Welcome to Week 14 Start ‘Em, Sit ‘Em.
This game-by-game article breaks down every player that is relevant for fantasy football. As always, please use our projections to make your start/sit decisions every week. The analysis in this piece provides color – and a lot of stats – behind the projections.
Unless stated otherwise, all of the data in this article is from Fantasy Points Data and specifically curated from the Data Suite. Our collection team has charted every play from every game over the last three seasons, and we will have fresh, weekly data imported into the tools on Monday after the games.
The Start’ Em, Sit ‘Em key
Must Start — Don’t take them out of your lineup, even if there is a fire.
Start ‘Em — The top-12 at QB and TE; top-20 plays at RB; top-25 at WR.
FLEX Plays — All of the best RB2/WR3 plays.
Stream ‘Em — The best one-week plays at QB and TE for streaming off of the waiver wire.
Sit ‘Em — Don’t play them in your lineups. This could be due to a poor role, matchup, or performance.
Stash ‘Em — Step 1: Hold them on your bench. Step 2: Profit.
Good luck this week!
Green Bay Packers at Detroit Lions (TNF)
Their last meeting was played outside in rainy/windy conditions in Lambeau. Back in 2023, the Packers-Lions two meetings resulted in 51 and 54 points scored. This game total (51.5 over/under) is the highest on the slate by two points over Bills-Rams.
Must Start
Josh Jacobs – Has cleared 90 yards from scrimmage yards in eight straight games. In fact, Jacobs (103.9) is RB7 in YFS/G, just behind Jahmyr Gibbs (104.6). Jacobs’ 77% snap rate in Week 13 was his second-highest figure of the season. Jacobs had a decent day against the Lions back in Week 8 on his limited carries (13/95 rushing), but Detroit’s run defense has since put the clamps down over the last month. The Lions held the Texans, Jaguars, Colts, and Bears to 2.6 YPC and 1 TD from Weeks 10-13. They’ll be tested here. Detroit is down DT DJ Reader and EDGE Josh Pascal due to injuries.
Amon-Ra St. Brown – The WR6 in FPG (18.0). Amon-Ra’s matchup is made better with the Packers missing CB Jaire Alexander (knee) for a third-straight game.
Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery – I still can’t believe that Gibbs was held under 12 FP last week. It felt like he should have scored 20 FP with the way that he was running. This duo has combined for an unbelievable 22 TDs in 12 games this season. Dating back to last year, Montgomery has scored 26 TDs in 28 games (including playoffs) as a Lion.
Start ‘Em
Jayden Reed – In two games without Romeo Doubs, the Packers have condensed first-read targets around Reed (29% share) for a 7/102/2 receiving result on 12 targets. This is the best possible matchup for Reed to get loose in the interior. Detroit allows +4.8 schedule-adjusted FPG above average (most) and 103.8 yards per game (second-most) to opposing slot receivers. He had 5/113 receiving in their last matchup.
Jared Goff – After he crushed the Jaguars for 34.6 FP three weeks ago, Goff has backed up with just QB25 and QB19 scoring weeks in fantasy. He projects as a low-end QB1 again. Green Bay is a perfectly neutral matchup by schedule-adjusted passing FPG allowed (16th), and Detroit’s implied total (27.5 points) is tied with Cincinnati for second-highest on the slate. With six teams out on a bye, Goff is a top-12 option.
Jordan Love – Excluding the Week 8 game where he left early due to injury, Love is averaging 19.8 fantasy points per start (QB7). He’s tough to bench, but this is not a great matchup. Detroit holds opposing quarterbacks to -2.9 schedule-adjusted FPG below average (third-fewest), and a league-low 0.30 passing FP per dropback. Love had a down game for his standards in wet conditions vs. Detroit back in Week 9.
Sam LaPorta – We’ve seen LaPorta earn at least 17% of the targets in three straight games. It’s a welcome, but modest increase. This is after he saw just 8% of the looks in Weeks 1-7 to open the season. The Packers allow the fifth-most schedule-adjusted FPG above average (+3.2) to opposing tight ends.
Tucker Kraft – In two games without Romeo Doubs this season, Kraft has 4/88/2 receiving (vs. Rams) and 6/78 (vs. Bears). Kraft has posted his two highest target shares in each of these games with 19% and 21% of looks, respectively. This is the toughest matchup for opposing tight ends – Detroit is allowing a league-low 31.3 yards per game – but Kraft’s increased involvement has my interest here.
FLEX Plays
Jameson Williams – WR35 in FPG (12.7). Williams did not play in Week 9 vs. Green Bay due to suspension. The Packers have ditched playing man-to-man coverage without CB Jaire Alexander. Over the last two weeks, Green Bay has deployed zone coverage 88% and 94% of their opponents pass plays. In their nine games together, St. Brown leads the Lions in first-read target share (34%) vs. zones followed by Williams (26%) and LaPorta (12%). Williams has been less efficient vs. zones (1.8 YPRR) compared to man coverage (4.0 YPRR).
Sit ‘Em
Christian Watson and Dontayvion Wicks – With Doubs out last week, Watson led the Packers in routes (75% share) but only earned three targets (2/67 receiving). Wicks (5) earned more targets than Watson (3) last week, but he had limited production. In two games without Doubs on the field, Wicks has just 4/30 and 2/20 receiving to show for it.
Romeo Doubs – Out again (concussion).
Tim Patrick
Atlanta Falcons at Minnesota Vikings
Must Start
Bijan Robinson – Atlanta is leaning heavily on Robinson. Over the last five weeks, the only two teams that are more run-heavy than the Falcons (-7% pass rate under expectation) are the Colts (-8%) and Eagles (-9%). The Falcons came out of their bye and decided to load him up with 32 touches worth 29.4 expected PPR points. He actually scored 25.5 FP.
Justin Jefferson – The Falcons came out of their bye week and played man coverage on a season-high 33% of their pass coverage snaps. If they take a similar game plan here, they might get roasted. No wide receiver in football is averaging more yards per route run (3.67) against man-to-man than Jefferson.
Start ‘Em
Sam Darnold – After his meltdown four weeks ago vs. Jaguars (3 INTs), Darnold has finished as a top-12 scorer among quarterbacks in fantasy in each of his last three outings. He has just one turnover in this span, which has helped propel him to a higher floor. Darnold had 13 turnovers in his 9 previous starts. Nothing about this matchup should scare you off of him. Atlanta gives up the sixth-most passing FPG (15.9). Darnold is QB8 by FPG (18.4), just one-tenth of a point ahead of Tua Tagovailoa (18.3 FPG).
Drake London and Darnell Mooney – This duo has combined for a whopping 63% of Cousins’ first-read targets. London is WR14 in FPG (15.4) while Mooney (13.6 FPG – WR30) has been one of the best value picks in fantasy. Cousins’ targets condense almost solely around this duo when he’s been blitzed this season. London has earned a target on 34% of his blitzed routes (27% vs. non-blitzed routes). Mooney has also earned slightly more targets per route run (27%) on blitzes (vs. 21% TPRR no-blitz). The Vikings allow a league-high +7.4 schedule adjusted FPG above average and they give up the third-most yardage (208.4 per game) to opposing wide receivers.
Aaron Jones – It was a rough Sunday for Jones last week. He fumbled for a second straight game and dropped a would-be TD on a perfectly placed pass in the back of the end zone from Darnold. As a result, Jones’ snaps were cut down to just 51%. He scored the game-winning TD to save his fantasy day last week. We’re not projecting that Jones will lose much volume, and this could be a perfect bounce-back spot as -5.5 favorites at home over Atlanta.
FLEX Plays
Jordan Addison – As always, Addison is in play as a WR3/FLEX option. He’s WR36 by FPG (12.6), a point behind Mooney. Addison has become more consistently involved as of late with at least 19% of the targets in three straight games.
Sit ‘Em
T.J. Hockenson – TE14 by FPG (9.7) since returning in Week 9 from knee surgery. Backup and blocking TE Josh Oliver’s return looms large. Oliver has missed the last two games with an ankle injury. Hockenson’s route involvement was a lowly 57% in three games with Oliver (40% route share) on the field, but it spiked up to 71% over the last two weeks. Any loss in participation would really hurt Hockenson’s stock further. Over the last two weeks, Hockenson is a distant third by first-read target share (18%) behind Addison (31%) and Jefferson (26%).
Kyle Pitts – Has earned fewer than 14% of the targets in 9-of-12 games.
Kirk Cousins – Beyond throttling the Buccaneers for 8 TDs in two games, Cousins has a 9:12 TD-to-INT ratio in his other 10 starts this season. Yikes. He ranks 28th-of-35 QBs in fantasy points per dropback (0.35) when blitzed, which is of huge concern this week. The Vikings blitz second most often (39%). By comparison, Cousins’ efficiency increases by +23% when he’s not blitzed (0.43 FP/DB).
Ray Ray McCloud
Cam Akers
Stash ‘Em
Tyler Allgeier – Backup RB Jace McCllelan is dealing with a knee injury.
New Orleans Saints at New York Giants
Must Start
Alvin Kamara – In nine starts with Derek Carr under center, Kamara is putting up 126.0 scrimmage yards per game. For reference, this would make him the RB2 in YFS/G behind Saquon Barkley (147.2). Kamara’s goal-line volume is much safer now that Taysom Hill (ACL) is out. The Giants just put stud DL Dexter Lawrence on I.R.
Malik Nabers – The Giants came out and funneled the ball to Nabers with a 45% first-read target share in Week 13. Nabers hasn’t cleared 75 or more yards receiving since Week 4, but he has a good chance to hit a ceiling game here. The Saints allow a league-high 211 yards per game to opposing wide receivers.
Start ‘Em
Tyrone Tracy – Even after his recent fumble issues, Tracy widely out-snapped Devin Singletary by a 75% to 22% margin last week. Tracy (9/32/1 rushing) and Singletary (7/23) split carries, but Tracy has a stranglehold on all of the passing down work (24 routes to 4 for Singletary). New Orleans allows a league-high 5.2 YPC to opposing RBs.
FLEX Plays
Marquez Valdes-Scantling – He only earned three targets last week, but, once again, MVS made the most of them. MVS has turned his 11 targets into a ridiculous 8/237/4 receiving with the Saints. He’s bound to regress, but the thing is that this team has nothing left now that Hill is out. Chris Olave will miss at least one more game on I.R. (concussion). Valdes-Scantling leads the Saints in routes in back-to-back games (80% share). The Giants allow the fifth-most deep passing yards (55.3 per game) and a league-high 71% completion rate on throws of 20+ air yards.
Sit ‘Em
Derek Carr – SuperFlex only.
Juwan Johnson – Will be relied upon more heavily now that Taysom Hill (ACL) is out. In fact, Johnson set a season-high 77% route participation in Week 13, and he earned six targets (5/36 receiving). I’d be into Johnson as a streaming option if it weren’t for this brutal matchup. The Giants allow a league-low -4.7 schedule-adjusted FPG below average to tight ends.
Darius Slayton and Wan’Dale Robinson – The Giants' targets will condense around their receivers with rookie TE Theo Johnson (foot) unfortunately out for the season.
Drew Lock – Stream the Saints D/ST.
Devin Singletary
Kevin Austin
Jacksonville Jaguars at Tennessee Titans
Must Start
Calvin Ridley – Over the last four weeks with Levis back under center, Ridley leads the Titans in targets (27) with a juicy 17.9-yard average depth of target (16/280/2 receiving – 14.0 FPG). The Jaguars have reverted back to playing man coverage, deploying it on 60% and 42% of their opponents' pass plays in each of their last two games. Ridley is WR5 in yards per route run (2.99) as he’s dominated targets (34% share – WR3) vs. man coverage. Jaguars top CB Tyson Campbell (thigh) is questionable.
Start ‘Em
Tony Pollard – The Titans got smoked early by the Commanders last week, which forced them to abandon their run game. Tyjae Spears returned last week, but Pollard still widely out-snapped Spears by a 72% to 26% margin. Pollard took 8 carries (35 yards). Spears had just one. Most importantly, Pollard was significantly more involved in the passing game (6 targets) over Spears (0). Only the Panthers (1.4) allow more TDs per game to opposing backfields than Jacksonville (1.3).
Brian Thomas – The Jaguars placed Trevor Lawrence (concussion/shoulder) on I.R., effectively ending his season. Mac Jones had his best outing of the year in relief last week vs. Houston, completing 20-of-32 passes for 235 yards (7.3 YPA) and 2 TD. Brian Thomas (4/76/1 receiving) and Parker Washington (6/103/1) each had great games with Jones. The Titans secondary has been hammered by opposing wide receivers for 38.8 PPR FPG over their last three games vs. Vikings, Texans, and Commanders.
Evan Engram – He’s either had the lead or co-led the Jaguars in targets in 7-of-8 games.
FLEX Plays
Nick Westbrook-Ikhine – This is such a great matchup for Westbrook-Ikhine to remain on fire. He’s scored a TD in seven of his last eight games, and his involvement continues to come up with at least 16% of the targets in four of his last five outings. He’s on the WR3/FLEX radar with six teams out on a bye in this ideal matchup. The Jaguars allow a league-high 128 yards per game to opposing outside wide receivers.
Sit ‘Em
Will Levis – Over his last four starts since returning from a midseason shoulder injury, Levis has finished as fantasy’s QB9, QB20, QB10, and QB21 in weekly scoring. That’s SuperFlex gold, but not exactly what we’re shooting for in 1-QB formats. Levis is playing significantly better in this stretch, with 240 YPG (8.4 YPA) and a 7:2 TD-to-INT ratio. This low scoring game environment (39.5 over/under) puts a damper on a pristine matchup. Jacksonville allows a league-high 19.5 passing FPG and the most deep passing yards per game (77.9).
Travis Etienne and Tank Bigsby – This backfield went mostly in favor of Etienne (13/46 rushing) over Bigsby (7/28 rushing) last week. Bigsby actually ran slightly more routes (19) than Etienne (15).
Parker Washington – Coming off a career-best game (6/103/1 receiving on 12 targets). In his first start without Gabe Davis (knee – I.R.), Washington led the Jaguars in routes (87% share) and targets (29%).
Tyler Boyd
Chig Okonkwo
Mac Jones
Stash ‘Em
Tyjae Spears
Las Vegas Raiders at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Must Start
Brock Bowers – Putting up a ridiculous 16.5 PPR points per game, which would easily beat Sam LaPorta’s mark (14.1 FPG) last season as the most by a rookie TE all-time. This is another perfect matchup. Tampa Bay allows 66.7 yards per game to tight ends (third-most), and they just allowed a career-best 5/77 receiving to Tommy Tremble last week.
Bucky Irving – Absolutely dominated on the ground for a career-best 25/152/1 rushing last week vs. Panthers. Irving sustained hip and back injuries during the game, but he played through them. Over the last two games since the bye week, this backfield has shifted heavily towards Irving in all facets. Irving has far more carries (37 to 23) and more targets (9 to 2) over White.
Start ‘Em
Mike Evans – Missed practice on Wednesday-Thursday with hamstring/calf injuries. Hopefully, it’s just maintenance. Evans shredded the Panthers for 8/118/1 receiving on a team-high 12 targets last week. He earned a whopping 44% of the first-read targets and 63% of the air yards in Week 13.
Baker Mayfield – Has finished as a top-8 scoring QB in fantasy football in 7-of-9 games with Mike Evans.
Jakobi Meyers – In six starts without Davante Adams on the field, Meyers has turned his 55 targets into 39/452/1 receiving (15.4 PPR FPG). By raw targets per game (9.2) in this span, Meyers ranks WR6, just behind Tee Higgins (9.3 T/G). Tampa Bay is getting hammered for 206 total yards per game to opposing wide receivers (fourth-most). Aidan O’Connell’s 340 yards last week were most by a Raider QB all season, by far.
Cade Otton – He earned 7 targets last week, but was bottled up to just 4/20 receiving.This is another great matchup for Otton. The Raiders give up the fourth-most schedule adjusted FPG above average (+3.5) to opposing tight ends on the season, and they’ve been even worse as of late. Las Vegas has been obliterated for 103.3 yards per game (!!) to TEs over the last five weeks. No, that is not a typo. Yes, I double-checked.
FLEX Plays
Rachaad White
Sit ‘Em
Ameer Abdullah and Sincere McCormick – This backfield is headed towards some sort of committee. McCormick’s 12/64 rushing last week vs. Chiefs was the second-most yards a Raider RB has posted in a single game this season. He’s earned more work. Ameer Abdullah (10/39 rushing) split carries and played way more in the passing game (20 routes) over McCormick (7) last week. Mattison didn’t play last week, and he’s still rehabbing an ankle injury.
Aidan O’Connell – SuperFlex only. This is a great matchup on paper. Tampa Bay gives up 17.6 passing FPG (third-most). It’s a tiny sample of 31 dropbacks, but O’Connell has performed very well against the blitz by completing 67% of his throws for 9.5 YPA, 2 TD (0 INT), while only taking one sack. Tampa Bay blitzes more often than any team in the league (43%).
Sterling Shepard
Tre Tucker
Sean Tucker
Cleveland Browns at Pittsburgh Steelers
This game total (43.5 over/under) makes little sense. Since Jameis Winston took over as the starter, Browns games are averaging 51 combined points scored. The Steelers have been more efficient since Russell Wilson took over, too. Pittsburgh has scored points on 47% of their possessions since Week 7, which is fifth-best in this span.
Must Start
George Pickens – The QB change from Fields to Wilson has greatly benefitted Pickens. Through six games with Wilson under center, Pickens has emerged with 29/487/3 receiving (16.0 PPR FPG – WR12). Pickens’ 34.5% first-read target share with Wilson under center ranks WR6, just a hair behind Drake London (34.6% FR share).
Jerry Jeudy – Just had the best revenge game in history, obliterating the Broncos for 9/235/1 receiving. Since the Browns made Winston the starter in Week 8, Jeudy (9.6) trails only Malik Nabers (10.8), CeeDee Lamb (10.8), Tee Higgins (11.0), and Ja’Marr Chase (12.0) in targets per game. The volume is insanely good. The results are even better. Jeudy has exploded as a legitimate WR1 in fantasy, trailing only the Bengals wideouts in fantasy points per game since Week 8. Jeudy is crushing single-high safety coverage to the tune of 3.33 yards per route run with Winston, which is sixth-best among all receivers.
David Njoku – In five games with Winston under center, Njoku has piled up 29/232/3 receiving (14.8 PPR FPG – TE3). He’s left plenty of production on the field, too. He has five drops. Winston is delivering Njoku with 7.4 catchable targets per game (second-most among TE), which is up from 3.7 per game (TE16) with Watson.
Start ‘Em
Jameis Winston – Since taking over as the starter in Week 8, the only quarterbacks that are averaging more fantasy points per game than Winston (23.1) are Joe Burrow (25.8), Jalen Hurts (24.7), Lamar Jackson (24.1), and Josh Allen (23.5). The Browns have shifted pass-heavy out of necessity, and Winston’s insane volume (43.6 pass attempts per game) is fueling a carnival where everyone scores – Winston, his receivers, and the opposing D/ST. The Steelers play single-high safety coverage predominantly and they don’t deviate. In fact, Pittsburgh has deployed one-high coverages on 62% or more of their opponents' dropbacks in every single game. The Steelers played 1-hi on 72% of the Browns dropbacks in the Week 12 snow globe. Interestingly, the majority of Winston’s mistakes have come against two-high safety shell coverages with the middle of the field open (4 INT, 7.6% turnover-worthy throw rate). He’s averaging 0.49 fantasy points per dropback and 8.2 YPA (2.7 TWT%) vs. one-high coverages compared to 0.42 FP/DB and 7.3 YPA against two-high looks.
Najee Harris – Touchdowns remain in short supply for Harris, but he’s quietly RB10 in yards from scrimmage per game (97.7) over the last eight weeks.
FLEX Plays
Elijah Moore – In five starts with Winston, we’ve seen Moore become way more involved down the field (11.8 average depth of target) and he’s produced – 28 receptions for 311 yards and a TD (13.0 PPR FPG). By comparison, Moore’s aDOT with Watson was a pitiful 4.8 yards. He’s earned at least 17% of the Browns’ targets in five straight outings. Especially since Cedric Tillman (concussion) can’t play again, then Moore is back in play as a strong WR3.
Jaylen Warren – Only took 3 handoffs last week, but it was the sixth straight game where Warren has recorded at least 59 scrimmage yards. He’s always in play as a lower end FLEX.
Stream ‘Em
Russell Wilson – Over his six starts, Wilson is averaging 18.1 fantasy points per game (QB11) while his 271 passing yards per game are third-most. The Browns have a good pass rush thanks to Myles Garrett, but their secondary is susceptible (7.9 YPA allowed – second-most). The Browns allow 0.43 passing FP per dropback, which is tied with the Falcons for seventh-most.
Pat Freiermuth – With six teams out on a bye, this is a predictably weak TE slate. Freiermuth has shown signs of life with 10/127/1 receiving (on 11 targets) in his last two games. In fact, he led the Steelers in targets (18% share) for the first time all season last week. Cleveland allows a league-high 2.30 yards per route run to slot receivers, which is where Freiermuth aligns on 58% of his routes.
Sit ‘Em
Cedric Tillman – After he couldn’t suit up in Week 13, Tillman is out again for Week 14 (concussion).
Nick Chubb and Jerome Ford – The Browns cut Chubb’s snaps way back last week, he was down to 33%. This backfield is a compartmentalized split, at best. Ford ran 38 routes to Chubb’s nine, and both RBs took 9 handoffs in Week 13. Gross.
Calvin Austin – Sustained a concussion last week.
Carolina Panthers at Philadelphia Eagles
Must Start
Saquon Barkley – The Eagles are -12.5 home favorites against the Panthers defense that’s allowing a league-high 171.2 scrimmage yards per game. Saquon might go for 250.
Jalen Hurts – Philadelphia is the most run-heavy team in the league with a -10% pass rate under expectation since their bye week, and that has nuked Hurts’ passing volume. Over his last eight games, Hurts is averaging just 21.5 pass attempts per start. He has 10 rushing TDs in this span because the Tush Push remains undefeated, but looking for passing upside here is hard. The Eagles can lean heavily on the run again here.
Start ‘Em
A.J. Brown – Even though the Eagles don’t pass the ball often, Brown is making the most of his limited opportunities by leading all receivers in yards per route run (3.70) since Week 6. The problem? Brown is 32nd among receivers in this span in targets per game (6.5). Let this be a reminder of why volume is everything in fantasy football, and it’s why I focus so much of my time chasing it. Since Week 6, Brown is WR13 in FPG (15.6), and that’s nearly one full point behind WR12 Jakobi Meyers (16.5).
FLEX Plays
Chuba Hubbard – In two games with Jonathon Brooks, the veteran has played on 84% of the snaps, compared to just 15% for the rookie. Hubbard played way more than Brooks last week again, but the rookie turned his 3 targets on 6 routes into 3/23 receiving. Hubbard wasn’t targeted. Without any receiving work, Hubbard is a TD-or-bust RB2. The Eagles are allowing a league-low 0.33 TDs per game to opposing backfields.
Adam Thielen – Once again, Thielen turned back Father Time with 8/99/1 receiving last week. He looks quick after missing seven weeks with a gnarly hamstring injury. Thielen ran 85% of his routes lined up in the slot last week, and he’ll get the “easier” of the matchups as a result here. The Eagles are holding opposing outside receivers to a league-low -7.1 schedule-adjusted FPG below average, but are just middle of the pack against slot options (-0.5 SA FPG allowed).
DeVonta Smith – After missing two games with a hamstring injury, Smith will return in Week 14. He’s off of the injury report. Dallas Goedert (knee) is out. The problem is that the Eagles would be perfectly content to only throw the ball 15-18 times again.
Sit ‘Em
Dallas Goedert – Out with a knee injury.
Bryce Young – He’s really turned things around since the reset. Young is processing the field significantly better. Since Week 8, Young’s average time to throw is down to 2.27 seconds (third-quickest), and his 1.8% turnover-worthy throw rate is a huge improvement. Young’s time to throw (2.6 seconds) and TWT% (6.2) were significantly worse in his first four starts this year. He’s now lightyears faster (2.74 seconds TTT) than his rookie season, too. This is a really tough test. The Eagles are holding opposing quarterbacks to a league-low 6.2 passing yards per attempt.
Xavier Legette and David Moore – The Eagles are a no-fly zone for outside receivers. Moore and Legette line up outside on at least 75% of their routes.
Jonathon Brooks
Ja’Tavion Sanders – Returned to limited practice (neck) on Wednesday.
New York Jets at Miami Dolphins
Must Start
De’Von Achane – The Jets have really fixed their run defense. New York has held strong against three good running teams – Arizona, Indianapolis, and Seattle – to the tune of 3.6 YPC with zero explosive runs of 15+ yards allowed. Even if he’s held in check again on the ground, it won’t matter. Achane is essentially a WR2 in PPR leagues. In seven games with Tua starting, Achane has tallied up 41/311/5 receiving (14.6 PPR FPG ~WR19). Veteran RB Raheem Mostert is out.
Jonnu Smith – Over the last three weeks, Smith has exploded for 25/301/3 receiving while leading the team with ease in targets (29) over Hill (22), Achane (17), and Waddle (16). The Jets came out of their bye week and played a season-high 60% two-high safety coverage in Week 13. If that persists, it’d be great for Jonnu. The only tight end that’s averaging more fantasy points per route run than Smith (0.62) against two-high coverages is George Kittle (0.80). Smith easily leads the Dolphins in first-read targets (28%) over Hill (20%) when facing 2-hi coverages in Tua’s starts.
Start ‘Em
Braelon Allen – Will get a chance as the starter without Breece Hall (knee). He could be a full-blown bell cow here. Isaiah Davis will mix in, but he has five carries all season. Allen has been nearly as efficient in yards after contact (2.6) and missed tackles forced (0.13) per carry as Hall (2.7 YAC, 0.13 MTF) this season. Miami has played solid run defense as of late, holding opposing run games to just 82.1 yards per game (seventh-fewest) over the last eight weeks. Allen is a great volume-based RB2, but Aaron Rodgers’ recent struggles loom large. We’re projecting 13.9 carries and 3 receptions for Allen.
Tua Tagovailoa – Miami has ditched their dormant run game. HC Mike McDaniels is Team Dink & Dunk. Over the last month, the Dolphins have the third-most pass-heavy offense by pass rate over expectation (+9.6%). Tua has been hyper-efficient with a 76% completion rate, 7.9 YPA, and a 10:1 TD-to-INT ratio in his last four starts. However, this offense has no answers for cracking two-high coverages with deep passes. It’s wild. Tagovailoa is only throwing deep (20+ yards downfield) on 2.4% of his attempts when he gets a 2-hi look. His average depth of throw vs. 2-hi safety looks is 5 yards (40th-of-41 QB). His deep ball rate is down from 10% vs. 2-hi in 2023, and 15% the year prior. Once again, Tagovailoa projects like a lower-end QB1, largely thanks to volume.
Tyreek Hill – In seven full games with Tua at the controls, Hill has turned his 51 targets into 38/490/4 receiving (16.0 PPR FPG – WR12). Jets CB Sauce Gardner (hamstring) is in danger of missing Week 14.
Davante Adams and Garrett Wilson – It has been a nightmare three-game stretch for Wilson. He’s turned his 24 targets into just 14/100 receiving with 0 TD in his last three outings. Since Week 7, Adams has slightly out-targeted Wilson by a slim 54 to 51 margin. In their six games together, Wilson is averaging 13.9 FPG (WR25) while Adams (12.9 FPG – WR34) is a point behind. Miami loves to mix and match coverages, but they predominantly play Cover-3 zone (33%). Against Cover-3 looks, Wilson has dominated first-read targets (41% share) over Adams (26%). The problem is that Rodgers continues to play poorly. Since Week 7, Wilson’s catchable target rate is only 75%. Adams’ is woefully bad (65% catchable targets). Not great. Both of these wideouts remain lower end WR2.
FLEX Plays
Jaylen Waddle – In seven full games with Tua starting, Waddle has earned 35 targets and maintained his usual efficiency with 28/441/2 receiving (12.3 PPR FPG – WR39). His overall volume (5.0 targets per game – WR57) is still a massive disappointment as Jonnu Smith’s involvement continues to rise.
Sit ‘Em
Breece Hall – Nursing a knee injury. Hall’s 61% snap rate in Week 13 marked a season-low. He hadn’t previously dipped below 70% of the snaps in a single game yet to that point. There’s a decent chance that he's played his last down in 2024.
Aaron Rodgers – His best weekly finish in fantasy this season is QB9.
Allen Lazard – Should return off of I.R. this week (chest).
Raheem Mostert – Out due to a hip injury.
Tyler Conklin
Stash ‘Em
Jaylen Wright
Isaiah Davis
Seattle Seahawks at Arizona Cardinals (4:05p ET)
Both of these defenses have improved significantly as of late. Over the last five weeks, Seattle has allowed a FG or a TD on just 25.6% of their opponents possessions. Only Philadelphia (25%) is better. Arizona is incredibly stingy. No defense has given up fewer TD drives (7.5%) since Week 9.
Must Start
Trey McBride – Even though he still hasn’t scored a receiving TD yet this season, McBride is TE3 by FPG (14.3). He bludgeoned the Seahawks for 12/133 receiving two weeks ago. McBride has earned at least 25% of the Cardinals targets in 8-of-11 games.
Start ‘Em
Zach Charbonnet – His role might be the best on the slate among running backs. In two games without Ken Walker in Weeks 2-3, Charbonnet was a bell cow to the highest degree. He commanded 76% of the team’s carries and ran a route on 66% of the pass plays. Both of these figures are top-2 at the position. As a result, Charbonnet piled up 40 touches, 176 scrimmage yards, and 3 TDs in his two starts. The Cardinals have played very stingy run defense as of late, allowing just 3.7 YPC over the last five weeks.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba and D.K. Metcalf – In their last three games, Seattle has condensed targets around these two. 62% of Geno Smith’s first-read targets have gone to this duo since the bye week. Metcalf (23 targets, 15/195 receiving) has earned two more targets but JSN (20/261/1 receiving) has been far more efficient. Metcalf hasn’t been as explosive since he suffered a midseason knee injury back in Week 7.
James Conner – Seattle completely shut out Conner on the ground for eight yards on 7 carries in their Week 12 meeting. Arizona are small -2.5 favorites here. Conner has quietly lost work as of late. Over the Cardinals' last four games, Conner has handled just 49% of the team’s carries. That’s down from 59% in their first eight games.
FLEX Plays
Marvin Harrison – It has been a forgettable rookie season for Harrison. Through 12 games, he’s merely the WR40 in FPG (11.9). The Cardinals made an effort to get him the rock last week with 12 targets, and he at least hit paydirt for 5/60/1 receiving. It was just the fourth time all year that Harrison led the team in targets. As always, he’s a WR3/FLEX option, against this improving Seattle secondary.
Sit ‘Em
Kyler Murray – As expected, Murray struggled a bit last week vs. Vikings. For fantasy, Murray has finished outside of the top-16 scorers on a weekly basis in three out of his last 4 games. This is not exactly a great bounce-back spot, so we’ll need him to run. Over the last five weeks, the Seahawks have held opposing passers to 6.3 YPA (third-fewest) and a league-low -5.5% completion rate under expectation.
Geno Smith – Over his last three games, Geno has finished as the QB19, QB20, and QB27 in weekly scoring. He’s thrown for multiple passing TDs just twice across 12 games this season. Seattle has been far more balanced in their last three outings since the bye, ranking 19th in pass rate over expectation in this span.
Ken Walker – Out with a calf injury. It has been a really rough five-game stretch for Walker on the ground (80/239/1 rushing), and he was vultured at the goal-line last week on the Seahawks' game-winning drive. However, this role for Walker remains amazing. He’s just running so cold. Since Week 8, Walker’s role is worth 16.0 expected PPR FPG (RB13), but he’s only actually scored just 11.2 FPG (RB30).
Tyler Lockett
Noah Fant
Michael Wilson
Stash ‘Em
Trey Benson
Buffalo Bills at Los Angeles Rams (4:25p ET)
Must Start
Josh Allen
Puka Nacua – In his five full games this season, Nacua has piled up 37/500/2 receiving (20.0 FPG – WR2). Nacua left Week 1 early (knee) and was ejected in Week 9 for throwing a punch. Nacua (41%) has overtaken Cooper Kupp (30%) by first-read target share in these five games together. This is a relatively easier matchup for Kupp, but Nacua is playing so well. He easily leads all receivers in targets per route run (0.35) over Malik Nabers (0.32).
James Cook – In the Bills' first game out of the bye week, they had their most run-heavy gameplan of the season with a -11% pass rate under expected. Touchdowns are a helluva drug. Cook has scored 12 touchdowns this season, eight of which have come inside-the-10. As a reminder, he scored just 9 TDs across 33 games in 2022-23. Cook has more than double the amount (18 carries) of red-zone work inside-the-10 than Josh Allen (8 carries). Los Angeles was trampled by Saquon Barkley (26/255/2 rushing) and Alvin Kamara (23/112 rushing) in their last two games.
Start ‘Em
Cooper Kupp – As we’ve been saying for weeks, Kupp is clearly the second fiddle here, and it really showed in New Orleans. The Rams only passed the ball 24 times last week, and Kupp (3/17 receiving) was left short. The good news is that the Rams' passing volume will return here. Los Angeles are +4.5 underdogs. Stafford is averaging 38.7 pass attempts per game in losses, but that dips to 29.6 in wins. The Bills funnel production to the short, middle areas of the field because they play so much two-high safety coverage (56% | fourth-most) to keep everything in front of them. As a result, they’re allowing a league-low 68.8 yards per game to outside receivers. They’re much more giving to slot receivers (83.7 YPG allowed – eighth-most). Nacua lines up outside on 73% of his routes while Kupp is in the slot 64% of the time.
Kyren Williams – Last week was the first time all season that Williams’ snap rate dipped below 79% in a single game. Williams had a great day on the ground vs. the Saints (15/104/1 rushing), but Blake Corum mixed in for a season-high 8/42 rushing. Williams is completely uninvolved in the Rams passing game. Despite running a route on 47% of the pass plays, Williams has one catch for 9 yards over his last 3 games. Maybe we’ll see that tick back up here? Buffalo allows a league-high 6.0 receptions per game to RBs.
FLEX Plays
Khalil Shakir – Since returning from a midseason ankle injury in Week 7, Shakir easily leads the team in targets (8.3 per game) for 40/380/0 receiving (13.0 PPR FPG – WR32). Buffalo is designing their passing offense around Shakir – his 33% first-read target rate over their last 6 games leads the way in a landslide. Kincaid is out again.
Stream ‘Em
Dawson Knox – If you’re desperate for a TE streamer, then I don’t mind chasing Knox again in a spot start. In two games with Kincaid out, Knox is second on the Bills in routes and targets for a 6/96 receiving result. Obviously, Buffalo didn’t need to throw often to wax San Francisco last week. Knox’s route participation (76%) was elite in a much closer Week 11 game vs. Chiefs. This is a nice matchup. The Rams allow the eighth-most yards per game (60.1) to opposing tight ends.
Sit ‘Em
Matthew Stafford – Since Puka Nacua returned in Week 8, Stafford is QB6 in yards per game (265.2), owns a 14:3 TD-to-INT ratio, and he’s averaging 19.7 fantasy points per start (QB12) across his last six games. This is not exactly a spot to get excited about. Buffalo holds opposing passers to the sixth-fewest FP per dropback. In fact, the Bills have allowed more than 19 FP to one QB all year, and Lamar Jackson needed 6/54/1 rushing to get there.
Dalton Kincaid – He’s missed his last two games (Week 11, Week 13) with a knee injury. Kincaid will miss a third straight game here.
Keon Coleman and Amari Cooper – In the Bills first game out of the bye week, Cooper was still extremely limited with a 58% route share. He turned his three targets into 3/13 receiving. The Bills are getting healthier. Coleman (wrist) is nearing a return. We’re going to go right back to the spread out passing offense where no one gets above a 22% target share. This is a great matchup for perimeter receivers, but volume remains a huge concern here. The Rams allow 2.48 yards per route run to outside receivers (second-most). Cooper is a completely boom-or-bust WR4.
Demarcus Robinson
Stash ‘Em
Blake Corum
Ray Davis
Chicago Bears at San Francisco 49ers (4:25p ET)
Must Start
George Kittle
Start ‘Em
Isaac Guerendo – The nightmare continues for the 49ers. After banging his knee hard against the snow-filled turf, CMC suffered a season-ending PCL knee injury on Sunday night in Buffalo. Jordan Mason suffered an apparent ankle injury in the game, too, and he was placed on I.R. on Monday afternoon. His season is likely over. This all sets up Isaac Guerendo for bell cow duties down the stretch run.
DJ Moore – In the Bears' three games since the OC change, Moore has turned a corner with 30 targets for 22/264/2 receiving (21.4 PPR FPG). Moore is getting funneled a ton of designed screens (10 total) around the line of scrimmage in these three games. Moore is questionable with a quad injury.
Keenan Allen – In their last three games, the Bears have consolidated first-read targets around Allen (32% share) and Moore (29%). Allen has turned his 31 targets into 18/200/3 receiving (18.7 PPR FPG). Schematically, this is a better matchup for Allen than it is for Moore. The 49ers are burnable in the slot. San Francisco allows the 12th-most yards per route run (1.92) to slot options, but a league-low 1.43 YPRR to outside receivers.
FLEX Plays
Jauan Jennings – Has 36/455/4 receiving (21.1 FPG) in five starts where he’s played at least 80% of the snaps. The health of Purdy’s right shoulder remains a huge concern.
D’Andre Swift – As expected, the Bears ground game was stuck in the mud last week vs. the Lions. San Francisco has been trucked for 69/356/5 rushing (5.2 YPC) over the last two weeks against Buffalo and Green Bay. Roschon Johnson is in the league’s concussion protocol.
Stream ‘Em
Caleb Williams – Especially if the 49ers don’t have EDGE Nick Bosa (hip) again this week, then I’m into Williams as a pretty strong streamer. Over the last two games without Bosa, the 49ers have pressured opposing quarterbacks on just 16% of their dropbacks (league-low). In their three games since the OC change to Thomas Brown, the Bears have shifted more pass-heavy (+8% pass rate over expectation). They were balanced with Waldron in Weeks 1-10 with a +0.4% PROE. Williams is seeing the field better and not holding the ball as long. His time to throw is 2.4 seconds (10th-fastest) over his last three games.
Sit ‘Em
Deebo Samuel – This year is shaping up just like 2022 for Samuel. He’s dealt with multiple injuries this season (calf, wrist, oblique) and he was sick with pneumonia in Week 7. In his 10 games where he’s finished, Deebo has turned his 60 targets into 38/531/1 receiving while adding just 27/79/1 as a runner (11.0 FPG – WR44).
Brock Purdy – Clearly wasn’t healthy last week (shoulder). The 49ers have completely crumbled due to injuries, and the left side of his line is hurt. LT Trent Williams (ankle) and LG Aaron Banks (concussion) missed Week 13. Chicago is limiting opposing quarterbacks to just 11.8 passing FPG (second-fewest).
Rome Odunze – Still unusable in fantasy. Odunze is scoring 8.6 FPG (WR64) since the OC change.
Cole Kmet
Roschon Johnson
Ricky Pearsall
Los Angeles Chargers at Kansas City Chiefs (SNF)
Must Start
Travis Kelce – Round 2 of Kelce vs. Derwin James will be fun. Kelce (7/89 receiving) got the best of this matchup back in Week 4. Since the team added Nuk Hopkins, Kelce leads the Chiefs in first-read target share handily (32%) over Hopkins (19%).
Start ‘Em
Ladd McConkey – The Chargers are +7% more pass-heavy than expected over their last three games, and the extra pass volume is fueling a late-season breakout for the shifty McConkey. In this span, he’s been targeted 27 times and tallied up 21/323/0 receiving (17.8 PPR FPG). McConkey will try to play through shoulder/knee injuries on Sunday night.
Justin Herbert – After laying an egg last week in a great matchup in Atlanta, this is a much easier bounce back spot than you might think for Herbert. The Chiefs haven’t been playing great on defense as of late, allowing the 10th-most schedule adjusted FPG above average to QBs over the last eight weeks. The Chargers inability to run the ball will force them to the air often.
Patrick Mahomes – When facing two-high safety coverages, Mahomes’ average depth of target sinks to 5.6 yards downfield (37th-of-41 QBs) and he’s barely throwing deep (5.4% | 36th). Why is that important? Well, the Chargers deploy the second-most two-high safety coverage (60%), and they played 2-hi 68% of the time in their previous Week 4 meeting. Mahomes projects as a low-end QB1 like usual, but I’m not expecting a huge ceiling performance. Los Angeles is stingy. They give up just 0.32 passing FP per dropback (second-fewest).
Will Dissly – Herbert threw a would-be TD at Dissly’s feet on his only target last week. It was an ugly goose-egg for Dissly after he came alive for 32/314/1 receiving over his last eight games. I’m going back to him as a lower end TE1 play in this perfect matchup. The Chiefs allow a league-high 78.5 yards and 6.7 receptions per game to tight ends.
FLEX Plays
Isiah Pacheco – Kareem Hunt had a terrible first half where it looked like he was running in mud vs. Raiders, and the Chiefs made the change to Pacheco in the second half. Pacheco out snapped Hunt 41% to 38% with Samaje Perine mixing in on passing downs (22% snaps). We should see his usage continue to ramp up with a good chance at a goal-line TD.
DeAndre Hopkins – Since joining the Chiefs, Hopkins is WR35 by FPG (12.8). Nuk was involved on 64% of the pass plays last week, marking a season-high.
Sit ‘Em
Quentin Johnston – Over the last three weeks, McConkey is absolutely dominating first-read targets with a 39% share. Johnston has turned his last 17 targets into four receptions for 60 yards and a TD. Yikes.
Xavier Worthy – Since the team added Hopkins, he’s earned a target on just 12% of his routes when facing 2-hi coverages.
Gus Edwards, Kimani Vidal, and Hasaan Haskins – The Chiefs are the toughest team to run on in the AFC, allowing just 3.3 YPC (fewest) and 57.5 rushing yards per game (fewest). Over the last eight weeks, they’ve held opposing RBs to an unreal -8.3 schedule adjusted FPG below average. Gus Edwards led this backfield in snaps (52%) followed by Vidal (26%) and Haskins (13%). Haskins fumbled on his only carry last week, so we might just see a two-way split between Edwards and Vidal moving forward. JK Dobbins (knee) is out for at least three more games.
Josh Palmer
Noah Gray
JuJu Smith-Schuster
Stash ‘Em
Kareem Hunt
Cincinnati Bengals at Dallas Cowboys (MNF)
Must Start
Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins – In their seven games together, Higgins leads the Bengals in targets (9.3 per game) by a hair over Chase (8.5 T/G). Both of these wideouts have absolutely exploded as fantasy WR1 with Burrow playing at an MVP-level and the Bengals throwing more often than any team (+10% pass rate over expected). In these seven outings, Chase has 42/684/9 receiving (23.6 PPR FPG) while Higgins has piled up 43/558/5 receiving (18.4 PPR FPG). Chase’s output would easily make him the WR1 in fantasy by +3.9 points over Nico Collins (19.7 FPG). Meanwhile, Higgins’ 18.4 PPR FPG makes him WR4. These two will be able to get loose. Dallas is bottom-10 by yards per route run allowed to outside and slot receivers.
Joe Burrow – In seven games with his top two wideouts, Burrow is putting up a league-winning 23.4 FPG. For reference, this makes Burrow the QB2 by a hair over Hurts (22.3 FPG). The Cowboys predominantly play one-high coverage as their base, but they have ramped up their 2-hi shell coverage exponentially in two games vs. Houston (68%) and San Francisco (64%). I can’t imagine that Dallas will want to leave their cornerbacks on islands often. The Cowboys will get smoked if they run a ton of 1-hi. Burrow leads all quarterbacks in fantasy points per dropback vs. single-high safety coverages (0.60 FP/DB) when Higgins is starting.
Chase Brown – Since the Bengals lost Zack Moss (neck) for the season, Brown has put up an unreal 22.1 PPR FPG as the bell cow. The only RB with more PPR points per game since Week 9 is Saquon Barkley (28.5). Over the last eight weeks, Dallas is the sixth-worst run defense in yards per game (126.4 allowed), and they’re allowing a league-high 2.6 yards before contact per carry.
Start ‘Em
CeeDee Lamb – Over the last month with Cooper Rush under center, Lamb has turned his 37 targets into 26/220 receiving with 0 TD. His 12.4 PPR FPG ranks WR38. The Bengals are an easy matchup, but the downfield work for Lamb has completely dried up. His average depth of target (5.9 yards) is sixth-lowest among WRs since Week 10. Lamb’s aDOT was 9.5-yards with Prescott. Cincinnati allows the seventh-most yards per game to opposing outside and slot receivers (193.8).
Rico Dowdle – His snaps have increased (47% > 64% > 71%) in three straight games. Dowdle cashed in 123 scrimmage yards and a TD in an ideal matchup as home-favorites over a bad Giants run defense last week. This is not quite the same situation – the Cowboys are +5.5 underdogs. DT Sheldon Rankins will miss another game (illness), his third straight. The Bengals allowed a solid 4.5 YPC to Chargers and Steelers RBs over the last two weeks. Rankins also missed Weeks 3-5 with an injury, in which the Bengals were crushed for 64/314/4 rushing (4.9 YPC).
Jake Ferguson – Will return after missing two games with a concussion. Across his seven full starts this season, Ferguson has racked up solid volume (7.0 targets per game – TE6). The bad news is that none of those looks have come in the end zone. Ferguson was also TE6 by route participation (75%). We can’t really ask for a better matchup for Ferguson in his return. The Bengals allowed 81 yards per game to TEs over the last five weeks, which is second-most in this span.
Sit ‘Em
Cooper Rush – SuperFlex only.
Jalen Tolbert and Brandin Cooks – In his first game back from a knee injury, Cooks was a part-time player (51% route participation). Cooks earned 7 targets and scored a TD, but he’ll need to run more routes if he’s to re-enter the FLEX conversation.
Andrei Iosivas
Mike Gesicki – Has just 13 receptions for 124 scoreless yards (3.6 FPG) in seven games with Tee Higgins.
KaVontae Turpin
