“I will go in this way
And find my own way out.
I won't tell you to be here
But it's coming to much more.”
“#41” - Dave Matthews Band
As my friend and Fantasy Points colleague Joe Dolan says, “It’s nut-cuttin’ time.”
The final week of the fantasy football season is upon us. Week 14 provides “must-win” scenarios for so many of us, and we also have to navigate six teams going on BYE. I believe that smart owners in your leagues (and I hope you’re one of them) will also be adding a defense as they look ahead to the fantasy playoffs. So, this stands to be a very busy week on the waiver wire for fantasy defenses. Here’s the problem: there are a ton of awful matchups this week. I’ll do my best to prepare you for a fake football battle. Follow me into the fire. Let’s clinch a playoff berth!
We want to focus on high-leverage spots where the DST will press the quarterback and force sacks and turnovers. We key on bad lines, play-callers, and quarterbacks. That said, how did we do last week?
Let’s look back at Week 13’s results from my top 5 adds.
- Dallas - 17 pts
- Washington - 7 pts
- Tampa Bay - 3 pts
- Arizona - 7 pts
- Indianapolis - 6 pts
A mixed bag of results. Some of the week’s biggest winners were calls I didn’t make (Chargers, Jets, Seahawks), and all scored DST touchdowns. The Jets and Seahawks were top-five units while playing against each other. That’s insane, but also, it’s fantasy. Those are fluky and impossible to account for, but that’s what we’re trying to nail each week. Let’s find a Week 14 winner and some fantasy playoff stashes. I’m going to give my takes on more defenses than usual due to the poor matchups and BYE week blues.
WEEK 14 BYES: Broncos, Colts, Commanders, Patriots, Ravens, Texans
DST ownership based on Yahoo league percentages
DRAKE’S TOP 5 DST ADDS FOR WEEK 13
- Arizona vs SEA
- Seattle @ ARI
- Los Angeles Chargers @ KC
- Dallas vs CIN
- New Orleans @ NYG
Higher-owned Options
Dallas Cowboys (DAL, 66%) — Don’t look now, but the Cowboys DST has scored 17 and 22 points over their last two games. They’ve accounted for ten sacks and five turnovers in the stretch. Week 14’s opponent, Cincinnati, is typically stingy to DSTs but did give up four sacks, three turnovers, and a score to the Steelers on Sunday. With the Bengals' own defense unable to stop anyone, it’s not hard to think Burrow will drop back 40+ times on Monday.
Top Targets
Arizona Cardinals (ARI, 16%) — This Cards defense has 10 sacks in the last two weeks and 19 in its last four games. A home date with Seattle is pretty solid, as the Seahawks give up the fifth most points to opposing DSTs. Three of Seattle’s past four foes have hit double-digits. Geno Smith has taken 19 sacks in his last four games. This is as good as you’ll get in terms of streaming with your season on the line. Looking ahead, Arizona will play New England, Carolina, and the LA Rams to close out the fantasy playoffs.
Los Angeles Chargers (LAC, 38%) — Recommending a defense against the Chiefs, have I gone mad? Nope. Rather, KC has just gone bad. Mahomes has been sacked five times each over his last two games. The Chiefs' tackles are straight-up trash. Back in Week 4, these Chargers got to Mahomes three times and scored eight points. KC is worse now. This Chargers DST is coming off of a 19-point performance in which they picked off Kirk Cousins four times. Of all the bad teams on the wire, the Chargers at least boast some talent. I’m fine with them this week.
Seattle Seahawks (SEA, 22%) — It’s hard to dominate a team two times in three weeks, but that’s what Seattle will try to do vs Arizona on Sunday. Back in Week 11, this unit scored 20 fantasy points thanks to allowing just six points, sacking Kyler Murray five times, and returning a pick for a touchdown. I’m buying Seattle, which has scored 34 points in their last two outings.
If You’re Desperate
Chicago Bears (CHI, 42%) — If you want a unit to score four points, add the Bears. They’ve scored that exact amount in four consecutive weeks. Good or bad, the matchups don’t really matter, as the Bears haven’t forced more than one turnover in a game since Week 9. They haven’t scored a defensive touchdown since their opener. If you want to try to exploit a 49ers team that has holes along its offensive line and is down to its third-string running back, Chicago is the team for you.
Miami Dolphins (TB, 44%) — It’s not often I give the nod to a team coming off a negative point performance, but they’ll face a Jets offense that just lost its starting left tackle and finds a new way to lose weekly. Last week, Seattle had a pick-six on Aaron Rodgers, which made its day. If the Dolphins can rush the passer and push the pace, they can force some mistakes out of Rodgers.
Targeting Against Awful Offenses
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (TB, 53%) — I was let down by the Bucs in Week 13. They only forced one sack of Bryce Young (who’s improved a ton). This week, it’s Aiden O’Connell and the Raiders heading to the Sunshine State for a game that I believe shoots out. Vegas, on the season, ranks second in points allowed to DSTs. If Baker Mayfield can push the pace, I think we get 35 dropbacks again from AOC. He looked sharp at Arrowhead on Black Friday, I’m not sure he’s got back-to-back good showings in him.
New Orleans Saints (NO, 27%) — Here’s a case of a bad defense playing against a brutal offense, and you hope for the best. These Saints haven’t scored double-digit fantasy points since Week 3. Thanks to two sacks of Matthew Stafford, they mustered just two points a week ago. That won’t get it done if we need a big win to lock down a playoff spot. Lucky for us, the Saints will face the completely unserious New York Giants. I’m sure you and your family watched the Cowboys rough up Drew Lock to the tune of six sacks, a fumble recovery, and a pick-six. This game is at MetLife, so the weather could also be in play. I don’t love the Saints, but G-Men allow the fourth-most points per game to opposing DSTs. Five of New York’s last eight opponents have reached double-digits. It’s exactly what you’re looking for in a streamer.
Tennessee Titans (TEN, 5%) — The Titans stink. This is simply a play on Mac Jones, likely starting for the Jaguars. Somehow, the Texans didn’t sack Jones or force him into a turnover. I doubt that carries over to Tennessee this Sunday. This unit was gashed by Jayden Daniels and the Commanders for 463 yards Sunday. I’m looking almost everywhere else, but I’m not doing my job if I don’t recommend a DST versus a poor backup quarterback.
Jacksonville Jaguars (JAX, 4%) — How can we forget our old pal Will Levis? He’s been sacked 22 times over the last four games. His Titans have lost two fumbles in each of the last two weeks. It’s a terrible quarterback playing behind a horrible offensive line on a team that’s basically quit. The only problem, Jacksonville sucks too. Tennessee allows the most points to opposing DSTs.
Looking Ahead To Week 15 (Fantasy Playoffs)
Bengals @ Titans
Ravens @ Giants
Falcons @ Raiders
Patriots @ Cardinals
Jets @ Jaguars
Cowboys @ Panthers
Chiefs @ Browns
Bears @ Vikings
Commanders @ Saints
