predominantly playing two-high coverage (59% frequency), which invites opponents to run the ball against them.
Mike Williams
Curtis Samuel
Stash ‘Em
Braelon Allen
