Film + Analytics: 2024 NFL Week 1 Notes

Fantasy football is a game based on statistics, but statistics without context will tell lies. Great fantasy analysis should incorporate a blend of statistical and film analysis, which will be the goal of this column every week.

I will watch the condensed version of every game this season and highlight a handful of the most important developments from my game reviews each week for fantasy managers to consider moving forward.

Lamar Jackson

The Ravens appeared to have no confidence in their offensive line holding up against Kansas City. How do we know this? Jackson attempted only 76 throws behind the line of scrimmage in 2023 (16.6% of his pass attempts). In Week 1 alone, that number was 12 (29.3%). Baltimore had its reasons, as it was starting three new offensive linemen, and Steve Spagnuolo's defenses are annually among the most blitz-happy units in the league.

The bigger problem was Jackson appeared too focused on beating the Chiefs by himself as a runner and took on too much punishment as a result. Fantasy managers should not be overly concerned about the number of rush attempts since Week 1 marked the 15th time in his career he had at least 16 in a game. However, what could become an issue soon is a repeat of his nine scrambles in the opener - more than he had in any game last year — while also not trying to do everything in his power to avoid contact.

Absorbing too much punishment is not a good idea for a 230-pound quarterback (which is how much Jackson weighed two years ago), but it is even worse for a signal-caller who is now listed at 205. For those that may not remember, the two-time league MVP's primary focus this offseason was to drop weight to rediscover the speed he had entering the league.

The two-time league MVP cannot continue to run at the same rate he did in the opener — that much is not in question. Jackson's 176 carries in 2019 is a league record for a quarterback for a reason: 16 rushing attempts for a 205-pound signal-caller is not sustainable (17-game pace of 272).

J.K. Dobbins

The biggest revelation of the opening week may have been Dobbins. His Week 1 rushing production (10 carries for 135 yards and a touchdown) was a nice first step to becoming the first running back in modern history to enjoy any kind of success following an Achilles tear. However, that is one reason fantasy managers need to keep their expectations in check. D'Onta Foreman's breakout season in 2022 — four years after he tore his Achilles — remains the only example of a back who overcame this injury to produce a top-25 fantasy season ever.

Another reason for pause: most of the 107 rushing yards Dobbins amassed on his two big runs came as the result of assignment errors by the Raiders' run defense. Dobbins' first big run (46 yards) happened in part because Christian Wilkins — lined up as the left defensive tackle on the play — easily beat RG Trey Pipkins with a swim move on his outside shoulder on third-and-2.

The problem with Wilkins' outside move is that it took him out of the A-gap, where the play went. This freed up C Bradley Bozeman and LG Zion Johnson to clear out the two remaining players in the box who had a chance to hold Dobbins to a modest gain.

Dobbins showed great patience on his 61-yard sprint late in the fourth quarter, but this time LB Divine Deablo failed to do his job. Deablo appeared to lose Dobbins because he filled in a clogged A-gap - rather than identifying the hole that was forming in the B-gap - and made himself an easy target for Boseman. The result was the second-longest run of Dobbins' NFL career.

Run defense often comes down to alignment and assignment. While defensive breakdowns occur regularly, not every player has the ability to take advantage of it. Dobbins deserves his fair share of credit for doing just that. The jury should remain out on him, however, as only 33 of his yards came after contact,

Is there a strong chance Dobbins will deliver again in Week 2 against the Panthers without stud DL Derrick Brown? Absolutely. With that said, Dobbins' injury history and the mountain of evidence against running backs trying to return from Achilles surgery may cut short this potential feel-good story.

Tank Bigsby

Bigsby's inability to do even the simplest things on a football field quickly led to him becoming an afterthought as a rookie and largely contributed to Travis Etienne's RB3 finish last season. To his credit, Bigsby showed out well in the preseason and carried that over to Week 1.

After failing to break even one run for 15 or more yards on 50 carries in 2023, he managed two explosive runs on 12 attempts against the Dolphins. His 3.92 yards after contact was a huge improvement on last season's 2.38, as was his 32% snap share. Five of his first seven rush attempts covered at least seven yards, while Etienne's longest went for 11.

Head coach Doug Pederson talked up a bigger role for Bigsby this season and followed through in the opener. The Auburn product checked in on the team's fourth offensive snap (after the Jaguars' three-and-out on their first possession) and was on the field to begin each of the Jaguars' two touchdown drives, suggesting he was a key part of the game plan.

Etienne maintained a firm grasp on receiving work (12 routes to Bigsby's three) and handled Jacksonville's only carry inside the 5 (a 1-yard score), which saved his fantasy day. However, even that comes with a bit of caveat — Pederson expressed a great deal of confidence in Bigsby's ability to thrive in short-yardage situations this summer. Expect the second-year back to get some of the goal-line work soon if he continues to run with as much authority as he did in Week 1.

One game is exactly that — one game. With that said, fantasy managers who are heavily invested in Etienne have a right to be concerned. Pederson has repeatedly spoken about trying to lighten Etienne's workload to preserve the explosive element he brings to the offense. A determined Bigsby gives them the kind of back that should theoretically accentuate Etienne's home run-hitting ability.

A fresh and healthy Etienne should remain efficient enough to remain a quality fantasy starter, but he is highly unlikely to live up to his second-round cost in drafts this summer if Bigsby continues to run as well as he did in Week 1. Conversely, Bigsby could quickly emerge as a quality flex option.

Jameson Williams

Speaking of possible redemption stories, Williams' first two seasons as a pro were forgettable. There was the ACL tear in college that led to his first year being a wash. There was also the six-game gambling suspension that ruined his second season. He flashed the immense upside the Lions thought he had in Week 1, as he matched or set career highs in several categories en route to earning nine targets. His final line: five catches for 121 yards and a touchdown.

The metrics proved Williams' day at the office was no fluke: Williams ranked third in the league in Average Separation Score and fourth in Win Rate (minimum 15 routes) in Week 1.

There is more: he ran a route on 90.3% of drop-backs, recorded a team air-yard share of 68.1%, and served as the first-read on 42.9% of Detroit's first-read and designed targets. It is the last of those three metrics that should raise an eyebrow, especially on an offense where he is competing for targets with Amon-Ra St. Brown, Sam LaPorta, and Jahmyr Gibbs.

Was there some element of the Lions trying to establish him this week to make life easier for everyone else down the road? It is possible, but that is not the point. His double move against Tre'Davious White is what should thrill his fantasy managers the most. The 29-year-old White — less than a year removed from tearing his Achilles — may no longer be at the height of his powers, but it is rare for any veteran corner to get beat as badly as he did by Williams on his 52-yard touchdown.

It is going to be difficult for a receiver who figures to make his living on downfield throws (15.4 average depth of target in the opener after 16.4 in 2022 and 15.8 in 2023) to be a consistent producer in fantasy while also battling the likes of St. Brown, LaPorta, and Gibbs for targets. The good news is that Williams was not drafted to be a weekly fantasy starter. Enjoy him now for what he was supposed to be over the last two seasons: a flex (and occasional WR3) option capable of delivering week-winning upside.

Isaiah Likely

If the biggest surprise to come out of the NFL's opening weekend was not Dobbins, it was Likely. Was the season opener a passing of the torch of sorts from Mark Andrews to Likely? Or was it the product of Andrews working his way back from an August car accident and receiving a healthy amount of attention from the Kansas City defense? As is usually the case in football, more than one thing can be true.

Let us begin with Likely. He was the talk of training camp in Baltimore after performing as an elite fantasy tight end at the end of last season, which should have been enough reason for him to be universally owned before Week 1. The analytics backed up the legitimacy of last year's breakout, as Fantasy Points' very own Scott Barrett noted earlier this month.

The Ravens operated out of 12 personnel (one running back, two tight ends) on 39 of their 74 offensive snaps in Week 1 and gave most of their slot snaps to Andrews (72.2% slot rate) and Likely (45.2), which is highly encouraging for a quarterback who likes to throw over the middle as often as Lamar Jackson.

Regarding Andrews, it probably cannot be overstated that he had only about a week of practice before the opener following a multi-week layoff due to the car accident. He did not appear to be moving as well as he did before his ankle injury last year. Did conditioning play a role in that? Possibly. The Chiefs also went to great lengths to make sure Andrews was not going to be a major factor.

Assuming Andrews' movement was compromised due to conditioning, he should be ready to assume his usual TE1 duties for fantasy teams by the end of the month. That does not mean Likely is going away (or at least should not) anytime soon. It should be clear to offensive coordinator Todd Monken by now that his core four in the passing game should be Zay Flowers, Rashod Bateman, Andrews and Likely.