2024 Week 12 WR/CB Fantasy Matchups

With Fantasy Points Data — a project we’ve worked on for nearly two years behind the scenes before launching in 2023 — we wanted to answer one big question: what if we tailored all of the data our team has gathered (hand-charted from our team of experts) directly to the fantasy player?

Based on years of playing season-long fantasy, dynasty, and DFS — and using all the charted data out there to build models and try to gain an advantage in a game where the margins are shrinking — we believe we’ve found where we can do things better. That is the Fantasy Points Data Suite.

Using Fantasy Points Data, I wrote a (FSWA nominated!) weekly column last year called the Mismatch Report. It identified the biggest OL/DL and WR/CB mismatches of the week based on our data.

But now, we have an actual NFL scout, Scott DiBenedetto, breaking down our OL/DL matchups. So I’m going to make this a column focused on some WR/secondary matchups that I’m identifying as either problematic or potentially juicy for fantasy.

WR/CB Tool

Our WR/CB Matchup Tool is sortable with loads of matchup data.

A note on our process: there are very few situations in the NFL in which one receiver will match up with one corner for the vast majority of his routes. So honestly, WR/CB matchups in the traditional sense are perhaps the most overrated form of fantasy analysis.

We aim to do them better: our process breaks down how many routes a receiver runs from a certain alignment, and assigns a weighted score based on how much that receiver is expected to see a given defender based on those alignments. So it will measure how often we expect a receiver to face all defenders in a matchup, not just one particular defender, and weigh a score by those expected percentages.

If I do believe there will be a “shadow CB” situation, I’ll mention it and break down the matchup.

SHADOW ALERT! Steelers CB Joey Porter, Jr. vs. Browns WR Jerry Jeudy

You might ask me: “Dolan, why Jerry Jeudy and not Cedric Tillman?” Well, the fact of the matter is I’m not 100% sure here. When writing this column, there is some projection involved (for instance, Christian Gonzalez did not shadow Puka Nacua last week), and that means an occasionally wrong prognostication.

But the concept here is simple — while I think this is a toss-up, when the Steelers choose to shadow Porter against a team with similar “WR1s,” the big-play threat typically takes precedence. And per our Fantasy Points Data team, that is currently Jeudy. Both Jeudy and Tillman run about a third of their routes in the slot, however, which could mean that Porter does kind of a “double shadow” — when one goes inside, he shadows the other on the outside.

After getting burned for the first time all year by Terry McLaurin in Week 10, Peezy Jr. shadowed Rashod Bateman in Week 11 (as we projected), and held him catchless in his primary coverage.

I’m downgrading both Jeudy and Tillman to low-end WR3s this week, especially given the projected cold weather and low projected point total.

SHADOW ALERT! Patriots WR Christian Gonzalez vs. Dolphins WR Tyreek Hill

We projected a Gonzalez shadow on Puka Nacua last week, and that was pretty much DOA — Gonzalez aligned over Nacua on just 3 routes, and only 1 of those routes was on the perimeter (Nacua caught a single pass for 10 yards in Gonzalez’s coverage). In all, Gonzalez had a great day against the Rams, allowing just 3 catches for 19 yards in his primary coverage, and he wasn’t responsible for any of Matthew Stafford’s 4 TD passes.

So maybe the Patriots are adjusting how they use Gonzalez, who has been solid but — as I write every week to the point I have been making fun of myself for it — not an unassailable matchup for top WRs.

But we do have information from when these two teams matched up back in Week 5, and in that contest, Gonzalez shadowed Hill on 77.8% of his routes, allowing 3 catches for 55 yards in his primary coverage. Of course, Tua Tagovailoa didn’t play in that game, and that’s a significant factor in Hill’s relative lack of production.

I’ve tried to come up with more creative ways to say I don’t outright avoid a Gonzalez shadow, but it’s hard to do 12 weeks into a season. The bigger concern for me is not the matchup with Gonzalez, but the fact that the deep ball aspect of Hill’s game has almost completely dried up — he’s posted two of his three lowest aDOT games of the season in the last two weeks.

I still view him on the WR1 radar.

SHADOW ALERT! Broncos CB Pat Surtain vs. Raiders WR Jakobi Meyers

My assertion from last week’s column was correct — Surtain would kind of “double shadow” Drake London and Darnell Mooney, following them around outside when the other worked inside. And it did not go well for the two Falcons stars, as they were held catchless in Surtain’s primary coverage.

In my mind, this matchup is much more straightforward. While Meyers has run 36% of his routes from the slot this year, three of his four highest rates of slot usage on a per-game basis came with Davante Adams still in the Raiders’ lineup. His second-lowest rate came in Week 5 against Surtain and the Broncos, when Meyers saw Surtain’s coverage on 50% of his routes and caught just 1 pass for 18 yards on him (despite an overall stat line of 6/72).

Meyers can be moved around enough that this isn’t a complete and utter fade situation in season-long leagues, where I consider him more of a WR3. But I can’t imagine getting to the window with him in DFS, despite his status as a PPR monster in a post-Adams world.

SHADOW ALERT! Giants CB Deonte Banks vs. Buccaneers WR Mike Evans

The Giants have given up on Daniel Jones, who will probably never play another snap in their uniform, but haven’t gotten to that point yet with 2023 first-rounder Banks, who has been deployed as a shadow CB this year to unsavory results (to the point of temporary benchings).

Among CBs with 200 or more coverage snaps played this year, Banks’ 0.42 FP/CS allowed is tied for 2nd-most in the NFL. His 6 TD receptions allowed in his primary coverage are the 2nd-most, as well. His 144.1 passer rating allowed when targeted is the highest in the NFL. Nonetheless, he has shadowed an opposing WR on more than 60% of routes in seven games this year. The Giants are playing with fire, and Banks is getting burned.

So if there’s a matchup Evans wants to see in his return from a hamstring injury, this is likely it. It’s possible — like with Danny Dimes — that the Giants have made an adjustment over the bye and are taking some responsibility off of Banks’ plate. But they haven’t yet found a better option.

Evans is a high-end WR2 with WR1 upside, and I’m only hedging because he’s over 30 and coming off a hamstring injury. I expect Baker Mayfield to go right back to targeting his main man.

Broncos WR Courtland Sutton vs. Raiders CB Decamerion Richardson

The Raiders’ secondary is absolutely decimated. All of starting LCB Jack Jones, RCB Jakorian Bennett, and slot CB Nate Hobbs are on the injury report, with Hobbs having missed last week’s loss to the Dolphins, and Bennett getting hurt two plays in.

That has led to an increase in snaps for Richardson, who has shown some flashes but is obviously raw as a 4th-round rookie out of Mississippi State. Among CBs with 50 or more coverage snaps played this year, Richardson’s 2.34 yards per route tun allowed rank 5th-most. Richardson has played 50% of his coverage snaps at RCB (and 25% at LCB and in the slot), where he’ll align across from Sutton most of the time.

The good news for Sutton is that he should be able to attack this beat-up back end. The bad news is that the Raiders have adjusted for their injuries and are playing a lot of two-high coverage, which has helped them limit opposing outside WRs to -10.1 schedule-adjusted FPG over the last five weeks, second-lowest in the NFL.

Personnel-wise, this is a huge win for Sutton. Schematically? I’m not so sure. I still like him as a high-end WR2 this week, with a red-hot Bo Nix.

Chargers WR Ladd McConkey vs. Ravens CB Marlon Humphrey

Keep in mind that schematic matchups can matter much more than individual matchups, and honestly, that’s usually the case (see the intro to this article). And that’s why I’m highlighting this matchup despite Humphrey being PFF’s top-graded CB in coverage (PFF also only grades players in coverage when they’re targeted, which can be problematic).

Despite Humphrey’s prowess as a slot master, the Ravens have been a slot-funnel defense by the numbers — they’re allowing a league-high +6.4 schedule-adjusted FPG to opposing slot receivers over the last five weeks. That obviously coincides well with McConkey’s strengths and the fact that Justin Herbert might be playing the best football of his career right now.

I like The Good Lad as a borderline WR1 in the Harbaugh Bowl (have you heard about this??????).

Commanders WR Noah Brown vs. Cowboys CB Caelen Carson/Josh Butler

Yes, I suspect this is a big bounceback spot for Commanders star WR Terry McLaurin after Eagles rookie CB Quinyon Mitchell put the clamps on him in Week 11. I anticipate McLaurin will be a popular DFS pick.

But I actually prefer the matchup for Brown, who ranks highly in our Average Separation Score (ASS) metric — among receivers with 100 or more routes run, he is 13th. What’s most notable is that, in true Kliff Kingsbury fashion, the Commanders’ WRs mostly stay in the same alignment. Browns runs over 70% of his routes from the right side of the formation, which is by far the highest such number of any starting receiver in the NFL.

And — wouldn’t you know it — the Cowboys deploy Carson over the RWR over 92% of the time. That’s been good news for wideouts. Carson’s 0.48 FP/CS allowed is third-most among all CBs with 100 or more coverage snaps played.

The Cowboys certainly know that’s a problem area. They benched Carson last week for Josh Butler, a TikTok star who left Michigan State as an undrafted free agent in 2018 but just made his NFL debut this year.

So Brown — who has been unlucky with penalties called, by the way — gets either a 5th-round rookie who has been toasted all year, or a 27-year-old rookie who will be lucky to earn more career dollars in the NFL than TikTok followers.

I LOVE him as a DFS lineup filler and in the prop market this week, presuming Jayden Daniels is actually healthy.

49ers CB Deommodore Lenoir vs. Packers WR Jayden Reed

The problem with the Packers having too many good WRs is that they might not be optimally using those WRs. In Week 11’s win over the Bears, Reed ran a route on just 60% of the Packers’ dropbacks, tied for his second-lowest rate of the season (though he also ran 91.7% of his routes from the slot, a season-high). In fact, his three lowest route shares have come in the Packers’ last four games, a span over which Reed ranks as the WR53 with 9.2 FPG.

Meanwhile, the 49ers have correctly identified Lenoir as one of the NFL’s premier slot defenders, signing him to a monster extension just over a week ago. Over the last five weeks, Lenoir has contributed to the 49ers being stifling to opposing slot WRs, allowing a league-low -8.9 schedule-adjusted FPG to the alignment.

I love Reed’s game, and he scored last week, but he’s been targeted more than 4 times just once in the last month. He’s a WR4 for me this week.

Eagles DBs vs. Rams WRs

Real football nerds are going to be absolutely locked-in on Sunday night for this matchup. Perhaps the most underdiscussed defensive development in the NFL is the fact that the Eagles might well be developing their own Legion of Boom, on the strength of rookie CBs Quinyon Mitchell and Cooper DeJean.

Among all 117 CBs with 100 or more coverage snaps played, Mitchell has allowed an 10th-fewest 0.16 FP/CS, while DeJean is allowing the 18th-fewest (0.18). And Philadelphia’s defense in general has been unlocked since DC Vic Fangio benched veteran slot man Avonte Maddox for DeJean in Week 6. Since then, the Eagles have allowed 155 passing yards per game (fewest), have allowed just 2 TD passes (fewest), and have sacked opposing QBs 22 times (2nd-most).

It has resulted in the worst environment for fantasy WRs. The Eagles have stifled them to -18.6 schedule-adjusted FPG, nearly double as bad as 2nd-place San Francisco (-10.3). Indeed, Terry McLaurin caught just 1 pass last week, and he was held catchless by Mitchell on 21 routes in his primary coverage. But this is the toughest test yet for Mitchell and DeJean, with Matthew Stafford chucking it around to Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua.

It’s impossible to rank Kupp and Nacua low given their level of play (we have them both as top-five options this week, so you’re not benching them). And maybe this is the week the rookies get taken to school by a veteran QB and excellent coach. If you can’t tell, I’m really struggling to be definitive here given how much Kupp and Nacua should scare a secondary that starts two rookies.

But can you get away with fading the Ram offense in an exciting DFS showdown slate? It’s possible!