2024 Week 14 DFS Early Look

Week 13 of the NFL regular season just wrapped up, meaning Week 14 is just around the corner. As my readers likely know, DFS is the best version of fantasy football, and since DraftKings and FanDuel have released their Week 14 prices, it’s time to track down the obvious values and best plays.

Here are the plays that jumped out to me for Week 14 DFS:

Baker Mayfield, QB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (VS. LV)

DraftKings: $6,400 (QB3) | FanDuel: $8,100 (QB4)

Mayfield is the QB2 on this slate by DraftKings FPG (22.0). He’s averaging 98% of Jalen Hurts’ fantasy production at 82% of Jalen Hurts’ DraftKings salary. Mayfield has more games of 25-plus DraftKings points (5) than any main slate-eligible QB, despite playing in three games without his top pass catchers. If Tampa Bay had won a few more games, he might be in the MVP discussion.

Mayfield draws Las Vegas in Week 14, a defense that ranks as the 7th-softest schedule-adjusted matchup for opposing QBs (+1.5 FPG). This is a relatively weak slate regarding overall game environments, so this game is within a point of being the 2nd-highest total game on the main slate (45.0). Mike Evans is healthy again, and that makes Mayfield an exciting tournament option in a favorable matchup.

Saquon Barkley, RB, Philadelphia Eagles (VS. CAR)

DraftKings: $9,000 (RB1) | FanDuel: $10,000 (RB1)

It doesn’t get much easier than Barkley against the Panthers. Barkley averages an absurd 28.6 DraftKings FPG over his last four games. He’s scored over 30.0 DraftKings points five times – no other RB has more than two such games. Barkley is responsible for five of the season's ten highest-scoring RB fantasy performances. And he’s on pace for the 5th-best RB fantasy season since 2020. I could rattle off stats all day, but Barkley’s production is breaking fantasy football right now.

A matchup with the Panthers almost doesn’t seem fair. Carolina is the single-softest schedule-adjusted matchup for opposing RBs (+5.4 FPG), allowing a league-leading 166.8 rushing YPG. Add in a 12.0-point spread in favor of Philadelphia, and it’s a truly perfect setup for Barkley. His per-snap production jumps more than 75% when leading (0.52 FP/snap) compared to trailing (0.30) since 2022. I expect Barkley to be among the highest-owned players of Week 14.

Bijan Robinson, RB, Atlanta Falcons (VS. MIN)

DraftKings: $7,500 (RB5) | FanDuel: $8,900 (RB4)

Robinson is coming off the best usage of his career (29.4 XFP). Since Week 9, he ranks behind only Chase Brown and Alvin Kamara in XFP/G (20.1), and behind only Brown and Saquon Barkley in DraftKings FPG (23.2). Since Tyler Allgeier was stuffed at the goal line on three consecutive carries in Week 10, Robinson has earned 100% of inside the 10 snaps and opportunities (5). A player of Robinson’s talent level earning every high-value touch (5th-highest RB target share this season) should be priced $1,000 higher on DraftKings.

We could counter that by saying Robinson’s Week 14 matchup with Minnesota is among the most difficult for slate-eligible RBs (4th-toughest schedule-adjusted matchup). Still, this game offers the 2nd-highest total on the slate (46.0), and Robinson’s usage and talent profile far exceeds his Week 14 DraftKings price.

Bucky Irving, RB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (VS. LV)

DraftKings: $6,600 (RB12) | FanDuel: $7,700 (RB11)

Irving set new season-highs in backfield carry share (69.4%), rush attempts (25), rushing yards (152), and fantasy points (27.5). Irving has earned a higher route share (42% to 34%) and higher target share (14% to 3%) than Rachaad White over the last two games despite the prevailing narrative around this backfield being that White is the better receiving RB. And he’s earning the goal line work; Irving has recorded 58% of backfield opportunities inside the 10 since Week 12.

And Irving is shaping up as a strong play again despite a dramatic increase in price over the last month. Las Vegas is the 7th-softest schedule-adjusted matchup for opposing RBs this season (+1.8 FPG), and the Buccaneers are favored by 7.0 points. Irving’s fantasy points per snap jump by +13% when leading (0.60) compared to when tied or trailing (0.53).

Isaac Guerendo, RB, San Francisco 49ers (VS. CHI)

DraftKings: $5,400 (RB22) | FanDuel: $5,200 (RB38)

Christian McCaffrey (PCL) is — likely — out for the year, and Jordan Mason (ankle) is on IR. And that leaves Isaac Guerendo to man a backfield collectively averaging 20.7 FPG this season. The best part? Guerendo is currently the only RB on the 49ers active roster. Patrick Taylor will surely be brought up from the practice squad, but Guerendo has been notably more efficient (5.9 YPC to 3.6) and has massively out-touched Taylor as a result (47 to 8).

Getting deeper into the season generally means value drying up across the board. But we don’t have to worry about that in Week 14, as Guerendo will represent one of the best values we’ve seen at any position all year.

Justin Jefferson, WR, Minnesota Vikings (VS. ATL)

DraftKings: $7,800 (WR2) | FanDuel: $9,200 (WR2)

Jefferson has been a fantasy disappointment over the last month (zero games over 17.0 DraftKings points), but Week 14 ushers in an incredible matchup. Atlanta ranks as the single-softest schedule-adjusted matchup for opposing outside WRs (+6.2 FPG) since Week 8. The total (46.0) doesn’t look particularly impressive, but it is tied for the 2nd-highest on the slate. And Jefferson’s price has dropped significantly during his recent period of underperformance. He’s $600 cheaper than his Week 1 price ($8,400) despite ranking behind only Cooper Kupp in DraftKings FPG (17.7) among slate-eligible WRs. It’s always tough to click on underperforming fantasy assets, but this is shaping up as a great buy-low opportunity for Jefferson.

Mike Evans, WR, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (VS. LV)

DraftKings: $7,200 (WR4) | FanDuel: $8,400 (WR5)

Evans has scored over 23.0 DraftKings points in three of his last four fully healthy games. In Week 13, he ranked 7th among all pass catchers in XFP (23.2) and 2nd in raw fantasy points (28.8) – while posting his highest first-read target share (44%) of the season. I don’t expect Evans’ volume to slow down; He needs 479 receiving yards to tie Jerry Rice for the most consecutive 1,000-yard seasons ever (11), and Baker Mayfield acknowledged that’s a feat the team would love to see Evans’ accomplish. Even if we don’t buy that narrative, Evans is locked into his best usage of the season with Chris Godwin out, and that’s something I plan on taking advantage of in DFS tournaments.

Calvin Ridley, WR, Tennessee Titans (VS. JAX)

DraftKings: $5,700 (WR20) | FanDuel: $6,300 (WR24)

Ridley has an incredibly volatile profile, which makes him perfect for DFS tournaments but infuriating everywhere else. His volume is comparatively stable – Ridley has earned at least 6 targets and double-digit expected fantasy points in every game since Week 6. The only problem is he’s catching passes from Will Levis, who has the 6th-lowest catchable throw rate (49%) on deep passes in the NFL.

The erratic nature of Levis adds a ton of volatility to Ridley. But the matchup surely helps – Jacksonville is the 2nd-softest schedule-adjusted matchup for opposing WRs (+6.6 FPG), and they’ve allowed the most deep receiving YPG (77.9) in the NFL. Ridley’s deep production hasn’t been consistent (the theme of this blurb), but he has earned the 4th-most deep targets this season (23). I’m not sure if Levis will be able to hit Ridley deep, but he will have plenty of opportunities against this terrible Jaguars’ pass defense.

Jakobi Meyers, WR, Las Vegas Raiders (@ TB)

DraftKings: $5,600 (WR22) | FanDuel: $6,700 (WR19)

Meyers has simply been incredible since the Davante Adams trade. Since Week 4, Meyers is the WR11 by targets per game (9.1) and the WR9 by first-read target share (33%). He’s one of just two WRs to record more than 85 receiving yards against a stout Broncos defense this year, and he has a significantly easier matchup this week.

Tampa Bay is the 2nd-softest schedule-adjusted matchup for opposing WRs since Week 7 (+7.5 FPG). Over the full season, the Buccaneers have allowed the 3rd-most receiving YPG (277.1) and the 7th-most receiving TDs (21). This is an awful pass defense, and I’d expect Meyers to take advantage and wind up as one of the highest-owned WRs of Week 14.

Jonnu Smith, TE, Miami Dolphins (VS. NYJ)

DraftKings: $5,300 (TE4) | FanDuel: $7,000 (TE4)

We can talk about matchups until the sun goes down, but sometimes DFS is as simple as playing the guy who is earning way better usage than his price implies. And it’s tough to think of a better example of that in Week 14 than Jonnu Smith. Over the last three weeks, Smith ranks 10th in XFP/G (18.6), 2nd in DraftKings FPG (25.4), and 4th in first-read targets (26) among all pass catchers. Despite WR1 usage, he’s priced as the WR27 on the main slate – the same price as Adam Thielen. There isn’t any reason to overthink this; Smith is an outstanding play this week.