Film + Analytics: 2024 NFL Week 2 Notes

Fantasy football is a game based on statistics, but statistics without context will tell lies. Great fantasy analysis should incorporate a blend of statistical and film analysis, which will be the goal of this column every week.

I will watch the condensed version of every game this season and highlight a handful of the most important developments from my game reviews each week for fantasy managers to consider moving forward.

The Saints’ offense

There are many reasons why New Orleans is averaging 45.5 points through two games. It turns out that using motion and play-action can make a difference for an offense, especially one that has perimeter speed and offensive line questions.

To say the Saints have seen the light under new offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak might be an understatement:

• Play-action rate during the 2023 season: 14.4% (lowest in the league)

• Play-action rate during the 2024 season: 52.3% (first)

• Motion at the snap during the 2023 season: 14% (26th)

• Motion at the snap during the 2024 season: 41% (fifth)

Why does this matter?

Any kind of motion — especially during the snap — can create communication and alignment issues for the defense, which is particularly advantageous for an offense with a pair of speed merchants in Chris Olave and Rashid Shaheed. Play-action passing may create only a slight hesitation by the defense, but a small delay in the pass rush or hesitation by a linebacker dropping into coverage is often the difference between a negative passing play and a chunk gain in the NFL.

New Orleans is also having as much success running the ball (4.8 yards per carry) through two games as it has in any year since 2011. Look no further than where the Saints are running it so far.

Saints Rushing Success by Direction

Direction	Ru Att	Ru Yds	YPC	TD	First Down	10+	YAC	YAC/Att	Long
Left End	21	108	5.1	1	10	3	58	2.8	17
Left Tackle	2	19	9.5	1	1	1	6	3.0	14
Left Guard	4	22	5.5	0	1	1	12	3.0	11
Middle Left	12	74	6.2	2	5	3	47	3.9	12
Middle Right	12	52	4.3	1	3	0	34	2.8	9
Middle Right	3	20	6.7	0	1	0	15	5.0	9
Right Tackle	8	15	1.9	0	1	0	13	1.6	4
Right Tackle	5	33	6.6	0	3	2	12	2.4	17

While the Saints have been productive running virtually everywhere, it is easy to see they want to run left behind rookie LT Taliese Fuaga and C Erik McCoy. Running left or up the middle also works out nicely for Derek Carr since it is much more convenient for a right-handed quarterback to fake left and set up to throw than it is for him to fake right and take the extra time to square his body.

It usually takes defensive coordinators about four games to adjust to a new offensive wrinkle, so we should expect a couple more weeks of high-flying offense in New Orleans before the league slows Kubiak’s kids down a bit.

The Commanders' offense

To be clear, some of Washington's issues are a product of its offensive line and Kliff Kingsbury's lack of confidence in it as a pass-protection unit. To that end, Jayden Daniels has faced quick pressure on 20 percent of his drop-backs despite leading all qualified quarterbacks in the quickest time to throw (2.3 seconds).

With that said, this has been an extremely conservative offense so far. The Commanders have run a screen pass on 26.4 percent of their drop-backs (19 of 72) so far. Daniels' average depth of target is 4.9 yards. Only Patrick Mahomes (!!!) has a lower mark among regular starting quarterbacks through two games.

Lowest aDOT Among QBs (2024)

Rank	Name	Team	DB	ATT	CMP	YDS	YPA	TD	INT	aDOT	Deep Throw %
1	Tyrod Taylor	NYJ	9	8	6	36	4.5	1	0	4.4	0%
2	Patrick Mahomes	KC	62	53	38	442	8.3	3	3	4.7	8%
3	Jayden Daniels	WAS	71	53	40	410	7.7	0	0	4.9	6%
4	Malik Willis	GB	19	15	12	122	8.1	1	0	5.5	7%
5	Gardner Minshew	LV	83	71	55	533	7.5	2	2	5.7	10%

For context, the lowest aDOT among quarterbacks who played at least half of the games last season was Jake Browning at 6.3. While Daniels' aDOT decreased slightly from Week 1 (5.2) to Week 2 (4.7), the first mark was inflated by the one deep shot he just missed on to Terry McLaurin to begin the second half in the opener.

Kingsbury's offenses have never been the most aggressive in terms of stretching the field vertically, but Daniels has thrown deep (20 or more yards) only three times on 53 attempts (5.7%). By comparison, Kyler Murray's deep-throw percentage under Kingsbury was exactly 11.5% - and never lower than that - in three of their four seasons together in Arizona.

Taken one step further, neither Brock Purdy nor Bo Nix are known for their arm strength. Yet, both men have attempted eight or more deep shots so far. Kingsbury's approach through two games is borderline ridiculous for a quarterback who threw the ball deep once every six attempts on average to the likes of Malik Nabers and Brian Thomas Jr. en route to winning a Heisman Trophy at LSU in 2023.

It is also a comical use of speedsters McLaurin, Dyami Brown, and Olamide Zaccheaus. The next Randy Moss does not exist on this roster, but Brown and Zaccheaus have proven to be capable field stretchers at the very least.

McLaurin's usage is the most baffling. Not only is he the team's most complete receiver, but McLaurin is also their best vertical receiver. While he is routinely among the top 25 receivers in yards after catch, he is no Deebo Samuel in that area.

McLaurin has consistently been around the 50% mark in combined medium (10-19 yards) and deep (20-plus) targets throughout his career. He is at 33.4% through two games.

There is hope it will get better, however.

Is Kingsbury playing the long game here and setting up future opponents or just taking it slow for the sake of Daniels' development? We probably cannot expect rational thinking from the same man who refuses to move his X receiver off the left outside spot of the formation, but there were small signs of progress from Week 1 to Week 2.

With the running game experiencing the success it did in Week 2, there should be more (and likely more successful) opportunities for Daniels and McLaurin in the intermediate and deep passing game moving forward.

The Vikings’ defense

"Your scheme is crazy."

• Brock Purdy to Minnesota defensive coordinator Brian Flores after the 49ers' Week 2 loss to the Vikings

Flores won over critics last season with his ability to overcome poor personnel. The 2023 Vikings had some good players — Danielle Hunter and Josh Metellus among them — but they had no business finishing even in the middle of the pack in total defense. How did Flores pull it off? No team rushed three or six (or more) as often as Minnesota last season, which is a highly unusual dichotomy.

Blitzing defenses tend to operate that way because they trust their corners to work on an island. Conservative defenses tend to operate that way because they either do not trust their corners or believe enough in their four-man pass rush to consistently apply pressure on the quarterback.

Many defensive coordinators say they focus on late deception, giving the offense one look pre-snap and another post-snap. Flores' 2023 unit did this exceedingly well. He also did a great job of changing up who was blitzing down in and down out.

So what is Flores doing this year?

Through two games, the Vikings are on pace to exceed last year's total of four-man rushes sometime in Week 9 (their eighth game). What changed?

Two of the answers are rather obvious: Minnesota played the Giants in Week 1, which means the defense did not need to go crazy with the blitz. The other is a small sample size can be misleading.

The real answer is most likely Flores has no intention to relive 2023. Few defensive coordinators blitz just to blitz. Minnesota sought to improve its pass rush in the offseason and it is bearing fruit. The Vikings have little reason to care as much about the number of rushers if it can consistently get pressure with four while playing seven in coverage.

Although his one sack does not reflect it, Jonathan Greenard has adequately replaced Hunter so far. The primary beneficiaries of Greenard ranking among the league leaders in pressures are Patrick Jones (four sacks) and Andrew Van Ginkel (two).

What does it all mean? C.J. Stroud (Week 3), Jordan Love (Week 4), and Aaron Rodgers (Week 5, on a short week) may struggle more than many might expect in the weeks they face the Vikings.

Quentin Johnston

Head coach Jim Harbaugh and offensive coordinator Greg Roman insisted they were excited about Johnston's future this offseason after he experienced one of the most challenging rookie seasons by a rookie receiver in recent memory.

Perhaps fantasy managers thought Harbaugh was living a bit in the past remembering what Johnston did to his Michigan defense during the 2022 College Football Playoff semifinal loss to TCU (6-163-1). Many football fans likely still remember his biggest play in that game.

Some things were obvious to me duringmy film study of Johnston's college tape before the 2023 NFL Draft that should have been obvious to the previous regime.

In his draft profile, I stated his best scheme fit was going to be in an offense that was willing to use him regularly on high-probability run-after-catch routes — such as screens, crossers and hooks (or hitches). As a rookie, Johnston ran 122 go routes, which accounted for nearly 28% of his routes and was almost twice as many as any other route (hitch; 69).

In Week 2, the former first-round pick ran twice as many hitches (eight) as any other route and led the Chargers in end zone targets (two), which only makes sense as a 6-foot-3 receiver with a 40.5-inch vertical jump.

Granted, Johnstondid not need to rely on his freakish athleticism in Week 2, but the bigger point is this: a good coach should allow a player to do what he is good at to build his confidence before asking him to do everything else. Harbaugh and Roman appear to be doing that for Johnston.

Johnston’s upcoming schedule is quite daunting — he will likely see a lot of Joey Porter Jr. in Week 3, Trent McDuffie in Week 4, and Patrick Surtain II in Week 6. With that said, defenses will need to account for Johnston moving forward, which helps everyone else in this offense.

The one factor that we cannot account for from Week 2 was Josh Palmer playing about half as many snaps as he did in Week 1 — likely due to the fact he was listed as questionable with a knee injury.

The bad news for fantasy managers is that we have to wait another week to find out if Johnston can build on the best performance of his young career. The good news is — unlike last season— that we already know he has within himself to do more than he did as a rookie. What we do know is that he has impressed Justin Herbert and his coaching staff enough to handle 38.5% of the team's first read and designed targets thus far.