2024 Week 10 WR/CB Fantasy Matchups

With Fantasy Points Data — a project we’ve worked on for nearly two years behind the scenes before launching in 2023 — we wanted to answer one big question: what if we tailored all of the data our team has gathered (hand-charted from our team of experts) directly to the fantasy player?

Based on years of playing season-long fantasy, dynasty, and DFS — and using all the charted data out there to build models and try to gain an advantage in a game where the margins are shrinking — we believe we’ve found where we can do things better. That is the Fantasy Points Data Suite.

Using Fantasy Points Data, I wrote a (FSWA nominated!) weekly column last year called the Mismatch Report. It identified the biggest OL/DL and WR/CB mismatches of the week based on our data.

But now, we have an actual NFL scout, Scott DiBenedetto, breaking down our OL/DL matchups. So I’m going to make this a column focused on some WR/secondary matchups that I’m identifying as either problematic or potentially juicy for fantasy.

WR/CB Tool

Our WR/CB Matchup Tool is sortable with loads of matchup data.

A note on our process: there are very few situations in the NFL in which one receiver will match up with one corner for the vast majority of his routes. So honestly, WR/CB matchups in the traditional sense are perhaps the most overrated form of fantasy analysis.

We aim to do them better: our process breaks down how many routes a receiver runs from a certain alignment, and assigns a weighted score based on how much that receiver is expected to see a given defender based on those alignments. So it will measure how often we expect a receiver to face all defenders in a matchup, not just one particular defender, and weigh a score by those expected percentages.

If I do believe there will be a “shadow CB” situation, I’ll mention it and break down the matchup.

SHADOW ALERT! Steelers CB Joey Porter, Jr. vs. Commanders WR Terry McLaurin

Oh yeah. We’ve got an absolute killer matchup here, with perhaps the league’s premier shadow corner going up against a receiver in McLaurin who, finally armed with decent quarterback play, is having a career year.

On the season, Porter has allowed no more than 3 catches or 71 yards to any WR in his primary coverage — that was Michael Pittman in Week 4. But to the receivers he’s shadowed to a route share of 65% or more this year — Quentin Johnston, Courtland Sutton, Kristian Wilkerson, and Drake London — he’s allowed a total of 2 catches for 33 yards when he was the closest defender at the time of target. Porter is allowing just 0.17 fantasy points per route run against him, ninth-fewest among qualified outside CBs.

Now, teams have partially avoided shadows with some top WRs — like CeeDee Lamb and Malik Nabers — by putting them into the slot against Porter. I’m just not sure the Commanders are going to do that much with McLaurin. F1 runs an overwhelming majority of his routes — 72% — from the left side of the offensive formation, and just 19% in the slot. It’s a small sample, but McLaurin also averages more YPRR outside (2.59) than in the slot (2.00).

Ultimately, McLaurin is too good a player to sit for season-long fantasy matchups, but I’m downgrading him to a low-end WR2. He’s a tough sell in DFS, and I’d take a look at some “under” props.

SHADOW ALERT! Patriots CB Christian Gonzalez vs. Bears WR DJ Moore

Gonzalez has shadowed the opposition’s top WR virtually every week this season, and to say his performance has been a mixed bag would be underselling it. His latest draw was with Titans WR Calvin Ridley in Week 9, shadowing him on 70.6% of his routes and allowing 4 catches for 67 yards in his primary coverage.

Gonzalez has covered eight different receivers on more than half their routes this season. He’s allowed 50 yards, a touchdown, or both to five of those in his primary coverage, so he can be had. The question is if Moore has the quarterback play to get him into the box from a fantasy perspective.

As Graham Barfield pointed out in Week 10 Start/Sit, Moore has turned three straight ideal matchups (vs. Jax, at Was, at Ari) into 10/80 receiving on 18 targets. That’s because of those 18 targets, only 11 were catchable, as Caleb Williams’ 68% catchable throw rate ranks ahead of only Anthony Richardson (61%) this season.

As such, even with a beatable shadow matchup, I can’t recommend Moore as anything more (no pun intended) than a low-end WR2 this week.

SHADOW ALERT! Broncos CB Pat Surtain vs. Chiefs WR DeAndre Hopkins

It will be extremely interesting to see the extent of this matchup. Surtain is obviously one of the premier shadow CBs in the NFL — among CBs with 200 or more coverage snaps this year, Surtain’s 0.58 YPRR allowed is 4th-fewest. And of those, he’s the only pure shadow CB (Jalen Ramsey occasionally shadows). But like most shadow CBs, Surtain rarely goes into the slot.

That’s notable because, in his second game with the Chiefs in Week 9, Hopkins ran 45.2% of his routes in the slot, which seems to confirm comments from Andy Reid last week that he would play more of the Rashee Rice role in the offense. But Hopkins actually did most of his damage out wide, averaging 3.00 YPRR there compared to 2.50 YPRR out of the slot… though obviously that’s not a major difference.

And even if Hopkins does go into the slot more in Week 10 to avoid Surtain, Denver has been one of the best slot-defending teams in the NFL — their -3.9 schedule-adjusted FPG allowed to slot WRs on the season is 3rd-fewest in the league (Ja’Quan McMillian is a great slot corner).

Overall, I think Hopkins’ performance in Week 9 was encouraging, and Patrick Mahomes should trust him enough in contested-catch situations that he’s a plug-and-play WR2.

SHADOW ALERT! Giants CB Deonte Banks vs. Panthers WR Xavier Legette

The Giants continue to make Banks their shadow corner, despite the fact that, at times, his play has slipped to the point of his being benched. In fact, against Terry McLaurin last week, Banks shadowed on 95% of routes, the highest rate he’s shadowed any player this year. Banks gave up both of McLaurin’s catches in his primary coverage… both of which went for touchdowns.

We’ve now charted Banks as having given up 6 touchdown catches this year, most of any player. And if there’s one thing Legette has done this year, it’s score touchdowns — he’s ridden Dolla Bill in four of his last six games. There are a couple of uneasy situations here, of course. Even though Bryce Young has played much better in his last two games than he did earlier in the season, there’s still a chance Young’s atrocious struggles from the first two weeks pop up against a Giants team that leads the NFL in sacks. And Legette is still a rookie — you can argue that the best throw of Young’s career was “picked off” because Legette let a defender rip it away last week.

Ultimately, Banks doesn’t scare me at all. But the Panthers’ situation is still tenuous, so Legette is a volatile WR3 in this matchup.

Bengals WR Ja’Marr Chase vs. Ravens DBs

I expect Chase to be the most popular DFS captain, most popular PrizePicks/Underdog play, and the most bet-on player in terms of props against the Ravens on Thursday night.

And it’s obvious why — Baltimore is allowing a ridiculous +16.2 schedule-adjusted FPG to opposing WRs over the last five weeks, +4.5 FPG more than the 2nd-worst defense in the NFL (the Bucs, whom I’ll get to shortly). In fact, Baltimore is so short-handed at CB that they made a deal for dusty-ass Tre’Davious White at the deadline to try to recapture some of his old magic.

I doubt it matters. Chase is the overall WR1 on the Week 10 slate.

49ers WR Ricky Pearsall vs. Buccaneers CBs

I’m going to have interest in Pearsall as a lineup filler on the DFS main slate in Week 10. The main reason is that the Buccaneers have been absolutely slaughtered by perimeter WRs — CBs Zyon McCollum, Josh Hayes, and Tyrek Funderburk have allowed a league-high +11.7 schedule-adjusted FPG to opposing outside WRs over the last five weeks.

While Pearsall has run about 40% of his routes in the slot in his brief NFL career so far, I think that number will plummet with Jauan Jennings and Deebo Samuel both available this week against Tampa. And Pearsall has averaged 1.38 YPRR out wide as opposed to 0.71 in the slot in his two NFL games thus far (a small sample size, to be fair).

So while Pearsall has to compete with Jennings, Samuel, George Kittle, and Christian McCaffrey for touches this week, he might get the most high-quality looks of those guys when he does get opportunities.

Jets DBs vs. Cardinals WRs

First of all, let’s look at the raw numbers. Despite what is generally accepted as a down year for CB Sauce Gardner, the Jets continue to be a brutal matchup for WRs, surrendering a 4th-fewest -5.3 schedule-adjusted FPG to the position. When Gardner, DJ Reed, and Michael Carter have been healthy, this has been a generally stifling secondary. So that’s one feather out of Marvin Harrison, Jr.’s cap.

The other? The fact that Cardinal OC Drew Petzing seems to utterly refuse to do what works with Harrison. For much of the year, Harrison has been running low-percentage deep routes, like posts, corners, and gos. But he has absolutely feasted when asked to go across the middle.

In Week 8, Harrison ran 4 crossing routes against Miami. He was targeted on 3 of them and gained 69 yards — 17.25 YPT. In Week 9 against the Bears, he ran only 1 such route. And he turned it into a 21-yard gain. He gained 13 yards on his other 18 routes run, combined. (And Kyler Murray, perhaps not coincidentally, had a miserable game.)

I’d like to say that Petzing has learned his lesson, but he very clearly still has some bozo tendencies. That, plus this matchup, makes Harrison a low-end WR3 for me. If you want to take solace, the last time I said those words, Petzing made me eat them.

Eagles DBs vs. Cowboys WR CeeDee Lamb

Obviously, there are multiple issues here for Lamb. First and most problematic is the fact that he’ll be without QB Dak Prescott (hamstring) for the near future, and possibly long-term. Second is that he is dealing with a shoulder injury of his own, and might be out or limited.

But in terms of the matchup? That’s also brutal. Over the last five weeks, no team has given up fewer schedule-adjusted FPG to opposing WRs than Philly (-14.7). And that’s especially been true in the slot, where rookie CB Cooper DeJean has been one of the best in the business — DeJean is PFF’s 2nd-ranked CB in coverage and has allowed just 87 yards in his primary coverage this year. On top of that, Philly’s top perimeter CB — Darius Slay — is expected to return from a groin injury this week.

Philly’s defense has tightened into one of the NFL’s best, largely on the heels of DeJean and fellow rookie CB Quinyon Mitchell. That’s a brutal draw for a dinged-up Lamb with Cooper Rush chucking the rock.

If Lamb plays, he’s a low-end WR3. If he doesn’t… well, maybe Dallas should run Rico Dowdle into the ground.