The 2024 NFL season is starting to come into view, which means more NFL player props are being released with each passing week. I previously broke down the 2024 NFL Receiving Touchdown Props and it’s time to dive into the 2024 NFL Most Receiving Touchdowns Odds for the top receivers. In this article, I highlighted bets I’ve already made on Ja’Marr Chase and Christian Watson and a pair of additional wagers I strongly considered.
Tyreek Hill and Mike Evans tied for the league lead with 13 receiving touchdowns, which cashed at +1400 (8th) and +3000 (t-18th) odds, respectively. They bested CeeDee Lamb (12, +2000) and five other receivers at 10 TDs for the receiving TD crown. Lamb (+450) is the favorite to lead the league in receiving touchdowns entering his age-25 campaign, and he’s followed by Hill (+500), A.J. Brown (+750), and Chase (+850) at shorter than 10/1 odds.
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Receiving Touchdowns Leaders From the Last Decade
| Year | Receiver | Age | Receiving TDs | Odds (rank) |
| 2023 | Tyreek Hill (Mia)/Mike Evans (TB) | 30/29 | 13 | +1400 (8th)/+3000 (t-18th) |
| 2022 | Davante Adams (LV) | 29 | 14 | +900 (t-3rd) |
| 2021 | Cooper Kupp (LAR) | 28 | 16 | +6600 (t-25th) |
| 2020 | Davante Adams (GB) | 27 | 18 | +1000 (t-2nd) |
| 2019 | Kenny Golladay (Det) | 25 | 11 | +6500 (t-40th) |
| 2018 | Antonio Brown (Pit) | 30 | 15 | +420 (1st) |
| 2017 | DeAndre Hopkins (Hou) | 25 | 13 | +3300 (t-14th) |
| 2016 | Jordy Nelson (GB) | 31 | 14 | N/A |
| 2015 | D. Baldwin (Sea)/B. Marshall (NYJ) | 26/31 | 14 | N/A |
| 2014 | Dez Bryant (Dal) | 24 | 16 | N/A |
Historical Hints
We have odds for only the last seven years at our disposal, and the league leader in receiving touchdowns has come from all over the odds board. DeAndre Hopkins (2017), Kenny Golladay (2019), Cooper Kupp (2021), and Mike Evans (+3000) each hit at +3000 odds or longer. Antonio Brown (+2018) and Davante Adams (2020/2002) led the league as chalkier options at +1000 odds or shorter. Adams is the only player in the last decade to lead the league in receiving TDs more than once. The NFL’s receiving touchdown leader has reached 14+ touchdowns in seven of the previous 10 seasons.
2024 NFL Most Receiving Touchdowns Odds
The table is sorted by Fantasy Points receiving touchdown projections. You should target the Longest Odds for Most Receiving TDs to maximize your potential return. I used odds from DraftKings (DK), FanDuel (FD), Caesars (CZR), BetMGM (MGM), and ESPN Bet (ESPN) as of July 29.
| Receiver | FP Projection | Longest Odds for Most Receiving TDs | Shortest Odds for Most Receiving TDs |
| CeeDee Lamb (Dal) | 10.5 | +1100 (FD) | +450 (CZR) |
| Tyreek Hill (Mia) | 10.0 | +1100 (FD) | +500 (CZR) |
| Mike Evans (TB) | 8.9 | +1800 (FD) | +1200 (CZR) |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown (Det) | 8.7 | +2500 (FD) | +1200 (CZR) |
| Ja’Marr Chase (Cin) | 8.3 | +1600 (FD) | +850 (MGM/CZR) |
| Garrett Wilson (NYJ) | 8.2 | +1600 (FD) | +1100 (CZR) |
| A.J. Brown (Phi) | 7.7 | +1600 (FD) | +750 (MGM) |
| Sam LaPorta (Det) | 7.6 | +4000 (ESPN) | +2500 (FD) |
| D.K. Metcalf (Sea) | 7.5 | +3100 (FD) | +1800 (CZR) |
| Justin Jefferson (Min) | 7.4 | +2300 (FD) | +1000 (MGM/CZR) |
| Mark Andrews (Bal) | 7.1 | +4000 (DK/ESPN) | +2800 (CZR) |
| Drake London (Atl) | 7.0 | +4700 (FD) | +2200 (CZR) |
| Marvin Harrison Jr. (Ari) | 6.8 | +4200 (FD) | +3300 (CZR) |
| Davante Adams (LV) | 6.7 | +2600 (FD) | +2000 (MGM) |
| Rashee Rice (KC) | 6.7 | +5000 (CZR) | +3500 (MGM) |
| DeVonta Smith (Phi) | 6.6 | +5000 (FD) | +3000 (DK) |
| Chris Olave (NO) | 6.5 | +6000 (FD) | +2500 (DK) |
| D.J. Moore (Chi) | 6.5 | +4400 (FD) | +2000 (DK) |
| Cooper Kupp (LAR) | 6.4 | +4500 (DK) | +2200 (CZR) |
| Amari Cooper (Cle) | 6.4 | +5000 (DK/FD) | +3500 (CZR/MGM) |
| Tee Higgins (Cin) | 6.4 | +4300 (FD) | +2000 (MGM/CZR) |
| DeAndre Hopkins (Ten) | 6.3 | +7500 (FD) | +3300 (CZR) |
| Kyle Pitts (Atl) | 6.3 | +7000 (FD) | +5000 (DK/MGM) |
| Nico Collins (Hou) | 6.1 | +6000 (FD) | +1500 (MGM) |
| Puka Nacua (LAR) | 6.0 | +4200 (FD) | +850 (CZR) |
| Receiver | FP Projection | Longest Odds for Most Receiving TDs | Shortest Odds for Most Receiving TDs |
| Brandon Aiyuk (SF) | 6.0 | +3600 (FD) | +2500 (MGM) |
| Calvin Ridley (Ten) | 6.0 | +6500 (FD) | +3000 (MGM) |
| Travis Kelce (KC) | 5.9 | +4000 (DK/ESPN) | +2500 (CZR) |
| Stefon Diggs (Hou) | 5.9 | +5500 (FD) | +2800 (MGM) |
| Jaylen Waddle (Mia) | 5.8 | +6500 (FD) | +3500 (CZR) |
| Christian Kirk (Jax) | 5.6 | +9000 (FD) | +5500 (CZR) |
| Jayden Reed (GB) | 5.6 | +7500 (FD) | +2500 (CZR) |
| Deebo Samuel (SF) | 5.5 | +6500 (FD) | +4000 (DK/ESPN) |
| Malik Nabers (NYG) | 5.5 | +9000 (MGM) | +4000 (CZR) |
| Christian Watson (GB) | 5.5 | +8500 (FD) | +1500 (MGM) |
| Romeo Doubs (GB) | 5.5 | +10000 (FD) | +7500 (ESPN) |
| Michael Pittman (Ind) | 5.4 | +6000 (CZR) | +3000 (MGM) |
| Terry McLaurin (Was) | 5.4 | +11000 (FD) | +5000 (DK/MGM) |
| Tank Dell (Hou) | 5.4 | +5000 (FD/DK) | +3300 (CZR) |
| George Kittle (SF) | 5.4 | +8000 (DK/MGM) | +3000 (CZR) |
| Jake Ferguson (Dal) | 5.3 | +8000 (DK/MGM) | +4000 (CZR) |
| Dalton Kincaid (Buf) | 5.2 | +10000 (DK/ESPN) | +6000 (FD) |
| Zay Flowers (Bal) | 5.1 | +6500 (FD) | +4000 (CZR/MGM) |
| Keenan Allen (LAC) | 5.1 | +9500 (FD) | +4000 (MGM) |
| Courtland Sutton (Den) | 5.0 | +13000 (FD) | +4000 (MGM/CZR) |
| David Njoku (Cle) | 4.9 | +10000 (DK/ESPN) | +8500 (FD) |
| Trey McBride (Ari) | 4.9 | +10000 (CZR) | +6500 (FD) |
| Marquise Brown (KC) | 4.7 | +4000 (DK/ESPN) | +2200 (CZR) |
| Xavier Worthy (KC) | 4.4 | +10000 (FD) | +5000 (DK) |
Brolley’s Best Bets
Ja’Marr Chase (Cin) most regular season receiving TDs 2024-25 (+1800, FanDuel). Placed July 29.
Chase has seen his receiving TDs dip in each of his first three seasons (7<9<13), but he opened his career with the second-most receiving TDs by a rookie behind only Randy Moss. He still owns an impressive 29 TDs on his first 407 targets (7.1%) in 45 games (.64 TDs per game). His overall TDs dipped the last two seasons because of a hip injury that cost him five games in 2022 and because of Joe Burrow’s injury issues last season.
The Bengals ranked sixth in pass rate from inside the 20-yard line (56.5%), which dipped to 16th from inside the 10-yard line (50.0%). The ball could be in Burrow’s hands more around the goal line with Joe Mixon out of the mix, who racked up 29 rushing TDs and 8 receiving TDs since Chase joined the roster three years ago. Chase is a big-play threat to score from anywhere on the field, and he possesses plenty of strength to score near the goal line. He should also see more slot opportunities with Tyler Boyd out of the mix after running just 22.2% of his routes from inside. We’re getting a good price on Chase in this market, especially if you consider he’s the co-favorite to lead the league in receiving TDs at ESPNBet at +900 along with Tyreek Hill.
Christian Watson (GB) most regular season receiving TDs 2024-25 (+8500, FanDuel). Placed July 29.
Watson has been prolific at finding the end zone in his first two seasons with two different quarterbacks. He’s scored 12 receiving TDs on 119 targets (10.1%) in 23 games (.52 TDs per game) playing with Aaron Rodgers and Jordan Love. Watson has been successful at finding the end zone because he’s a threat to score from anywhere on the field. Among 105 WRs who saw 50+ targets, he finished second in aDOT (16.5 yards) and he easily led the league with an end-zone target on every 6.3% of his routes (15 of 240).
Watson’s balky hamstring has held him back the most to this point in his career, but he worked on correcting it this off-season. He worked with University of Wisconsin medical researchers to try to mitigate the hamstring issues, and he discovered that the strength balance between his hamstrings was around 20% off — he knocked it down to 10-12% by mid-May. Watson has competition for target and routes in a loaded Packers receiving corps, but he still led Green Bay in air yards share (33.7%) and target share (16.9%) despite being in and out of the lineup. He’s paired with a quarterback who finished second in TD passes in his first season as a starter, which is why Watson’s odds are in the +1500 to +2500 range at other top national sportsbooks.
Brolley’s Leans
Garrett Wilson (NYJ) most regular season receiving TDs 2024-25 (+1000, FanDuel).
I gave out Wilson to lead the NFL in receiving yards at +2800 odds, and I nearly gave out Wilson to lead the league in receiving touchdowns but the odds just weren’t worth the investment. He’s scored just 7 TDs on 315 targets (2.2%) in 34 games (.21 TDs per game) to open his career, but he’s been mostly saddled with Zach Wilson tossing him the rock. In fact, 5 of his 7 scores came from non-Wilson QBs Joe Flacco (2), Mike White (2), and Tim Boyle (1). He’s set to see a significant quarterback upgrade with Aaron Rodgers returning to the lineup this year, which should help his 76.1% catchable target rate rise.
The Jets easily paced the NFL in pass rate from inside the 10-yard line (73.1%) and they ranked second from inside the 20-yard line (64.5%). Rodgers’ last season with Nathaniel Hackett on staff came with the Packers in 2021, and they ranked inside the top 5 in pass rates from both ranges. The 2022 Packers also finished inside the top 12 in pass rates from both ranges. We’re projecting Wilson to more than double up his career TD total in his third season.
Drake London (Atl) most regular season receiving TDs 2024-25 (+4700, FanDuel).
London has scored just 6 TDs on his first 227 targets (2.6% rate) in 33 games (.18 TDs per game) to start his career, but his fortunes are set to drastically change. The Falcons signed Kirk Cousins and they’re transitioning to a more pass-heavy attack under Sean McVay disciple Zac Robinson. Sportsbooks aren’t expecting a dropoff from Cousins in his return from an Achilles injury. His passing TD line is set at 27.5, which is tied for the eighth-highest line. Cousins averaged an impressive 1.85 passing TDs per game since he became a full-time starter in 2015, and he reached 25+ TDs in eight straight seasons before hitting 18 scores in eight games in 2023.
For comparison, the Falcons averaged just 1.0 TD passes per game in each of London’s first two seasons under Arthur Smith with the likes of Desmond Ridder, Marcus Mariota, and Taylor Heinicke quarterbacking the offenses. London saw only 15 end-zone targets in his first two seasons, but he still led the Falcons in those looks in both years. Cousins has helped produce five different double-digit touchdown seasons for his receivers since 2015. London could be the next one to do it, which would vault him into the league leader picture.
