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Quarterbacks
Joe Burrow
So there seems to be mass hysteria around Joe Burrow’s latest hand injury. There’s always risk when it comes to any surgery – sure. There’s risk of complications, persistent swelling and a ton of other secondary issues. But the bottom line is that an overwhelming number of athletes with this injury bounce back and do fine. There’s evidence here, too.
If there are any concerns at all, it’s really about longevity for Burrow, who has now dealt with a major ACL injury, a significant calf issue that could implicate his Achilles at some point and now this hand surgery. More specifically, there’s an increased risk of arthritis in his hand and knee now compared to when he entered the league.
Still, ironmen like Aaron Rodgers and even Cam Newton, to a certain degree, overcame significant injury histories. Putting talent and fantasy football relevance aside for a minute, even Carson Wentz had a rough go of it in terms of bad injury luck, but before being benched, he survived an entire season. Need more examples? Guys like Donovan McNabb played 13 full seasons despite a crazy injury history. The point I’m making here is that in 2024, there’s minimal reason to fade Burrow or his weapons. In dynasty? You might consider moving on from Burrow 1-2 seasons before you see a cliff – because the cliff might be steep.
Risk: Slightly Above Average
2024 Outlook: His ADP is fine
Anthony Richardson
Listen, I don’t need to regale you with the fact that in his three healthy games in 2023, Richardson averaged 23 fantasy points which would have been good for QB2 on the year. No quarterback averaged more fantasy points scored per dropback. I don’t need to bring up the fact that he was on pace to rush for almost 750 yards. There’s no need at all to bring up that he probably would have realistically scored somewhere in the neighborhood between 10 and 15 rushing touchdowns.
Stop drooling. I said there’s no need to picture that.
Let’s start with history. Yes, Richardson injured his right AC joint as a senior in high school, ending his 2019 season before he went to UF. Yes, this injury could have compromised the strength of his shoulder four years later and contributed to his current AC joint fracture. And yes, there’s some risk of reinjury. However, AC joint sprains in particular are one of the most common reported QB injuries. Richardson’s injury was one of the most severe cases.
Now, some might point to Aaron Rodgers and Tony Romo as quarterbacks with AC joint sprains that led to extended missed time. The problem is those injuries were to non-throwing arms. For that reason, Richardson does not have great comps. Still, players like Dak Prescott have played through the lesser version of this injury before.
As long as Richardson rehabs properly, his upside is worth any potential downside. The risk of arthritis is lower compared to injuries to the inside of the shoulder joint like a labrum (think early career Drew Brees).
If you’re worried about injuries in general for Ant, just take a stroll down memory lane by searching Rodgers’ injury history. Or Wentz’s injury history (ignore the fact that he was the picture of health right before he imploded between the ears). Or the fact that Cam’s career-altering shoulder injury actually came while trying to make a tackle. NFL players, even QBs, get injured. So the default setting is that they’re not injury prone until they are.
As for running QBs and injury rates, read this piece if you’re worried. The primary concern for Richardson isn’t whether or not he should be escaping the pocket. The primary concern is what he does once he leaves the pocket. If he can learn to protect his body more like Lamar Jackson, Richardson is in for one of the best fantasy careers we’ve seen for a QB. The upside is absolutely worth any risk he brings.
Risk: Slightly Above Average
2024 Outlook: Worth all risk involved because of his ceiling
Kirk Cousins
Captain Kirk tore his right Achilles tendon and had surgery to repair it in November. Since then he’s been on Dancing With the Stars, making Week 1 all but a lock. But the problem was never whether he’ll return – it's what he will look like once he is back. That and the re-injury rate, which is generally less than 5%.
It's important to note that this is Cousins’ plant leg while throwing, meaning he will be placing more stress through the repaired tendon than Rodgers, who injured his left Achilles. So what are the takeaways?
Realistically the biggest risk is that the 35-year-old Cousins has recurring calf strains throughout the season and has to sit 2-3 weeks. Or he plays through it the way Burrow did at the start of 2023. The best (and most likely) scenario is he’s now even less mobile than before and checks down to Bijan Robinson early and often. So draft Bijan. Kirk is fine.
Risk: Significantly Above Average
2024 Outlook: Decent value. Draft his skill players.
Aaron Rodgers
Rodgers’ situation isn’t much different than Cousins’. They’re both at risk for calf strains as older QBs, but this shouldn’t impact their teammates’ performance much. The fact that this isn’t Rodgers’ plant leg is a wash considering he’s five years older than Kirk. Draft Breece Hall and Garrett Wilson.
Risk: Significantly Above Average
2024 Outlook: Draft his skill players.
Deshaun Watson
Much talk has been made about Joe Burrow’s unprecedented wrist injury, but Deshaun Watson has also entered uncharted waters. His shoulder injury was a strange one that required fixation of the fracture. This injury is vastly different from Richardson’s as the portion of bone that was fractured sits inside the joint. For those who have followed me for a while, you know that injury inside any joint immediately raises the risk of early-onset arthritis.
The closest comp for this injury is Drew Brees’ 2005 labrum repair. Obviously Brees had a Hall of Fame career but he admitted himself if it weren’t for his shoulder giving out, he could have played longer. That’s the primary risk for Watson is a shortened career as opposed to immediately looking like a noodle arm. He should be back by Week 1 as long as there are no reports of a setback. Given his ADP, takin some Watson is … fine.
Risk: Slightly Above Average to Significantly Above Average
2024 Outlook: Should be fine in 2024
Justin Herbert
Hebert suffered a “plantar fascia” injury and will reportedly be in a boot for two weeks. He’ll bump right up to Week 1. This is a similar injury to Tony Pollard from 2021. That year, Pollard missed one game, but returned shortly. Herbert can play through this, but his rushing upside is truly capped at this point. His ADP is low, but given the likely run-heavy nature of this offense, it's not likely Herbert will show a consistent ceiling this year. It’s obvious that the Chargers could start slow. Herbert will miss almost all of training camp trying to learn a new offense and with new teammates that need to gain chemistry.
Risk: Above Average to Significantly Above Average
2024 Outlook: There are plenty of other QB options in 2024
Running Backs
Jonathan Brooks
Brooks had isolated ACL surgery on Dec. 5, 2023, making his estimated nine-month return right around opening day of the 2024 NFL season. However, given the reported nature of his injury and his age, it would not be shocking to see Brooks on an NFL field by Week 2 or 3. Now this goes back to what teams should do vs. what they will do. If the Panthers want to give their 2nd-round draft pick adequate time to get right, they can wait to bring him back in Week 5 at the latest.
In terms of production, there aren’t great comps for a rookie RB coming off of ACL rehab. So, I want to tread lightly – but Todd Gurley is the best we got. Gurley had surgery around the same time in the college season as Brooks. Then after sitting the first two games of the 2015 season and seeing just 28% of snaps in his first game back, Gurley bounced back to win Offensive Rookie of the Year finishing as RB8 on a FPG basis. Keep that finish in mind.
That year the Rams were middle of the pack in scoring and in expected points added via rushing. Furthermore, after ACL surgery most RBs see a dip in Year One efficiency. So what helped keep Gurley afloat? Ten rushing touchdowns and a healthy 3 fantasy points added via receiving work per game. This is crucial to bouncing back after an ACL tear because efficiency takes a major dip. Guys like Adrian Peterson, Breece Hall, and Gurley himself all saw a healthy amount of passing game work.
An even more ironic statistic is that together in 2023, Miles Sanders and Chuba Hubbard combined to average 16.2 FPG. In 2023, that would have been – wait for it – RB8.
Moving on to the criteria for successful post-ACL RBs. We’ll complete this exercise with Nick Chubb later but here’s how Brooks stands up to the Breece Hall test:
Minimum of nine months to rehab - yay!
High NFL draft capital - yay!
26 years old or younger - yay!
Minimal complexity of injury - yay!
Top 5% athleticism scores - close but boo
Projected pass-catching work and high touch volume - boo again (at worst)
So the question is simple: Can the Panthers be at least mediocre in 2024 after finishing dead last in total offense and 20th in rushing offense in 2023? Will they give enough receiving work over to Books to boost production? Brooks isn’t likely to be this year’s Breece. He may not even match Gurley’s rookie year. What Brooks is likely to provide is solid late-season production and easily pay off his RB28 ADP.
Risk: Slightly Above Average
2024 Outlook: Even in a bad offense, could be a league winner
Nick Chubb
Chubb suffered a multi-ligament left knee injury in Week 2, 2023 that required two surgeries. Both of these surgeries and his subsequent recovery are crucial to understand. The first surgery was on Sept. 29 of 2023. However, the time-limiting factor is primarily the ACL surgery, which was performed on November 14. It is not uncommon to wait between surgeries, though it isn’t necessarily a good thing.
Dynasty managers, this is especially important: You recall that Chubb tore everything except his ACL and MCL in his left knee while in college in 2015. Now, he suffered another dislocation with additional damage in the same knee. The hill that Chubb has to climb just to simply get back in shape and play again at 28 years old is one thing. Fending off early-onset arthritis after two massive injuries in the same knee is another. From a dynasty perspective, I’d offload Chubb ASAP while he still has some perceived value. Because it could easily get worse. Think Todd Gurley worse.
For redraft managers, the date of the ACL surgery is key. For first-time isolated ACL injuries in guys nearly a decade younger than Chubb, nine months is the bare minimum rehab period before full clearance to return to practice. In Chubb’s case, that date is 8/14/24, which is three weeks into training camp and the middle of preseason. With his 2015 knee injury in the past, additional damage (ACL), and the potential for complications from the first surgery (stiffness/swelling) – it's extremely difficult to see the Browns bringing him back that quickly.
Chubb has been an iron-man, missing just seven games in his first five seasons. Unfortunately, he only meets a few traits to be considered an outlier performer post-ACL surgery:
- Minimum of 9 months to rehab - yay!
- High NFL draft capital - yay!
- 26 years old or younger - boo
- Minimal complexity of injury - double boo
- Top 5% athleticism scores - close but triple boo
- Projected pass catching work and high touch volume - boo again
Look, there are simply some guys who are truly built differently, and Chubb is one of those guys. For that reason, I won’t speak in absolutes and give Chubb an arbitrary 5-10% chance to come back and return as a back-end fantasy RB1. Those might seem like long odds, but 30% of NFL RBs never return after an ACL tear.
At best, we’ll see Chubb begin taking contact towards the end of camp in mid- to late-August and be ready to return to the field by the end of September. If Chubb has no complications, his ceiling is slightly higher than Javonte Williams last season (11.2 FPG – RB31). There’s a good chance that he starts the season on the PUP list and misses the first four games of the season at minimum. Lastly, the average RB post-ACL in Year One sees a 12% dip in fantasy production. Shaving that off of Chubb’s last three seasons would have made him Josh Jacobs (RB18) in 2023 - not exactly a league winner, crazy heavy squat be damned.
Risk: Significantly Above Average to EXTREME RISK
2024 Outlook: He’s built different but faces an uphill battle
J.K. Dobbins
For a minute, let’s put Dobbins’ career-altering ACL+ injury aside and discuss his Achilles injury in a vacuum. Here are Dobbins’ pros and cons about returning to play and performance metrics post-achilles rupture.
Pros list:
Relative advancements in tendon rehab
Younger age
High NFL draft capital
Crazy pre-injury athleticism (speed specifically)
Cons list:
72% return to sport rate in NFL players after an Achilles repair
50% reduction in “power rating” (imperfect metric but the point remains)
RBs & LBs have the worst outcomes
The pathophysiology of the injury
The last one is important and remains the reason why ACL and Achilles injuries are vastly different. See, the Achilles is an extension of the calf muscles. The calf muscles transmit force to the foot and ankle via the Achilles tendon. When the tendon is repaired and remodeled, it’s never the same.
We’ve been through this with Cam Akers’ hasty return from this injury — which was truly incredible in its own right and shouldn’t be ignored — but even then, Akers’ performance was… fine. Now he’s out of a starting job. The bottom line is this injury has yet to completely shed the career-killer reputation. This will be an uphill battle for Dobbins, and the chances of him returning and being a major factor this season are slim to none. At his current ADP, there’s very little risk. But based on history, there’s very little upside either. In 100 drafts, I’ll take Dobbins 5 times max.
Risk: Significantly Above Average to EXTREME RISK
2024 Outlook: Exposure to Dobbins comes with a limited ceiling and rock-bottom floor
Austin Ekeler
There was some optimism about Ekeler initially until I discussed this with Ryan Heath. See, there’s a decent chance that Ekeler – the dude who rushed for 116 yards and caught 4 balls in Week 1 of 2023 – is legitimately washed.
Recall that Ekeler suffered a brutal high ankle sprain in the first game of last season. Even though there’s a small chance Ekeler played on a minor fracture in 2023, it's a fact that in year 8 RBs average 73% of career production. Sure enough, Ekeler is walking into a presumably below-average offense competing against a younger and capable backfield mate with a rookie QB in Jayden Daniels who will run a ton. Even if Ekeler isn’t totally washed, would it be surprising to see a major dip in touches and efficiency? Not a chance.
The Commanders offensive line graded out #29 in former-NFL scout Scott DiBenedetto’s rankings. Unless Brian Robinson Jr. is injured, the likelihood is Ekeler — at best — has a limited ceiling and barely beats his ADP.
Risk: Significantly Above Average
2024 Outlook: Father time comes for us all
Javonte Williams
I was totally out on Javonte last year as 2023 Injury Prone Draft Guide purchasers are aware. Well, I’m back in, baby.
Admittedly his ADP was scary low to start the offseason but has steadily increased, which I think is correct. What has really helped is that HC Sean Payton has been making positive comments about the Denver running back once per month (literally) since June. Listen, nobody is trying to tell you the Denver offense will be potent this year, but given the high rate of RB targets in Payton-run offenses, along with Bo Nix’s own propensity to check the ball down, Javonte could be in for more volume than most of us expect.
Oh, right. The ACL.
It's worth noting that Williams’ complex injury was unlikely to turn out well in 2023. However, you should know that RBs who survive into year 2 after an ACL tear fare much better.
NFL RBs who survived to year 2 post-ACL improved in:
Missed tackles forced (+17%)
Yards after contact (+9%)
Receptions (+39%)
Fantasy points per game (+132%)!!
Even if Williams sees a 10-15% degradation in skill – which is not necessarily expected – his outlook at RB33 is below his floor. Williams is one of my favorite RB2’s to target when I’m going anchor RB. Lastly, here’s a list of RBs who improved by at least 50% in fantasy PPG from year 1 post ACL to year 2 post ACL:
Dalvin Cook
Gus Edwards
Saquon Barkley
Jamaal Charles
Todd Gurley
Rashaad Penny
Is Javonte at least Gus Edwards or Rashaad Penny? I think so. Here’s a last tidbit for you: despite it all, Javonte was actually 7% better in 2023 compared to 2022 on a fantasy PPG basis.
Risk: Slightly Above Average
2024 Outlook: Phoenix from the ashes
Kyren Williams
Listen, if you read the thesis of my book you know that I’m not one to spread injury fear. Still, a guy like Kyren Williams merits a discussion. If you read the thesis you also know that the best predictor of future injury is previous injury. So let’s look at Williams’ history since entering the league:
June 2022 - foot fracture
September 2022 - high ankle sprain/fracture
October 2023 - (high?) ankle
May 2024 - foot “issue”
Kyren’s talent is not in question. He’s the starter when healthy. The question is will his feet/ankles hold up to the workload? Enter Blake Corum. Given how easy it is to get Corum, I do not want you to leave any draft without him. He should not be on your waiver wire. Hold him until you are absolutely desperate for another roster spot. If Kyren goes down, he’s a legitimate league-winner.
So should you handcuff Williams? Generally speaking that’s not an optimal draft strategy because of opportunity cost. Especially if there are higher upside players going around him. However if Corum falls below his ADP and you already have plenty of upside on your bench, I give you permission to take him as a handcuff.
Risk: Significantly Above Average
2024 Outlook: Risk is afoot
Jahmyr Gibbs
Gibbs injured his hamstring per reports. We’re going to operate under the assumption this is the same hamstring as last season that caused him to miss 2 games. Since 2018, 80% of RBs in-season return within 2 weeks. In-season there is also a risk of re-injury that’s right around 24%. When RBs re-injure the hamstring, the mean amount of missed time is 2 weeks again. The long of it is that the Lions need to put this fire out before Week 1. I expect them to do that. Keep drafting Gibbs with a slightly higher risk of re-injury.
Risk: Significantly Above Average
2024 Outlook: Soft tissue issue
Jaylen Warren
Warren injured his hamstring in Pittsburgh’s second preseason. We’re going to operate under the assumption this is the same hamstring that caused him to miss 1.5 games in 2022. Since 2018, 80% of RBs in-season return to play within 2 weeks. There is also a risk of re-injury that’s right around 24%. When RBs re-injure the hamstring, the average amount of missed time is 2 weeks (again). Warren should be handled similarly to Gibbs in that there’s now reason to split Najee/Warren bags 50/50. He should be back by Week 1 until we hear otherwise.
Christian McCaffrey
CMChas a calf injury he’s nursing which first popped up in Week 18 of last season. Which is suspicious because it felt like it was an excuse to sit out a meaningless game. Arguably the next few weeks of camp are also meaningless…Taking our conspiracy caps off we need to operate as if it’s a legit injury. The Niners have said this will be a 2 week issue for CMC which matches the data. Additionally since 2018 there have been 25 other NFL RBs with a calf injury and only 2/25 have gone on to have a recurrence. Before you ask, only 1 has gone on to tear their achilles and seems to be the outlier.
Wide Receivers
Keenan Allen
Phew. I owe the entire Allen family an apology. Here’s what I said in last year’s Draft Guide.
“For this first time in his career, I would consider Allen sneaky risky as opposed to generally safe”
So what did Allen do? Shoved it directly down my pie hole finishing as WR3 on a PPG basis in half PPR, missing no time due to the hamstring. This was, of course, also a career year for the former Charger. In my defense, there was no real way to predict the outlier outcome and we can’t simply play the result.
So here we are again with a 32-year-old Allen. Now, will Allen provide another WR3 overall season? Even if he’s healthy, that’s not likely. Can he play in 14-16 games and provide top 15-ish value? Sure. Just remember that a soft tissue recurrence is still at play, and he’s a high-risk/moderate-reward type player in 2024.
Risk: Significantly Above Average
2024 Outlook: High risk/moderate reward
Cooper Kupp
In 2021, Cooper Kupp averaged 21.6 half-PPR fantasy points per game, the highest mark for a WR in nine seasons. He followed that up in 2022 by averaging 18.2 half-PPR points and finished as the WR1 in PPG—again.
In 2022, Kupp broke his ankle but was still – rightfully so – a top-10 pick by ADP. Then what happened?
Here’s the 2023 story of Cooper Kupp:
8/1/2023: Injured hamstring in camp
8/31/2023: Hamstring setback
Weeks 1-4: OUT due to hamstring
Week 5-6: Kupp averages 20 points
Week 7: Puka erupts for 154 yards, Kupp scores 5.9 points
Week 8: Staffford is injured and also misses Week 9/ Kupp scores 4.1 and 5.8 points in those 2 games. Puka scores 4.3 and 3.2 points in those 2 games
Week 11: Cooper Kupp injures ankle and scores 1.3 points
Week 12: Kupp scores 3.3 points,Puka 2.7 points
Weeks 13-17: Kupp averages 14.8 points, good for WR11. Puka finishes as WR3.
There’s no denying it — the context of the Rams offense has changed by adding Puka, who has stepped into the downfield role. But how exactly has that impacted Kupp? Let’s compare Kupp’s 2022 numbers to the last 4 weeks of his 2023.
Cooper Kupp Weeks 13-17 in 2023:
Team air yards share: 20%
Team target share: 24.6%
YPRR: 2.0
Cooper Kupp in 2022:
Team air yards: 34%
Team target share: 30%
YPRR: 2.64
The obvious impact Puka has made on Kupp is in the air yards share. So, even though Puka’s target share in the final weeks of the season was 23.5% (compared to Kupp’s 25%) Puka’s targets are worth more.
Kupp isn’t washed.
The next point to bring up is the 33% recurrence rate in hamstring injuries and the fact that the older a player is, the more likely a recurrence is to happen. If only there was a 31-year-old previously top WR we tried to write off as washed because of a severe hamstring (Keenan Allen). It turns out he overcame the recurrence rate.
Lastly, here are the last two years of teammate WRs who have finished inside the top 25 on a PPG basis:
2023
Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle: WR1 and WR25
Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk: WR9 and WR14
Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp WR7 and WR27 (Last four weeks of the season WR5/WR11)
2022:
Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle: WR4 and WR13
A.J. Brown and Devonta Smith: WR7 and WR16
Mike Evans and Chris Godwin: WR14 and WR20
Brandon Aiyuk and Deebo Samuel: WR24 and WR25
Be honest: how surprised would you be if the Rams' top wideouts both finished as top 10 WRs with Sean McVay in control? Sure, there's a risk Kupp falls off or is reinjured. But the truth is that the median outcome is that Kupp finishes as a top 15-20 WR again. And even if it isn’t the most likely outcome, he can still finish inside the top 5. He’s worth any perceived risk.
Risk: Slightly Above Average - Significantly Above Average
2024 Outlook: There’s a risk but totally worth it
Christian Watson
We’ve all seen #ThighGapGate on the internet, and even though some managers are taking this to the bank, there are a few details to tease out. These are best demonstrated as a set of questions:
Was the gap in Christian Watson’s leg sizes present before his injuries, or did two years of injuries lead to the gap?
In a sport that is largely asymmetrical, does the size difference really matter?
Did the Green Bay medical staff already try to correct it?
How many athletes who have attempted to correct an “asymmetry” actually showed an observable difference? Alvin Kamara would like a word here.
The point: it's great to hear Watson and his team are trying to resolve a recurring problem. But what are the facts?
Previous injury is the best predictor of future injury — specifically when it comes to soft tissue. What's worse, a high density of type II muscle fibers (“quick twitch” fibers) is a risk factor for hamstring injuries in some athletes. So yes, that sub 4.4 40 could be hampering Watson’s full recovery.
Since 2018, the highest reinjury rate from year to year has been hamstring strains in WRs. Odell Beckham and Deebo Samuel are players who struggled with hammy issues in Years 1 and 2. However, OBJ didn’t miss time in Year 2, and Deebo’s body type and physical demands are vastly different from Watson’s. That leaves us with the legend of Isaac Bruce, which again is imperfect as he fought off hamstring strains in Years 3 and 4.
The last in line to buck the trend: Will Fuller. Strangely. Fuller missed zero games due to injury in college. In NFL Years 1-3, he missed multiple games due to a hamstring injury. It seems the problem compounded instead of improved. This followed him into the 2019 season, meaning Fuller had nearly a calendar year to get his hammies right while rehabbing the ACL but no dice.
Fuller also took extreme measures to get himself right but never could. This is, of course, a shame, as he was electric when available.
The takeaway: Watson’s floor, plain and simple, is Fuller. Still, it's hard to shake the fact that in his last 2 regular-season games Watson scored 20 and 27 PPR points good for WR8. The WRs in Green Bay are all highly talented and Watson will likely need consistent volume in addition to good injury luck to hit top-15 value. Still, at his current ADP, it’s not hard to click his name and give him one more chance in 2024.
Risk: Above Average to EXTREME RISK
2024 Outlook: Everyone deserves second chances – especially at this ADP
Mike Williams
Williams gets a bad rap for missing time due to injury, but the narrative is overblown. From 2018 to 2022, the wanna-be WWE Superstar has been catching contested balls and swiftly getting Rock Bottom-ed to the ground in 16-15-15-16 and 13 games. In other words, before the ACL, he missed just under two games per season. That’s beyond the point.
Now, the soon-to-be 30-year-old is fighting to bounce back – but he’s facing an uphill battle. Why? Because 63% of WRs see at least a 13% production dip in year 1 post-ACL. And the names on the list of guys who were successful, well… they don’t exactly look or play like Mike Williams does:
Courtland Sutton
Jordy Nelson
Allen Robinson
Cooper Kupp
Julian Edelman
Jeremy Maclin
A ceiling year for Mike Williams would be something like 11 half PPR points per game, which would certainly beat his WR60 price tag. Still, that translates as a high-end WR3 at best. Here are some WRs I’d rather take a chance on that go around Mike Williams’ current ADP:
Dontayvion Wicks
Josh Downs
Ja'Lynn Polk
Jahan Dotson
Xavier Legette
Risk: Significantly Above Average
2024 Outlook: Would rather take a flier elsewhere
DeAndre Hopkins
Based on the timeline given and the tape job visible at practice, Hopkins could be dealing with an LCL sprain. The good news here is that this injury is on the opposite knee that Hopkins injured back in 2021 (and then re-injured in 2022). That was his right leg. The tape I saw in training camp before the injury was announced was on his left knee.
We do not have clarity from the Titans on the exact extent of the injury. If it is an LCL injury, Hopkins’ best comps are Darren Waller — who missed four games — and his own teammate, Treylon Burks, who missed about 3 weeks of camp last season.
Worst case scenario: Hopkins misses Week 1.
Don’t forget that Nuk is entering Year 12, and receivers at this point of their career typically average 70.6% of their career average output (according to Ryan Heath’s Age Curves). This means we should expect that Hopkins will average around 11.5 FPG this season (WR42 in PPR FPG), making him a WR3 or WR4 weekly option.
Risk: Above Average
2024 Outlook: ADP will dip. He’s fine as a WR3/4
Marquise Brown
Brown sustained the same injury that Tyreek Hill suffered in 2019. Hill missed a month of time and that seems about right for Brown, too. I expect Brown to miss Week 1 but ready to return by Week 3 at the absolute latest. This is a bit of a freak accident so the reinjury risk is low.
Risk: Slightly above average
2024 Outlook: ADP is fine
Puka Nacua
Nacua has a bursa sac injury which is oddly specific and scary sounding. The short story? He banged his knee and it's inflamed. This shouldn’t cause him to miss any time and it shouldn’t pop up again. A small complication is Nacua does have a history of knee issues in general. This shouldn’t budge his ADP in the best ball streets.
Josh Downs
Downs has a high ankle sprain but the sky is not falling. He’ll have a whole month to recover and only 20% of high ankles in WRs end up taking longer than 6 weeks. Plus, in their second week post injury WRs production is back to 94%. Now, there is a 32% reinjury rate but that’s specifically in guys who try to bounce back after 2-3 weeks. That’s in the range of outcomes for Downs but not enough to scare me off. He’ll be fine long-term and likely ready by Week 1.
Tight Ends
Mark Andrews
On Nov. 16, 2023, Andrews was ruled out for the remainder of the regular season with a fractured fibula. As noted, he attempted to return by the AFC Championship but was predictably limited. Now, he’s had the entire offseason to rehab and recover. Barring abnormal complications, Andrews should have no problems returning by Week 1 in 2024.
The most notable comp for a top TE coming back from this type of injury is TJ Hockenson from 2020. He followed up his 2019 ankle fracture with a cool 67/723/6 receiving (on 101 targets) while playing in all 16 games. That was good for TE7 in 2020 on a FPG basis, which is likely the floor for Andrews. His current ADP is TE4 at pick 49 based on Underdog – meaning it might be even lower in home leagues. He’s 14 picks after Sam LaPorta and behind Trey McBride. I would get as much Andrews as possible before gamers come to their senses.
Risk: Average
2024 Outlook: ADP is great
T.J. Hockenson
The Vikings TE had surgery to repair his torn ACL on January 29th of this year. Hockenson also injured his MCL, but only had his ACL operated on. Hockenson admitted that the Vikings “haven’t really put a timeline” on his recovery. This makes sense with the established nine-month rule of thumb for ACL returns being considered.
When looking at wide receivers who had ACL surgery in January or February since 2013 – a less physical position which implies the ability to return faster than a TE – the results aren’t promising:
Paul Richardson - November return
Devin Smith - November return
Eli Rogers - November return
Chris Godwin - September return. Then injured his hamstring (October return).
Michael Gallup - October return
Odell Beckham Jr. – Missed Weeks 1-2, returned Week 3 late September
In terms of tight ends who are a similar archetype to Hockenson, the sample is small but does something like this:
Rob Gronkowski - January surgery and Week 1 return
Zach Ertz - November surgery and Week 1 return
Logan Thomas - December surgery and Week 1 return. Then Week 4 calf injury
None of these TEs had surgery as late as Hockenson. Some might argue that Gronk’s eight-month return sets the precedent here. The problem in Hockenson’s case is that, even at an accelerated eight-month return, it still leaves plenty of room to start him on the PUP and not play until Week 5 in October. Even though Gronk returned that quickly, he wasn’t able to handle his usual workload. Gronkowski was capped at 60% of the snaps until Week 5 of the 2014 season. Aside from timing, his size – 6’5” and 250 pounds – is working against Hockenson. It could take big boys longer to truly get their feet under them.
Gronkowski, Ertz, and Thomas all saw their efficiency drop in Year 1 post-ACL surgery. Gronk’s yards per target dipped by 13.1% to a career-low at that point (9.9 career YPT to 8.3 in 2014). Ertz and Thomas were both on the wrong side of 30 when they sustained their injuries, and both suffered big dips in efficiency measured by YPT. In Ertz’s case, he averaged a pathetic 4.3 YPT last season in his first year off his torn ACL. That’s a 39.5% drop compared to his career baseline (7.1 YPT). Thomas’ efficiency dropped by 16% in 2022 post-ACL compared to his career average. Luckily, Hockenson does have youth on his side. He just turned 27.
Hockenson had 95 receptions and finished as the TE2 in fantasy points per game with nearly 1,000 receiving yards in 2023. It was his fourth straight season as a top-8 scoring TE by FPG. He has returned well from injury in the past, following up his 2019 ankle fracture with a cool 67/723/6 receiving (on 101 targets) while playing in all 16 games on a worse Lions offense in 2020. Still, he’s three years older now, and it's hard to take a flier on him in best ball, considering gamers will likely have to take at least 4-5 zeroes from him to start the season. A dip in efficiency should be expected in his first year coming back from injury, too. Expect a Week 7-8 return near Halloween (or later). He’s an I.R. stash only for seasonal leagues.
Risk: Significantly Above Average
2024 Outlook: IR stash at best
George Kittle
Kittle finally underwent a procedure to correct a recurrent groin strain this offseason. This is (presumably) the same procedure Rashod Bateman had done in 2021. Athletes who undergo this surgery continue performing at a high level but play fewer games per season (12 vs. 14) and last a shorter time in the NFL (3 years vs. 4 years). Realistically for a freak like Kittle, maybe he still misses 1-2 games due to the groin this year, but his career isn't likely in jeopardy. This ADP is fair.
Risk: Slightly Above Average
2024 Outlook: Fairly priced to meet ADP
Kyle Pitts
Kyle Pitts suffered an MCL and PCL injury in 2022 which was reported by Pitts himself inJanuary of this year. I was off of Pitts last season due to the fact that only 30% of complete MCL tears are isolated. Still, this gives us good confirmation bias. There are still questions to be answered mainly will Pitts continue to feel persistent swelling/tightness moving forward? There’s no way to know that until we see it. Every year there are a handful of “one last ride” players. This is it for Pitts. I’m more than happy to take him as TE6 and let the chips fall where they may.
Risk: Average- Significantly Above Average
2024 Outlook: One more ride…Vamos!
Sam LaPorta
LaPorta has been working through a hamstring injury since the beginning of August. The Lions are taking it slowly with him so as of now there’s no indication this will lead to missed time. However given his current ADP and expectations, LaPorta is already slightly overvalued. This recent hamstring injury could be residual/additive due to the PCL sprain from last season, too. It makes more sense than ever to go with one of the other big 5 TEs at cost (McBride, Pitts, Andrews, Kelce, Kittle).
