Welcome to Week 3 Start ‘Em, Sit ‘Em.
This game-by-game article breaks down every player that is relevant for fantasy football. As always, please use our projections to make your start/sit decisions every week. The analysis in this piece provides color – and a lot of stats – behind the projections.
Unless stated otherwise, all of the data in this article is from Fantasy Points Data and specifically curated from the Data Suite. Our collection team has charted every play from every game over the last three seasons, and we will have fresh, weekly data imported into the tools on Tuesday mornings after the games.
The Start’ Em, Sit ‘Em key
Must Start — Don’t take them out of your lineup, even if there is a fire.
Start ‘Em — The top-12 at QB and TE; top-20 plays at RB; top-25 at WR.
FLEX Plays — All of the best RB2/WR3 plays.
Stream ‘Em — The best one-week plays at QB and TE for streaming off of your bench or the waiver wire.
Sit ‘Em — Don’t play them in your lineups. This could be due to a poor role, matchup, or performance.
Stash ‘Em — Step 1: Hold them on your bench. Step 2: Profit. (See: Jordan Mason, Week 1)
Good luck this week!
New England Patriots at New York Jets (TNF)
Must Start
Breece Hall – Leads all RBs in target share (24%), followed by Kamara (20%), Achane (18%), and Robinson (18%).
Rhamondre Stevenson – His usage and performance have been incredible so far, which bumps Stevenson up into Must Start range on this injury-riddled Week 3 slate. Stevenson isn’t coming off of the field on passing downs. The only RB that has run a route more often on their team’s pass plays than Stevenson (70.5% route share) is Bijan Robinson (72.9% route share). By expected fantasy points, only De’Von Achane (23.4 PPR XFP/G) has a stronger role than Stevenson (22.5 XFP/G). The Jets allowed a whopping 325 scrimmage yards to RBs in Weeks 1-2.
Start ‘Em
Garrett Wilson – Tied as the WR6 in first-read target share (35%) with Rashee Rice. The volume is always strong. We still just need some touchdowns here. Wilson has just seven career TDs on 332 targets across 36 games. Patriots CB Christian Gonzalez will shadow. Gonzalez played really well against Ja’Marr Chase in Week 1 but he was shredded by D.K. Metcalf in Week 2 (h/t Chris Wecht).
Stream ‘Em
Hunter Henry – It’s not a high bar to cross, but Henry has quickly emerged as a low-end fantasy TE1. He’s available in 55% of leagues on Yahoo and 66% on ESPN. The usage is amazing. Over the first two weeks of the season, Henry leads all tight ends in route share (86.9%), and he’s second only to Trey McBride (28.8%) in target share (Henry: 27.5%).
Sit ‘Em
Patriots WRs – There just aren’t enough targets to go around, and this is a brutal matchup. CB Sauce Gardner will get his running mate D.J. Reed (knee) back this week after Reed missed Week 2. Gardner gave up 5/97/1 on six targets in his primary coverage last week.
Aaron Rodgers – SuperFlex only. Rodgers is getting the ball out incredibly fast (2.31 second time to throw | fifth-fastest) and not pushing down the field (6.5 average depth of throw | 10th-lowest).
Allen Lazard and Mike Williams – As expected, Williams (55% route share) played far more in Week 2, which cut into Lazard’s role. Williams remains a solid stash long-term. This is a spot for Williams to potentially get even more involved with Wilson covered by Christian Gonzalez.
Antonio Gibson
Jacoby Brissett – No quarterback is throwing deep less often than Brissett (3.9% of passes are 20+ air yards).
Tyler Conklin
Stash’ Em
Braelon Allen – The handcuff to Hall.
Ja’Lynn Polk – Talented. He ranks among the top-20 receivers in average separation score and route win rate on his small sample of 38 routes. He always striked me as a late season breakout type of rookie this summer.
Chicago Bears at Indianapolis Colts
Must Start
Jonathan Taylor — He didn’t play in the 4th quarter as the Colts were in catch-up mode. HC Shane Steichen does a lot of great things, but this is just overthinking it. Why take your best offensive weapon off of the field in crunch time in favor of Trey Sermon? Here’s the good news: Taylor saw four targets last week, and he looks incredible after trampling the Packers for 135 scrimmage yards on just 14 touches. Let’s keep in mind that he led all RBs in snaps in Week 1 at 95%. I’m holding strong that Taylor remains an RB1.
Start ‘Em
Anthony Richardson – Sure, this is a tougher matchup against a talented defense. We’ll need to see Richardson start dialing things in as a passer, too. However, I will never move him any lower than QB9 or QB10 on any slate. The rushing upside is too great. In 19 quarters of work in his young career – basically 4.75 games – Richardson has rushed 35 times for 229 yards and 5 TDs. That equates to 11.1 rushing fantasy points per game.
D.J. Moore – Stuck in QB jail again. No quarterback has thrown a catchable pass less often than Caleb Williams (63.6%) through two games. The only good news is that Moore has been funneled 30% and 32% of the first-read targets in Weeks 1-2. The Colts have allowed a monster 24/290/3 receiving (on 31 targets) to opposing wide receivers so far and that at least gives Moore a soft matchup to keep him alive as a low-end WR2. Keenan Allen (heel) is out.
FLEX Plays
D’Andre Swift – His role has been strong. The production has not. Swift has played on 69% of the Bears' snaps and handled 24-of-31 RB carries (77.4%), but he has just 48 yards rushing to show for it. Yikes. Last week was a brutal matchup against a Houston front seven that simply overwhelmed Chicago in the trenches. This is a polar opposite matchup. The Colts have been shredded for 88/432/1 rushing (4.9 YPC). If he can’t get it done here, we’ll likely see more of Khalil Herbert moving forward. Swift is on the low-end RB2/FLEX radar once again.
Sit ‘Em
Michael Pittman – I was fading Pittman hard this season (48 overall rank | 35 ADP) and came out of Weeks 1-2 even more concerned about his outlook. By expected fantasy points, Pittman (12.2 XFP per game) and Alec Pierce (12.2) have identically valuable roles followed closely by Adonai Mitchell (10.4). Plus, stud second-year WR Josh Downs (ankle) still has yet to take the field. Pittman’s volume isn’t safe long-term. He’s a shaky WR3 up against a tough Bears secondary.
Caleb Williams – It’s been a rough opening stretch for Williams. The Bears offensive line is struggling badly and Williams’ accuracy isn’t dialed in yet. Through two weeks, Chicago is the third-worst offensive line by pressures allowed over expectation. The good news? Indianapolis has one of the league’s weakest pass rushes. The Colts have forced the fifth-lowest pressure rate at just 25.5%. He has no answers for pressure right now and his numbers show extremely poor efficiency without a clean pocket (26% completion rate | 2.3 YPA | 2 INTs | 8 sacks on 32 dropbacks).
Keenan Allen – Didn’t practice all of last week or this week while dealing with a heel injury.
Rome Odunze – After injuring his knee in Week 1, it’s a great sign that he was healthy enough to run a route on 83% of the Bears pass plays in Week 2.
Adonai Mitchell – The most likely Colt WR to see a reduction in snaps with Downs back. Mitchell has predominantly lined up in the slot, which is Downs’ main role.
Alec Pierce – His skill set meshes with Richardson so well, but we’re going to see targets split between four receivers on a low-volume Colts attack.
Cole Kmet
Stash ‘Em
Josh Downs – Stash in deeper PPR leagues. In their first eight games before Downs’ knee injury that he suffered midseason last year, Pittman out-targeted Downs 74 to 54, but only marginally beat Downs in yards per game (66.1 to 59.1). By expected fantasy points per route run, Pittman and Downs had identical scores (0.42). He’s going to play a big role in this offense when he’s able to return.
Khalil Herbert
New York Giants at Cleveland Browns
Start ‘Em
Malik Nabers – Just absolutely eviscerated the Commanders’ league-worst secondary for 10/127/1 receiving (on 18 targets). After seeing fewer targets than pint-size Wan’Dale Robinson in Week 1, Daniel Jones and the Giants quickly corrected course and just funneled the ball to Nabers in Week 2. Their schedule gets considerably more difficult coming up (vs. Browns, Cowboys, Seahawks, and Bengals), however Nabers can overcome that with this insane volume. Nabers earned 68.2% of the Giants' first read targets in Week 2, which tied Garrett Wilson for the highest share of FR in a single game since 2021, according to our FP Data. Through two games, Nabers is second in targets (25) and fourth in the NFL in receiving (193 yards) behind only Nico Collins (252), Jameson Williams (200), and Chris Godwin (200). This is a tough matchup against a very good secondary and pass rush that will confuse his QB, but you’re not moving off of Nabers here.
FLEX Plays
Devin Singletary – Only six RBs have played on a higher rate of their team’s snaps so far than Singletary (76.5%). The Giants are tied with the Patriots for the lowest implied team total on the slate (16.25 points) – so we can’t expect a big ceiling here – but Singletary’s consistent volume will keep him on the board as an RB2/FLEX all season long.
Amari Cooper – Across 13 full starts as a Brown, Deshaun Watson is averaging 197.5 passing yards per game (6.2 YPA) with a 15:10 TD-to-INT ratio. The only thing that he’s doing that’s remotely usable for fantasy is with his legs. Watson has added 59 yards on 10 carries through two games and he scored a one-yard TD on a designed QB draw against Jacksonville. Cooper isn’t playing up to his usual standard – he had another bad drop against the Jaguars (three total this season) – but he’s really being dragged down by his quarterback here. According to our FP Data, just 58.8% of Cooper’s 17 targets have been catchable, and that’s the fifth-lowest rate among 45 WRs with at least 10 looks so far. The only good news here is that the Browns upcoming schedule is gorgeous (vs. Giants, Raiders, Commanders, and Eagles). Cooper just air-balled in a great matchup, though. He’s WR11 in expected fantasy points per game (16.3 PPR), but he has just 5 receptions for 27 yards.
Jerome Ford – After playing on 75% of the snaps in Week 1, Jerome Ford’s role was cut in half last week by D’Onta Foreman. This came out of nowhere after Foreman barely played in Week 1. The Browns split snaps (44% to 38%) in favor of Ford. However, Foreman doubled up Ford in carries (14 to 7). The thing is, Foreman didn’t run well (14/42 rushing), and he nearly cost the Browns offense points with a fumble at the goal line. Jerome Ford looked far better, but he only got eight touches (64 yards). This situation quickly devolved from Ford looking like a borderline bell cow to a full-blown committee. Pierre Strong (hamstring) is questionable for Week 3. Nick Chubb can return off of the PUP list as early as Week 5. We’ll see if Foreman continues to stay involved after his poor showing, but this is undeniably an amazing spot for this backfield as 6-point home favorites against the Giants.
Sit ‘Em
David Njoku – Unlikely to play on Sunday. HC Kevin Stefanski said that Njoku is still “week to week” while he nurses his ankle injury. Njoku won’t go on injured reserve but he was never close to playing in Week 2. Edwin Porras suspects that he suffered a dreaded high ankle sprain, which could linger into October.
Jerry Jeudy – With Njoku out again, Jeudy is on the board as a WR4. He has earned 8 and 6 targets in his two games as a Brown so far.
Daniel Jones – No thank you against this defense. SuperFlex only.
Deshaun Watson – SuperFlex only.
Wan’Dale Robinson
D’Onta Foreman
Elijah Moore
Philadelphia Eagles at New Orleans Saints
Must Start
Jalen Hurts – The speed in the open field is back. Hurts has carried the ball 13 times in back-to-back games, adding 118 yards (4.5 YPC) and 1 TD with his legs. This is much closer to his “norm” than last year when he dealt with nagging knee swelling. Hurts averaged 51.5 rushing yards per game in 2021-22 before dipping to just 35.6 YPG last season.
Alvin Kamara – Leads all RBs in scrimmage yards (290). Kamara is averaging 6.9 yards per touch, which would be the second-best clip of his career and only bested by his absurd rookie season (7.7 yards per touch). RB/TE Taysom Hill (chest) likely won’t play.
Saquon Barkley – Has racked up 132 and 116 scrimmage yards in Weeks 1-2.
DeVonta Smith – He’s played in two games without A.J. Brown (hamstring) since Brown was traded to the Eagles. Smith went off for 8/148 receiving on 12 targets in the Wild Card game last year (vs. Buccaneers) and just tallied up 7/76/1 receiving (10 targets) against the Falcons. Smith was Hurts’ first-read on 36.8% of his dropbacks in Week 2, and he garnered 42.9% of the FR looks in the Wild Card game last postseason. That's an elite WR1-level of volume.
Start ‘Em
Chris Olave – Looks terrific by A.S.S. – that’s the receiver’s average separation score on all routes – with a 0.38 score through Weeks 1-2. That trails only Mike Evans (0.57 A.S.S.) and George Pickens (0.39). Olave will eventually have to draw a bunch of targets in a closer game because the Saints have spent the last two weeks just absolutely rinsing the Panthers and Cowboys by a 91-29 margin.
Rashid Shaheed – I was tabbing Shaheed as just a really good WR3/FLEX for this season, but there is more meat on the bone here. Through two games, Shaheed has run the same number of routes (32) and has one more target (9 to 8) than Olave. He also leads the team in first-reads (27% share) over Kamara (23%) and Olave (20%) while dominating the majority of air yards (44% share) over Olave (24% share of air yards). This type of usage makes Shaheed more of a WR2.
Dallas Goedert – The good news? Goedert’s 89% route share ranked TE2 behind Hunter Henry (91%) in Week 2. The bad news? He earned just four targets in a game where Hurts played really well and threw it 30 times against Atlanta. Tight end is so gross right now that Goedert remains a low-end starter at worst with Brown sidelined.
Stream ‘Em
Derek Carr – I didn’t have Carr as QB2 in FPG (22.1) on my bingo card, but we did spend all offseason outlining just how much having some structure will help this offense as a whole. The early results have obviously been terrific. HC Klint Kubiak is using motion at the league’s fourth-highest rate (72%) and changing up his personnel looks frequently to keep defenses off balance. The Eagles' pass rush is bottom-10 in pressure rate, while their secondary has allowed 7.83 passing yards per attempt (seventh-most) and 4 TDs to Kirk Cousins and Jordan Love in Weeks 1-2. In fact, only the Commanders (21.4) are allowing more passing fantasy points per game (17.5) than the Eagles are so far. Carr is the best streaming play in 1-QB leagues and looks like gold in SuperFlex formats.
Sit ‘Em
A.J. Brown – Didn’t play Week 2. Set to miss “multiple weeks” with a hamstring injury.
Taysom Hill – Dealing with a chest injury.
Jahan Dotson – Saw one target in Week 2 despite running a route on 80% of the pass plays. At least he got his cardio in.
Los Angeles Chargers at Pittsburgh Steelers
Start ‘Em
J.K. Dobbins – Defying the odds of not one but two major injuries. Dobbins tore up his knee in the preseason of 2021 and then injured his Achilles in Week 1 last year. After shredding the Raiders in Week 1, Dobbins blew up for 17/131/1 rushing in a perfect matchup against the league’s weakest front seven. Through two weeks, Dobbins is RB5 in fantasy points per game (21.5) as the lead back of the Chargers run-heavy offense. Justin Herbert has thrown just 46 passes after he averaged 39.1 pass attempts per game to start his career. Los Angeles has gone 58% run-heavy in two games they’ve largely controlled against the Raiders and Panthers. Dobbins likely won’t see as good of a game script against his next two opponents – Steelers and Chiefs – but there is a clear talent gap between him and teammate Gus Edwards. In fact, Edwards (29/85 rushing, 3.2 YPC) looks painfully sluggish compared to Dobbins. Dobbins is likely to remain in some sort of committee with either Edwards or another RB. Might Kimani Vidal make his debut soon after he’s been a healthy scratch? Regardless, Dobbins has handled 59% and 48% of the snaps in back-to-back games, and he looks incredible. No running back has forced more missed tackles per carry (0.33) than Dobbins. Promisingly, Dobbins has clearly emerged as the passing down RB with 24 routes to Edwards' 10. He’s an RB2 at worst for Week 3.
FLEX Plays
George Pickens – Gets a far easier matchup after seeing shadow coverage from Broncos CB Pat Surtain last week. Pickens looks explosive and like a big play waiting to happen, which gives him a ton of upside as a borderline WR2. Volume remains a huge concern here. Justin Fields has thrown just 20 and 23 passes and Pittsburgh is 30th in pass rate under expectation (-9.9%). The positive side of things is that Pickens is the only show in town and getting fed 32.3% of the first-read targets (WR16).
Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren – As expected, the Steelers backfield was much more of a committee in Week 2. Warren is fully back from his hamstring strain in August. This duo split snaps (50% to 45%) and carries (17 to 9) last week – both in favor of Harris. Interestingly, Warren played 4 snaps to Harris’ 2 in the red zone. These Steeler RBs are on the low end of the FLEX radar for Week 3.
Sit ‘Em
Quentin Johnston – Will face shadow coverage from Steelers CB Joey Porter Jr, especially if Josh Palmer is out. Johnston leads the team in first-read targets (38.5%) share over Ladd McConkey (19.2%).
Ladd McConkey – The Chargers pass offense is what we expected. This attack is just going to be extremely low volume. Los Angeles leads the league in run rate on first down (72%). McConkey would get a boost in target share if Palmer is out, but he’s still just a WR4 in this extremely slow-paced, low-scoring game environment.
Josh Palmer – Dealing with multiple injuries (elbow/calf).
Gus Edwards
Justin Herbert – Dealing with an ankle injury to the same right foot that gave him issues in early August. The Steelers are allowing the third-fewest passing fantasy points per game (8.0).
Justin Fields – Has attempted just 20 and 23 passes in his first two starts. The Steelers are 30th in pass rate under expectation (-9.9%). This thin level of volume will make Fields a tricky player to figure out when to stream this season. I’m leaving him as a sit for a third-straight week in this extremely low total game (35.5 over/under).
Pat Freiermuth
Houston Texans at Minnesota Vikings
Must Start
Justin Jefferson – Thigh injury seems like no big deal long-term. D.J. Moore got the best of Texans CB Derek Stingley last week – h/t Data analyst Steve O’Rourke – but his QB couldn’t hit him. Darnold will find Jefferson repeatedly on Sunday. Through two games, only Carr (89.7%) has delivered a catchable pass to his receivers more often than Darnold (86%).
Nico Collins – Didn’t practice on Wednesday (hip, foot) but is expected to play (per Aaron Wilson). In his last nine games with Stroud under center, Collins has piled up 64 receptions for 1,051 yards and 5 TDs on 84 targets. That’s 21.2 PPR points per game. He’s seen at least 22% of Stroud's targets in every game in this span and Collins has earned 33% of the first-read targets this season compared to 21% for Diggs and 15.4% for Dell.
Start ‘Em
C.J. Stroud – Through two games, Stroud has finished as fantasy football’s QB8 and QB16 in FP scored.
Aaron Jones – Houston is playing some of the league’s best run defense once again. After holding opposing RBs to the second-fewest YPC and 10th-lowest explosive run rate (of 15+ yards) last season, the Texans just stoned the Colts and Bears run games to 2.7 YPC on 37 carries. The good news for Jones’ outlook in fantasy is that he’ll remain highly involved in the pass game. Ty Chandler (10) outcarried Jones (9), but Jones’ 5/36 receiving (six targets) bailed us out. It’s a good sign for his TD upside that he’s played on 73% of the Vikings snaps inside-the-10 through two games. Don’t pull Jones out of your RB2 slot.
FLEX Plays
Stefon Diggs and Tank Dell – These two are clearly the secondary options in this offense, with Collins looking even better now than last season. By expected fantasy points, Dell (11.3 PPR XFP per game) and Diggs (11.2 XFP) are WR3 right now. Dell is an obvious buy-low after just missing on a few big plays from Stroud. The Vikings are going to do what they do: Blitz and play two-high safety coverage behind it so they don’t leave their cornerbacks on islands. No defense is playing 2-hi coverage more often than Minnesota (72.7%). Against these looks, Collins (31.3% target share) leads the way against two-high safety shell coverage, followed by Dell (15.6% TS) and Diggs (12.5%).
Stream ‘Em
Sam Darnold – The second-best QB streamer in 1-QB leagues on the slate after Carr. SuperFlex league players found gold with Darnold on the cheap in drafts. HC Kevin O’Connell is a terrific coach and has created such a solid infrastructure around WR Justin Jefferson that it just takes reasonably consistent QB play to get strong fantasy results in this current low-scoring environment. To start his season off, Darnold has finished as the QB13 and QB5 in FP in Weeks 1-2. All-world WR Justin Jefferson’s injury is not a concern long-term after he got leg-whipped in the thigh while blocking last week. This game has obvious shootout appeal (46 over/under).
Sit ‘Em
Cam Akers – There are so many good RB plays this week that Akers just seems a bit thin compared to the top-30. This is also a tough matchup against the Vikings strong run defense. Akers will get early-down work with Joe Mixon (ankle) out. Passing down RB Dare Ogunbowale will play more, too. Ogunbowale (10) ran more routes than Akers (6) last week.
Dalton Schultz – Was a little more limited than usual last week while nursing a minor ankle injury. Schultz’s route share dipped slightly from 76% to 69% from Week 1 to 2. He’s fifth on the team in targets (6) behind Collins, Dell, Diggs, and Mixon.
Jordan Addison – Will not play again after missing Week 2. It has been a rough start for the second-year Vikings receiver. Addison suffered another ankle sprain in Week 1 – this time, it was to his right foot. Addison missed practice time in August due to a left ankle sprain.
Stash ‘Em
Jalen Nailor – Good player with good contingent upside if Jefferson and/or Addison miss time this season. Nailor is on the WR3/FLEX radar on this weakened Week 3 slate for receivers after injuries have thinned out the position in the early stages.
Ty Chandler
Denver Broncos at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Must Start
Chris Godwin – No receiver has scored more PPR points through two weeks than Godwin (47.0).
Start ‘Em
Baker Mayfield – No team is blitzing more often than the Broncos (55.5% of opponents dropbacks). When he’s been blitzed this season, Mayfield has arguably been the best QB in football with a 138.4 passer rating. Only Josh Allen has a better small-sample passer rating when blitzed. Overall, Mayfield is 18-of-23 passing for 236 yards (10.3 YPA) and 2 TDs and 0 INT (three sacks) vs. blitzes.
Mike Evans – No receiver has created more separation on their routes by average separation score (0.57 A.S.S.) than Evans. He’s got the ability to win any matchup, but he’s bound to catch shadow coverage from Broncos stud CB Pat Surtain this week, which knocks down his projection just a bit.
Rachaad White – Dealing with a minor groin injury. Denver isn’t getting gashed like last season, but they’ve still given up a healthy 56/229/1 rushing to Seahawks and Steelers RBs in Weeks 1-2. Bucky Irving has cut into White’s early-down carries as the duo has split work 25 carries to 16, but White continues to dominate passing and red-zone duties. White has taken 100% of the snaps inside-the-20, and he’s run 35 routes to Irving’s 12. White is a high-end RB2 at worst in this premier setup, with the Buccaneers pegged as -6.5 favorites.
FLEX Plays
Javonte Williams – Saw a big increase in usage in Week 2. After splitting the work with Jaleel McLaughlin in the opener, Williams handled 16 opportunities (11 carries, 5 targets) while McLaughlin got three carries and wasn’t targeted. This at leaves gives Williams some viability, but the bigger concern is how bad this offense is in general. Denver is averaging just 0.85 points per possession, trailing only Carolina (0.54). The Bucs’ will be down run-stuffing NT Vita Vea (knee) for Week 3, which boosts Williams’ outlook a little bit.
Courtland Sutton – This is the first week Sutton has gotten off of the Sit list. He finally catches a decent matchup after being locked down by the Seahawks' tough secondary in Week 1 and Joey Porter in Week 2. Despite the tough draws, Sutton still leads the Broncos in first-read targets (24.1% share). Quarterback play is a huge concern here, and it’s why Sutton is just a low-end WR3. Just six of his 17 targets have been charted as catchable, according to our FP Data collection team. Yikes.
Sit ‘Em
Jaleel McLaughlin
Bo Nix – I’m willing to cut the rookie slack after opening up with two brutally tough matchups in Weeks 1-2 against the Seahawks' sound secondary and the Steelers' elite pass rush. We’re definitely not off to a flying start, though. Nix is really struggling when he’s pressured, just like most rookies do. He’s completed just 48.4% of his passes for 5.5 YPA and has thrown 3 INTs when pressured, but I do suppose it could be worse (see Caleb Williams’ blurb). Tampa Bay is going to fire off a ton of blitzes to rattle Nix. The Buccaneers are second in blitz rate (41.7%).
Josh Reynolds – Has quietly turned in 5/45 and 4/93 receiving in Weeks 1-2, while Sutton has dealt with tougher matchups.
Cade Otton
Greg Dulcich – Had a few brutal drops last week. Dulcich has turned his seven catchable targets into 28 yards of offense so far.
Stash ‘Em
Bucky Irving – One of the best handcuffs in fantasy.
Jalen McMillan – He’s a decent stash in deep leagues, but I don’t see a pathway to consistent targets unless Evans or Godwin miss games.
Green Bay Packers at Tennessee Titans
Must Start
Josh Jacobs – Hasn’t scored a TD yet, but has rolled up 255 scrimmage yards on 18 and 32 touches in Weeks 1-2. Due to injuries to Marshawn Lloyd (ankle, IR) and A.J. Dillon (neck, IR), Jacobs has handled 76% of the Packers RB carries and played on 80% of the snaps in the red-zone. He will see another massive workload in Week 3 with Malik Willis under center.
Start ‘Em
Tony Pollard – Strong, high-end RB2 with Tyjae Spears nursing an ankle injury. I expect this backfield committee will be close by the end of the season, but this is undeniably a great spot for Pollard. Green Bay has given up back-to-back 100-yard rushing performances to Barkley and Taylor. The Packers are allowing 4.5 YPC and the second-highest rate of explosive runs (9.8%) of 15 or more yards.
Calvin Ridley – After a rough opener for Will Levis, the Titans pass game found a little bit of rhythm in Week 2. Levis committed two more turnovers, but was much sharper in general against the Jets. Hopefully, he keeps building a bit of momentum. Ridley is the only show in town right now and is easily leading the team in first reads (28.3% share) with his teammate DeAndre Hopkins (knee) limited.
FLEX Plays
Jayden Reed – It was a lean Week 2 with Malik Willis under center. Reed saw just two targets and two carries. The Titans rebuilt secondary is playing well to start the season, but Reed carries so much upside because he gets the Deebo lite role. It’s a great sign that he led the team in routes last week, but the Packers are going to be extremely run-heavy again here. Over his last 12 regular season games with Love at QB, Reed is averaging 16.9 PPR points per game.
Sit ‘Em
Christian Watson, Romeo Doubs, and Dontayvion Wicks – Doubs is dominating first reads (29% share) as the Packers true X-receiver. Watson remains a part-time player. He’s run a route on 65% and 47% of Green Bay’s pass plays in Week 1 and 2. That’s not enough to maintain a fantasy relevant role. Dontayvion Wicks scored last week but he hasn’t run a route on more than 40% of the pass plays in a game yet.
Tyjae Spears – Nursing an ankle injury.
DeAndre Hopkins – Still limited by the knee injury he sustained in August. Nuk has only been healthy enough to run a route on just 34% of the Titans pass plays in Weeks 1-2. We might not see him in his usual, full-time role until Week 6 – after Tennessee’s bye.
Will Levis – Only in play for SuperFlex leagues.
Malik Willis
Tyler Boyd
Tucker Kraft and Luke Musgrave
Carolina Panthers at Las Vegas Raiders (4:05 pm ET kickoff)
Must Start
Brock Bowers – Leads all tight ends in targets (17). For comparison, Sam LaPorta broke the TE rookie record for most fantasy points in a landslide last season. He started Weeks 1-2 with 10/102 receiving, which is incredible. Yeah, well, that’s cool and all… but, Bowers has 15 receptions for 156 yards and an elite 2.79 yards per route run.
Start ‘Em
Davante Adams – Dropped a classic 9/110/1 hammer last week. The Raiders are funneling their entire passing game through two players: Adams (38%) and Bowers (27%). OC Luke Getsy is doing a wonderful job at using motion to define reads for his QB and get his top receivers an opportunity to gain instant leverage and separation on opposing secondaries. All that Gardner Minshew has to do is be serviceable. We’ve gotten that so far. Minshew has been far from stellar, but his 84.5% catchable throw rate is eighth-best. Just 8.5% of his throws have been charted as off-target (sixth-lowest).
FLEX Plays
Diontae Johnson – The Panthers have been lifeless offensively, with the since-benched QB Bryce Young completely broken. Beyond his size limitations, Young does not have the arm talent or awareness to function as a pocket QB. Carolina’s only chance at a serviceable offense this season is Andy Dalton. Through two starts, Young has completed just 55% of his throws for a horrific 4.4 pass yards per attempt. He’s thrown three INTs and taken 6 sacks. Across 24 possessions, the Panthers have one TD – a three-yard scramble by Young in garbage time against the Saints. Meanwhile, Diontae Johnson has 5 receptions for 34 yards on 12 targets. Just six of those targets were actually catchable. The good news is that Dalton looked competent in his lone spot-start in place of Bryce Young in Week 3 vs. Seattle last season. We have some hope here. Back in Week 3 last year, Dalton played a clean game with zero turnovers, and he completed 34-of-58 passes for 361 yards and 2 TDs. The last time Dalton was a starter was back in 2022 with the Saints where he tied for 12th-best in touchdown rate (4.8%) and had the sixth-best YPA (7.6) in the league. Looking back at his career, Dalton’s 7.1 YPA and 4.1% TD look terrific compared to Young’s incompetence (5.4 YPA | 1.9% TD). I’m cautiously optimistic that the QB change will give the Panthers a chance at a serviceable offense. Johnson has dominated first-read targets (27%) over secondary receivers Xavier Legette (17%) and Adam Thielen (14%). That type of usage and this QB change brings him up in projections back as a WR3.
Zamir White – This is White’s chance to make up for what has been a brutal start. While he will continue to lose passing down work to Mattison, the good news is that White has handled 22 carries to Mattison’s nine through two games. This is clearly a matchup for the Raiders to lean on the run game. Carolina’s run defense has been steamrolled for 79/383/3 rushing (4.85 YPC) through Weeks 1-2. White is a low-end RB2/high-end FLEX in this spot. If you drafted him in Round 7 and aren’t starting him here, I don’t know what to tell you.
Sit ‘Em
Chuba Hubbard and Miles Sanders – This backfield has been split just slightly in favor of Hubbard. Through two games, Hubbard (56%) and Sanders (39%) have split snaps and carries (16 to 12, in favor of Hubbard). This is a good spot if you have to play Hubbard. The Raiders got trucked by the Colts and Ravens RBs for 43/267/2 (6.2 YPC) on the ground. However, those team’s quarterbacks and schemes have a lot to do with that. Richardson and Jackson are a lot to deal with as runners.
Adam Thielen and Xavier Legette – This just feels like a week where the Panthers have to get Johnson going, but Dalton does breathe life for this entire passing game. Legette and Thielen have both earned seven targets, but Legette (31% share) leads the Panthers in air yards.
Jakobi Meyers
Gardner Minshew – Has finished as QB20 and QB17 in weekly scoring.
Andy Dalton – I’ll bet we get some cheap, usable weeks out of Dalton for SuperFlex leagues.
Stash ‘Em
Alexander Mattison – He has little standalone value, but he could have a decent role if White were to miss time.
Miami Dolphins at Seattle Seahawks (4:05 pm ET kickoff)
Must Start
De’Von Achane – Miami is going to shift very run-heavy without Tua for the next four weeks. Skylar Thompson made two spot starts back in 2022, and those were the only two games where the Dolphins' pass rate dipped -1% below expectation. In those two contests, HC Mike McDaniel leaned on the ground game with pass rates of -8% and -7% below expectation. The receiving usage is just out of this world here and I expect it to continue. They have to settle in Thompson and get him comfortable early in games. Thompson targeted Achane four times (4/48 receiving) against Buffalo last week. Achane leads all RBs in receptions (14) and yards (145) in a landslide. HC Mike McDaniel is going to design so many targets to get him in space. He already leads all players in designed targets (6) – like screens – over Breece Hall, Zay Flowers, Bijan Robinson, DJ Moore, Aaron Jones, and Alvin Kamara (5). Veteran RB Raheem Mostert (chest) will miss another game.
Start ‘Em
Zach Charbonnet – Got an insane bell-cow role in Week 2, leading all RBs in snaps (98.5%). He’s a volume-based RB2 at worst. Ken Walker (oblique) won’t play again. Make no mistake: This is Walker’s backfield long-term. Charbonnet is not as near as explosive or dynamic as Walker.
Geno Smith – Has finished as the QB7 in weekly FP in back-to-back games to start his season. Smith got there with his legs in Week 1, but this passing offense seemed to find its groove last week after integrating Jaxon Smith-Njigba heavily into the fold. Smith led the Week 2 slate in passing yards (327). Seattle are nearly the largest favorites (-6.5) in Week 3.
D.K. Metcalf – Due to two wonky game scripts, Miami’s secondary hasn’t really been tested yet. That’s about to change with this receiver group. The Dolphins have faced a league-low 40 pass attempts through two games. However, they’ve allowed an efficient 15/199/1 receiving (on 22 targets) to opposing Jaguars and Bills receivers.
Tyreek Hill – In three games where Thompson played more than 35% of the snaps in 2022, Hill was slowed by poor QB play. He went for 7/47 receiving (on 7 targets vs. Jets), 4/55 receiving (on 8 targets vs. Patriots), and 2/23 (on 5 targets vs. Jets). As always, Hill is the first-read most often. He’s seen 27% of the Dolphins first-read target share followed by Waddle (15%) and Achane (14%). Beyond the limitations of Thompson as a passer, it’s clear that the Dolphins will favor the ground game with Tua Tagovailoa (concussion) on I.R. for at least the next four games.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba – After a sleepy Week 1, JSN erupted for 12/117 receiving on a team-high 16 targets against the Patriots. JSN (39% share) earned one fewer first-read target than D.K. Metcalf in Week 2. We can’t expect that Tyler Lockett will fall by the wayside, but that was easily Smith-Njigba’s best game as a pro. It was also the dream usage. JSN gets work underneath, but also operates deeper down the middle. His average depth of target (10.6 yards) in Week 2 was the third-highest aDOT in a game of his career to date. Miami is getting attacked up the middle. Opposing slot receivers have accounted for 47% of the targets against the Dolphins, which is the highest rate in the league. JSN has run 83% of his routes lined up in the slot.
FLEX Plays
Tyler Lockett – It’s a weaker slate thanks to all of the injuries and Lockett always exists on the FLEX radar weekly. However, this looks like another spot for JSN on paper. JSN has also run slightly more routes (60 total) than Lockett (54) in back-to-back games to start this season.
Sit ‘Em
Jaylen Waddle – In those three games where Thompson played more than 35% of the snaps in 2022, Waddle was held down to 3/23 receiving (on 4 targets vs. Jets), 3/52 (on 5 targets vs. Patriots), and 5/44 (on 5 targets vs. Jets). Not great. Waddle is always forced to do the most with less volume than Hill, anyway. This is not an easy spot against a talented, physical secondary. Seattle dominated in two easy matchups, allowing a league-low 99.0 yards per game to all receivers aligned out wide or in the slot vs. New England and Denver. CB Riq Woolen is off to a hot start this season.
Skylar Thompson – The small sample on Thompson’s career hasn't been great. He played in two full games and a little over one-third of another in 2022. Across 116 dropbacks, Thompson completed just 57% of his throws for 5.1 YPA with a 1:3 TD-to-INT ratio. Only three QBs had a higher turnover-worthy throw rate than Thompson and they were Zach Wilson, Jameis Winston, and Taylor Heinicke. Seattle is allowing a league-low in passing FP (6.8 per game) and they are generating pressure on 42% of the opposing QBs dropbacks (fifth-highest rate).
Noah Fant
Jonnu Smith
Jaylen Wright – Saw more snaps (17 to 11) and more carries (5 to zilch) than veteran Jeff Wilson in Week 2. Miami ran the ball 26 and 33 times in Thompson’s two full games in 2022. (If you get bored watching this game, keep your eye on Seahawks slot CB Devon Witherspoon playing the run against Miami. He’s such a good tackler.)
Detroit Lions at Arizona Cardinals (4:25 pm ET kickoff)
Must Start
Amon-Ra St. Brown – Will be full-go. Doesn’t have an injury designation heading into Week 3.
Jahmyr Gibbs
Trey McBride – Through two games, McBride is TE1 in target share (29%), and he’s TE3 in route share (80%). That’s a recipe to be the #1 tight end this season.
Kyler Murray – Has started off 2024 as the QB15 and QB1 in weekly finishes. Murray’s scrambling ability is clearly fully back after adding 116 rushing yards on just 10 carries through two games. For reference, he has averaged 37.7 rushing yards per game in his career. The Lions (49%) are playing the third-most man coverage, and it’s far easier for mobile quarterbacks to scramble against man-to-man looks because the defensive backs often have their backs turned. Baker Mayfield added 5/34/1 with his legs rushing last week.
Start ‘Em
Marvin Harrison – We noted last week that it was a far better matchup for Harrison up against a shaky Rams secondary, and he delivered with 4/130/2 receiving. Harrison earned 40% of the first-read targets in Week 2 after he saw just 14% in his debut. This is another good spot up against a Lions secondary that is playing a high rate of man-to-man coverage. Harrison has almost exclusively face zone coverage through two games.
James Conner – Has picked up right where he left off last season as one of the most underrated runners in the league. Conner has scored a TD in seven straight games dating back to last year while piling up 121.4 scrimmage yards per contest in this span. You’re not taking Conner out of your RB2 slot.
Jameson Williams – The breakout is very real. Through two games, Williams leads the Lions in first-read target share (35%) over St. Brown (31%), Gibbs (10%), and LaPorta (9%). We’ll see this even out as the season goes on, but Williams has already emerged as a very strong WR2. After seeing a career-high in targets (9) in Week 1, Williams turned around and earned another career-high 11 targets in Week 2.
Sam LaPorta – Yeah, so this was a part of the reason we were slightly lower than the markets on LaPorta this summer. Williams was always going to factor in more. However, not even the biggest Jameson Williams fans such as myself saw this coming. LaPorta has just 6/58 receiving in Weeks 1-2. We’ll see a concerted effort to get him going, but there is no way he finishes as a top-3 scoring TE with St. Brown and Williams getting so many first reads. The Cardinals have allowed three receptions for 46 yards (on six targets) to Bills and Rams TEs in Weeks 1-2.
FLEX Plays
David Montgomery – As always, Montgomery is one of the top RB2/FLEX plays on the board. He’s scored 17 TDs in 18 full games with the Lions (including playoffs).
Sit ‘Em
Jared Goff – It has not been a particularly good opening two games for Goff. He was “fine” in Week 1 against the Rams before really struggling last week against the Buccaneers blitz-heavy scheme. Goff has thrown 1 TD pass on 83 attempts while his running backs already have combined for 3 TDs. This is an easier matchup if we’re looking for positives. The Cardinals are allowing the fourth-most adjusted net yards per pass attempt (7.9 yards), which factors in TDs, INTs, and sacks in addition to passing yards. Only the Commanders (9.6), Rams (9.5), and Panthers (8.4) are worse by ANY/A.
Greg Dortch – Part time player in this offense. Dortch has only run a route on 55% of the Cardinals pass plays. That’s not enough to sustain a fantasy relevant role. Nursing a minor hamstring injury.
Michael Wilson
Stash ‘Em
Trey Benson
San Francisco 49ers at Los Angeles Rams (4:25 pm ET kickoff)
Must Start
Jordan Mason – This is an unbelievable matchup and projected workload here after all of the 49ers injuries to start the season. The Rams have been absolutely gashed on the ground for 62/309/3 rushing (4.98 YPC). The only running backs that have played on a higher rate of their team’s snaps than Mason (81%) are Saquon Barkley (86%), Kyren Williams (86%), and Bijan Robinson (82%).
Kyren Williams – The Rams are struggling with run blocking up front, but Williams’ role is still aces. He’s tied as the RB1 in snap rate and RB4 in expected fantasy points per game.
Brandon Aiyuk – It has been a slow start here, but that had to be somewhat expected after he didn’t practice all summer. Aiyuk had his usual full-time role (91% route share) in Week 2 after being partially limited (76% route share) in the opener. The Rams don’t have anyone on their defense that can cover Aiyuk.
Start ‘Em
Brock Purdy – This would be a potential blow up spot if Purdy had Deebo and the Rams offense was healthy. Instead, the game total (44.5 over/under) is middling. Through two games against the Lions and Buccaneers, the Los Angeles secondary has been flamed for a league-high 9.9 yards per pass attempt. Only the Commanders (0.67) and Panthers (0.65) are allowing more passing fantasy points per dropback than the Rams (0.58).
FLEX Plays
Demarcus Robinson – Has 23 receptions for 356 yards and 3 TDs in his last six regular season games with at least 80% of the snaps. That’s 12.8 PPR points per game. Robinson will lead the team in routes with Nacua and Kupp both sidelined.
Sit ‘Em
George Kittle – Has gone for 3/39/1 receiving (on 5 targets), 4/93/2 (on 5 targets), 6/120/2 (on 8 targets), 4/23/1 (on 8 targets), 5/78 (on 7 targets), and 9/149 (on 11 targets) in his last six contests without Deebo Samuel (calf). That’s 19.5 PPR points per game. Update: He will not play after injuring his hamstring in practice.
Deebo Samuel – Will miss a few weeks with a calf injury.
Matthew Stafford – Losing your top two wideouts before Week 3 is just brutal. Cooper Kupp (high ankle sprain) won’t go on injured reserve, but he’s still likely to miss 3-4 weeks. Puka Nacua (knee) is on I.R. and his injury might require more rest beyond the next three games.
Jauan Jennings – He will play more with Samuel sidelined. Jennings is a low-end WR3/FLEX here. I expect that we’ll see some of the rookie WR Jacob Cowing stretching the defense vertically this week.
Colby Parkinson – He will see more targets come his way, but this is a brutal matchup against LB Fred Warner and S Talona Hufanga (making his 2024 debut). Backup TE Davis Allen (back) is out.
Tyler Johnson – Didn’t see a single first-read target last week.
Tutu Atwell – Tied for the team lead in first-read target share (33%) with Kupp in Week 2.
Stash ‘Em
Jordan Whittington – Ran a route on all of the Rams pass plays in the 3rd-4th quarter after Kupp’s injury last week. I’d stash him over Johnson or Atwell.
Baltimore Ravens at Dallas Cowboys (4:25 pm ET kickoff)
Must Start
CeeDee Lamb
Lamar Jackson
Start ‘Em
Dak Prescott – The Ravens have regressed defensively with the coaching change from DC Mike MacDonald to Zach Orr to start the season. After allowing 291 yards in Week 1 to Patrick Mahomes, Baltimore’s defense collapsed in the second half last week against the Raiders. Gardner Minshew went 30-of-38 for 276 yards. For reference, the Ravens allowed more than 250 yards passing just four times in all of 2023. At worst, Prescott is a low-end QB1 this week.
Zay Flowers – Through two games, Flowers is 14th among WRs in first-read target share (33%). Flowers got some downfield work in Week 2 after getting spammed targets near the line of scrimmage in the opener.
Derrick Henry
Mark Andrews – Finished second on the Ravens in first-read targets and air yards in Week 2 after Flowers. Andrews ran 26 routes to just 17 for Likely. Dallas didn’t face many pass attempts last week, but they did give up 7 receptions for 71 yards in Week 1 against Browns TEs.
Jake Ferguson – Returned to a limited practice on Wednesday (knee). If he’s able to suit up, Ferguson is a low-end TE1 on this slate. The Ravens allowed 6/71 receiving (on 7 targets) to Chiefs tight ends in Week 1 and just got cleaned out for 10/109 receiving by Brock Bowers and Michael Mayer last week. S Kyle Hamilton (back) is questionable.
Sit ‘Em
Isaiah Likely – His role was cut down in Week 2 by quite a bit. Likely ran a route on just 44% of the pass plays last week after his route share was 60% in the opener.
Ezekiel Elliott and Rico Dowdle – Baltimore’s secondary is struggling a bit, but their front seven is playing lights-out run defense (32/74 rushing, 2.3 YPC). As expected, Elliott has split snaps (46% to 44%) and carries (16 to 15) practically right down the middle with Dowdle.
Brandin Cooks and Jalen Tolbert – Through two games, Tolbert has 10 targets to Cooks’ 9 on one fewer route. TE Jake Ferguson (knee) should be back this week.
Justice Hill
Rashod Bateman
Kansas City Chiefs at Atlanta Falcons (SNF)
Must Start
Bijan Robinson
Rashee Rice – Across their last 13 games since their bye last year (including the postseason), Rice has out-targeted Kelce by a 107 to 93 margin. The Falcons allowed 6/85 receiving (on 7 targets) to George Pickens in Week 1, while DeVonta Smith went for 7/76/1 (on 10 targets) last week.
Start ‘Em
Patrick Mahomes – Has finished as the QB14 in weekly scoring in back-to-back games. The most likely outcome here in the fallout of Pacheco’s injury is that Mahomes and the Chiefs ramp up their pass rate after being relatively balanced in Weeks 1-2. Kansas City is just 53% pass-heavy when the game is within a score right now. Last season, that was 66% pass-heavy. Mahomes has thrown the ball just 25 and 28 times in Weeks 1-2 after averaging 38.3 pass attempts per game over the previous four seasons.
Travis Kelce – It’s been a very slow start, but the Chiefs are likely to spike their pass rate with Pacheco out.
Drake London – The result (6/54/1 receiving) and usage (47% first-read target share!!) were far better in Week 2. Kansas City just does not give up big production to receivers, so we’ll need London to continue to get fed the ball.
Kyle Pitts – Do you really have another streaming option that’s viable over Pitts? The Chiefs keep everything in front of them with two-high safety looks, which is forcing everything to the short middle of the field. As a result, the Chiefs have been absolutely hammered by 25/276/1 receiving (on 30 targets) against tight ends. There are plenty of red flags here but this is objectively a great spot for Pitts to earn extra targets. It’s not a great sign that Pitts is fifth on the team in first-read targets (6.3%).
FLEX Plays
Xavier Worthy – Second on the Chiefs in first-read targets (17.5% share) behind Rice (35%). However, Worthy’s route share dropped down to 61% in Week 2. Worthy tied for the team lead in routes in Week 1 with a 74% route share. This highlights how boom-or-bust he’s going to be as a rookie, but the Chiefs pass rate is set to spike upwards, and Worthy is going to be designed targets without Pacheco.
Carson Steele and Samaje Perine – In another brutal blow to the fantasy landscape, Isiah Pacheco suffered a broken fibula after getting rolled up on and pushed back simultaneously by two Bengals defensive linemen. He will go on injured reserve and will miss at least the next four games. Pacheco returning after 4-5 games in Week 8-9 after the Chiefs Week 6 bye would be an absolute best-case outcome. ESPN’s Adam Schefter is reporting that Pacheco will miss approximately 6 to 8 weeks and the Chiefs are bringing in old friend RB Kareem Hunt. For now, Kansas City is going to go with some sort of rotation between Samaje Perine and Carson Steele in their backfield. Keaontay Ingram was elevated off of the practice squad, too. I’ll bet that Steele leads the Chiefs in carries until Pacheco returns but Perine ends up with a pretty valuable passing-down role to compartmentalize things a bit.
Sit ‘Em
Kirk Cousins – You’re looking for more upside in 1-QB leagues. Cousins was sharper in Week 2, but he’s still not pushing the ball downfield. He’s thrown just three passes beyond 20 or more yards in the air and his only completion on a deep ball was to Darnell Mooney on their final drive last week. That was against an extreme cushion where the CB was playing a deep zone to keep Mooney in front of him. Kansas City keeps everything in front of them through their scheme. The Chiefs are playing the second-most two-high safety coverage (71%) after leading the league in 2-hi rate last season (69%).
Darnell Mooney
Ray-Ray McLoud
Stash ‘Em
Tyler Allgeier
Jacksonville Jaguars at Buffalo Bills (MNF | 7:30 pm ET kickoff)
Must Start
Josh Allen
Start ‘Em
James Cook – Make no mistake: Josh Allen remains the main goal-line RB, but Cook getting chances at short TDs is huge for his outlook long-term. After losing goal-line work to Latavius Murray last season, Cook is the only Bill RB to have a carry inside-the-10 through two games (3). Buffalo signed Murray off of the sofa and handed the ball to him 12 times at the goal line, while Cook had just five carries inside-the-10 last year.
Travis Etienne – Has played on at least 60% of the Jaguars offensive snaps in 19 straight games dating back to last season.
Dalton Kincaid – The good news is that the entire TE position is awful right now, so Kincaid’s slow start hasn’t hurt you. His usage is solid. Kincaid has run a route on 76% of the Bills pass plays through two games and that’s way up from his rookie season (65%). Kincaid also is tied with Keon Coleman (21%) in first read target share. The production will come. The main problem right now is that the Bills have shifted more towards the run under OC Joe Brady. In nine regular season starts under Brady, QB Josh Allen is averaging 30.1 pass attempts per game. This is way down from the 36.8 passes per game he attempted in his previous 43 contests dating back to 2021.
FLEX Plays
Christian Kirk – The Jaguars are a mess offensively and things have just steadily regressed since HC Doug Pederson’s first season in 2022. The offensive line is a problem. Trevor Lawrence has been pressured on 38% of his dropbacks, which is the 12th-highest rate. The coaching, offensive line, and quarterback are all mediocre right now and it’s killed Christian Kirk (2/29 receiving on seven targets). This has to be a spot to get him going with Evan Engram (hamstring) out. The Bills play so much two-high coverage that they force everything underneath and they will be without slot CB Taron Johnson. Kirk is a WR3.
Khalil Shakir – Over his last nine games dating back to last season, Shakir leads the Bills in receiving yards (51 per game). This just further speaks to the low volume nature of this pass offense right now. Shakir has seen more than five targets just once in this span. He’s a lower end WR3/FLEX option here.
Brian Thomas and Gabe Davis – Thomas has out-targeted Kirk 8 to 7 through two games while Gabe Davis leads the team (10 targets). The only reason that these two are on the FLEX radar this week is because the Jaguars pass game will be condensed a bit without Engram. Otherwise, this is a horrific matchup. Due to their scheme, Buffalo just does not give up production to boundary receivers. The Bills have allowed just 6/51 receiving on 17 targets to receivers aligned out wide this season. Thomas and Davis are both boom-or-bust WR3.
Sit ‘Em
Trevor Lawrence
Keon Coleman – I’ll bet that we see Coleman more involved this week after he ghosted us in Week 2. Again, the Bills low volume pass offense remains my concern. This matchup is good. Jacksonville is down top CB Tyson Campbell (hamstring) and they’ve allowed the second-most yardage (317) to receivers aligned out wide in Weeks 1-2. However, until we see consistent volume here, Coleman remains a WR4/5 bench stash.
Curtis Samuel
Evan Engram – Will not play (hamstring). TE Brenton Strange is in play as a desperation streamer.
Stash ‘Em
Tank Bigsby – Suffered a minor shoulder injury last week on a kickoff return, so that’s likely why he didn’t play a snap on offense. On his limited preseason snaps and 12 carries (73 yards) in Week 1, Bigsby looks like a different runner this season.
Washington Commanders at Cincinnati Bengals (MNF | 8:15 pm ET kickoff)
Must Start
Ja’Marr Chase
Start ‘Em
Joe Burrow – After allowing a league-high 21.1 FPG to opposing quarterbacks last season, the Commanders just got hammered for 289 yards and 4 TDs by Baker Mayfield in Week 1 and just helped Daniel Jones look competent (18.3 FP) in Week 2. The Bengals are #1 in pass rate over expected (+12.1%) in a landslide.
Jayden Daniels – Already tied for the QB lead in carries (26) with Hurts.
Zack Moss – After getting a solid role in Week 1, Moss took over the Bengals backfield in Week 2 by playing on 80% of the snaps. He has 21 carries compared to just seven for Chase Brown. Most importantly, Moss has a stranglehold on the red-zone work. He has out-snapped Brown by a 12 to 2 margin inside-the-10 and Moss has handled every carry (5). He’s a RB2 in this strong spot.
FLEX Plays
Brian Robinson – Has piled up 225 scrimmage yards through two games. Robinson is clearly the Commanders lead early-down RB, but he and Austin Ekeler have split red-zone snaps (16 to 12) and carries (6 to 5).
Tee Higgins – Set to return after missing Weeks 1-2 nursing a hamstring injury. Even if he’s a little limited in this game, this matchup alone puts Higgins on the WR3/FLEX radar. He might only need 5-6 targets to crush the Commanders secondary. Washington has gotten cleaned out for 30/373/6 (on 45 targets).
Sit ‘Em
Terry McLaurin – Washington’s offense resembles a college program right now. Everything is short, quick throws with one or two reads. After that, Daniels is running. OC Kliff Kingsbury is the least deserving coach in the NFL of his job. McLaurin is just stuck on the left boundary running cardio. Daniels has thrown deep – 20 or more yards down the field – just three times on 53 pass attempts. Through two games, no quarterback is getting the ball out faster (2.23-seconds time to throw) than Daniels. His average depth of throw is 4.6 yards. Until this offense progresses to actually trying to throw down the field, McLaurin is a shaky WR3.
Austin Ekeler – Only play in PPR leagues as a floor-based FLEX. Ekeler is going to live in the 8-12 touch range all year. He leads the Commanders in receiving yards (99) followed by Zach Ertz (90).
Zach Ertz – In play as a low-end streamer, but I really hope that you have a better option. Ertz’s role has been solid. He ranks TE12 in route share (71%) and TE11 in target share (15%). S Von Bell (back) is questionable.
Mike Gesicki – It’s extremely fluky that Gesicki leads the team in targets (13). Chase is off to a slow start for his standard and Higgins hasn't played. Gesicki has only run a route on 47% of the pass plays through two games. Until his participation in the offense rises, Gesicki will be on the fringe of relevancy.
Chase Brown – I’m not surprised that Moss is the preferred early-down and red-zone back right now. What is a shock is that Brown (16 routes, 3 targets) doesn’t have much of a role on passing downs compared to Moss (39 routes, 5 targets).
Andrei Iosivas
