Welcome to Week 13 Start ‘Em, Sit ‘Em.
This game-by-game article breaks down every player that is relevant for fantasy football. As always, please use our projections to make your start/sit decisions every week. The analysis in this piece provides color – and a lot of stats – behind the projections.
Unless stated otherwise, all of the data in this article is from Fantasy Points Data and specifically curated from the Data Suite. Our collection team has charted every play from every game over the last three seasons, and we will have fresh, weekly data imported into the tools on Monday after the games.
The Start’ Em, Sit ‘Em key
Must Start — Don’t take them out of your lineup, even if there is a fire.
Start ‘Em — The top-12 at QB and TE; top-20 plays at RB; top-25 at WR.
FLEX Plays — All of the best RB2/WR3 plays.
Stream ‘Em — The best one-week plays at QB and TE for streaming off of the waiver wire.
Sit ‘Em — Don’t play them in your lineups. This could be due to a poor role, matchup, or performance.
Stash ‘Em — Step 1: Hold them on your bench. Step 2: Profit.
Good luck this week!
Chicago Bears at Detroit Lions (Thursday | 12:30p ET)
Must Start
Jahymr Gibbs – The only RB that has finished as a top-24 PPR weekly scorer in every game that they’ve played this season. Chicago allows 4.9 YPC (fourth-most). Running mate David Montgomery is dealing with a shoulder injury.
Amon-Ra St. Brown
Start ‘Em
Jared Goff – Right on the fringe for 1-QB leagues. Goff is QB15 in FPG (16.8). This looks like a potential ceiling spot for the Lions' passing attack. Chicago’s pass defense has been cracked for multiple big plays in back-to-back games against the Packers and Vikings, resulting in 605 yards on just 52 attempts (11.6 YPA) and 3 TDs. Detroit has the best implied team total on the slate at 29.5 points. That’s two full points better than Kansas City (27.5 implied total).
FLEX Plays
David Montgomery – Dealing with a shoulder injury. Montgomery’s projection is dinged a little bit on this short week for the Lions. It’s an especially great slate for fantasy running back plays. Montgomery has been an ATM for touchdowns since joining Detroit. He’s scored 26 TDs in 27 games (including playoffs).
D.J. Moore and Keenan Allen – Over the last two weeks since the OC change to Thomas Brown, the Bears have shifted their attack and made Allen the WR1 by first-read target share (34%) followed by Odunze (26%) and Moore (22%). Allen is coming off a season-best game (9/86/1 receiving) and gets an ideal matchup here against a Lions secondary that funnels production to the middle of the field/slot. Detroit allows a league-high 105 yards per game to slot receivers. A whopping eight of Moore’s 14 targets have been off of screens over the last two weeks as Chicago tries desperately to get the ball in his hands. It gives him a higher floor, but Moore’s average depth of target has slipped to 1.8 yards downfield as a result. Chicago’s +11% pass rate over expectation last week marked a season-high, and they’re now facing a Detroit defense that’s nearly impossible to run on.
Jameson Williams – Through nine games, Williams is WR29 in FPG (13.0) – tied with Ladd McConkey. As always, he’ll need an explosive play to really pay dividends because the overall volume here remains a concern. Williams is averaging 5.3 targets per game, while St. Brown is at 8.1 T/G in their eight games together with LaPorta (3.2 T/G). This is a spot for a long bomb. Chicago is allowing the fifth-highest completion rate over expectation (+13%) on passes of 20+ air yards.
Sit ‘Em
D’Andre Swift – Over the last five weeks, we’ve seen Swift’s role decrease from a season-high 73% snap rate in Week 8 to just 53% last week. Roschon Johnson continues to cut in and play more — he’s played on at least 32% of the snaps in four straight games. This is the worst possible matchup for Swift and the Bears ground game. The Lions held Texans, Jaguars, and Colts RBs to 51/122/1 rushing (2.4 YPC) over the last three weeks.
Sam LaPorta – In their eight games together, St. Brown leads the team in first-read target share (32%) followed by Williams (25%) and then LaPorta (11%). The usage simply hasn’t been there all year. LaPorta’s first-read rate (11%) and expected fantasy points per game (6.3 XFP/G) ranks 27th among tight ends.
Rome Odunze – On a per-game basis, Odunze is the WR80 (7.6) in fantasy points in nine games with Allen/Moore.
Cole Kmet
Caleb Williams – SuperFlex only. Detroit is the best defense in the league by fantasy points per dropback allowed (0.28 FP/DB | fewest).
Stash ‘Em
Roschon Johnson
New York Giants at Dallas Cowboys (Thursday | 4:30p ET)
Start ‘Em
CeeDee Lamb – In three games with Rush under center, Lamb has earned 31 targets but has turned those looks into just 24/181 receiving (14.6 FPG) because his average depth of target has cratered. Lamb’s aDOT is just 5.7 yards downfield with Rush under center, which is well below his mark (9.5 aDOT) with Prescott. Unless the downfield targets return, Lamb remains a volume-based WR2.
Malik Nabers – The Giants are switching quarterbacks again – it’s Drew Lock’s chance. Tommy DeVito is out with an arm injury. Lock’s career YPA (6.7) and sack rate (4.7%) is better than DeVito (6.2 YPA | 16.4% sack) by a decent margin. Cowboys top CB Trevon Diggs (groin) didn’t play last week, and Dallas gave up strong production to both Terry McLaurin (5/102/1 receiving) and Noah Brown (6/71) as a result. Nabers hasn’t finished better than WR23 in weekly scoring in five straight outings, but this looks like an ideal spot to bust the slump. At the very least, Lock will chuck it deep. Lock’s career average depth of throw (8.5 yards) is deeper downfield than Daniel Jones (7.5 aDOT) and DeVito (6.5).
FLEX Plays
Tyrone Tracy – Unfortunately, the rookie made another costly mistake for a second straight game. Tracy fumbled on the Giants first red-zone possession in the 3rd quarter vs. the Buccaneers, and wasn’t seen again until late in the 4th. He got benched. Tracy finished with nine carries for 44 yards and he got a few dump-off passes in garbage time on their final possession. This comes after Tracy cost his team badly in their last game in Week 10 when he lost a fumble and a pass clanged off of his hands and was picked off in their loss to Carolina. These three turnovers on Tracy have thrown a huge wrench into what has been a breakout rookie season to this point. I expect the Giants to continue to give him chances, but he has to be walking on thin ice. He is a boom-or-bust RB2/FLEX.
Rico Dowdle – The RB31 in FPG (11.4), Dowdle gets an ideal matchup as slight home favorites against a leaky Giants run defense that’s allowing a league-high 5.1 YPC. Dowdle is coming off a game where he posted his second-highest snap rate (64%) this season.
Sit ‘Em
Luke Schoonmaker – In three games where Jake Ferguson has missed or left the game early, Schoonmaker has tallied 6/43, 6/56, and 3/55/1 receiving. He’s going to split routes again with Brevyn Spann-Ford like last week – Schoonmaker was involved on 56% of the pass plays while Spann-Ford was on the field 32% of the time. If you’re absolutely desperate for a streamer at TE, then Schoonmaker is in play. The problem is that this is the worst possible spot for tight ends. The Giants are erasing TEs to 35.3 yards per game (third-fewest) and a league-low -4.5 schedule-adjusted FPG below average.
Cooper Rush – Has played significantly better over his last two starts after faceplanting in his debut vs. Eagles. Rush has completed 63% of his throws for 215.3 yards per game, 3 TDs, and 3 turnovers (1 INT, 2 fumbles) in his three starts.
Drew Lock – Stream the Cowboys D/ST.
Wan’Dale Robinson
Darius Slayton
Devin Singletary
Jalen Tolbert
Theo Johnson
Miami Dolphins at Green Bay Packers (Thursday | 8:20p ET)
Must Start
De’Von Achane – Since Tua returned five weeks ago, Achane has tallied up 26/179/4 receiving (13.6 PPR FPG ~WR26). He’s basically a strong WR2 in PPR and the lead back on the Dolphins as one hybrid player. Achane has finished top-8 in scoring among running backs in six out of Tua’s 7 starts.
Josh Jacobs – Quietly, he’s the RB8 in yards from scrimmage per game (102.7). That’s just behind Bijan Robinson (103.8).
Start ‘Em
Jordan Love – Not including the Week 8 game where left early (groin), Love is QB8 in fantasy points per game (19.4) – just behind Brock Purdy (19.5 FPG). Dating back to last season, Love has thrown for 2 or more passing TDs in 15 of his last 19 contests. Miami almost exclusively plays zone coverage (72% frequency). The only quarterbacks who are averaging more yards per pass attempt against zone coverages than Love (8.8) are Lamar Jackson (9.8) and Brock Purdy (9.5).
Jonnu Smith – Over the last five weeks, Smith leads the Dolphins in targets (34) over Hill (32), Achane (28), and Waddle (26). Green Bay allows a solid 57.5 yards per game to tight ends (12th-most) and +2.6 schedule-adjusted FPG above average (seventh-most).
FLEX Plays
Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle – It has been a season to forget for Hill, who is still battling the lingering effects of a wrist injury. In a perfect matchup against the Patriots, Hill had another lowly day with just 5/48 receiving. Of course, we saw Jaylen Waddle come to life out of nowhere for his best game of the season (8/144/1 receiving) with Hill held in check. In six games with Tua Tagovailoa this season, Hill’s usage (21% target share) has been cut significantly in this new Dolphins offense. Jonnu Smith (17% target share) has emerged as a great third option while De’Von Achane (17% TS) leads the Dolphins in designed targets (18). It’s a big change. Hill saw 30 designed targets last season. Hill has just five designed looks in 6 full games with Tua. Both of the Dolphins receivers are WR3/FLEX options. Hill is averaging 67.8 yards per game (WR17) with Tua under center. Waddle is just behind him (64.7 YPG – WR22), while seeing 12 fewer targets than Tyreek. Packers top CB Jaire Alexander (knee) is set to miss another game.
Jayden Reed – With Romeo Doubs (concussion) out, we’ll see the Packers' targets condense a little bit. Their overall volume remains a concern, though. Green Bay has only dropped back to pass 18 and 24 times in their last two games, and their pass rate has been at least -3% below expectation in four straight outings. Reed is second on the Packers in target share (16%) against zone coverages after Doubs (18%).
Sit ‘Em
Christian Watson and Dontayvion Wicks – These two will both run more routes with Doubs out this week, but picking which one to play in fantasy will make you want to pull your hair out. Miami is allowing the sixth-fewest yards per game to opposing outside wide receivers (81.0).
Tua Tagovailoa – Miami has really ramped up its pass rate since Tua returned five weeks ago. In this span, only the Bengals (+13%), Bills (+9%), and Chiefs (+8.5%) are more pass-heavy than the Dolphins (+6% pass rate over expectation). Tua crushed the Raiders and Patriots in two ideal matchups at home over his last two starts, but this is an opposite layout on the road against a Packers pass defense that’s holding opposing QBs to -2.9 schedule-adjusted FPG below average over the last eight weeks (sixth-fewest).
Tucker Kraft – Scored a TD last week, but it was the sixth straight game where Kraft’s target share was 13% or lower.
Romeo Doubs – Out with a concussion.
Raheem Mostert and Jaylen Wright
Las Vegas Raiders at Kansas City Chiefs (Friday | 3:00p ET)
Must Start
Brock Bowers – Putting up a ridiculous 15.2 PPR points per game, which would easily beat Sam LaPorta’s mark (14.1) last season as the most FPG by a rookie TE all-time. No defense is allowing more yards (72.5) or receptions (6.3) per game to tight ends than Kansas City.
Travis Kelce – Over the last six weeks since the Chiefs bye, Kelce has earned 55 targets and turned those looks into 44/341/2 receiving (14.9 PPR FPG). He crushed the Raiders for 10/80/1 receiving back in Week 8.
Start ‘Em
Patrick Mahomes – Since bottoming out against the 49ers back in Week 7 out of their bye, Mahomes has turned his season around with a 72% completion rate, 12:3 TD-to-INT ratio, 256.8 passing yards per game, and 21.4 FPG (QB8) over his last five contests. The Chiefs (+8.5% pass rate over expectation) are the third-most pass-heavy team in this span behind only the Bengals (+13%) and Bills (+9%). Las Vegas allows 0.43 fantasy points per dropback (eighth-most), and they’ve given up at least 18 FP to opposing quarterbacks in six straight games.
Jakobi Meyers – With Gardner Minshew (collarbone) out for the season, the Raiders will turn to Aidan O’Connell under center. O’Connell has started 11 games in his career, in which he averages 215.4 yards per game (6.5 YPA) and has a 12:7 TD-to-INT ratio. I believe that O’Connell should have been the Raiders starter over Minshew. In their five games together without Davante Adams on the team, Brock Bowers leads the Raiders in targets (48) by a slim margin over Meyers (44). With a condensed target share around these two pass catchers, we’ve seen Meyers develop into a high-end WR2 in fantasy with 34/378/1 receiving (16.0 PPR FPG ~WR12). This is a tough matchup because the Chiefs are limiting opposing outside wide receivers to just 77 yards per game (third-fewest), but Meyers’ volume has been so consistent. He’s earned at least 20% of the Raiders targets in six out of his last 7 games.
FLEX Plays
Isiah Pacheco – He’s back! Pacheco will play after missing Weeks 3-12 with a fractured ankle. It’d be foolish to expect him to return to a usual 70% snap rate this week, but Pacheco has been ramping up in practice for three weeks now. We’re projecting him to get 12-16 touches with a good shot at a goal-line TD. Kansas City (27.5 implied total) has the second-best outlook on the slate.
DeAndre Hopkins and Xavier Worthy – The Raiders secondary has been cleaned out by injuries as Jakorian Bennett and Nate Hobbs are both out for a second straight game. Over the last five weeks together, Hopkins is earning a target on 24% of his routes while Worthy is still at 16%. However, the rookie continues to lead the Chiefs WR rotation in routes. Hopkins remains a part-time player. Since Week 8, Worthy has led the team in routes (70% share) followed by Justin Watson (58%), Noah Gray (51%), and Hopkins (51%). Veteran JuJu Smith-Schuster is coming off his second-highest participation rate (49%) of the season to throw another body in here. This is a great spot against a beat up defense, but the lack of targets for Worthy and playing time constraints on Hopkins make both Chiefs wideouts WR3/FLEX options.
Sit ‘Em
Alexander Mattison and Ameer Abdullah – Mattison (ankle) has returned to limited practice while Zamir White (groin) remains out. The Raiders backfield is a full fade this week against a Chiefs defense that only allows 53.4 rushing yards per game to running backs (fewest).
Tre Tucker
Noah Gray
Aidan O’Connell
Stash ‘Em
Kareem Hunt – If Pacheco isn’t fully healthy or misses more time, then Hunt will slide back into lineups as a strong RB2.
Sunday + Monday Games
The main slate will be added soon. Check back!
