“But it's been no bed of roses
No pleasure cruise
I consider it a challenge before the whole human race
And I ain't gonna lose.”
“We are the Champions” — Queen
If you’re reading this, you’re either in the fantasy championship game, or you’re my mother (Hi, Mom). Either way, thanks for going on this journey with me and the rest of the Fantasy Points readers all season. It’s an honor to write for the single best fantasy football site in America. Thank you for reading and asking questions each week. Now that we’ve come this far, there’s only one last thing to do. Win the whole F#_K$N thing!
Don’t be afraid to carry two defenses at this point. Hell, carry five. It doesn’t matter. Handcuff running backs aren’t worth a roster spot anymore. Blocking your opponent from having elite options to play against you is. If I had the room, I’d add every viable DST on the wire so my opponent had to start a lesser option. Look at it this way: Blake Corum isn’t winning a championship for you or your opponent. The Colts defense, on the other hand, just might. I know it’s the Christmas season, but it’s time to be greedy.
We want to focus on high-leverage spots where the DST will press the quarterback and force sacks and turnovers. We key on bad lines, play-callers, and quarterbacks. That said, how did we do last week?
Let’s look back at Week 16’s results from my top 7 adds.
- Green Bay: 17 pts
- Atlanta: 25 pts
- Cincinnati: 18 pts
- Indianapolis: 6 pts
- Jacksonville: 3 pts
- Arizona: -1 pts
- Las Vegas: 6pts
It was a top-heavy week, and we hit the nuts. The top three scoring DSTs in Week 16 were my top three adds. If you had to drop down below my top three options, it wasn’t great. Then again, only five teams scored double-digits this week. I can confidently say I won’t be offering up the Cardinals' defense again anytime soon. Woof. That said, I want to also be aware of teams who have something to play for.
The following teams can clinch a playoff spot in Week 17: ATL, DEN, LAC, LAR, WAS.
The following teams can be eliminated in Week 17: CIN, IND, MIA, SEA, TB.
DST ownership based on Yahoo league percentages under 50%
DRAKE’S TOP 5 DST ADDS FOR WEEK 17
- Miami @ CLE
- Las Vegas vs NO
- Indianapolis @ NYG
- Seattle @ CHI
- LA Chargers @ NE
- Tampa Bay vs CAR
- Dallas @ PHI (Pending Jalen Hurts status)
Higher-owned Options
Baltimore Ravens (BAL, 78%) — The Ravens are highly owned based on name alone. Their performance in 2024 hasn’t been anything to write home about. They have just two weeks with double-digit fantasy points. If you need them this week, I can sign off versus Houston. Baltimore hasn’t allowed over 17 points since their Week 14 bye. With three sacks and a turnover in each other in their last two games, they seem to be coming on. Houston is struggling to run the ball behind a banged-up OL (Shaq Mason, knee), and their WR corps is severely depleted with Tank Dell going on IR.
Top Targets
Miami Dolphins (MIA, 47%) — Three letters: D-T-R. The new Browns quarterback is a disaster. Thanks to Thompson-Robinson’s efforts, the Browns now allow the most fantasy points to opposing defenses. I do caution Miami traveling into colder weather, but the matchup is too good to ignore. Miami can pressure the quarterback (ten sacks over the last three games), and Cleveland has allowed 13 in that same span. The Browns offense has scored 13 points in two weeks. They’ve turned the ball over nine times in those games.
Las Vegas Raiders (LV, 10%) — Did you watch the Saints on Monday Night? This is a high school team. Spencer Rattler is awful. Starting center Erik McCoy was lost with an elbow injury for New Orleans as well. The Raiders aren’t great, so let’s not create some narrative that this is Howie Long and a shutdown unit, but Vegas has allowed just 27 points in two weeks. Anyone with a silver helmet should be excited to line up against the Saints, who have thrown a pick in three straight and have absolutely zero weapons.
Indianapolis Colts (IND, 48%) — It wasn’t the best showing for these Colts against the Mason Rudolph-led Titans. Only six fantasy points on a day when they recorded three interceptions, thanks to 30 points allowed. I have incredible confidence that the Giants will not score 30 points. Why? They haven’t gone over 23 points all year. New York allows the third most points to opposing defenses thanks to completely inept quarterback play. Last week, Drew Lock threw a pair of pick-sixes en route to a 25-point Falcons DST scoring day. I like the Colts to be solid, but I’m not going overboard with my expectations.
Targeting Against Awful Offenses/Quarterbacks
Seattle Seahawks (SEA, 20%) — Another mid-level matchup. Seattle is coming off back-to-back clunkers, but anytime you face the dumpster fire, that is the Chicago Bears organization, and you must give notice. Seattle has only created one turnover in two weeks, and surprisingly, Caleb Williams has not thrown a pick since Week 6. It's not my favorite play by any means, but there’s always a chance Williams will take all of the sacks in Santa’s workshop.
Los Angeles Chargers (LAC, 44%) — This is easy. Drake Maye has thrown an interception in seven straight games. If he continues that streak, there’s a chance for fantasy goodness in Los Angeles’ stocking. I’d expect the Chargers to garner more pressure than they have of late, considering their tough late-season schedule. New England allows the sixth most points to opposing fantasy defenses.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (TB, 44%) — Another defense that isn’t great in real life, but they are at home in a game they have to win. Carolina isn’t as bad as everyone thinks. Only one defense (Dallas) has scored double-digit fantasy points against the Panthers from Week 8 on. It’s not a play I’m hinging my season on, but in a week where so many DST plays are on the road, sometimes it’s comforting to play a home team with their backs to the wall.
Deep Cuts
Dallas Cowboys (DAL, 36%) — This hinges on Jalen Hurts (concussion) status. If Hurts can’t clear the protocol, I’m all-in on the Dallas defense against Kenny Pickett. The Cowboys will sell out to stop the run, and tiny-hands Pickett will be forced to make plays in the passing game (good luck). Dallas, over the last two weeks, has ten sacks and six takeaways.
Jacksonville Jaguars (JAX, 10%) — For those who ask about the weekly Titans opponent, it’s Jacksonville. Here’s the problem, they suck. The Jags haven’t forced a turnover since Week 10. The Titans are always in the giving spirit, with seven thrown interceptions in their last two. You’ve gotta have some brass balls to play the Jags in a league championship game, but I understand if you’re a big underdog and want to swing for the fences.
Washington Commanders (WAS 35%) — Rookie QB Michael Penix could be without his top target Drake London (hamstring), so he’ll be airing it out to Darnell Mooney and Ray-Ray McCloud with the ghost of tight ends past, Kyle Pitts haunting losers bracket teams over the middle. It wouldn’t shock me if Dan Quinn dials up some looks to confuse Penix, who, per Fantasy Points Data, had a 0.0% turnover-worthy throw rate and wasn’t sacked once on nine pressures last week.
