Welcome to Week 13 Start ‘Em, Sit ‘Em.
This game-by-game article breaks down every player that is relevant for fantasy football. As always, please use our projections to make your start/sit decisions every week. The analysis in this piece provides color – and a lot of stats – behind the projections.
Unless stated otherwise, all of the data in this article is from Fantasy Points Data and specifically curated from the Data Suite. Our collection team has charted every play from every game over the last three seasons, and we will have fresh, weekly data imported into the tools on Monday after the games.
The Start’ Em, Sit ‘Em key
Must Start — Don’t take them out of your lineup, even if there is a fire.
Start ‘Em — The top-12 at QB and TE; top-20 plays at RB; top-25 at WR.
FLEX Plays — All of the best RB2/WR3 plays.
Stream ‘Em — The best one-week plays for streaming off of the waiver wire.
Sit ‘Em — Don’t play them in your lineups. This could be due to a poor role, matchup, or performance.
Stash ‘Em — Step 1: Hold them on your bench. Step 2: Profit.
Good luck this week!
Chicago Bears at Detroit Lions (Thursday | 12:30p ET)
Must Start
Jahymr Gibbs – The only RB that has finished as a top-24 PPR weekly scorer in every game that they’ve played this season. Chicago allows 4.9 YPC (fourth-most). Running mate David Montgomery is dealing with a shoulder injury.
Amon-Ra St. Brown
Start ‘Em
Jared Goff – Right on the fringe for 1-QB leagues. Goff is QB15 in FPG (16.8). This looks like a potential ceiling spot for the Lions' passing attack. Chicago’s pass defense has been cracked for multiple big plays in back-to-back games against the Packers and Vikings, resulting in 605 yards on just 52 attempts (11.6 YPA) and 3 TDs. Detroit has the best implied team total on the slate at 29.5 points. That’s two full points better than Kansas City (27.5 implied total).
FLEX Plays
David Montgomery – Dealing with a shoulder injury. Montgomery’s projection is dinged a little bit on this short week for the Lions. It’s an especially great slate for fantasy running back plays. Montgomery has been an ATM for touchdowns since joining Detroit. He’s scored 26 TDs in 27 games (including playoffs).
D.J. Moore and Keenan Allen – Over the last two weeks since the OC change to Thomas Brown, the Bears have shifted their attack and made Allen the WR1 by first-read target share (34%) followed by Odunze (26%) and Moore (22%). Allen is coming off a season-best game (9/86/1 receiving) and gets an ideal matchup here against a Lions secondary that funnels production to the middle of the field/slot. Detroit allows a league-high 105 yards per game to slot receivers. A whopping eight of Moore’s 14 targets have been off of screens over the last two weeks as Chicago tries desperately to get the ball in his hands. It gives him a higher floor, but Moore’s average depth of target has slipped to 1.8 yards downfield as a result. Chicago’s +11% pass rate over expectation last week marked a season-high, and they’re now facing a Detroit defense that’s nearly impossible to run on.
Jameson Williams – Through nine games, Williams is WR29 in FPG (13.0) – tied with Ladd McConkey. As always, he’ll need an explosive play to really pay dividends because the overall volume here remains a concern. Williams is averaging 5.3 targets per game, while St. Brown is at 8.1 T/G in their eight games together with LaPorta (3.2 T/G). This is a spot for a long bomb. Chicago is allowing the fifth-highest completion rate over expectation (+13%) on passes of 20+ air yards.
Sit ‘Em
D’Andre Swift – Over the last five weeks, we’ve seen Swift’s role decrease from a season-high 73% snap rate in Week 8 to just 53% last week. Roschon Johnson continues to cut in and play more — he’s played on at least 32% of the snaps in four straight games. This is the worst possible matchup for Swift and the Bears ground game. The Lions held Texans, Jaguars, and Colts RBs to 51/122/1 rushing (2.4 YPC) over the last three weeks.
Sam LaPorta – In their eight games together, St. Brown leads the team in first-read target share (32%) followed by Williams (25%) and then LaPorta (11%). The usage simply hasn’t been there all year. LaPorta’s first-read rate (11%) and expected fantasy points per game (6.3 XFP/G) ranks 27th among tight ends.
Rome Odunze – On a per-game basis, Odunze is the WR80 (7.6) in fantasy points in nine games with Allen/Moore.
Cole Kmet
Caleb Williams – SuperFlex only. Detroit is the best defense in the league by fantasy points per dropback allowed (0.28 FP/DB | fewest).
Stash ‘Em
Roschon Johnson
New York Giants at Dallas Cowboys (Thursday | 4:30p ET)
Start ‘Em
CeeDee Lamb – In three games with Rush under center, Lamb has earned 31 targets but has turned those looks into just 24/181 receiving (14.6 FPG) because his average depth of target has cratered. Lamb’s aDOT is just 5.7 yards downfield with Rush under center, which is well below his mark (9.5 aDOT) with Prescott. Unless the downfield targets return, Lamb remains a volume-based WR2.
Malik Nabers – The Giants are switching quarterbacks again – it’s Drew Lock’s chance. Tommy DeVito is out with an arm injury. Lock’s career YPA (6.7) and sack rate (4.7%) is better than DeVito (6.2 YPA | 16.4% sack) by a decent margin. Cowboys top CB Trevon Diggs (groin) didn’t play last week, and Dallas gave up strong production to both Terry McLaurin (5/102/1 receiving) and Noah Brown (6/71) as a result. Nabers hasn’t finished better than WR23 in weekly scoring in five straight outings, but this looks like an ideal spot to bust the slump. At the very least, Lock will chuck it deep. Lock’s career average depth of throw (8.5 yards) is deeper downfield than Daniel Jones (7.5 aDOT) and DeVito (6.5).
FLEX Plays
Tyrone Tracy – Unfortunately, the rookie made another costly mistake for a second straight game. Tracy fumbled on the Giants first red-zone possession in the 3rd quarter vs. the Buccaneers, and wasn’t seen again until late in the 4th. He got benched. Tracy finished with nine carries for 44 yards and he got a few dump-off passes in garbage time on their final possession. This comes after Tracy cost his team badly in their last game in Week 10 when he lost a fumble and a pass clanged off of his hands and was picked off in their loss to Carolina. These three turnovers on Tracy have thrown a huge wrench into what has been a breakout rookie season to this point. I expect the Giants to continue to give him chances, but he has to be walking on thin ice. He is a boom-or-bust RB2/FLEX.
Rico Dowdle – The RB31 in FPG (11.4), Dowdle gets an ideal matchup as slight home favorites against a leaky Giants run defense that’s allowing a league-high 5.1 YPC. Dowdle is coming off a game where he posted his second-highest snap rate (64%) this season.
Sit ‘Em
Luke Schoonmaker – In three games where Jake Ferguson has missed or left the game early, Schoonmaker has tallied 6/43, 6/56, and 3/55/1 receiving. He’s going to split routes again with Brevyn Spann-Ford like last week – Schoonmaker was involved on 56% of the pass plays while Spann-Ford was on the field 32% of the time. If you’re absolutely desperate for a streamer at TE, then Schoonmaker is in play. The problem is that this is the worst possible spot for tight ends. The Giants are erasing TEs to 35.3 yards per game (third-fewest) and a league-low -4.5 schedule-adjusted FPG below average.
Cooper Rush – Has played significantly better over his last two starts after faceplanting in his debut vs. Eagles. Rush has completed 63% of his throws for 215.3 yards per game, 3 TDs, and 3 turnovers (1 INT, 2 fumbles) in his three starts.
Drew Lock – Stream the Cowboys D/ST.
Wan’Dale Robinson
Darius Slayton
Devin Singletary
Jalen Tolbert
Theo Johnson
Miami Dolphins at Green Bay Packers (Thursday | 8:20p ET)
Must Start
De’Von Achane – Since Tua returned five weeks ago, Achane has tallied up 26/179/4 receiving (13.6 PPR FPG ~WR26). He’s basically a strong WR2 in PPR and the lead back on the Dolphins as one hybrid player. Achane has finished top-8 in scoring among running backs in six out of Tua’s 7 starts.
Josh Jacobs – Quietly, he’s the RB8 in yards from scrimmage per game (102.7). That’s just behind Bijan Robinson (103.8).
Start ‘Em
Jordan Love – Not including the Week 8 game where left early (groin), Love is QB8 in fantasy points per game (19.4) – just behind Brock Purdy (19.5 FPG). Dating back to last season, Love has thrown for 2 or more passing TDs in 15 of his last 19 contests. Miami almost exclusively plays zone coverage (72% frequency). The only quarterbacks who are averaging more yards per pass attempt against zone coverages than Love (8.8) are Lamar Jackson (9.8) and Brock Purdy (9.5).
Jonnu Smith – Over the last five weeks, Smith leads the Dolphins in targets (34) over Hill (32), Achane (28), and Waddle (26). Green Bay allows a solid 57.5 yards per game to tight ends (12th-most) and +2.6 schedule-adjusted FPG above average (seventh-most).
FLEX Plays
Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle – It has been a season to forget for Hill, who is still battling the lingering effects of a wrist injury. In a perfect matchup against the Patriots, Hill had another lowly day with just 5/48 receiving. Of course, we saw Jaylen Waddle come to life out of nowhere for his best game of the season (8/144/1 receiving) with Hill held in check. In six games with Tua Tagovailoa this season, Hill’s usage (21% target share) has been cut significantly in this new Dolphins offense. Jonnu Smith (17% target share) has emerged as a great third option while De’Von Achane (17% TS) leads the Dolphins in designed targets (18). It’s a big change. Hill saw 30 designed targets last season. Hill has just five designed looks in 6 full games with Tua. Both of the Dolphins receivers are WR3/FLEX options. Hill is averaging 67.8 yards per game (WR17) with Tua under center. Waddle is just behind him (64.7 YPG – WR22), while seeing 12 fewer targets than Tyreek. Packers top CB Jaire Alexander (knee) is set to miss another game.
Jayden Reed – With Romeo Doubs (concussion) out, we’ll see the Packers' targets condense a little bit. Their overall volume remains a concern, though. Green Bay has only dropped back to pass 18 and 24 times in their last two games, and their pass rate has been at least -3% below expectation in four straight outings. Reed is second on the Packers in target share (16%) against zone coverages after Doubs (18%).
Sit ‘Em
Christian Watson and Dontayvion Wicks – These two will both run more routes with Doubs out this week, but picking which one to play in fantasy will make you want to pull your hair out. Miami is allowing the sixth-fewest yards per game to opposing outside wide receivers (81.0).
Tua Tagovailoa – Miami has really ramped up its pass rate since Tua returned five weeks ago. In this span, only the Bengals (+13%), Bills (+9%), and Chiefs (+8.5%) are more pass-heavy than the Dolphins (+6% pass rate over expectation). Tua crushed the Raiders and Patriots in two ideal matchups at home over his last two starts, but this is an opposite layout on the road against a Packers pass defense that’s holding opposing QBs to -2.9 schedule-adjusted FPG below average over the last eight weeks (sixth-fewest).
Tucker Kraft – Scored a TD last week, but it was the sixth straight game where Kraft’s target share was 13% or lower.
Romeo Doubs – Out with a concussion.
Raheem Mostert and Jaylen Wright
Las Vegas Raiders at Kansas City Chiefs (Friday | 3:00p ET)
Must Start
Brock Bowers – Putting up a ridiculous 15.2 PPR points per game, which would easily beat Sam LaPorta’s mark (14.1) last season as the most FPG by a rookie TE all-time. No defense is allowing more yards (72.5) or receptions (6.3) per game to tight ends than Kansas City.
Travis Kelce – Over the last six weeks since the Chiefs bye, Kelce has earned 55 targets and turned those looks into 44/341/2 receiving (14.9 PPR FPG). He crushed the Raiders for 10/80/1 receiving back in Week 8.
Start ‘Em
Patrick Mahomes – Since bottoming out against the 49ers back in Week 7 out of their bye, Mahomes has turned his season around with a 72% completion rate, 12:3 TD-to-INT ratio, 256.8 passing yards per game, and 21.4 FPG (QB8) over his last five contests. The Chiefs (+8.5% pass rate over expectation) are the third-most pass-heavy team in this span behind only the Bengals (+13%) and Bills (+9%). Las Vegas allows 0.43 fantasy points per dropback (eighth-most), and they’ve given up at least 18 FP to opposing quarterbacks in six straight games.
Jakobi Meyers – With Gardner Minshew (collarbone) out for the season, the Raiders will turn to Aidan O’Connell under center. O’Connell has started 11 games in his career, in which he averages 215.4 yards per game (6.5 YPA) and has a 12:7 TD-to-INT ratio. I believe that O’Connell should have been the Raiders starter over Minshew. In their five games together without Davante Adams on the team, Brock Bowers leads the Raiders in targets (48) by a slim margin over Meyers (44). With a condensed target share around these two pass catchers, we’ve seen Meyers develop into a high-end WR2 in fantasy with 34/378/1 receiving (16.0 PPR FPG ~WR12). This is a tough matchup because the Chiefs are limiting opposing outside wide receivers to just 77 yards per game (third-fewest), but Meyers’ volume has been so consistent. He’s earned at least 20% of the Raiders targets in six out of his last 7 games.
FLEX Plays
Isiah Pacheco – He’s back! Pacheco will play after missing Weeks 3-12 with a fractured ankle. It’d be foolish to expect him to return to a usual 70% snap rate this week, but Pacheco has been ramping up in practice for three weeks now. We’re projecting him to get 12-16 touches with a good shot at a goal-line TD. Kansas City (27.5 implied total) has the second-best outlook on the slate.
DeAndre Hopkins and Xavier Worthy – The Raiders secondary has been cleaned out by injuries as Jakorian Bennett and Nate Hobbs are both out for a second straight game. Over the last five weeks together, Hopkins is earning a target on 24% of his routes while Worthy is still at 16%. However, the rookie continues to lead the Chiefs WR rotation in routes. Hopkins remains a part-time player. Since Week 8, Worthy has led the team in routes (70% share) followed by Justin Watson (58%), Noah Gray (51%), and Hopkins (51%). Veteran JuJu Smith-Schuster is coming off his second-highest participation rate (49%) of the season to throw another body in here. This is a great spot against a beat up defense, but the lack of targets for Worthy and playing time constraints on Hopkins make both Chiefs wideouts WR3/FLEX options.
Sit ‘Em
Alexander Mattison and Ameer Abdullah – Mattison (ankle) has returned to limited practice while Zamir White (groin) remains out. The Raiders backfield is a full fade this week against a Chiefs defense that only allows 53.4 rushing yards per game to running backs (fewest).
Tre Tucker
Noah Gray
Aidan O’Connell
Stash ‘Em
Kareem Hunt – If Pacheco isn’t fully healthy or misses more time, then Hunt will slide back into lineups as a strong RB2.
Los Angeles Chargers at Atlanta Falcons
Must Start
Bijan Robinson
Start ‘Em
Justin Herbert – Over the last six weeks, the Bengals (+11%), Bills (+10%), and Chiefs (+6%) are the only three offenses that are more pass-heavy than the Chargers (+5% pass rate over expectation). In this span, Herbert has scored 19.2 fantasy points per game (QB10) and his 260.9 yards per game ranks seventh-most. I’m treating him as a borderline Must Start option against this Falcons secondary that’s allowing the fifth-most passing FPG (16.6).
Drake London and Darnell Mooney – In their 10 full games together – Mooney left Week 11 early with an injury – London (82) leads Mooney (74) in total targets while their production is very even. London has turned his looks into 58/649/6 receiving (15.9 FPG) while Mooney has 46/684/5 (14.4 FPG). This duo is just getting fed the football. Against two-high safety coverages, London has 35% of the first-read targets while Mooney is not too far behind at 31%. This means that two-thirds of Cousins’ looks are going to these two. The Chargers play two-high safety coverage on 61% of their opponents dropbacks (second-most). Mooney’s 2.71 yards per route run vs. 2-hi ranks seventh-best.
Ladd McConkey – In their last seven games since the bye week, McConkey is WR19 in fantasy points per game (14.1) with an efficient 34/528/2 receiving (2.43 yards per route run). We’d love to see McConkey get a true WR1 target share – he’s just 34th among receivers in targets per game (6.3) – but he’s been so consistent as of late that it’s hard to turn your nose up. McConkey remains a strong WR2.
Will Dissly – With Hayden Hurst (IR) off of the field, Dissly has turned into a borderline TE1. In four games without Hurst, we’ve seen Dissly’s route involvement shoot up to 65% and he’s second on the team in targets (6.8 per game). That’s just behind McConkey (7.0 T/G). In four games as the starter, Dissly has turned his 27 looks into 21/249/1 receiving (13.0 PPR FPG ~TE5). This is a great spot here. Atlanta deploys zone coverage 75% of the time, and Dissly has been far more efficient when facing zones (2.81 yards per route run) vs. man-to-man coverage (0.57 YPRR).
Sit ‘Em
Kirk Cousins – SuperFlex only.
Quinten Johnston – Just like last week, this is another perfect matchup for Johnston to get loose. Atlanta allows +6.4 schedule adjusted FPG above average to opposing outside wide receivers (fourth-most). I can’t get there, though. Johnston’s first-read target share fell to 11% last week with McConkey (32%) and Josh Palmer (26%) further ahead. Two egregious drops also don’t help his cause.
Gus Edwards and Hasaan Haskins – The Chargers backfield is headed towards some sort of committee with JK Dobbins (knee) sidelined. Edwards will likely get the first crack at early-down carries, but he’s looked washed this season. The rookie Kimani Vidal has been a healthy scratch when Dobbins and Edwards are both healthy. Hasaan Haskins doesn’t have more than 2 carries in a game this season. What a mess. The Chargers are already ramping up their pass rate, and I could see them passing even more with this awful backfield talent.
Kyle Pitts – The Chargers play two-high safety coverage on 61% of their opponents dropbacks (second-most). Pitts has massive splits in terms of his efficiency vs. 2-hi safety looks (1.07 yards per route run | 41st-of-49 TEs) when compared to 1-hi coverages (2.58 YPRR | fourth-best). Los Angeles is holding opposing tight ends to -3.2 schedule adjusted FPG below average (fourth-fewest).
Josh Palmer
Tyler Allgeier
Stash ‘Em
Kimani Vidal
Houston Texans at Jacksonville Jaguars
Must Start
Joe Mixon
Nico Collins – In his last 14 games with C.J. Stroud dating back to last season, Collins has racked up 93 receptions for 1,512 yards and 8 TDs on 127 targets. That’s 20.9 PPR points per game. Jacksonville gives up 126.5 yards per game to opposing outside wide receivers (second-most).
Evan Engram – Over their last six games before their bye week, Engram either had the lead or co-led the Jaguars in targets in every outing. No tight end has earned a higher target share (27%) as Engram has turned his 45 targets into 35/286/1 receiving (11.8 PPR FPG) in this span. This looks like a good spot, purely from a schematic standpoint. Houston has completely ditched playing man coverage. Instead, they’ve deployed zones on at least 84% of their opponents pass plays in three straight games. Engram is averaging 2.25 yards per route run vs. zone coverages, but that dips to 1.48 YPRR when he faces man-to-man.
Start ‘Em
C.J. Stroud – The Jaguars have allowed the opposing quarterback to finish as a top-12 fantasy scorer in 9-of-11 games this season. Jordan Love (injured) and Sam Darnold (3 INT game) are the only two passers that failed. Jacksonville played man coverage on 60% of the Lions dropbacks in their last game, and they got absolutely destroyed by Jared Goff for 412 yards and 4 TDs. The Jaguars have played man coverage on at least 33% of their opponents dropbacks in 8-of-11 games, but one of the few contests where they didn’t was back in Week 4 vs. Houston. They played zones 85% of the time in that game, but it didn’t matter. Stroud ripped them for 345 yards and 2 TDs.
Brian Thomas – Between the Jaguars losing Christian Kirk and Gabe Davis to season-ending injuries and Trevor Lawrence (shoulder) returning, this has been an excellent runout for Thomas to crush in his final six games of his rookie season. The targets concentrating around Engram and Thomas will be great for fantasy. In Weeks 1-9 with Lawrence under center, Thomas was emerging as one of the better WR2 plays in fantasy with 35/595/5 receiving and 14.4 PPR fantasy points per game (WR21). Thomas was averaging 2.52 yards per route run with Lawrence but that dipped to 1.81 with Mac Jones.
FLEX Plays
Tank Dell – Over the last two weeks, Dell (12) is behind Collins (16) in targets and first-read looks. Collins has garnered 27% of the first-reads while Dell is at 20%. Even though Collins is the alpha, this matchup is so good that Dell remains one of the better WR3/FLEX options on the slate.
Sit ‘Em
Travis Etienne and Tank Bigsby – This backfield is headed towards a compartmentalized split. Bigsby returned to full practice this week after he sprained his ankle before the bye. Travis Etienne is also fully healthy for the first time since the beginning of the season after he dealt with shoulder and hamstring injuries. In their last full game together – all the way back in Week 5 – Bigsby led the Jaguars in carries (13) over Etienne (6). However, it was Etienne (15 routes, 7 targets) who took almost all of the passing down work over Bigsby (5 routes, 1 target).
Trevor Lawrence – Has finished as a top-10 scoring QB in fantasy football just seven times in his last 26 games played.
Dalton Schultz – Has not finished better than TE11 in weekly fantasy scoring in a single game this season.
Parker Washington
Tim Jones
John Metchie
Tennessee Titans at Washington Commanders
Must Start
Jayden Daniels – It was great to see Daniels back fully healthy last week after he’s been nursing a ribs/chest injury. Daniels’ average depth of throw was 9.9 yards downfield last week – which was the third-highest it’s been in a game this season – and he looked explosive on the ground again. Daniels rushed for 74 yards last week, which are the most that he’s had in any game since Week 5. After a very easy opening schedule, Tennessee is giving up 19.6 fantasy points per game to QBs over the last six weeks (ninth-most).
Start ‘Em
Calvin Ridley – Since the Titans dealt DeAndre Hopkins to the Chiefs, they’ve just funneled the ball to Ridley. His 29% target share since Week 8 trails only Malik Nabers (32%) in this span. Ridley has turned his strong volume (44 targets) into 29/451/2 receiving (17.1 PPR FPG ~WR9), and his average depth of target has exploded to 16.5 yards downfield with Levis back under center in their last four games. Washington is doing a good job at keeping everything in front of them, though. The Commanders allow just 34.4 deep passing yards per game (sixth-fewest) on throws of 20+ air yards.
Tony Pollard – Change of pace RB Tyjae Spears (concussion) is back this week. It’s a big ding to Pollard’s projection because his snap rate is 62% in games when Tyjae Spears is active. That’s a huge dip from his bell cow role (87% snap rate) that he’s seen when Spears is out. By expected fantasy points per game, Pollard is just a solid RB2 (14.2 XFP/G) in his seven outings with Spears. It’s largely because Spears (18 targets) takes passing down work away from Pollard (26 targets) in their seven games together.
Terry McLaurin – Through 13 games, McLaurin is WR18 in PPR FPG (14.7). He’s finally broken free with Daniels under center, but his volume has been a bit of a concern as of late. McLaurin hasn’t seen more than 18% of the targets in four-straight games. Noah Brown (knee) got injured in practice on Thursday, which could help McLaurin’s volume.
FLEX Plays
Brian Robinson – Austin Ekeler suffered his second known concussion of the season last week, and he’s out. Robinson returned to full practice on Friday (ankle), and he’s full-go for Sunday. Unfortunately, this is a worst-possible matchup for Robinson in a potential bell cow role. The Titans run defense is downright dominant. Over their last four games, Tennessee has allowed just 2.7 YPC.
Stream ‘Em
Zach Ertz – Has earned at least 18% of the Commanders targets in five out of his last 6 games. He’s super boring, but he keeps getting it done on the lower end. This is not a bad looking matchup, either. Tennessee has allowed +2.4 schedule adjusted FPG above average to tight ends (seventh-most) over the last eight weeks.
Sit ‘Em
Will Levis – SuperFlex only.
Noah Brown – Was injured in practice on Thursday (knee).
Austin Ekeler – Out with a concussion.
Nick Westbrook
Tyler Boyd
Chig Okonkwo
Stash ‘Em
Tyjae Spears
Arizona Cardinals at Minnesota Vikings
Must Start
Trey McBride – Even without a receiving TD yet this season, McBride is TE4 in PPR FPG (13.6) with the third-most receiving yards per game (68.5) at the position. This is an unbelievable spot for McBride. No secondary plays more two-high safety coverage than the Vikings (68%). When he faces a 2-hi look, McBride easily leads the Cardinals in targets (27% share) and turns his looks into 2.09 yards per route run.
Justin Jefferson – Last week marked the first time all season where Jefferson didn’t see at least 24% of the targets. That’ll change quickly.
Start ‘Em
Aaron Jones – The Vikings ditched Cam Akers as the change-of-pace RB again, and Jones’ 80% snap rate in Week 12 marked a four-week high. Jones sustained a minor rib injury in Week 10 that may have limited him, but that appears to be over now. Jones is averaging 15.8 PPR points per game across his 10 healthy games that he finished, making him RB15 in fantasy football, just three tenths behind David Montgomery (16.1 FPG). He’s a borderline RB1 for the remainder of the season with a gorgeous closing stretch – vs. Ari, vs. Atl, vs. Chi, at Sea, vs. GB – from Weeks 13-17.
Sam Darnold – After imploding two weeks ago against the Jaguars, Sam Darnold has bounced back and played pretty well with 246 yards and 2 TDs (vs. Titans) and 330 yards and 2 TDs (vs. Bears). Most importantly, Darnold has limited the mistakes with just one turnover in his last two games. He’s a lower end QB1 here. Darnold has finished as a top-8 scoring QB in fantasy football in three out of his last 4 outings.
TJ Hockenson – In his fourth game back from a knee injury last year, Hockenson exploded for 7/114 receiving on nine targets. Vikings secondary TE Josh Oliver (ankle) missed Week 12, which paved the way for Hockenson to run a season-high 76% route share. It’s great to see him back fully healthy. Oliver is likely out again.
FLEX Plays
James Conner – Luckily, Conner has turned his 10 targets into 10/121 receiving in his last two games. It has been tough sledding for this Cardinals run game after he got stonewalled vs. Jets (12/33/1 rushing) in Week 11 and was held to just 8 yards on 7 carries last week vs. Seahawks. This is a really rough spot to expect a big bounceback. Minnesota holds opposing run games to just 62.3 yards per game (third-fewest).
Marvin Harrison – It has been a forgettable rookie season for Harrison. Through 12 games, he’s merely the WR41 in FPG (11.4). No secondary plays more two-high safety coverage than the Vikings (68%). Harrison has been far less efficient when facing two-high looks (1.46 yards per route run) than when he gets single-high safety coverage (2.42 YPRR). As always, he’s on the lower end of the WR3/FLEX radar.
Jordan Addison – Has earned at least 25% of the targets in back-to-back games. Addison benefited greatly from Jefferson seeing a ton of CB Jaylon Johnson and bracket coverage from the Bears last week (8/162/1 receiving). The Cardinals don’t have the CB talent to deploy a similar type of approach here.
Sit ‘Em
Kyler Murray – After the Cardinals flopped so hard in a good spot against a burnable Seahawks secondary last week, this is not a good bounce back spot on the road vs. Vikings. Murray has not been good when he’s been blitzed this season. Kyler is 31st-of-33 QBs in fantasy points per dropback (0.30) when he’s blitzed, but is third-best (0.67 FP/DB) on his non-blitzed dropbacks. Minnesota blitzes second-most often (37.1%). I’m looking to stream for Murray this week.
Michael Wilson
Cam Akers
Stash ‘Em
Trey Benson
Indianapolis Colts at New England Patriots
Start ‘Em
Jonathan Taylor – In his six games with Richardson as the starter, Taylor has minimal passing down involvement (9 targets, 5/72 receiving). Yikes. It’s left him as more of a lower end RB2 that’s forced to rely on touchdowns. Taylor at least has 4 rushing scores in 6 starts with Richardson. The limited work as a receiver has held Taylor to 15.1 expected PPR points per game (RB18).
Anthony Richardson – Welp. Richardson’s roller coaster season continued after he shredded the Jets and looked good on the Colts opening few possessions last week. The same old, inaccurate Richardson came back. He was off-target on 28% of his throws vs. Lions, which is right in line with where he’s been all season. His accuracy isn’t good enough, but this was the second straight game where he’s gotten at least 10 carries. Richardson’s rushing and this matchup is just enough to keep him on the lower end of the QB1 radar after the Patriots have gotten set on fire for 612 yards and 4 TDs vs. Rams and Dolphins in their last two games.
FLEX Plays
Michael Pittman – The Colts have been absolutely cleaned out by injuries at receiver. Josh Downs (shoulder) and Ashton Dulin (ankle) are both out while Alec Pierce is battling a foot injury. This leaves only Pittman and Adonai Mitchell as the Colts top two wideouts this weekend. After dealing with a back injury midseason and missing Week 10, Pittman has received a team-high 23% and 25% of the Colts' targets in back-to-back games. He’s back on the WR3/FLEX radar.
Rhamondre Stevenson – Behind the worst offensive line in football, Stevenson has just 58/176/1 rushing (3.0 YPC) over the last month. His workload has been decent (15.3 XFP/G – RB17), but there is no efficiency to speak of here.
Stream ‘Em
Drake Maye – In his six full starts, Maye is putting up a solid 18.4 fantasy points per game. For reference, that would make him the QB9 overall, tied with Bo Nix. Turnovers (7 INT, 4 fumbles) continue to hold him back and need to be reigned in before he really starts hitting big ceiling weeks. I’m treating Maye as a top streaming option once again. Nothing about this matchup is imposing. The Colts really struggle to generate pressure (26% | 31st), which is huge this week. No offensive line is allowing pressure more often (41% of dropbacks) than the Patriots.
Hunter Henry – In these six starts with Maye, the Patriots TE leads Demario Douglas by a slim margin in targets (6.3 per game to 6.0) and PPR points (11.2 FPG to 10.9). Henry is back on the board as a lower end TE1 streamer in this ideal matchup. The Colts allow +3.5 schedule adjusted FPG above average (third-most) to tight ends.
Sit ‘Em
Demario Douglas – Hasn’t finished higher than WR31 in PPR fantasy scoring in six straight games.
Adonai Mitchell – If Alec Pierce is out, then we’ll see Mitchell in a full-time role. With Josh Downs sidelined, Mitchell will primarily work out of the slot. When Downs was out in Weeks 1-2, Mitchell was involved on 69% of the pass plays. He turned his 9 targets into 2/32 receiving.
Kendrick Bourne – Has 6, 5, and 5 targets in his last three games.
Kayshon Boutte – Continues to lead the Patriots receivers in routes, but he is barely earning targets.
Antonio Gibson
Pittsburgh Steelers at Cincinnati Bengals
Must Start
Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins – In their six games together, Higgins leads the Bengals in targets (9.3 per game) by a hair over Chase (8.2 T/G). Both of these wideouts have absolutely exploded as fantasy WR1 with Burrow playing at an MVP-level and the Bengals throwing more often than any team (+10% pass rate over expected). In these 6 outings, Chase has 36/598/8 receiving (24.2 PPR FPG) while Higgins has piled up 38/489/4 receiving (18.5 PPR FPG). Chase’s output would easily make him the WR1 in fantasy by +4 points over Cooper Kupp (20.1 FPG). Meanwhile, Higgins’ 18.5 PPR FPG makes him WR5. Steelers CB Joey Porter is awesome, but he’s only one man. The Steelers actually allow 108.1 yards per game to outside receivers (12th-most).
Chase Brown – Since the Bengals lost Zack Moss (neck) for the season, Brown has put up an unreal 23.1 PPR FPG as the bell cow. In these three games, Brown has taken 85% of the snaps (RB3) and his 27.2 expected PPR FPG is the best role in fantasy football, by far. He’s a league-winner. The Steelers allow 4.9 YPC (third-most) and 55% success rate (second-highest) on zone blocking runs. 60% of Brown’s runs are off zone-blocking concepts.
George Pickens – The QB change from Fields to Wilson has greatly benefitted Pickens. Through five games with Wilson under center, Pickens has emerged with 26/413/2 receiving (15.9 PPR FPG – WR12). Pickens’ 38% first-read target share with Wilson under center would trail only Nabers (43%) this season. The Bengals are terrible at cornerback – Cam Taylor Britt has already allowed over 1,000 yards in his coverage. Cincinnati allows 116.5 yards per game to opposing outside receivers (sixth-most).
Joe Burrow – In six games with Higgins and Chase on the field, Burrow is averaging a league-best 282.2 passing yards per game with a stellar 15:2 TD-to-INT ratio. The only quarterback that is putting up more FPG than Burrow (23.5) when he has his duo of receivers is Lamar Jackson (25.3). Yes, this is a tough matchup. Pittsburgh only allows 11.5 passing FPG (fourth-fewest). He’s still Must Start.
FLEX Plays
Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren – Over their last five games together, Harris leads the backfield in carries (95/373/2 rushing) over Warren (55/242/1 rushing). However, it’s Warren who continues to play more in the passing game (42% route share, 16 targets) over Harris (27% route share, 11 targets). Of course, Harris (6) has the lead in goal-line carries (2) over Warren inside-the-5. Both of these RBs are on the board as FLEX options as road underdogs (+3 spread).
Sit ‘Em
Russell Wilson – SuperFlex only. These are Wilson’s weekly finishes in fantasy football in his five starts: QB3, QB19, QB9, QB26, and QB15. This is a pretty good spot if you’re absolutely desperate for a streamer in 1-QB leagues. Cincinnati allows 15.9 passing FPG (seventh-most).
Mike Gesicki
Pat Freiermuth
Calvin Austin
Andrei Iosivas
Jermaine Burton
Seattle Seahawks at New York Jets
Must Start
Jaxon Smith-Njigba – Over the last five weeks, the only wide receiver that has scored more PPR points per game than JSN (22.9) is Ja’Marr Chase (28.4). Smith-Njigba has emerged with 32% of the first-read targets in his last two games, which is tied with Metcalf for the team lead. His role has remained consistently great – JSN has earned at least 21% of the targets in five straight games. Colts slot wideout Josh Downs hit the Jets for 5/84/1 receiving in Week 11.
Start ‘Em
Ken Walker – As expected, Walker has resumed his bell cow role with a 71% snap rate and 63% of the RB carries over his last two games. Most importantly, Walker is running a route on 59% of the pass plays, while Zach Charbonnet is involved just 27% of the time. Only Kamara (6.5), Hall (5.4), CMC (5.3), Achane (5.2), and Bijan Robinson (4.5) are averaging more targets per game than Walker (4.4). Before their bye week, the Jets fixed their run defense in their last two games against great rushing offenses with just 52/184/1 rushing (3.6 YPC allowed) vs. Cardinals and Colts.
Breece Hall – Dealing with a sore knee out of the bye week. Even though the Jets offense has been a massive disappointment, Hall has piled up enough volume to remain the RB12 by FPG (16.8). Seattle allows 146 scrimmage yards per game to RBs (seventh-most).
Garrett Wilson and Davante Adams – In their five games together, Adams (32 targets) and Wilson (31) have combined to see 51% of Aaron Rodgers’ total targets. This offense is so condensed, but both have been relegated to WR2 options. Adams has put up 26/278/1 receiving (12.0 PPR FPG) while Wilson has been better with 28/323/2 (14.9 PPR FPG). This is a solid spot out of their bye. Over the last eight weeks, Seattle has given up +4.7 schedule adjusted FPG above average to wide receivers (sixth-most).
D.K. Metcalf – Dealing with a shoulder injury. Metcalf is WR19 in FPG (14.6). Over the last two weeks, JSN has earned more targets (17) over Metcalf (14) and Lockett (6). Metcalf has a much harder matchup than JSN this week, all things considered. The Jets hold opposing outside receivers to -4.1 schedule adjusted FPG (fourth-fewest), but are middle of the pack against slot receivers (-1.0 SA FPG allowed).
Sit ‘Em
Geno Smith
Aaron Rodgers – SuperFlex only. Rodgers’ best weekly finish in fantasy this season is QB9.
Tyler Lockett – Nursing a knee injury.
Noah Fant – Will return after missing Weeks 9-12 (three games) with a groin injury.
Tyler Conklin
Jake Bobo
Stash ‘Em
Braelon Allen
Zach Charbonnet
Los Angeles Rams at New Orleans Saints (4:05p ET)
Must Start
Alvin Kamara – In eight starts with Derek Carr under center, Kamara is putting up 126.9 scrimmage yards per game and he’s scored 6 TDs. For reference, this would make Kamara the RB2 in YFS/G behind Saquon Barkley (149.9).
Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp – Nacua has dropped four absolute hammers of 7/106 receiving (vs. Vikings), 9/98 receiving (vs. Dolphins), 7/123/1 receiving (vs. Patriots), and 9/117 (vs. Eagles) in the four games that he’s finished. Nacua left Week 1 early (knee) and was ejected in Week 9 for throwing a punch. Nacua (40%) has overtaken Cooper Kupp (30%) by first-read target share in these four games together. Nacua has a shot to push Chase as the WR1 for the rest of the way. He’s averaging 20.7 PPR FPG while Kupp (19.9) isn’t too far behind. This is an amazing spot for Kupp. The Saints allow the third-most yards per game to slot receivers (93.8) and the fifth-most schedule adjusted FPG.
Kyren Williams – Even when he fumbles, HC Sean McVay refuses to take his guy off of the field. Williams has played at least 79% of the Rams snaps in every gam
Start ‘Em
Taysom Hill – Coming off of the most unique games in fantasy football history. In Week 11, Hill had 7/138/3 rushing in addition to leading the team with 10 targets (8/50 receiving). He also threw two passes (one was picked). Lol. Since returning from a midseason ribs/chest injury, Hill’s route participation has increased from 39% in Week 8 up to 59% and 57% in his last two outings before the bye. There are only five tight ends that I’d rather have than Hill for the rest of the season – Bowers, Kittle, Kelce, McBride, and Engram. The Rams allow the ninth-most receiving yards per game (58.4) to tight ends and the fourth-most rushing yards per game (116.8).
Matthew Stafford – In four games with Kupp and Nacua for the entire contest, Stafford is completing a nice 69% of his throws for 277.5 passing yards per game, he owns a 10:2 TD-to-INT ratio, and is averaging 20.9 fantasy points per game (QB5). This is a potential home run spot for the Rams passing attack. New Orleans allows 270.9 passing YPG (fourth-most).
Stream ‘Em
Marquez Valdes-Scantling – Ok, yeah. All of his fantasy points have come off of long bomb TDs. MVS has turned his seven targets into 5/192/3 receiving. That’s not repeatable. However, the Saints have nothing at receiver with Chris Olave (concussion) on I.R. for at least two more games. Valdes-Scantling was in route on a season-high 77% of the pass plays in their last game in Week 11, and that easily led this WR group. Kevin Austin (47%) was the WR2 in route share because the Saints have made 2-TE sets and Taysom Hill a focal point of their passing attack out of necessity. If you’re desperate for a WR3, this is a great matchup. The Rams allow 114.5 yards per game to opposing outside wide receivers (seventh-most) and a +14% completion rate over expectation on deep balls of 20+ air yards.
Sit ‘Em
Derek Carr – SuperFlex only.
Demarcus Robinson
Juwan Johnson
Tutu Atwell
Stash ‘Em
Blake Corum
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Carolina Panthers (4:05p ET)
Must Start
Chuba Hubbard – In his first game with the rookie Jonathon Brooks, we saw Hubbard get 88% of the snaps. It was the sixth straight game where Hubbard has played at least 75% of the time. Tampa Bay allows 4.7 YPC (eighth-most). Bryce Young progressing down the stretch run would obviously be huge for Hubbard’s fantasy stock.
Baker Mayfield – Has finished as a top-8 scoring QB in fantasy football in 7-of-8 games with Mike Evans. Wow. Absolutely nothing about this matchup is concerning. If the Panthers manage to keep this game close again, then Mayfield has a ceiling of 25+ FP here. Carolina is giving up 0.48 passing fantasy points per dropback (second-most).
Start ‘Em
Mike Evans – As expected, Evans was a little bit limited in his first game back from his hamstring injury. Evans ran a route on 56% of the pass plays last week, but earned six targets on just 18 routes (5/68 receiving). We should see him return to his full-time route share in the 85% range this week. The Panthers are giving up 111.8 yards per game to opposing outside receivers (eighth-most).
Bucky Irving – For the first time all year, Irving (55%) played more snaps than White (47%) in Week 12. Irving was terrific as usual on the ground (12/88/1 rushing), but he earned a season-high six targets and was explosive (6/64 receiving) as a receiver. He’ll always need someone to split carries with him, but Irving getting extended passing down work over White out of their bye week is a big change. The Panthers are getting trucked for 162.8 scrimmage yards per game (most) by opposing backfields.
Cade Otton – Don’t panic yet. It was a worst-possible matchup for Otton last week, as we discussed. He still led the team in routes in the blow out. The Giants erase tight ends (33.2 yards per game – second-fewest). The Panthers are a sieve. Carolina allows 66.9 yards per game to tight ends (second-most).
FLEX Plays
Rachaad White
Sit ‘Em
Xavier Legette, Adam Thielen, and David Moore – One of these three receivers will have a good game against the Buccaneers. I just have no clue who it will be. Jalen Coker (quad) is out again. Legette led the Panthers in routes (90% share) followed by Moore (88%) and then Thielen (70%). Moore had a bit of a breakout game after being a full-time player for the last month, turning his team-high 10 targets into 6/81/1 receiving last week. I think we’ll see Thielen involved more. No secondary is allowing more schedule adjusted FPG above average (+9.1) to wide receivers over the last eight weeks than the Buccaneers.
Bryce Young – SuperFlex only. Coming off of the best game of his season (260 yards, 7.5 YPA vs. Chiefs), this is a great spot for Young to continue his improvement. Tampa Bay gives up the third-most passing FPG (17.7).
Jonathon Brooks
Jalen McMillan
Sterling Shepard
Philadelphia Eagles at Baltimore Ravens (4:25p ET)
Must Start
Saquon Barkley
Derrick Henry
Jalen Hurts
Lamar Jackson
A.J. Brown – In their seven games together, Brown has out-targeted Smith by a 48 to 35 margin. Brown has tallied up 33/618/3 receiving (16.1 PPR FPG) while Smith has 27/361/3 (11.6 PPR FPG) in the secondary role. This is a ceiling week for Brown in the making. No defense is allowing more yards per game to opposing outside wide receivers (128) than the Ravens.
Start ‘Em
Zay Flowers – This looks like a really tough matchup for Flowers. And, it is. Quinyon Mitchell is balling out, and it’s why the Eagles are holding opposing outside wide receivers to -6.1 schedule adjusted FPG below average. That’s a league-low. However, the Ravens use Flowers in such a creative way that he can shake free from Mitchell’s coverage in the slot. Over the last four games, the Eagles have deployed one-high safety coverage on at least 63% of their opponents pass plays in each game. Flowers is absolutely crushing single-high looks for 3.18 yards per route run (WR6).
Sit ‘Em
DeVonta Smith – Likely out or limited with a hamstring injury.
Mark Andrews and Isiah Likely – In their last 10 games together, this duo has split routes and targets nearly evenly. Andrews holds the slight leads in routes (53% participation) over Likely (49%) and he’s seen more targets (35) than Likely (26). In this span, Andrews is averaging 9.3 PPR FPG (TE16) while Likely is at 5.4 FPG (TE40). This is a really tough matchup. The Eagles are holding opposing tight ends to -3.6 schedule adjusted FPG below average (third-fewest) and 36.9 yards per game (fifth-fewest).
Rashod Bateman
Justice Hill
San Francisco 49ers at Buffalo Bills (SNF)
It’ll be really cold on Sunday night, but the forecast for the game itself doesn’t look bad with light snow and wind (10mph). The game total has ticked down a few points (44.5 over/under), but that’s more due to the 49ers health on offense.
Must Start
Josh Allen – The 49ers will be without DE Nick Bosa (hip) again this week. When they didn’t have Bosa in Week 11, the 49ers only generated pressure on 20% of the Packers pass plays. Allen is going to have plenty of time to do what he wants.
George Kittle – Even with Brandon Allen under center, Kittle was inevitable. He still dropped a 6/82/1 receiving hammer last week. Kittle is the TE1 by fantasy points per game (17.9) by nearly 1.5 FP over Brock Bowers.
Start ‘Em
Christian McCaffrey – This has not been the redemption tour that you were hoping for with CMC. Through two games with Purdy under center, McCaffrey has piled up 107 and 106 scrimmage yards, but he does not have a TD. The role has been strong. Kyren Williams and CMC lead all RBs in snap rate (88%). However, I don’t think McCaffrey has looked particularly close to his usual self, and he’ll be without his top two blockers on the left side of their line on Sunday night. LT Trent Williams (ankle) is out again along with LG Aaron Banks.
James Cook – Touchdowns are a helluva drug. Cook is averaging significantly fewer scrimmage yards per game this season (77.8 YFS/G) compared to last year (92.2), but his dip in efficiency has not mattered. Cook has scored 11 touchdowns this season, eight of which have come inside-the-10. Cook has more than double the amount (16 carries) of red-zone work inside-the-10 than Allen (7 carries). San Francisco just gave up a season-high 158 rushing yards last week.
Khalil Shakir – Since returning from a midseason ankle injury in Week 7, Shakir easily leads the team in targets (8.6 per game) for 36/350/0 receiving (14.2 PPR FPG). Buffalo is designing their passing offense around Shakir – his 31% first-read target rate over their last 5 games leads the way. Dalton Kincaid (knee) is out again.
Jauan Jennings – At the very least, Purdy is back. I have no idea how healthy that Purdy actually is, but Jennings is back in lineups as a strong WR2. Buffalo plays the fourth-most two-high safety coverage (56%). Jennings is crushing against those coverage shells to the tune of 3.15 yards per route run. Jennings’ YPRR is 2.18 vs. one-high coverages, a difference of +44% vs. 2-hi. Jennings has piled up 33/399/4 receiving (24.3 FPG) in four starts where he’s played at least 80% of the snaps.
FLEX Plays
Amari Cooper – In his three games as a Bill, we have yet to see Cooper play anywhere close to a full-time role. Cooper ran a route on 34% of the pass snaps in Week 7, he went up to 62% of their pass plays in Week 8, and then he injured his wrist. Cooper was involved on just 49% of the routes in Week 11 before the bye. The thing is that he’s been good when he’s gotten the ball, turning his 10 targets into 7/124/1 receiving. At worst, Cooper is a high ceiling WR3 here. I think we’ll see him much closer to a full-time role out of the bye week.
Deebo Samuel – This season is shaping up just like 2022 for Samuel. He’s dealt with multiple injuries this season (calf, wrist, oblique) and he was sick with pneumonia in Week 7. In his eight games where he’s finished, Deebo has turned his 45 targets into 26/401/1 receiving while adding just 27/79/1 as a runner (10.9 FPG).
Sit ‘Em
Brock Purdy – After missing Week 12 with a shoulder injury, Purdy returned to full practice on Friday. It’s impossible to know if he’s actually healthy or if the 49ers are just trying to keep their season alive. Regardless, this is a brutal spot. LT Trent Williams (ankle) is out along with G Aaron Banks. Buffalo has allowed more than 19 FP to one QB all year, and Lamar Jackson needed 6/54/1 rushing to get there.
Dawson Knox – The Bills won’t have Dalton Kincaid (knee) again this week. In Week 11 without Kincaid on the field, Knox co-led the Bills in routes (76% share) and earned six targets (4/40 receiving). If you’re absolutely desperate for a TE streamer, Knox is on the board. At least we know that he’ll be heavily involved and has a chance at a TD from Allen. The problem is this matchup. 49ers LB Fred Warner is the best coverage linebacker against tight ends, and San Francisco is erasing TEs to just 34.9 yards per game (second-fewest).
Keon Coleman – Nursing a wrist injury.
Ricky Pearsall
Curtis Samuel
Stash ‘Em
Jordan Mason
Ray Davis
Cleveland Browns at Denver Broncos (MNF)
Must Start
Courtland Sutton – Since his random Week 7 goose egg vs. New Orleans, when he didn’t get a single target, Sutton has exploded over the last five weeks for 36/467/3 receiving (21.0 PPR FPG). He has earned at least 8 targets in every game in this span, and easily leads the Broncos in first-read looks with a monster 32% share ahead of Devaughn Vele (17%). This is an awesome schematic matchup for Sutton. The Browns play 65% single-high safety coverage – either Cover-1 (man) or Cover-3 (zone). Against these 1-hi looks, Sutton is averaging a stellar 2.67 yards per route run. However, his efficiency has fallen off of a cliff against two-high safety shell coverages (1.19 YPRR). That’s a difference of +124%.
Start ‘Em
Bo Nix – Since Week 5, the only quarterbacks that are averaging more fantasy points per game than Nix (21.5) are Baker Mayfield (21.7), Jalen Hurts (25.0), Joe Burrow (25.2), and Lamar Jackson (26.1). The Browns defense has regressed severely year over year. Cleveland is allowing the fourth-most YPA (7.9). This is a perfect matchup for Sutton, which makes me more bullish on Nix. The only reason Nix is not Must Start like last week is because this slate is loaded with great QB plays.
Jerry Jeudy – He’s good at football! Jeudy only needed five years and Jameis Winston to help him break out. Over the last four weeks, Jeudy is averaging 16.9 PPR FPG (WR11) while seeing 9.0 targets per game (WR9). The volume should be good this week without Cedric Tillman (concussion). Jeudy is going to see a ton of Pat Surtain in this revenge game, but the Browns use him creatively enough that we’ll see him shake free in the slot a bit. Jeudy lines up in the slot on 35% of his routes.
David Njoku
FLEX Plays
Elijah Moore – Gets a bump up with Tillman (concussion) likely out. Quietly, Moore has 20/200/1 receiving (11.5 PPR FPG) in four starts with Winston. Moore and Jeudy co-lead the Browns in targets (21% share) when Winston is blitzed. Denver blitzes 34% of the time (fourth-most).
Nick Chubb – The Browns have not been a good rushing team all season as Chubb is plodding his way to a career-low 3.0 YPC. He has 73/222/3 rushing across five games since returning. He’s basically not involved in the passing game – Chubb has seven targets (3/7 receiving). He’ll need another TD to pay off as a lower end RB2/FLEX. Denver is playing really good run defense, allowing just 3.8 YPC (fifth-fewest).
Sit ‘Em
Cedric Tillman – In concussion protocol.
Jameis Winston – Across his four full starts, Winston has notched scoring performances of QB7, QB21, QB9, and QB18 in fantasy. He’s locked into SuperFlex lineups, but Winston is not someone I’m looking to put into lineups in 1-QB leagues this week. The Broncos are an awesome defense that’s going to confuse him at the line of scrimmage with their pressure packages. The Lions (0.28 FP/DB) are the only defense that is giving up fewer passing fantasy points per dropback than the Broncos (0.30).
Devaughn Vele – Nix continues to ascend, and it’s helped the rookie wideout break out for 14/185/1 receiving over the last three weeks. The problem is that Vele is still a part-time player as a part of the Broncos WR rotation. He’s yet to run a route on more than 67% of the pass plays in a single-game.
Javonte Williams and Audric Estime
