For a massive undertaking like Fantasy Points Data, we need a large team of dedicated and educated charting professionals to ensure that our statistics can be posted on the website accurately and quickly.
While the data-charting process is, by nature, objective, our team will form opinions about what they saw, given we have to watch every play multiple times.
Every week, we’ll select the most notable observations and back them up with the objective data we’ve become known for.
Here are our top observations for 2024 NFL Week 15.
Week 15 Data Charter Observations
1. “Mahomes was seemingly under duress all day long, with the offensive line failing to keep a clean pocket and a ton of pressure from the interior forcing quick, short throws. Xavier Worthy benefitted from turning into formational eye candy. He moved around all over the field, continuously going in motion on reverse type fakes and obviously getting some carries in this fashion, and bubble screens (which end up being running plays because it's a lateral pass).”
The Chiefs eased their way to their 13th victory of the season, beating the Browns by a score of 21-7. Rookie QR Xavier Worthy led the way offensively with 76 total yards and 1 touchdown. Worthy was a bit inefficient, hauling in just 6 out of 11 targets, including 2 drops and a 1.28 YPRR. Play calling was encouraging for Worthy as he posted a 39.1% 1READ% and a 21-yard rushing touchdown on a bubble screen that ended up counting as a run.
However, the headline coming out of this game offensively is the woes along the offensive line continued to be a problem. QB Patrick Mahomes was under constant pressure, seeing a whopping 17 QB Pressures while picking up an ankle injury that knocked him from the game. Mahomes was efficient in the first half with 112 yards and 2 touchdowns, but slowed down in the second half finishing with 159 yards for the game, due in part to the injury. Mahomes’ health will be tested as the Chiefs have quick turnarounds with a home game against the Texans in Week 16, followed by a Christmas Day visit to Pittsburgh against the Steelers in Week 17.
2. “The Eagles made a point to run a quick-tempo offense out of the gate and feed AJ Brown early. This helped them overcome a couple of early miscues and still jump out to an early lead. When Philly needed it, the Steelers could not get a stop. Saquon Barkley and Kenneth Gainwell were breaking tackles, Jalen Hurts found AJ Brown and DeVonta Smith for critical 1st downs, and a couple of Brotherly Shoves kept the chains moving.”
In one of the marquee matchups of Week 15, the Eagles grinded out their 10th straight win in a 27-13 win over the Steelers. Much was made of the lack of production from QB Jalen Hurts and the Eagles’ passing game in the week leading up to Week 15. Any concerns were answered with resounding results, as Hurts threw for 290 yards and 2 scores on an efficient 25 of 32 passing. WRs AJ Brown and DeVonta Smith were unstoppable all game, each turning over 100 yards and a touchdown, combining for a 19/219/2 stat line. The target distribution for this offense was extremely condensed, as the tandem earned 68.8% of the target share and 90.5% of the first-read targets. The Eagles will look to wrap up the NFC East as they take on the Commanders, who just activated CB Marshon Lattimore to help with their improved pass defense.
3. “The Vikings offense left points out on that field. Sam Darnold was just a bit off on his throws, missing a few open receivers, and Justin Jefferson had a big drop on a corner route that would have been an easy touchdown. He absolutely twisted around the defensive back on the route.”
The Vikings improved to 12-2 on the season following a 30-12 home victory over the struggling Bears. QB Sam Darnold managed the game well enough, throwing for 231 yards with 1 touchdown and 1 interception, but was a bit inefficient with just a 4.52 ANY/A and 5.0% TWT%. WR Justin Jefferson posted a modest 7 catches for 73 yards and a score while continuing to be unrecoverable by posting a 0.175 ASS on the week.
The Bears represented an easier challenge as their defense has been sliding during their losing streak, but the Vikings close the season with a critical stretch of games against playoff teams. Up next is the Seahawks, who have been middling against the pass, ranking 15th in passing yards allowed on the season at 230.6 YDS/G allowed.
4. “When Caleb Williams begins to panic, or question what he sees, he has a tendency to flip his hips parallel to the line of scrimmage, and it's at this moment that he is going off script. When this happens, all you can do is hold your breath. He truly needs to work on stepping up and working through his progressions, but when the hips flip, it's time for backyard football.”
QB Caleb Williams’ rookie season continues to spiral downward as the Bears fell to 4-10 in the aforementioned 30-12 loss to the Vikings. Williams has reverted to the early season issues that plagued the Bears ' offense after a couple of better games when interim HC Thomas Brown took over the play calling. Initially, with Brown controlling the offense, Williams was getting rid of the ball and making easy throws. In Week 15, the rookie held the ball for far too long despite throwing behind a porous offensive line, as he averaged 3.14 TTT. As a result, Williams finished with just 191 yards and 1 touchdown as the Bears fell behind and could not find much offense to mount a comeback.
On the season, Bears’ WRs DJ Moore, Keenan Allen, and Rome Odunze all have solid win rates of 12.6%, 14.2%, and 13.0% respectively, so there have been pass catchers open for Williams to connect with. Despite the success on routes from his receivers, Williams has been missing too many reads and tends to extend plays instead of giving his receivers a chance. The Bears host the Lions in Week 16 in a matchup where the Lions enter with a mountain of injured players on defense.
5. “More of the same for Josh Allen. He’s unstoppable right now. His throw to Keon Coleman on the run is just something not many quarterbacks can do. Allen just gets so many different players involved that it’s too much to account for.”
QB Josh Allen all but wrapped up the MVP race with a monstrous performance in the Bills 48-42 win over the Lions. With the Lions’ defense entering with multiple injuries, Allen took full advantage throwing for 362 yards and 2 touchdowns to go along with 68 yards and 2 more touchdowns on the ground. Easily his most impressive play came on a scramble where Allen broke the pocket before uncorking a long ball to WR Keon Coleman for a 64-yard gain.
RB James Cook displayed his big play ability with a 28-yard catch and a 41-yard touchdown run leading to 133 total yards and 2 touchdowns. Cook is an excellent complement to Allen’s elite play as he gives the Bills’ offense another dimension to threaten opposing defenses with. The Bills finish the season against struggling defenses as they square off with the Patriots twice, with the Jets sandwiched in the middle.
6. “Anthony Richardson’s best throws seem to come across the middle, on post/deep crossing routes. Early in this game, he made two phenomenal throws hitting his receivers in stride across the middle in between zone defenders, it was a thing of beauty. But then his outside-the-numbers accuracy continues to be a struggle.”
The Colts’ playoff hopes took a severe blow as they fell to the team they are chasing in a 31-13 loss to the Broncos. QB Anthony Richardson had another dismal passing performance, posting 17 completions on 38 attempts for 172 yards and 2 interceptions while registering poor numbers in -15.3% CPOE, 54.3% ADJ COMP%, and 31.6% OFF%. Given his erratic throwing accuracy, Richardson is better off targeting the middle of the field as he completed 7 out of 8 passes for 104 yards on such throws. In contrast, he completed just 10 out of 30 passes for 68 yards and both interceptions on passes not directed to the middle. Simply put, Richardson has struggled mightily with accuracy this season and needs to work on throwing outside the numbers. The Colts finish the season with a favorable schedule for a shot at the playoffs against the Titans, Giants, and Jaguars, who have combined for just 8 wins on the season.
7. “Tua Tagovailoa looked terrible. Everything was underneath, and he threw a couple of bad interceptions. The interception at the end of the first half was just a terrible read where he never saw the safety. I wonder if Tyreek Hill is more injured than he’s led on. The connection Hill and Tua had in previous years is among the missing this year.”
Needing a win to give themselves a shot at the playoffs, the Dolphins struggled offensively en route to a 20-12 loss in a crucial game against the Texans. After seemingly hitting a hot streak with three straight 300-yard passing games, QB Tua Tagovailoa posted a dud performance with 196 yards and 3 interceptions to just 1 touchdown in Week 15. Tua has been heavily focusing on short passes this season, and this game was a continuation of that as he averaged a lowly 4.7 aDOT and 2.5% Deep Throw %.
Where Tua’s conservative play style has really hurt the Dolphins is in the production from WR Tyreek Hill. Hill caught a league-high 795 yards on targets of 20+ yards downfield in 2023, but this season has just 159 yards on deep targets. With their season in the balance, the Dolphins host the 49ers, who have allowed the fewest passing yards this season (2,716).
Bonus Observations
Chiefs RB Isiah Pacheco — Pacheco seems to be getting eased back into the game plan. He looks like the thunderous churner he was pre-injury. Maybe not as quick, but he was never Uber explosive anyway. The Chiefs seem content on a rotation for now, but Pacheco is a grinder. The more work he gets, the better he will be. It may not be until the postseason. Pacheco’s snap share since returning from injury has remained modest at 32.8%> 47.7> 37.3% over the past three games, but he understandably appears to be still recovering from the broken leg. He has forced just 3 missed tackles on 34 attempts while averaging 1.74 YACO/ATT.
Ravens WR Rashod Bateman — Bateman needs to get more credit for his ability to add a different dimension to this Ravens offense. There are numerous highlight reels this season of Bateman using his tremendous route running deep down the field, where he gets the defensive backs to bite in one direction, completely turning them around the opposite way. He did it again on his deep corner route touchdown. The way he can get open downfield is oftentimes comical in his setup and separation. Bateman has continued to be an ASS god posting an excellent score of 0.171 on the season to go along with career highs in receiving yards (654) and touchdowns (7).
Giants RB Tyrone Tracy — Tracy is showing exceptional vision for a rookie running back with a weak offensive line, let alone a rookie who spent most of his career as a wide receiver. So the fact he's had 3 drops in the past two weeks is something worth discussing because most of the drops are in the flats on simple routes. Tracy has played well in his rookie season as he approached 1,000 total yards despite not seeing a full snap share until Week 5. An area that surprisingly has been a problem is Tracy is now up to 6 drops (3rd most among RBs) on the season.
