“Step into a new day
We can rise up from the dust and walk away
We can dance upon the heartache, yeah
So light a match, leave the past, burn the ships
And don't you look back.”
“Burn The Ships” - for King + Country
This week often shows who is paying attention and who isn’t. With a holiday on Thursday (and three games), a Black Friday showdown, and no one on bye, some owners will slack off and simply run out last week's DST. Don’t be that guy.
We also can’t simply look at the name and assume they are good plays based on reputation. Many teams stink as a DST play but have massive ownership because of their name (cough, Baltimore, cough, San Francisco). It’s time to zero in on matchups for this week and the rest of the fantasy season.
Over the last two weeks, I have provided my blueprint for who to add for the rest of the season. As the lyrics this week imply, we have to move on and can’t stand still if we want to win a fantasy championship.
We want to focus on high-leverage spots where the DST will press the quarterback and force sacks and turnovers. We key on bad lines, play-callers, and quarterbacks. That said, how did we do last week?
Let’s look back at Week 12’s results from my top 5 adds.
- Tampa Bay - 10 points
- Washington - 4 points
- Arizona - 11 points
- Denver - 9 points
- Chicago - 4 points
A solid week of calls. We had the Brock Purdy news break late in the week, putting Green Bay on the streaming radar. They would’ve made my list at just 48% ownership. Six of the top 10 defenses in Week 12 were under 50% ownership on Yahoo. If that doesn’t scream that streaming is the way to play fantasy defenses, I don’t know what does.
WEEK 13 BYES: None (Hooray!)
DST ownership based on Yahoo league percentages
DRAKE’S TOP 5 DST ADDS FOR WEEK 13:
- Dallas (29%) vs NYG
- Washington (63%) vs TEN
- Tampa Bay (54%) @ CAR
- Arizona (16%) @ MIN
- Indianapolis (11%) @ NE
BONUS: Watch the status of Brock Purdy vs Buffalo (63%)
Higher-owned Options
Washington Commanders (WAS, 63%) — If you’ve read this article, you know that Will Levis has to make an appearance. He’s like our unofficial sidekick, which means the joke is typically on him. Levis looked “better” in Tennessee’s Week 12 win. He threw for 278 yards and two touchdowns, but in classic Levis fashion, he took eight sacks and threw a pick-six. That’s the name of the game here. The Titans line is a joke. They’ll allow more sacks than beers you’ll drink on Thursday.
Top Targets
Dallas Cowboys (DAL, 29%) — I’m sorry that you and your family will have to sit through this awful matchup. Dallas wrecking the Giants on nearly every snap will help keep you from the tryptophan-induced coma. I give Dallas a lot of credit for playing with heart at Washington on Sunday. They forced four sacks and collected three turnovers. Not to mention the two kicks they returned for scores. This Giants line stinks. The New Jersey Don, Tommy DeVito, was sacked four times but felt pressure all day. Micah Parsons and friends will feast on the sad sack G-Men. You’ll be having sweet dreams of a monster DST performance by halftime.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (TB, 54%) — I’ve pushed the Bucs for two weeks, and they’ve come through both times. Now they’ll face a Panthers team who just pushed the Chiefs to the brink. Bryce Young is playing football better these days. That doesn’t mean he’s not mistake-prone. This is a sneaky spot, though. Carolina has allowed just four sacks over their last three games. Tampa lost safety Jordan Whitehead for the year to a pectoral injury. Newly signed Mike Edwards will have to step up in his absence. This isn’t my favorite play, but it’s not one I’d be scared of. Tampa can push the pace and force Carolina into lots of second-half dropbacks, which should lead to turnover opportunities.
Arizona Cardinals (ARI, 16%) — I recommended Arizona as someone to add for the foreseeable future, and they came through with 11 points on Sunday. This spot against Minnesota is tricky as the Vikings have surrendered just eight total points to opposing defenses over their last two games. However, they still rank as a top-10 matchup for DSTs on the year. Arizona forced five sacks and a turnover last Sunday in a losing effort. A major storyline will be the health of Vikings left tackle Cam Robinson, who left Sunday’s game with a foot injury and was quickly ruled out. If he can’t play (or is hobbled), I like the Arizona pass rush to pressure Sam Darnold into sacks and turnovers.
Targeting Against Awful Offenses
Indianapolis Colts (IND, 11%) — The Colts aren’t good. I don’t mince words. But their opponent, New England, is straight-up trash. This is a total punt play because all the other good defenses are owned. New England is seventh in points allowed to opposing defenses. Three of their last four opponents have scored at least nine fantasy points. Despite Drake Maye playing inspired football, he still takes sacks (four on Sunday) and has thrown at least one interception in every game since Week 9. This might be a nice DFS play as well.
Looking Ahead To Week 14 (Fantasy Regular Season Finale)
Miami vs Jets
New Orleans @ Giants
Tampa Bay vs Raiders
Jacksonville @ Titans
Cincinnati @ Cowboys
Buffalo @ Rams
Philadelphia vs Panthers
