Welcome to Week 12 Start ‘Em, Sit ‘Em.
This game-by-game article breaks down every player that is relevant for fantasy football. As always, please use our projections to make your start/sit decisions every week. The analysis in this piece provides color – and a lot of stats – behind the projections.
Unless stated otherwise, all of the data in this article is from Fantasy Points Data and specifically curated from the Data Suite. Our collection team has charted every play from every game over the last three seasons, and we will have fresh, weekly data imported into the tools on Monday after the games.
The Start’ Em, Sit ‘Em key
Must Start — Don’t take them out of your lineup, even if there is a fire.
Start ‘Em — The top-12 at QB and TE; top-20 plays at RB; top-25 at WR.
FLEX Plays — All of the best RB2/WR3 plays.
Stream ‘Em — The best one-week plays at QB and TE for streaming off of the waiver wire.
Sit ‘Em — Don’t play them in your lineups. This could be due to a poor role, matchup, or performance.
Stash ‘Em — Step 1: Hold them on your bench. Step 2: Profit.
Good luck this week!
Pittsburgh Steelers at Cleveland Browns (TNF)
Weather conditions during gametime call for rain/snow mix with winds of 10-15mph. It’s a knock to this scoring environment for fantasy. This game over/under has sunk 7 points since opening at 43.5 to 36.5 now.
Must Start
George Pickens – Since the QB change to Russell Wilson in Week 7, Pickens is WR9 in FPG (17.7) with 22/365/2 receiving on 33 targets. His catchable target rate is 85% with Wilson, and that’s a significant uptick from 74% with Fields. The Browns almost exclusively play one-high safety coverage (66%). When Pickens has seen Cover-1 (man) or Cover-3 (zone), his 32% target share trails only Malik Nabers (39%) and Justin Jefferson (35%). By comparison, his 19.8% TS vs. 2-hi coverages ranks 32nd among WR.
Start ‘Em
David Njoku – Has earned at least seven targets in 4 straight outings and he’s turned those looks into a stellar 7.3 receptions and 61.8 yards per game with 2 TD in this span. The Steelers are tough against wide receivers (-4.8 schedule adjusted FPG allowed | seventh-fewest), but are middle of the pack against tight ends (+0.5 saFPG | 12th-most).
Najee Harris – This looks like a spot for the Steelers to ride Najee as slight favorites (-3.5) in gnarly conditions. Pittsburgh has remained very run-heavy with Wilson under center, calling the fourth-fewest passes under expectation (-6.5%) since Week 7. Harris is averaging 18.6 carries and 87.6 rushing yards per game with 3 TDs over their five-game win streak. Most importantly, Harris has almost all of the TD upside. Najee has 11 carries inside-the-10 to Jaylen Warren’s 3 over their last four games.
Cedric Tillman and Jerry Jeudy – With six teams out on a bye and the weather concerns firmly baked into projections, this duo still is among the best WR2/FLEX options on the slate. The volume is amazing here. Over the last three weeks, only the Bengals, Bills, and Chiefs are more pass-heavy than the Browns. Jeudy just shredded the Saints and has now finished as a top-36 WR in three straight games. Tillman slowed down last week (3/47 receiving) while Jeudy (6/142/1) lost his mind, but Tillman still earned eight targets in his 4th straight game. Jeudy has earned a whopping 34% of the first-read targets when facing one-high safety coverage with Winston under center, while Tillman (25.5%) is second. No team runs more 1-hi than Pittsburgh (71%).
Sit ‘Em
Elijah Moore – The Steelers are much tougher against slot receivers (1.58 YPRR allowed | third-fewest) than outside receivers (2.16 YPRR | ninth-most). This is a poor schematic matchup for Moore – he’s third on the Browns in target share (17.5%) when facing one-high coverages. His target share spikes to a team-high 24% vs. two-high safety looks. Moore remains a PPR-specific WR3/FLEX.
Nick Chubb – The Browns got stomped by the Saints last week, which didn’t allow for much success on the ground for Chubb (11/50 rushing). The major issue here is that this backfield devolved into a compartmentalized split with Jerome Ford back in the fold after missing a few games with a hamstring injury. Ford ran 26 routes (4 targets) while Chubb ran just six routes (0 targets) last week. Until he has a pathway to passing down work, consider Chubb a TD-dependent FLEX on a pass-heavy offense. Pittsburgh is only giving up 78.7 rushing yards per game (sixth-fewest).
Jameis Winston – Over his three starts, Winston has given this Browns passing offense life again with 321.3 yards per game (7.3 YPA) and a +3.4% completion rate over expectation. Winston already has more passing TDs (6) than Deshaun Watson (5 TDs in 7 starts). He has scoring performances of QB7, QB21, and QB9 in weekly fantasy points to show for it. Pittsburgh only allows 11.8 passing FP per game (sixth-fewest). If conditions in this game didn’t look so poor and this matchup wasn’t so tough for passing, then we’d be right back on Jameis as a top streaming option.
Russell Wilson – SuperFlex only. No team is pressuring opposing quarterbacks more often than the Browns (43.2%). When he’s been pressured, Wilson has struggled. He’s averaging 0.26 fantasy points per dropback (31st-of-41 QBs) when pressured, but that spikes to 0.58 FP/DB (13th-best) when he’s kept clean.
Jaylen Warren – Has cleared 59 scrimmage yards in four straight games, but Warren doesn’t have much TD upside, with Harris getting the majority of goal-line work.
Jerome Ford
Pat Freiermuth – He hasn’t earned more than three targets in 6 straight games.
Mike Williams – Has been involved on just 24% and 29% of the pass plays in two games as a Steeler.
Calvin Austin
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New York Giants
Start ‘Em
Malik Nabers – The Giants are embracing the tank and turning to Tommy DeVito as Daniel Jones’ career in New York has come to an end. DeVito averaged 171.6 passing yards per game (6.5 YPA) in his five starts last season, which really isn’t far behind what Jones has provided this year (207 YPG | 6.1 YPA). The major issue with DeVito is his insane sack rate – he took a sack on an unreal 16.9% of his dropbacks last season. That’s debilitating for an offense. You’re continuing to play Nabers as a volume-based WR2. The good news is that this matchup is burnable. Tampa Bay allows the fifth-most receiving yards per game (207.6) to opposing outside/slot receivers.
Cade Otton – In his three games without Chris Godwin and Mike Evans on the field, Otton led the Buccaneers in target share (26%) over Rachaad White (15%) and Bucky Irving (12%). The result was a stellar 22/193/3 receiving (on 28 targets). The Buccaneers have ramped up Otton’s slot usage (39%) significantly without Godwin on the field. He ran 28% of his routes lined up inside in Weeks 1-7. Evans’ return will lower Otton’s ridiculous volume, but there is no concern that Otton can still return TE1 fantasy numbers with Mayfield playing so well. The concern this week is the matchup. The Giants have faced an incredibly easy slate of opposing TEs so far but have erased them to just 33.2 yards per game (second-fewest).
Tyrone Tracy – Over his last four games, Tracy has broken out for 60/337/2 rushing (13.4 PPR FPG – RB26). Veteran Devin Singletary is only working in a change-of-pace role now. The rookie has out-snapped Singletary by a 70% to 28% margin in their last four outings. Most importantly, Tracy has taken every single carry inside-the-20 in this span (7 carries to 0 for Singletary).
Baker Mayfield – Now that he has his top wideout back, Mayfield is back on the board as a lower-end QB1. He finished as fantasy’s QB8, QB16, and QB24 in three games without Godwin/Evans. Prior to then, Mayfield was a locked-in fantasy starter. I’m optimistic that he can get back to that form. Mayfield finished as a top-8 scoring QB in 6-of-7 games to start his season. The Giants can generate a strong pass rush, but they’re burnable in the secondary. T Tristian Wirfs (knee) is out, which does affect his projection slightly downwards.
Mike Evans – Welcome back. Evans is tracking towards a return after missing four games (5 weeks total due to bye) with a hamstring injury. While he could be limited in his first action since Week 7, this is clearly a terrific matchup on paper. The Giants allow 2.35 yards per route run to opposing outside wide receivers – third-most. CB Deonte Banks is allowing 0.42 FP per route run in his coverage, second-most among all starting CBs this weekend. I fully expect that Evans will be funneled 8 to 12 targets in every game moving forward, and his rest-of-season schedule has league winner written all over it.
FLEX Plays
Rachaad White and Bucky Irving – Over their last four games together, Irving (38) holds the lead in carries over White (29). OC Liam Coen is doing a great job at scheming up designed screens for his RBs in place of Godwin now – White (16) and Irving (13) were second and third on the Buccaneers in targets over their last 3 games. Mike Evans' return will lower their passing volume here, but both remain on the board as RB2/FLEX options every week. No team is allowing more YPC (5.2) than the Giants.
Sit ‘Em
Wan’Dale Robinson – You’re looking for more upside. Robinson has finished as the WR31, WR34, WR35, WR17, WR41, WR55, WR72, and WR31 in eight games with Nabers.
Darius Slayton – Will return after missing Week 9 with a concussion.
Jalen McMillan – After missing two games with a strained hamstring, McMillan returned to full practice this week. He’ll play in Week 12, but he has a tough uphill climb in order to earn targets with Evans back, Otton heavily involved, and both White/Irving getting the majority of designed looks.
Devin Singletary – Tracy’s handcuff.
Theo Johnson
Sterling Shepard
Detroit Lions at Indianapolis Colts
Must Start
Amon-Ra St. Brown
Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery – In their 10 games together, Gibbs is RB6 in PPR points per game (18.2). Gibbs is the only RB that has finished as a top-24 weekly scorer in every game that they’ve played this season. Meanwhile, his running mate David Montgomery is RB13 with 16.1 PPR FPG. Montgomery has scored 25 TDs in 26 games with the Lions (including playoffs). The Colts are giving up the sixth-most yards per game (115.1) on the ground.
Start ‘Em
Jonathan Taylor – The only RB that played on a higher rate of their team’s snaps last week than Taylor (90%) was CMC (93%). Taylor’s volume isn’t a concern, but this is a rough matchup on paper. The Lions have absolutely stonewalled the Texans and Jaguars run games for a combined 40/75/1 rushing (2.2 YPC) over the last two weeks.
Jared Goff – Fresh off of waxing the Jaguars for 412 yards and 4 TDs, Goff catches another great matchup here. It’s strength vs. weakness upfront. The Colts are pressuring opposing quarterbacks on only 25% of their dropbacks (second-worst on slate), which is huge for Goff’s outlook. The only quarterbacks that are averaging more fantasy points per dropback when they have a clean pocket than Goff (0.72) are Jalen Hurts (0.92) and Lamar Jackson (0.89).
Anthony Richardson – There were plenty of signs of improvement last week, but none were bigger than Richardson dialing in his accuracy. This past week, 77% of Richardson’s attempts were catchable while just 10% were off-target. Both of these figures from our charting team are season-best marks. At least 24% of his throws were off-target in each of his six previous starts. Richardson also took a season-high 10 designed carries for 32 yards and 2 TDs, including the game-winner. The entire thesis behind Richardson was this level of rushing upside – the explosive plays through the air are just bonuses. This will be a huge test after he just had his best game of his career. Detroit allows a league-low 0.28 fantasy points per dropback.
Josh Downs – Richardson’s reset seemed to work after he demolished the Jets for 20-of-30 passing 272 yards (9.1 YPA) and a TD to Downs. We’ve seen glimpses of Richardson’s upside when it all comes together, and this past week it was on full display. Downs finished with an efficient 5/84/1 receiving on five targets vs. Jets. The Colts dialed back the offense a bit with Richardson’s 9.1-yard average depth of target marking a season-low. It’s a big change after his 13.0 aDOT previously led all QBs before he was benched for Flacco. This is a standout matchup for Downs against a Lions secondary giving up a league-high 111.6 receiving yards per game and +5.3 schedule adjusted FPG above average to slot receivers.
FLEX Plays
Jameson Williams – It was too good of a matchup for Williams last week, and he delivered an absolute hammer (4/124/1 receiving). In seven games with their trio of pass catchers together, it’s St. Brown (33%) and Williams (25%) leading the way in first-read target share in a landslide over LaPorta (9.9%). Once again, Williams is on the board as a high upside WR2/FLEX. The Colts are allowing 62.2 deep passing yards per game (third-most).
Sit ‘Em
Sam LaPorta – After missing Week 11 with a shoulder injury, LaPorta’s fantasy football stock continues to trend down. This offense is based around their lethal RB duo, Amon-Ra St. Brown, and Jameson Williams. LaPorta is TE21 in target share (11.6%) and TE16 in fantasy points per game (8.8), tied with Cole Kmet. He’s TE31 in expected fantasy points per game (5.4) in seven games with Williams on the field. This is the third injury that LaPorta has suffered this season (hamstring strain, ankle sprain, shoulder sprain).
Michael Pittman and Alec Pierce – In their six games with Richardson under center, Pierce (325 yards) has outproduced Pittman (213). Pittman has 14 more targets.
A.D. Mitchell – Was cut down to a lowly 19% route share last week, while Pittman (78%) and Pierce (75%) operated as the primary outside receivers.
Tennessee Titans at Houston Texans
Must Start
Joe Mixon – In his seven full starts, Mixon leads all RBs in fantasy points per game (24.7) by a considerable margin over Barkley (21.8) and Henry (20.7). Except for Week 2 when he injured his ankle, Mixon has scored at least one TD and has at least 90 scrimmage yards in every game.
Nico Collins – After missing five weeks with a hamstring injury, Collins was a bit limited (47% route participation) in his Week 11 return. Despite running only 18 routes, he still tied for the team lead in targets (7). An illegal man downfield penalty wiped a 75-yard house call on the opening play. We should see him back up to his usual 85-90% route share here. In his last 13 games with C.J. Stroud, Collins has racked up 88 receptions for 1,420 yards and 7 TDs on 118 targets. That’s 20.9 PPR points per game.
Start ‘Em
Tony Pollard – If Tyjae Spears (concussion) is out, then Pollard will resume his bell-cow role. In Weeks 5-9, when Spears was out with an injury, Pollard’s snap rate shot up to 82%. His snap rate is 62% in games with Spears.
Calvin Ridley – Over the last four weeks, Ridley has exploded for 24/358/2 receiving on 38 targets (17.8 PPR FPG) without DeAndre Hopkins. His average depth of target has spiked back up to a mouth-watering 18.9 yards downfield over his last two starts with Levis, which gives him a ton of upside. In the Titans' last two games, Ridley has received 37% of the first-read targets, and Nick Westbrook-Ikhine (18%) is the next closest teammate.
C.J. Stroud – In six games with Nico Collins starting this season, Stroud is QB16 in fantasy points per game (16.6). That’s the definition of replacement level. Joe Mixon has scored a TD in seven straight games that weren’t cut short by injury, which eats into Stroud’s upside to a degree. However, Stroud can return as a lower-end fantasy QB1 for the remainder of the season. Houston just posted their highest pass rate over expectation (+13.3%) last week, and they’re the fourth-most pass-heavy team in the league in Collins’ six games. Stroud’s 273.7 passing yards per game (with Collins) would rank QB3 behind Geno Smith (278.1) and Joe Burrow (275.3). If you’re still rolling him out in 1-QB leagues, this is a good spot. After a very easy opening schedule, Tennessee is giving up 19.6 fantasy points per game to QBs over the last five weeks (ninth-most).
FLEX Plays
Tank Dell – Over the last three weeks without Stefon Diggs (ACL), Dell has earned 29%, 27%, and 21% of the Texans targets. Collins will resume taking on the majority of first-read targets, but the condensed target share will keep Dell in play as a WR3/FLEX. Titans CB L’Jarius Sneed (quad) is out again while slot CB Roger McCreary (knee) is questionable.
Sit ‘Em
Will Levis – SuperFlex only.
Tyjae Spears – Questionable to play – he’s in the league’s concussion protocol.
Dalton Schultz – Has not finished better than TE11 in weekly fantasy scoring in a single game this season.
Nick Westbrook-Ikhine
New England Patriots at Miami Dolphins
Must Start
De’Von Achane – Since Tua returned four weeks ago, Achane (19%) is just marginally behind Hill (20%) in target share. He’s tallied up 23/155/2 receiving while getting back to his usually great efficiency on the ground (51/270/2 rushing, 5.2 YPC). Achane is averaging 22.5 PPR points per game in Tua’s five full games, which would make him RB2 behind Joe Mixon (24.7 PPR FPG).
Start ‘Em
Tyreek Hill – Playing through a wrist injury. Over the last four weeks, Hill has 20/229/2 receiving on 26 targets (14.0 PPR FPG). We’re a long way off from his usual ceiling. Tua’s average depth of throw has sunk to a league-low 5.9 yards downfield because this offense is running more through Achane. This is an incredible spot. The Patriots have played man coverage on 59% and 56% of their opponents dropbacks over the last two weeks. Hill is averaging 3.5 yards per route run vs. man-to-man – compared to 2.3 vs. zone.
Rhamondre Stevenson
Jonnu Smith – Has overtaken Waddle as the Dolphins' third target. Over the last four weeks, Smith has earned 18% of the looks, with Miami’s target share flattening out. Most importantly, Smith is coming off a season-high 87% route share last week, which he turned into a dominant 6/101/2 receiving.
Stream ‘Em
Drake Maye – In his five full starts, Maye is putting up a strong 19.0 fantasy points per game. For reference, that would make him the QB7 by a fraction over Jordan Love (18.9). Maye just had his career-best game as a passer (282 yards, 2 TD), but turnovers continue to hold him back from reaching a higher ceiling. Maye is averaging 41.3 rushing yards per game as a scrambler, but his nine turnovers (6 INT, 3 fumbles) need to be reigned in before he really starts hitting big ceiling weeks. Once again, Maye grades out as the best streamer for 1-QB leagues. He has finished as a top-15 scoring QB in fantasy football in all 5 of the games that he’s finished.
Hunter Henry – In the five full games that Maye has started, Henry leads the Patriots in first-read targets (23%) and expected PPR points per game (11.2) by a slim margin over Demario Douglas (22% FR TS% | 10.6 XFP). Miami gives up 5.7 receptions per game to tight ends (sixth-most).
Sit ‘Em
Tua Tagovailoa – Across five full starts, Tua has finished as QB10, QB23, QB18, QB19, and QB10 in weekly scoring. He’s an ideal SuperFlex QB2, but you’re looking for more upside in 1-QB leagues. This is a pretty good spot. The Patriots play man coverage 41% of the time (second-most), and Tua is averaging +26% more fantasy points per dropback when facing man-to-man (0.50 FP/DB) as opposed to zones (0.38 FP/DB). He’s dead last among all quarterbacks in average throw depth (5.9 yards).
Demario Douglas – Has finished as a top-30 scoring fantasy WR once with Maye. Douglas’ matchup this week isn’t great. The Dolphins are holding slot receivers to the sixth-fewest schedule-adjusted FPG below average.
Jaylen Waddle – Over the last four weeks, Waddle has sunk to fourth in targets (13% share) for 11/135 receiving.
Raheem Mostert
Kendrick Bourne and Kayshon Boutte
Antonio Gibson
Dallas Cowboys at Washington Commanders
Start ‘Em
CeeDee Lamb – Over his last two games with Cooper Rush under center, Lamb’s average depth of target has cratered to just 6.7 yards downfield. He leads the team in targets (21) but for only 14/114 receiving (1.50 yards per route run). Lamb’s volume has remained strong (18.8 expected PPR FPG), but the low target depth and shaky QB play make him more of a WR2 moving forward.
Brian Robinson – Robinson’s 14.2 PPR points per game make him the RB24, just ahead of Rachaad White (14.1 FPG). Austin Ekeler and Robinson have played in seven games together this season, in which Robinson holds a huge lead in carries (96 to 32), but Ekeler (44% route share, 25 targets) plays way more in the passing game (Robinson – 24% route share, 9 targets). Overall, B-Rob has way more TD upside. He has 14 carries to Ekeler’s three inside-the-10 (red-zone). Dallas allows a 60.9% success rate (second-worst) and 4.9 YPC (11th-most) on man/gap blocking concepts. Washington uses man/gap blocking 48% of time (fourth-most).
Jayden Daniels – Since he injured his ribs a month ago, Daniels has really cut back on his rushing. He’s averaging just 6.5 carries and 27.5 rushing yards per game (0 TD) over his last four outings after putting up 10.5 carries and 53.7 YPG (4 TD) in his first 6 starts. Until he starts running like usual, Daniels is more of a lower-end QB1. After two tougher matchups vs. Pittsburgh and Philadelphia, this is an easier spot. Dallas is allowing the third-most passing fantasy points per dropback (0.45).
FLEX Plays
Terry McLaurin – Was held to just one catch for 10 yards last week while being locked down by Quinyon Mitchell. McLaurin is WR21 in FPG (14.2). Dallas is set to finally get CB DaRon Bland (foot) back this week. The Cowboys are holding left wide receivers to -3.9 schedule-adjusted FPG below average, which is where McLaurin runs the majority of his routes (73%).
Stream ‘Em
Zach Ertz – Has earned at least 18% of the Commanders targets in four out of his last 5 games. Dallas has shifted back to zone-heavy over their last two games, deploying zone coverage on 77% and 79% of their opponents dropbacks. Ertz co-leads the team in target share (21%) for 2.01 yards per route run vs. zone coverage, but his volume (12.5% TS) and efficiency (0.67 YPRR) fall off when facing man coverage. With six teams out on bye, Ertz is on the board as a streaming option.
Sit ‘Em
Rico Dowdle – Dallas reverted to a split backfield last week with Dowdle (47% of snaps) leading the way over Ezekiel Elliott (32%) and Deuce Vaughn (19%). Dowdle led the Cowboys in carries as usual, but Zeke ran more routes (21) than Dowdle (18). Gross.
Austin Ekeler – Always in play as a desperation FLEX in PPR leagues. Dallas is allowing the sixth-most receiving yards per game (40.8) to opposing RBs.
Jake Ferguson – Out this week with a concussion. Backup TEs Luke Schoonmaker and Brevyn Spann-Ford will split work. Schoonmaker is in play if you’re absolutely desperate for a tight end. Schoonmaker has earned 16 targets on 43 routes (12/99 receiving) for a solid 11.6 expected PPR points per game (based on his role) in the two games that Ferguson has missed.
Noah Brown
Jalen Tolbert
Brandin Cooks – Returned to practice after missing the last month with a knee infection. He wasn’t activated, and he will not play.
Cooper Rush
Minnesota Vikings at Chicago Bears
Must Start
Justin Jefferson
Start ‘Em
Aaron Jones – The Vikings have mixed in Cam Akers more as of late to save Jones’ legs for the playoffs, but Akers has largely been ineffective, with 23/63 rushing in his last two games. It’s just enough to knock Jones’ workload from low-end RB1 levels to more of an RB2 in fantasy. This is a good spot for the Vikings run game – Chicago is giving up 4.9 YPC (fifth-most).
D’Andre Swift – Returned to full practice on Friday (groin). After a slow start, Swift is averaging a stellar 109.1 scrimmage yards per game over his last 7 starts, with at least 16 touches in every game in this span. This is a tougher matchup against a Vikings run defense holding opposing ground games to just 65.3 yards per game (third-fewest).
T.J. Hockenson – In his third game coming back from a major knee injury, Hockenson was still very limited last week. Hockenson only ran a route on 51% of the pass plays as he and Josh Oliver both earned 3 targets. Josh Oliver (ankle) is out, which clears the path for Hockenson to run a full-time route share.
FLEX Plays
D.J. Moore and Rome Odunze – With six teams out on a bye, this trio is on the board as low-end WR3/FLEX options. In their eight games together, Moore (52) and Allen (51) are co-leading the Bears in targets followed by Odunze (43). On a per-game basis, Moore is the WR43 (10.9), Allen is WR68 (8.8), and Odunze the WR80 (7.6) in fantasy points per game. In their first game with interim OC Thomas Brown, we saw Moore operate around the line of scrimmage (0.9-yard average depth of target) while Odunze (11.3-yard aDOT) stretched the field. The simplified passing offense resulted in Williams having his best catchable throw rate (81%) out of any game this season. The Vikings allow +5.1 schedule-adjusted FPG above average to wide receivers (fourth-most).
Sit ‘Em
Sam Darnold – Best used in SuperFlex leagues as opposed to a streamer in 1-QB leagues. In his last five starts after the Vikings bye, Darnold has QB13, QB16, QB7, QB22, and QB7 weekly finishes. Darnold is averaging a rock-solid 238.7 passing yards per game (8.1 YPA) and career-best 6.5% TD, but his 14 turnovers lost have really held him back from reaching a higher ceiling in fantasy. Chicago is limiting opposing QBs to a 2.4% TD (second-lowest).
Jordan Addison – He scored a long 47-yard TD last week, but it was the seventh time that Addison was held to 3 or fewer catches in 8 games. This is a tough matchup – Chicago is holding opposing receivers to -5.6 schedule-adjusted FPG below average (fourth-fewest).
Keenan Allen – Injured his ankle on Friday.
Caleb Williams
Cole Kmet – Targets earned in his eight games with Moore, Allen, and Odunze – 1, 3, 4, 5, 1, 0, 4, and 3.
Cam Akers
Stash ‘Em
Roschon Johnson
Kansas City Chiefs at Carolina Panthers
Must Start
Travis Kelce
Kareem Hunt – HC Andy Reid said on Wednesday that he’s not ready to commit to Isiah Pacheco playing in Week 12 as he continues to ramp up. Pacheco broke his leg back in Week 2. If he needs another week to get right, it might make sense to give him more time. The Chiefs have a short week coming up with a game next Friday vs. Raiders in Week 13. In his seven games as the Chiefs starting RB, Hunt has piled up 16, 28, 24, 22, 28, 21, and 14 touches with 60 or more scrimmage yards in every outing. Carolina is getting waxed for a league-high 133.9 rushing yards per game and they’ve allowed 14 TDs.
Start ‘Em
Patrick Mahomes – Once again, Mahomes projects as a low-end QB1. He gets a boost this week with six teams out on bye, but it’s impossible to get excited about his outlook in fantasy. Mahomes has finished as a top-10 scoring QB in fantasy football just twice in his last 19 games dating back to last year. This is an awesome spot. Only Jacksonville (0.50) allows more fantasy points per dropback than Carolina (0.48).
FLEX Plays
Chuba Hubbard – We will finally see the rookie Jonathon Brooks make his season debut this week while Miles Sanders (ankle) is out. Hubbard has been running so well that it’s hard to envision Brooks as anything more than a change-of-pace RB out of the gates. The big concern for Hubbard is this matchup. Kansas City has allowed more than 50 yards rushing to an individual RB just twice all season.
DeAndre Hopkins – After he crushed the Bucs’ for 8/86/2 two weeks ago, Nuk has just 7 receptions for 85 yards in his last two games. The Chiefs refuse to make him a full-time player. In fact, Hopkins route participation has slid in three straight games (62% > 59% > 51%). We will continue to see Justin Watson (43% route share in Week 11) and JuJu Smith-Schuster (29%) mix in. Nothing about this matchup is scary. Carolina allows the ninth-most yards per game (110.2) to opposing outside wide receivers.
Sit ‘Em
Xavier Worthy – Completely boom-or-bust FLEX. Worthy is leading the WR group in routes, but Kelce (30%) and Hopkins (18%) are earning the lion’s share of first-read targets. Worthy’s 11.3% first-read target share over the last three weeks won’t cut it.
Adam Thielen, Xavier Legette, and Jalen Coker – We should see Thielen make his return after he’s missed seven games with a hamstring injury. Thielen will cut into Jalen Coker’s role in the slot. This is a brutal matchup for Xavier Legette – the Chiefs are holding opposing outside receivers to -4.7 schedule adjusted FPG below average.
Ja’Tavion Sanders
Bryce Young
Denver Broncos at Las Vegas Raiders (4:05p ET)
Must Start
Brock Bowers – Putting up a ridiculous 16.0 PPR points per game, which would easily beat Sam LaPorta’s mark (14.1) last season as the most FPG by a rookie TE all-time. Bowers’ production would make him the WR12, just ahead of Garrett Wilson (15.6 PPR FPG). Bowers hammered the Broncos for 8/97/1 receiving when these teams met back in Week 5.
Bo Nix – At this point, Nix is Must Start. He continues to look more comfortable within this system, and it all culminated in his best game of his career so far last week vs. Atlanta (85% completion, 307 yards, 4 TD). It was a continued trend here. Nix has been excellent over his last seven games, with a 13:2 TD-to-INT ratio and 21.8 fantasy points per game (QB5). He’s finished as a top-12 scoring option in fantasy in 5-of-7 outings in this span. This is another terrific matchup – Las Vegas allows 15.5 passing FPG (eighth-most).
Start ‘Em
Courtland Sutton – Since his random Week 7 goose egg, Sutton has earned at least 8 targets in four straight games for a strong 28/370/1 receiving (17.8 PPR FPG). The Raiders predominantly play two-high safety shell coverages (52% frequency) to keep everything in front of them. So far, the result has been a Chiefs- or Bills-like effect where opposing outside receivers are being very limited to -7.1 schedule-adjusted FPG below average (second-fewest).
FLEX Plays
Jakobi Meyers – In his four games without Davante Adams on the roster, Meyers has turned his 31 targets into 24/257/1 receiving (14.4 PPR FPG). Bowers (33%) leads the way in first-read targets over Meyers (30%) in these four games together. By expected fantasy points (12.6), he’s a solid WR3. Meyers will see a ton of Broncos CB Pat Surtain on Sunday, which dings his projection considerably.
Javonte Williams – The most frustrating backfield in fantasy football took another turn last week. Just when it seemed like the rookie Audric Estime was primed for a bigger role after he took 14 of the 17 RB carries in Week 10, HC Sean Payton started Javonte Williams (9/59/1 rushing | 4/28 receiving on 5 targets) vs. Atlanta while Estime (6/16 rushing | 3/9 receiving) worked as the secondary RB. Estime’s only highlight was a sweet hurdle on a run after the catch in the third quarter. This has become a headache to project every week, and no one’s volume is safe, but this is an incredible spot for this backfield. Denver is favored by -5.5 points on the road against a Las Vegas run defense that’s allowing the fourth-most schedule-adjusted FPG above average (+3.1).
Sit ‘Em
Alexander Mattison – Dealing with an ankle injury. Zamir White (quad) is also hurt. We’ll see Ameer Abdullah play more if one or both of these RBs can’t play.
Audric Estime
Devaughn Vele
Gardner Minshew – Broncos D/ST is the best play on the slate.
Tre Tucker
Arizona Cardinals at Seattle Seahawks (4:25p ET)
Must Start
Kyler Murray – It has been a true roller-coaster season for Murray, with four top-5 scoring fantasy performances among QBs mixed with 4 weeks outside of the top-16. This seems like a perfect week for another ceiling performance. Seattle has allowed at least 19 FP to six out of the last 7 QBs that they’ve faced. The Seahawks just allowed 5/40/1 scrambling to Brock Purdy.
Ken Walker – As expected, Walker has resumed his bell cow role with a 76% snap rate and 70% of the RB carries over his last two games. Most importantly, Walker is running a route on 59% of the pass plays, while Zach Charbonnet is involved just 22% of the time. Only Kamara (6.6), CMC (6.0), Hall (5.5), Achane (5.1), and Rachaad White (4.6) are averaging more targets per game than Walker (4.5).
Trey McBride – All that he does is earn targets. McBride has 150 targets over his last 19 games since becoming a full-time player for a 115/1207/3 receiving result (13.4 PPR FPG). Seattle hasn’t faced any good TEs in their last two games, but they gave up 61.3 receiving yards per game (seventh-most) in their previous 8 outings.
Start ‘Em
James Conner
D.K. Metcalf and Jaxon Smith-Njigba – In his first game back after missing Weeks 8-9 with a knee injury, Metcalf was not limited at all in Week 11 with a 92% route share. Metcalf hit the 49ers for 7/70 receiving. JSN continues to ascend, and he crushed in a perfect matchup for 10/110 last week. Overall, Metcalf led the way in first-read target share (35%), with JSN (30%) right behind him. This duo is shaking out as terrific WR2 plays. Metcalf is WR14 in FPG (15.5) and JSN is WR17 (14.7).
Geno Smith – Through 10 games, Smith is QB10 in fantasy points per game (17.8). This isn’t an overly appealing matchup – Arizona is 22nd in passing FP per dropback allowed (0.35) – but this high-scoring game environment gives Smith a chance to hit a ceiling performance. This over/under (47.5 total points) is fourth-highest on the slate.
FLEX Plays
Marvin Harrison – Through 10 games of his rookie season, Harrison is WR37 in FPG (11.9). This looks like a nice spot to use Harrison as a WR2/FLEX. Over the last two weeks, Seattle has ramped up their man coverage usage to 50% and 47% with Riq Woolen back. Harrison is crushing man-to-man to the tune of a 34% target share and 13/147/2 receiving as a result. By comparison, Harrison is earning 18% TS vs. zone coverages.
Sit ‘Em
Tyler Lockett – Has earned 3, 4, and 3 targets in his last three games.
Noah Fant – Nursing a groin injury. If he’s out again, AJ Barner will continue to fill in.
Michael Wilson
Stash ‘Em
Trey Benson – One of the best upside stashes for the remainder of the season.
Zach Charbonnet – Walker’s handcuff.
San Francisco 49ers at Green Bay Packers (4:25p ET)
Must Start
Christian McCaffrey – In his first two games back, CMC has resumed his normal bell cow role with 89% and 93% of the snaps.
Josh Jacobs – Quietly, he’s the RB8 in yards from scrimmage per game (102.4). That’s just behind Bijan Robinson (103.8). Jacobs’ 79% snap rate marked a season-high last week. The only downside here is this matchup – the 49ers continue to play strong run defense (3.8 YPC allowed | fifth-fewest).
Start ‘Em
George Kittle – After missing Week 11 with a hamstring injury, Kittle returned to a full practice on Friday. He’s off the injury report. His 17.6 PPR FPG leads all TEs by +1.6 FPG over TE2 Brock Bowers.
Jordan Love – Dating back to last year, Love has finished as a top-15 scoring QB in 15 of his last 18 contests (83%). That’s remarkable consistency. Green Bay only ran 43 plays (24 minutes time of possession) last week, which will normalize here. 49ers EDGE Nick Bosa (hip) is out.
Deebo Samuel – You probably have no other choice but to start him, but the 49ers are in a nightmare spot here down Brock Purdy (right shoulder) while All-Pro LT Trent Williams (ankle | questionable) is playing hurt.
FLEX Plays
Jauan Jennings – Purdy’s absence bumps him from Must Start down to more of a WR3/FLEX. In his three games where he’s played at least 80% of the snaps as a starter, Jennings has racked up 18/268/2 receiving (20.9 PPR FPG). Over the last two weeks specifically, Jennings has taken over as the 49ers' primary outside receiver (65% alignment) in place of the injured Brandon Aiyuk. He’s earned a whopping 41.3% of the first-read targets with Samuel (24%) second. We can’t expect that level of volume to continue if Kittle returns, but I see Jennings as a low-end WR1 moving forward. Jennings’ matchup is significantly easier with the Packers top CB Jaire Alexander (knee) out.
Jayden Reed and Christian Watson – We saw a bit of a change in the Packers WR group last week. Watson hit a season-high 70% route share, while Reed was reduced to 60%. Watson got loose for 4/150 receiving on multiple big plays vs. Chicago, and his usage continues to trend up. Watson has earned at least 18% of the targets in three straight games. Meanwhile, Jayden Reed continues to trend the opposite way. Reed hasn’t seen more than 15% of Love’s looks in four straight games. I can’t bench Reed here, though. This is a standout matchup against a 49ers secondary that’s giving up 2.0 yards per route run to slot receivers (fifth-most). Watson’s uptick in usage and TD upside gives me hope for him as a WR3. Watson is second on the Packers in end-zone targets (6) behind Wicks (7).
Sit ‘Em
Romeo Doubs – Now that the Packers are ramping up Watson, we’ve seen Doubs’ target share fall in five consecutive games (30% > 22% > 13% > 12%).
Ricky Pearsall – The rookie’s route share was cut down to 57% last week, with Jennings emerging as the top wideout.
Tucker Kraft – Since Week 6 when Christian Watson returned to the field after missing Weeks 4-5 (ankle), Kraft has been the last on the team in terms of targets per route run (0.13).
Dontayvion Wicks
Brandon Allen
Philadelphia Eagles at Los Angeles Rams (SNF)
Must Start
Saquon Barkley – Leads all RBs in scrimmage yards (134.7 per game) by a mile followed by Joe Mixon (120.9).
Jalen Hurts
A.J. Brown – This could be a debacle for the Rams secondary. Only Atlanta (2.5) is allowing more yards per route run to opposing outside wide receivers than Los Angeles (2.4).
Kyren Williams
Start ‘Em
Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp – If you made it through the first eight weeks of the year with Nacua on I.R., you’ve been rewarded for your patience with absolute hammers of 7/106 receiving (vs. Vikings), 9/98 receiving (vs. Dolphins), and 7/123/1 receiving (vs. Patriots) in the three games that he’s finished. Nacua left Week 1 early (knee) and was ejected in Week 9 for throwing a punch. Nacua (39.7%) has overtaken Cooper Kupp (30.9%) by first-read target share in these three games together. The Rams remaining schedule from Weeks 12-17 is sort of difficult on paper – vs. Phi, at NO, vs. Buf, at SF, at NYJ, vs. Ari – but it might not matter too much with their quarterback balling. Dating back to last year, Matthew Stafford leads all QBs in passing yards per game (296.5), and he owns a stellar 28:6 TD-to-INT ratio in his last 11 starts with Nacua and Kupp. Stafford is averaging 21.5 fantasy points per game in this span, which is borderline top-5 numbers. This is the toughest matchup for opposing wide receivers, which makes both of these receivers more of a lower end WR1 as opposed to slam dunk WR1 that they’ve been in recent weeks. The Eagles are holding opposing outside wideouts to -7.8 schedule adjusted FPG below average, which is a league-low. Quinyon Mitchell vs. Puka Nacua will be fun. Kupp’s matchup is relatively easier, but still not great. Philadelphia only gives up 70.1 yards per game to slot receivers (12th-fewest).
Dallas Goedert – With Devonta Smith (hamstring) out, this looks like an excellent spot for Goedert. Any time that they’re missing a receiver, we just see the Eagles condense their passing offense further. Goedert has 24/291/1 receiving (29 targets) for 14.8 PPR points per game in four games with Brown out over the last two seasons. The Rams allow the fifth-most yards per game (62.3) to tight ends).
Sit ‘Em
Matthew Stafford – We nailed Stafford as a top streamer due to the matchup last week. Unfortunately, this is a completely opposite spot. I’ve taken Stafford out of all of my lineups in 1-QB leagues. The Eagles are holding opposing QBs to -4.5 schedule adjusted FPG below average (second-fewest). Their pass rush has come alive as well. Philadelphia is fourth-best on the Week 12 slate in pressure rate over expectation over the last six weeks.
Devonta Smith – Out (hamstring).
Demarcus Robinson
Jahan Dotson – I wonder how many miles that he’s run this season.
Davis Allen – His routes were cut down to 56% participation last week.
Stash ‘Em
Blake Corum – One of the most valuable bench stashes over the final six weeks.
Baltimore Ravens at Los Angeles Chargers (MNF)
Must Start
Lamar Jackson
Justin Herbert – Over the last six weeks since their bye, Herbert has re-emerged onto the fantasy radar with 268 passing yards per game (8.7 YPA) and a clean 8:0 TD-to-INT ratio. Herbert’s 19.5 fantasy points per game ranks QB10 in this span. He’s finished as a top-15 scorer on a weekly basis in five straight games, and he has a great chance to make it six. Baltimore is the premier matchup for opposing quarterbacks – no secondary allows more passing FP per game (19.5).
Derrick Henry – Has scored a TD in every single game as a Raven.
Start ‘Em
Ladd McConkey and Quentin Johnston – We’re all over Herbert as a top quarterback on this slate – he projects for 264 yards, second-most. This has to mean that we’re also all-in on his top two wideouts. McConkey returned to limited practice, but he’s still feeling the effects of a shoulder injury. It’s the only reason that he’s not a Must Start. Over the last three weeks, the rookie leads the Chargers in target share (22%) followed by Johnston (19%) and Dissly (17%). Baltimore is hemorrhaging a league-high 216.9 yards per game to opposing receivers.
Will Dissly – With Hayden Hurst out again, Dissly has bumped up from a streaming option to a really strong TE play on this slate. In three games without Hurst on the field, we’ve seen Dissly’s route participation bump up to 64% and he’s turned his 23 targets into a stellar 17/202/1 receiving (14.4 PPR FPG). Baltimore also stinks against tight ends, allowing the third-most receptions (6.1) and the fourth-most yards (66.9) per game.
J.K. Dobbins – The Ravens are a terrible pass defense, but their run defense has remained amazing. They’re allowing just 3.3 YPC (second-fewest) as 69% of the runs against them fail to generate positive EPA (per nflfastr).
FLEX Plays
Zay Flowers – On paper, this is a bad spot for Flowers. Los Angeles plays two-high safety coverage at the second-highest frequency (61%). By comparison, his efficiency has fallen off of a cliff against two-high safety coverages (1.42 YPRR | 0.32 FP/RR). Flowers is absolutely shredding single-high coverages to the tune of 3.36 yards and 0.63 fantasy points per route run.
Sit ‘Em
Mark Andrews and Isiah Likely – In their nine games together, this duo has split routes and targets nearly evenly. Andrews holds the slight leads in routes (56% participation) over Likely (53%), but Likely has earned more targets (37 to 30). Andrews is averaging 8.5 PPR FPG (TE20) while Likely is at 8.8 FPG (TE18). Los Angeles is holding opposing tight ends to -3.1 schedule adjusted FPG below average (fourth-fewest).
Rashod Bateman
Justice Hill
Josh Palmer
