Welcome to Week 10 Start ‘Em, Sit ‘Em.
This game-by-game article breaks down every player that is relevant for fantasy football. As always, please use our projections to make your start/sit decisions every week. The analysis in this piece provides color – and a lot of stats – behind the projections.
Unless stated otherwise, all of the data in this article is from Fantasy Points Data and specifically curated from the Data Suite. Our collection team has charted every play from every game over the last three seasons, and we will have fresh, weekly data imported into the tools on Monday after the games.
The Start’ Em, Sit ‘Em key
Must Start — Don’t take them out of your lineup, even if there is a fire.
Start ‘Em — The top-12 at QB and TE; top-20 plays at RB; top-25 at WR.
FLEX Plays — All of the best RB2/WR3 plays.
Stream ‘Em — The best one-week plays at QB and TE for streaming off of the waiver wire.
Sit ‘Em — Don’t play them in your lineups. This could be due to a poor role, matchup, or performance.
Stash ‘Em — Step 1: Hold them on your bench. Step 2: Profit.
Good luck this week!
Cincinnati Bengals at Baltimore Ravens (TNF)
Must Start
Lamar Jackson – Should be the MVP favorite. Jackson is the only fantasy QB to finish inside of the top-12 weekly scorers in every start this season – he’s finished inside of the top-6 six times already. Over his last seven games, Lamar has completed 70.6% of his throws for 265.6 passing yards per game (10.3 YPA) and a 18:1 TD-to-INT ratio. He shredded the Bengals for 348 yards and 4 TDs back in Week 5.
Derrick Henry – As always, Henry fares far better in wins than losses. He’s averaging 26.1 Half-PPR fantasy points per game in wins (RB1), but that dips to 13.6 FPG (RB19) when Baltimore has lost three times. The Ravens are 6-point favorites over the Bengals. At his current pace (116.9 yards per game), Henry is tracking towards 1,987 rushing yards. Eric Dickerson’s 40-year-long record (2,105 yards in 16 games) is somewhat in jeopardy.
Ja’Marr Chase – In four games without Higgins on the field, Chase’s average depth of target has plummeted (5.5 yards). It’s a huge dip… This is an incredible matchup for Chase to get loose – the Ravens are allowing the second-most yards per game to opposing outside receivers (122.8).
Chase Brown – His path is clear to win leagues. Zack Moss (neck) is out for the rest of the season. Brown hammered the Raiders for 157 scrimmage yards a TD while playing on a bell cow 83% of the snaps last week. This is a polar opposite matchup against a Baltimore run defense that’s shutting down opposing ground games to just 58.4 yards per game (second-fewest), but Brown’s role is so good now. He set a season-high in targets (5) last week.
Zay Flowers – He’s heating up with Lamar. Flowers hammered the Bengals (7/111 receiving) and the Commanders (9/132) in Weeks 5-6 before he injured his ankle in Week 7 vs. Tampa Bay (2 touches, 30 scrimmage yards). He’s fully healthy now. After he crushed the Browns (7/115) in Week 8, Flowers ripped the Raiders last week for 5/127/2.
Joe Burrow – Even without Tee Higgins (quad) again this week, consider Burrow a Must Start QB1 against this Ravens secondary that’s allowing a league-high 19.4 passing fantasy points per game. Burrow has shown a high floor all season long – he’s finished as a top-15 scorer among QBs in seven of his last 8 outings.
Start ‘Em
Mark Andrews – Secondary TE Isaiah Likely (hamstring) has been ruled out. In theory, Likely’s absence clears the path for Andrews to run way more routes this week. Andrews has rejoined the Ravens' passing offense over the last five weeks with 18/224/4 receiving (on 20 targets) for 12.9 PPR FPG. Andrews is second in first-read targets (16% share) behind Flowers (32%) in this span. Cincinnati allows the eighth-most yards per game (58.4) to opposing tight ends.
Stream ‘Em
Mike Gesicki – Back in play as a streamer. In the four games that Higgins has missed, Gesicki has earned 19% of the targets – which is second-most on the team behind only Chase (23%). He has 22/282/2 receiving on 27 targets (15.3 PPR FPG) in those four games to show for it. In five contests with Higgins active, Gesicki has seen just 6% of the targets (8 receptions for 71 yards). The rookie TE Erick All’s unfortunate knee injury clears the way for Gesicki to take on a larger role. He’s run a route on 60.5% of the team’s pass plays in their last two games.
Sit ‘Em
Tee Higgins – Out again (quad).
Isaiah Likely – Out (hamstring).
Rashod Bateman
Diontae Johnson – Only ran six routes (0 targets) last week.
Justice Hill
Andrei Iosivas – In four games without Higgins on the field, Iosivas has 6 receptions for 43 yards and 3 TDs (on 17 targets).
Stash ‘Em
Khalil Herbert – Now that RB Zack Moss (neck) is done for the season, Herbert is the handcuff to Brown. The Bengals desperately needed some depth and someone to take a few early down carries off of Brown’s plate.
New York Giants at Carolina Panthers (in Munich, Germany | 9:30a ET kickoff)
Must Start
Malik Nabers – After a hot start, Nabers has finished as the WR42, WR28, and WR23 in weekly scoring over his last three games. Nabers is on pace for 180 targets, but the problem remains Daniel Jones’ lackluster efficiency (6.2 YPA, 2.6 TD%). This is a home run matchup. Carolina is allowing the fourth-most yards per route run (2.34) to opposing outside wide receivers.
Start ‘Em
Tyrone Tracy – The rookie has made his move on this backfield with 36/211/1 rushing over Devin Singletary (9/44 rushing) in Weeks 8-9. This duo is splitting passing down work with Tracy (27 routes, 4 targets) slightly leading the way (20 routes, 3 targets) in their last two games. However, Tracy is the only one to get red-zone carries (4), which is huge. If the rookie continues to hold off Singletary for goal-line work, then he has a pathway to be an upside RB2 for the rest of the season. Carolina is giving up a monstrous 168.7 scrimmage yards per game to RBs (most).
Chuba Hubbard – Made the most of the matchup against the Saints with 15/75/2 rushing in the Panthers' win over New Orleans. Hubbard (RB16 in FPG) has more than paid off his fantasy ADP as rookie Jonathon Brooks’ ACL rehab has extended much longer than was originally expected and reported. The Panthers brought Brooks up off of the PUP list this week, but they have no incentive to play him this week since they have their bye in Week 11. It’d be foolish to expect a big role for Brooks out of the gates, but the Panthers should want to try and build momentum with the rookie in Week 12 and beyond. For this week, Hubbard remains a strong RB2/FLEX. The Giants are allowing the second-most YPC (5.1).
FLEX Plays
Xavier Legette – Over the last two weeks with Diontae Johnson gone, Legette leads the team in targets (13) for 8/67/2 receiving. Carolina is designing their offense around the rookie, with Legette’s 24% first-read target share leading the way over Jalen Coker (20%) and David Moore (15%). The Giants are not a good secondary, just like the Panthers. New York is allowing the fifth-most yards per route run (2.28) to opposing outside wide receivers.
Sit ‘Em
Jonathon Brooks
Daniel Jones – Through nine starts, Jones has mixed in four top-12 scoring weeks among QBs with 5 games outside of the top-20 entirely. He’s ideally a SuperFlex-only play, but this is objectively a great matchup if you’re desperate for a QB streamer. Carolina is allowing a league-high 0.53 fantasy points per dropback.
Wan’Dale Robinson – You’re looking for more upside. Robinson has finished as the WR31, WR34, WR35, WR17, WR41, WR55, and WR72 in seven games with Nabers.
Darius Slayton – Questionable (concussion). Has earned four or fewer targets in 6-of-7 games with Nabers.
Devin Singletary
Adam Thielen – Didn’t play in Week 9. The veteran did not practice again on Wednesday (hamstring).
Jalen Coker – The Panthers trading away Jonathan Mingo will solidify Coker as the Panthers slot receiver, until Thielen can return.
David Moore – Leads the Panthers in routes over the last two weeks, but he has just 6/59 receiving as a result.
Ja’Tavion Sanders – Has come alive with 16/204 receiving (on 19 targets) over the last four weeks. Sanders is still splitting time for pass routes with Tommy Tremble and Ian Thomas, but he’s talented enough to earn a much larger role. He’s 33rd in route share (48%) among tight ends.
Theo Johnson – Over the last two weeks, Johnson is tied with Slayton for the second most targets (10) over Robinson (9) on the Giants. Nabers has received 44% of the first-read targets in their last two games, but the rookie TE is second (19%). He has 6/86/1 receiving as a result.
Bryce Young
San Francisco 49ers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Must Start
Christian McCaffrey – If you grinded out a 4-5 or 5-4 record with CMC to get to this point, then your patience might get rewarded with a legendary run. Seven of the 49ers' next 8 opponents are among the bottom-12 run defense by YPC allowed (4.6 or more).
George Kittle – In his seven games before the bye, Kittle opened up a sizable advantage over the field with a career-high 18.0 fantasy points per game over TE2 Brock Bowers (14.2). Kittle has four or more receptions in every single game this season. Last year, he recorded 4+ receptions in just 6-of-16 games. Tampa Bay is allowing the second-most yards per game (69.7) and fourth-most schedule-adjusted FPG above average (+3.8) to opposing tight ends.
Cade Otton – Over the last two weeks without Evans and Godwin, the Buccaneers have featured Otton with 21 targets for 17/158/3 receiving (25.4 FPG) as a result. He will eventually cool off, but he’s dominating first-reads with a 30.4% share in their last two outings. The volume will remain amazing.
Start ‘Em
Deebo Samuel – Has cleared 70 or more scrimmage yards in 5-of-6 full games played. Deebo received a whopping 41% of the first-read targets, with Kittle (35%) right behind him in Week 8 without Aiyuk.
Brock Purdy – Dating back to the end of 2022, Purdy has finished as a top-15 scoring fantasy QB in weekly output in 22-of-29 games as the 49ers starter. That’s 76%. Purdy is scrambling way more (5.0 carries, 26.3 rushing yards per game), which adds to his floor in fantasy. Tampa Bay is giving up the third-most passing yards per game (275.8) to opposing quarterbacks, but this isn’t necessarily a perfect matchup. Purdy is averaging -30% fewer FP per dropback when he’s been blitzed this season. No defense is blitzing more often (39%) than Tampa.
FLEX Plays
Rachaad White and Bucky Irving – Over the Buccaneers' last three games, this duo has split carries (Irving – 25 | White – 19) and targets (White – 15 | Irving – 13) nearly right down the middle. White holds the slight lead in red-zone snaps by a 64% to 36% margin in this span. Once again, both running backs are on the board as FLEX options. Although, this is not a good matchup – just like last week. The Buccaneers are big underdog (+6) against a strong run defense. San Francisco only allows 78.6 rushing yards per game (fifth-fewest).
Jauan Jennings – Before missing Weeks 7-8 with a hip injury, Jennings emerged as a legitimate fourth threat. In their five games played together, Kittle (22%) led the 49ers in target share, followed by Samuel (20%), Aiyuk (18%), and Jennings (15%). In fact, he earned one more first-read target than Aiyuk did. Jennings will work out of the slot more often than Ricky Pearsall, and that gives him a better matchup here. Tampa Bay is giving up the second-most yards per game (97.7) to opposing slot wideouts.
Sit ‘Em
Baker Mayfield – Finished as the QB16 in scoring last week in a tough matchup against the Chiefs. It was only the second time all season that Mayfield was outside of the top-10 scorers entirely. I’m treating him as a SuperFlex option only with Mike Evans (hamstring) still out. It’s just really hard to have a high-upside passing offense running through Cade Otton and Sterling Shepard. Mayfield’s pass YPA has slipped from 7.9 in Weeks 1-7 to 6.5 over his last two games without Evans. San Francisco is allowing the eighth-fewest passing FP per game (12.4).
Jordan Mason – Off of the injury report heading into Week 10.
Sterling Shepard
Jalen McMillan – Didn’t play in Week 9 due to a hamstring injury.
Trey Palmer
Rakim Jarrett
Sean Tucker
Stash ‘Em
Ricky Pearsall – Available in over 70% of Yahoo! leagues, which is a mistake. Pearsall led the 49ers in routes (76% share) in his first two games in Weeks 7-8.
Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans
Must Start
Alvin Kamara – After he split snaps in Weeks 7-8, we saw the Saints shift back to bell cow Kamara with a 76% snap rate last week. He has earned 7 or more targets in six straight games, and now Chris Olave (concussion) is set to miss time. Kamara is averaging a ridiculous 163.4 scrimmage yards per game in five starts with Derek Carr vs. 70 YPG in three starts with Rattler.
Bijan Robinson – Has racked up 105, 143, 106, and 145 scrimmage yards over his last four games.
Start ‘Em
Drake London – Landed on his hip while catching a TD last week, finishing with 2/27/1 receiving. Prior to last week, London had earned at least 21% of the Falcons’ targets in seven straight games. He went for 6/64 receiving on 12 targets in this matchup back in Week 4.
Darnell Mooney – The Saints trading away Lattimore just made Mooney’s matchup infinitely easier. New Orleans played man coverage 44% of the time against Atlanta back in Week 4, but I can’t imagine that they take a similar approach here without Lattimore. This season, Mooney is averaging a 28% target share with 2.68 yards per route run when facing man coverage, but that dips to a 19.9% TS with 1.82 YPRR vs. zones.
Kyle Pitts – His no-show last week (1/11 receiving) is a reason why it’s so important to pay attention to usage first. Pitts’ first-read target share this season is just 10.4% (TE26). In fact, he has not earned more than 15% of the first-reads in a single game yet this season. He’s so heavily reliant on underneath checkdowns that it will continue to make him a shaky bet for the rest of the year. New Orleans allows the 11th-most yards per game to tight ends (56.1). Pitts’ target share spikes from 9% vs. man coverages to 16% vs. zones.
Stream ‘Em
Taysom Hill – Over his last two games since returning from a ribs injury, Hill has 9/39/1 rushing and 6/62 receiving (on 9 targets). Chris Olave’s absence just further solidifies the Saints' need to use Hill. He’s run a route on 39% and 42% of the Saints pass plays in Weeks 8-9, both of which marked new season-highs. In their four games together, Kamara (9 carries, 4 TDs) and Hill (4 carries, 3 TDs) have split work inside-the-10.
Sit ‘Em
Chris Olave – Unfortunately, he suffered another concussion after a brutal hit sandwiched in between two Panthers defenders on Sunday. His day was over after one catch for 13 yards. The hit could have been cleaner, but the safety was just trying to make a play on the ball. Blame should be placed on QB Derek Carr for putting his WR in that situation to begin with. That pass was never going to be completed in that window. This is Olave’s second concussion this season – and fifth known head injury in his career. He is set to miss multiple games, potentially. The Saints are in deep trouble after injuries have cleaned out their receiver depth chart. New Orleans’ season is already in the toilet after they fired HC Dennis Allen on Monday. Carr is a lame-duck QB. The Saints are headed towards a total rebuild in 2025.
Kirk Cousins – He’s right on the borderline as a potential streamer in 1-QB leagues. Atlanta has shifted more towards the run game (-4.9% pass rate under expectation) over the last month, which makes them the third-least pass-heavy team in this span. Through nine starts, Cousins has mixed in four top-12 scoring weeks among QBs, and he has 5 games outside of the top-20 entirely.
Derek Carr
Mason Tipton
Juwan Johnson
Marquez Valdes-Scantling
Cedrick Wilson
Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs
Must Start
Travis Kelce – Since Rashee Rice (knee, hamstring) was lost for the season in Week 4, Kelce leads all tight ends in target share (28.8%) and receptions per game (8.8). It’s borne out of necessity, but we’re back to the Turbo Kelce role, where he just vacuums short receptions and generates first downs. He’s averaging 17.1 PPR fantasy points per game in Weeks 4-9 after putting up just 5.0 FPG in Weeks 1-3 when they ran the offense around Rice (RIP). His recent production is not too far off from Kittle’s TE1 pace (18.0 FPG).
Start ‘Em
Kareem Hunt – In his five games as the Chiefs starting RB, Hunt has piled up 16, 28, 24, 22, and 28 touches with 60 or more scrimmage yards in every outing. Most importantly, Hunt has all of the TD equity in this backfield. Hunt leads the Chiefs in red-zone carries (25) over Steele (1) and Perine (1).
DeAndre Hopkins – Was second on the Chiefs in targets (9) for an 8/86/2 receiving result against the Buccaneers last week. Kansas City moved Nuk into the slot on 45% of his routes last week, and if that continues, it will be huge for his outlook in this matchup. Broncos CB Pat Surtain rarely goes into the slot to cover receivers. Hopkins will see a good bit of Surtain on Sunday, but the Chiefs showed enough creativity with his usage last week to remain optimistic. He deserves WR2 valuation at worst.
FLEX Plays
Courtland Sutton – He’s excelled in two premier matchups with 8/100 vs. Carolina and 7/122 vs. Baltimore in back-to-back weeks. This is a polar opposite spot in terms of his matchup. The Chiefs allow the second-fewest yards per game (66.1) to opposing outside wide receivers because they keep everything in front of them with two-high safety coverage (63% 2-hi frequency | 2nd-most). Sutton was held to 46 and 29 yards in two meetings vs. Kansas City last season.
Sit ‘Em
Javonte Williams – In his nine games, Williams has finished inside of the top-24 weekly scorers at RB just twice. HC Sean Payton said that he expects to use Audric Estime more down the stretch, threatening to throw a wrench in his volume overall. Williams is 32nd among running backs in team carry share (41.5%), so any potential volume loss will crater his outlook. This is a horrific matchup. The Broncos are 8.5-point road underdogs against the league’s best run defense. The Chiefs allow a league-low 50.9 yards per game on the ground.
Patrick Mahomes – Has finished as a top-10 scoring QB in fantasy football just twice in his last 17 games. Mahomes has largely been a replacement-level player in 1-QB leagues for a year now. Ideally, you have an option with more upside. Mahomes has completed 74.4% of his passes for 6.7 YPA, 5 TDs, and 1 INT in two easier matchups against the Buccaneers and Raiders over the last two weeks. When you play Denver, you had better be able to handle the blitz. The Broncos are sending extra rushers 36% of the time (third-most). Mahomes is 22nd-of-37 QBs in passer rating (83.6) and 18th in fantasy points per dropback (0.43) when blitzed.
Xavier Worthy – Woof. In a premier matchup, Worthy completely air-balled for a painful 0/0 on two targets. Worthy failed to get both feet in-bounds on a play where he was wide open up the boundary for a 30+ yard TD on the Chiefs’ opening possession, and then he basically didn’t get a single target for the entirety of the game. Kelce was already the top target earner here, and DeAndre Hopkins just passed Worthy with ease last week.
Bo Nix – SuperFlex only.
Jaleel McLaughlin
JuJu Smith-Schuster
Troy Franklin
Buffalo Bills at Indianapolis Colts
Must Start
Josh Allen – The Bills are the most pass-heavy team in the league in their last two games (+11.4% pass rate over expected), resulting in 841 passing yards (7 TDs, 2 INT) on 106 attempts from Allen. He averaged a career-low 193 passing yards per game in his previous six games until this recent change in their gameplan. The Colts give up the seventh-most passing fantasy points per game (15.2).
Jonathan Taylor – In his six games played, Taylor has handled 76% of the Colts snaps. Only Kyren Williams (88%) has a higher snap rate among running backs.
Start ‘Em
James Cook – Over the last three weeks, Cook has lost snaps to both Ray Davis and Ty Johnson, but he remains the clear lead back with 39 carries to Davis’ 15. The Bills' shift towards a pass-heavy approach will impact his rushing volume, but since we’re going to get increased usage in the passing game, it’s a great trade-off. Cook has eight receptions in his last 2 outings after he caught just 11 passes in the Bills' first six games.
Josh Downs – In three starts with Flacco under center, Downs has 22/195/1 receiving on 30 targets (15.8 PPR FPG). He looks like one of the best value picks in all of fantasy football as he continues to take over as the Colts WR1. Downs has earned a strong 34% of Flacco’s first-reads, while Michael Pittman and Adonai Mitchell (15.6% first-read share) are the clear secondary targets.
Dalton Kincaid – Will be relied upon more heavily this week with Cooper and Coleman both questionable to play with wrist injuries. Kincaid’s 76% route involvement last week was the second-highest mark of his season, and he earned eight targets as a result (4/32 receiving). Indianapolis allows the third-most receptions per game (6.3) to tight ends.
FLEX Plays
Khalil Shakir – When you face the Colts, you know you’re going to see a ton of Cover-3 zone. It’s what Indianapolis calls on 41% of their opponents pass plays (fourth-highest rate). This is an awesome spot. Shakir leads the Bills in targets per route run (0.33), first-read targets (31%), and yards per route run (2.78) when facing Cover-3 this season.
Sit ‘Em
Amari Cooper – Was a surprise late scratch with a wrist injury last week. Cooper has yet to be unleashed in a full-time role since being traded to Buffalo. His route participation ticked up from 34% in Week 7 to 62% in Week 8, but he is usually in the 85-95% range.
Keon Coleman – Didn’t practice on Wednesday (wrist).
Michael Pittman – Playing through a back injury.
Joe Flacco – SuperFlex only.
Alec Pierce and A.D. Mitchell
Curtis Samuel
Stash ‘Em
Ray Davis
Pittsburgh Steelers at Washington Commanders
Must Start
Jayden Daniels – Has finished as a top-12 scoring QB in fantasy football in 7-of-8 full starts (not shortened by injury). As of right now, Daniels is the only passer in NFL history to complete 70% of his throws for over 8 yards per pass attempt as a rookie.
Start ‘Em
Najee Harris – Has tallied at least 70 scrimmage yards in eight straight games to start his season, but he has just 2 TD to show for his consistent role. Harris has seen at least 16 touches in every game. The early returns on the QB change from Fields to Wilson look good. The Steelers scored points on 12-of-22 possessions (54.5%) vs. Jets and Giants before their bye week. Pittsburgh’s scoring rate with Fields was 41.7% (25-of-60 possessions ended in points).
George Pickens – Leads the Steelers in targets (14) for 9/185/1 receiving with Russell Wilson under center in Weeks 7-8. Pickens’ role by market share is terrific. He’s earned 36% of the first-reads and 44% of the air yards with Wilson. At least based on volume, Pickens’ role with Wilson (16.5 expected PPR points per game) is significantly better than it was with Fields (14.3 XFP/G).
FLEX Plays
Terry McLaurin – The WR15 in PPR points per game (15.2), McLaurin catches a tougher matchup with likely shadow coverage from Steelers top CB Joey Porter on Sunday. Porter is allowing just 0.17 fantasy points per route run against him, ninth-fewest among qualified outside CBs.
Brian Robinson and Austin Ekeler – Robinson was a surprise late scratch on Sunday after he was limited all week in practice with a hamstring injury. Hopefully, this is just a one-week absence, and Robinson can return to the field in Week 10 vs. Pittsburgh. Austin Ekeler was fantastic in place of Robinson, tallying up 83 scrimmage yards and a TD on just 14 touches. Chris Rodriguez (11/52 rushing) and Jeremy McNichols (8/20) both piled up early down carries as well. Washington was 63% run-heavy last week. It was their most run-heavy gameplan of the season (-8.3% pass rate under expectation). Robinson and Ekeler have played in five games together, in which Robinson (73) easily leads the way in carries over Ekeler (24). Most importantly, Robinson leads in the red zone (10 carries inside the 10) over Ekeler (3).
Sit ‘Em
Jaylen Warren – He’s only played in five full games this season that weren’t shortened by injuries. In these five games, Harris (2.95) leads Warren (2.16) in yards after contact and missed tackles forced (0.29 vs. 0.16) on a per-carry basis.
Russell Wilson – SuperFlex only.
Noah Brown – Set a season-high 76% route share last week. Brown has 13/207/1 receiving over his last four games, with at least 6 targets earned in three of those outings.
Zach Ertz
Pat Freiermuth
Mike Williams – The Steelers are desperate for perimeter receiver play opposite of Pickens, so Williams will at least get an opportunity for snaps quickly. We’ll see if he can earn targets. Williams has run 186 routes this season and earned just 21 targets (0.11 TPRR).
Van Jefferson
Calvin Austin
Minnesota Vikings at Jacksonville Jaguars
Must Start
Justin Jefferson – Might go for 200 yards if the Jaguars dare to play their usual 41% man coverage here. Jefferson has earned a whopping 38% of the targets and is averaging a lethal 4.73 yards per route run (third-best) when facing man-to-man this season.
Aaron Jones – The Vikings have ditched the whole “change of pace” RB thing and are playing Jones as a bell cow. He’s been on the field on at least 76% of the Vikings' snaps in four straight games.
Evan Engram – To the surprise of absolutely no one, Engram led the team in targets (10) in Week 9 without Christian Kirk (collarbone). Just six of those 10 targets were actually catchable, though. Even though his quarterback struggled last week, Engram’s 34.6% first-read target share signals a huge role down the stretch.
Start ‘Em
Sam Darnold – It certainly hasn’t been pretty at times, but Darnold is the QB11 in fantasy points per game (18.3). The deer-in-headlights sacks are back, but we’re still getting stellar efficiency here. Darnold’s 7.6% TD is second-best behind Lamar Jackson (7.8%), and he’s fifth-best in YPA (8.5). Jacksonville is allowing the second-most passing fantasy points per game (19.2), and they’ve given up a top-12 scoring QB in fantasy in 8-of-9 games. Because Justin Jefferson can get open at will, Darnold is crushing man coverage to the tune of 0.74 FP/dropback (fifth-best). Jacksonville deploys man coverage 41% of the time (second-most).
Brian Thomas – Despite hurting his shoulder in the previous game, Thomas was not limited at all in Week 9 against the Eagles with a 91% route share. He only earned three targets (2/22 receiving). Christian Kirk’s absence will be felt mightily this week. It leaves a huge opportunity available. Kirk leads the Jaguars in targets (31% share) when Lawrence has been blitzed this season, followed by Engram (23%), Davis (14%), and Thomas (11%). This is a great spot. The Vikings are allowing the third-most yards per game (122.3) to opposing outside receivers.
TJ Hockenson – As expected, Hockenson was slightly limited, with a 53% route involvement and four targets in his season debut (3/27 receiving). You don’t need me to tell you that this is a standout matchup. The Jaguars have been crushed for 30/353/4 receiving (on 38 targets) – 17.9 PPR FPG over the last five weeks.
FLEX Plays
Jordan Addison – In six games played, Addison is WR39 in PPR points per game (11.0) – tied with Tyreek Hill. What a season this has been. As always, Addison is on the board as a WR3/FLEX play, with the added boost in this matchup. Only Baltimore (+10.4) allows more schedule-adjusted FPG to opposing wideouts than Jacksonville (+8.5).
Sit ‘Em
Tank Bigsby and Travis Etienne – This backfield is headed toward a 1A/1B committee, with Bigsby as the lead on early downs and Etienne playing the majority of passing situations. Bigsby (8 carries, 15 routes) had a much larger role than Etienne (3 carries, 8 routes) did in Week 9. Of course, it was D’Ernest Johnston (what!?) getting the target with the game on the line last week. Lol. We should see Etienne mix in much more moving forward now that he’s over two midseason injuries (shoulder, hamstring). Both of these RBs are desperation FLEX plays. Minnesota is allowing the third-fewest rushing yards per game (78.6).
Trevor Lawrence – Likely out on Sunday (shoulder). It could be Mac Jones’ time. If it is, Lawrence will have finished as a top-10 scoring QB in fantasy football just seven times in his last 25 games played (28%). Lawrence just hasn’t shown a consistently high ceiling for our game. If we’re looking for positives here, he has been pretty solid against the blitz this season. That’s important for this week. The Vikings blitz opposing quarterbacks the second most often (38%). Lawrence is seventh in YPA (8.5), fourth-fastest in time to throw (2.30 seconds), and third-best in completion rate over expected (+9.1%) vs. blitzes.
Parker Washington
Gabe Davis
Cam Akers – Took over as the Vikings new #2 RB over Ty Chandler.
Jalen Nailor
New England Patriots at Chicago Bears
Start ‘Em
D’Andre Swift – Has at least 80 scrimmage yards in five straight games. Despite this offense mostly being a trainwreck, Swift is the RB17 in PPR points per game (15.5). Swift is one of the top RB2 plays again. New England is getting cleaned out for 124.6 rushing yards per game (second-most).
Rhamondre Stevenson – His fantasy stock is shooting upwards with Maye under center. This offense was lifeless just a few weeks ago. Over the last month, the Patriots have gotten out of the bottom. They’ve scored a TD on 23% of their possessions in Weeks 6-9, which is way up from 9.4% to open the season in Weeks 1-5. This big jump in offensive quality makes Stevenson a much more trustworthy RB2 for the rest of the season. He’s also re-earned his bell-cow role. Stevenson has played on 76% of the snaps over the last two weeks. Chicago is struggling to defend the run, allowing 5.1 YPC (fourth-most).
FLEX Plays
D.J. Moore, Keenan Allen, and Rome Odunze – At this point, playing Bears receivers in fantasy football is like punching yourself in the face and then wondering why you have a black eye afterwards. Moore has turned three straight ideal matchups (vs. JAX, at Was, at Ari) into 10/80 receiving on 18 targets. Well, only 11 of those 18 targets were actually catchable. This is another burnable matchup, but there’s no way to have any confidence here. Keenan Allen and Moore (32.3%) have both combined for the majority of the first-read targets in their last two outings since the bye week, followed by Odunze (22.6%). Unless their quarterback starts playing better, all three of these wideouts are low-floor WR3/FLEX options. Only Anthony Richardson’s catchable throw rate (61%) is worse than Caleb Williams’ (68%).
Demario Douglas – In the three games that Maye has played from start to finish, Douglas leads the Patriots in targets (20) for a 15/139/1 receiving result (11.6 PPR FPG). He’ll need all of the short-area looks that he can get this week because this is a worst-possible matchup against a Bears secondary that’s allowing a league-low -4.5 schedule-adjusted FPG below average to opposing slot receivers.
Stream ‘Em
Drake Maye – His rushing upside is completely undervalued. He has just one designed carry all season – what happens if the Patriots start layering that in? Maye is a terrific scrambler. In his starts, Maye has rushed for 19/197/1 (10.4 YPC!!) in 13 quarters worth of action. As a result, he’s averaging 0.50 fantasy points scored per dropback, which is low-end QB1 worthy in fantasy football. Maye has finished as the QB8, QB7, and QB12 in weekly scoring in the three full games that he’s finished. Chicago is a brutally tough matchup – only the New York Jets are allowing fewer passing fantasy points per game (9.7) than the Bears (9.8).
Hunter Henry – In Maye’s three full starts, Henry is second on the team in targets (17) for 15/142/1 receiving (11.7 PPR FPG). Henry and Douglas are the primary first-reads, with a 22% target share apiece. Chicago’s secondary is icing opposing receivers, but they’ve quietly been cracked for 24/279 receiving (on 31 targets) over the last three games by Jaguars, Commanders, and Cardinals TEs.
Sit ‘Em
Caleb Williams – After he built some momentum with strong starts before the bye, Williams has regressed severely in his last two starts (49% completions, 5.4 YPA, 9 sacks, 0 TDs, 1 turnover). His three usable weeks in fantasy football have come against the Colts, Jaguars, and Panthers basement-level secondaries. This is a decent matchup – the Patriots allow the ninth-most passing FP per dropback (0.42), but I can’t recommend streaming Williams in 1-QB leagues.
Cole Kmet – Targets earned in his six games with Moore, Allen, and Odunze – 1, 3, 4, 5, 1, and 0.
Kayshon Boutte
Kendrick Bourne
Antonio Gibson
Stash ‘Em
Roschon Johnson
Tennessee Titans at Los Angeles Chargers (4:05p ET)
Start ‘Em
J.K. Dobbins – Los Angeles shifting more pass-heavy in recent weeks hasn’t impacted Dobbins overall volume. The Chargers just keep giving him a bigger role. Over his last four games, Dobbins is seventh among RBs in snaps (74%) and RB13 in expected PPR points per game (15.6). Tennessee is playing good run defense – they’re only allowing 3.8 YPC (fourth-fewest) – but you’re continuing to roll out Dobbins as a high-floor RB2.
Tony Pollard – Even after he didn’t practice all week with a minor foot injury, Pollard handled a bell cow role with 85% of the snaps and 31 touches for 154 scrimmage yards in Week 9. Tyjae Spears (hamstring) hasn’t played in three weeks, but his return will eventually cut down Pollard’s role. With at least 18 touches in 7-of-8 games, Pollard remains a volume-based RB2.
Calvin Ridley – Ridley has earned a whopping 23 total targets and a massive 41% first-read target share over the last two weeks without DeAndre Hopkins for a 15/216 receiving result. At the very least, Ridley’s volume should be strong for the remainder of the season – the Titans don’t have anyone else on the roster worth scheming passes to. This is not a standout matchup, but we’re chasing another 8-9 targets as a WR2 here.
FLEX Plays
Ladd McConkey – McConkey has now earned 18% or more of the Chargers targets in every game so far, and he leads the team in first-read target share (25%) since the bye. Over the last four weeks, McConkey has 20/264/3 receiving (14.6 PPR FPG).
Quentin Johnston – In his five full games played that weren’t shortened by injury, Johnston has 15/260/4 receiving (13.1 PPR FPG). However, it is certainly a bit flukey. As Ryan Heath expertly pointed out, 44% of Johnston’s fantasy production has come on busted coverages. That’s obviously not sustainable. What is sustainable is the Chargers increased pass rate to give Johnston some viability as a lower end WR3. In their five full games together, McConkey has earned 30% of the first-read targets while Johnston (28%) is right behind him.
Stream ‘Em
Justin Herbert – Once again, the Chargers leaned more heavily on the pass in their third-straight game last week. Over the last month, Los Angeles is the 10th-most pass-heavy team (+3.0% pass rate over expected), tied with Kansas City. As a result, Justin Herbert has rejoined the land of the living in fantasy football. Herbert averages 33 pass attempts and 286.8 passing yards per game, with 5 TDs over his last four outings. He’s finished among the top-15 fantasy scorers at the position in each of his last three games. This aligns with Herbert as a potential streaming option in 1-QB leagues again.
Sit ‘Em
Tyjae Spears – Returning from a hamstring injury.
Josh Palmer
Will Dissly
Nick Westbrook-Ikhine
Mason Rudolph – Chargers D/ST is the best play on the slate.
Stash ‘Em
Kimani Vidal
Philadelphia Eagles at Dallas Cowboys (4:25p ET)
Must Start
Jalen Hurts – Dating back to the beginning of last season, Hurts has finished as a top-10 scoring QB in fantasy football at an unbelievably consistent rate — 20 of his last 24 starts (83%).
Saquon Barkley – Leads all RBs in scrimmage yards per game (133.9) over Henry (127.2) and Mixon (120.7).
Start ‘Em
A.J. Brown – Finally… some good injury news! A.J. Brown hurt his knee on his second and final reception before the first half ended against Jacksonville. Brown was able to practice on a limited basis on Wednesday as the Eagles believe that he avoided a major injury. He’s gone off for 21/408/3 receiving (19.9 PPR FPG) in his four healthy games this season. Dallas allows a league-high 2.4 yards per route run to opposing outside receivers, tied with the Jaguars and Rams for worst in the league.
CeeDee Lamb – Battling through a shoulder injury. If he’s able to suit up, then Lamb will be a high-end WR2 here. Dak Prescott (hamstring) is going on injured reserve, and he’ll miss at least the next four games. We’re going to get Cooper Rush under center for now. In five games with Rush in 2022, Lamb earned 32.9% of the Cowboys targets (41.2% first-read share) for 31/380/2 receiving (16.5 PPR FPG). According to our FP Data, 78.6% of Lamb's targets were catchable in this span, which is not bad. Dak has given Lamb a catchable pass 82.5% of the time this season.
DeVonta Smith – Did not practice on Wednesday (hamstring). As usual, Smith is right in the heart of the weekly WR2 discussion, with 15.2 PPR FPG (WR15). In the four games that Brown has played, Smith is second on the team in targets (20) and first-reads (29% share). Brown (29 targets) dominates the first reads with a massive 42% share.
Jake Ferguson – Even though he hasn’t scored a TD yet this year, Ferguson is the TE10 in fantasy points per game (10.2). Ferguson still does not have a target in the end-zone yet this year. That’s a fluke after he led the position in end-zone looks (12) last year. He hauled in two catches for 17 yards with Rush in his bullpen performance last week. The volume should remain decent enough to carry him as a lower end TE1.
FLEX Plays
Rico Dowdle – As expected, the Cowboys just unleashed Dowdle as their lead running back after messing around with dusty vets Ezekiel Elliott and Dalvin Cook. Last week, Dowdle set a new career- and season-high in snaps (72%). The QB change is obviously a huge net negative, but I do expect him to continue to run away with this starting job. He’s not generating many explosive plays, but Dowdle has quietly been pretty efficient with 5.3 yards per touch (13th-best, tied with Tyrone Tracy).
Sit ‘Em
Dallas Goedert – The Eagles starting TE missed his third straight game last week (hamstring). After having three weeks to get right, Goedert will play in Week 10 against Dallas. He’s off of the injury report. Philadelphia has only had their top three targets available for one game together this season – all of the way back in Week 1. Goedert (4/31 receiving on 5 targets in Week 1) is often the third read in the progression with Brown and Smith dominating looks. In fact, Goedert has managed to finish inside of the top-10 fantasy scorers among tight ends in just 4-of-15 games with Brown/Smith.
Jalen Tolbert
Jonathan Mingo
Ezekiel Elliott
Cooper Rush
Jahan Dotson
New York Jets at Arizona Cardinals (4:25p ET)
Must Start
Garrett Wilson – Over the last three weeks, Wilson leads the Jets in targets (27) over Adams (23) and Hall (15) for a 19/264/2 receiving result (19.8 PPR points per game). He’s earned 32% of the first-read targets, while Adams (29% FR share) isn’t too far behind. The breakout should continue here. Wilson is averaging 73.7 yards per game – easily a career-high. Arizona is allowing the eighth-most schedule-adjusted FPG above average (+2.6) to opposing receivers.
Trey McBride – All that he does is earn targets. McBride has earned 145 targets over his last 18 games since becoming a full-time player for a 111/1136/3 receiving result (13.9 PPR FPG). The Jets cornerbacks are tough, but their LB/S group has quietly allowed an efficient 26/262/1 receiving on 35 targets (11.6 PPR FPG) to tight ends over the last five weeks.
Start ‘Em
Breece Hall – Through nine games, Hall is the RB16 in PPR points per game (15.7), which is only a -9% scoring reduction compared to last season (17.1 FPG). While he certainly hasn’t been as explosive this year, Hall has compiled at least 17 touches and 80 scrimmage yards in 7-of-9 outings. Arizona is giving up the eighth-most scrimmage yards per game (148.9) to opposing RBs.
James Conner – Death, taxes, and Conner paying off ADP as a value RB2. At 29 years old, Conner is having one of the best years of his career. He leads all RBs in missed tackles forced per touch (0.41).
Davante Adams – The biggest change with Adams’ usage with the Jets is that they’re lining him up inside the slot (41%) more often than he did with the Raiders (29%). The result has been far more horizontally breaking routes where Adams is running away from defenders instead of vertical all of the time. Over the last three weeks, 48.3% of Adams’ routes have been horizontally breaking route concepts – which is way up from 37.5% with the Raiders. This should allow Adams to rack up receptions more often moving forward.
FLEX Plays
Marvin Harrison – This is another difficult matchup for Harrison after he was held to 2/34 receiving on 5 targets against the Bears last week. The Jets are holding opposing receivers to -5.3 schedule-adjusted FPG below average, fourth-fewest. At the very least, Harrison will get some single coverage this week. Harrison is earning 26% of the targets and averaging 2.77 yards per route run against 1-hi looks, but his efficiency drops off of the table when the defense plays two-high safety shell coverage (17% TS | 1.30 YPRR). The Jets play the 10th-most one-high safety coverage (57%), leaning largely on man-to-man (32% Cover-1 usage | fourth-most) with D.J. Reed and Sauce Gardner.
Sit ‘Em
Kyler Murray – At this point, Kyler is one of the most frustrating players to have in all of fantasy football. Arizona only needed to throw it 20 times to dust Chicago last week, which left Murray with a season-low 5.8 FP. Murray’s rushing is inconsistent, too. He has 3, 83, 14, 64, 19, and 6 yards on the ground in each of his last six outings. This is not an easy matchup. The Jets are allowing a league-low 9.7 passing FP per game. On the plus side, New York has allowed 3/46/1 rushing to Drake Maye and 8/59 to C.J. Stroud in their last two games to give Murray some upside as a scrambler, if he does take off.
Aaron Rodgers – SuperFlex only.
Michael Wilson
Greg Dortch
Tyler Conklin
Trey Benson
Stash ‘Em
Braelon Allen
Detroit Lions at Houston Texans (SNF)
Must Start
Joe Mixon – In the five games that he’s finished, Mixon has tallied RB2, RB2, RB4, RB5, and RB15 scoring weeks as the Texans bell cow. He’s racked up 178, 132, 124, 134, and 106 scrimmage yards. The Lions run defense is noticeably worse without Aidan Hutchinson over the last three weeks, allowing 119.7 rushing yards per game and 5.7 YPC.
Jahmyr Gibbs – The only RB that has finished as a top-24 weekly scorer in every game that they’ve played this season.
Start ‘Em
Amon-Ra St. Brown
Tank Dell – With Stefon Diggs and Nico Collins sidelined, Dell is the only show in town. He easily led the team in routes and targets (9) last week for a stellar 6/126 receiving result. Dell earned 31% of the first-read targets vs. Jets. Go right back to him as a WR2.
David Montgomery – Has scored 22 TDs in 24 full games with the Lions (including playoffs).
Jared Goff – Hasn’t attempted more than 25 passes in six straight games, which has largely left him on the sit list in this span, outside of good matchups vs. Vikings and Cowboys. I’m back in here, and for the next few weeks, for that matter. Detroit plays the AFC South in their next three games – Houston, Jacksonville, and Indianapolis. Over his last six games, Goff has been lights out for an absurd 83% completion rate and 219.3 passing yards per game (10.3 YPA) and a 13:1 TD-to-INT ratio. If Houston can push Detroit to stay in a close game and actually throw a bit more – like the spread implies (DET -3.5) – then Goff is going to pay off as a QB1 here. The Texans allow the 10th-most passing fantasy points per game (15.1).
C.J. Stroud – It hasn’t been a pretty month for Stroud without his top wideout Nico Collins. Over his last four games, Stroud has completed just 56% of his passes for 188.5 yards per game (6.3 YPA). This is after his completion rate was a nice 69% for 277 YPG (7.8 YPA) with Collins in Weeks 1-5. Stroud has been on the sit list for weeks, and it’s been deserved. He’s finished as the fantasy QB14, QB29, QB25, and QB19 in weekly scoring without Collins. However, there are two things working in Stroud’s favor this week (even though he likely won’t have Collins again). First, this Lions pass rush has struggled to get home without EDGE Aidan Hutchinson. Over their last three games, Detroit’s sack rate has slipped to just 4.3% after it was 6.6% in Weeks 1-6. The Lions are so good offensively that it’s forcing their opponents to throw a ton against them – Detroit is facing the second-most pass attempts per game (38.3). The potential shootout appeal in this game (49 over/under) has Stroud back on the low end of the QB1 radar.
FLEX Plays
Jameson Williams – After serving his two-game suspension, Williams is back for Week 10, and he will suit up vs. Houston. It’s a great spot to fire him back up as a boom-or-bust WR3 against a Texans secondary that just got shredded by Garrett Wilson (9/90/2 receiving) and Davante Adams (7/91/1). Through six games, Williams has 17/361/3 receiving and added 4/32 rushing for 12.4 PPR FPG (WR33). He’s earned a strong 25% of the first-read targets, which trails Amon-Ra St. Brown (33%). Williams leads the Lions in air yards (33% share) by a whisker over St. Brown (31%) thanks to his 14.4-yard average depth of target.
Sit ‘Em
Sam LaPorta – In six games played with Jameson Williams on the field, LaPorta has earned just 15 total targets (14/224/1 receiving). His 8.4% target share (with Williams) is 34th among TEs. The volume just isn’t there for this passing offense, and LaPorta is now the third read in most progressions after St. Brown and Williams. Houston hasn’t played many good tight ends all year, but they’re holding the position to league-lows in yards (20.1) and receptions (2.7) per game.
Dalton Schultz – Has not finished better than TE19 in a single game this season. Detroit is the fourth-toughest matchup by schedule adjusted FPG below average (-4.5) to tight ends.
Robert Woods
John Metchie
Xavier Hutchinson
Dameon Pierce
Miami Dolphins at Los Angeles Rams (MNF)
Must Start
Kyren Williams
De’Von Achane – In the three full games that Tua has played this season, Achane is second on the Dolphins in targets (22) just behind Hill (25). Achane’s 21/184/2 receiving in these three contests would make him the WR9 in PPR points per game (17.1) – tied with A.J. Brown. Oh, and he’s getting goal-line work. In their three games with Tua under center, Mostert (5) holds the slight lead in inside-the-10 carries over Achane (3).
Tyreek Hill – In his last 20 games with Tua under center, Hill has 141 receptions, 2,143 yards, and 15 TDs (on 205 targets). That’s 22.3 PPR fantasy points per game. This is clearly a matchup for Hill to finally get loose. Los Angeles is allowing a league-high 2.4 yards per route run to opposing outside receivers.
Cooper Kupp – In his three full games played, Kupp has piled up 30/264/2 receiving (23.2 PPR FPG).
Start ‘Em
Puka Nacua – This has been a year to forget so far for Nacua after multiple knee injuries and a Week 9 ejection for throwing a punch have harpooned his season. The good news? Stafford is funneling the ball to Nacua when he’s actually on the field. Nacua has run 54 routes this season, and has been targeted 17 times for a strong 12/152 receiving result.
Stream ‘Em
Matthew Stafford – Over his last 10 games with Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua on the field, Stafford has completed 66% of his throws for 278.9 passing yards per game (7.5 YPA) and a 23:7 TD-to-INT ratio. He’s averaging 19.6 fantasy points per game in this span, which is worthy of top-8 scoring on a weekly basis. Miami has allowed 21 or more FP in back-to-back games to Josh Allen and Kyler Murray in games that combined for 55 and 57 total points scored.
Tua Tagovailoa – Over the last three combined seasons, Tua is a replacement-level QB16 in fantasy points per game (16.4). The small sample on Tua has been more of the same this season. He’s finished as the QB10, QB23, and QB18 in fantasy on a weekly basis. Typically, we’re looking for more upside in 1-QB leagues, but this matchup and potential high-scoring game is too good. The Rams are getting shredded for a league-high 8.5 pass YPA and the third-most passing FP per dropback (0.48). Tua is in play as a streamer this week.
Jonnu Smith – He’s right on the fringe of fantasy relevance. Jonnu has at least six targets in 4 straight games, and he’s earning more playing time. His 77% route share in Week 9 marked a season-high. If you’re looking for a streamer at tight end, then Smith is in play. Beyond his increasing role, this matchup is good, too. The Rams allow the sixth-most yards per game (59.3) to tight ends.
Sit ‘Em
Jaylen Waddle – In his three full games with Tua under center, Waddle has slipped to fourth in targets (13% share) behind Hill (24%), Achane (21%), and Smith (14%). Yikes. His volume has simply fallen off of the map. Waddle is averaging 0.17 targets per route run – easily a career-low. Between Achane’s emergence as a receiver and Smith’s increasing role, Waddle’s targets per route run have dipped by -59% year-over-year. Waddle’s TPRR was 0.29 last season. The only good thing in Waddle’s corner here is this matchup.
Raheem Mostert – Now that Achane has the clear lead in this backfield, Mostert is a TD-dependent FLEX.
Demarcus Robinson
Tutu Atwell
Colby Parkinson
Jaylen Wright
