Welcome to Week 2 Start ‘Em, Sit ‘Em.
This game-by-game article breaks down every player that is relevant for fantasy football. As always, please use our projections to make your start/sit decisions every week. The analysis in this piece provides color – and a lot of stats – behind the projections.
Weekly fantasy football analysis is about finding which offensive players have the most valuable roles first and then applying the more granular matchup factors secondarily. Volume is the name of the game, especially at RB.
Unless stated otherwise, all of the data in this article is from Fantasy Points Data and specifically curated from the Data Suite. Our collection team has charted every play from every game over the last three seasons, and we will have fresh, weekly data imported into the tools on Tuesday mornings after the games.
The Start’ Em, Sit ‘Em key
Must Start — Don’t take them out of your lineup, even if there is a fire.
Start ‘Em — The top-12 at QB and TE; top-20 plays at RB; top-25 at WR.
FLEX Plays — All of the best RB2/WR3 plays.
Stream ‘Em — The best one-week plays at QB and TE for streaming off of the waiver wire.
Sit ‘Em — Don’t play them in your lineups. This could be due to a poor role, matchup, or performance.
Stash ‘Em — Step 1: Hold them on your bench. Step 2: Profit. (See: Jordan Mason, Week 1)
Good luck this week!
Buffalo Bills at Miami Dolphins
Must Start
Josh Allen – Allen has scored 20 or more FP in an incredible 44-of-57 games (77.2%) over the last three seasons. This includes playoffs.
Tyreek Hill – Since joining the Dolphins in 2022, Hill leads all receivers in PPR points per game (22.1). The next closest WR is Justin Jefferson (20.9 FPG).
Start ‘Em
Jaylen Waddle – As always, Waddle had to do the most with the least on this offense (5/109 receiving on five targets). Despite ranking WR30 in targets per game (7.1), Waddle is WR14 in PPR points per game (14.9) over the last three combined seasons – just one-tenth of a point behind Deebo Samuel (14.8). The Bills are going to try to keep everything in front of them with two-high safety coverage often. Buffalo deployed two-high 68% of the time in Week 1 and did so at a 71% clip back in Week 4, 2023, when they relatively slowed Hill (3/58 receiving) and Waddle (4/46 receiving). Waddle didn’t play in their second Week 18 meeting, but the Bills rolled out two-high on 69% of the Dolphins pass plays in that one. In their 33 games together, Hill (29.7% target share) has earned far more targets than Waddle (20.9% TS) against two-high safety looks.
James Cook – Once again, Cook was left as an empty-calorie RB2 with 13.3 PPR points (RB24) in Week 1. In his career, Cook has handled 24 carries inside-the-10 in his career and has one TD to show for it. By comparison, Allen has scored 19 TDs on his 37 inside-10 carries in this span.
Dalton Kincaid – Against the backdrop of a horrific Week 1 at the position, I thought Kincaid’s usage was bullish long-term. Kincaid was second on the Bills in routes (80% share) behind Keon Coleman (87%). In fact, he finished fifth amongst TEs in route share, trailing only Kittle (88%), Parkinson (84%), McBride (84%), and Henry (83%). For comparison, Kincaid’s 80% route share would have been the third-highest rate in any game of his rookie season. The targets will come. Still, we’ve yet to see much of a ceiling here. Kincaid is averaging a pitiful 7.1 PPR points per game in 15 career games with TE Dawson Knox. He remains a low-end TE1.
Dolphins Backfield
Raheem Mostert (chest) is out for Week 2 after sustaining the injury early in the opener. De’Von Achane got in a limited practice on Wednesday after sitting out Monday-Tuesday with an ankle injury. Even if he’s limited on TNF, Achane is still a top-3 RB on the slate.
Jeff Wilson will mix in, while Jaylen Wright will make his debut after being a healthy scratch in Week 1. Wright remains the preferred long-term bench stash.
The Dolphins struggled on the ground against the Jaguars, but that mattered little for Achane after he saw incredible usage in the passing game. He was second on the Dolphins in targets (7) – behind Tyreek Hill (12 targets) but ahead of Jaylen Waddle (5) – and he turned those looks into a stellar 7/76 receiving. This was in addition to Achane leading Raheem Mostert in both snaps (52% to 44%) and carries (10 to 6). As if things couldn’t get any better, Achane also took the Dolphins' lone carry inside the 5 in for a TD. Achane getting consistent work near the goal line would send his fantasy stock through the stratosphere. Keep in mind, Mostert outcarried Achane 15 to 4 inside-the-5 in their seven full games together last season. The bottom line: The receiving usage will drive Achane’s fantasy RB1 upside and the goal-line work is just icing on the cake.
FLEX Plays
Keon Coleman – It was a strong debut for Coleman after he led the team in routes, targets, and yards. Promisingly, Coleman earned a first-read target on 31.3% of Allen’s dropbacks. His next closest teammates were Cook, Shakir, and Samuel (12.5% FR share apiece). CB Jalen Ramsey is nursing a hamstring injury.
Sit ‘Em
Khalil Shakir – Operated as the Bills primary slot receiver, but was a part-time player (70% route share) with a low aDOT (3.3 yards). Shakir will live on the WR4/FLEX fringe with this type of usage.
Curtis Samuel – Ran only nine routes in Week 1.
Jonnu Smith
Las Vegas Raiders at Baltimore Ravens
Must Start
Lamar Jackson
Start ‘Em
Derrick Henry – As expected, Henry was spelled heavily by Justice Hill while the Ravens tried to play catch-up in Week 1. Hill ran 26 routes to Henry’s eight, which further highlights how low Henry’s floor in fantasy football can be without TDs. The good news? Henry should see plenty of carries here because the Ravens are the largest Week 2 favorites (-9.5 points). Henry averages 22.6 PPR points per game when his team wins but just 12.5 FPG in losses.
Brock Bowers – This was as good of Week 1 usage as you could ask for. I thought that Bowers would really dent Davante Adams’ target share this season, but not this quickly. Bowers led the Raiders in targets (8), and he saw 25% of the first-read looks, turning that into 6/58 receiving in Week 1. Adams saw 30% of the first reads. The rookie ran a route on 73% of the Raiders pass plays, which was the 12th-highest route share among TEs in Week 1. Baltimore just allowed 6/71 receiving (on seven targets) to Chiefs’ TEs.
Davante Adams – Over his last 18 contests dating back to last season, Adams is averaging 66.8 receiving yards per game. This ranks 20th-best among all wide receivers in this span. We’re a long way from Adams’ 89.2 YPG that he put up back in 2021 in his first season in Las Vegas. Continued inconsistent QB play and Bowers’ emergence just pushes Adams a little further down as a WR2.
Mark Andrews – I was dead wrong about him against the Chiefs, but the collective meltdown over Andrews’ performance looked foolish after the entire position air-balled in Week 1. There was just pain everywhere you looked at TE. Andrews ran more routes than Isaiah Likely, but Likely was the one to get all of the short targets against the Chiefs' two-high safety coverage. Baltimore is going to use Andrews and Likely as full-time players – which does ding Andrews' ceiling this season. However, Andrews and Likely play two different positions. Andrews remained the Ravens' big slot receiver in Week 1 while Likely lined up as the traditional in-line TE more often. Let’s save any panic for a few weeks and see how this new-look Ravens offense plays out over a larger sample size.
Isaiah Likely – Ran a route on 61% of Baltimore’s pass plays in Week 1, which would have been the highest rate of his 2023 season in games where Andrews played. Likely is just good at the game and proves it every time he gets a chance. The position is so thin right now, I’m open-minded that both Ravens TEs are top-12 options weekly. Baltimore used 12-personnel (2-TE) on a league-high 51% of their plays in Week 1. This is just sharp, rational coaching. It also gives Likely runway as a back-end TE1 for the rest of the season.
FLEX Plays
Zay Flowers – His Week 1 performance (6/37 receiving on 10 targets) was just more of the same from Flowers where he lives off of designed targets near the line of scrimmage and doesn’t get much work down the field (6.1 aDOT). We’re still waiting on a consistent ceiling here. Flowers is averaging 10.5 PPR points per game in 10 career games where TE Mark Andrews was fully healthy. For reference, that output would have made Flowers the WR48 by fantasy points per game last season. Until he gets more consistent downfield work, Flowers will remain a WR3/FLEX play.
Sit ‘Em
Zamir White – The Raiders rolled with a timeshare backfield in Week 1. We were fading White hard in Round 7 of drafts for this reason. White took more carries (13 to 5) than Alexander Mattison, but he was routinely spelled on passing downs. Mattison ended up out-snapping White by a 59% to 39% margin. White is the definition of a roster clogger in fantasy football. Mattison ran 21 routes to White’s nine, and he out-targeted White (5 to 2) on Opening Day. The Raiders have the lowest implied team total (16 points) for Week 2.
Jakobi Meyers
Gardner Minshew – SuperFlex only.
Rashod Bateman
Stash 'Em
Justice Hill – In deeper PPR leagues. The Ravens are very thin behind Henry. Rookie RB Rasheen Ali (neck) is on I.R., and RB Keaton Mitchell (ACL) remains without a timeline for return.
New Orleans Saints at Dallas Cowboys
Must Start
CeeDee Lamb
Start ‘Em
Dak Prescott – Listed as a sit last week, this is clearly a spot to get back in on Prescott. The Saints are going to likely be without top CB Marshon Lattimore (hamstring). Dallas has the third-highest implied team total (26.5).
Alvin Kamara – The Panthers' soft front seven was bullied by the Saints' offensive line in Week 1, which won’t happen again here against the Cowboys’ elite front seven. The good news for Kamara is that he received all four of the Saints carries inside-the-10 and scored a TD after he and RB/TE Taysom Hill have largely split those opportunities in the past. Over their last 27 games together, Kamara has 32 carries inside-the-10 (scored 6 TDs) while Hill has 26 inside-10 carries (scored 7 TDs).
Chris Olave – I was wrong about him in Week 1, but I’m not at all concerned about Olave long-term after Derek Carr only needed to throw it 23 times to beat up on the Panthers. New Orleans will have to throw way more this week (+6.5 underdogs). Olave remains a volume-based WR2.
FLEX Plays
Brandin Cooks – While TE Jake Ferguson (knee) is limited due to his injury, we can expect a few extra targets to find Cooks. Last week, 17 of Prescott’s 32 pass attempts went to either Lamb (10 targets) or Cooks (7).
Rashid Shaheed – Shaheed was flying out there, but his long TD in Week 1 came on a busted coverage by the Panthers secondary. This is a significantly more difficult matchup against a well-coached and talented defense, but there is clearly upside here for way more passing volume in this game. Under new DC Mike Zimmer, the Cowboys deployed the third-most zone coverage (84%) in Week 1. Since the beginning of 2023, Shaheed averages 2.03 yards per route run vs. zone coverages, but only 1.47 YPRR vs. man coverage.
Ezekiel Elliott – As expected, Dallas’ backfield was split between Elliott (50% of snaps) and Rico Dowdle (45%) in Week 1. Zeke had 10 carries, while Dowdle had eight. Both running backs ran nine routes apiece. Elliott did out-snap Dowdle (4 to 0) in the red zone, which gives him the inside track for a TD as a low-end RB2/FLEX.
Sit ‘Em
Rico Dowdle – Remains a stash. Elliott will get the first crack at goal-line work (for now).
Derek Carr – SuperFlex only. Carolina’s weak front seven didn’t pressure Carr in Week 1. That won’t happen here against Dallas' elite pass rush.
Taysom Hill – The Saints scored 47 points in Week 1 and Hill wasn’t a part of that scoring fun. He was targeted twice (once in the end-zone), but he ran fewer routes (6) than both TEs Juwan Johnson (11) and Foster Moreau (8). Hill is a TD-or-bust streamer.
Jake Ferguson – Questionable to play. It seems like Ferguson has avoided major injury altogether after taking an ugly hit to the knee against Cleveland. He was diagnosed with just a bone bruise and a minor sprain of his MCL, which was the best-case scenario. Ferguson’s day ended after the injury with just 3/15 receiving on five targets. The good news is that scoring was apocalyptically bad at the position in Week 1, so the low score didn’t kill your team. Every tight end was bad. Ferguson will likely sit out (or be very limited) this week.
Los Angeles Chargers at Carolina Panthers
Start ‘Em
J.K. Dobbins – As a former Dobbins Stan, I’ll happily admit that I didn’t see the explosion game coming. Dobbins started his Charger career off with 10/135/1 rushing and 3/4 receiving, looking explosive coming back from the Achilles tear. Per Next Gen Stats tracking, Dobbins’ top speed on his 60-yard run tied Saquon Barkley (19.92 mph) for the fastest speed by a running back. He’s ready to be the “1A” of this run game already. In Week 1, Dobbins out-snapped Gus Edwards 59% to 41% and played on 6 red-zone snaps to Edwards 4. This could not possibly be a better matchup for Dobbins to stay hot. Carolina was just steamrolled for 30/132/2 on the ground by Saints RBs in Week 1, and they will be without their best DL Derrick Brown (knee) for the rest of the season.
Sit ‘Em
Diontae Johnson – Was listed as a sit last week in a far tougher matchup. Bryce Young was the worst quarterback in the league, with a lowly 53% catchable pass rate against the Saints. This is after he finished dead last in catchable throws as a rookie. Johnson out-targeted the rookie Xavier Legette (6 to 3) before the Panthers started resting guys due to the blowout in the fourth quarter. Johnson ran just two routes in the final quarter as the backups took over. He’s a WR4.
Chuba Hubbard – I didn’t expect Hubbard to have an amazing Week 1 role, but what happened was far worse. This new coaching staff had Hubbard and Miles Sanders split snaps 55% to 36% (in favor of Hubbard) and split carries (6 to 5). Gross. Help us, Jonathon Brooks. You’re our only hope.
Ladd McConkey – Led the team in targets (7) and scored a TD despite being third among their WRs in routes. Josh Palmer (96% route share) and Quinten Johnston (82%) were the primary boundary receivers, while McConkey lined up in the slot on 62% of his routes. The bad news is that Herbert only attempted 26 passes, which doesn’t give us much of a runway for a ceiling in what should be a very run-heavy gameplan from the Chargers. This was a promising start for the rookie, but McConkey is on the FLEX/WR4 borderline.
Josh Palmer
Quinten Johnston – Has a pulse! Johnston led the Chargers in first-read target share (42%), while McConkey was second at 25%.
Xavier Legette – Finished with the team lead in targets (7) but four of them came in the fourth quarter of the blowout.
Justin Herbert – Unsurprisingly, the Chargers were 23rd in pass rate under expectation (-3.9%) and were a low-volume offense (53 plays | ninth-fewest). This type of environment will keep Herbert as a SuperFlex/QB2 option only.
Bryce Young – Uh oh.
Adam Thielen
New York Giants at Washington Commanders
Start ‘Em
Jayden Daniels – He just missed Terry McLaurin on a deep ball that would have made his debut absolutely nuclear for fantasy football. Daniels scrambled seven times for 77 yards, which led all QBs over Lamar Jackson (9 scrambles for 70 yards). Both of Daniels’ TDs were off of designed carries near the goal line.
Malik Nabers – The vibes are downright horrific for Daniel Jones, and the end of his Giants career may be near. Jones was shook from the first drive and never recovered. He only mustered 186 yards of passing offense despite throwing it 42 times in the game. Over his last seven starts, Jones has taken a catastrophic 35 sacks while owning a 2:8 TD-to-INT ratio. In fact, Jones has thrown more TDs to the opposing team – he has three pick-sixes – than to his own team (2) in this span. Malik Nabers is an outstanding talent and somehow came away with a serviceable 5/66 receiving (on 7 targets) despite the trainwreck. The good news? This is a potential blowup spot for Nabers. Jones just has to be serviceable. The Commanders just allowed 58.5 PPR points to Buccaneers’ wide receivers in Week 1.
FLEX Plays
Terry McLaurin – It was a disappointing Week 1 for McLaurin, with just four targets against a burnable Buccaneers secondary. This matchup keeps him in play on the WR2/3 borderline. The Giants just gave up 8/115/2 receiving on only 11 targets against the Vikings wide receivers last week. The problem is that Washington projects run-heavy, which will naturally limit McLaurin’s target upside. The Commanders had the fifth-lowest pass rate (-5.8% under expectation) despite trailing the entire game against Tampa Bay.
Devin Singletary – He got the borderline bell cow role (70% of snaps) but he had no chance at a decent day in fantasy thanks to Daniel Jones’ meltdown. At the very least, this matchup is way easier. Singletary remains a bet-on-volume RB2.
Brian Robinson – In our first look at this backfield, Robinson got 12 carries to Ekeler’s two. However, Ekeler doubled up Robinson (15 to 7) in routes. This type of compartmentalized backfield split doesn’t leave room for much upside, especially with Jayden Daniels getting goal-line carries. Daniels had three carries to Robinson’s 2 inside-the-10. This is a good spot. The Commanders are projected to score the 13th-most points on the Week 2 slate (22.8 implied total). Robinson has a little TD upside and is a low-end RB2 play.
Sit ‘Em
Austin Ekeler – Only on the board as a low-end FLEX in PPR leagues with his passing down role.
Daniel Jones – This matchup is the only thing leaving the light on. Washington was just torched by Baker Mayfield for 289 yards and 4 TDs.
Wan’Dale Robinson – Well, 6/44 receiving on 12 targets isn’t going to cut it. There is no way Robinson continues out-targeting Nabers.
Stash ‘Em
Tyrone Tracy – Has the talent. His 4.77 Yards Created and 0.35 missed tackles forced per carry in his final season at Purdue both ranked fourth-best in the rookie class. He showed excellent elusiveness and quick feet to make instant cuts, as 57% of his total missed tackles forced were by his elusiveness alone – like jukes.
Luke McCaffrey – In deeper PPR leagues.
Indianapolis Colts at Green Bay Packers
Must Start
Anthony Richardson – Well, he’s definitely healthy! This is no surprise to Fantasy Points readers, though. Our Edwin Porras was all over it this offseason. A serious shoulder injury cut his rookie season short, but Richardson clearly is healthy after his Air Show in Week 1. Richardson is the QB4 entering MNF with 27.4 FP after completing 9-of-21 passes for 212 yards, 2 TDs, and 1 INT. Of course, he also showed off his ability as a runner with an efficient 6/56/1 rushing line. This was a classic performance by Richardson and his talents – he’s inconsistent but also just an alien. He had one of the best and most insane throws that I’ve ever seen – a 65-yarder in the air off of his back foot to Alec Pierce for a TD. Richardson also had a few frustrating overthrows to Adonai Mitchell and a bad INT. However, this was exactly what you wanted to see here. His shoulder is fully healthy, and HC Shane Steichen isn’t holding him back at all. Richardson has played 15 quarters (basically 3.75 games) in his NFL career and already has a ridiculous 31/192/5 rushing result with 5.6 designed carries per start. For reference, 5.6 designed QB carries per game would have been second-most in the league last season behind only Jalen Hurts (6.1). He’s a set-and-forget QB1 option until his Week 14 bye.
Jonathan Taylor – He’s going to have a monster season with this type of usage. Taylor led all RBs in snaps (95%) and ran a route on 17 of the Colts' 24 pass plays. Targets will find him with that type of elite passing-down deployment.
Start ‘Em
Josh Jacobs – Will get the ball as many times as he can physically handle without throwing up as long as Malik Willis is under center.
FLEX Plays
Michael Pittman – I was fading Pittman hard this season (48 overall rank | 35 ADP) and came out of Week 1 even more concerned about his outlook. Adonai Mitchell led all receivers in average separation score and route win rate as a rookie in his debut. Pittman led the team in targets (8), but barely led his teammate in expected fantasy points (12.9 XFP for Pittman vs. 11.6 XFP for Mitchell). Plus, stud second-year WR Josh Downs (ankle) still has yet to take the field. Pittman’s volume isn’t safe.
Jayden Reed – I’m already regretting not drafting him more often. Over his last 12 games dating back to his rookie season, Reed is averaging 4.6 receptions and 60.1 receiving yards per game with 7 TDs. He’s added three more scores on the ground (11/154/3 rushing). I was a little bit worried that Reed would end up being a part-time player in this rotation, but he quickly ended that concern. Reed (26) ran more routes than Christian Watson (24), even though he’s still not finding his way onto the field when the Packers use two tight ends. Reed has run just four routes (4!) in his career when the Packers are in 12-personnel (1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR). He gets screen targets and runs designed for him, which should help him stay on the board as a WR3/FLEX without Jordan Love.
Adonai Mitchell – If Downs is out, Mitchell is on the board as an upside WR3/FLEX for all of the reasons outlined above. Pittman was the first-read on 39% of the pass plays, and that was followed by Mitchell (28%).
Sit ‘Em
Romeo Doubs and Christian Watson – No thank you with Willis under center.
Josh Downs – Returned to a limited practice on Wednesday. Downs remains a stash in PPR leagues. In their first eight games before Downs’ knee injury that he suffered midseason, Pittman out-targeted Downs 74 to 54, but only marginally beat Downs in yards per game (66.1 to 59.1). By expected fantasy points per route run, Pittman and Downs had identical scores (0.42). He’s going to play a big role in this offense when he’s able to return.
Tucker Kraft and Luke Musgrave – As expected, the Packers went with a TE by committee. Kraft (21 routes, 3 targets) led the way over Musgrave (eight routes, 2 targets) in Week 1.
Malik Willis – Stream Colts D/ST.
Stash 'Em
Marshawn Lloyd – He missed practically all of August due to injuries – in a very Kendre Miller-like fashion – but I am leaving the light on here. Lloyd was arguably the most explosive RB in the rookie class. With 5.66 Yards Created and 0.43 missed tackles forced, Lloyd posted the top marks. HC Matt LaFleur has always preferred a committee.
San Francisco 49ers at Minnesota Vikings
Must Start
Deebo Samuel – Had nine targets (5/54 receiving) and 8 carries (23 yards and a TD) in Week 1 without CMC. No defense played more two-high safety coverage in Week 1 than the Minnesota Vikings (83.7%). Since the beginning of last season, Samuel (26.3%) leads the 49ers in target share vs. 2-hi safety looks over Aiyuk (18.9%) and Kittle (15.4%).
Jordan Mason – Made the most of his opportunity by hammering the Jets for 152 scrimmage yards and a TD on 29 touches. This Christian McCaffrey injury situation quickly snowballed from a calf strain into Achilles tendonitis. The bottom line here is that Mason is a top-8 RB play on the slate. Mason is clearly talented enough to earn a part-time role – maybe a 70/30 split? – when CMC is healthy, too. This is not an easy matchup on paper. The Vikings have a chance to field one of the toughest run defenses in the NFL after they just drafted Dallas Turner. DC Brian Flores is in his second season after he just coached up this unit to 3.76 YPC (fourth-lowest) and a league-low 2% explosive run rate (of 15 or more yards) in 2023. Minnesota smothered New York’s ground game (14/45 rushing, 3.2 YPC) in Week 1.
Justin Jefferson – Sam Darnold’s debut could not have gone much better after an efficient 19-of-24 outing for 208 yards and 2 TDs. Darnold made just one mistake.
Start ‘Em
Aaron Jones – He’s still so good. Jones turned his 16 touches into an efficient 109 scrimmage yards and a TD in his debut while finishing second in missed tackles forced per carry (0.43) behind only the nimble-footed Rhamondre Stevenson (0.44). The Vikings are big underdogs here (+6 spread), but Jones remains locked into your RB2 spot.
Brandon Aiyuk – Better days are ahead after he posted the seventh-best separation win rate on his routes in Week 1. His slow start (2/28 receiving) in a tough matchup against the Jets shouldn’t have been much of a surprise, especially since he missed all of Training Camp. He ranked fourth-best in A.S.S. – average separation score (0.228) – and ninth-best in win rate (24.6%) last season.
George Kittle – No tight end ran more routes on their team’s pass plays than Kittle (88% route share) in Week 1. Without CMC on the field, Kittle was second on the 49ers in first-read targets (18.2% share) after Deebo (31.8%).
Brock Purdy – We had Purdy correctly listed as a QB to sit last week, but he’s back on the low-end QB1 board here in an easier matchup.
Sit ‘Em
Jordan Addison – It has been a rough year for the second-year Vikings receiver. Addison suffered another ankle sprain in Week 1 – this time, it was to his right foot. Addison missed practice time in August due to a left ankle sprain. His day was cut short with just 3/35 receiving (on four targets). After the game, HC Kevin O’Connell indicated that Addison is dealing with “significant soreness,” meaning he’s questionable at best for Week 2. Missing regular season games due to an injury would only compound a murky outlook here. Keep in mind, he’s still going to be suspended at some point after an offseason DUI, although that legal process could extend well into November-December. There is a chance that Addison’s suspension won’t take place until 2025 as the NFL lets the legal process play out. Jalen Nailor will command WR2 duties with Addison out.
Sam Darnold – If you drafted him on the cheap in SuperFlex leagues, you might have found QB2 gold.
Ty Chandler – Only a handcuff to Jones.
Cleveland Browns at Jacksonville Jaguars
Start ‘Em
Jerome Ford – OK, yeah. He bailed you out with a garbage-time TD to salvage what was an ugly day for the Browns offense. That was flukey. His role was amazing, though. Ford was the RB9 in snaps (73%) and the RB3 in expected fantasy points (20.8), trailing only Joe Mixon (24.3) and De’Von Achane (21.6) in Week 1. Ford took 12 carries while backups Pierre Strong (2) and D’Onta Foreman (0 carries) barely played. Nick Chubb is eligible to return off of I.R. in Week 5. Jacksonville's front seven held Miami’s ground game in check (23/67/1 rushing), but they continued to get peppered by RBs in the passing game after allowing 9/86 receiving. No defense gave up more receptions per game (6.6) to opposing running backs than Jacksonville did last season. Ford remains a rock-solid RB2.
Travis Etienne – It was a really rough Opening Day for Etienne after he got the ball punched out and fumbled on a near TD to extend the Jaguars lead in the second half. Tyreek Hill roasted the Jaguars secondary on the ensuing play for an 80-yard TD. Making matters worse was the fact that he was outgained by Tank Bigsby (73 to 44) on the same number of carries (12). The good news is that Etienne got a short, goal-line plunge to save his day for fantasy, and he still widely out-snapped Bigsby (66% to 36%). Etienne still has all of the receiving usage on lock – he was targeted three times, while Bigsby wasn’t looked at in the passing game. Bigsby stealing some early-down work won’t matter too much as long as Etienne keeps getting goal-line carries and all other receiving work. Bigsby undeniably carried over his strong preseason into the real thing.
Amari Cooper – Deshaun Watson looks completely lost. Keep in mind, Watson is coming back from a brutal shoulder injury and was still dealing with “arm soreness” in late August. Across 12 full starts as a Brown, Watson has completed 59.5% of his passes for a lowly 198.4 passing yards per game (6.2 YPA) and a mid 15:10 TD-to-INT ratio. Watson has always taken a lot of sacks due to his style of play, but it’s gotten to a point where that style is a detriment when the tradeoff isn’t big plays. Only four of Cooper’s 9 targets were catchable. Cooper and Watson just missed on a garbage-time TD that would have saved Cooper’s day (2/16 receiving on nine targets). This is a much easier matchup than last week. Jaguars top CB Tyson Campbell (hamstring) is out.
Evan Engram – He was nearly shut out in the opener (1/5 receiving on four targets) on a horrific slate for tight ends. I can’t imagine you have a better option, but this is a brutal matchup against the Browns athletic LB/S corps. Cleveland held Jake Ferguson to just 3 receptions for 15 yards (five targets) before his injury last week. Their athletic LB/S corps kept opposing TEs to a league-low 33.8 receiving yards per game last year.
FLEX Plays
Brian Thomas – In his debut, Thomas tied for the team lead in targets (4) with Engram and Kirk. Thomas led Jacksonville in receiving (47 yards). He has already developed so much as a route runner and looks ready for a bigger role. This is a really tough matchup, though. Cleveland kept opposing wide receivers to -5.6 FPG below their average last season (fourth-fewest) and just held CeeDee Lamb relatively in check (5/61 receiving on 10 targets).
Christian Kirk – The good news is that Kirk was second on the Jaguars in routes (80% share) in Week 1, but this offense had such low pass volume (24 dropbacks) that it didn’t really matter. He does get a slightly easier matchup than Thomas and Gabe Davis out wide, but not by much. The Browns held Cowboys slot receivers to just 49 yards on 15 targets in Week 1. Kirk projects as a WR3/FLEX in PPR leagues.
Sit ‘Em
Trevor Lawrence – Cleveland just held Dak Prescott to a 59% completion rate, 179 yards (5.6 YPA), 1 TD (0 INT), and three sacks in Week 1. Their defense is so fast. The Browns limited opposing quarterbacks to the third-fewest fantasy points per dropback (0.31) last season.
Deshaun Watson
Jerry Jeudy – We need Watson to start playing better to support one fantasy-relevant receiver in Cooper, let alone two. Jeudy (20%) just trailed Cooper (23%) in first-read target share in Week 1. He’ll likely see a few extra targets come his way with Njoku out.
Gabe Davis
David Njoku – Browns HC Kevin Stefanski said that Njoku is “week-to-week” after suffering an ankle injury against Dallas. Our Edwin Porras believes it’s a dreaded high ankle sprain. As of right now, he will not go on I.R. He led the team in receiving (4/44) despite playing in just over one-third of the game in Week 1.
Stash 'Em
Tank Bigsby – He looked much improved during the preseason and just put his best game on tape in Week 1. Bigsby’s processing is better after he played so slowly as a rookie.
Seattle Seahawks at New England Patriots
Start ‘Em
Rhamondre Stevenson – Was the offensive engine that helped propel the Patriots to an upset win combined with their shutout defensive performance in Week 1. Stevenson was arguably the best RB to take the field last weekend, leading all runners in missed tackles forced per carry with a 25/120/1 rushing performance while adding 3/6 receiving. Backup RB Antonio Gibson (hip) came into Opening Day a little bit nicked up, but it was a very strong sign that Stevenson took the majority of the passing down work. In fact, only Kyren Williams (74.5% route share) was more involved in the pass game than Stevenson (72.4%) among RBs. We’ll see if that sticks with Gibson getting healthier, but this type of usage will keep Stevenson locked in as a RB2 for the season.
Zach Charbonnet – Is in line for a bell cow role this week. Ken Walker (oblique) has a sports hernia injury that will eventually require surgery, per Edwin Porras. It’s just a matter of when Walker needs to have said surgery. Seahawks RB3 Kenny McIntosh doesn’t yet have an NFL carry.
FLEX Plays
D.K. Metcalf and Tyler Lockett – Well, this is a reminder that Lockett is going to catch 5 passes for 60 yards in every game until he’s 55 years old. We were expecting way more targets for Jaxon Smith-Njigba in Week 1. Seattle didn't have to throw much against Denver – Geno Smith attempted 25 passes – but it was Tyler Lockett (33% first-read target share) commanding the bulk of the primary reads on passing concepts, followed by D.K. Metcalf (22%) and Noah Fant (16.7%). JSN ran more routes (22) than Lockett (18) but only commanded two targets. Lockett also posted a better separation score (0.18 A.S.S.) in Week 1 over Metcalf (0.08) and JSN (0.05). Metcalf has another tough matchup this week after getting shutdown in shadow coverage by Broncos CB Patrick Surtain last week. Patriots CB Christian Gonzalez is allowing fewer FP per route run (0.20) than Surtain (0.24).
Sit ‘Em
Jaxon Smith-Njigba – I still believe he’s a talented receiver, but this was a bearish opener.
Geno Smith – We liked him as a streamer based on the matchup last week, and he came through as the QB7 (18.7 FP). The Patriots played excellent defense last week, though. Their tackling was strong. Geno is a SuperFlex/2QB league play for Week 2.
Noah Fant
Antonio Gibson – Stevenson is just so much better at football. Gibson has little standalone value. He’s a handcuff-only.
Patriots WR/TE – K.J. Osborn led this group in targets (6) in Week 1. I expect Ja’Lynn Polk (62% route share) to play way more as the season progresses. This target distribution is pretty gross stuff to look at:
New York Jets at Tennessee Titans
Must Start
Breece Hall – We could not have asked for better usage in Week 1. This is why we pushed for Hall and Bijan Robinson as top-3 picks in all redraft leagues – they are going to offer unmatched usage while we’re all starving for talented bell cows on decent offenses. Hall played on 84% of the snaps in Week 1, which trailed only Jonathan Taylor (95%), Kyren Williams (91%), and Robinson (90%) among RBs. For reference, 84% would have been the second-highest snap rate of Hall’s 2023 season. He only eclipsed 80% of the snaps once (and that was in Week 18).
Start ‘Em
Garrett Wilson – Once again, the volume (11 targets) was amazing. Wilson led the Jets in first-read targets (42.9%) and that was tied for the second-highest rate for Week 1, trailing only Cooper Kupp (58.3% first-read share). That’s the thing. The volume has always been strong – Wilson was WR9 in target share (27.1%) last season and WR22 two years ago (22.5%). We just need some touchdowns. Wilson has just seven career TDs on 326 targets across 35 games.
FLEX Plays
Tony Pollard – He ended with 16/82/1 rushing and added 3/12 receiving on four targets, while teammate Tyjae Spears had only 4/21 rushing and 4/11 receiving (on four targets). It’s notable that HC Brian Callahan regretted not getting Spears more involved in his Monday press conference after the game. Tennessee utilized two-back formations a few times, with Pollard leading the group in snaps at 61% over Spears (45%). Promisingly, the Titans' offensive line looks improved after finishing 31st in yards before contact last year. We’ll see if Callahan is good on his word and gets Spears more involved, but for now, this performance and usage props Pollard up into the RB2 mix.
Sit ‘Em
Calvin Ridley – With Hopkins limited, new WR Calvin Ridley led the team in targets (7) but only secured 3/50 receiving. Only three of Ridley’s targets were actually catchable by our Fantasy Points Data. Levis’ accuracy remains a huge concern here, which pushes Ridley down as a boom-or-bust WR3/FLEX. This is an absolutely brutal matchup. The Jets held the 49ers outside receivers to just 3/29 receiving on seven targets in Week 1. No unit allowed fewer yards per game (68.6) to opposing outside receivers than New York last year.
Tyjae Spears – Only on the board as a low-end FLEX in PPR leagues with his passing-down role (for now). Spears ran more routes (20) than Pollard (14) in Week 1.
DeAndre Hopkins – He was very limited in Week 1 while he continues to deal with the lingering effects of a knee (MCL) injury sustained in early August. Hopkins was only able to play on 27% of the snaps against Chicago. Now 32 years old, he’s on the wrong side of the Age Curve. Receivers at this point of their career typically average 70.6% of their career average output (according to Ryan Heath’s Age Curves). This means we should expect that Hopkins will average around 11.5 FPG this season (WR42 in PPR FPG), making him a WR3 or WR4 weekly option. QB Will Levis’ poor opener only compounds the concern here.
Allen Lazard and Mike Williams – The Jets really had Williams on a pitch count in Week 1. Lazard (28) ran way more routes than Williams (4) in the opener. We’ll see Williams ramp up and knock off the rust soon.
Aaron Rodgers – SuperFlex only.
Will Levis – These are two brutal back-to-back matchups for Levis. We were all over the Bears shutting down the Titans' pass game last week, and the Jets' secondary offers an even stiffer test here.
Stash 'Em
Tyler Conklin – Hold ‘em in FFPC/TE premium leagues. You have to think targets eventually find their way here. Conklin’s full-time usage (77.4% route share | eighth-highest among TE in Week 1) looks great on paper.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Detroit Lions
Must Start
Amon-Ra St. Brown – You’re going right back to him as a WR1. However, we’d be foolish not to ding St. Brown’s target projection a bit after Williams’ breakout. I’m open-minded here. Goff is good enough to support three receivers in fantasy, but there is still only one ball. St. Brown likely won’t push for a 30% target share again this season. This is still a blow-up spot. St. Brown hammered the Buccaneers for 20 receptions, 201 yards, and 2 TDs on 31 targets in two games against them last year.
Sam LaPorta – Tampa Bay will be without S Antoine Winfield (foot).
Mike Evans and Chris Godwin – The Lions just got absolutely hammered for 27/266/1 receiving (on 39 targets) by Rams wide receivers. Godwin is taking on a larger role after he led Evans in first-read target share (29.2% to 20.8%) in Week 1. The volume should be great here. Baker Mayfield dropped back to pass 38 and 45 times in their two losses to Detroit last season.
Start ‘Em
Jahmyr Gibbs – He split snaps (51% to 49%) and carries (11 to 17) with Montgomery, but as always, Gibbs’ passing down role (6 targets on 17 routes) gives him the leg up. Gibbs’ role was worth 19.2 expected fantasy points (RB7). Keep in mind, he was dealing with a minor hamstring injury just a few weeks ago, too. I expect Gibbs’ role to get slightly better as the season goes on. Crucially, Gibbs continues to make up ground on Montgomery in the red zone. Over their last 13 games, Montgomery and Gibbs both have 40 red-zone carries apiece. Gibbs has scored 11 TDs on those carries. Montgomery has nine scores.
Rachaad White – Keep an eye on his usage. For now, White remains a strong RB2. Bucky Irving (9 carries) has already cut into White’s early-down usage (15 carries) by a whisker. Much like Travis Etienne and Tank Bigsby in the Jaguars backfield, Irving cutting in a little bit won’t matter too much as long as White keeps dominating the passing down and goal-line work. White out-snapped Irving (8 to 0) in the red zone in Week 1.
Jared Goff – He came up small as the QB18 with just 12.4 FP in a good matchup last week. We liked Goff as a low-end QB1 last week, and he’s in an even better spot now. Over the last two seasons, Goff averages 21.0 fantasy points per game at home, but that dips to 13.5 FPG on the road. That’s the difference between Goff scoring as a top-5 fantasy QB (at home) and the QB30 on the road. Detroit has the best implied team total (29.5 points) by nearly three points over Kansas City (26.8).
FLEX Plays
Jameson Williams – HC Dan Campbell spent all summer hyping how great he looked, and, well, he wasn’t wrong! Williams looked like the player we saw coming out of Alabama in Week 1. The usage was phenomenal. Williams’ 90% route share and 9 targets marked career highs, which he turned into 5/121/1 receiving. According to Next Gen Stats, he hit 21.03 MPH on his 36-yard reception, which was the fifth-fastest top speed among WRs in Week 1. Given all of the ups and downs we’ve experienced with this player, I wanted to “see it” before trusting Williams in lineups last week. We’re there. At worst, Williams is an upside WR3 for Week 2 decisions.
David Montgomery – Always in play as a RB2/FLEX with his strong TD chances. Montgomery has scored 16 TDs in 17 full games with the Lions (including playoffs).
Stream ‘Em
Baker Mayfield – We noted how good of a spot Baker was in last week, but I didn’t list him as a top streamer. Mistakes were made. Not again! Mayfield was terrific in Week 1 (289 yards, 4 TDs) and he finds himself in another potential streaming spot here for 1-QB leagues. This game has the highest over/under (51.5 total points) on the Week 2 slate and the Lions new-look secondary allowed Stafford to complete 69% of his passes for 317 yards (on 49 attempts). Detroit gave up the fourth-most passing fantasy points per dropback (0.42) a season ago.
Sit ‘Em
Jalen McMillan – He’s a decent stash in deep leagues, but I don’t see a pathway to consistent targets unless Evans or Godwin miss games.
Cade Otton
Stash 'Em
Bucky Irving
Los Angeles Rams at Arizona Cardinals
Must Start
Cooper Kupp – If we redrafted today, Kupp would be a top-10 pick. Puka Nacua (knee) is on I.R. and his injury might require more rest beyond the next four games.
Kyren Williams – He played on 91% of the snaps and was on the field for every single play in the red-zone in Week 1. Williams underperformed slightly based on his role, too. By expected fantasy points, Williams’ role was worth 19.8 PPR XFP. He scored 14.4 actual FP. Wheels up.
Trey McBride – Led the team in targets (9) and air yards (37% share) in Week 1. This is an amazing spot. McBride crushed the Rams for 11 receptions and 120 yards (on 14 targets) in two meetings last season.
James Conner – This is only the fourth time that the Cardinals have been favored since the start of 2022. They’re slight -1.5-point favorites over the Rams.
Start ‘Em
Kyler Murray – Finished as the QB15 with 14.2 FP on Opening Day. Going into Buffalo against the always well-coached Bills defense is never an easy feat. The good news is that Murray’s agility and mobility looks all of the way back after he tore his ACL in December, 2022. This is clearly a spot for him to hit a ceiling. The Cardinals have the eighth-best implied total (25.3 points) for Week 2. The Rams secondary allowed 7.8 yards per pass attempt to Goff a week ago.
Marvin Harrison – Don’t panic. His Week 1 usage – or, lack thereof – was mostly gameplan related. The Bills kept everything in front of them with two-high safety coverage last week. I can’t answer why the Cardinals didn’t draw up some designed looks his way but I do know that the Rams play far more one-high safety coverage, which should give Harrison a few more one-on-ones.
Stream ‘Em
Matthew Stafford – We liked Stafford as a top streamer last week and he was decent for fantasy with 15.7 FP (QB12). The INT in the end zone at the end of the first half was really his lone bad mistake. Otherwise, Stafford continued to look phenomenal. Over his last eight games (including playoffs) after returning from a midseason thumb injury last year, Stafford is averaging 298.6 passing yards per game (8.0 YPA) with an 18:4 TD-to-INT ratio. The Rams offensive line is a concern, and we’ll see Stafford continue to try to get the ball out quickly. His time to throw (2.47 seconds) was 10th-quickest in Week 1. I’m still trusting Stafford as a low-end QB1 streamer again.
Colby Parkinson – With Nacua out, at least 25% of the Rams targets just opened up for the taking. Cooper Kupp can’t see 21 targets every week. Parkinson was immediately entrusted with a huge Week 1 role – he was second only to Kittle in route share among TEs. I’m playing Parkinson as a low-end TE1 streamer with this open opportunity. Backup TE Davis Allen (back) is out.
FLEX Plays
Demarcus Robinson – Finished second on the Rams in routes (86% share) and earned seven targets in Week 1. The Cardinals just gave up 12/152/2 receiving (on 14 targets) to Bills wideouts.
Sit ‘Em
Greg Dortch – Led the Cardinals in first-read targets (28.6% share) over McBride (23.8%) and Harrison (14.3%). Dortch is only in play in deep PPR leagues.
Michael Wilson
Tyler Johnson – Only a stash in deeper PPR leagues. Stafford is playing at such a high level that it’s likely he can elevate either Robinson or Johnson as a WR3 until Nacua returns.
Stash ‘Em
Trey Benson – Conner has missed at least three games in five of the last six seasons.
Pittsburgh Steelers at Denver Broncos
Start ‘Em
Najee Harris – With Jaylen Warren still a little gimpy from a hamstring injury, Harris led the Steelers in carries in a landslide in Week 1. Harris did his usual thing where he took 21 touches for 79 yards. I don’t think we can expect Warren to remain at a lowly 29% snap rate for long. Warren and Harris both ran eight routes apiece. This is obviously an amazing matchup. The Broncos had the worst run defense in the league last season and they were just beat up by the Seahawks for 28/115/1 on the ground.
FLEX Plays
George Pickens – Was terrific in Week 1 with 6/85 receiving (on 7 targets) and the fourth-best average separation score (0.45) among wide receivers. This is a matchup to temper expectations. Broncos CB Pat Surtain locked down D.K. Metcalf in shadow coverage last week.
{{TWEET|
Week 1 Shadow Report per @FantasyPtsData
- Pat Surtain playing up to the new contract
- Gonzalez being used as a shadow corner for NE
- Mike Evans cooked St-Juste on the shadow
- Jaire Alexander lost the battle to AJB pic.twitter.com/hITUaKYa7F— Chris Wecht (@ChrisWechtFF)
href="https://twitter.com/ChrisWechtFF/status/1833526003597250887?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">September 10, 2024
}}
Sit ‘Em
Javonte Williams and Jaleel McLaughlin – These two are going to cannibalize each other’s production quite often. Williams out-snapped McLaughlin (51% to 36%), but it was McLaughlin who saw more carries (10 to 8) and targets (5 to 2). I was pretty concerned with Williams’ outlook this season, but I didn’t foresee McLaughlin taking over as the “1A” this early. Rookie Audric Estime (ankle) is on I.R. and will miss at least the next four games to further condense things here, but both of these RBs are uninspiring RB3/FLEX options on a bad projected offense. Denver has the third-lowest team total (17 points).
Courtland Sutton – This makes two back-to-back tough matchups. Sutton was targeted 12 times in Week 1, however, only five were catchable. We think Sutton will catch shadow coverage treatment from Steelers CB Joey Porter Jr. There are only a handful of corners that are worthy of being afraid of, and Porter is one of them. He covered Drake London on 65% of his snaps in Week 1 and allowed one catch for 7 yards.
Jaylen Warren – Until we see an uptick in usage.
Justin Fields – To the surprise of literally no one, the Steelers were dead last in pass rate over expectation (-9.1%) and slow-paced (31 second in between snaps | ninth-slowest). The good news is that Arthur Smith immediately dialed up some designed runs. Fields will remain on the low-end QB1 radar with his rushing ability Fields tied Jalen Hurts for the most designed QB carries (10) in Week 1, and he finished with 14/57 on the ground. Fields is averaging 6.2 YPC and 64 rushing yards per game over his last 29 starts dating back to 2022.
Bo Nix – SuperFlex leagues only.
Pat Freiermuth
Cincinnati Bengals at Kansas City Chiefs
Must Start
Rashee Rice – Has officially taken over as the Chiefs top target. Across their last 12 games (including the preseason), Rice has out-targeted Kelce by a 101 to 90 margin. Rice is averaging 16.3 PPR points per game in this stretch. For reference, that would have made him the WR14 in fantasy football last season – one-tenth of a point behind Ja’Marr Chase.
Travis Kelce
Isiah Pacheco
Ja’Marr Chase – Even with limited practice this August, Chase ran a route on 86% of the Bengals pass plays and led the team in first-reads (26% share) in Week 1. Since the start of last season, Chase is averaging +21% more yards per route run (2.31) vs. two-high safety coverages than he is against one-high looks (1.93 YPRR).
Patrick Mahomes – The Bengals ran the sixth-most one-high safety coverage (59%) and they just came out in Week 1 with a whopping 76% 1-hi rate (second-most). This is DC Lou Anarumo’s calling card. When these two teams last met in Week 17 last season, he called a one-high safety look on 61% of Mahomes’ dropbacks. If we get a similar gameplan here, it’s a boost for Mahomes. Last year, Mahomes averaged 0.49 fantasy points per dropback against one-high safety coverage and that dipped by -22.5% down to 0.40 FP/DB vs. two-high coverages.
Start ‘Em
Joe Burrow – He’s a notoriously slow starter and the Patriots deserve a lot of credit for their game plan and execution in the opener. Tee Higgins' late hamstring injury just made matters worse. Burrow averaged the sixth-quickest time to throw and the sixth-lowest average depth of throw in the opener. The Chiefs would love to force Burrow to check down a ton again. As always, Kansas City DC Steve Spagnuolo is going to run a ton of two-high safety coverage and keep everything in front of them. The Chiefs dropped back 2-hi safeties on 78% of their coverage snaps in Week 1. The last time Burrow took on the Chiefs was back in 2022. In their two meetings, the Chiefs ran two-high safeties on 72% and 84% of Burrow’s dropbacks, respectively. Burrow is a low-end QB1 in this possible shootout.
FLEX Plays
Xavier Worthy – He only needed two touches to score 20 FP in his debut. The ball will certainly find Worthy more after his phenomenal usage in Week 1. Worthy tied for the team lead in routes with Rice and tied with Kelce for the second-most first-reads (14.3% share) behind WR1 Rice (38.1% first-read share). Vet WR Hollywood Brown (shoulder surgery) is on I.R. and might miss the entire regular season with the injury.
Zack Moss – In our first look at this new Bengals backfield, it was Moss who led the way in snaps (65% to 35%), carries (9 to 3), targets (4 to 3), and red-zone snaps (4 to 3). Cincinnati should try to run the ball a bit more against the Chiefs two-high looks.
Andrei Iosivas – Led the team in routes (94% share) and tied with Chase for the team lead in targets (6) in Week 1. The possible high volume shootout gives Iosivas some legs as a lower end WR3/FLEX in this spot.
Sit ‘Em
Chase Brown
Tee Higgins – This is the third time in Higgins’ career that he’s missed games due to a hamstring injury.
Mike Gesicki
Stash 'Em
Samaje Perine – The Chiefs are so thin at RB behind Pacheco.
Chicago Bears at Houston Texans (SNF)
Must Start
Joe Mixon – As expected, Mixon operated as the Texans clear bell-cow RB in his debut. Mixon dominated with 30/159/1 rushing while adding 3/19 as a receiver. His role was the most valuable in football by expected fantasy points as he took 72% of the snaps and 91% of the RB carries. Veteran RB Cam Akers was a healthy scratch, while Dameon Pierce (11% of snaps) played less than passing-down RB Dare Ogunbowale (16%). This is bullish for Mixon’s stock and was the best possible thing for his outlook this season. A talented bell cow in Mixon attached to C.J. Stroud will yield back-end RB1 fantasy numbers, at worst. Backup RB Dameon Pierce (hamstring) didn’t practice Friday.
Nico Collins – In his last eight games with Stroud under center, Collins has piled up 56 receptions for 916 yards and 4 TDs on 74 targets. That’s 21.5 PPR points per game.
D.J. Moore – The Bears targets will be condensed this week around Moore with the rookie Odunze questionable and Allen dealing with a heel injury. He’s a Must Start after the Texans struggled so badly in the secondary in Week 1.
Start ‘Em
C.J. Stroud – It was a strong Week 1 for Stroud with 18.7 FP (QB7). You’re obviously not moving off of him as a QB1, but the Bears are the most-improved defense in the league. This is not a cakewalk and a much more difficult matchup than last week. Stiil, Houston has the fifth-highest implied team total (26) for Week 2, which is a nose hair behind Dallas (26.3).
Tank Dell and Stefon Diggs – Diggs scored the two short TDs, however, Dell actually saw one more first-read target than Diggs. You’re going right back to both of these receivers as WR2 plays. Diggs’ average depth of target (1.3 yards) is sure to rise but it’s very interesting that he’s established as the Texans primary slot receiver now. Diggs ran 64% of his routes lined up in the slot in Week 1. He’s going to see a ton of one-on-one coverage underneath in this role.
FLEX Plays
D’Andre Swift – The result (5 FP) was bad. The usage (72% of snaps) was great. Swift handled 10 carries to just two apiece for backups Khalil Herbert and Travis Homer. Second-year RB Roschon Johnson was a healthy scratch.
Sit ‘Em
Caleb Williams – The #1 overall pick had a rough debut with just 93 yards passing on 29 attempts. The good news is that Williams didn’t turn the ball over, but the Bears passing attack was non-existent in Week 1. Their best play of the day was a 13-yarder to D.J. Moore. Williams looked like a rookie in his debut, especially early in the first quarter after he took a gigantic sack, when he just kept backpedaling to evade pressure. The Bears won that game thanks to their defense, special teams, and Will Levis’ galaxy brain. You’re obviously not taking Williams out of SuperFlex lineups in 2-QB leagues, but going on the road into Houston against a well-coached defense leaves him outside of the top-12 plays this weekend. This group is way too talented, though. Better days are ahead.
Rome Odunze – Might be partially limited this week as he rehabs a Grade I MCL (knee) sprain.
Keenan Allen – Did not practice all week while nursing a heel injury. Edwin Porras thinks that Allen sits and Odunze has a shot to play.
Dalton Schultz – Dealing with an ankle injury.
Cole Kmet
Atlanta Falcons at Philadelphia Eagles (MNF)
Must Start
Jalen Hurts – He slogged his way to 18 FP in Week 1, but it was far from a good real-life performance from Hurts. HC Kellen Moore used more pre-snap motion to try to help define reads for Hurts, but Hurts was super inconsistent as a passer. I’ll bet we see this offense begin to gel in the coming weeks.
Saquon Barkley
Bijan Robinson
Kyle Pitts
Devonta Smith – Will be a PPR stud this season. Smith lined up in the slot on 75% of his routes in Week 1. This is the dream. It’s also a pretty big change after Smith lined up in the slot over 50% of the time just once across the entire 2023 season. The other great news? This offense is hyper-concentrated. Brown (37%) and Smith (32%) accounted for 69% of Hurts’ first-reads in the opener. Nice. With A.J. Brown nursing a hammy injury, Smith is now Must Start.
Start ‘Em
A.J. Brown – Didn’t practice on Friday with a hamstring injury. This call comes down to your roster. If you have a solid WR2/3 on your bench to play over Brown, I’d do it. If you want to pick up Jahan Dotson and wait on Brown’s status on Monday, that’s a decent backup plan.
FLEX Plays
Drake London – We noted that it was going to be a tough matchup for London last week, but I felt it was one he could win, so long that his quarterback was in decent form. Kirk Cousins was a shell of himself in Week 1. I’m not panicking long-term here because Michael Penix is one hell of an insurance policy. For now, you’re playing London as a low-end WR2/FLEX. This shouldn’t be too difficult of a matchup after he was clamped down by Steelers CB Joey Porter Jr. The Eagles busted coverage against Jayden Reed for a 70 yard TD last week and their new secondary is going to take time to come together.
Sit ‘Em
Kirk Cousins – Beyond the vanilla and predictable offense the Falcons were running in Week 1, it seemed like Cousins was struggling to drive off of his back foot when throwing. He tore his right Achilles last year. Brett Whitefield noted that Cousins’ ball was dying as it got to receivers, a clear sign the passes lacked velocity. Cousins’ mobility is limited for now and that will limit this offense. He’s a SuperFlex league only play.
Dallas Goedert – Has scored just 10 TDs in 42 games since Hurts took over as the starter.
Darnell Mooney
Stash’ Em
Tyler Allgeier – One of the best handcuffs in fantasy.
