After weeks of speculation, the Pittsburgh Steelers have a new quarterback. A few days after the Denver Broncos cut him, Russell Wilson is headed to the Steel City to attempt to revive what once was a potential Hall-of-Fame career.
Wilson’s two seasons in Denver ended with just 11 wins, but the Broncos will continue to pay him until 2026… while he’s in Pittsburgh. In total, Denver is paying $85 million over the next two years for the right not to have Wilson quarterback the team. Nearly $50M of Wilson’s cap charge will hit the Broncos' books in 2025.
So, while Wilson’s tenure with the Broncos was undeniably a disaster, the Steelers at least get the short-term value of paying him the league minimum salary ($1.2M) for the 2024 season.
Meanwhile, Kenny Pickett’s chance in Pittsburgh ended after the team correctly decided that Mason Rudolph was a better option in the playoffs – even though Pickett was healthy coming back from an ankle injury. Pickett has a 13:13 TD-to-INT ratio and is averaging a pitiful 6.3 YPA across 24 starts.
Russell Wilson’s fit in Pittsburgh
Prior to being traded in 2022, Russell Wilson was likely Canton-bound. Seattle’s defense and strong run game obviously helped propel Wilson early in his career, but he was a near-perfect fit for 10 seasons with the Seahawks.
From 2012-21, Seattle enjoyed nine winning seasons of football as Wilson was one of the most prolific passers in the league – especially on deep throws. In this span, Wilson ranked top-6 among QBs in touchdown rate (6.2%), YPA (7.8), and passer rating (101.8). His higher sack rate led to slightly lower efficiency by EPA per dropback (0.16 – 12th-best). However, Wilson’s magic tricks and escapability in the pocket often negated some of the big sacks he’d absorb.
After years of a stagnant offense and an internal power struggle with HC Pete Carroll, Seattle traded their greatest QB in the history of the franchise in his mid-30s in what turned out to be one of the biggest heists in NFL history. Wilson got the trade and contract he wanted in the end, but he was never the same.
Over 30 starts with the Broncos, Wilson’s TD% (4.5%), YPA (7.1), passer rating (90.9), and EPA (0.05 per dropback) all sharply declined.
Wilson’s play picked up a bit last season thanks in part to the tutelage of HC Sean Payton and a resurgent WR Courtland Sutton, but he seemingly never adjusted to the new norms of the NFL. This is compounded by the fact that he no longer can hold the ball as long as possible and escape the pocket with ease. Wilson’s play from the pocket was still subpar last year.
According to our Fantasy Points Data Suite, Wilson’s 6.9 YPA from clean pockets ranked 21st and only marginally ahead of Kenny Pickett (6.8 clean pocket YPA). His play style has a lot to do with his mediocre efficiency.
While he still threw deep often (11.7% of throws traveled 20+ yards in air – 6th-highest), Russell Wilson checked the ball down like no other quarterback in the league last season. From a clean pocket, Wilson dumped the ball to his underneath read on an unbelievable 19.3% of his dropbacks. For context, that’s more than double the league average (8% checkdown rate from clean pocket).
Living off the deep ball and checkdowns is an impossible way to live on offense when your quarterback struggles to throw over the middle.
So, while Wilson is incredibly cheap and an upgrade over Pickett – that really isn’t saying much if the Steelers can’t compete in the AFC playoff hunt.
Every football fan knows what new OC Arthur Smith wants to do on offense. Over his three years in Atlanta, the Falcons ranked 32nd (2023), 31st (2022), and 13th (2021) in pass rate over expectation. The Falcons RBs averaged 418 carries per season as a result.
Pittsburgh will be extremely run-heavy this coming season, with Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren leading the backfield.
From a top-down perspective, Wilson will be comfortable in the Steelers run-heavy offense that will rely heavily on play-action and a zone run game. That style of attack should be natural for Wilson.
However, it remains to be seen if Wilson can improve his ability to throw over the middle – even incrementally.
Just 17.4% of Wilson’s throws were over the middle of the field last season (10th-lowest rate), and that doesn’t exactly mesh with OC Arthur Smith’s designs. This offense will predicate off the run and play-action, but Wilson will have to throw over the middle a bit more. Over the last two years, Atlanta’s passers threw into the middle of the field on 22% of their attempts, with poor results from Mariota and Ridder.
Despite all of the weird personnel mistakes that Smith made in Atlanta, he is at least willing to design his passing offense to attack the middle of the field despite his quarterbacks' obvious limitations.
With defenses using more two-high safety shell coverage, quarterbacks are adjusting by attacking in the middle of the field more often. The 49ers and Lions are at the forefront of this ongoing change in the NFL, as both Brock Purdy and Jared Goff threw over the middle on 25% of their attempts just last season.
Pickett’s struggles somewhat stemmed from his inability to throw over the middle with consistency. There was a stark contrast in the Steelers offense largely because Mason Rudolph (21.6% of throws in the middle of the field) was more willing to attack in between the numbers than Pickett (14.8%).
In short? Russ still has to evolve in the twilight of his career. At best, Wilson will be a usable QB2 in SuperFlex and have low-end streamer appeal in 1-QB formats.
Good Pickens?
At the very least, Wilson going under center is good news for George Pickens.
Pickens broke out for 63/1140/5 receiving despite questionable play-calling and poor quarterback play yet again. His 2.25 yards per route run ranked inside the top 20 WRs, according to FP Data, which is a strong signal for 2024.
However, Diontae Johnson was still the Steelers' lead target. According to our first-read target share data, Johnson (29.1%) led Pickens (23.8%) in their final 13 games together.
Pickens balled out when he saw the rock, though.
Despite seeing 12 fewer targets, Pickens (61.3) out-produced Johnson (55.2) in yards per game. Those splash plays from Wilson to Pickens will inevitably lead to spiked scoring weeks.
I’m already slightly ahead of the Underdog best ball markets with Pickens at 60 overall in my way too early rankings (ADP: 63). Another bump up is due after Wilson’s signing and the recent trade rumors around Johnson.
In theory, Wilson’s addition should lead to a few more red-zone trips and goal-line opportunities for the Steelers backfield. Last season, Pittsburgh scored on just 29.9% of their possessions (6th-lowest rate). Najee Harris stands to benefit most from the Steelers' slightly boosted touchdown equity, and Jaylen Warren will be active in the checkdown game should Wilson continue to feed his RBs underneath relentlessly.
Keep in mind, Warren (11.8 PPR points per game) narrowly edged out Harris (11.6) last season thanks to his role and ability in the passing game.
We’re targeting this backfield as a source of mid-round RB2/3 best ball points, but this Steelers duo will undoubtedly be frustrating once again for seasonal start/sit decisions.
