OFFICIALLY OUT OR DOUBTFUL: Tee Higgins, David Njoku, Puka Nacua, Marquise Brown, Jordan Addison
A.J. Brown: Hamstring
Brown was a very late-week addition to the injury report. Basically, if you have him, be sure to pay attention. There have been 40 WRs since 2018 who have followed this pattern, and 75% have ended up sitting. The flip side is if the WR was active, they ended up being OK. Here are the best comps for Brown:
2020 Julio Jones - 25 points
2021 Mike Evans - 15 points
2019 Courtland Sutton - 8 points
2021 Terry McLaurin - 7 points
This matter is complicated by the Eagles playing on Monday night. The longest managers should wait is through the morning slate to find a viable replacement. Otherwise, if Brown sits, the options are limited to the likes of Darnell Mooney or Jahan Dotson. View Brown as the definition of boom/bust in Week 2.
Jayden Reed: Chin/Calf
Reed may be a complete fade due to the QB situation. There’s a legit shot the Packers just put anyone with aches and pains on ice until Jordan Love gets back anyway. You might have better options but if not, he’s the Packers WR1 and if active could serve as an okay option.
Projected Return: Week 2-3
Advice: Target Love, Target Josh Jacobs
Jordan Love: MCL/Kneecap (?)
Love went down with a knee injury that looked like a kneecap dislocation. To this point, the Packers have not placed him on IR and are calling this an MCL sprain. Now, QBs typically don’t miss longer than 1-2 weeks with this kind of injury. But if he indeed also suffered a kneecap injury, this will be closer to 2-3 weeks. Overall this shouldn’t impact his performance but in the short term his pass catchers will suffer while Josh Jacobs will eat.
WEEK 2 PROJECTION: Officially QUESTIONABLE, but didn’t practice all week
Projected Return: Week 3-4
Advice: Target :Love, Target Josh Jacobs
Christian McCaffrey: Achilles/calf
Christian McCaffrey was a surprise inactive for Monday Night Football in Week 1, and this one truly blindsided even the most astute injury analyst. Why?
Well, because since 2018, there have been just 25 NFL RBs on the injury report with “Achilles/calf” and only 2/25 recurred. What’s more, 93% of NFL players, in general, return from this injury within 31 days. Those two data points alone make McCaffrey an outlier.
Still don’t feel better?
Well, 71% of NFL players who finish the week as “LP” end up playing since 2017. You couldn’t have predicted this.
So what to do other than scoop Jordan Mason? Understand that only 1 NFL RB with this injury has gone on to rupture their Achilles. So even though the risk is small, there’s still risk, which is likely why the 49ers and CMC are being cautious themselves… resulting in his placement on IR.
Still, CMC is a Power Law Player, and if you can get one of those guys on your squad for even just a small discount (I personally sent out Caleb Williams in exchange for CMC in a superflex league [it got rejected by the way, sharp league]) it can make all the difference in the world.
There will be panicked managers out there. Bad decisions will be made. If you decide to take him on, understand that your big swing can still miss big.
But we only take big swings around here.
PROJECTION: Placed on IR
Projected Return: Week 6-7
Advice: Target at a discount, avoid overpaying
Rome Odunze: Knee (MCL)
Odunze suffered a knee injury late in the fourth quarter and will get an MRI. The mechanism looked to be MCL, which, given the video, is actually the best-case scenario.
There are already reports this is a Grade I, and if that holds true, he should be back in 1-2 weeks. Unfortunately, we’ll have to monitor practice reports on this one.
PROJECTION: 80-90% of baseline production/expectation
Projected Return: Week 2
Advice: N/A
Keenan Allen: Heel
Allen has been dealing with a heel injury since training camp and appears to have aggravated it in Week 1.
PROJECTION: Severely limited if active
Projected Return: Week 3-5
Advice: Target Rome Odunze/DJ Moore
Puka Nacua: Knee
Nacua briefly left, returned, and was ultimately ruled out with a knee injury. Keep in mind that much of this is from afar, but it’s likely McVay downplayed the injury and obscured it with the “bursa sac” language. I mentioned on X/Twitter that this could implicate a PCL sprain. Soon after, Schefter confirmed this is a PCL sprain for Nacua.
I’ll take the L. My rationale was that 4-5 weeks was more than enough time for most injuries to recover. But they clearly rushed Nacua back. Now he’ll be placed on IR, and can’t return until Week 6 at the soonest.
If I drafted Nacua, I’m looking to move him in the next week or two to a manager who starts hot just to stay alive. Reciprocally, if you start hot and can get Puka at a discount, he’s worth the stash/risk.
But there is risk!
Once he returns there’s no guarantee this injury will respond well.
Projected Return: Week 6
Advice: Target in most scenarios… if you have the roster room
David Njoku: Ankle
Njoku left in the second half against the Cowboys and did not return after this hit. The primary concern is a high ankle sprain — an injury he suffered in 2022. That year, he missed three weeks. It's unclear if this is the same side but if it is, he’s more likely to miss time.
As I write this, RapSheet confirmed a high ankle sprain. Severity is unknown but be prepared to be without Njoku 2-3 weeks on average. In fact his 2022 injury mentioned previously kept him out exactly 3 weeks. He’ll likely be severely limited even if he plays in Week 2.
WEEK 2 PROJECTION: OUT
Projected Return: Week 4-5
Advice: Avoid
Jake Ferguson: Knee/Ankle
Ferguson suffered a left knee (ankle?) injury and did not return against the Browns. Here’s the play. There are some layers to peel back here:
Ian Rapoport reported that Ferguson did not appear to tear his ACL, which was a legitimate concern given the mechanism. NBC went on to report that Ferguson sprained his MCL.
The Cowboys have come out and said the injury was not too serious, and he’ll even push to play. The Cowboys are notorious for pushing guys to get back on the field to play. However, if Ferguson practices and plays, he’s at risk for re-injury and will be severely limited.
WEEK 2 PROJECTION: OUT (officially DOUBTFUL)
Projected Return: Week 3-4
Advice: Avoid
Jordan Addison: High Ankle
Addison was ruled out against the Giants. He’ll undergo more tests Monday, but he is not believed to have suffered a major injury according to Rapoport.
Still, this is a high ankle type mechanism and WRs, objectively speaking, try returning too soon from these. Here’s the data:
WEEK 2 PROJECTION: Officially OUT
Projected Return: Week 3-4
Advice: Avoid
Kenneth Walker III: Core/Groin
Walker left late in the fourth quarter with abdominal pain and did not return. He said that he’s fine, and his coach confirmed. This injury has been tricky for Walker, who missed 2 games in 2023 due to the same issue. Obviously, he showed extremely well in Week 1, but the reality is that Zach Charbonnet is one of the best handcuffs in the league. Charbs was a highlight in the Injury Prone Draft Guide for this reason.
The risk with Walker is that, eventually, he’ll need surgery. When that may happen is anyone’s guess, though, and it may never happen at all! For context, Christian Kirk had a mild groin strain in 2020, was fine for three years, then needed it repaired last season. Walker is good. Walker is risky. That’s the reality.
WEEK 2 PROJECTION: OUT, highly risky if active
Projected Return: Week 3-5
Advice: Target Zach Charbonnet
Josh Downs: High Ankle
Likely won’t play. If active, not-startable due to massive hit in production.
WEEK 2 PROJECTION: OUT, sit if active
Projected Return: Week 3
Advice: Target
