Welcome to Week 5 Start ‘Em, Sit ‘Em.
This game-by-game article breaks down every player that is relevant for fantasy football. As always, please use our projections to make your start/sit decisions every week. The analysis in this piece provides color – and a lot of stats – behind the projections.
Unless stated otherwise, all of the data in this article is from Fantasy Points Data and specifically curated from the Data Suite. Our collection team has charted every play from every game over the last three seasons, and we will have fresh, weekly data imported into the tools on Tuesday mornings after the games.
The Start’ Em, Sit ‘Em key
Must Start — Don’t take them out of your lineup, even if there is a fire.
Start ‘Em — The top-12 at QB and TE; top-20 plays at RB; top-25 at WR.
FLEX Plays — All of the best RB2/WR3 plays.
Stream ‘Em — The best one-week plays at QB and TE for streaming off of the waiver wire.
Sit ‘Em — Don’t play them in your lineups. This could be due to a poor role, matchup, or performance.
Stash ‘Em — Step 1: Hold them on your bench. Step 2: Profit. (See: Jordan Mason, Week 1)
Good luck this week!
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Atlanta Falcons (TNF)
Must Start
Bijan Robinson – Nursing a minor hamstring issue, but is off of the injury report and will play.
Chris Godwin – Atlanta is getting cleaned out for a league-high +9.6 schedule-adjusted PPR points per game above average to opposing slot wide receivers. A whopping 44.1% of the Falcons targets they’ve faced have been through the slot (third-highest rate).
Start ‘Em
Mike Evans – As expected, he was the squeaky wheel last week with an 8/94/1 result. This matchup favors Godwin, but you’re not pulling Evans out of your lineups as a borderline WR1. Godwin has earned 34% of the first-read targets compared to 26% for Evans. The Bucs’ passing tree is just heavily concentrated around these two, and that will continue with rookie WR Jalen McMillan (hamstring) out again along with Trey Palmer (concussion).
Drake London – After a slow Week 1 in a tough matchup against the Steelers, London has finished as fantasy’s WR19, WR19, and WR34 over the last three weeks. London is absolutely dominating targets. Over the last three weeks, he’s earned a whopping 46% (!) of the first-read targets followed by Darnell Mooney (26%). Keep him in your lineups as a WR2.
Baker Mayfield – Outside of his down game against the Broncos blitz in Week 3, Mayfield has finished as a top-5 scoring QB in fantasy in his three other outings this season. This is a tougher matchup on paper since the Falcons are allowing the sixth-fewest passing fantasy points per dropback and yards per pass attempt. However, the coverage schematic matchup favors Mayfield, given his history. Atlanta is predominantly playing Cover-3 zone with 42% frequency (fifth-most). Mayfield is second-best in FP per dropback against Cover-3 this season after he was fifth-best last year. I’m treating Mayfield as a low-end QB1 at worst for Week 5.
FLEX Plays
Darnell Mooney – Has emerged as the Falcons' clear #2 target with 7, 8, and 6 looks over the last three weeks.
Rachaad White and Bucky Irving – It only took four weeks for the Buccaneers to realize that Irving is a better runner than White. After his snap rate was his usual 70% in Weeks 1-3, the Bucs cut White’s snaps down to 61% last week as this duo split carries (10 apiece). Irving also took over as the preferred red-zone RB with five carries inside-the-20 while White had zero last week. That couldn’t be any more bearish for White’s stock long-term. White and Irving are lower-end FLEX options in this split backfield.
Sit ‘Em
Kyle Pitts – Currently TE19 in targets and TE23 in fantasy points on a per game basis.
Kirk Cousins – Has finished as fantasy’s QB28, QB9, QB24, and QB28.
Cade Otton – He’s earned 8 and 9 targets over the last two weeks, and he’ll continue to be more involved with McMillan and Palmer out. However, this is a tougher matchup with the Falcons after they have held Pat Freiermuth (4/27 receiving), Dallas Goedert (3/38), Travis Kelce (4/30), and Saints TEs (3/26) all in check. He’s a desperation streamer.
Stash ‘Em
Tyler Allgeier – Remains one of the best handcuffs in fantasy.
New York Jets at Minnesota Vikings (London – 9:30a ET kickoff)
Must Start
Justin Jefferson – Currently WR3 in FPG (20.0) and WR4 in yards per route run (3.44). This is obviously a strength-on-strength matchup against the Jets elite secondary. The Vikings move Jefferson into the slot often, so he will avoid Sauce Gardner and D.J. Reed on 30-40% of his routes.
Aaron Jones – The RB6 in FPG (18.6), Jones has shown zero signs of age so far. He’s third among all RBs in yards after contact per carry (3.6). Along with incredible efficiency on the ground, Jones has been heavily involved in the pass game. Only Hall, Achane, Kamara, and Ford have earned more targets among running backs. The Jets aren’t giving up many explosive runs, but have quietly been cracked for 4.6 YPC (11th-most).
Start ‘Em
Breece Hall – It was a rough day for the Jets offense in their feeble 10-9 home loss to the Broncos last week. It was especially brutal for Hall. He was smothered by the Broncos and held to just four scoreless yards rushing on 10 carries. Hall also dropped a pass, and Aaron Rodgers underthrew him in the end zone on a vertical route, which kept him to 2/14 receiving on five targets. Meanwhile, Braelon Allen continued to play his changeup role here. Allen and Hall shared the field on a few plays, but Hall still led this backfield by snaps (71% to 34%) and expected PPR fantasy points (17.5 to 6.0). Hall is still a locked-in RB1 but Allen’s emergence does lower his ceiling a bit. The Jets have a tough matchup against the Vikings' strong run defense that’s allowing the fourth-fewest yards per game (62.3) and a league-low 1.3% explosive run rate (of 15+ yards).
Garrett Wilson – Through four games, Wilson still has not finished as a top-25 scoring receiver. This is a spot to bust the slump. The Vikings are giving up a league-high 243 yards per game to opposing receivers aligned out wide or in the slot.
FLEX Plays
Allen Lazard – Through four games, Lazard has outscored Wilson (13.7 to 11.4 FPG) on 10 fewer targets. Wilson does get an easier matchup this week, but Lazard is going to continue to be involved here because Rodgers trusts him. Wilson and Lazard have both been targeted a team-high 10 times (22% share) when Rodgers has been blitzed this season. Lazard has run a route on at least 80% of the Jets passing plays in 3-of-4 games.
Stream ‘Em
Aaron Rodgers – On this weaker slate for QBs, I’m treating Rodgers as a solid streamer. Ideally, you are looking for way more upside in 1-QB leagues. He remains a great play in SuperFlex. He’s finished as fantasy’s QB27, QB13, QB11, and QB20 on a weekly basis. We know what the Vikings want to do on defense: Blitz and play two-high coverage behind their pressure looks. Minnesota is deploying two-high coverage on nearly 80% of their opponents' pass plays (79%, league-high). Rodgers has been solid when blitzed this season, owning a 3:0 TD-to-INT ratio and the seventh-best passer rating. Minnesota is allowing 16.3 passing fantasy points per game (sixth-most).
Tyler Conklin – We’re just looking for players with a pulse to stream as a low-end TE1 this season, and Conklin at least plays a ton. He’s third among TEs in route share (77%) but only TE16 in target share (12.5%), with Wilson, Lazard, and Hall earning the majority of the looks. This is a good matchup because the Vikings are allowing the fifth-most FPG (13.5) and the second-most schedule-adjusted FPG (+6.8 PPR points above average) to the position.
Sit ‘Em
Sam Darnold – We have been all over Darnold as a top streaming option to start the season, and he’s more than delivered with three straight top-10 weekly finishes at the position. Darnold has thrown for two TDs in every game and trails only Brock Purdy in yards per pass attempt. However, we have to give this Jets secondary a ton of respect. New York is allowing the second-fewest passing fantasy points per dropback and yards per pass attempt. They haven’t allowed a top-12 QB scorer in four straight games. Darnold is best used in SuperFlex formats.
Jordan Addison – In his first game back from an ankle injury, Addison scored twice on four touches (3/72/1 receiving and a 7-yard rushing TD). Even though he was a little limited (69% route share) last week, Addison still earned the second-most first-read targets (20% share) behind Jefferson (30%). This is a brutal matchup because Addison is most likely to see Jets top corners Sauce Gardner and D.J. Reed. Last week, Addison ran 74% of his routes aligned out wide compared to 61% for Jefferson. The Jets are holding opposing outside receivers to -6.1 schedule-adjusted PPR points below average (fifth-fewest). Addison is a lower-end WR3/FLEX for Week 5 decisions.
T.J. Hockenson – Will return to practice this week, but will not play as he continues to ramp up. The Vikings have a bye after their game in London, so we’ll likely see Hockenson make his debut in Week 7 or 8.
Mike Williams – Still limited. Williams’ route share was a season-high 59% last week, and he earned 5 targets (4/67 result).
Jalen Nailor
Ty Chandler
Stash ‘Em
Braelon Allen – The top handcuff in fantasy. Hall (40) and Allen (26) have split carries over the last three weeks.
Cleveland Browns at Washington Commanders
Must Start
Jayden Daniels – This is Daniels’ first really tough matchup after he shredded the Bengals and Cardinals weak defenses for 487 yards passing (9.2 YPA) and an 89% completion rate over the last two weeks. The good news is that Daniels will always be highly involved as a runner – he has at least 8 carries and 39 rushing yards in every game. The Browns are generating the second-highest pressure rate (41.2%), and they will be a test for this offensive line after two easy matchups.
Start ‘Em
Amari Cooper – It has been rough for Watson and Cooper’s connection, with just 62% of his targets charted as catchable. Cooper hasn’t been playing up to his own standard with five drops, too. With the downside firmly in mind… this is an explosion spot. Cooper is simply one of the highest-upside WR2s for this week. Washington is allowing +11.7 schedule-adjusted FPG above average to opposing wide receivers (second-most).
Brian Robinson – Robinson tallied up 113 scrimmage yards and a TD on 24 opportunities (21 carries, 3 targets) in the Commanders' absolutely dominant 42-14 victory over the Cardinals. Washington was running so hot on the ground that veteran Jeremy McNichols mixed in and scored 2 TDs in their shellacking of Arizona. Austin Ekeler (concussion) wasn’t close to playing in Week 4, but he returned to limited practice on Wednesday. Robinson will live on the high end of the RB2/FLEX radar all year, with Jayden Daniels balling out. The Browns are a middle-of-the-pack run defense right now. He didn’t practice on Wednesday (knee).
Terry McLaurin – After he shredded the Bengals on MNF last week (4/100/1 receiving on six targets) in a game that should have been even bigger – Daniels didn’t see McLaurin running uncovered on a vertical route – we saw the chemistry continue to build in Week 4. Daniels was downright dominant, and McLaurin delivered another useful day, with 7/52/1 receiving on a team-high 10 targets. He’s earned a whopping 32% of the first read targets, with the next closest Commander, Zach Ertz, down at 15%. Only George Pickens (55%) has seen a higher share of his team’s air yards than McLaurin (54%). The usage underneath the hood looks terrific, even on a run-heavy offense. This is a tougher matchup, which lowers McLaurin’s floor a bit.
Jerome Ford – Continued to operate as the lead back in Week 4 with 77% of the snaps. Most of his upside comes on passing downs as Ford has run 48 routes (11 targets) to Foreman’s four (1 target) over the last two weeks. Nick Chubb returned to limited practice on Wednesday, and the Browns have the next three weeks to activate him to the 53-man roster. Ford might get one more week as a borderline bell cow. Backup RB Pierre Strong (hamstring) is also questionable. Washington is allowing the fourth-most scrimmage yards per game (158) to opposing backfields.
David Njoku – Njoku missed his third-straight game nursing a high ankle injury last week, but he’s tracking towards a return. He was back at practice on Wednesday. Even if he’s a little more limited than usual, Njoku is a low-end TE1 at worst this week.
FLEX Plays
Jerry Jeudy – Despite seeing eight fewer targets, Jeudy has more receiving yards (197) than Cooper (148). Obviously, Cooper has left a lot of yards on the field, and he has the far more valuable role by expected fantasy points compared to Jeudy. Through four games, Cooper’a volume is low end WR1 worthy (17.3 XFP/G) while Jeudy (12.4 XFP/G) is well behind. This matchup is so good that Jeudy is on the board as a WR3/FLEX.
Austin Ekeler – Has looked explosive before he went down with a concussion in Week 3. Ekeler is averaging a position-high 9.3 yards per touch. If he’s able to return for Week 5, he’ll rejoin the low-end FLEX radar for PPR leagues. Robinson (knee) didn’t practice on Wednesday.
Sit ‘Em
Deshaun Watson – This is the premier matchup for quarterbacks because the Commanders' secondary is getting cleaned out for a league-high 19.3 passing fantasy points per game. Even with this backdrop, Watson is only a desperation streamer for 1-QB leagues. In his 15 full starts with the Browns, Watson is averaging a pitiful 195.9 passing yards per game (6.0 YPA), and he’s accounted for 21 TDs compared to 15 turnovers. Watson has finished as fantasy’s QB18, QB12, QB15, and QB19 this season. Cleveland is 1-3, with their lone victory coming against the winless Jaguars. Watson is getting pressured on a league-high 48% of his dropbacks because he’s missing LT Jack Conklin (ACL, hamstring), RT Jedrick Wills (knee), and G Wyatt Teller (I.R.). C Ethan Pocic (ankle) is questionable, potentially leaving only G Joel Bitonio as the lone remaining starter.
Zach Ertz
Noah Brown, Luke McCaffrey, Dyami Brown, and Olamide Zaccheus – After lead wideout McLaurin, the Commanders have turned into a four-way rotation with Brown (43% route share) leading the way over McCaffrey (39%), Brown (34%), and Zaccheus (18%) over the last three weeks.
Elijah Moore
Baltimore Ravens at Cincinnati Bengals
Must Start
Lamar Jackson – Averaging a career-high 7.5 YPC and nearly a career-high in rushing yards per game (77). Lamar tallied up 80.4 yards per game on the ground when he won his first MVP in 2019.
Derrick Henry – Over the last two weeks, the Ravens have changed the philosophy of their offense to just pound Henry and Jackson on the ground. Why stop? The Ravens are the most run-heavy team in their last two games – with a -15.9% pass rate under expected – and that has resulted in Derrick Henry trampling the Cowboys and Bills for a combined 49/350/3 rushing (he’s also added 4/33/1 receiving). The Bengals have allowed over 100 rushing yards in four straight games.
Ja’Marr Chase – The Ravens are allowing the sixth-most receiving yards per game (207) to opposing wide receivers aligned out wide or in the slot.
Start ‘Em
Joe Burrow – After a predictable slow start in Week 1, Burrow has finished as fantasy’s QB6, QB6, and QB11 with multiple TDs in each of his last three outings. Baltimore’s secondary held Josh Allen in check last week, but this unit has still regressed year over year. The Ravens are allowing the 10th-most passing fantasy points per game (14.5) and third-most passing yards per game (282).
Tee Higgins – The production hasn’t been stellar by any means, but Higgins’ usage remains strong. In fact, he’s earned two more first-read targets (31% share) than Chase (26%) in Weeks 3-4. He’s a terrific buy-low. Higgins’ role has been worth 17.8 expected fantasy points per game, but he’s only scored 9.5 FPG. Keep going back to him as a WR2/FLEX.
FLEX Plays
Zay Flowers – Even with Andrews and Likely falling out of this offense, Zay Flowers is merely the WR49 by PPR points per game (10.1). It hasn’t helped that Flowers has severely underplayed relative to expectation (14.1 XFP/G). Baltimore shifting so run-heavy has severely impacted Flowers’ volume. When the Ravens do throw, Flowers has earned 29% of the first reads which easily leads the team over Likely (19%) and Rashod Bateman (13%).
Chase Brown and Zack Moss – The Bengals backfield tightened up in Week 4 after Zack Moss worked as a borderline bell cow to open the season. Chase Brown (15/80/2) outrushed Moss (15/50/0), and the second-year RB has clearly earned a larger role. Moss is a trustworthy veteran back, but anyone with eyes can see that Brown is more explosive. The big question here remains Brown’s ability in pass protection, and that will be his final barrier to being the starter. Brown (44%) cut into Moss’ snaps (57%) significantly this past week, and Brown cashed in touchdowns on both of his carries inside-the-5. It was a big change. In Weeks 1-3, Moss played on 76% of the snaps compared to Brown at 24%. I expect that this will be a split backfield moving forward and maintain that Brown has the most long-term upside. Both of these Bengals RBs are on the lower end of the FLEX radar this week. Baltimore is playing stifling run defense and allowing a league-low 2.7 YPC.
Sit ‘Em
Mark Andrews and Isiah Likely – These two have devolved as part-time players in the Ravens run-heavy offense. The Ravens are using FB Patrick Ricard and blocking TE Charlie Kolar to clear paths for Henry. Just how bad is it? Likely has run a route on just 41% of the pass plays, while Andrews has been completely cut out (27% route share) over the last two weeks.
Andrei Iosivas
Rashod Bateman
Mike Gesicki
Stash ‘Em
Erick All – Stash him in TE Premium leagues. Despite running 20 fewer routes over the last two weeks, All has eight targets while Gesicki has six.
Buffalo Bills at Houston Texans
Must Start
Josh Allen
Nico Collins – In his last 11 games with CJ Stroud under center, Collins has racked up 82 receptions for 1,288 yards and 6 TDs on 109 targets. That’s 21.9 PPR points per game. He’s earned at least 22% of Stroud's targets in every game in this span.
Start ‘Em
James Cook
CJ Stroud – We were all over Stroud bouncing back last week, but this is a polar opposite spot. Buffalo is allowing the sixth-fewest fantasy points per dropback and a league-low 5.5 yards per attempt while facing a pretty tough schedule of quarterbacks (Murray, Tagovailoa, Lawrence, and Jackson). You’re still playing Stroud as a QB1 and hoping this game turns into a 50+ point shootout.
Joe Mixon – Mixon missed his second game in a row with a high ankle injury. He returned to a limited practice on Friday and went through a pregame warmup before sitting out against the Jaguars, which gives him his best chance at suiting up to play in weeks. Houston gets Buffalo next after the Bills were just trampled for 199 yards by King Derrick Henry. Once again, Cam Akers was an empty-calorie fantasy option after he split snaps (38%) with Dare Ogunbowale (40%) without Mixon in Week 4.
Stefon Diggs – The Bills are playing two-high safety coverage on 62% of their opponents' passing plays (fourth-highest rate). When facing 2-hi looks, Stroud has treated Collins (26% target share) and Diggs (20%) as his clear top targets whereas Dell (12%) was a distant third in Weeks 1-3. Diggs will be busy underneath out of the slot. Buffalo forces everything to the short and middle areas of the field with their scheme. We see this in our data; 41.1% of the targets the Bills have faced have gone to slot receivers (fourth-highest rate).
Dalton Kincaid – Do you really have a better streaming option? I’d highly doubt it. Kincaid scored a TD in Week 3 (3/41/1 receiving) – which was good enough for a TE5 finish – but he started his season on a dull note beyond that with TE38, TE14, and TE11 scoring weeks. Kincaid’s role has only been worth 7.2 expected PPR points per game (TE16) and his route share (63% | TE20) has not progressed. He’d stand to benefit the most if Shakir (ankle) can’t play.
FLEX Plays
Khalil Shakir – Didn’t practice on Wednesday (ankle). Shakir has continued to lead the Bills in receiving (57.5 yards per game), and he’s emerged as the lead target with a 21% first read share over Kincaid (19%) and Coleman (16%).
Sit ‘Em
Tank Dell – Dell missed this past week while nursing a ribs and hand injury after he got blasted on one of the Texans' final plays of their Week 3 loss at the hands of the Vikings. HC DeMeco Ryans said on Monday that Dell is “day-to-day” this week. That gives him a shot to return in Week 5.
Keon Coleman
Curtis Samuel
Dalton Schultz
Indianapolis Colts at Jacksonville Jaguars
Start ‘Em
Anthony Richardson – Was limited in practice on Wednesday (hip). If he’s able to suit up, Richardson has a high ceiling against this Jaguars defense that’s allowing the second-most passing FP per game (18.4). Jacksonville is playing the most man coverage (46%), and they’re getting shredded to the tune of 283.8 passing yards per game (second-most). Jacksonville’s scheme should help open up the scramble lanes for Richardson since their cornerbacks often have their backs turned to the QB in man-to-man coverage.
Trey Sermon – After suffering a sprained ankle last week, Jonathan Taylor is expected to miss Week 5. He didn’t practice on Wednesday. This leaves only Trey Sermon left in the Colts backfield, with Tyler Goodson to back him up. At worst, Sermon is a volume-based RB2. The Jaguars have been solid against the run with just 3.8 YPC allowed (sixth-fewest).
Brian Thomas – With nine targets in back-to-back games, this is a potential breakout spot for Thomas. The Colts' secondary stands no chance of covering him. Indianapolis is allowing the sixth-most yards per game (122.5) to opposing outside receivers. That’s a great starting point, but this also might be a strong schematic matchup. The Colts are fourth in Cover-3 usage (43%) – it’s a staple of DC Gus Bradley’s defense. It’s a small sample. However, Thomas leads the Jaguars in targets (27% share) and he’s turned his nine looks into 7/127 receiving (3.97 YPRR) against Cover-3.
Evan Engram – Returned to a limited practice on Wednesday. This tight end landscape is a nightmare, but we have to realize the increased competition for targets will likely make Engram more of a low-end fantasy TE1 moving forward. Over the last three weeks, Christian Kirk leads the Jaguars in targets (23% share) over Brian Thomas (20%) and Gabe Davis (17%). Based on how Pederson’s offense runs, Kirk is the most likely receiver to his targets impacted by Engram’s return. This is objectively a great matchup. The Colts have been absolutely hammered by Cole Kmet (10/97/1 receiving) and Steelers TEs (7/88/1) over the last two weeks.
FLEX Plays
Michael Pittman and Josh Downs – Over his last two games since returning to the field, Downs leads the Colts in first read target share (38%) over Pittman (32%). They’re tied in total targets (14) and have nearly identical roles by expected fantasy points (11.7 XFP/G for Pittman | 11.4 XFP/G for Downs). This matchup is incredible against a bad secondary, but the bottom line is that Richardson is struggling as a passer out of the gates. He’s dead last among QBs in off-target throw rate (29%) and turnover-worthy throws (9.6%).
Travis Etienne – Last week marked the first time that Etienne played on fewer than 60% of the Jaguars snaps in 20 straight games. He dealt with a minor shoulder injury in the first quarter, which isn’t a concern long-term. Tank Bigsby is a different looking player now than his rookie season, and he continues to run hard when given opportunities. Through four games, Bigsby has rushed 21 times for 172 yards (8.2 YPC) while averaging 5.2 yards after contact and forcing 0.29 missed tackles per carry. Etienne isn’t running poorly by any means with 47/214/2 rushing (4.6 YPC), but he’s been far less efficient with 2.9 YAC and 0.17 missed tackles forced on a per carry basis. Beyond the increased competition, Jacksonville’s offense is circling the drain and HC Doug Pederson will be on the way out soon. The Jaguars have scored points on just 28% of their possessions (29th). That’s slightly worse than the Patriots and Broncos (29%). Etienne is downgraded further to just a FLEX play moving forward. After getting destroyed in Weeks 1-2 to start the season, the Colts have played really strong run defense even without DT DeForest Buckner over the last two weeks.
Christian Kirk – Leads the team in targets (25) over Thomas (22) and Davis (18) with Engram out over the last three weeks. However, we should be a little concerned that Kirk’s looks dip now that Engram is back. Both of these receivers play in the slot, which will naturally cannibalize their production a bit.
Sit ‘Em
Trevor Lawrence – There’s no way you can trust him, but this is a great matchup because the Colts are struggling to force pressure (26% | second-fewest), and they’ve been soft in coverage (7.8 pass yards per attempt allowed | seventh-most).
Gabe Davis – Has turned his 21 targets into a pitiful 121 yards.
Alec Pierce
Adonai Mitchell
Stash ‘Em
Tank Bigsby
Carolina Panthers at Chicago Bears
Must Start
Diontae Johnson – With competent quarterback play in Andy Dalton over the last two weeks, Johnson has shredded the Raiders for 8/122/1 receiving and the Bengals for 7/83/1. Carolina’s offense is concentrated around Johnson and his whopping 43% first-read target share over the last two weeks. At this point, Johnson is a set-and-forget play with Dalton under center. In fact, Dalton has thrown as many touchdowns (5) in his first two starts as Bryce Young did in his last 13 starts. Carolina is reportedly taking trade offers on Young, according to Fox Sports’ Jay Glazer. A fresh start for everyone involved is clearly best.
Start ‘Em
Chuba Hubbard – The Panthers didn’t open up Jonathon Brooks’ practice window, but he’s been running and cutting in his ramp-up from knee surgery. This means that Hubbard will get another week to operate as the Panthers lead back, and he’s once again at the top of the RB2 radar. Hubbard has scored 27.9 and 22.1 FP over the last two weeks with Dalton under center, and his role only continues to grow. Hubbard’s snaps have increased in four straight games (55% > 59% > 60% > 73%). Chicago’s run defense is allowing the ninth-most YPC (4.7)
D’Andre Swift – After being left for dead, Swift exploded for 165 scrimmage yards and a TD on his 23 touches against the Rams. In his previous three games, Swift turned his 43 touches into 113 scoreless yards. I am not close to trusting Swift, but if you drafted him, you have to be thrilled after his start. Go right back to him as a RB2. Carolina is getting cleaned out for 158.5 scrimmage yards per game to opposing backfields (third-most).
D.J. Moore – In their two games with their trio of receivers together, Moore leads the Bears in routes (88% share) over Allen (70%) and Odunze (68%) as well as targets (14). Allen has earned 11 targets compared to just six for Odunze. By comparison, Moore (35%) and Allen (27%) have dominated first-read targets over the rookie Odunze (9%).
FLEX Plays
Xavier Legette – He made the most of his opportunity last week with Thielen (hamstring) sidelined. Legette stepped up and earned 10 targets (6/66/1 receiving), operating as the clear #2 target behind Johnson. The rookie earned 31% of the first read targets in Week 4 (Johnson: 41%).
Sit ‘Em
Keenan Allen and Rome Odunze – With teammate Moore clearly operating as the lead wideout, I don’t see a path for two Bears receivers to be viable weekly in fantasy in this current situation. OC Shane Waldron has drawn up an ugly-looking offense that often leaves Caleb Williams with no answers in the middle of the field. I truly mean no disrespect to Swift, but he should never lead this team in targets like he did last week (7) with their talent level at wide receiver.
Cole Kmet
Caleb Williams – Has finished outside of the top-20 scoring QBs in three of his first 4 starts.
Andy Dalton – Has finished as fantasy’s QB8 and QB12 in his first two starts. You’re rolling Dalton out again in all SuperFlex leagues, but this is a tough matchup. Chicago has given up the second-fewest passing fantasy points per game (8.0) so far.
Roschon Johnson
Miami Dolphins at New England Patriots
Start ‘Em
De’Von Achane – After racking up 265 scrimmage yards and 2 TDs in Weeks 1-2, Achane’s season has screeched to a halt over the last two weeks with backups under center. Miami is not creating the same amount of space up front through blocking and scheme as they were last year, and it’s further compounded by the fact that they’re not getting passable play from their quarterback. You still can’t take him out of lineups as a RB2. Stud T Terron Armstead (concussion) returned to limited practice on Wednesday.
FLEX Plays
Tyreek Hill – Huntley missed Hill wide open twice for plays that should have gone for two 70-yard bombs against the Titans. Instead, we were left with 4/23 receiving on seven targets. It’s absolutely criminal that a player of his talent level has been reduced to just 7 receptions for 82 yards over the last two weeks with backups under center. Tyler Huntley was charted with a high 22% off-target throw rate and a very wild 9.1% turnover-worthy throw rate last week.
Rhamondre Stevenson and Antonio Gibson – After losing his fourth fumble of the season last week, HC Jerod Mayo said that the Patriots are “considering” using RB Antonio Gibson as the starter. Yikes. This is after the team just lost veteran C David Andrews (shoulder), likely for the season. New England is going to continue to rely heavily on their ground game after they’ve posted pass rates -7% below expected in three of 4 games.
Sit ‘Em
Jaylen Waddle – In five games not started by Tua or Teddy Bridgewater over the last three seasons, Waddle has been held down to 3/23 receiving (on 4 targets), 3/52 (on 5 targets), 5/44 (on 5 targets), 4/26 (on 5 targets), and 4/36 (on 6 targets). Not great.
Raheem Mostert
Ja’Lynn Polk – Polk just set a season-high in routes (82% share) last week and led the team in targets (7) as a result. He remains a solid stash in deep leagues because he might just need solid QB play from Drake Maye later this season to break out.
Demario Douglas
Hunter Henry
Jonnu Smith
Snoop Huntley
Jacoby Brissett
Arizona Cardinals at San Francisco 49ers (4:05p ET)
Must Start
Jordan Mason
George Kittle – Leads all TEs in PPR points per game (14.4). He didn’t practice on Wednesday (ribs).
Start ‘Em
Deebo Samuel – After missing one game with a minor calf injury, Samuel was healthy enough to play his usual role in Week 4. He ran a route on 83% of the 49ers pass plays, earned five targets, and took 2 carries.
Marvin Harrison – The slow start in Week 1 is way behind us now. Over the last three weeks, Harrison has 14/239/4 receiving (20.6 PPR FPG). In their three games together, Harrison (29%) leads McBride (24%) in first-read target share.
James Conner – He bounced back for 113 scrimmage yards and a TD last week, while the rookie Trey Benson also ran pretty well (9/50 rushing). Conner has scored at least once in nine of his last 10 games dating back to last year.
Brock Purdy – Dating back to the end of 2022, Purdy has finished as a top-15 scoring QB in weekly output in 19-of-25 games as the 49ers starter. That’s 76%. Now that he has all of his weapons back in the pass game, Purdy is a borderline must-start QB1 in this spot. Arizona is allowing the sixth-most passing fantasy points per dropback and the second-most pass yards per attempt.
Brandon Aiyuk – It has been a brutal start for Aiyuk after he missed all of training camp (holdout). Through four games, Aiyuk is averaging a career-low 41.8 yards per contest. The production hasn’t been there… yet. He remains an excellent buy-low from two primary angles. Aiyuk has underperformed in fantasy football by -5.3 expected PPR points per game based on his role (12.7 XFP/G), which will reverse soon. Most importantly, there have been no signs that Aiyuk’s skills have fallen off. Quite the opposite. Aiyuk is tied with Chris Olave (0.26 A.S.S.) in average separation score among wide receivers (third-best), and he’s posted the best win rate (33%) on his routes. This has the makings of a great bounce-back game. Arizona’s secondary is allowing a receiver to get open or wide open on a league-high 68% of their opponents' pass plays.
Trey McBride – McBride missed Week 4 after sustaining a concussion at the end of their game in Week 3. He should return for the Cardinals date against the 49ers coming up, provided that he clears through the league’s protocol. Arizona’s passing offense was in disarray without McBride’s presence in the middle of the field to help dictate coverage against Washington. In his first two games, McBride was TE1 in target share (29%) and TE3 in route share (80%). That’s a recipe to be the #1 tight end this season. 49ers stud LB Fred Warner (ankle) is questionable.
Kyler Murray – The Cardinals smoked the Rams' weak secondary two weeks ago, but it has otherwise been a slow start for Murray in fantasy. He finished as the QB1 in Week 2 against Los Angeles and has QB15, QB16, and QB21 scoring weeks to show for his other three games. In his three starts against Buffalo, Detroit, and Washington, Murray has completed 67% of his passes but for just 5.9 passing yards per attempt. Yikes. This was a primo matchup for Murray to go off in a shootout with the Commanders, but their pass offense laid another egg. OC Drew Petzing is one of the best run game coordinators in the league, but we’re left wanting way more with their passing attack. Murray remains on the lower-end QB1 radar because of his legs, although he didn’t run at all last week against Washington. Murray added an incredibly efficient 161 yards rushing on just 115 carries in Weeks 1-3.
FLEX Plays
Jauan Jennings – His routes were cut down (64% share) last week, but he still led the 49ers in targets (6). He’s a lot thinner with Deebo, Aiyuk, and Kittle all healthy. However, this matchup – and potential shootout – leaves him on the lower end of the WR3/FLEX radar.
Sit ‘Em
Michael Wilson
Greg Dortch
Trey Benson
Las Vegas Raiders at Denver Broncos (4:05p ET)
Start ‘Em
Brock Bowers – Gardner Minshew predictably struggled without Davante Adams up against the Browns' strong defense last week, and Bowers ended with a disappointing game (2/19 receiving on three targets) as a result. His role increased dramatically, though. That’s a great sign. Bowers route share in Week 4 marked a season-high (77%). TE Michael Mayer (personal) is questionable. Denver has allowed the seventh-most receptions to tight ends.
Courtland Sutton – Remains the only show in town here. Through the opening four games, Sutton has earned 33% of the first-read targets and a whopping 49% of the Broncos air yards. By expected fantasy points, Sutton’s role has been really strong (17.5 XFP/G | WR7), but he’s been held back by poor QB play. Just 54% of Sutton’s targets have been charted as catchable, which is the lowest rate among 70 qualified WRs. The good news? This is a good matchup. The Raiders are allowing +7.6 schedule-adjusted PPR points per game to opposing wideouts (fifth-most).
FLEX Plays
Jakobi Meyers – In his first game without Adams last week, Meyers led the team in targets (10) and first reads (45% share) over Tre Tucker (6 targets | 30% FR share). Meyers has now seen six or more targets in 9-of-19 games with the Raiders. When he earns six or more looks, he averages 6.1 receptions and 60.2 yards per game. Unfortunately, Meyers' outlook is lowered considerably here because he’ll catch shadow coverage from Pat Surtain.
Javonte Williams – This backfield shifted to Williams last week after Tyler Badie (back) suffered a scary-looking injury early in the game. Badie will likely head to injured reserve. Teammate Jaleel McLaughlin is off to a slow opening month in his own right. He’s tallied just 94 scrimmage yards on 34 touches. This matchup is just so good that it boosts Williams up considerably even after his shaky start. The Raiders are getting crushed for a league-high 5.4 YPC, and EDGE Maxx Crosby (ankle) is in danger of missing another game.
Tre Tucker – With Adams out and Meyers getting shadow treatment from Surtain, the Raiders will continue to keep Tucker heavily involved. He was targeted six times (5/41 receiving) and he took a three-yard reverse for a rushing TD last week.
Sit ‘Em
Davante Adams – Will miss his second straight game with a “hamstring” injury that can only heal if he gets traded.
Zamir White and Alex Mattison
Jaleel McLaughlin
Josh Reynolds
Bo Nix
Gardner Minshew
Green Bay Packers at Los Angeles Rams (4:25p ET)
Must Start
Kyren Williams
Jayden Reed – Over his last 10 regular season games with Love under center, Jayden Reed has tallied up 52/737/7 receiving (on 68 targets) while adding 11/135/3 rushing. That’s 19.9 PPR points per game.
Jordan Love – The Rams are getting absolutely shredded through the air to the tune of 9.1 yards per attempt (most). Love has opened his fantasy season with QB11 and QB2 scoring weeks.
Start ‘Em
Josh Jacobs – This backfield was nearly a direct split in terms of carries last week. Jacobs took nine carries, while Wilson had 8 totes. HC Matt LaFleur has always preferred a committee, and we’re seeing that take hold again, even with injuries to Marshawn Lloyd and A.J. Dillon. Through four games, Jacobs is only the RB23 in expected PPR points per game (13.8). He hasn’t scored a TD yet, but this is clearly a spot for that to change. The Rams are giving up a league-high 131 rushing yards per game, and they’ve already allowed 5 TDs on the ground.
Dontayvion Wicks – With Christian Watson (ankle) sidelined, we’re going to see Wicks unleashed in a full-time role as the Packers' Z-receiver. Reed plays in the slot while Doubs is locked in as the X-receiver. It’s an exciting bump for a talented player. Wicks’ average separation score (0.19 A.S.S.) is 15th-best among receivers this season, and this is after he led the Packers in A.S.S. last year (0.11). Watson got hurt after running four routes last week. Wicks ended up leading the team in first read targets (31% share) over Doubs and Reed (19%). Los Angeles is getting absolutely crushed for a league-high 2.68 yards per route run to receivers aligned out wide. I’m playing Wicks as a WR2.
FLEX Plays
Romeo Doubs – He’s earned 7 and 8 targets in two starts with Love. The results (4/50 and 4/39 receiving) haven’t been great, but this matchup is just so juicy. Doubs is back on the board as a WR3/FLEX.
Jordan Whittington and Tutu Atwell – We saw the Rams change up their receiver rotation in Week 4, with Whittington leading the team in routes (88% share) and targets (8) after he was barely involved in Week 3. However, this was the third straight game in which Atwell led or tied for the team lead in first read target share. Both of these receivers are interesting WR3/FLEX options up against the Packers' burnable secondary. Green Bay has allowed a wide-open or open receiver on 57% of their coverage snaps (third-highest rate). CB Jaire Alexander (groin) is questionable.
Stream ‘Em
Tucker Kraft – We saw a big change in the Packers TE rotation last week after Kraft and Luke Musgrave split work in Weeks 1-3. Last week, Kraft broke free and ran a route on 84% of Green Bay’s pass plays against the Vikings. The result was 6/53/1 receiving on nine targets. It was a big change. Kraft’s route share to open the season was just 51%. Half of the battle in fantasy football this season is just getting a tight end to play a full-time role, and with this change, I’m immediately treating Kraft as a low-end TE1 streamer. This is a great matchup. Los Angeles has allowed an incredibly efficient 17/207/1 receiving (on 18 targets) to tight ends this season.
Sit ‘Em
Colby Parkinson – Has 8 receptions for 66 yards over the last three games.
Demarcus Robinson – Has earned just 11 targets over the last three weeks without Kupp/Nacua.
Matthew Stafford
Stash ‘Em
Emmanuel Wilson
New York Giants at Seattle Seahawks (4:25p ET)
Must Start
Ken Walker – Has tallied up 109 and 116 scrimmage yards in his two full games this season. Walker was a little bit more limited last week – he split snaps 60% to 40% with Charbonnet – but it did not matter. He’s too good. The Giants have played poor run defense so far (5.1 YPC allowed | seventh-most).
DK Metcalf – New York is giving up the sixth-most schedule-adjusted FP above average (+6.1) to opposing outside receivers. After a slow Week 1 in shadow coverage against Pat Surtain, the last three weeks have been lights out. Metcalf has a monster 21/337/2 receiving over his last three games. He should have had another TD last week after he was tackled at the half-yard line.
Start ‘Em
Geno Smith – Has opened the fantasy season with three top-8 weekly finishes in four games despite throwing only 4 TDs. This is another good spot to keep riding Smith as a lower-end QB1. The Giants have allowed 14.5 passing FP per game (10th-best) in the opening month.
Devin Singletary – Dealing with a groin injury, but has a chance to play. If he’s able to suit up, go right back to him as a RB2/FLEX. Seattle’s defensive line is all sorts of beat up after DT Leonard Williams, DT Byron Murphy, and EDGE Boye Mafe all missed Week 3.
FLEX Plays
Wan’Dale Robinson – Will be the lead target with Nabers (concussion) sidelined. Robinson has been the PPR scam in fantasy football this season with 37 targets and 26 receptions but for just 194 yards. The volume will be there, but this is a brutally tough matchup for the Giants slot receiver against Devon Witherspoon. Seattle is allowing a league-low 1.01 yards per route run to slot receivers.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba – One of the most inconsistent receivers right now. JSN has earned 2, 16, 3, and 12 targets through four games. This is an easier matchup on paper for Metcalf and Lockett, relatively speaking. The Giants' perimeter cornerbacks stand no chance at covering Metcalf in particular.
Tyler Lockett
Sit ‘Em
Malik Nabers – A “long shot” to play (concussion) per ESPN’s Jordan Raanan.
Daniel Jones – SuperFlex only.
Darius Slayton
Zach Charbonnet
Noah Fant
Theo Johnson
Stash ‘Em
Tyrone Tracy
Dallas Cowboys at Pittsburgh Steelers (SNF)
Must Start
CeeDee Lamb
Jake Ferguson – Leads all tight ends in targets per route run (0.29), and he’s fourth in first read target share (20%). After dealing with a knee injury sustained in Week 1, Ferguson’s role was back to normal last week. He ran a route on 79% of the Cowboys pass plays in Week 4. This gives him a runway to legitimately push as the fantasy TE1.
Start ‘Em
Justin Fields – We were all over Fields’ breakout performance last week in an easy matchup against the Colts. The momentum was building. Fields looks much improved as a passer, largely because he’s getting the ball out significantly faster now (2.7-second time to throw) compared to last year (3.0 TTT) in Chicago. It has resulted in far fewer sacks and negative plays. Fields is also throwing well to further help matters. Our charting team has Fields with a 57% highly accurate throw rate, which is third-best behind pocket passers Dalton and Tagovailoa. I think that Fields has massive upside in fantasy football for the rest of the season, and he’ll get a chance to continue the positive trend against a Dallas defense that will be missing EDGE Micah Parsons and DL DeMarcus Lawrence. The Cowboys allowed Daniel Jones to throw for 281 yards last week, and he can’t complete a pass more than 20 yards down the field.
Najee Harris – Pittsburgh will be down to just Harris after Cordarrelle Patterson suffered an ankle injury last week. Patterson didn’t practice on Wednesday. Meanwhile, Jaylen Warren missed Week 4 with knee injury, and Steelers beat reporter Mark Kaboly said on The Fan morning show that he’d be “stunned” if Warren plays against the Cowboys this week. This means that Harris will play nearly every snap against Dallas. He’s still just an RB2 after flopping so hard last week in a premier spot.
George Pickens – Delivered in a pristine matchup last week (7/113 receiving), and this looks like another spot for Pickens to get loose. Pittsburgh being down Warren and Patterson in the backfield may force them to throw a bit more than usual, too. The Cowboys' defense has regressed severely. Dallas is allowing the eighth-most yards per route run (2.28) to opposing outside receivers.
Dak Prescott – After a slow Week 1 against a tough Browns defense, Prescott has played pretty well over the last three weeks. Dak has finished as fantasy’s QB14, QB2, and QB12 in this span. Prescott was on fire against the Giants on Thursday last week, showcasing pinpoint accuracy on his throws. This is a tougher matchup, but the Steelers also haven’t faced a strong passing attack yet after facing Kirk Cousins making his debut, Bo Nix, Justin Herbert, and Anthony Richardson/Joe Flacco in their first four games. I’m playing Prescott as a lower end QB1.
FLEX Plays
Rico Dowdle – Ezekiel Elliott’s snaps have fallen in four straight games (50% > 42% > 20% > 18%). The Cowboys are giving Dowdle a legitimate chance to become their starter, but this will likely always be a rotation of some sort. FB Hunter Luepke (13) ran more routes than Dowdle (9) last week. Pittsburgh’s front seven is playing amazing run defense to start the season (3.5 YPC allowed | fourth-fewest).
Sit ‘Em
Jalen Tolbert
Brandin Cooks – Will miss a few weeks with a knee infection.
Jaylen Warren
Calvin Austin
New Orleans Saints at Kansas City Chiefs (MNF)
This game will be added shortly.
