2024 DraftKings Fantasy Best Ball Draft Guide

This article is everything that you need to dominate in DraftKings NFL best ball tournaments.

Between this piece you’re about to read and the Underdog Draft Guide this summer – in which I laid the ground rules for conditional drafting – I have written a novel’s worth of best ball research, information, and forecasts.

Best ball is not like your managed start/sit leagues, far from it. To win the DK Best Ball Millionaire tournament, you’ll need to beat out over 880,000 other entries.

In seasonal leagues, the pool of players that actually matter on a weekly basis is more narrow. That’s because we make up for our mistakes in drafts with timely waiver pickups, trades, and churning through backup running backs on your bench.

Having the 35th-best WR in a start/sit league is a replacement-level player if you only have to start 2 WR in your league.

Having the 35th-best WR on any given week in best ball could be the difference between advancing in the playoff rounds to Week 15 and Week 16. The scoring margins are so thin in best ball tournaments that a player's floor in relation to the rest of your roster matters greatly. In season-long leagues, we really only care about a player's upside.

We don’t have to draft exactly perfect in best ball tournaments, but pretty damn close will work. Speaking of which, this article won’t be perfect, but my goal is to inform you and give the most optimal research and strategies available.

Let’s get to it.

Draft Structure and Lineup Requirements

Each DraftKings best ball draft is 20 rounds long. Fast drafts are on a 30-second timer, while “slows” are on eight-hour clocks. In slow drafts, you get an extra two hours of time overnight (10 PM to 4 AM ET).

You will start 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, and 1 FLEX every week based on each position's top score. There are 12 bench spots and DraftKings caps the number of QB and TE that you can select at 5 apiece. There aren’t any waivers, trades, or I.R. slots.

I highly encourage you to download my rankings, use DK’s pre-draft tool, and upload them before you enter contests. These ranks are updated daily and based on our projections, keeping ADP squarely in mind so you can draft the best players possible in each round.

NFL Best Ball Millionaire

Round Advancement

Payout Structure

Round 1 (Weeks 1-14) – Top-2 scoring teams earn tickets to Round 2

Round 2 (Week 15) – 1st place earns ticket to Round 3 | 2nd and 3rd $40 | 4th-12 $30

Round 3 (Week 16) – 1st place earns ticket to Round 4 | 2nd and 3rd $150 | 4th-12 $100

Round 4 (Week 17) – As follows below. Over $5M in prizes are paid out in Week 17 amongst the 1,021 finalists.

PLACE	PRIZE
1st	$1,500,000
2nd	$1,000,000
3rd	$715,600
4th	$500,000
5th	$400,000
6th	$300,000
7th	$250,000
8th	$200,000
9th - 10th	$150,000
11th - 15th	$100,000
16th - 20th	$75,000
21st - 25th	$50,000
26th - 35th	$30,000
36th - 50th	$20,000
51st - 70th	$15,000
71st - 100th	$10,000
101st - 150th	$7,500
151st - 200th	$5,000
201st - 250th	$4,000
251st - 350th	$3,000
351st - 450th	$2,000
451st - 650th	$1,500
651st - 1,021st	$1,000

Note that 36% of the total prize pool is paid out in Week 17, with obviously all of the top prizes. There aren’t any regular-season payouts. Getting to the finals is the hard part, but in terms of actually making money, Week 17 is all that matters. We talked about the importance of giving yourself upside in the finals through game-stacking here.

DraftKings Scoring

DraftKings Scoring	DK Fantasy Pts
Passing TD	4 Pts
25 Passing Yards	1 Pt (+0.04 Pts/ Yards)
300+ Yard Passing Game	3 Pts
Interception	-1 Pt
Rushing TD	6 Pts
10 Rushing Yards	1 Pt (+0.1 Pts/Yard)
100+ Yard Rushing Game	3 Pts
Receiving TD	6 Pts
10 Receiving Yards	1 Pt (+0.1 Pts/Yard)
100+ Receiving Yard Game	3 Pts
Reception	1 Pt
Punt/Kickoff/FG Return for TD	6 Pts
Fumble Lost	-1 Pt
2 Pt Conversion (Pass, Run, or Catch)	2 Pts
Offensive Fumble Recovery TD	6 Pts

DraftKings’ best ball scoring is just like their DFS contests. It’s full-PPR scoring and awards bonuses for yardage gained.

• Three bonus DK fantasy points for 100+ rushing yards

• Three bonus points for 100+ receiving yards

• Three bonus points for 300+ passing yards

Over the last two seasons, there have been 169 instances in which a running back reached the 100-yard rushing bonus during the fantasy season in Weeks 1-17. On average, 4.9 runners go over 100 yards on the ground every week.

By comparison, there have been 320 instances of a wide receiver hitting the 100-yard receiving bonus – which is exactly 10 per week. This means that receivers get their 3-point bonus at almost exactly double the rate at which running backs hit their respective 100-yard rushing mark.

Tight ends just rarely go over 100 yards. It’s happened only 31 times over the last two seasons, which means that only one TE hits the DK bonus every week on average.

This additional bit of upside that receivers regularly provide is important – especially when it comes to filling the FLEX spot. Best ball naturally operates on thin scoring margins, so having the opportunity for three extra points on a weekly basis is significant, especially when running backs hit the DK bonus less often in totality. Among all players to go over 100 yards rushing and/or receiving, a whopping 61.5% of these 3-point DK bonuses were achieved by wide receivers over the last two seasons.

Fun fact: Only four different tight ends have gone over 100 yards at least three times during 2022-23. Travis Kelce (8 performances of 100+ yards receiving), George Kittle (4), Mark Andrews (3), and T.J. Hockenson (3) make up 58% (18-of-31) of the total occurrences of a TE hitting the DK bonus.

Quarterbacks: Does the 3-point DK Bonus matter?

In short: No, not really. It does help the pocket passers like Tua Tagovailoa a bit, but not significantly enough to the point where it should alter your decision-making on the clock. Tua averaged more fantasy points per game on DraftKings (17.2 DK FPG | QB16), which was enough of a “boost” to bring him up from 16.7 FPG (QB17) in non-bonus formats.

The reason the 300-yard passing bonus doesn’t matter too much is simple: quarterbacks get all of their ceiling potential in fantasy football from scoring touchdowns in the first place. Recall that 93% of the variance in fantasy points for quarterbacks is explained by their total touchdowns (passing and rushing).

We can look at this at the weekly level, too. Out of the top 200 individual weekly DraftKings scores by a quarterback over the last two seasons, 194 of them scored at least two touchdowns in the game – either on the ground or through the air. That’s 97%. Basically, you have to get at least two TDs from your quarterback to really have a chance at a big fantasy score to begin with.

Winning the FLEX in PPR

A “typical” FLEX score is between 11-12 PPR points for a fantasy RB3 or WR4 in scoring on a weekly basis. On average, this figure is 11.8 PPR fantasy points.

To cast as wide of a net as possible, here’s the scoring frequency at which running backs, wide receivers, and tight ends score at least 11.5 DraftKings points on a weekly basis:

On DraftKings, wide receivers are 1.5 times more likely than running backs to give you a “median” FLEX score of 11.5 fantasy points. Over the last two seasons, nearly 52% of all instances of 11.5 or more FP were done so by wide receivers. Obviously, this data is going to naturally skew toward the receivers. We have to start more of them every week (3 WR vs. 2 RB), so you will have more rostered to begin with.

This data is just a look at the “floor” perspective – the score you need to just get a decent performance in the FLEX. Receivers absolutely dominate the upper bounds of ceiling production on DraftKings. In fact, wideouts made up 60% of all DraftKings fantasy performances that were in the 90th percentile of FLEX (RB/WR/TE) scoring on a weekly basis over the last two seasons. For reference, a 90th percentile score in a given week is usually 27.5 DK points. Wow.

Crucially, this data makes it clear that we should be leaning even harder on receivers in the premium early rounds on DraftKings for these four main reasons:

• We have to start more WRs (3) than RBs (2) to begin with.

• Full-PPR scoring and the frequency at which WRs go over 100 yards receiving gives them a boost over RB in the FLEX.

• 60% of all “ceiling games” are by WRs – a 90th percentile DK score in a given week (~27.5 DK Pts). This figure is even higher for players taken in Rounds 1-3 (more below).

• Stacking QBs with high-ceiling receivers provides additional scoring upside.

Let’s take this a step further and see where the majority of these week-winning scores are found in best ball drafts. To do this, I took all of the occurrences of when a RB, WR, or TE scored at least 27.5 DK Points during Weeks 1-17 of the 2022 and 2023 seasons and compared it to their average draft position (by round).

Here are where week-winning scores (27.5 or more DK Pts) typically come from in best ball drafts in ADP by round:

NOTE: Round 21 = players that were largely undrafted

Over the last two seasons, over half (51.2%) of the top 90th percentile DraftKings scores at RB, WR, and TE were done so by players selected in Rounds 1-3. Nearly 30% of all top scores are by players taken in Round 1. Again, we’re ignoring QB here. This is already intuitive, but premium picks are primarily where the biggest spiked scoring weeks come from.

Receivers have absolutely dominated the top scores among players selected inside of the top 36 picks. Among all RB/WR/TE selected in Rounds 1-3, wide receivers have accounted for exactly two-thirds (66%) of these top DK scores of 27.5 or more fantasy points.

For comparison, there were a total of 33 WRs, 28 RBs, 6 QBs, and 5 TEs taken in Rounds 1-3 of drafts in 2022-23. Running backs have only accounted for 30% of the top-90th percentile scoring weeks among these players taken in Rounds 1-3 over the last two seasons.

The market has responded. The number of receivers taken in Rounds 1-3 has risen from 15 in 2021, to 18 WRs in 2022, and now 22 wide receivers going in the top 36 on DraftKings this season.

Stefon Diggs and Michael Pittman are right on the cusp of making it 24 receivers in the top 36. Running backs are not all to blame here. Other market forces are at play at the single positions—quarterback and tight end. The decrease in elite TE pricing year over year and slight dip in top-end QBs have also played a role in making receivers more appealing early.

Injuries are bound to happen and just a nature of the sport, and running backs are more likely to miss time in a given season. All of this is baked into ADP now. It wasn’t three years ago.

Over the last two seasons, 43% of the running backs taken in the first three rounds (top-36 overall) have missed at least two games in a single season. By comparison, 36% of wide receivers taken in Rounds 1-3 miss multiple games. Running backs taken in the first three rounds missed 2.4 games per season on average, while wide receivers missed 1.9 games. That’s a difference of 22.6%.

Finally, check the chart above again. Note that there is gradual slippage in Rounds 4-8 in the top scoring distribution and not a crazy drop-off like there is after the top 36 overall. The RBs, WRs, and TEs selected in Rounds 4-5 have comprised 13% of the top DraftKings scores over the last two seasons, and that’s not too far ahead of the players taken in Rounds 6-7 (accounted for 10.6% of top scores).

The likelihood that you will find spiked weeks falls precipitously after Round 11. Finding spiked weeks at receiver in the late rounds is far more difficult than it may originally seem.

Roster Construction

Drafting the right players within the confines of ADP is the entire point of the game. Your job is to make structurally sound decisions within 20-round confines.

Unfortunately, DraftKings does not yet provide detailed datasets for every draft like Underdog, so there is no way of testing optimal roster construction as we did previously this summer. However, the sections on conditional drafting apply broadly to all best ball drafts on any platform. I highlighted those sections in more detail below.

Thanks to excellent research put together by FantasyPros’ best ball analyst Tom Strachan, we do know exactly how teams that made the finals of last year’s DraftKings Best Ball Millionaire allocated their positions.

Strachan notes that teams that selected exactly 3 QB / 6 RB / 8 WR / 3 TE on DraftKings accounted for 18% of finals teams in 2022, and this exploded even higher to 23.4% last season. This was the most common team build in the finals over the last two seasons, by far.

According to this study, 95% of finals teams in last year’s DK Millionaire selected between 5 and 7 running backs. In relation, Strachan finds that 91% of these teams drafted between 7 and 9 wide receivers.

From an overall roster construction standpoint, the majority of your teams on DraftKings should look like these examples:

• 3 QB / 6 RB / 8 WR / 3 TE

• 2 QB / 6 RB / 9 WR / 3 TE

• 3 QB / 5 RB / 9 WR / 3 TE

• 3 QB / 7 RB / 7 WR / 3 TE

• 2 QB / 7 RB / 8 WR / 3 TE

• 3 QB / 6 RB / 9 WR / 2 TE

• 2 QB / 7 RB / 9 WR / 2 TE

With the extra two rounds of draft capital to spend, you should be selecting both 3 QBs and 3 TEs on the same team quite often on DraftKings. Of course, there are exceptions to this rule.

At quarterback, you can stop at two QBs rostered if you draft 2 of the top-16 QBs by ADP, so long as they have separate bye weeks. This especially applies if you draft passers from the top 16 offenses in points per game.

Taking a single elite QB like Jalen Hurts in Round 4 and then stopping at 2 QBs rostered with a late-round QB2 like Geno Smith or a rookie (Bo Nix in Round 18) is always a possibility. The trade-off might be an extra RB/WR or third TE that you need. However, the downside is that your chances of advancing to Week 15 are significantly lowered if one of those two QBs gets hurt for a stretch during the regular season.

If one of your quarterbacks has legitimate in-season risk of being benched – like Daniel Jones or Russell Wilson – you will want to have three rostered.

Generally, you will usually want to select three tight ends. We’ll discuss this further in the section below.

The Five Rules of Best Ball

Rule #1 – Drafting 4 WR in Rounds 1-7 is the goal

The most optimal path is to take at least four wide receivers in the first 7 rounds. Drafting at least 3 WR in Rounds 1-7 is the absolute bare minimum rule.

Rule #2 – Choose wisely: RB vs. WR in Rounds 1-3

Drafting at least two WRs with your first 3 picks is most optimal.

Teams that took at least two WRs in Rounds 1-3 have posted a +1.1% advance rate to the Week 15 playoffs in Underdog’s similarly large-field BBM tournament. Meanwhile, the best ball teams that drafted at least two RBs in Rounds 1-3 have returned a significantly lower -1.9% advance rate under expectation.

Rule #3 – Hero and Zero RB dominate

Building around just one Hero RB in Rounds 1-3 and then hammering other positions continues to be a premier strategy. In this scenario, you take just one RB in the early rounds and then do not take your RB2 until Round 7 at the earliest.

The Hero RB strategy has performed above expectation for three straight seasons with a very strong +2.5% advance rate to the Week 15 playoffs overall.

This is only outdone by the Zero RB strategy.

Teams that wait until Round 6 or later to select their RB1 and draft at least six running backs have posted a very strong +3.2% advance rate to the fantasy playoffs.

Rule #4 – Drafting three tight ends is optimal

Recall that the teams that selected three tight ends have performed above expectation compared to best ball drafters that stopped at 2 TEs – relative to making the Week 15 playoffs – in three straight years on Underdog.

We also know that the overwhelming majority of tight ends who provide the most regular-season leverage are found in the late rounds. Over the last three years, 20 of the top 26 TEs by regular season advance rate were drafted at 135 overall or later. That’s 77%.

Again, we don’t have the historical draft data for DraftKings like we do for Underdog, so we can’t verify the results. However, plenty of information suggests that 3-TE teams are optimal over 2-TE on DK.

You should select three tight ends on the overwhelming majority of your DraftKings best ball teams due to the fragility of touchdowns at the position. Of course, you open yourself up to injury risk and are left with just one option as a trade-off if you stop at two tight ends. This is always the case – regardless if your draft is 18- or 20-rounds.

However, you can stop at two TEs drafted if they’re both top-16 weekly options. A team built with Evan Engram and a second TE like Cole Kmet or Pat Freiermuth would be the absolute borderline of this strategy. This is especially true if one of those tight ends was taken past ADP as a value. Even then, it’s probably optimal to just take a third TE.

A whopping 73% of finals teams drafted three tight ends after Kelce’s advantage wore off and Mark Andrews got hurt, Strachan notes.

Rule #5 – Don’t overreact to bye weeks

Seriously, just don’t.

Bye weeks should rarely enter your train of thought when you’re on the clock. It’s easier to manage on DraftKings, too. You just have more flexibility in 20 rounds. In fact, having 2-3 RB and 2-3 WR with the same bye week might actually be optimal since you’re just knocking out some of your core players’ byes at once. Sure, you sacrifice depth for one week of the season. In theory, you get those players all active together every other week as a trade-off. Obviously, you want to avoid having just 2 QBs and/or 2 TEs with the same bye without a third on the roster at all costs. Taking an automatic zero during your QBs or TEs bye week is not an option.

ADP Trends

Quarterbacks

After the top-5 quarterbacks by average draft position are gone, the DraftKings market starts to separate from Underdog. The quarterback market really starts to detach right around 100 overall.

The back-end QB1’s and the entire QB2 group are selected nearly a full round earlier on DraftKings. On average, the QB10 to QB28 in positional ADP is selected 11.9 overall spots earlier on DraftKings compared to Underdog. For all intents and purposes, just expect to pay up by a full round for this group of passers.

Most importantly, the increased rate of 3-QB teams is higher in this 20-round format … . Big runs at the position – when multiple QBs priced within the same tier are taken within just a few picks – are more common on DraftKings compared to Underdog. This largely has due to scarcity and stacking.

The extra two rounds on DraftKings play a big part in driving these differences in the markets. Since you have two extra roster spots to fill on DraftKings in the 20-round drafts, you’re going to be selecting 3 QBs more often in general. Stacking drives quarterback ADP in best ball and we see drafters are more aggressive on DraftKings to complete those stacks.

The added flexibility in roster construction means that drafting quarterbacks a little bit earlier is justifiable on DraftKings. Opportunity cost is the main factor. Since we have more chances to take RB and WR depth in the late rounds on DraftKings, it should naturally make you a bit more aggressive when stacking. From a decision-making standpoint, it’s much easier to click on a QB2 to complete a key stack than it is to decipher between the contingent value of two backup RBs at 145 overall.

Remember that sacrificing a little bit of ADP value for a lot of upside is always the right payoff. Our Chris Wecht found that it’s optimal to be aggressive when completing QB-WR stacks – especially in the late rounds.

However, there might be an unquantifiable force at play here.

DK is mainly known for its sportsbook marketplace and DFS contests. Underdog is a best ball company and platform first. There might be fewer experienced players on DraftKings that get interested in best ball through the Sportsbook and/or DFS side of their business. Inexperienced drafters typically take quarterbacks earlier in fantasy drafts – whether it’s best ball or a managed redraft league.

Regardless, quarterback ADP is heavily influenced by stacking and it’s important to always view the best ball market through this lens. Make sure you have the latest set of rankings uploaded to DraftKings so you’re never “crowded out” at quarterback.

Running Backs

It’s clear that the back-end RB1 to low-end RB2 pocket goes a bit earlier on DraftKings compared to Underdog. That trend stops at 100 overall. From that point on, running backs are priced equivalently on both sites throughout the double-digit rounds.

There is an especially large difference in the price market at wide receiver that corresponds with the bump we see running backs get in Rounds 3-7 on DraftKings. Check out this chart below:

Wide Receivers

There isn’t a gap in positional ADP between WR1 to WR14 in the opening two rounds. After that, we start to see the markets diverge a bit between in the WR2 range (WR15-WR30 in ADP). That bucket of receivers comes off of the board -3.7 overall spots later on DraftKings compared to Underdog. That’s not a huge discrepancy. However, we really begin to see running backs catch up to receivers in the mid-rounds.

Pricing at receiver really starts to get even wider in Rounds 5-9 because running backs are going significantly earlier on DraftKings. This is the grouping of receivers that you see from WR31-WR52 by ADP in the chart above. This range of receivers is selected -7.1 overall slots later on DK vs. UD.

This directly corresponds with the trends that we see in the running back pricing chart and in the quarterback market, just to a lesser extent. The RB8-RB20 by positional ADP is priced up by 8.4 overall spots on DraftKings compared to Underdog.

Should this be the case? Well, any set of median projections would show you that running backs should absolutely be pushed up the board higher than they currently are in both markets – especially on Underdog. However, this misses a crucial point. Fantasy football is a weekly game, and a player's range of scoring outcomes really matters in best ball scoring. Receivers dominate the upper bounds of ceiling production on DraftKings.

The recipe to winning the FLEX on DraftKings largely revolves around finding spiked weeks at receiver. Remember, wideouts make up 60% of all DK fantasy performances that were in the 90th percentile of FLEX (RB/WR/TE) scoring on a weekly basis over the last two seasons.

Even though running backs go earlier in Rounds 3-7, drafters aren’t making you pay with scarcity as a tradeoff if you skip out on running backs in this range. After the RB24-RB25 is off of the board on DraftKings, the rest of the position is selected relatively within the same positional ADP range on Underdog from Round 8 on.

Crucially, Hero and Zero RB drafters aren’t being punished at all for just selecting receivers – and/or elite QB/TE options – in this pricing pocket. This means that if you draft Breece Hall at 8 overall and then don’t touch the position until Round 8 on DraftKings, you’re going to be picking from relatively the same pool of players for your RB2 and RB3 spots that you would on Underdog despite the massive difference in pricing at receiver.

The more relaxed WR market allows for some supercharged roster builds centered around one Hero RB on DraftKings. As always, this will be my preferred way of building best ball rosters.

Getting a steady balance of youth and veterans is key, especially at wide receiver. This data is terrific research from RotoViz analyst Michael Dubner about how rookies are the only cohort of receivers to gain fantasy value as the season progresses when specifically looking at age.

I’m not sure why this is the case, but rookie wideouts are going 11.3 overall spots later on DraftKings compared to Underdog.

Rookie WR	Team	DK ADP	UD ADP	Diff
Marvin Harrison Jr.	ARI	13.8	13.6	0.2
Malik Nabers	NYG	30.0	26.5	3.5
Rome Odunze	CHI	82.3	67.1	15.2
Xavier Worthy	KC	72.9	64.2	8.7
Brian Thomas Jr.	JAX	94.1	75.3	18.8
Keon Coleman	BUF	71.7	76.6	-4.9
Ladd McConkey	LAC	80.5	71.9	8.6
Adonai Mitchell	IND	146.3	126.5	19.8
Ja'Lynn Polk	NE	144.8	129.4	15.4
Xavier Legette	CAR	156.9	141.9	15.0
Jermaine Burton	CIN	178.5	161.7	16.8
Luke McCaffrey	WAS	190.3	194.5	-4.2
Malachi Corley	NYJ	195.3	186.8	8.5
Ricky Pearsall	SF	172.6	152.8	19.8
Jalen McMillan	TB	192.7	176	16.7
Roman Wilson	PIT	203.9	188.6	15.3
Troy Franklin	DEN	200.2	187	13.2
Devontez Walker	BAL	225.0	210.1	14.9
Johnny Wilson	PHI	229.8	215.7	14.1
Javon Baker	NE	210	199.1	10.9

The only late-round rookie receivers who are not being drafted at a “discount” on DraftKings are Keon Coleman and Luke McCaffrey. Every other rookie wideout not named Harrison or Nabers is going 8.5 overall spots later on DK compared to Underdog.

Tight Ends

Travis Kelce (28 overall ADP) and Sam LaPorta (31) are being selected 7-8 spots earlier on DraftKings compared to Underdog. After that, the tight end market is nearly identical across the board.

This is the first time that a tight end is not going inside of the top 25 picks by ADP in at least 10 years after Kelce and Rob Gronkowski have dominated in the first two rounds of fantasy drafts for over a decade. Kelce is still the king until he’s unthroned, but there’s no denying that the massive positional advantage he once provided has eroded. Last season, TJ Hockenson led all TEs in DK fantasy points per game (15.1), followed by Kelce (14.9), Mark Andrews (14.9), and Sam LaPorta (14.3).

Applying Strategy to 2024

In all of your DraftKings contests, strive to take four wide receivers in the first 7 rounds. You want to be consistently filling the FLEX with wideouts since they offer a higher scoring ceiling than running backs thanks to full-PPR scoring and the DK 100-yard receiving bonus.

We’ll see Hero RB roster builds absolutely crush again for the fourth straight year in best ball, especially within this ADP setup. Recall that wide receivers drafted in the WR31-WR52 bucket in Rounds 5-9 are going -7.1 overall slots later on DK vs. UD. This means that the opportunity cost of taking an early-round RB is diminished a bit since you’re less likely to “get behind” at wide receiver on DraftKings. This is not the case in Underdog’s more aggressive WR market.

Every single rookie wide receiver is going at least 8.5 overall slots later on DK vs. UD except for four – Malik Nabers, Marvin Harrison Jr, Keon Coleman, and Luke McCaffrey.

Every draft is like a snowflake with thousands of possible iterations. Drafting the right players in the right rounds is the backbone of high-scoring teams. Do not arbitrarily force strategy before picks are made – be flexible. ADP value should always be top of mind, especially in the early-rounds of drafts. Getting a player 15 spots past ADP at pick 60 is far more valuable than getting the same 15-spot value at pick 160 (for a player with an ADP 145).

Finally, make sure you’re not overexposed to just one player in Round 1 if you’re drafting multiple best-ball teams. For example, taking Breece Hall and Bijan Robinson in the middle of Round 1 is a great way to start your draft, but you definitely will want to mix in some Justin Jefferson, Amon-Ra St. Brown, and A.J. Brown in that similar ADP range. Rankings matter way more in Round 2 and beyond.

Players to Target

These are players on whom you will want to be overweight (12% to 15% or more).

Quarterbacks

Jalen Hurts (Rank 36 | ADP 40)

Drafting Jalen Hurts in Round 4 feels like an “easy” button win. Now that he’s fully healthy after a knee injury bothered him for most of last season, the discount on Hurts is great.

Over the last two seasons, Hurts has finished as a top-5 scoring fantasy QB on DraftKings in an untouchable 62.5% of his starts. That easily leads all quarterbacks, and only Josh Allen (54.5% top-5) is in his stratosphere.

Hurts has one of the highest weekly ceilings in all of fantasy football, and he’s routinely drafted in the fourth round. He’s an absolute must-pick if you take A.J. Brown and/or DeVonta Smith, and I’m perfectly fine drafting Hurts ahead of ADP in Round 3 if you select an Eagles WR early.

As Scott Barrett outlined earlier this summer in his New Playcallers piece, OC Kellen Moore is an obvious upgrade over the run/pass option-crazed disaster led by Brian Johnson. The Eagles were just a stale offense last season, ranking near the bottom of the league in motion rate (25.8% | 30th). Meanwhile, the Chargers were at the top in motion rate (57.5% | 3rd-most). Getting the Eagles' talented receiving corps moving before and during the snap to get leverage and separation on cornerbacks quickly will greatly help Hurts and their passing offense rebound.

Stacks with Hurts + Dallas Goedert (111 ADP) have never been cheaper. Goedert was drafted three rounds earlier last year and two rounds earlier in 2022.

Joe Burrow (Rank 76 | ADP 82)

Outside of Ja’Marr Chase, the Bengals offense is underpriced in drafts relative to their upside. This all revolves around a now-healthy Joe Burrow.

Over the last three combined seasons, Burrow is the QB5 in DraftKings fantasy points per game (21.2), trailing only QB1 Josh Allen (26.1), QB2 Jalen Hurts (23.8), QB3 Patrick Mahomes (23.3), and QB4 Lamar Jackson (22.0).

In this span, Burrow is third in passing yards per game with 271.3. That trails only Patrick Mahomes (285.4 YPG) and Justin Herbert (274.2).

Burrow has thrown for 300 or more yards – earning the 3-point DK bonus – in exactly one-third of his games (33.3%). This is the fourth-highest rate of 300+ yard passing performances, trailing only Mahomes (38%), Herbert (36%), and Allen (34%).

Burrow has been a stud from an efficiency standpoint, too. He ranks fourth-best in touchdown rate (5.6%) – behind only Aaron Rodgers (5.9%), Dak Prescott (6.1%), and Brock Purdy (7.2%) since 2021. He ranks fifth-best in YPA (7.6).

You get the point. Burrow is top-5, at worst, in any measure that we care about over the last three combined seasons. His ADP? It’s QB9 on DraftKings.

Burrow has the potential to lead the league in passing if the Bengals continue to sling it as often as they did last year. Only the Chiefs were more pass-heavy (+11.7% pass rate over expected) than the Bengals (+11.2%) in Weeks 1-10. Keep in mind, Burrow was not 100% healthy to start the season (wrist).

Jam in Burrow ahead of ADP when you select Ja’Marr Chase and/or Tee Higgins. Both of the Bengals RBs should be priority RB2/3/ targets on Burrow teams – Zack Moss and/or Chase Brown.

If Burrow slides past ADP and you don’t have Higgins or Chase, he can be stacked with one of the RBs and some of his late-round WRs. Feel free to target both Jermaine Burton and Andrei Iosivas on all Bengals stacks. Add some Broncos to your Bengals for Week 17 correlation.

Matthew Stafford (Rank 124 | ADP 133)

Stafford wasn’t playing poorly to start last season, but he had just nine TDs through his first 9 games. His passing TD rate was 2.9% to this point, which would tie the lowest rate of his career. He was a low-floor QB2 at best.

What happened next fueled the Rams' playoff run. Over his final seven games (including the Wild Card round), Stafford ripped defenses for 296 yards per game (8.4 YPA) and a 17 TD to 3 INT ratio. He was back to playing at the 2021 Super Bowl champion level.

Now, I’m not saying that we can expect Stafford to maintain that level of play that he showed in their final seven games. He averaged a stellar 22.4 DK FPG in this stretch and never dropped below 17.6 FP. That’d make him one of the best mid-range QB1 options in fantasy football if he maintained that level of production.

Los Angeles is implied to score 23.9 points per game (12th-most), which is only three-tenths of a point behind the Houston Texans projection (24.2 implied PPG | 11th-most). C.J. Stroud’s average draft position is 56 overall. Stafford is being selected in the 130s.

Both of Stafford’s receivers are going in the top 25 overall on DraftKings, but he’s routinely taken outside of the top 16 QBs. He has the offensive infrastructure to absolutely smash his best ball ADP in Round 12. Stafford is a must-pick when you select Nacua and/or Kupp.

Running Backs

Jonathan Taylor (Rank 12 | ADP 15)

The counterpunch to a receiver-heavy draft room is taking a running back in the second round, and Jonathan Taylor ticks a lot of the boxes that we want.

Taylor just turned 25 years old. He’s still in the prime of his career (entering Year 5). He’s two years removed from a high ankle injury that he suffered and then re-injured in 2022. All of the contract dispute issues are in the past. With only Trey Sermon, Evan Hull, and Tyler Goodson behind him on the depth chart, Taylor looks primed for a bellcow role. Taylor played on 70% of the Colts’ snaps in both 2021 and 2022.

Due to his ankle injury in 2022, Taylor performed under expectation. He was the RB7 in expected fantasy points per game (15.6), but finished RB15 in actual FPG (14.1).

With a new contract and the injury behind him, Taylor closed out his final eight games as a back-end RB1 in a somewhat shared backfield with Zack Moss. He was the RB9 on DraftKings (17.9) and was RB11 in snaps (66%) – tied with Isiah Pacheco and Breece Hall from Weeks 7-18. This was after he missed the opening four games of the year due to a contract dispute and then missed three more games with a thumb injury that required surgery.

Very few running backs have Taylor’s weekly ceiling. Only McCaffrey, Ekeler, and Henry have finished top-10 in DraftKings FP among running backs at a higher rate over the last three seasons:

Name	Games	Top-10 Wk%
Christian McCaffrey	40	65.0%
Austin Ekeler	47	55.3%
Derrick Henry	41	51.2%
Jonathan Taylor	38	44.7%
Nick Chubb	33	42.4%
Breece Hall	24	41.7%
Bijan Robinson	17	41.2%
Jahmyr Gibbs	15	40.0%
Kyren Williams	20	40.0%
Saquon Barkley	43	37.2%
Joe Mixon	47	36.2%
Alvin Kamara	41	34.1%

We haven’t yet seen the full potential of Anthony Richardson and Taylor in the same backfield, but it’s easy to picture the ceiling. The Colts offensive line is returning all five starters and graded out as former NFL scout Scott DiBenedetto’s sixth-ranked unit. Richardson is also fully healthy and will play in the preseason after offseason shoulder surgery. The ultimate bull case is that HC Shane Steichen somehow managed to have the 10th-best scoring offense (23.3 points per game), with Gardner Minshew mainly at the controls last season.

The only knock against him is that Richardson will be highly involved near the goal line, which could cap Taylor’s TD upside.

Travis Etienne (Rank 29 | ADP 32)

We’re betting on volume being strong again here. Last season, he finished as the RB7 in FPG. The key was Etienne evolving into a bell cow — he was the RB6 in snaps (74%). The big uptick in snaps really boosted Etienne’s floor, and he was 8th among all RBs in targets per game (4.3).

Etienne’s DraftKings ADP has settled at RB10, representing a nice value off of last year’s production. Tank Bigsby will play more, but even with that factored in, Etienne is still RB8 in our projections.

There might be a little bit of additional upside here if the Jaguars can improve after having mostly vanilla run concepts and below-average blocking last season. Jacksonville ranked dead last in yards before contact per carry (0.94), which can’t happen again if they’re to have an effective offense. Two seasons ago, the Jaguars were top-5 in yards before contact (2.06 per carry). This is why Etienne’s YPC dropped from 5.1 in 2022 to 3.8 last season.

Etienne fits nicely in Round 3 as a Hero RB1 target after a WR-WR start.

Isiah Pacheco (Rank 30 | ADP 32)

With Jerick McKinnon off of the roster and only Deneric Prince and Clyde Edwards-Helaire behind him on the depth chart, we could see Isiah Pacheco hit career highs in receiving usage this season. Pacheco is another third round runner with a strong profile and hero RB1 candidate.

We got a small glimpse of what Pacheco’s role this season could look like to close out the regular season and into the playoffs. Across eight starts with McKinnon out (or in a reduced role), Pacheco averaged 20.2 DraftKings fantasy points per game. This would have made him the RB3 in points per game behind only CMC and Kyren Williams last season.

Pacheco ran a route on 50.4% of the Chiefs pass plays without McKinnon last season, which was a huge jump up from 34.1% in Weeks 1-11 with McKinnon on the field. If he sustains that route share this season, he’s a back-end RB1 at worst attached to Patrick Mahomes. Kansas City is projected to return as a top-3 scoring offense (25.5 implied points per game), trailing only Detroit (25.7) and San Francisco (26.2).

Joe Mixon (Rank 51 | ADP 59)

The Texans replaced Devin Singletary with Mixon this offseason by flipping the Bengals a seventh-round pick. Then, Cincinnati turned around and extended the veteran running back to a two-year extension with $7M in new guarantees.

Mixon is nearing the edge of the age cliff, but Houston believes they’ve found their bell-cow. OC Bobby Slowik called Mixon “a workhorse in every regard” in July. I believe that Houston wants Mixon in an every-down role. After he replaced Dameon Pierce last season, Singletary’s role was underrated. Over his 11 starts, Singletary was the RB9 in snaps (69%). That is right in line with Mixon’s career norms.

His snap rate by year:

• 2023 – RB8 (69.7%)

• 2022 – RB12 (65.4%)

• 2021 – RB7 (67.8%)

Most importantly, there should be ample touchdown opportunities attached to C.J. Stroud. Last season, Houston finished 10th in carries inside-the-5 with 27. That was just marginally behind the Los Angeles Rams and the Dallas Cowboys (28).

Mixon just projects like a solid high-end RB2 with age risk firmly baked into his ADP.

Jaylen Warren (Rank 82 | ADP 89)

Warren took an even bigger slice of the pie from teammate Najee Harris last season, going from 32% of the snaps as a rookie up to 48%. This was a true committee. Warren marginally out-scored Harris in DraftKings FPG by one-tenth of a point, and he out-scored Harris in only one fewer contest on a per-game basis (9-8).

Unfortunately for fantasy gamers, the Steelers split was compartmentalized. Harris played on 72% of the snaps inside-the-10 while Warren barely got carries near the goal-line. However, Warren’s role in the passing game was much stronger, and he doubled up Harris in targets (71 to 36).

New OC Arthur Smith loves to rotate his running backs – almost to a fault. There is a good chance that Warren will be a little more involved in the red zone this season.

The Steelers' old staff gave Harris 45 carries inside-the-10 (78% share) compared to just 12 for Warren (21% share) in the last two seasons. By comparison, Bijan Robinson handled just 44% of carries inside-the-10 while Tyler Allgeier handled 37% last year. Falcons RBs split similarly inside-the-10 two years ago as well in a three-way committee with Allgeier (45%), Cordarrelle Patterson (32%), and Caleb Hundley (21%).

Thanks to his passing-down role, Warren possessed a high floor last season. Targets are worth 2.55x more fantasy points than a carry for running backs in PPR leagues. Warren finished as a top-36 RB in weekly scoring in 88% of his games, which was the seventh-highest rate at the position. If he’s allowed more goal-line work, Warren will crack the top-25 RBs in FPG this season. He’s a high-floor pick at RB26 ADP.

Jonathon Brooks (Rank 83 | ADP 107)

Brooks posted top-3 marks in the class in both Yards Created per carry (4.79) and missed tackles forced per carry (0.39). He also posted the top mark in the class by pass protection execution rate (95%) over Blake Corum (75%), Audric Estime (75%), and Kimani Vidal (72%).

HC Dave Canales noted that Brooks will be a versatile player within their scheme, especially in the passing game. His early draft capital suggests a large role is on the horizon.

Brooks is the 15th second-round runner to go inside of the top 50 picks (from 33 to 50 overall) since 2013. Among the 14 previous second-round top-50 overall selections at RB in the draft, nine have gone on to finish as a top-20 scorer in fantasy points per game as a rookie. That’s 64.3%. On average, these running backs saw 15.5 opportunities per game (carries + targets). Only two former top-50 picks failed to finish as top-35 scoring running backs in their rookie season since 2013 – Derrick Henry and Ronald Jones.

The big question here in the long term isn’t Brooks’ health. Carolina has every incentive to roll him out slowly, so there are no setbacks coming back from his knee injury. Nor is it the Panthers' offensive line, which should be improved with the addition of G Robert Hunt. His main competition for touches is Chuba Hubbard, whom the Panthers tried to replace in back-to-back seasons.

After having so much success with reclamation projects Geno Smith and Baker Mayfield… Can Dave Canales save Bryce Young?

All of this is priced in. Brooks has sunk to RB31 in ADP. Draft him as your RB3/4 target and then watch him emerge as a strong RB2 in the back half of the season.

Wide Receivers

Deebo Samuel (Rank 15 | ADP 22)

Over the last three combined seasons, Deebo Samuel is the WR10 in DraftKings fantasy points per game (17.8) – tied with Amon-Ra St. Brown. Yet, he’s drafted at the end of the second round as the WR14 in positional ADP. Deebo is still somehow underrated in fantasy football despite finishing top-15 among wide receivers in yards per route run in four of the last 5 seasons with his down 2022 season being the lone exception.

Deebo is just an exceptionally high-floor pick in Round 2. He’s finished as a top-25 scoring WR on a weekly basis in 57% of his games since 2021, which is tied with Davante Adams and Amon-Ra St. Brown for the eighth-highest rate in this span.

Chris Olave (Rank 16 | ADP 22)

After Michael Thomas was done for the season with an injury in Week 10, Olave quietly closed out the final seven games of his season by averaging 16.6 DK PPG. This would have made him the WR12 over the full season if he sustained that pace – tied with Deebo Samuel and Ja’Marr Chase.

Despite a concussion and a nagging ankle sprain, Olave stepped up and still shredded defenses to the tune of 2.86 yards per route run (WR6) in this stretch without Thomas. For reference, Olave was just a solid WR3 in Weeks 1-9 with Thomas, as he averaged 1.76 YPRR (WR43), and he put up 13.5 DK PPG (WR34).

Olave stands to benefit the most from this newly modernized offense under OC Klint Kubiak, who was most recently the 49ers pass game coordinator. Only the Steelers (15.5%) used play-action less often than the Saints (15.7%) last season. When Kubiak was last an OC in 2021 for the Vikings, their offense used play-action on 23.8% of their pass plays (18th).

Time and time again, play-action proves to be a cheat code for passing efficiency. Last year, Olave averaged 3.54 YPRR when the Saints actually called a play-action pass, and 2.0 YPRR on regular dropbacks.

Throwing using play-action was one of Derek Carr’s strong suits last season. He averaged 9.43 adjusted net yards per attempt off of play-action dropbacks – which factors in yards, TDs, INTs, and sacks – and that was sandwiched in between C.J. Stroud (9.64 ANY/A) and Matthew Stafford (9.35) for the 8th-best figure. Carr’s ANY/A dipped to 6.02 on non-PA passes (12th-best).

Carr will need to read defenses better and not be so reliant on deep balls and checkdowns this season, but Olave has some underrated upside in the second round of drafts. The volume might be terrific. We’re projecting Olave to be 10th in targets among wideouts.

D.J. Moore (Rank 24 | ADP 34)

What does D.J. Moore need to do to earn your respect?

Over the last three combined seasons, Moore is the WR18 in yards per route run (2.12) and WR16 in first downs per route run (0.105) despite the fact that just 74.8% of his targets were catchable.

For reference, Moore’s catchable target rate is 56th-of-69 WRs, with at least 150 targets since 2021. Moore has literally been one of the top-20 most efficient receivers despite getting garbage QB play regularly.

The Bears have added significant target competition for Moore with the likes of Keenan Allen and Rome Odunze, but our projections are that Moore will lead the team in routes. Allen profiles to play in the slot on the majority of his snaps, while Odunze can slide in outside as the second WR opposite Moore in 2-TE sets starting Week 1.

No matter the quarterback or the scheme, Moore has always commanded the ball. He earned 38% of the first read targets in 2023, and that lofty figure will not repeat again. Chicago just didn’t get consistent receiver play from anyone else last season. However, this was not really new for Moore. He’s earned at least 30% of his team’s first-read targets in each of the last three seasons, finishing as the WR4 (2023) > WR19 (2022) > WR3 (2021) in FR target share.

He finally has the best quarterback of his life in Caleb Williams… and the markets have priced him at WR22?!

I’m bullish on Chicago’s offense. By implied points per game, the Bears are tied with the Jaguars (23.3) for 15th-most, and that’s only marginally behind the Falcons (23.6) and Jets (23.7).

Rashee Rice (Rank 47 | ADP 58)

Let me preface this entire blurb with one thing: I’m not a lawyer. I’m just stating what I understand to be the facts.

Rice’s legal issues have been well chronicled this offseason, but the bottom line here is that we’re now trending towards a possible suspension in 2025 stemming from his reckless driving and car crash charges in March. As of this writing, Rice does not have a criminal court date set. In fact, Chiefs reporter Seth Keysor does not think that Rice has even been charged criminally yet, other than booking. Why is this important? The NFL will not suspend him until his legal matter is finished. I have no idea what is taking the state of Texas so long.

Now with the legal section of this article over, let’s get back to fantasy football.

The Chiefs adding field-stretcher Marquise Brown will only help clear out the middle of the field and take attention away from Rice. Xavier Worthy will take some designed targets away, but there is a really good chance that Rice just remains Patrick Mahomes #1 target after he earned a look on 28% of his routes last season. For reference, Rice’s elite 0.28 TPRR tied Nico Collins and Justin Jefferson for the 11th-highest rate among receivers.

In his 11 games after the Chiefs' bye last season (including playoffs), Rice averaged 16.5 DraftKings fantasy points per game (WR12) with the lowest average depth of target (4.6 yards) among qualified receivers in this span. A whopping 24% of Rice’s targets were designed, which signals how much the Chiefs wanted to get him the ball in space. His designed target rate trailed only Jaxon Smith-Njigba (28%) and Jayden Reed (25%).

Across their final 11 games last season, Rice earned 92 targets to Kelce’s 86. There is an argument that he’s already the team’s first target by his lofty TPRR in his rookie season. What happens if he’s unleashed on more downfield targets this season? How high can his ceiling be?

Even if Rice’s target rate regresses a little, there is plenty of margin for error at his positional ADP of WR32.

Calvin Ridley (Rank 52 | ADP 63)

These are Ridley’s career PPR finishes by season:

• 2018 – WR27

• 2019 – WR19

• 2020 – WR4

• 2021 – WR27 (limited to five games due to injury)

• 2022 – Suspended

• 2023 – WR27

Despite all of the ups and downs of his career, Ridley has never finished outside of the top 30 receivers in fantasy points per game. His ADP? It’s WR35 on DraftKings. Ridley just got a huge new contract this offseason and turns 30 years old in December. DeAndre Hopkins was objectively a better receiver than Ridley last season, but he’s nursing a knee injury and just turned 32 years old.

Hopkins averaged 2.27 yards per route run (WR17) with slightly worse QB play than Ridley (1.71 YPRR | WR44) last season. Both players saw targets fly by without being able to catch them. Nuk was near the bottom of the league in catchable targets (69.2% | 74th-of-82) and Ridley wasn’t too far behind (71.6% of targets were catchable | 67th).

Don’t forget that Hopkins is entering Year 12, and receivers at this point of their career typically average 70.6% of their career average output (according to Ryan Heath’s Age Curves). This means we should expect that Hopkins will average around 11.5 FPG this season (WR42 in PPR FPG), making him a WR3 or WR4 weekly option.

Even after accounting for his year suspended, Ridley is entering Year 7, and he’s firmly in the prime of his career.

Chris Godwin (Rank 52 | ADP 63)

Godwin will be back in his natural position full-time as the primary slot receiver for Tampa this season according to both the Buccaneers WRs coach and HC Todd Bowles this offseason.

It’s a great development for his fantasy outlook. Mike Evans will patrol his usual spot at X-receiver and the rookie Jalen McMillan will slide in as the #3 receiver on the perimeter along with Trey Palmer to back everyone up.

Godwin was more efficient in the slot last season, averaging 2.05 yards per route run inside vs. 1.77 when he lined up as a perimeter receiver. The GOAT Tom Brady obviously carried this offense from 2020-22, but it’s also notable that all of Godwin’s best fantasy seasons have come when he’s a slot receiver full-time.

Godwin’s WR2 finish in 2019 was the Jameis Winston 30/30 speciality season.

Finally, Godwin is still just 28 years old, despite this being his eighth year in the NFL. He’s now two and half years removed from his December 2021 ACL tear and showed better separation skills last season compared to his first year back from the knee injury.

We saw him start to really trend up to close last season after he bottomed out for 0/0 receiving on three targets in Week 13. From that point on, Godwin led the team in targets over Evans (57 to 50), first reads (29% share to 25%), and yards per route run (2.29 to 1.88).

Mike Evans showed zero signs of drop-off last year, and he will be enshrined in Canton one day. However, we’d be foolish not to recognize the risk with Evans’ age entering Year 10. This is crucially the year that Ryan Heath identified when receivers really started to drop off their peak with 77.2% of their career “baseline” production. If he were to regress in a similar fashion, that would take Evans down from his usual WR1 levels to more of a mid-range WR2 this season.

There should not be a 30-pick gap overall between Evans’ and Godwin’s price.

Diontae Johnson (Rank 57 | ADP 69)

One of the most underrated separators in the game, Johnson is a player I find myself taking ahead of ADP often on DraftKings. He’s been an immense target-earner in his career, but held back in the touchdown department thanks to poor quarterback play, poor coaching, or a combination of both.

Here are the top 20 receivers in targets per game over the last three combined seasons:

Player	TGT/G
Davante Adams	10.5
Justin Jefferson	10.3
Keenan Allen	10.2
Cooper Kupp	10.1
Tyreek Hill	10.0
Stefon Diggs	9.6
Puka Nacua	9.4
Garrett Wilson	9.3
CeeDee Lamb	9.1
Ja'Marr Chase	9.0
Diontae Johnson	8.8
Amon-Ra St. Brown	8.8
Michael Pittman Jr.	8.7
A.J. Brown	8.7
Chris Godwin	8.7
Calvin Ridley	8.5
Marquise Brown	8.4
Chris Olave	8.3
DeAndre Hopkins	8.3

Hello. Yes, that’s Diontae tied for 11th in targets per game with Amon-Ra St. Brown over the last three seasons.

Johnson also earned more targets (88 to 76) than George Pickens in their 13 games played together last season. He had nearly the same efficiency on a per route basis (1.94 YPRR) as Pickens (2.09), too.

Bryce Young is an open-ended question, but I think football heads will all agree that new HC Dave Canales is the best play-caller that Johnson has ever had. He won’t have a problem earning targets with 34-year-old Adam Thielen and rookie Xavier Legette as his competition.

Over the last three combined seasons, Johnson is the WR31 in DraftKings fantasy points per game with worse coaching and more target competition. His WR40 positional ADP is just a screaming value.

Tight Ends

Mark Andrews (Rank 48 | ADP 54)

After flopping hard due to injury in the early 3rd round of drafts last season, Andrews’ price has fallen too far. At his depressed 5th-round ADP, he’s a priority target.

Before suffering a high ankle injury in Week 11 Andrews was, once again, leading all tight ends in route share (79%), he was first in targets per route run (0.29), and he led the position in fantasy points per route run (0.54). Andrews’ 14.9 DK fantasy points per game in Weeks 2-10 would have tied Kelce as the TE2 by FPG. He was very much still Lamar Jackson’s top target.

Two years ago, Andrews was first among TEs in route share (83%), he tied for third in targets per route run (0.26), and he finished fourth in FP/RR (0.47).

Andrews has finished as the TE2 (2023), TE3 (2022), and TE1 (2021) by DraftKings fantasy points per game over the last three seasons, and he can be drafted past 50 overall as the TE5 by ADP.

George Kittle (Rank 59 | ADP 66)

Saying “he’s better in best ball” is usually meaningless because most players are inconsistent scorers in fantasy football. However, George Kittle might be the exception. He really is better in best ball.

Kittle has finished as a top-5 scoring TE on a weekly basis in 42% of his games over the last two seasons. That’s incredible. However, he has also finished outside of the top-16 scorers completely in 39% of his games.

By comparison, Kelce has finished outside of the top 16 weekly scorers among TE just 12.5% of the time. Only Kelce (56%) and LaPorta (47%) have provided more top-5 scoring weeks than Kittle (42%).

This is exactly why having him in a managed start/sit or dynasty league has felt so maddening at times. We shouldn’t care too much about this lack of consistency in best ball because the trade-off is a tremendous one-week ceiling that can be drafted in Round 6.

Over the last three seasons, Kittle has finished as the TE6 (2023), TE2 (2022), and TE4 (2021) in DraftKings FPG. In fact, he hasn’t finished worse than TE6 in FPG since his rookie season (2017). He’s always been one of the most efficient players despite his every-down role, finishing second (2.44), fifth (1.97), and first (2.42) in yards per route run among tight ends over the last three years.

Relative to his weekly ceiling, Kittle is underpriced at TE7 by ADP.

Values

These are players whom you will want to draft consistently (8-15%).

Quarterbacks

Geno Smith (Rank 154 | ADP 162)

Geno is a strong technical value as a QB2 for a few reasons. Most importantly, his production is undervalued relative to his ADP.

Smith has made 36 starts for the Seahawks over the last three seasons, in which he’s averaged 17.7 DK FPG (QB13). Additionally, Smith ranks 13th in yards per game, 14th in touchdown rate, and 10th-best in YPA among the 39 QBs with 500 pass attempts since 2021.

Over the last two seasons as a full-time starter, Geno Smith has finished as a top-10 scoring fantasy QB on DraftKings in 37.5% of his starts. For reference, this is basically the same top-10 rate as Tua Tagovailoa (36.7%) and Jared Goff (38.2%). Yet, those two quarterbacks are being drafted 3-4 rounds earlier. That’s not to say that Tua and Goff are bad picks – they’re mainly going higher because their pass catchers go earlier than the Seahawks. This just highlights that Geno is underrated heading into the season.

His ADP is QB23.

The Seahawks figure to use more 11-personnel (1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR) with Jaxon Smith-Njigba primed for a larger role and after​​ TEs Colby Parkinson and Will Dissly departed in free agency. New OC Ryan Grubb will open up Seattle’s deep passing attack with the use of motion and imaginative formations for receivers D.K. Metcalf, Tyler Lockett, and JSN.

Geno has been terrific throwing deep – that’s all passes of 20+ yards in the air – over the last two seasons by FP Data’s completions over expected metric. He ranked fourth-best on deep throws two years ago (+12% CPOE) and seventh-best last season (+7.3% CPOE).

The Washington Huskies led all of college football in deep passing yards last season, per PFF.

Will Levis (Rank 157 | ADP 162)

Levis is a top QB2-QB3 target in best ball. Even if you’re not sold on him as a passer, the new-look Titans are about to undergo a massive schematic change. Levis averaged 31.1 pass attempts per game last season (24th), and that’s set to rise.

Titans players have been vocal about this. Levis said that in his initial meetings with new HC Brian Callahan, “[We’ll be] using the dropback game in situations where you might not have seen that last year. Being able to throw the ball a bit more – I have to earn that – but [coach said] we’re going to throw the ball on first downs and in all types of situations.” TE Chig Okonkwo said at OTAs that the plan, “looks we are going to be relying on the pass and that suits my game.”

Tennessee was a lowly 31st in pass rate (52.7%) in one-score games when Levis started last season. During Callahan’s time as OC of the Bengals, Cincinnati ranked inside of the top-10 in pass rate in one-score games in each of the last three seasons. In fact, they topped out at 66% (3rd-highest) last year without Joe Burrow for half of the campaign.

We’re at least looking at the Titans going from dead last in pass rate to near league average, at the bare minimum. There is a chance that the Titans could be top-10 in pass rate if Levis really balls out.

Hopefully, the Titans can improve their pass protection after ranking 9th-worst in pressure rate allowed over expectation last season. The 7th overall pick LT J.C. Latham joins 2023 first-rounder LG Peter Skoronksi along with veteran addition C Lloyd Cushenberry.

When he was given a clean pocket, Levis led all QBs in average depth of target (9.1 yards) and deep throw rate (17.7%).

Levis’ aggressive play style should lead to spiked scoring fantasy weeks with upside for 300+ passing yards if the Titans do jump into the top 10 in pass rate. No quarterback had a better Hero Throw Rate on passes of 10 or more yards downfield than Levis (21.2%). On the same token, Levis was second-from-last in Turnover Worthy Throws (10.6%).

The Titans have the second-easiest strength of schedule for QBs (worth +0.94 FPG) as the cherry on top. Wheels up.

Drake Maye (Rank 182 | ADP 201)

Maye has a ton of upside for our game and, simultaneously, the lowest floor of all the rookie quarterbacks. The Patriots' offensive line is a real concern here, but there is no doubt New England is at least trying to get better at receiver. The reason that Maye is so interesting for fantasy has everything to do with his rushing upside.

Maye didn’t get as many designed carries as this group of similarly mobile quarterbacks, but his scramble rate (11.1%) was on par with the likes of Justin Fields (11.4%) and Lamar Jackson (9.9%) in college. In fact, Maye averaged more rushing yards per game (40.3) than Justin Fields (33.3) and Josh Allen (28.3) did as starters in college. He also scored 16 rushing TDs across 26 starts in his final two seasons at UNC.

Bo Nix (Rank 184 | ADP 201)

The case for Bo Nix is the simplest. He’s the cheapest QB on the board that’s likely to start 14-15 games. The Broncos have an underrated offensive line, decent weapons, and a great coach. He’s easy to stack late with his receivers and/or running backs. This won’t be an offensive juggernaut, but the pieces are in place for them to slightly exceed expectations. Denver is implied to score 19.6 points per game on offense according to the DraftKings Sportsbook lookahead lines, which is tied for 31st with Carolina. However, Bryce Young (ADP 178) goes 2-3 rounds before Nix is selected.

Running Backs

Rhamondre Stevenson (Rank 68 | ADP 79)

Stevenson’s ADP has fallen by over three rounds year-over-year despite getting an upgrade at QB in addition to a new contract this offseason. He’s just a glaring value at RB22 in positional ADP in full-PPR leagues.

Over the last two combined seasons, Stevenson is the RB9 in snaps (65%) and RB6 in targets per game (4.8). Only Ekeler (201), McCaffrey (191), and Kamara (163) have earned more total targets than Stevenson (139) in this span.

This strong volume has propelled him to RB23 and RB12 finishes in DraftKings points per game. Last year’s RB23 finish was literally in one of the worst offensive environments possible, too. We shouldn’t hold that against him as a player.

New England’s 13.9 points per game was tied for the seventh-lowest scoring campaign for any offense since 2010. A grand total of 30 RBs averaged more carries inside-the-10 per game (1.0) than Stevenson did last season. There is only one way to go and that’s up. The Patriots are still last in implied points per game (18.9), but on the bright side, that’s the third-largest expected scoring gain (+5.0) behind only the Jets (+7.9) and Panthers (+5.7).

Predicting volume is the name of the game at running back. At his ADP, Stevenson is being drafted near his floor in the 7th round.

Tyjae Spears (Rank 92 | ADP 110)

The Titans backfield is headed towards an interchangeable split with Tony Pollard. This will likely be a messy two-way committee to deal with in managed start/sit leagues, but we don’t care about that in best ball. We’re just looking for low-end RB2 production at these prices.

Spears has underrated upside as he enters the second year of his career. This is when running backs typically have their highest scoring season according to the Age Curves.

Spears is a better player than Pollard straight up at this point of their careers. Last season, Spears bested Pollard in yards after contact (2.92 vs. 2.61) and missed tackles forced (0.21 vs. 0.15) on a per-carry basis while running behind a worse offensive line in Tennessee than Pollard had in Dallas. He was also far more effective in space, averaging 9.1 yards after the catch as a receiver (RB13), while Pollard was one of the worst receiving backs in the league with just 5.96 YAC/reception (45th-of-47 RB).

We’re projecting Spears slightly ahead of Pollard over the season.

Chase Brown (Rank 89 | ADP 100) and Zack Moss (Rank 90 | ADP 98)

It's just good process to target the Round 8-9 running backs attached to Joe Burrow and the Bengals lofty 24.8 implied points per game. Only the Dolphins (24.9), Bills (24.9), Chiefs (25.5), Lions (25.7), and 49ers (26.2) project better.

Zack Moss had a mini-breakout in the absence of Jonathan Taylor last season, and he parlayed his performance into a chance to become the Cincinnati Bengals starting RB. Cincinnati inked Moss to a 2-year, $8M deal ($3M guaranteed). It’s really a one-year contract. Per OTC, the Bengals can save nearly $2M in 2025 cap space by releasing Moss pre-June 1.

Chase Brown gave the Bengals some big plays late last season, and he’s inarguably earned a longer look as a part of a 1A / 1B committee. Over the final six games of last season, Brown rushed for 42/173/0 and added 11/149/1 receiving (on 12 targets). During this stretch, Mixon handled 64% of the snaps while Brown was still very part-time (22% snap rate).

Moss profiles as the early-down and goal-line back. Brown could carve out a large role in the passing game, but he’ll have to improve in pass protection.

As our Scott Barrett notes in his tweet below, Moss was excellent when running out of shotgun last season. That really matters for the Bengals, because Joe Burrow rarely goes under center.

To boot, Moss was better after contact (2.78 YAC per carry – 13th) and more shifty with 0.23 missed tackles forced per carry (14th) compared to Joe Mixon (2.43 YAC / 0.19 MTF). If he can continue his form, Moss is an improvement.

If both runners play well, this backfield could quickly become a compartmentalized split. That’s not a bad thing in best ball scoring, but it could be very frustrating in managed start/sit leagues. If one of them gets injured and misses time, they both have strong contingent upside.

Wide Receivers

Joshua Palmer (Rank 101 | ADP 107)

In his career, Palmer has averaged a rock-solid 4.7 receptions and 58.6 receiving yards (on 7.1 targets) per game with eight TDs in his 24 starts where he’s played at least 60% of the snaps.

In this sample of games, Palmer averages 13.0 DraftKings PPR points per game (WR38), and his 58.6 YPG would rank 32nd-most over the last three seasons. His ADP has been on the riser all summer, but we still believe there is plenty of value at WR52 off of the board. The Chargers won’t be a pass-heavy team, but Palmer has underrated separation skills, and his only target competition is D.J. Chark and the rookie Ladd McConkey – who is a sudden route runner but has been dealing with another injury. Palmer is a good to great WR5-6 value.

Rashid Shaheed (Rank 110 | ADP 123)

Shaheed has shown to have a decent scoring ceiling in his career, and he now has a runway for more playing time this season. Across 27 career games, Shaheed has finished as a top-25 scoring wide receiver in 26% of his games. For reference, that’s only marginally behind Drake London (27%) and Courtland Sutton (29%) over the last two seasons.

The small sample efficiency with Shaheed has been fire. He’s averaged 2.05 yards per route run over the last two combined seasons, which is 28th-best. If he can maintain a similar level of efficiency on more snaps, Shaheed can emerge as one of the better WR4 options weekly. He’s priced as a WR5, though.

Ja’Lynn Polk (Rank 128 | ADP 144)

Analytically speaking, Polk was not a strong prospect. It’s a red flag. He’s a decent athlete overall (57th percentile SPORQ) and tested really well in the broad and vertical jumps. His bulk final season production was fine, and he has early draft capital (37th overall pick in NFL Draft) all in his favor. Polk posted 69/1159/9 receiving as the secondary target behind Rome Odunze in Washington last season and showed some downfield skills in their deep passing scheme.

New England was a fantasy wasteland last season, so I understand the trepidation here. Polk is the last receiver on the board by ADP with a legitimate chance to lead his team in targets and he fits well with Drake Maye as a QB3 target in the late rounds.

Darnell Mooney (Rank 141 | ADP 153)

The Falcons don’t have much receiver depth behind Drake London and Kyle Pitts after Rondale Moore (leg) was lost for the season in training camp. Mooney has been held back by QB play for years and last season was more of the same. Just 68.4% of Mooney’s targets last season were catchable, which tied Gabe Davis and Marquise Brown for the fifth-lowest rate.

You’re getting a receiver that will be a full-time player attached to Kirk Cousins and the Falcons' strong 23.6 implied point-per-game total (13th-best) at WR67 in ADP. Mooney is our WR56 in projections.

Demarcus Robinson (Rank 156 | ADP 175)

No team uses 11-personnel (1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR) more than the Rams. At the very worst, Robinson is Matthew Stafford’s WR3 as a full-time player. He’s already locked down the job in training camp over Tutu Atwell. In his seven starts with the Rams from Week 13 into the playoffs last season, Robinson ran a route on 75% of the pass plays and turned his 40 targets into 24/363/4 receiving (1.87 YPRR) and 12.7 DK FPG. We’ll take that at WR6-7 prices, especially given how heavily we’re targeting Stafford.

Tight Ends

Dallas Goedert (Rank 110 | ADP 112)

Goedert doesn’t have a huge ceiling because he’s scored between 3 and 5 TDs in six straight seasons. However, he has shown a strong floor. Finding tight ends with a strong projectable floor is best ball gold in the double-digit rounds. He’s just a good technical value based on his recent production.

Over the last two seasons, Goedert has finished as a top-15 scoring TE on DraftKings in 61.5% of his games (seventh-highest rate), and he’s finished top-10 at a 46.2% clip (eighth-highest). Goedert is TE8 in DK FPG (10.9) in this span, but his ADP is TE12.

Taysom Hill (Rank 135 | ADP 140)

Saints TE/RB/WR/QB Swiss army knife Taysom Hill is very in play. In the 11 contests where he played at least 25 snaps last season, Hill averaged 12.3 PPR points per game. That would have made him TE8 in FPG over Cole Kmet.

Tyler Conklin (Rank 163 | ADP 175)

Conklin has been held back in fantasy football by his lack of upside in the touchdown department. Hopefully, that changes with Aaron Rodgers. If it does, Conklin could find himself as a back-end TE1. Over the last two combined seasons, Conklin ranks tied for 8th in targets (174), tied for 7th in receptions (119), and he’s 10th in receiving yards (1,173) among tight ends. He’s scored just 3 TDs across these 34 games, though. He’s seen just seven end-zone targets in this span because the Jets were rarely in the red zone.

According to the DraftKings lookahead lines, New York ranks 13th in implied points per game (23.7), just two-tenths of a point behind the Los Angeles Rams (23.9).

Noah Fant (Rank 165 | ADP 179)

Over the last two seasons in Seattle, Fant has subsided into fantasy irrelevance as a part of a committee with Will Dissly and Colby Parkinson. He’s averaged just 26.5 yards per game as a Seahawk. Dissly and Parkinson are now in different homes now, though. The only player on the roster that is capable of taking snaps from Fant now is blocking TE Pharaoh Brown.

Last year, Fant ranked a lowly 32nd in route share (47%) among tight ends. Two years ago, Fant was 29th in route share (51%). That’s set to spike. We’re projecting Fant to rank 18th in route share this season.

A larger role in a new vertical passing attack under OC Ryan Grubb could be pretty interesting for Fant. Since 2019, he ranks tied for 6th with Kyle Pitts in yards per target (7.9) among the 23 tight ends with at least 250 looks in this span. This trails only George Kittle (10.0 YPT), Travis Kelce (8.9), Dallas Goedert (8.6), Mark Andrews (8.4), and Darren Waller (8.4).

Juwan Johnson (Rank 192 | ADP 212)

Johnson might not end up missing any regular season time at all after mid-June foot surgery. His role has been decent over the last two years after he finished 17th in route share (65%) among TEs in 2022, and he was 21st (61% route share) last year. He has a chance to play even more as the Saints' interior field stretcher after leading the team in slot routes (60%) last season.

Johnson’s 8.6-yard average depth of target was fifth-highest among TEs, and that gives him some intriguing weekly upside if he sustains that mark. Over the last two seasons, he’s finished as a top-10 scorer at the position on DraftKings 27.6% of the time (18th-best).

His ADP (TE28) makes him a strong TE3 target.

Colby Parkinson (Rank 199 | ADP 222)

Shout out to our Editor in Chief Joe Dolan for this call. I’ve had Parkinson ahead of ADP in our best ball rankings all summer thanks to him.

Parkinson has already won the Rams starting tight end job according to Rams beat writer Cameron DaSilva. Parkinson’s contract in free agency was a surprise and might signal a larger role. He got as much guaranteed money ($15.5M) in his contract as Hunter Henry ($15.8) per Over The Cap. Tyler Higbee (knee) will likely start the season on PUP and may not be able to return to the field until midseason. Higbee is 31 years old and will be nine months removed from surgery on his ACL/MCL in November. We’re targeting Stafford, so we’re in on Parkinson as a last round TE3 target.

Zero RB Heroes

These RBs are all going in Round 13 or later. They need an injury or to outplay the starter in front of them to become fantasy-relevant values. We’re ahead of ADP on these players due to their contingent upside.

Ty Chandler (Rank 135 | ADP 148)

Tyler Allgeier (Rank 139 | ADP 153)

Ray Davis (Rank 151 | ADP 172)

Jaylen Wright (Rank 150 | ADP 165)

Khalil Herbert (Rank 163 | ADP 181)

Marshawn Lloyd (Rank 164 | ADP 182)

Tyrone Tracy (Rank 167 | ADP 183)

Audric Estime (Rank 178 | ADP 204)

Jordan Mason (Rank 198 | ADP 224)

Justice Hill (Rank 209 | ADP 216)

D’Onta Foreman (Rank 210 | ADP 225)

Trey Sermon (Rank 211 | ADP 229)

Late Round Wide Receivers Darts

These are the wideouts we have ranked significantly ahead of ADP in Rounds 17-20.

Luke McCaffrey (Rank 176 | ADP 191)

Andrei Iosivas (Rank 186 | ADP 210)

Greg Dortch (Rank 192 | ADP 206)