“Rhymes so loud and proud, you hear it
It's Christmastime, and we got the spirit
Jack Frost chillin', the orchids out
And that's what Christmas is all about
The time is now; the place is here
And the whole wide world is filled with cheer.”
“Christmas in Hollis” — Run-DMC
We’re talking about the Final Four, but not college basketball. It’s the semi-final weekend of fantasy football, and there has never been a better time to get the plays right. That’s my goal here. It’s great to get the most points out of your low-owned defense (I see you, Atlanta), but we just want anything above average. With our data and the luck of the fantasy gods, I know we can get there one more time.
Don’t be afraid to carry two defenses at this point. Having a great matchup stashed on your bench can be advantageous and blocking your opponent from playing them can be equally as valuable.
We want to focus on high-leverage spots where the DST will press the quarterback and force sacks and turnovers. We key on bad lines, play-callers, and quarterbacks. That said, how did we do last week?
Let’s look back at Week 15’s results from my top 5 adds.
- Washington: 6 pts
- Atlanta: 20 pts
- NY Jets: 6 pts
- Arizona: 5 pts
- Cincinnati: 19 pts
I nailed two of the top five plays of the entire week (hooray me!). Our other three plays weren’t spectacular, albeit they weren’t zeroes either. Ten teams scored under five points in Week 15. I’m glad we stayed above that fray.
DST ownership based on Yahoo league percentages under 50%
DRAKE’S TOP 7 DST ADDS FOR WEEK 16
- Green Bay vs NO
- Atlanta vs NYG
- Cincinnati vs CLE
- Indianapolis vs TEN
- Jacksonville @ LV
- Arizona @ CAR
- Las Vegas vs JAX
Higher-owned Options
Buffalo Bills (BUF, 76%) — OK, the Bills are owned in 76% of Yahoo leagues, but that means there’s nearly a quarter of them where they aren’t (I’m looking at one right now). The Bills were dropped because of their back-to-back matchups with the Rams and Lions. If available, I’m all for adding Buffalo, as they’ll head home to face the Patriots, who allow the sixth most points to opposing DSTs.
San Francisco 49ers (SF, 73%) — Facing the Dolphins, it’s hard to know which team will show up on either side of the ball. Miami could look like a world-beater with Olympic track speed or total JAGS. The Niners are a MASH unit coming off an embarrassing loss in the rain to the Rams. This is a game of pride for San Francisco. After last week’s De’Vondre Campbell situation, I believe this unit is out to prove they aren’t a laughing stock. They aren’t my first choice, but they are high-owned. Miami did just allow 15 points to Houston, thanks to four turnovers. Also, note Miami is dealing with injuries to both starting offensive tackles.
Top Targets
Green Bay Packers (GB, 50%) — What’s not to like about a team coming off of a seven-sack and two-turnover performance? Wait, you’re telling me that the same team gets to play Spencer Rattler at home in 18-degree conditions? Sign. Me. Up. The Packers have 13 sacks over their last three games. Only Dallas has more in that same stretch. It’s unlikely Alvin Kamara will be able to suit up on Monday night. Green Bay is my top add of the week.
Atlanta Falcons (ATL, 38%) — Hopefully, you added Atlanta last week and rode their 20-point burst to the semi-finals. There were four sacks, two interceptions, and two blocked kicks in their Monday night snoozefest. If only the “Other” Birds could’ve scooped and scored on one of them, it would’ve been an even bigger day. Sunday, Atlanta welcomes the Giants to town. I just finished the John Gotti documentary on Netflix, and honestly, he would’ve put this team out of its misery weeks ago. Even made-man Tommy DeVito won’t be able to stop the hit that Matthew Judon and his crew have coming for whatever future fish food that New York rolls out at quarterback.
Cincinnati Bengals (CIN, 39%) — We’re going back to the well with Cincy thanks to their comedic schedule. If you streamed the Bengals last week, you likely advanced thanks to their 19-point showing against the Will Levis nightmare factory. This week, it’s Dorian Thompson-Robinson and the Browns. So, no Nick Chubb, and now the third quarterback of the season for the wayward Browns. Cool. DTR threw two interceptions last week on 24 attempts. He was also sacked three times. This isn’t hard, folks.
Targeting Against Awful Offenses/Quarterbacks
Indianapolis Colts (IND, 22%) — If you want a two-week add, the Colts are it. Tennessee in Week 16 and the New York Giants in championship week. Giddy up. As I often do, I caution that this isn’t a great real-life defense. This is simply about matchups. Indy has allowed 20+ points in seven straight. But, over their last two, they are fourth-best in QB rating allowed at just 61.4%. Mason Rudolph starts for Tennesee, who allows the most points to the opponent's DST. He’s no Will Levis (God, isn’t that cruel), but he’s not exactly Steve McNair in his prime, either.
Houston Texans (HOU, 47%) — Carson Wentz. That’s the story. If Patrick Mahomes sits, I’m all in. Fire up the Houston, who turned Miami over four times last week. KC has below-average offensive tackles, which would create a field day for Will Anderson and friends without Superman under center. (Note: Mahomes was a full participant in Monday’s practice.)
Arizona Cardinals (ARI, 38%) — I’ve given out Arizona two weeks in a row only to be underwhelmed. Sunday, they’ll visit the Panthers, who gave up six sacks and two interceptions to Dallas. It was the first game since Week 7 where a DST scored over seven points on the Panthers. Proceed with caution.
Las Vegas Raiders (LV, 4%) — The Raiders without Maxx Crosby, yikes. Maybe I should skip this blurb and take my kids to dinner. Well, for total sickos, the Raiders defense faces Mac Jones, who literally is incapable of playing turnover-free football. This might be best for the DFS tournament bros, but if you’re desperate, It’s two horrendous teams, and someone is likely throwing a pick-six (or two.)
Deep Cuts
Dallas Cowboys (DAL, 38%) — What else can you say about a unit that, over the past month, has 18 sacks and six interceptions? This Bucs offense just made the Chargers look foolish and dropped 40 on them. Before that, though, Mayfield had back-to-back games with four sacks and turn picks. It’s not crazy to think that Dallas at home could cause Tampa Bay some issues.
Detroit Lions (DET, 64%) — I’m preaching caution to those rostering Detriot. Anyone who’s ever played for, visited, or flown over Detroit is now on injured reserve. I can’t see where the Lions find pressure to speed up Caleb Williams. Over their last two games, Detroit has allowed 76 points and managed one QB sack. Look elsewhere.
Who To Stream Against In The Playoffs?
We want to target a few teams with below-average QBs and offensive lines. So, instead of listing teams to add, let’s look at who to stream against. This way, you can plan ahead and possibly add multiple defenses. Here are the top teams regarding points allowed to the opposing DST and their remaining playoff schedule.
Tennessee: @ IND, @ JAX
Cleveland: @ CIN, MIA
NY Giants: @ ATL, IND
Las Vegas: JAX, @ NO
New England: @ BUF, LAC
Seattle: MIN, @ CHI
Chicago: DET, SEA
Miami: SF, @ CLE
Atlanta: NYG, @ WAS
New Orleans: @ GB, LV
Jacksonville: @ LV, TEN
DFS Tournament Options (DraftKings):
Bears $2200 vs DET - The Bears stink. This isn’t breaking news. The play here is potential low ownership against Jared Goff playing on the road. In Goff’s last three road games, three touchdowns, five interceptions, six sacks, and he’s averaged 218 passing yards.
Giants $2400 @ ATL - Michael Penix will get his first NFL start. We’ll see how much the Falcons want to put on his plate. This is obviously for GPP lineups, not cash.
Titans $2600 vs IND - Surprisingly, Tennessee has seven interceptions over their last four games. They’ll face Anthony Richardson, who has four picks over his last two starts.
Jaguars $2900 @ LV - I love this spot for Jacksonville. All of the Raiders QBs stink. They just gave up 20 points to the Falcons DST.
Colts $3000 vs TEN - Every DST scores on the Titans. I don’t care who the QB is. I’d note that lots of folks might click this play. The Colts aren’t really that good, and for 3K, you can probably find a better team.
Bengals $3300 vs CLE - We’re getting pricey now. Depending on your build, it’s sometimes hard to find this much leftover for defense. Cincy has recorded nine turnovers in their past three games. I’m sure they’ll snag a few more vs DTR on Sunday.
Vikings $3500 @ SEA - Third most expensive DST, and with good reason. We’re going to see Sam Howell under center for Seattle. Last week, Howell dropped back just 14 times, and on those attempts, he was sacked four times and thrown an interception.
Bills $3600 vs NE - Another cash option. Buffalo returns home to face a Pats unit that has turnovers in six straight. This game has a pick-six written all over it.
Falcons $3700 vs NYG - I never want to pay for the most expensive defense, but I'm all-in versus the Giants in cash or if my build allows it. See notes above.
