Fantasy football is a game based on statistics, but statistics without context will tell lies. Great fantasy analysis should incorporate a blend of statistical and film analysis, which will be the goal of this column every week.
I will watch the condensed version of every game this season and highlight a handful of the most important developments from my game reviews each week for fantasy managers to consider moving forward.
Given the devastation and upheaval at the wide receiver position across the league last week, it makes sense to focus this week's column on some of the unproven wideouts that fantasy managers may need to trust in the coming weeks.
Cedric Tillman
Tillman may not be an overly familiar name to NFL-only fans, but the Browns got lucky when he slid to the 74th pick of the 2023 NFL Draft (their first selection that year). While I provided a huge range of potential outcomes for him in his draft profile two springs ago, I gave him a high-end comp to ex-Saint Michael Thomas and rated him as the second-best receiver prospect available in that draft.
His biggest issues through the first 1 1/2 seasons of his NFL career were that Cleveland had a stud "X" receiver in Amari Cooper before he arrived, and the front office continued to make the Browns a refuge for outcast receivers such as Jerry Jeudy and Elijah Moore. In his first game after replacing Cooper in Week 7, he posted a line befitting of the artist formally known as "Slant Boy" with eight catches on 12 targets for 81 yards.
Cleveland made him a priority against the Bengals, as he recorded an 80.4% route rate, 36.7% of the team's air yard, and a 23.1% target share. Perhaps more importantly, he was involved early. Deshaun Watson threw two of his first three and three of his first seven passes in Tillman's direction, including on a Thomas-like slant on Watson's second attempt. In typical 2024 Browns fashion, Watson did not target him again before tearing his Achilles.
On the first play following Watson's injury late in the first half, Dorian Thompson-Robinson threw Tillman a contested catch ball in the end zone that drew a pass interference call and eventually led to Nick Chubb's 1-yard touchdown. Thompson-Robinson went on to pepper him with seven targets before he left with a finger injury, including several routes that contributed to Tillman drawing 31.3% of the first-read targets - tied with David Njoku for the team lead.
Jameis Winston spread the ball around more than his two predecessors when he entered the game with 3:43 remaining, but even his connection with Tillman was encouraging. The University of Tennessee product broke loose for a strong catch-and-run of 25 yards on the duo's sixth offensive play together, and he was the clear first read on a high-low concept on a two-point conversion at the end of the drive.
Some of the complicating factors surrounding Tillman's fantasy viability for the rest of the season are as follows:
1) Will Thompson-Robinson be the quarterback when he is healthy again, or will it be Winston? (The latter should inspire more confidence for fantasy managers.)
2) Will Cleveland's offense improve as a result of Watson being sidelined, or is the offensive line in such bad shape that it won't make a difference?
3) Do the Browns want to win and decrease their odds of landing Watson's replacement in the 2025 NFL Draft?
Is Tillman a lock to do this a few more times this year? Absolutely not, particularly in this offense. Does Tillman have the talent to be a more than serviceable replacement for Cooper, especially if the quarterback play improves? Absolutely.
Ricky Pearsall
Pearsall deserves a ton of credit for keeping his sanity through what has been an unreasonable amount of adversity for a rookie. He suffered a thigh/hamstring injury in mid-July and missed most of training camp with a recurring shoulder injury. He was then shot in the chest during a robbery attempt on August 31. Shortly thereafter, he was placed on the NFI list and did not resume practicing in full until last week.
The No. 31 overall pick in this year's draft quickly went from a feel-good story to a big part of the team's immediate plans shortly after San Francisco received confirmation that Brandon Aiyuk (ACL, MCL) was done for the season.
That was far from the 49ers' only issue in Week 7, as Deebo Samuel faces an uncertain timeline for his return to action after it was discovered he was suffering from pneumonia and had fluid in his lungs. Jauan Jennings (hip) did not practice all of last week and is no sure thing to return in Week 8. George Kittle is also reportedly dealing with a foot sprain.
Two months ago, Pearsall appeared to have little chance of breaking into San Francisco's "Big Four" (Christian McCaffrey, Aiyuk, Samuel, and Kittle). There is now a distinct possibility that he will be the healthiest option Brock Purdy has available in Week 8, which he could use to cement his place in the passing game heading into the team's Week 9 bye.
Pearsall led all 49er receivers in Week 7 with a route participation rate of 81.1%, which is to be expected considering the team was down to him, Jacob Cowing, Chris Conley and Ronnie Bell at the end.
It is important to remember that one of the primary reasons Pearsall was valued so highly by San Francisco this spring was that the 49ers viewed him as a player — like Aiyuk — who could create separation against man coverage, which was a problem for the offense in the team's Super Bowl loss to the Chiefs.
So how did he measure up analytically in his debut? He served as the first read on 20% of drop-backs, posted an 8.4 aDOT, and commanded 16.1% of the team's targets. Given what he has dealt with to get to this point, he did about as much as anyone could have expected against a difficult defense. Considering he did not play in the preseason and has so little practice time with the team, it would be unreasonable to expect much more than he provided in Week 7.
There will be a time when Pearsall will be a highly sought-after fantasy asset. It may happen as soon as late this season when he has more of a chance to build a rapport with Purdy. However, fantasy managers should have their doubts that time will come before December - if it happens at all in 2024. The 49ers will get healthy eventually. When they do, he will be no better than the fourth priority in the passing attack.
Jalen McMillan
McMillan is just the most recent example of a player who can see his fantasy value skyrocket — due to circumstance — despite coming off a poor game. The trajectory of Tampa Bay's season likely changed with just under a minute remaining in the fourth quarter of its Week 7 loss as Chris Godwin suffered a dislocated ankle that will end his season.
In most cases, fantasy managers can refer back to personnel usage after an injury to determine who the most likely beneficiary will be. That task becomes more difficult when the sample size is six plays in garbage time. By my count, there were six plays in which Tampa Bay had a receiver in the slot after Godwin departed. Sterling Shepard lined up inside five times and Trey Palmer once.
What value that information provides is up for debate. It is an extremely small sample size in the final minute of a game that had already been decided. Shepard has spent most of his career — college and pro — in the slot but has been a part-time player when he has been healthy in recent years, so the end of Week 7 could have been mostly about convenience and not predictive in any way. On the other hand, McMillan has lined up inside on only a quarter of his snaps as a rookie after playing in the slot almost 90% of the time in his final season at the University of Washington.
Why does any of this make a difference? New offensive coordinator Liam Coen moved Godwin back to the slot this season after his predecessor (Panthers head coach Dave Canales) used the 28-year-old as a perimeter receiver in his one season calling the plays. Under Canales last year, Godwin failed to average at least 15 PPR fantasy points per game for the first time since 2018. With Coen moving him back inside, Godwin was well on his way to having a career year across the board.
Considering how much Tampa Bay talked up McMillan this summer, the obvious answer to the Bucs' current receiver crisis would be plugging him into Godwin's slot role and letting him work. The problem is he had ample time to earn a regular role in a pass-heavy offense as a perimeter deep threat in September and did not produce much before missing two games with a concussion.
Plays like this one make it easy to understand why he was the talk of camp, but rookies tend to build trust by being consistent and helping their quarterback avoid mistakes, which did not happen on Baker Mayfield's first interception in Week 7.
Neither McMillan nor Shepard can be the "power slot" Godwin is. Neither McMillan nor Palmer can be the field-stretcher or red-zone threat Mike Evans is. Making matters worse for all three receivers is that tight end Cade Otton has lined up in the slot more than twice as much as any other healthy Tampa Bay wideout.
The short answer to the Bucs' new receiver problem is they do not have a good one. Rather than continuing to air it out, expect Tampa Bay to rely more heavily on its running game until Evans returns and lean more on Otton and Rachaad White when it needs to pass.
Troy Franklin
There may have been no other player who NFL general managers and fantasy managers disagreed on more this spring than Franklin. The latter group had no problem taking him in the late first round of early rookie drafts. The former group disagreed, making him the 17th receiver drafted this spring. Fellow rookie Devaughn Vale stole his thunder in camp. Through the first four weeks of the season, Franklin appeared destined for the same fate that Marvin Mims suffered in Denver last year.
Franklin saw his first real bump in playing time in Week 6 - the same week Josh Reynolds landed on IR. While having his college quarterback (Bo Nix) serve as his quarterback in the NFL helped his cause as much as anything, the coaching staff is buying in as well. His first-read share over the last two games (11.1%) is a bit on the low side considering the relative lack of competition at receiver in Denver after Courtland Sutton, but it is also likely the product of head coach Sean Payton still making the rookie earn his snaps. On the plus side, his nine targets and 15.3% target share over that stretch lead the team.
Designed touches — and when they get them — are often a great way to tell how a coaching staff feels about a player. Payton got Franklin involved right away against the Saints, bringing him across the formation to eliminate any chance of contact off the line of scrimmage. While the play only resulted in a 2-yard gain, Franklin was just inches away from picking up 22 yards on a deep out about two minutes later. In all, he earned four targets in the first quarter alone.
The highlight of his Week 7 performance was at the 9:38 mark of the second quarter when he used the speed that made him such a dynamic deep threat in college to get open on a deep over route that gained 30 yards and will likely be one of his bread-and-butter routes in the pros. Perhaps most notably, he drew six targets in a game Sutton earned zero.
Does it mean Sutton is no longer the clear No. 1 in Denver? That seems highly unlikely, at least for the rest of this season. What is exciting is that Franklin's Average Separation Score is a team-high .103 for the season. He has been particularly strong on routes such as the in/dig (.222) and hitch (.143), which should be available to him given how much respect defenses should have for his speed.
The conservative nature of this offense likely means Franklin is no more than a WR4 for fantasy purposes, but his explosiveness gives him a chance to be an occasional week-winner.
