2024's 69 Stats

I’ve published over 80,000 words of fantasy football player analysis and draft strategy on the site this summer between Yards Created, the Underdog Best Ball Draft Guide, the DraftKings Best Ball Guide, the SuperFlex Strategy Guide, and my Tiers-150. In total, that’s nearly the equivalent of Harry Potter and the Chamber of Secrets in word count.

In this article, I’ll give you “69” of my best, dankest, and most actionable stats. I’ve saved my best for last. There may or may not be more than 69 stats in here, though. Don’t count.

What is certain is that 98% of the statistics you will read came from the Fantasy Points Data Suite. The other 2% are from Pro Football Reference. If you don’t think these stats are interesting enough… well then. Fine. I challenge you to come up with your own. It’s easy enough with our tools and the incredible filtering system.

There will be a few players where it seems like you can’t afford to not draft them in fantasy after you read their statistical profile. Conversely, a few of these stats might make you want to avoid a player. I’m merely here to convey the best stats possible. This article is just the end result of many late-night research sessions this summer. Our staff’s projections, rankings, and cheat sheets are the final call. You should make sure you’re subscribed.

For way more information like what you’re about to read below, check out my Top-150 Tiers column. I walk through your round-by-round fantasy draft strategy intertwined with our projections, aggregate ADP, and many of these stats.

On to the stats.

Arizona Cardinals

1a. Since his rookie season in 2019, Kyler Murray is QB5 in fantasy points per game (20.2) and fourth in rushing yards per game (37.7).

1b. In his first year back from an ACL injury, Murray was QB12 in FP/Dropback (0.50) and QB10 in FPG (18.9).

1c. Murray also should see an uptick in designed carries now that he’s fully healthy. He averaged 3.5 per game last season (sixth-most among QBs).

1d. Murray averaged 4.3 designed carries per game back in 2021 and 3.8 in 2022.

2. Murray’s best career fantasy season was in 2020 when he had bluechip WR DeAndre Hopkins in his prime. If Marvin Harrison can raise the ceiling in a similar fashion, why in the world has Murray’s ADP sunk to QB9?

2b. Receivers taken as early as Harrison in the NFL Draft (#4 overall) are typically productive as rookies, but only a few turn in WR2 or better fantasy seasons in their first year. Harrison has as good of a profile as Ja’Marr Chase and Julio Jones.

2c. Since 2010, there have been 15 wideouts taken in the top-10 overall in the NFL Draft. Five of these 15 WRs went on to finish top 24 or better in fantasy points per game (Half-PPR) as rookies, with Ja’Marr Chase (WR5 finish) leading the group. Harrison has the upside for a similar first season. Julio Jones (WR11 finish as a rookie), AJ Green (WR12), Mike Evans (WR13), and Jaylen Waddle (WR21) were the other four rookies to finish top-24.

3. James Conner was awesome on the ground last season. Only Christian McCaffrey and Kyren Williams averaged more rushing yards per game than Conner did. He was extremely efficient on a per-carry basis as well. Per FP Data, only De’Von Achane (3.7) and Jaylen Warren (3.5) averaged more yards after contact per carry than Conner (3.4).

3b. Conner missed his usual handful of games and was the RB13 in PPR FPG (15.5).

3c. He’s now finished as the RB7, RB17, RB27, RB9, RB9, and RB13 in fantasy points per game over the last six seasons.

4. However, Conner way overperformed based on his role last season. It’s a red flag for regression. His role was only worth 13.5 expected PPR FPG (RB19) because he was so lightly used in the passing game.

4b. A total of 31 RBs ran a route on a higher rate of their team’s pass attempts than Conner (36%). Enter Trey Benson. Now 29 years old, Conner has missed at least three games in five of the last 6 seasons.

4c. Recall that targets are worth 2.55x more fantasy points than a carry for running backs in PPR leagues.

4d. Conner averaged a career-low 12.7 receiving yards per game last season. Over his five previous seasons, he added 25.6 YPG receiving.

5. Across 10 starts from Weeks 8-18 after taking over for vet TE Zach Ertz, McBride led all TEs in target share (26%), first-reads (32% share), he was fourth in yards per game (65.5), and fifth in yards per route run (2.16).

5b. McBride’s 15.0 PPR FPG in this 10-game stretch would have bested Kelce as the TE1 in points per game, had he sustained over the course of the season.

5c. He finished as a top-12 scoring TE on a weekly basis in 8-of-10 games with six finishes inside the top-8 in this span.

5d. Of course, Marvin Harrison is going to command targets, and McBride’s lofty target share is sure to fall. He’s just good at the game, though. And you don’t have to pay an early second-rounder to get him like you do with Kelce and LaPorta.

Atlanta Falcons

6. Falcons QB Kirk Cousins has thrown for at least 4,000 yards in seven out of his nine seasons as a starter.

6b. His 2019 season (3,603 yards in 15 games) and last year’s injury-shortened campaign (2,331 yards in eight games) stand out as the two lone exceptions.

7. Cousins has delivered a catchable, accurate pass on at least 77% of pass attempts in three straight seasons, and he peaked at 81.4% last year. That 81.4% mark was just barely behind Dak Prescott (81.5%) for the league lead.

7b. For reference, Atlanta’s quarterbacks threw an accurate pass just 72.3% of the time last season. That ranked 30th. It was, unfortunately, an “improvement”, though. In 2022, Atlanta’s QBs gave their receivers a catchable ball 71.8% of the time.

7c. Last year, London averaged just 5.2 catchable targets per game (WR33). Kendrick Bourne saw more catchable looks (5.4 per game). It was not any better in his rookie campaign (5.0 CTGT per game – WR40).

8. Along with the huge upgrade under center, the Falcons are obviously going to get out of the basement in pass rate. Over the last two seasons under former HC Arthur Smith, the Falcons ranked 32nd (-5.5%) and 31st (-11.2%) by pass rate under expectation. We don’t know exactly what new OC Zac Robinson’s tendencies will be exactly, but one thing is for sure – the Falcons passing offense will finally be unleashed.

Baltimore Ravens

9. Before suffering a high ankle injury in Week 11, Mark Andrews was — once again — leading all tight ends in route share (79%), he was first in targets per route run (0.29), and he led the position in fantasy points per route run (0.54)..

9b. Andrews was actually earning more targets last season than he was in 2022 when he tied for third in targets per route run (0.26) and he finished fourth in FP/RR (0.47).

9c. Andrews’ 14.6 PPR fantasy points per game last season would have trailed Kelce by two-tenths of a point as the TE3 by FPG.

9d. These are his career finishes (starting in 2019): TE5 (13.9 PPR FPG), TE4 (12.2 FPG), TE1 (17.5 FPG), TE3 (12.6), and TE3 (14.6 FPG – last season).

9e. Ahem. That’s five straight top-5 seasons by FPG.

9f. Zay Flowers saw a 24.3% first-read target share (WR35) and averaged just 9.3 Half-PPR per game (WR43) in 10 games with Andrews.

9g. Flowers scored 5 of his 7 TDs in games where Andrews missed.

9h. Lamar Jackson ranks 30th, 31st, 19th, 38th, and 35th in pass attempts per game in his career (since 2019). The passing volume in this offense is never going to be high enough to consistently sustain multiple high-end fantasy options.

10. Derrick Henry ran behind the second-worst offensive line by adjusted yards before contact per attempt (1.03) last season in Tennessee.

10b. Despite this, Henry just posted top-10 marks by yards after contact. Again. This marked Henry’s third straight season inside the top 10 in YAC per carry, and he actually increased his explosive runs (of 15 or more yards) year over year.

Year	YAC/Carry (rank)	MTF/Carry (rank)	Explosive Run%
2023	3.06 (6th-of-41 RBs)	0.23 (14th)	5.7% (6th)
2022	3.24 (8th-of-37 RBs)	0.18 (19th)	4.3% (20th)
2021	3.17 (9th-of-41 RBs)	0.20 (12th)	4.1% (16th)

10c. In this system, Henry is dripping with TD upside. Gus Edwards just cashed in 30 carries inside-the-10 (sixth-most among RBs) for 13 TDs last season. Only Jalen Hurts scored more rushing TDs inside-the-10, with 14.

10d. Back in 2019, Mark Ingram finished as the RB11 in PPR FPG at 30 years old attached to Lamar.

10e. The only thing I question here is Henry’s ceiling in the passing game. Over the last five seasons, the Ravens RBs rank 30th (2019), 31st (2020), 29th (2021), 30th (2022), and 31st (2023) in receptions. Not great!

Buffalo Bills

11. With Stefon Diggs gone, I suspect the Bills will lean more on the run than we’re accustomed to with Buffalo. Their pass rate dipped massively on first downs last season after OC Joe Brady took over:

11b. From Weeks 1-10 (OC Dorsey), the Bills pass rate was 58.2% (fourth-highest).

11c. From Weeks 11 on (OC Brady), the Bills had a 38.8% pass rate on first-downs (third-lowest).

11d. After the OC change to Brady, the Bills went from 5th in pass rate over expectation (+7.1%) in Weeks 1-10 to a lowly 25th (-1.8%) from Week 11 and into the playoffs.

12. Cook became just the 11th RB to have at least 200 carries in a single season but score two or fewer TDs since 2010. His role just wasn’t that valuable overall – he was the RB27 in expected fantasy points – because Josh Allen hogs all of the touchdowns.

12b. Allen has scored 22 TDs on 53 carries inside-the-10 since 2021. That’s a 41.5% conversion rate.

12c. Meanwhile, Bills running backs have converted just 20 TDs on their combined 101 inside-10 carries (19.8%).

12d. Worryingly, Cook ranked RB52 in snap rate inside-the-5 (goal-line) last season at 35%.

12e. The Bills signed Latavius Murray off of the sofa and handed the ball to him 12 times at the goal line last season. Cook had five goal-line totes. Is Cook going to take those carries this year? Or, will Ray Davis mix in?

12f. The sample on Cook’s scoring ability has been terrible. He’s handled 22 carries inside-the-10 in his career and has one TD to show for it.

12e. Since 2019, the Bills RB group has ranked among the bottom-12 teams in receptions in five of the last 6 seasons. They’ve never ranked higher than 17th. This is just another Josh Allen thing. He’s (correctly) going to take off and scramble if the pocket breaks down – not check down.

Carolina Panthers

13. The upside case for the Panthers centers around HC Dave Canales elevating Bryce Young after a horrific rookie season. Carolina’s offense was non-functional and impossible to watch – disjointed, slow, and their receivers were terrible. The main issue stemmed from zero continuity and consistency along the offensive line. Young saw near league-worst protection, with his offensive line giving up a 40% pressure rate (eighth-highest). Carolina has completely uprooted their interior line by spending big on stud G Robert Hunt.

13b. The Panthers 13.9 points per game was the seventh-lowest scoring campaign for any offense since 2010, tied with the Patriots.

13c. By implied totals, we expect the Panthers scoring to progress by 5.7 points per game this season. It can’t get much worse. Carolina also benefits from great strength of schedule for their passing attack (third-best) and RBs (sixth-best).

Chicago Bears

14. Since 1998, Caleb Williams is one of just six QBs in NCAA history to average over 9 yards per pass attempt with a TD rate of 8% or higher and an INT rate of 1.5% or lower in their career.

14b. The other 5 QBs to meet those marks are CJ Stroud, Marcus Mariota, Joe Burrow, Justin Fields, and Hendon Hooker.

15. Over the last three combined seasons, D.J. Moore is the WR9 in YPRR (2.82) on all targets that were not designed (like screens). This just marginally trails CeeDee Lamb (2.90) and Brandon Aiyuk (2.84). Shoutout Dan Whisner for the FP Data pull.

15b. Moore’s catchable target rate (74.7%) is 56th-of-69 WRs with at least 150 targets since 2021. Moore has literally been one of the top-10 most efficient receivers despite getting garbage QB play regularly.

15c. Need I remind you that Moore was the WR3 in all of fantasy football in Half-PPR points per game (17.6) in Justin Fields’ starts last season? Only Hill and Lamb put up more FPG.

15d. No matter the quarterback or the scheme, Moore has always commanded the ball. He’s earned at least 30% of his team’s first-read targets in each of the last three seasons, finishing as the WR4 (2023) > WR19 (2022) > WR3 (2021) in FR target share. The Bears have added significant target competition for Moore with the likes of Keenan Allen and Rome Odunze, but our projections are that Moore will lead the team in routes.

16. Keenan Allen made me look foolish en route to a WR3 finish in FPG (21.1 PPR) last season. Of course, his late-season injury harpooned what was an incredible run.

16b. Prior to last year’s explosion, Allen had scored between 16.0 and 17.8 PPR FPG for six straight seasons from 2017 to 2022.

16c. Allen has now finished as a top-12 WR in FPG in eight straight seasons (excluding 2016).

16d. Allen showed no signs of skill degradation after ranking 8th in separation score (ASS) among 93 qualified WR last season.

17. Rome Odunze is one of 9 WRs to eclipse 2.5 yards and 0.45 first downs on a per-route basis while lining up primarily outside since 2019. The other eight WRs to meet this mark are Marvin Harrison Jr., Troy Franklin, CeeDee Lamb, Ja’Marr Chase, Chris Olave, Devonta Smith, Tee Higgins, and Marquise Brown. Bullish. H/T FballInsights.

Cincinnati Bengals

18. Over the last three combined seasons, Joe Burrow is the QB5 in fantasy points per game, trailing only QB1 Josh Allen, QB2 Jalen Hurts, QB3 Patrick Mahomes, and QB4 Lamar Jackson.

18b. In this span, Burrow is third in passing yards per game with 271.3. That trails only Patrick Mahomes (285.4 YPG) and Justin Herbert (274.2).

18c. Burrow has been a stud from an efficiency standpoint, too. He ranks fourth-best in touchdown rate (5.6%) – behind only Aaron Rodgers (5.9%), Dak Prescott (6.1%), and Brock Purdy (7.2%) since 2021. He ranks fifth-best in YPA (7.6).

18d. The Bengals' pass rate over expectation has risen in three straight seasons in Burrow’s starts. In 2021, they were 10th (+4.4%). Two years ago, their PROE rose to +9.6% (second-highest). Last year? Well, well, well. Their pass rate shot up to +11.2% in Weeks 1-10.

18e. Only the Chiefs were more pass-heavy (+11.7% pass rate over expected) than the Bengals to start last year. Keep in mind, Burrow was not 100% healthy to start the season (calf).

19. Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins have played in 37 games together with Joe Burrow in their careers. Their first-read target share in those games:

• Chase – 31.5% (would rank WR13 last season behind Justin Jefferson)

• Higgins – 25.1% (WR32 tied with Calvin Ridley)

19b. In these 37 games, Chase averages 18.0 PPR points per game, while Higgins puts up 14.2 FPG. For reference, this is equivalent to last year’s WR6 and WR22 in per-game output.

19c. Before Joe Burrow (wrist) was lost for the season, Chase was averaging career-highs in receptions (7.7) and yards per game (91.2) in Weeks 1-10 (nine games together).

19d. The Bengals are projected to score more points (24.8 implied PPG), and they’re favored in more games (13) than the Texans (24.2 implied PPG | favored in 10 games). There should not be a 2-round gap between C.J. Stroud and Burrow in ADP.

Cleveland Browns

20. Deshaun Watson has made 11 full starts over the last two seasons, in which he’s averaged just 201.5 passing yards per game (QB30).

20b. Aidan O’Connell averaged 201.6 YPG across 11 appearances last season.

20c. Watson averaged 269.2 YPG in his first four years in Houston.

20d. Amari Cooper has actually averaged fewer fantasy points per game (13.5) in Watson’s starts than with the Browns backups (15.9 FPG).

20e. David Njoku has averaged fewer targets (5.5 per game) and PPR points (8.9 per game) across Deshaun Watson’s 10 full starts than with the Browns backup QBs (7.4 T/G | 13.0 PPR FPG).

20f. Njoku had a Linsanity run with Joe Flacco last season in which he put up 18.6 PPR FPG over his final five games. This wasn’t a fluke. Njoku finally put it all together after showing flashes of immense talent mired by inconsistency.

20g. Njoku (7.48) was just barely edged out by Kittle (7.51) for the position lead in yards after the catch per reception.

Dallas Cowboys

21. CeeDee Lamb (23.8 PPR FPG) just edged out Tyreek Hill (23.7 FPG) as the WR1 last season.

21b. He got off to a little bit of a slow start, but closed out the regular season on one of the best runs by a receiver we’ve seen in NFL history.

21c. In 13 games from Weeks 6-19 (including playoffs), Lamb earned a ridiculous 12.5 targets and averaged 115.5 receiving yards per game.

21d. For reference, 12.5 targets per game – over the course of a full season – would equate to sixth-most by a WR in a single year all-time.

21e. If Lamb were to sustain his 27.3 PPR points per game in this stretch from Week 6-19 last season, it would easily be the best fantasy football season ever by a wide receiver.

21f. Jerry Rice has the two best individual seasons by a receiver in fantasy football history with 26.3 FPG (1987) and 25.9 FPG (1995).

22. Dak Prescott has finished as the QB10, QB13, QB16, QB2, QB1, QB10, QB11, and QB5 (last season) in his fantasy career.

22b. Dak’s pass attempts went up from 32.8 to 34.7 per game last season as Dallas morphed into a top-6 team in pass rate over expectation. The only reason that Prescott’s volume didn’t go bananas was because their defense was so good and gave them so many leads last season.

22c. Dallas (+8.4% over expected) actually led the NFL in pass rate by one-tenth of a point over Kansas City (+8.3%) from Weeks 8-18.

22d. The Cowboys personnel choices at RB tell you all that you need to know about their approach this season. They’re going to sling it.

Denver Broncos

23. Here is how Javonte Williams stacked up next to Jaleel McLaughlin and Samaje Perine in yards per carry and success rate by blocking scheme, according to Fantasy Points Data:

23b. Yikes.

23c. It’s fair to wonder if the burst and elusiveness that made us fall in love with him at UNC is no longer there. Williams’ 0.14 missed tackles forced per carry ranked a lowly 44th-of-49 RBs.

23d. The Broncos backfield is clear-cut right now. Williams will play on 50-60% of early-downs with Jaleel McLaughlin mixing in heavily in passing situations. The duo split snaps 11 to 9 – in favor of McLaughlin – on Nix’s 20 preseason snaps in Week 2. Rookie RB Audric Estime is the direct backup to the early-down role.

Detroit Lions

24. After returning from a mid-season hamstring injury in Week 10, Jahmyr Gibbs went on to average 15.1 Half-PPR points per game (RB5) in a split backfield with David Montgomery (12.3 FPG | RB20).

24b. From Week 10 on (through the playoffs), Gibbs played on 54% of the snaps compared to 44% for Montgomery.

24c. Montgomery saw more carries (164 to 134) in these 12 games together, but Gibbs earned far more targets (52 to 20).

24d. Targets are worth 2.55x more fantasy points than a carry for running backs in PPR leagues.

24e. Crucially, Gibbs made up ground on Montgomery in the red zone. David Montgomery led the duo with 36 carries (8 TDs) by a slim margin over Jahmyr Gibbs – 35 RZ carries (10 TDs).

24f. Montgomery had more goal-line inside 5 carries (19 to 10), but Gibbs was trending up with red-zone work to close out the year.

25. The Lions are second (25.7) ahead of the Chiefs (25.5) in implied points per game by a tiny margin. Detroit is in a tier of its own along the offensive line with the league’s best unit, per former NFL scout Scott DiBenedetto. Combined with the 7th-easiest season-long strength of schedule for QBs and RBs, Detroit is set up incredibly well to continue as a top fantasy offense.

26. Amon-Ra St. Brown has earned at least seven targets in 34 of his last 37 games (including playoffs) dating back to the end of his rookie season in 2021.

26b. St. Brown has finished WR9 (34.9%) and WR7 (33.9%) in first-read target share over the last two seasons.

26c. In fact, the only receiver to be targeted at a higher rate on their routes than St. Brown (0.31) over the last two seasons is Tyreek Hill (0.35 targets per route run).

27. Sam LaPorta's 239.3 PPR points scored were the most ever by a rookie TE in NFL history – by a 38.5-point margin!

27b. That would have been the 12th-most total PPR points in rookie season by a WR all-time: Randy Moss (306.7), Ja'Marr Chase (304.6), Puka Nacua (298.5), Odell Beckham Jr. (295), Anquan Boldin (282.7), Justin Jefferson (274.2), Michael Thomas (255.7), Jaylen Waddle (245.8), Mike Evans (245.1), Michael Clayton (244.3), and Terry Glenn (243.4).

Intermission 1

The fourth-best hitter in baseball – for average – is Padres 1B Luis Arraez (.310). He’s arguably the most consistent hitter in MLB and he’s “failing” to get a hit 69% of the time. He has one major problem, though. Arraez has basically zero power. He’s hit just 4 home runs across 536 plate appearances this season (as of 8/29). There are 280 hitters in MLB with more HR than Arraez.

You’re probably thinking… Why does this matter? This is a fantasy football article. I don’t want to think about baseball!

Arraez is a statistical analogy of how to think about players in your fantasy football leagues. Yes, Arraez hits a lot of singles. Yes, this means that Arraez also produces a lot of runs. Duh, he’s on base a lot. But, what is his upside, really? By wins above replacement, Arraez (0.8) is the 401st most-valuable player in MLB because extra-base hits and home runs change baseball games; singles do not.

Do you know what changes games in fantasy football? Home run hitters. When Christian McCaffrey drops a 40.3 FP piece and then 28 FP the next week and then 22.5 more FP in a third-straight week – it won't really matter that your RB2 is a pesky .310-hitter with no power. You have the NFL equivalent of Aaron Judge in CMC.

Seek upside. This will always be a forward-thinking game won by players that are outliers. Don’t hedge. Seek out home run production. Channel your inner Aaron Judge. Or perhaps more appropriately, channel your inner Kyle Schwarber. Go to the plate thinking: Homer, Walk, or Strikeout. You’ll need to hit 1-2 singles across your 15-16 plate appearances, but a lot of base hits don’t add up to wins.

Draft MOAR Rashee Rice.

Speaking of more. MOAR STATS. Onward…

Green Bay Packers

28. Jordan Love closed the final 12 games of 2023 with 261.1 passing yards per game (7.83 YPA) and a stellar 26:5 TD-to-INT ratio.

28b. This is not taking anything away from him at all. Love put up 20.3 FPG (QB5) in this stretch and was still 1.8 FPG away from top-3 levels, further highlighting how hard it is for pocket passers to truly compete with the likes of Allen, Jackson, and Hurts at their peak.

29. Josh Jacobs scored -4.4 fewer Half-PPR points than he should have based on expected fantasy points. Among the 49 running backs with at least 100 carries, only Austin Ekeler (-4.9 FPG below expected) and Tony Pollard (-4.6 FPG) were more unlucky/inefficient.

29b.He just was not the same runner last season. Jacobs fell to just 2.29 yards after contact per carry after he crushed two years ago to the tune of 3.23 YAC per carry (8th-best) two years ago.

29c. According to our FP Data, Jacobs was arguably the best running back in the game in 2022. He was absolutely stellar in the Raiders' zone-blocking system, averaging 4.83 YPC and a 66% success rate on those carries (the best). Last year, those figures cratered to a lowly 3.36 YPC (and a 49% success rate).

30. Packers HC Matt LaFleur has not given a single RB more than 50% of the team’s carries since 2019 (Aaron Jones – 57%).

30b. His lead RB has averaged between 48% to 42% of the total carries in four-straight seasons.

30c. This is Green Bay’s backfield usage – by snaps – since LaFleur became the head coach:

• 2019 – Aaron Jones (62% snap rate) | Jamaal Williams (35%)

• 2020 – Jones (52%) | Williams (40%)

• 2021 – Jones (60%) | Dillon (42%)

• 2022 – Jones (58%) | Dillon (48%)

• 2023 – Dillon (51%) | Jones (49%)

31. Romeo Doubs (72%) and Christian Watson (67%) led the Packers WR/TE rotation in route share followed by Luke Musgrave (59%), Reed (57%), Dontayvion Wicks (33%), and Tucker Kraft (25%) in their eight games together.

31b. Doubs (21%) and Watson (20%) split the plurality of first-read targets, followed by Reed (15%), and Musgrave (14%).

Houston Texans

32. In their eight full games together last season, Nico Collins led Tank Dell in first-read target share by a 28% to 22% margin. Robert Woods was the third WR with a 20% FR share.

32b. Collins averaged 85.1 receiving yards per game (WR8) while Dell put up 74.5 YPG (WR13).

32c. Collins averaged 2.96 yards per route run (WR4) while Dell averaged 2.50 YPRR (WR11).

32d. Collins also saw more designed targets (7) than Dell (1).

32e. Dell finished as a top-24 PPR WR in 6-of-9 games that he finished last season.

32f. Collins was a top-24 WR in 8-of-13 games with Stroud.

32g. Last year, Collins (59% route share), Woods (55%), and Dell (50%) rotated when the Texans went into 12-personnel (1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR). We’ll likely see a similar distribution this season with Stefon Diggs in the fold and Dell as the most likely to sit out in some 2-TE sets.

33. Diggs’ efficiency really wasn’t as bad as you remember. He still averaged 1.96 yards per route run – the GOAT stat – across 19 games (including playoffs). This ranked 33rd-of-99 WRs with at least 250 routes. Impressive? No. Washed? Hardly.

33b. In 2022, Diggs ranked 9th-of-98 WRs in YPRR (2.50), and he was 22nd-best receiver the year prior (1.89 YPRR).

33c. Last season, Tank Dell led all receivers in ASS (average separation score) at 0.26. Nico Collins was 10th-best (0.19 ASS). Do you know who was 11th-best?

33d. That’d be Diggs (0.18 ASS).

Indianapolis Colts

34. In four games under center, Richardson put up 0.76 fantasy points per dropback. For reference, this would have easily led all QBs if he had sustained that rate over the course of 14-15 games. It’s highly unlikely that Richardson will remain this efficient, however. It does highlight just how lethal these dual-threat QBs are in fantasy when it all works.

34b. Josh Allen led all QBs in FP/DB (0.64) again last season. Jalen Hurts was QB1 in FP/DB two years ago (0.71).

34c. In his four starts, Richardson averaged 4.5 designed carries per game. This was fourth-most among all quarterbacks, trailing only Lamar Jackson (5.1), Justin Fields (6.2), and Jalen Hurts (6.4).

34d. Richardson led all QBs in yards per carry-on designed runs (5.5), followed by Jackson (4.7).

34e. OC Shane Steichen was not conservative with Richardson early. The Colts actually had a higher pass rate (61%) with Richardson on the field than they did with Minshew (59%).

35. Receivers Michael Pittman (50/529/3 receiving) and Josh Downs (40/473/2) were off to pretty similar starts through eight games last season.

35b. Pittman out-targeted Downs 74 to 54, but only marginally beat Downs in yards per game (66.1 to 59.1).

35c. By expected fantasy points per route run, Pittman and Downs had identical scores (0.42).

35d. Downs suffered a knee injury in Week 9 that cost him his explosiveness. In his first eight games, Downs had a better YPRR (2.0) than Pittman (1.8).

35e. From Weeks 9-18, Pittman averaged 2.7 YPRR while Downs (1.5) fell by the wayside.

Bonus stat for the darkhorse RB1 candidate: Over the last four combined seasons, Jonathan Taylor is RB3 in scrimmage yards per game (104.5). This trails only CMC (117.7) and Derrick Henry (114.9). Only Henry (52 TDs) has scored more times on the ground than Taylor (40) in this span.

Jacksonville Jaguars

36. Last season, Travis Etienne finished as the RB7 in FPG. The key was Etienne evolving into a bell cow — he was the RB6 in snaps (74%).

36b. The big uptick in snaps really boosted Etienne’s floor, and he was 8th among all RBs in targets per game (4.3).

36c. Etienne’s route share jumped from 42% (RB17) up to 50% (RB8) last season.

36d. There might be a little bit of additional upside here if the Jaguars can improve after having mostly vanilla run concepts and below-average blocking last season. Jacksonville ranked dead last in yards before contact per carry (0.94), which can’t happen again if they’re to have an effective offense. Two seasons ago, the Jaguars were top-5 in yards before contact (2.06 per carry).

36e. This is why Etienne’s YPC dropped from 5.1 in 2022 to 3.8 last season.

36f. Etienne just looks like a high-floor bell cow. The only downside is that the Jaguars have pulled him at the goal line relatively often. Over the last two seasons, Etienne has handled just 44% (2022) and 58% (2023) of the team’s carries inside-the-5.

36g. He’s not a bad goal-line RB at all. Etienne has scored 8 TDs on his 24 carries inside-the-5 in his career.

Kansas City Chiefs

37. Kansas City is projected to return as a top-3 scoring offense. By the DraftKings lookahead lines for Weeks 1-17, the Chiefs 25.5 implied points per game trails only Detroit (25.7) and San Francisco (26.2).

37b. This means that Patrick Mahomes is due for a big uptick in touchdowns. His touchdown rate last season (4.5%) was easily a career-low and two percentage points off his career rate (6.5%).

37c. Before last season (QB12), Mahomes’ career finishes in fantasy points per game were QB1, QB6, QB2, QB5, and QB3.

38. Across their final 11 games last season, Rashee Rice earned 92 targets to Travis Kelce’s 86.

38b. Rice averaged 16.8 PPR fantasy points per game (WR10) with the lowest average depth of target (4.6 yards) among qualified receivers in this span.

38c. A whopping 24% of Rice’s targets were designed, which signals how much the Chiefs wanted to get him the ball in space. His designed target rate trailed only Jaxon Smith-Njigba (28%) and Jayden Reed (25%).

38d. No WR saw a higher rate of catchable targets (87%) than Rice.

38e. Rice was an absolute beast after the catch last season. He led all WRs in yards after the catch (7.6) on non-designed targets over George Pickens (7.0), Greg Dortch (6.6), and Deebo Samuel (6.5).

39. Travis Kelce’s 14.8 FPG last season was his worst output since 2016.

39b. Kelce will be 35 in October. No tight end in NFL history has averaged more than 14.6 FPG at 35 years or older. That was Tony Gonzalez, back in 2012 on his Falcons renaissance tour.

39c. In fact, there have only been five occurrences where a tight end 35 or older averaged more than 12.5 FPG in a single season.

39d. Gonzalez did it three times. Antonio Gates (13.6) did it in 2015 at 35 years old, but he played in 11 games. Finally, Shannon Sharpe scored 12.5 PPR FPG in 2003.

Las Vegas Raiders

40. Davante Adams was the WR5 by expected Half-PPR fantasy points per game (17.8) last season – tied with Garrett Wilson.

40b. However, he only scored 12.6 FPG (WR17).

40c. Adams and DeAndre Hopkins saw the most total uncatchable targets (41) followed by Wilson and Calvin Ridley (38) last season.

40d. Aidan O’Connell finished 28th-of-33 QBs in catchable throw rate (73.5%) last season. Gardner Minshew (73.1% | 29th) wasn’t any better.

40e. Rookie TE Brock Bowers has the talent to immediately cut into Adams' usually lofty target share. Bowers broke every SEC record set by a TE in career receiving yards per game (63.5), receptions per game (4.4), and total TDs scored (31) since 2000.

40f. In fact, Bowers leads all TEs in NCAA in career scrimmage yards per game (68.3) since 2000. Bowers ran for 19/193/5 and was used on reverses and designed runs because he’s so hard to tackle in the open field.

40h. And, he trails only hybrid FB/TE Jaylen Samuels (47) in career touchdowns by a TE (Bowers scored 31). Oh, Bowers did 99% of this as an 18 to 20 year old. He turned 21 last December.

Los Angeles Chargers

41. Over the last four combined seasons, no team has run more total plays than the Los Angeles Chargers. New HC Jim Harbaugh and OC Greg Roman are going to do everything within their power to stop that from happening again. After playing within attacks that were top-5 in pass rate in each of the last three years, the Chargers will lean far more run-heavy this season.

41b. We’re projecting Herbert to rank 23rd in the league in pass attempts per game (30.5). This would be a huge volume loss, but it’s justified. Last season, Herbert averaged 36.6 passes per game (4th-most) before he missed the final five contests with a broken finger on his right hand.

41c. In both 2022 and 2021, Herbert was 2nd in pass attempts per game (40.3), trailing only Tom Brady.

41d. Herbert is the QB8 in FPG (19.1) since 2021, but his fantasy football resume is largely driven by volume. Legend Keenan Allen is now a Bear.

Los Angeles Rams

42. Over the last three years, only Patrick Mahomes (285.4), Justin Herbert (274.2), Joe Burrow (271.3), and Kirk Cousins (270.7) have averaged more passing yards per game than Matthew Stafford (266.8) has in a Rams uniform.

43. Only two receivers in NFL history – Randy Moss (306.7) and Ja'Marr Chase (304.6) – have scored more PPR points in their rookie season than Puka Nacua (298.5) did last year.

43b. Across their 12 games together, Cooper Kupp led the Rams in first-read target share (33%), while Puka Nacua was second (27%) after taking out designed targets (like screens).

43c. Nacua averaged 16.9 PPR FPG (WR10), while Kupp put up 14.2 FPG (WR22).

43d. Nacua absolutely smoked Kupp in yards per route run vs. man coverage (3.70 to 1.52) but the duo was very close efficiency-wise when facing zones (2.64 YPRR for Nacua | 2.32 YPRR for Kupp).

43e. Ok, so is Kupp’s lack of efficiency against man coverage a red flag? Maybe. Probably not, though. He was never 100% last season after a nagging hamstring injury cost him Weeks 1-4. Also…

43f. What if I told you that Kupp slightly bested Nacua in ASS (average separation score) last season? Would that blow your mind? Because that happened.

43e. Among the 53 receivers to have 100 routes against man coverage last season, Kupp ranked 23rd in ASS – average separation score (0.16) – just ahead of Nacua (0.15 | 25th).

Miami Dolphins

44. In their eight games together (including playoffs), De’Von Achane (49.5%) and Raheem Mostert (49.5%) split snaps right down the middle.

44b. Achane gets more passing down work (48% route share) compared to Mostert (35%). This is a part of what gives him incredible upside. Achane earned 33 targets to Mostert’s 21.

44c. However, Mostert is the lead RB in the red zone. On plays inside-the-10, Mostert led Achane in carries 20 to 10.

44d. Add it all up… and Achane averaged 19.7 PPR points per game (RB3) in eight games with Mostert (17.1 FPG | RB6).

45. Only Jaylen Warren (0.34) forced more missed tackles per touch than De’Von Achane (0.31) and Ken Walker (0.31) last season.

45b. If Achane plays in 14-15 games, he has a chance to break fantasy football. He led all RBs in yards after contact per carry (3.67), explosive runs (12.6%), yards from scrimmage per touch (7.7)**, and he was second in missed tackles forced per touch (0.31).

45c. **So yeah… this is absurd. Achane’s 7.7 yards per touch bested Christian McCaffrey by nearly two full yards (CMC – 6.0 yards from scrimmage per touch).

45d. This was one of the best stats of the offseason:

Minnesota Vikings

46. Don’t bail on Jefferson with Sam Darnold under center.

46b. After he came back from a midseason hamstring injury, Jefferson dropped a casual 30/476/2 receiving (on 44 targets) in four games with Nick Mullens last season.

46c. It’s a small sample size, but Jefferson’s efficiency did not dip at all. He averaged 3.03 YPRR (157 routes) with Mullens and 2.99 YPPR (191 routes) with Kirk Cousins.

46d. This is after Jefferson ripped up the league for 128/1809/8 receiving (2.77 YPRR) the year prior.

46e. The Vikings' passing volume will dip with Darnold under center, but this should still be a pass-first offense. Minnesota led the NFL in passing yards (4,700) last season, and that was with Cousins missing half of the year. In fact, they were still 5th in pass rate over expectation (+4.3%) and 10th in pass rate when the game was within a score (63%) from Weeks 9-18 last season without Cousins. HC Kevin O’Connell loves to sling it.

46f. Jordan Addison fell from 15.8 PPR FPG in eight starts with Cousins to just 10.5 FPG with the Vikings' backups last season. He ranked a lowly 50th among WRs in yards per route run (1.63) and he was 49th in first-read target share (19.5%). Can Sam Darnold support multiple fantasy options after Justin Jefferson?

47. In his last stint as a starter in the final six games of 2022, Darnold (7.1%) trailed only Josh Allen (7.6%) in Hero Throw Rate. These were extraordinary dime passes that maximized the play.

47b. Darnold’s accuracy wasn’t bad in 2021, either. He had the third-highest charted accurate throw rate (53%), trailing only Burrow (53.1%) and Goff (53.8%).

New England Patriots

47. The Patriots were just as inept as the Panthers, with those two teams circling the drain together for the league’s worst scoring output (13.9 PPG). The only way to go is up. By implied totals, we should expect the Patriots scoring to progress by 5.0 points per game.

47b. A total of 30 RBs averaged more carries inside-the-10 per game (1.0) than Rhamondre Stevenson did last season.

47c. Rhamondre will still have a pretty high floor thanks to his involvement and ability in the passing game. Over the last two combined seasons, Stevenson is the RB9 in snaps (65%) and RB6 in targets per game (4.8). In fact, only Ekeler (201), McCaffrey (191), and Kamara (163) have earned more total targets than Stevenson (139) in this span.

47d. The good news? New England has one of the softest slates by strength of schedule for QBs (sixth-easiest) and RBs (easiest).

47e. The (way worse) news? Their offensive line is the worst in the league. And it’s not close, per former NFL scout Scott DiBenedetto.

Intermission 2

Still with me? We're more than two-thirds of the way done — only 10 teams to go. Now might be a good time to remind you to subscribe to Fantasy Points — to get more great stats like this every week — and to follow me on Twitter.

I’m pausing here because we have to think about Derek Carr next. I know, I know. Trust me – I don’t want to do it either. Carr’s career in the NFL has been just like M. Night Shyamalan’s movie producing career. It started with such promise and there have been glimmers of hope recently, but the more you watch lately, the worse it gets. So, prepare yourselves.

I’d also like to take a moment to personally apologize to Luis Arraez, his fans, and the city of San Diego. After all, the Padres are on track to be in the playoffs with the help of Arraez leading them off. Don’t hate the player, hate the game. We can’t help that extra-base hits and home runs are exponentially more valuable than singles. (Sorry, Luis!! You’re still in the 99th percentile of all humans to ever hit a baseball.)

Back to FOOTBALL.

New Orleans Saints

48. After Michael Thomas was done for the season with an injury in Week 10, Olave quietly closed out the final seven games of his season by averaging 16.1 PPR FPG. This would have made him the WR15 over the full season if he sustained that pace – just behind Deebo Samuel.

48b. Despite a concussion and a nagging ankle sprain, Olave stepped up and still shredded defenses to the tune of 2.86 yards per route run (WR6) in this stretch without Thomas.

48c. For reference, Olave was just a solid fantasy WR3 in Weeks 1-9 with Thomas, as he averaged 1.76 YPRR (WR43), and he put up 13.1 FPG (WR28).

49. Only the Steelers (15.5%) used play-action less often than the Saints (15.7%) last season.

49b. Olave has absolutely wrecked defenses when the Saints use play-action. This is where he ranked among receivers in yards per route run off of play-action:

2022 – 9th-of-90 WR (3.70 YPRR)

2023 – 13th-of-85 WR (3.54)

50. Alvin Kamara notched his fifth top-10 finish in PPR points per game among RBs last season (RB5 | 17.5 FPG).

50b. He started to show his age, though. He tied with Rachaad White and Javonte Williams as the RB38 in missed tackles forced per touch (0.14). At least Williams blew out his knee the season before and has that to blame.

50c. Only Zach Charbonnet, Ezekiel Elliott, Austin Ekeler, and Kareem Hunt forced fewer missed tackles per touch than Kamara last season.

50d. Over the last two seasons, Kamara has 28 carries (5 TDs) inside-the-10 over the last two seasons while TE/QB/RB/WR Taysom Hill (26 carries – 7 TDs) is turning into a legitimate goal-line back. This only includes the 26 games where both players were active.

New York Giants

50. Daniel Jones is averaging 208.5 passing yards per game with a 3.3% TD rate since he entered the league in 2019. He’s never had a single season above the league average in yards per pass attempt (7.0). His career-high was 6.8 YPA (24th-best) in 2022.

50b. For reference, Jones is averaging fewer yards per game than backups Andy Dalton (212.5) and Mac Jones (212.3) in this span.

50c. According to work done by excellent analyst Dwain McFarland, QBs that average between 200 to 224 passing yards per game support top-24 fantasy wide receivers just 20% of the time.

50d. Since 2019, Daniel Jones’ 3.3% passing touchdown rate ranks 39th-of-40 QBs.

50e. The only QB with a worse TD rate in this span? Yeah, that’d be Zach Wilson (2.3%).

50f. That’s not great for Malik Nabers’ overall outlook.

51. With the addition of Nabers, the hope is that Jones takes a big step forward. The Giants desperately need Nabers to stretch the field. Daniel Jones threw deep — over 20 yards in air — on a league-low 6.9% of his pass attempts last season. That figure has to rise considerably if we’re going to get a solid ceiling out of Nabers in fantasy.

New York Jets

52. Breece Hall was the RB1 in fantasy when the Jets won (23.7 FPG in seven victories), making him one of the most game-script-dependent running backs last season.

52b. For reference, Christian McCaffrey (22.4 FPG) finished as the RB1 by 2.6 FPG over RB2 Kyren Williams (19.8).

52c. Hall was basically a replacement-level FLEX player in losses (8.7 FPG – RB38). Well, things are about to get a whole lot better.

52d. By the DraftKings Sportsbook lookahead lines, the Jets are favored in 13 games this year, and that’s tied with the Cowboys, Ravens, and Bengals for third-most.

52e. In fact, they’re favored by three or more points in 10 games total. That’s the fourth-most games favored by at least a field goal and behind only the Chiefs (14), 49ers (12), and Ravens (11).

53. Hall and Bijan Robinson are two of 8 running backs to have at least 200 carries and earn at least 80 targets at 22 years old or younger. The other six running backs to meet this mark at 22 years old or younger? Saquon Barkley, Christian McCaffrey, Le’Veon Bell, LeSean McCoy, Ray Rice, and Edgerrin James (since 1992).

53b. Every single one of those RBs – Barkley, CMC, Bell, McCoy, and Rice – all went on to have at least one season where they finished as the fantasy RB1 overall. Every one of those RBs has multiple top-3 finishes. Edgerrin James was the only one who didn’t finish as the overall RB1, and that was only because Marshall Faulk was lighting up the league in 1999-2000. James was the RB2 in back-to-back seasons in this span.

54. Garrett Wilson has scored just seven touchdowns across 34 career games, and that has resulted in mediocre WR36 and WR31 finishes in fantasy points per game.

54b. The volume has been strong – Wilson was WR9 in target share (27.1%) last season and WR22 two years ago (22.5%). We just need some scores.

54c. Wilson has scored a TD on just 2.2% of his career targets. By comparison, Aaron Rodgers’ worst career touchdown rate in a single season is 4.2%. Rodgers' career TD rate is 6.2%.

54d. It’d be pretty bullish to expect Rodgers to match his elite career 6% touchdown rate as a 40-year-old coming off an Achilles tear. However, if Wilson just had Rodgers playing at his “worst” season (4.2%) over the last two years, he’d have somewhere between 13-14 TDs. Again, he’s actually scored just seven.

54e. Only four wide receivers in history have earned at least 140 targets in back-to-back seasons at 23 years old or younger – Justin Jefferson, Mike Evans, Allen Robinson, and Wilson.

54f. In his last full season as a starter, Aaron Rodgers was third in Hero Throw Rate (6.5%). These were extraordinary dime passes that maximized the play.

54g. In 2021, no quarterback had more Hero Throws than Rodgers (8.5%). This led Joe Burrow (7.9%) and Kyler Murray (7.7%) in that season.

Philadelphia Eagles

55. A.J. Brown already tallied up 1,005 receiving yards in nine games before the Eagles bye last season. In Weeks 1-10, Brown’s 22.6 PPR points per game ranked WR3 and trailed only Tyreek Hill (25.0) and Keenan Allen (22.8).

55b. Then the wheels fell off. Brown averaged a meager 56.4 yards per game over his final eight contests. He dropped all the way to WR38 in FPG in Weeks 11-18.

56. By the end of the year, the Eagles were just a stale, predictable offense. Their old staff used motion before or during the snap on just 26% of their pass plays (30th). Motion helps receivers get leverage on cornerbacks faster, and the Eagles' receivers will benefit greatly from OC Kellen Moore simply putting them in more advantageous positions.

56b. The Chargers (under OC Moore) used receiver motion before or during the snap on 58% of their pass plays last season (third-most).

56c. All wide receivers across the league averaged 1.67 yards per route run when motion was used before or during the snap last season. YPRR dips to 1.53 without any type of motion during the pass play.

57. DeVonta Smith ranks WR23 in targets (7.5), WR15 in receptions (5.3), WR19 in receiving yards (68.5), and WR16 in PPR points (14.6) on a per-game basis since the beginning of 2022.

57b. His aggregate ADP has slipped to WR24. He’s a phenomenal value.

58. Here are Saquon Barkley’s figures in yards after contact and missed tackles forced per carry over the last three seasons, according to FP Data. That’s three straight seasons without ranking top-15 in yards after contact or missed tackles forced:

2021 – 2.62 YAC per carry (26th-of-42 RBs) / 0.15 MTF per carry (31st)

2022 – 2.75 YAC (24th-of-37 RBs) / 0.20 MTF (16th)

2023 – 2.66 YAC (16th-of-41 RBs) / 0.19 MTF (22nd)

58b. The good news? This is a huge upgrade in his offensive environment.

58c. Over the last three seasons, Philadelphia has finished 2nd (2.17), 1st (2.46), and 1st (2.26) in adjusted yards before contact per carry. Importantly, this metric takes out non-designed QB runs – like scrambles and kneeldowns.

58d. How valuable can this bell cow role be with Hurts at QB? That’s the big question here. Hurts steals touchdowns and doesn’t throw to his running backs often. Over the last three years, Eagles RBs have ranked 24th (2021), 31st (2022), and 16th (2023) in receptions.

59. Eagles QB Jalen Hurts has scored 25 TDs on 33 carries inside-the-5 over the last two seasons. That’s an insane 75.6% scoring rate.

59b. Barkley will still get his goal-line carries, but it’s hard to stop The Push. Hurts saw more carries than D’Andre Swift inside the five-yard line last year (16 to 14).

Pittsburgh Steelers

60. Justin Fields’ catchable throw rate was 32nd (71%) last season while Russell Wilson’s was significantly higher (77% | 13th).

60b. It can’t get much worse. George Pickens was merely the WR45 (!!) in catchable targets last season, with just 4.5 per game. For reference, this was the same amount of catchable targets that Tyler Boyd and Josh Downs saw.

61. Najee Harris ran hard last season, but he still got destroyed by Jaylen Warren in every single advanced rushing metric.

61b. Warren ranked second-best in yards after contact per carry (3.48), and he led all RBs in missed tackles forced per carry (0.34).

61c. By comparison, Harris was 16th in after-contact yards (2.76 per carry) and 20th in MTF/Carry (0.21).

61d. Warren averaged 5.7 YPC when the Steelers went into 2-TE personnel last season. Harris averaged 2.9 YPC.

61e. Atlanta used 12-personnel (2-TE) on a league-high 42% of their plays last season under Steelers new OC Arthur Smith. Pittsburgh could be in a similar boat this season, given their WR depth chart.

61f. The Steelers' old staff gave Harris 45 carries inside-the-10 (78% share) compared to just 12 for Warren (21% share) in the last two seasons.

61g. By comparison, Bijan Robinson handled just 44% of carries inside-the-10 while Tyler Allgeier handled 37% last year.

61h. Falcons RBs split similarly inside-the-10 two years ago as well in a three-way committee with Allgeier (45% of carries), Cordarrelle Patterson (32%), and Caleb Hundley (21%).

San Francisco 49ers

62. Over the last three combined seasons, Deebo Samuel is the WR10 in PPR fantasy points per game (17.1) – just edging out Amon-Ra St. Brown (16.9). Yet, he’s drafted at the end of the third round as the WR15 in positional ADP.

62b. Deebo is still somehow underrated in fantasy football. He’s finished top-15 among wide receivers in yards per route run in four of the last five seasons, with his down 2022 season being the lone exception.

63. Brandon Aiyuk (27.4%) led the 49ers in first-read target share ahead of Samuel (24.1%), Kittle (16.6%), and McCaffrey (13.7%) in their 16 games together (including playoffs).

63b. However, Deebo gets all of the layup-designed targets. Last season, Samuel got 21 designed targets (like screens). CMC got 20. Aiyuk didn’t get a single one.

63c. Deebo has 16 rushing TDs across 44 games over the last three seasons.

63d. Deebo just marginally out-scored Aiyuk on a per-game basis (16.2 to 15.7) last season.

63e. After an incredibly efficient 2023 campaign, Aiyuk will be hard-pressed to maintain a similar level. This stat from Mike Clay was one of my favorites this offseason:

Seattle Seahawks

64. Geno Smith is good! Get over it! Smith has made 36 starts for the Seahawks over the last three seasons, in which he’s QB13 by fantasy points per game. Additionally, Smith ranks 13th in yards per game, 14th in touchdown rate, and 10th-best in YPA among the 39 QBs with 500 pass attempts since 2021.

64b. I’m particularly interested to see how new OC Ryan Grubb opens up the Seahawks' passing attack.

64c. Geno has been terrific throwing deep – that’s all passes of 20+ yards in the air – over the last two seasons by FP Data’s completions over expected metric. He ranked fourth-best on deep throws two years ago (+12% CPOE) and seventh-best last season (+7.3% CPOE).

64d. The Washington Huskies led all of college football in deep passing yards last season under Grubb, per PFF College.

65. Yards Created readers know that Ken Walker has the talent to excel and we saw his tackle-breaking ability display to the highest degree last season.

65b. He finished second in missed tackles forced per touch (0.33) behind only Jaylen Warren (0.35), while Breece Hall (0.31) rounded out the top 3.

65c. In their 13 games together, Walker saw way more carries than Charbonnet (189 to 60) but the rookie played more in the passing game over Walker.

65d. Charbonnet ran 183 routes to Walker’s 152.

65e. However, the only running backs that saw a higher share of their team’s carries than Walker (66%) last season were Josh Jacobs (77%), Kyren Williams (69%), and Joe Mixon (67%).

65f. New OC Ryan Grubb hyped up Walker’s ability in the passing game, signaling that a larger role might be on tap. More passing game work is all that Walker needs to morph from a low-end RB2 to possibly a low-end RB1.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

66. Mike Evans has finished as a top-24 fantasy WR in 10 straight seasons. He has eight years inside of the top 15.

66b. Evans showed zero signs of drop-off last year, and he will be enshrined in Canton one day. However, we’d be foolish not to recognize the risk with Evans entering Year 10 at age 31. This is crucially the year that Ryan Heath identified when receivers really started to drop off their peak with 80.5% of their career “baseline” production.

66c. If he were to regress in a similar fashion, that would take Evans down from his usual WR1 levels to more of a mid-range WR2 this season.

66d. In 19 games, Evans slightly led Chris Godwin in first-read target share (29% to 27%).

67. Godwin will be back in his natural position full-time as the primary slot receiver for Tampa this season, according to both the Buccaneers WRs coach and HC Todd Bowles this offseason.

67b. He was more efficient in the slot last season, averaging 2.05 yards per route run inside vs. 1.77 when he lined up as a perimeter receiver.

67c. We saw him start to really trend up to close last season after he bottomed out for 0/0 receiving on three targets in Week 13. From that point on, Godwin led the team in targets over Evans (57 to 50), first reads (29% share to 25%), and yards per route run (2.29 to 1.88).

67d. Godwin vastly underperformed in the touchdown department last season after turning his 12 end-zone targets into just 2 TDs.

67e. By comparison, Evans scored 10 TDs on his 20 end-zone targets.

67f. Godwin posted a significantly better ASS (separation score) in the slot (0.14 | WR27) as opposed to out wide (0.06 | WR61) last season.

67g. These are Godwin’s fantasy football finishes by season:

• WR38 (2023) | 38% slot

• WR20 (2022) | 73%

• WR9 (2021) | 70%

• WR15 (2020) | 57%

• WR2 (2019) | 55%

• WR36 (2018) | 30%

67h. That’s four straight seasons as a top-20 WR in points per game when a full-time slot WR. There should not be a 55-pick gap in ADP between Evans’ and Godwin’s price.

Tennessee Titans

68. Titans HC Brian Callahan has called his RBs Tyjae Spears and Tony Pollard “interchangeable” all offseason.

68b. Spears is a better player than Pollard straight up at this point of their careers. Last season, Spears bested Pollard in yards after contact (2.92 vs. 2.61) and missed tackles forced (0.21 vs. 0.15) on a per-carry basis while running behind a worse offensive line in Tennessee than Pollard had in Dallas.

68c. Spears was also far more effective in space, averaging 9.1 yards after the catch as a receiver (RB13). Pollard was one of the worst receiving backs in the league with just 5.96 YAC/reception (45th-of-47 RB).

Washington Commanders

69. Jayden Daniels is basically Discount Anthony Richardson with a worse coaching staff, offensive line, and surrounding weapons. Daniels just has immense upside for our game.

69b. Since 2017, no quarterback has scrambled more often or averaged more rushing yards per game on scrambles than Jayden Daniels. H/T FballInsights.

69c. In his final year at LSU, Daniels rushed for an incredible 1,134 yards and threw for 40 TDs in just 12 games. It led to the second-highest fantasy scoring season by a QB in NCAA history.

69d. For context, Daniels rushed for 94.5 yards per game. This is almost on par with Cam Newton’s 2010 Heisman season (105.2), and it’s slightly better than Jalen Hurts (92.7 rush YPG) in his final 2019 season at Oklahoma.

69e. Daniels (94.5 rush YPG) nearly doubled Anthony Richardson’s (54.5 rush YPG) final season on the ground.

69f. He also averaged more yards as a runner than Kyler Murray (71.5 rushing yards per game) in his 2018 Heisman campaign.

69h. Oh, he also led all QBs in adjusted completion rate (69% per PFF College) on passes of 20 or more air yards last season at LSU.

69i. I see two primary risks here. But at his price (Round 10-11 ADP) the upside outweighs any downside…

• The Commanders are 26th in implied points per game (20.9), just behind the Steelers (21.0) and the Saints (21.2). Daniels likely won’t score a ton of touchdowns, but if we get 40-50 rushing yards per game, we’re thrilled. He has the upside for more rushing than that.

• Kliff Kingsbury is the second risk. Let’s not forget that his tenure in Arizona ended with franchise QB Kyler Murray screaming at Kingsbury in the middle of a game because the offense was so awful.

TL;DR

First, thank you for making it this far. I’m sure your eyes are tired. Do you need to blink? Get some Visine?

So… Who is this year’s Luis Arraez, you might ask? This is the player that hits a ton of singles and bats for .310, but never offers you that league-winning upside?

My best guess: Bills RB James Cook. Scroll back up.

Bonus!

You thought I was done? WRONG!! More stats for you!

I will leave you with some food for thought about quarterback scoring…

Out of the top 200 individual weekly scores by a quarterback over the last two seasons, 194 of them scored at least two touchdowns in the game – either on the ground or through the air. That’s 97%. Basically, you have to get at least two TDs from your quarterback to really have a chance at a big fantasy score.

Quarterbacks get the majority of their ceiling potential from scoring touchdowns in the first place. 93% of the variance in fantasy points for quarterbacks is explained by their total touchdowns (passing and rushing).

However, mobile quarterbacks provide a vastly higher floor in fantasy football than most pocket passers. Notice I said “floor” and not “ceiling" there.

When Lamar Jackson runs for 60 yards per game, that’s the equivalent of 1.5 times the value of a passing touchdown (4 FP). Lamar doesn’t have to throw 3-4 TDs to really hit a big score like Joe Burrow or C.J. Stroud will need it to hit 28-30+ FP. When Lamar does score 3-4 TDs in a game, he’s pretty much unbeatable because of how high his floor already is.